Other Sox draft picks

[smastroyin]

In the second round with #51, Sox select CJ Chatam, a SS out of FAU.

Chatam is an older (will be 22 in December) college junior who doesn't project much.

Baseball America had him ranked #101.

A product of Fort Lauderdale's American Heritage High (alma mater of such major leaguers as Eric Hosmer and Deven Marrero), Chatham has been a three-year starter for Florida Atlantic, leading the Owls to the regular-season Conference USA title as a junior as he led the league with a 1.017 OPS. His swing can be long but there's leverage in his swing and solid-average power, if not a tick more. He's got a knack for making contact and some grit, having played through a bone chip in his right wrist this spring that caused him to get off to a slow start. Chatham's defense is the subject of debate, as he's tall and rangy for a shortstop at a listed 6-foot-4, 185 pounds. However, he has a true plus arm, solid instincts and feel for the middle infield. He may have to move off it eventually, bu his first-step quickness, game clock and aptitude may allow him to stick at short, at least in the near-term. He's likely to be drafted in the first three rounds.

MLB Pipeline had him better, #63.

As a college junior, he has some negotiating leverage, but I kind of assume this is his high water mark in terms of draft position. i.e. if he goes back for his senior year, he probably won't increase his stock, and he will have less leverage. But who knows. The point is, this seems like a below-slot pick and that some of this slot money may be reserved to make up the Groome over-slot pick. It's also a nice balance to Groome in terms of being a high floor guy to build minor league depth (I am kind of assuming they think he'll be able to stay at SS) rather than a high ceiling/high risk guy. He's also a candidate for conversion to pitching (I'd call this a real long shot, but if it looks like he's going to washout after a couple years, I would not be surprised to see him give it a go).

 

[mwonow]

This makes sense. I was initially underwhelmed by the pick, but going by 2015 values, the difference in slot money between #51 and #101 is about $500K. That should be enough to get into Groome's financial range,

 

[steveluck7]

3rd Round - Shaun Anderson - RHP - 6'4" 225lbs - U. Florida

On a very deep University of Florida staff, Anderson has carved out a niche as a very effective college closer. But the right-hander might have the stuff to start and a team taking him in the opening few rounds might give him every chance to do so. Out of the bullpen, Anderson is up to 95 mph with his fastball. But he has a four-pitch mix that could work out of a rotation. In back of that fastball, Anderson throws a hard curve/slider hybrid in the low 81-83 mph range, a cutter that sits around 86-88 mph and a low-80s changeup. He tends to be around the plate. Anderson did give some a glimpse of what he looks like as a starter in the Cape Cod League last summer. Gators starters like A.J. Puk and Logan Shore might go ahead of Anderson, but his potential in a rotation could see him come off the board not long after.

 

[Drek717]

Yep, the Chatam pick feels like the team saying "a top five guy dropped in our laps, we aren't going to let sign-ability prevent us from getting him" and will effectively downgrade their second pick to make it happen. Makes sense as really, once you get outside the top 10 success rates get pretty indistinguishable.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

In the 4th round, the Sox take Bobby Dalbec, 3B, Arizona (Rank: 118):
Bleacher Report says: "Bobby Dalbec looked like one of the elite college bats of this class after posting a 1.011 OPS with 15 home runs and 53 RBI as a sophomore and then leading the Cape Cod League with 12 home runs in 27 games. His junior season was a struggle, though, as he hit just .266 with a 30.4 percent strikeout rate. The raw power is intriguing, but the hit tool is an issue."

 

[OptimusPapi]

Is there any reason given for his struggles?

 

[j44thor]

This makes sense. I was initially underwhelmed by the pick, but going by 2015 values, the difference in slot money between #51 and #101 is about $500K. That should be enough to get into Groome's financial range,

I don't think you can trim that much off a 2nd or 3rd rd pick to pay up for a 1st rounder. Over at Soxprospects.com they talk about taking under slot guys from 4-10. Believe you have to sign your 2/3 within some % of slot or you lose that all-together and the ability to use the 5% overage on your first rounder.

The general consensus was go at or a little under slot at 2/3 then well under at 4,7,9 or something of that ilk to pay for Groome.

I'm certainly no expert on the MLB draft pool just relaying the message from soxprospects. They expect a heavy dose of college seniors in the later rounds since they are the easiest under slot signs having no leverage.

 

[TimScribble]

5th round:

"
The 6-foot-3, 225-pound Shawaryn was a three-year starter for the Terapins and but briefly lost his Friday night (No. 1 starter) role early in the season with some inconsistency. Shawaryn finished the season with a 3.18 ERA in 15 starts this spring, tossing three complete games and holding opponents to a .195 average.

He struck out 97 and walked 26 in 99 innings.

MLB.com says, Shawaryn has "long concerned scouts with his low three-quarters arm slot. He was throwing from a higher slot in the fall and sinking the ball better while throwing his slider with more depth. Back down lower this spring, the fear was that plus his workload was wearing on him."

Shawaryn has a 94 mph fastball and slider with a good break but an average changeup.

MLB.com adds: "A team that feels some rest and adjusted mechanics is all he needs could find a steal by taking advantage of his up-and-down spring."
"

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/06/red_sox_2016_draft_boston_sele.html

 

[TimScribble]

6th round:

 

[TimScribble]

7th round:

 

[TimScribble]

8th round:

 

[Sprowl]

8th round:

A team can never have too many flying Molina brothers.

 

[TimScribble]

 

[Kremlin Watcher]

In the 4th round, the Sox take Bobby Dalbec, 3B, Arizona (Rank: 118):
Bleacher Report says: "Bobby Dalbec looked like one of the elite college bats of this class after posting a 1.011 OPS with 15 home runs and 53 RBI as a sophomore and then leading the Cape Cod League with 12 home runs in 27 games. His junior season was a struggle, though, as he hit just .266 with a 30.4 percent strikeout rate. The raw power is intriguing, but the hit tool is an issue."

I watched Dalbec play last summer quite a bit in the Cape Cod League and he looked great. If he can find the form he flashed last summer and develop those tools, we could have something serviceable here.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

A team can never have too many flying Molina brothers.

He should be ready just in time for Vazquez to hit FA. :-o

 

[Plympton91]

Gotta say I absolutely love every pick through round 8. They really seem to have gotten some desperately needed power arms. That could be a shift in strategy, as Cherington seemed to be money-balling the power pitchers in the draft same way he did in constructing the 2015 rotation.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Gotta say I absolutely love every pick through round 8. They really seem to have gotten some desperately needed power arms. That could be a shift in strategy, as Cherington seemed to be money-balling the power pitchers in the draft same way he did in constructing the 2015 rotation.

Disagree. Not on overall premise but I hated Chatham in the 2nd, even if it was in part to gain money to sin Groome.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Two signability guys taken on day three so far.

Number 68 on BA's top 500 list, Jeff Belge. LHP, 6'4" 235 lbs.

When scouts were following Syracuse-area prospect Scott Blewett in 2014, they saw him make a start against Belge. Then a sophomore, the lefthanded Belge opened eyes when his fastball reached 94 mph. Belge hasn't quite put it all together since then, but he has shown flashes of brilliance. As a rising senior on the showcase circuit, his velocity worked more at 89-92 and dropped off quickly. This spring, Belge has made himself a bit of a wild card. In one start, scouts had him sitting 92-95, with some reporting that he had hit 96 multiple times, and showing a potentially plus curveball. The next time out, in front of a packed house of high-level scouting officials, Belge struggled and his velocity backed up. He is a physical specimen, sitting at 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds, and he has an athletic, balanced delivery and a clean arm action. There are also some concerns about his medical history, as he is nearly blind in one eye, complicating his draft status even further. If Belge pitches well down the stretch, there's no telling how high he could push himself up. If he is not drafted high, he could honor his commitment to St. Johns.

Number 114 on BA's top 500 list, Nick Quintana. SS, 5'10", 190 lbs.

An Arizona commit, Quintana is the latest top prospect from the Las Vegas area. He hit his way onto USA Baseball's 18U team last summer, where he primarily played third base. He hit just .225 but showed a line-drive swing and good gap power, and he has done that throughout most of his prep career. Quintana has some present strength in his 5-foot-10, 190-pound frame, to go with quick hands and bat speed that allow him to lash line drives to all fields. He had a dominant spring for Arbor View High, where he played shortstop. He's likely to move off the spot as a pro, with scouts mentioning second base, third base and catcher as possibilities. He worked behind the plate during Tournament of Stars, even flashing some sub-2.0-second pop times, though he has an average arm. His brother Zack pitches in the Braves system and was the Brewers' 2012 third-round pick. Nick is a below-average but aggressive runner whose bat could get him off the board in the first three rounds.

 

[burstnbloom]

Overall an interesting draft. I'm sure some of the picks had something to do with getting more money for Groome. I'm not that encouraged by Chatham and Dalbec seems like a pretty unlikely candidate to get to AA given his swing and miss. The kid struck out 30% of the time in the Pac-10. Imagine what the Carolina league will do to him. I think the college reliever route is interesting, as they took 3 of the better college closers out there. My untrained eye says Shawaryn's arm is going to fall off before anything becomes of him but TINSTAAPP. Hopefully they can lock up Groome and one of these higher floor college reliever types travels quickly and this could end up being a reasonably productive draft given that they had to make some decisions about where to spend money because of Groome falling.

 

[OCD SS]

[

I don't think you can trim that much off a 2nd or 3rd rd pick to pay up for a 1st rounder. Over at Soxprospects.com they talk about taking under slot guys from 4-10. Believe you have to sign your 2/3 within some % of slot or you lose that all-together and the ability to use the 5% overage on your first rounder.

The general consensus was go at or

I don't think you can trim that much off a 2nd or 3rd rd pick to pay up for a 1st rounder. Over at Soxprospects.com they talk about taking under slot guys from 4-10. Believe you have to sign your 2/3 within some % of slot or you lose that all-together and the ability to use the 5% overage on your first rounder.

The general consensus was go at or a little under slot at 2/3 then well under at 4,7,9 or something of that ilk to pay for Groome.

I'm certainly no expert on the MLB draft pool just relaying the message from soxprospects. They expect a heavy dose of college seniors in the later rounds since they are the easiest under slot signs having no leverage.

I wanted to follow up in this: I believe you can offer them whatever you want, however there is a percentage of the slot that the team must offer in order to get a compensation pick if the player doesn't sign. For example when Houston drafted Brady Aiken, they reduced their offer down to the bare minimum they could offer and still get a comp pick (around $3M IIRC).

Chatam supposedly had some helium, but I'd be surprised if it took slot to sign him; I'm guessing once Groome was available the Sox called around looking for a player they liked who would sign for less so they can get some extra for Groome. A bunch of 10k signings at the back end of the draft isn't enough to make up for his bonus demands…

 

[JimD]

http://highschoolsports.syracuse.com/news/article/7272807241397523381/boston-red-sox-show-jeff-belge-some-love-with-selection-in-mlb-draft/

Jeff Belge doesn't plan to sign, headed to St. John's University

 

[smastroyin]

Chatham's helium may be real, but since it was largely talked about in a glad handing back and forth between Callis and Mayo and I kind of presume they are using the same sources. So OK maybe he wouldn't have been around at 88 but I don't think he would be top of the board unless the Sox agree wholeheartedly that he can stay at SS and be a plus defender there, or that the bat is going to play up. Most of the variance in his scouting reports comes from whether he can stay at SS or not.

Anyway, Quintana seems signable, but will probably take a significant chunk to do it. ($500K+). I think they have to settle Groome before they can really move on any of the sign-ability guys.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

So if Chatham can stay at SS, what's his upside? What I'm reading is contact/discipline bat, no power, no speed to speak of. So basically a taller Marco Scutaro?

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

So if Chatham can stay at SS, what's his upside? What I'm reading is contact/discipline bat, no power, no speed to speak of. So basically a taller Marco Scutaro?

That's a ML ceiling comparing him to Scutaro. He could certainly do better but certainly could be a lot worse.

 

[nvalvo]

Scutaro's first six years of service time were worth about 10 fWAR/12 bWAR. You'd be more than pleased to get that from the second round.

 

[smastroyin]

Chatham has apparently already come to terms in principle. I assume there was a discussion about what it would take to sign him before the draft.

the slot value for pick 51 is $1.232 MM. I'm guessing (along with others) that Chatham comes in somewhere around $1M even.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Chatham has apparently already come to terms in principle. I assume there was a discussion about what it would take to sign him before the draft.

the slot value for pick 51 is $1.232 MM. I'm guessing (along with others) that Chatham comes in somewhere around $1M even.

Below slot.

John Manuel ‏@johnmanuelba 3m3 minutes ago
2nd-team All-Am SS C.J. Chatham of @FAUOwlAthletics, 51st overall pick by #RedSox, signing for $1.1M, pending physical. Slot is $1,232,800

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Didn't save much there.

 

[curly2]

Didn't save much there.

Yeah, I thought they'd get him for an even million.

 

[Darnell's Son]

[
I wanted to follow up in this: I believe you can offer them whatever you want, however there is a percentage of the slot that the team must offer in order to get a compensation pick if the player doesn't sign. For example when Houston drafted Brady Aiken, they reduced their offer down to the bare minimum they could offer and still get a comp pick (around $3M IIRC).

It's 40%

You can read more at this lovely glossary entry. (not that I'm biased or anything)

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Didn't save much there.

No but I take the quick signing as a positive sign that they have a good line on Groome. I think otherwise they would have waited to finalize this one (or any of the other top ten, really).

 

[Bigpupp]

No but I take the quick signing as a positive sign that they have a good line on Groome. I think otherwise they would have waited to finalize this one (or any of the other top ten, really).

I disagree. The Sox know how much each draftee is looking for well before they draft them (and many in the industry believe players have already made deals with the teams prior to be being selected). So what could the Sox gain by waiting to finalize? It's not like Chatham would agree to sign for 1.1Mil, but then be OK with signing for 1Mil later because Groome signed for too much. If the Sox try and screw him over he could completely sink their entire draft by not signing and causing the Sox to lose out on his money and his extra 5%.

I think the goal is to sign the players in the top 10 to the best deal you can get and hope there is not only enough money left for Groome but for a bonus baby or two from the later rounds.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I disagree. The Sox know how much each draftee is looking for well before they draft them (and many in the industry believe players have already made deals with the teams prior to be being selected). So what could the Sox gain by waiting to finalize? It's not like Chatham would agree to sign for 1.1Mil, but then be OK with signing for 1Mil later because Groome signed for too much. If the Sox try and screw him over he could completely sink their entire draft by not signing and causing the Sox to lose out on his money and his extra 5%.

I think the goal is to sign the players in the top 10 to the best deal you can get and hope there is not only enough money left for Groome but for a bonus baby or two from the later rounds.

So it's a bad sign?

The teams talk about numbers but they don't lock anything in. And with a player like Chatham - who was projected to go in the 3/4 rounds - you draft him because the option he has is get picked a lot earlier, make more money and sign below slot or sit and roll the dice that you make half as much being drafted where you were projected. Or worse. He wasn't walking away over $100k because he felt like they screwed him. While I wasn't in the room, I'm pretty confident that the Sox didn't promise a specific number, but more likely, they gauged roughly how much that higher draft slot meant to him financially and then pulled the trigger to take him. Because end of day, his draft slot isn't blowing up their draft.

With the new system it's all about your first round pick. You either overdraft a bit there to spend money later or someone falls to you and you overdraft later to cover the first round pick. There's no more bonus babies. Not like we knew. Once Groome fell in their laps, the plan changed. And that meant take the guy and adjust. If Chatham walks over $100k then you lose 5% of his slot and whatever you could have gotten him to sign for under slot. That's it.

So if a team drafts a guy reportedly asking for anywhere between $800k-$2.8M over where he was taken and they sign the guy that was seemingly taken to contribute to that fund for less savings than expected, than I read that as them being good on the bigger, more important guy. Or at least garnering enough savings there that they are willing to lock it in and move on.

Otherwise, why do it so quickly? They've got another month. He's not going anywhere. The guy they took had some helium that he can't be sure will be there in a year, in a stronger draft class, when he can't be all that confident he will go even as high as projected and certainly most likely not this high.

I can understand if you don't agree I'm just having trouble understanding why they would do it otherwise? Maybe you could lay out a scenario?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Don't know if it's appropriate in this thread... But I was curious about Trey Ball and saw that he seems to be doing relatively well. Is he considered a failure already? Drafted out of HS- he still is young, is he old for the competition?

 

[smastroyin]

PP, Chatham talked to the Red Sox and two other teams before the draft. The Red Sox knew what he wanted and made the pick accordingly. Another of the two teams was the Blue Jays whose slot number at 57 is basically what the Sox signed Chatham for.

I don't like the pick very much, I would have hoped for something more like $900K to get me to "like" it (yes, $200K is not much in the grand scheme, but it is probably the difference in also landing some other later guys or not, and it's 20%+ of the difference between Groome's reported demand (depending which demand you believe) and the slot number, so a healthy chunk) Whatever, the Sox make their decisions and I'm not going to sit around and argue about it anymore.

Ball has a nice looking ERA but his peripherals are all still mediocre. It's his second time though the Carolina League. He is still young for the league (he's 22 in two weeks, average age in league is about 23), but not necessarily young for a real prospect in the league. But 4.6 BB/9 to 5.1 K/9 just doesn't scream prospect to me at all.

 

[Bigpupp]

So it's a bad sign?

It's not a sign at all. It's how the draft is done. You sign players at the money you've already at least talked to them about, or as smas pointed, the number you've promised them. The Sox need to make all the pieces fit, but they aren't going to jam them together.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

Don't know if it's appropriate in this thread... But I was curious about Trey Ball and saw that he seems to be doing relatively well. Is he considered a failure already? Drafted out of HS- he still is young, is he old for the competition?

Still young, was noted to be raw out of HS, not a failure. However, he's still walking way too many guys (4.6/9IP) and isn't striking out a ton; most of his shiny ERA seems to be from limiting harder contact, which is nice but not necessarily predictive. Still, a step forward.

 

[TimScribble]

 

[TimScribble]

No amounts reported yet.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Matt McLean and Ryan Scott both signed for $10,000 per Jim Callis.

 

[TimScribble]

Sox prospects says Boston has saved $523k so far in signings.
http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/06/red-sox-agree-to-terms-with-four-2016.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&m=1

 

[cahlton]

Scott, an outfielder from the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, will receive a $10,000 signing bonus, which is $200,700 below the slot value for the 208th pick.

[....]

McLean also received a $10,000 signing bonus, which is $158,400 below the slot value for the 268th pick.

I understand that Scott and McLean are seniors with no leverage, but the amount of money the Red Sox are giving them, in view of the respective slot values, is downright insulting. How does the team do this without engendering resentment in both players?

 

[Rasputin]

Scott, an outfielder from the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, will receive a $10,000 signing bonus, which is $200,700 below the slot value for the 208th pick.

[....]

McLean also received a $10,000 signing bonus, which is $158,400 below the slot value for the 268th pick.

I understand that Scott and McLean are seniors with no leverage, but the amount of money the Red Sox are giving them, in view of the respective slot values, is downright insulting. How does the team do this without engendering resentment in both players?

Seniors who go that late know that's what they're going to get. If they were at all insulted or resented it, they wouldn't have agreed to it so fast. It happens every year, every team drafts a bunch of seniors who aren't that good and have no leverage just because they need bodies. The seniors know they aren't top picks and they take their 10k and try to prove everyone wrong.

 

[Byrdbrain]

It is what it is and is just the way the system is set up. I would assume the Sox told their agents what the deal was before they were even drafted, if they balked at signing for $10k then the Sox would have picked someone else.
It sucks for the kids who will be eating Ramen and PBJs for the next few years but one in a thousand will make it and the others will move on with their lives and tell their grandkids they got drafted.

 

[Granite Sox]

While the Sox have created $500,000-$800,000 in room (inclusive of the 5% pool overage), on the most recent Sox Prospects podcast Callis suggested that the Sox should sign 11th Rd pick Nick Quintana as a high ceiling HS draftee. Thus fans shouldn't assume that all the extra funds are earmarked for An offer to Groome.

 

[soxhop411]

“‪@RyanHannable‬: Source: Red Sox 2nd-round pick CJ Chatham will report to Ft. Myers to rehab thumb that turned out broken. Happened in regional 2 weeks ago.”

 

[MadStork]

Seniors who go that late know that's what they're going to get. If they were at all insulted or resented it, they wouldn't have agreed to it so fast. It happens every year, every team drafts a bunch of seniors who aren't that good and have no leverage just because they need bodies. The seniors know they aren't top picks and they take their 10k and try to prove everyone wrong.

$6700 after taxes

 

[ZMart100]

$6700 after taxes

Minor leaguers with a 10k bonus are certainly not in the $189,301-411,500 tax bracket. With normal placement, they earn 10k plus $1150-1300 a month during their shortened first season. That puts them paying 15% before deductions and tax credits.

 

[Plympton91]

Minor leaguers with a 10k bonus are certainly not in the $189,301-411,500 tax bracket. With normal placement, they earn 10k plus $1150-1300 a month during their shortened first season. That puts them paying 15% before deductions and tax credits.

Plus 7.65% social security and Medicare, and whatever state tax applies. Hopefully for their sake the bonus is payable in Florida, where its tax free, and not in Taxachussets.

 

[Byrdbrain]

I have no idea how this tangent got started but with a standard deduction those low bonus guys are probably paying no Fed Taxes at all.
As for a signing bonus it looks like taxes are withheld based on their resident state.
http://anderscpa.com/taxation-of-major-league-baseball-signing-bonuses/