Offseason rumors
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No team is going to agree to a 5 year commitment for Montgomery at a 26 AAV with a 1 year opt out
I'd happily give a one year opt out, if that's what it takes, but only 3 guaranteed years. In other words, the Bellinger deal.
Or maybe an opt out that can be voided if the club tacks on a year?
The AAV is probably too high; but I think a long term deal with an opt out after one is what Boras wants. Maybe 5/110 is more realistic.
Cora told the Boston Herald that the meeting Gammons and Olney referenced took place about two weeks ago.
https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/02/26/red-sox-manager-confirms-he-had-zoom-meeting-with-free-agent-jordan-montgomery/
https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/02/26/red-sox-manager-confirms-he-had-zoom-meeting-with-free-agent-jordan-montgomery/
I agree that's what they've wanted. I've been arguing for three off-seasons that it's a bad idea. Too much variance and too little minor league success (or prospect love, for whatever that's worth) to bank on that from this crop. I mean we're not exactly talking Lester, Papelbon and Buchholz.
Fair enough. But the same thing can be said for literally every team in the American League, possibly excepting the A's. I don't expect World Series titles every year, but I also think it's fair to hold the Sox to a higher bar than that of the Guardians or Twins.
But I'm also in the minority in that I would hate it if the Sox were the Rays. Make the playoffs every year. Never win jack. I'd far rather have the Marlins history than Tampa's. Though this goes too far down the road of my belief that the playoffs are less a crapshoot and more a poker tournament.
FWIW, not me. I'll (happily) say that folks like @chawson and @CR67dream were right and that I was wrong. At least based on the assumption that it's a "real" contract. If it's something akin to the Giolito deal, I'd still think the narrative of their refusal to sign long term top of the market FA contracts remains. I very much hope to be "wrong" and that the Sox end up with Monty on something along the lines of 5/$120m.
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I think that the tenor of most people who have been commenting on this offseason is, "They really need to sign Montgomery" or "I hope that they sign Montgomery, he's exactly what this team needs" or "I really would love for them to sign Montgomery".
But I mean, keep creating false narratives and getting mad at things that don't exist.
That's probably what Boras is looking for, but that's also why he's still unsigned - it doesn't seem that any team is willing to offer 5+ years with an opt-out after 1. And an opt-out after 1 (or maybe even 2) doesn't make sense for the Red Sox. I'd go a little higher on the AAV to keep the guarantee at 4 years, with an opt-out after 3 (with a vesting option or two after the 4 years).
What would I be right about? I've been pretty clear (I think) in being unsure of what might happen, and that I'm in wait and see mode. Of course I never expected "wait and see" to go into spring training, but here we are. My only real contention is that there are still a lot of players out there, and until the roster is truly complete, I'm not going to assume the worst or the best.
I'm also a lot happier since the air was cleared after "Full Throttle", and have adjusted my expectations accordingly. I really look forward to seeing this front office finding its identity, and I'm already seeing a lot of things that I interpret very positively for the future, Montgomery or no Montgomery.
I've said for weeks that I'd put 4/110 on the table and dare Boras to laugh it off. Of course it's much more complicated than that, but if that couldn't get negotiations going, then so be it. If he wants opt-outs, guarantees go down. From everything I'm seeing, my starting figure seems like it may even be a little high.
And as far as what people may or may not say when certain things may or may not happen, can we wait until they actually happen to start arguing about it? I don't think anyone who has lost faith wants to be right more than they want the Sox to be as good as realistically possible.
Mostly this (relative to being "right.")
I certainly have assumed the worst since roughly that McAdam article around Christmas that I posted. (The "worst" meaning that they won't acquire a top half of the rotation pitcher for more than a season of team control. If they signed Lorenzen and Duvall I'd personally find that as damning as signing nobody, probably more so.)
I hope they're doing what you've suggested (4/$110m). We'll see.
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I can see a certain degree of it. Some of it good natured, some of it less so. Should Montgomery sign with the Sox, I can see a similar reaction to what we saw from some folks when Raffy was extended. Because of past FA losses they were forced into signing Devers. They only did it because Henry got booed at TWC. They resigned the wrong guy. They could have afforded Betts, Bogaerts and Devers. Etc... We've all seen it and if they sign JM, especially if they don't move anymore payroll, with all of the mixed messaging from ownership/management this season there is likely to be at least a few snarky posts.
I’m not the biggest Montgomery fan, but he’s a solid starter and an innings eater. At this point, I’d be relatively happy with 4/100 with an opt out after year 3.
I might consider more opt outs because I think he’d be very unlikely to exercise them, but it would make me uneasy nonetheless.
Is an opt out after year one that big of a deal breaker for Montgomery? Yes, there is value in it for the player but does he really feel he’ll be able to do better next year, a year older with a qualifying offer attached?
I’m wondering if the structure shakes out more around deferrals. Something like $10M signing bonus, $22M salary for five years ($5M of which is deferred per year), $20 team option with $5M buyout in year 6. So Boras saves a little face and gets to advertise max contract value of $140M (or guaranteed $125M). The team would only be charged roughly $23M per year for CBT purposes because of the deferrals.
I’m wondering if the structure shakes out more around deferrals. Something like $10M signing bonus, $22M salary for five years ($5M of which is deferred per year), $20 team option with $5M buyout in year 6. So Boras saves a little face and gets to advertise max contract value of $140M (or guaranteed $125M). The team would only be charged roughly $23M per year for CBT purposes because of the deferrals.
I haven't read every single post on this site (good lord, I'd be even crazier than I am now) but the vast majority of posts that I've seen on Montgomery is: the Sox know where they need to improve (starting pitching), there is a starting pitcher that is probably in our budget (Montgomery), we should get him. That's pretty much it. I'm not sure why a narrative has to be created where Posters X, Y and Z need to rip every decision. That's not what normally happens around here. I think that most people were very happy about the Devers signing (I've been a big critic of ownership and I was thrilled that they signed him). But there are some downsides, I think and it's okay to talk about them. I think that you have to ask yourself, why do you get annoyed or angry when people criticize the Sox ownership? Are they above being criticized or questioned? If so, why?
I don't expect you to answer those rhetorical questions, you have your reasons, just like I have mine.
As far as "snarky posts", what, exactly, are you expecting here that all posters fall in line and say that they unequivocally love the signing, love the team, love the ownership? With a board this size, with the amount of posts there's never going to be a 100% consensus on anything, ever. I know that 99% of the posters on this board were ecstatically happy about what happened in the 2004 ALCS, but what about jon abbey and other Yankee fans? It wasn't a particularly fun night for them, I'd imagine.
Like CR67 said, let's wait for the transaction to happen and read the reactions of the forum before we start white knighting the ownership, okay?
Well they are working under budget constraints that much is true. What remains to be seen is if Henry will let them spend up to the luxury tax.
I'd go 4yr/90m for JM with an opt out after year 2. Give this pitching-centric new philosophy two years and things could look very different on the pitching front if Breslow's moves to date are any indication. Build in some incentive clauses for JM for innings pitched, starts and Cy Young votes. It's more than what E-Rod got and i look at them as fairly similar. (E-Rod slightly higher ceiling, JM much higher floor).
We're pretty close on our feelings about Monty, and this exactly what I meant by getting negotiations going. If that starting point wouldn't get Boras talking, then I think it's futile and would be time to move on and put it to bed for good.
If they do sign Montgomery, I'll be pleased. But it would be more along the lines of them doing what they should be doing and not something over the top or extra.
What do you think a reasonable deal that will land him looks like? Or is he someone you'd break the bank for? How high do you think they should be willing to go? Honest questions.
I think a reasonable deal, to me, would be 5/125. It would still leave the team underneath the first LTT and I would not go higher than this. It is a solid deal for a pitcher who will provide quality and quantity in terms of IP.
I think you know what the context means this year when it comes to budget constraints.
I've just been thinking, the funniest and most "that's baseball" thing that could happen is we sign Montgomery after this entire offseason of discussion, and then he goes out there and gets his shit absolutely rocked on opening day.
The context, from what I've seen, is that we're on PayrollWatch 2024. It's been made a story that we're not exceeding the CBT — and it's true that it's an aberration, as Speier has covered. But that doesn't necessarily mean that there's a top-down policy shift to cut payroll.
They've adamantly said that there isn't a directive to cut payroll for the sake of it.
For all we know, Kennedy's comments about payroll could be part of the negotiation strategy. Boras and Montgomery ask for $150-175 million, and Breslow's reply is something like, We'd love to see you here, but My hands are tied, best I can do is $110M.
If he, a former pitcher, is the one dealing with Montgomery himself (and he is), that kind of party line allows him to save face and not have to say I absolutely recognize your value and here's what I'm able to offer.
Signing Montgomery changes the offseason to the extent it signals something about the future direction of the team. I like some of the moves this offseason (Verdugo, Giolito, Sale) but not doing more to address your biggest weakness would feel like a significant failure.
This is actually pretty hilarious. Although I think that even if they sign him, he won't be the opening day starter. I'd put my money on Bello or Giolito.
You think he gets the Opening Day nod?
(I assume you're just using that as shorthand for his first start)
I'm trying to remember the last high profile/high expectations off-season pitching acquisition (so not guys signed to 1-year deals) who totally bombed his first start for the Sox. Sale, Price, Lackey, Matsuzaka, Beckett, Schilling, Pedro all made strong first impressions.
Well okay no, he's probably not the opening day starter but that would be the funniest scenario!
If they sign Montgomery the list of pitchers added to the org would be the following.
Jordan Montgomery (ML SP FA)
Lucas Giolito (ML SP FA)
Liam Hendriks (ML RP FA)
Hector Olivarez (mL RP FA)
Greg Weissert (ML / options RP Trade)
Isiah Campbell (ML / options RP Trade)
Justin Slatin (mL RP R5)
Cooper Criswell (SP / options FA)
David Sandlin (mL SP Trade)
Richard Fitts (mL SP Trade)
Nicholas Judice (mL SP/RP Trade)
I doubt an organization has added more arms than the Red Sox this year. You don't have to squint to see what they have worked to accomplish this off season.
I like those arms...I think it sets things up nicely... but a lot of those names we are hoping they reach their potential or that they return to their potential.
Barring some bad injury luck, Montgomery would be a massively stabilizing force for the entire team. Even if he's really more a SP2 than a 1, he's an innings eater - quality innings. This would anchor the rotation and spare the pen. And it would signal the Red Sox are back in business. Man, it would be a consequential signing. Get him.
So, how many times has Cora commented on free agent negotiations? Like, none that I can remember. Maybe some. But I find it pretty unlikely that he actually comments without it being deliberate and approved.
Gammons reported interest and the Sox immediately squelched/minimized it. I think it is a mistake to not view pretty much every public comment that the team has made this offseason as negotiation, at least in a little part.
I made this same observation. It felt very pointed. It’s completely abnormal for a manager to make free agents comments that like.
Either Breslow gave him the green light or he doesn’t give a shit because he knows he’s gone.
It was interesting either way.
Absolutely. We can be certain they have some interest, at some price, otherwise there are no reports at all. Once you are interested in a Boras client, you can sit back and let him play his media games, or you can fight back on them. It seems pretty obvious that they are doing the latter.
That makes sense, yeah. The thing from that report that stuck out to me was that it was two weeks ago. I’d initially read the tweets from Gammons and Olney (who didn’t directly say so) like they’d talked over the weekend or something.
From Tyler Milliken
according to
@ByRobertMurray
, he was told as of this weekend that nothing had changed between the Red Sox and Jordan Montgomery. He pegs the Rangers as a more likely fit if Montgomery ends up settling for a shorter deal.
according to
@ByRobertMurray
, he was told as of this weekend that nothing had changed between the Red Sox and Jordan Montgomery. He pegs the Rangers as a more likely fit if Montgomery ends up settling for a shorter deal.
Home run was the last run he allowed for 20 appearances! One of my favorite players.
Certainly he's the best in the game right now (Passan) but man would it be cold of Boras not to let his employee break that news (Heyman).
I think this is certainly true. Which is why I'm pretty in line with what @RedOctober3829 posted early. I still think it takes around 5/$125m to get Montgomery to Boston, possibly more. I'd also give it to him. But I've been on the "pretty much whatever it takes" train to land him since Nola signed with Philly.
Clearly they shouldn't give him 8/$200m but if he ends up elsewhere at less than $150m, I think that will be a massive miss by the Sox (because I don't think their in house pitching is at all good, and not good enough to frankly have Bailey really matter, I just don't think the talent is there with what they currently have). Same mostly applies to AAA and AA - which is why I think they should pretty much give Montgomery whatever it takes.
The Heyman tweet will be about some guy named Jarren Montgomery. We'll need the Passan tweet for news on Jordan.
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