Patriots' 2024 Free Agency Thread
- Thread starter Jake Peavy's Demons
- Start date
Of course I don’t know what NE is trying to do here or what conversations they’ve had with other teams or even internally. But this seems straightforward.
Smith on a two year deal to play LT.
Williams on a two year deal to play WR.
Both come with risks. Both will cost $$. But NE has $$ and can afford both on short deals, and that would really free them up for the upcoming draft.
Smith on a two year deal to play LT.
Williams on a two year deal to play WR.
Both come with risks. Both will cost $$. But NE has $$ and can afford both on short deals, and that would really free them up for the upcoming draft.
Considering the age and health of those guys, I don’t know that it really frees them up, they still need a LT and WR badly in the draft even if they sign old and breaking down veterans to short contracts
They’re not competing next year, they need solutions for the future.
Yeah it’s not really the age, it’s the year of the contract. Most of these guys who have been or will be moved are coming off their rookie deals so most of these guys are 26-28 since few players end their rookie season at age 21
I'm thinking there's a philosophical issue at work, too. Even for this season. Wolf/Mayo might be highly valuing availability. Especially on the offensive line, guys missing games just fucks up everything. Of course players get hurt, but they probably see Smith as *likely* to miss several games. I honestly don't know where I sit with that analysis. I assume Smith is still playing at high level. But I get the continuity argument.
I think Smith makes a ton of sense in part because.... they actually have some OT depth, they need high ceiling OT play. They have 4 guys at least who CAN (and have) played OT in the NFL at a borderline starter or low end starter level. What they don't have is any GOOD OTs.
Yes of course they still need those guys in the draft but the guys they draft don’t need to start right away, and can grow into the positions.
I understand Allen is more if a GFIN guy, but come on, if you want to compete and need a WR1, and this is the price…
View: https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1768461735659192609?s=42&t=-Ai-mpXJJ05V-SE-SPRBGA
View: https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1768461735659192609?s=42&t=-Ai-mpXJJ05V-SE-SPRBGA
You've gotta be kidding me. They better have something up their sleeves.
Look, I get that Keenan Allen would be highly unlikely to be part of the next great Patriots team but that is not the point. If you're going to play a rookie QB you need to put him in the best position to succeed for his development. I don't care if Keenan Allen breaks down and is borderline useless by 2026. If he can be Drake Maye's or Jayden Daniels' best friend in 2024 and eat up 150 targets, that alone is worth a 4th rounder. They're going to Mac Jones whoever they pick at #3 aren't they?
Look, I get that Keenan Allen would be highly unlikely to be part of the next great Patriots team but that is not the point. If you're going to play a rookie QB you need to put him in the best position to succeed for his development. I don't care if Keenan Allen breaks down and is borderline useless by 2026. If he can be Drake Maye's or Jayden Daniels' best friend in 2024 and eat up 150 targets, that alone is worth a 4th rounder. They're going to Mac Jones whoever they pick at #3 aren't they?
Yeah I don’t understand why they wouldn’t be all over a guy like Allen at that cost.
Allen has clearly lost a step or two, but he'd be perfect as a smart, dependable security blanket for a young QB, which is why he's going to Chicago. That's the kind of move I'd make if I had cap room to spare.
So the plan is just the draft then. Also was hopeful for Williams and smith on short years to help get the QB up to speed, but maybe they’re just drafting BPA and seeing what they have before investing anything else.
Brissett + no talent around him seems like a great way to secure excellent draft position next year. See what you have with the newly drafted QB/WR/OT and then draft high again and start spending? Trying to make sense of this approach because otherwise it looks an awful lot like full throttle: redux
Brissett + no talent around him seems like a great way to secure excellent draft position next year. See what you have with the newly drafted QB/WR/OT and then draft high again and start spending? Trying to make sense of this approach because otherwise it looks an awful lot like full throttle: redux
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I'm not a Hollywood Brown fan but at KC signing him for 1yr up to 11M seems way below market rate. Another of my binkies Kamren Curl FS WAS also signs for peanuts with LAR. Quickly souring on this FA period, that 55M in cap space looks like it won't be worth much at this point.
I'd say I'm out of hopium at this point and questioning what the plan is beyond returning the core of a 4 win team and adding an RB that was phased out of a 4 win team.
I'd say I'm out of hopium at this point and questioning what the plan is beyond returning the core of a 4 win team and adding an RB that was phased out of a 4 win team.
At this point they should just pay Barmore. They have to use the space, and there's a chance they can do something for less this year than next. Maybe re-do Peppers' deal too.
At OT, yes, Smith is still there, but not much else worth spending on unless they get into the trade market.
At DB, maybe a few more possibilities. Simmons is still out there. Maybe a trade for Sneed but that doesn't seem worth it. Old friend Stephon Gilmore, who I am in love with again after watching the LAR SB highlights.
For WR, it's looking like a jag or two and some draft picks unless they pull off a surprise trade.
At OT, yes, Smith is still there, but not much else worth spending on unless they get into the trade market.
At DB, maybe a few more possibilities. Simmons is still out there. Maybe a trade for Sneed but that doesn't seem worth it. Old friend Stephon Gilmore, who I am in love with again after watching the LAR SB highlights.
For WR, it's looking like a jag or two and some draft picks unless they pull off a surprise trade.
Unless I'm reading it wrong, Keenan Allen makes 23M next year between salary and roster bonus, has one year left on his contract, and would cost a fourth. If that's correct, I'm confused as to why folks are upset that we weren't in on that. Are we in GFIN mode in 2024?
One theory of the case is that the offense, led by Mac, was an underachieving mess last year that put too much pressure (via short drives and turnovers) on a defense that was good but limited by key injuries.
I agree with this. I mean, maybe there are other moves out there that they are looking at. But one way or another they need to use all the cap space to the team's benefit.
There has to be a trade coming right?
Can't see extensions and the remaining FAs taking up the remaining cap space.
Because we are going to have a rookie QB that we want to get comfortable in the NFL and having a security blanket like Allen would be nice instead of his best receiver being Kendrick Bourne coming off of torn ACL? And the money is meaningless since we're way under the cap?
So you’re under the impression the rookie is starting in the first half of 2024?
Eh, maybe the Chargers were doing Allen a solid and sending him to a place he'd like to play versus playing in Foxboro. At this point he's a much better fit as a #2 to DJ Moore with the prospect of catching balls from the top pick in the draft being far more appealing to being the defacto #1 in NE with a more uncertain QB situation (maybe Brissett, maybe pick #3).
Why?
To be clear, I think they will use the space. People are getting seduced by early free agency and are not appreciating how injecting new rookies into the league starts to free up deals. But there is no mandate to spend just to spend. They should use cap wisely and if the right moves aren’t there, they aren’t there.
One thing to me.... people are treating the 4th (which is the equivalent of a late 3rd many years given the low comp picks this year) as if it's nothing..... a lot of really valuable players come out of the 4th.
Even just at WR, in recent years you had: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Doubs, Davis. Non-QBs.. Sneed, Maxx Crosby,
And it's not just stars, there are a ton of good solid starters across basically every position coming out of the 4th (even more if we loop in late 3rd).... that's a lot of upside to give up for the fuzzy and dubious benefit that a rookie gets out of maybe playing with Keenan Allen for a year. Has anyone even ever done it before? Usually teams target younger WRs to put with their QBs (usually year 2) so they can develop chemistry and grow together.
This all seems like people panicking that they are unhappy with the WR room (it's not good) and want to "do something", it's just not a move that makes any sense for where NE is.
Even just at WR, in recent years you had: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Doubs, Davis. Non-QBs.. Sneed, Maxx Crosby,
And it's not just stars, there are a ton of good solid starters across basically every position coming out of the 4th (even more if we loop in late 3rd).... that's a lot of upside to give up for the fuzzy and dubious benefit that a rookie gets out of maybe playing with Keenan Allen for a year. Has anyone even ever done it before? Usually teams target younger WRs to put with their QBs (usually year 2) so they can develop chemistry and grow together.
This all seems like people panicking that they are unhappy with the WR room (it's not good) and want to "do something", it's just not a move that makes any sense for where NE is.
Updating my thoughts from a week ago
So of the needs left I have a 3rd/4th CB and OT who can compete for starting role. Even after that, they still should have plenty of space 20m for luxury upgrades if available.
I think people think the floor is every year. Though, I do think they'll spend most of the cap, because they can wait it out then frontload the extensions at the end, do some other re-works etc.
Nobody is “panicking”. Framing the discussion in that way is silly and counterproductive. You’ve stated your opinion countless times. Others may disagree. This is fine.
Because of the salary floor? I have not seen the $ calculation, but it's 89% of the cap over four years right? I am not sure what that means in 2024 spending, but I don't think they can leave $50 million unspent. And on OCP they currently have $142 million free in 2025. So the money has to flow at some point.
I agree that 4th would have been a steep price for a 1yr security blanket. At this point I hope the plan is to redshirt whoever is drafted at QB and ride with Brissett for the year unless it is clear we have CJ Stroud v2 on our hands. Which will be very unlikely given Stroud is a unicorn as far as rookie QB success.
Currently NE appears to be competing with NYG and LAC for the 1st overall pick next season. Granted NE Defense is much better than both those teams but at least on offense we are certainly on par and when you add in the uncertainty of a rookie HC I think that evens the playing field just a bit.
I wonder if Kraft signed up for a full rebuild because that appears to be the direction this is headed.
THey're nowhere near the 4 year floor, and they will push money into this year in extensions, re-works etc. Also, almost everyone they signed this year to a multi-year deal will have a larger cap hit next year. They also only have 26 guys on the 2025 roster..... hence the cap space. No NFL team basically ever has been in a spot where they HAD to spend to hit the floor.
View: https://twitter.com/DougKyed/status/1768611089153991052
Marco Wilson will at least be at camp, re-negotiated his deal down.
Marco Wilson will at least be at camp, re-negotiated his deal down.
A verb that has a decent chance to stick, though proper context should make it negatively self-aggrandizing.
It's a "multi-year process" warring with "why don't we sign a 32 year old on a one year deal?"
This team has mad holes, and I'm hoping that they don't waste a 4th and a bunch of cap money on a guy who's here for one year because it'll be a nice escape valve for the next QB. If they want to go the new QB a favor, they should buy him 3 seconds in the pocket.
Good info! Are the percentages and amounts reflected anywhere?
I am not surprised by this never being activated. I would imagine owners would literally rather "burn cash" than be forced to pay it to players. But I did think there was more of a threshold that had to be crossed to avoid any issues.
I saw three prongs to this offseason:
1--QB
2--WR
3--OL
FREE AGENCY:
QB--I think in FA they've done exactly what they wanted with QB. Because they're drafting a QB at #3.
WR--This hasn't worked in FA yet, but it wasn't a great class. They were in on Ridley, so they clearly want to do something here. Still some options out there--Williams, etc. Next year's class looks amazing, as of now.
OL--I think they've elevated the floor here, and there are still some options (Smith, etc.) to bring in high level guys.
DRAFT:
QB--It's happening at #3. People keep trying to create clicks, but it's happening.
WR--Awesome options here, if they get another guy in FA/trade, then they can even double-dip early.
OL--Have chance to grab good prospect in 2nd or 3rd depending on how next month shakes out.
1--QB
2--WR
3--OL
FREE AGENCY:
QB--I think in FA they've done exactly what they wanted with QB. Because they're drafting a QB at #3.
WR--This hasn't worked in FA yet, but it wasn't a great class. They were in on Ridley, so they clearly want to do something here. Still some options out there--Williams, etc. Next year's class looks amazing, as of now.
OL--I think they've elevated the floor here, and there are still some options (Smith, etc.) to bring in high level guys.
DRAFT:
QB--It's happening at #3. People keep trying to create clicks, but it's happening.
WR--Awesome options here, if they get another guy in FA/trade, then they can even double-dip early.
OL--Have chance to grab good prospect in 2nd or 3rd depending on how next month shakes out.
None of the guys who look amazing will be available for just money, we are very close to thinking of receivers almost like QBs, in that the truly good ones just aren't attainable unless you want to pay a huge price in both money and assets. You either draft and develop them or part with a massive haul. They really need to try to find a way to solve tackle in free agency so they can throw multiple darts at the receiver board in the draft.
I'm not aware of anyone who tracks it, I just check OTC or Spotrac. The real thing is just... the NFL has so many roster spots that you're never going to be in an NBA type situation where your players are all on rookie deals, so there is always someone who can help your team that you can add, or money you can push around. It's interesting, I checked out of curiosity... basically other than "it exists" nobody even writes about the floor. I can't find any articles about teams at risk for the floor, nothing since the initial explanation articles when it came in. So seems like in the 10 years it's been around no team has even hypothetically been at risk
It would be keeping in character for the Players Union to negotiate for something that looked good on paper but was ultimately meaningless because it could easily be sidestepped or manipulated by the owners.
I wouldn’t give up a high 4th for Allen but the reality is maybe 5-6 guys per year come out of the 4th (out of the 35 or so picks including comp picks) and become quality starters. The chances that whatever guy Wolf drafts in the 4th is good are pretty slim and that player is likely to be out of the league or a spare part somewhere by the time the Pats window to compete (2027?) re-opens - same as Allen. So the question really is, what cost (draft capital or overpaid free agents) are the Pats willing to pay to help provide a rookie QB with some help to ensure his development doesn’t get derailed.
The team isn’t going to be hurting for cap space for a while. Other than Barmore and maybe Peppers, there’s basically no big re-signings on the horizon. Personally id trade the low chance of finding a good player on a cheap contract (mid or late round picks) for short term quality veterans who can set up my new QB for success
Putting all the eggs in the draft basket is putting an unrealistic expectation on the number of core pieces any team, even the best drafting ones, can find each year.
They will not have $50 million unspent. Their 2024 spending will significantly exceed their cap charge. Just look at what will happen with pick number 3. In salary and bonus they will spend over $20 million. But it will only count $6.5 million against the cap. Do not confuse cap and cash. Cash is cash. Cap is accounting. This will all be ok.
Yeah. It looks to me that Mayo and Elliot (and ownership) are thinking about giving the rookie QB a redshirt year. One of the Krafts seemingly leaked the “expecting to be patient” stuff (paraphrasing) regarding the rebuild.
I take all of this as Elliot is rolling out the “Packer way,” which in part seems to be “sit your guy behind an established vet and give him space to grow.”
I think Brissett starts every game this year, barring injury. I don’t think a rookie QB is being rushed into anything here, which is why I’m partially okay getting a Penix or Nix and letting them marinate behind the scenes. Hell, if you need to have them sit two years, you can.
I'd be very surprised. Krafts are attention whores right now, and eager to show their own genius. They are missing that drug Pioli spoke so eloquently about. I don't think they want to roll out 8 games of Brissett and a repeat of the boring, listless experience from this year. Packers approach was also to sit the new QB behind an established legend, not a journeyman. We did that with Jimmy G but I don't think it happens here.
And they set themselves up by punting on last years draft. Are you willing to pull of a similar delay to extend the time to recovery while improving the chances of success?
NIx and Penix both played 6yrs of college ball albeit Penix missed a lot of time due to injury. How much more marinating do they need? They will both be 24 before training camp starts, 18months younger than Mac Jones. If Maye is the pick, which I expect it will be, then I think it makes a lot of sense to sit him for a full season as he won't turn 22 until August and only started for 2 full seasons in college.
A lot of them do? I think it's dumb to redshirt a top 3 pick and waste time when he could be learning the offense and the league in game reps unless he is totally not getting it in practice, in which case you have bigger problems. We don't have a hall of famer for the new guy to learn from and we're most likely not having a prospect fall to us in the 20s like GB did, twice.
I don't think missing on Allen is a huge problem but I'd feel a lot better if they added a veteran to the worst receivers room in the league.
If the plan is to suck for another high pick then sure, throw Brissett out there all year I guess. But you don't learn a whole lot about what you have.
Ugh I would hate redshirting the QB. That means you don’t know what you have until the 2026 draft.
The Packer way is "draft a first round QB when your hall of famer is starting to become a headache". Rodgers and Love sat because Favre and Rodgers were under contract and playing at a high enough level. I think that's very different from bringing in Brissett on a one year deal and deciding your top 3 rookie QB will sit no matter what.