Patriots @ Arizona: Week 1

[NortheasternPJ]

Haven't seen much on Week 1 so far but starting out Week 1 Pats are between +6 and +7 at Arizona. Outside of the obvious stories on Jimmy etc. I did a bunch of research but this has to be the worst line since 2002:

From 2013:
And here's another amazing stat: Since that 2005 Colts game, the Patriots have only been road underdogs 15 times, and in those contests, the Patriots didn't cover the spread just three times.

Another stat:
The largest spread was the undefeated 2007 Patriots giving 24.5 points against a middling Eagles team starting A.J. Feeley at quarterback. (The Eagles only lost that game by three points.)

I'm sure there's a record of it somewhere but have the Pats been dogs by 6 on the road or at home since 2002? It's an amazing run. I haven't found a great list of spreads for 2008 though.

 

[bankshot1]

Haven't seen much on Week 1 so far but starting out Week 1 Pats are between +6 and +7 at Arizona. Outside of the obvious stories on Jimmy etc. I did a bunch of research but this has to be the worst line since 2002:

From 2013:
And here's another amazing stat: Since that 2005 Colts game, the Patriots have only been road underdogs 15 times, and in those contests, the Patriots didn't cover the spread just three times.

Another stat:
The largest spread was the undefeated 2007 Patriots giving 24.5 points against a middling Eagles team starting A.J. Feeley at quarterback. (The Eagles only lost that game by three points.)

I'm sure there's a record of it somewhere but have the Pats been dogs by 6 on the road or at home since 2002? It's an amazing run. I haven't found a great list of spreads for 2008 though.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200811020clt.htm

the Matt Cassell year according to Football Reference the Pats were 6 1/2 road dogs against Indy.

Pats lost/covered 18-15

Same year/source: they were also a 6 point road dog v Chargers. They lost 30-10

 

[H78]

I honestly think the Pats are going to get crushed. Arizona is starting the season with high expectations, they're at home, it's a prime time game against the Patriots, and they're going to throw a ton of crap at Jimmy G that he hasn't even dreamed of before. They're going to come out wanting to make a statement.

34-16 or something along those lines. I hope I'm wrong. But I, for one, won't panic at all because I think the Pats are loaded and are going to be just fine.

 

[Stitch01]

Ive actually swung from that to thinking this is probably a close, low scoring game, but yeah, not going to panic if they get blown out, some percentage of the time the OL self-immolates like GB did in Arizona last year.

 

[soxhop411]

Gronk was limited today

 

[BigSoxFan]

I think the OL is going to get blown up in this one. I expect the Cardinals get up to an early 10-14 point lead before Jimmy settles down and makes things quasi-interesting. Running game proves to be non-existent.

 

[Pandemonium67]

I imagine JG and the offense will struggle all game -- but I think the Pats D is going to make a statement too. The result will be a close, hard-fought game that leaves both teams optimistic. Cards 20-13, with a JG turnover being the difference.

 

[pokey_reese]

I'm anticipating a pretty big loss, but I think that the Cards are really good, and don't trust Jimmy G to not turn the ball over a few times in his first real game. So many new parts on this O-Line, which is a pretty scary thing with an inexperienced QB against a top defense, on the road. Honestly, the fact that the Pats are only a 1 TD underdog speaks to remarkable talent at the 'skill' positions on both sides of the ball. Of course, if the beat up line can gel this early in the season, then I could see the Pats hanging tough (with a load of dump-off targets to Bennett), but that's a pretty big 'if.'

 

[Soxy]

Arizona is a gambling defense that is willing to blitz on any down. Jimmy needs to be able to diagnose when they're blitzing, make the right pre-snap adjustments, and hit the big plays when the opportunities present themselves. I don't trust him to be able to do that well enough, so I don't see the Pats winning this one. Hope I'm wrong, but this is a tough spot to put a kid making his first career start. I expect Arizona to throw the kitchen sink at him and I don't think he'll be able to handle it.

Need to hope for a lot of mental errors from the Cardinals. Bright side is that they're a team that is more likely than other comparably talented teams to do that. This certainly wouldn't be the first time Carson Palmer imploded and cost his team a victory. But when your best hope is the other team messing up, you're not in a great position.

 

[tims4wins]

Honestly even with Brady I would probably peg this as the toughest road game of the last like 5 years. So fully expecting a double digit loss. Even with Brady I'd call it a 50-50 at best. Wish Brady was playing - not because the Pats would have a better chance, just because it is a great matchup

 

[dbn]

I think the spread is about right. I expect the Patriots to lose but would not at all be surprised if they win. I think the defense is going to be very, very good, and the offense still has Gronkowski and Edelman. Sure, the Cardinals are going to want to make a statement - just like the other 31 teams in the NFL playing in week 1 want to make a statement.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Is Cyrus Jones going to return any punts/kicks? Looks like he's the #4 CB on the depth chart but don't see him listed as the starter for PR or KR. I really hope he gets a chance. A special teams TD could be an equalizer in a game like this.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Arizona is starting a rookie opposite Patrick Peterson. The Patriots will find a way to exploit this matchup no matter who is at QB.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

This Pats D is better then people think, and the Cards O is overrated. This game is close and in the low 20s.

 

[Tony C]

defensive battle -- final score: 17-13. Could go either way, but so as not to jinx it will say AZ wins.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Fully expect to lose this game, close or blowout and put no stock in the final score as to predictive value of the team. I'm in the boat this will be a lower scoring game and the Pats probably lose something like 23-10 with a couple turnovers from JG and will be pleasantly surprised if something happens that makes that more enjoyable. I never jump to conclusions with this team and don't plan to alter that. Get out there, figure out the OL and hopefully nobody major gets hurt. Go 2-2 and I'm happy, 3-1 and its fantastic. Cherry on the sundae is if JG plays well enough to garner a 1st to replace the one from DG.

 

[ShaneTrot]

I think the OL is going to get blown up in this one. I expect the Cardinals get up to an early 10-14 point lead before Jimmy settles down and makes things quasi-interesting. Running game proves to be non-existent.

Why? The AZ defense is small, and plays a safety at LB. If the Pats run a lot of two TE sets, they could push them around. Plus Develin is back, I think he will help the running game. Blount is healthy and he has looked good in the preseason.
NE's first team defense has looked pretty good to me. I am expecting big things out of Sheard, Long and Flowers. Plus Hightower and Collins are sublime. I think NE will force some turnovers.

 

[sodenj5]

I think Jimmy is going to be in trouble. The Cards love to blitz, and they have a few new toys on D in Robert Nkemdiche and some guy named Chandler Jones.

I think the Pats D can keep it close and wrangle the Arizona offense, but Jimmy vs. the Cards D looks like a huge mismatch to me.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

34-16 or something along those lines. I hope I'm wrong. But I, for one, won't panic at all because I think the Pats are loaded and are going to be just fine.

If they give up 34 points, that's a terrible result and the worst case scenario: a bad defense. With the defense they seem to have, unless Jimmy G. throws 3 pick 6's, there's no way they should be giving up 34 points.

 

[5dice]

Thank goodness Garoppolo wont be the only guy on the field. I like Pats D turnover potential and also like the Cards 32nd dvoa ranked special teams unit facing the Patriots special teams.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst

 

[DJnVa]

34-16 or something along those lines. I hope I'm wrong. But I, for one, won't panic at all because I think the Pats are loaded and are going to be just fine.

This Pats defense shouldn't give up 34 to anyone.

Now, you could be predicating that on JG throwing some bad picks and the defense just being in bad spots all night, but I'd be pretty surprised to see that many points outside of special teams fiascos.

 

[dcmissle]

Thank goodness Garoppolo wont be the only guy on the field. I like Pats D turnover potential and also like the Cards 32nd dvoa ranked special teams unit facing the Patriots special teams.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst

I'm there too, but JG is the one guy positioned best to ruin all of that because he's completely overwhelmed. We have no idea what we're getting; he's never played a pro game that counted for much.

This is one of the few instances in which how you lose -- IF you lose -- likely matters. Potentially, this isn't TB and Co. getting their asses kicked in the Buffalo opener. It's a guy who at all costs has to avoid crapping his pants for the first month.

 

[deanx0]

I think it will be the inverse of last year's opener with the Cardinals holding a 24-10 lead late and the Pats scoring a touchdown with less than 2 minutes left to make the final score seem closer than it was.

 

[BaseballJones]

Worst case: JG is overwhelmed and has like 4 turnovers (3 INT and a fumble) that either directly lead to Arizona points or set up the Cardinals' offense with a short field. The D plays pretty well, but is just put in many tough spots. Cardinals win like 31-10.

Best case: Palmer, who has the ability to be awful, is awful, JG plays better than people think, and the Patriots control the game, winning 24-13.

Most likely case, IMO: JG is mediocre. Some nice plays, some bad plays, a couple of turnovers. The D is solid. It's a tight game that can go either way, but Arizona makes a couple more plays than the Patriots do, and win like 20-17, something like that.

However it turns out, I won't worry. If the Pats lose, we know the reaction all over New England, and probably in the national media, will be that the Pats are in trouble. And there will be wild speculation about going 0-4 or 1-3 without Brady, and that this will open the door for Miami, NYJ, and Buffalo to steal the division. Blah blah blah. I won't worry about any of that at all. I think even if they go 1-3, the Pats should still finish 11-5 and easily make the playoffs. If they go 2-2 the Pats should be a top 2 seed at 12-4. So I'm not worried at all, no matter the final score. I expect the Patriots to lose. I expect JG to have a rough game. This is a very, very tough matchup to start the season for a lot of reasons.

But just imagine the national hand-wringing if the Patriots come into Arizona and win this game on Sunday night. Let's say they win 24-13, like in the best case scenario I describe. An impressive, fairly convincing win over a top quality opponent on the road with your backup QB. It would make everyone go, oh crap. Because if there's ever anything like a statement performance, THAT would be it.

 

[Super Nomario]

Why? The AZ defense is small, and plays a safety at LB. If the Pats run a lot of two TE sets, they could push them around. Plus Develin is back, I think he will help the running game. Blount is healthy and he has looked good in the preseason.
NE's first team defense has looked pretty good to me. I am expecting big things out of Sheard, Long and Flowers. Plus Hightower and Collins are sublime. I think NE will force some turnovers.

You did not mention the OL anywhere in here. If they are as bad as last year, they won't be able to run the ball.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

I think we see changes to the offense vs the preseason. Not whole sale changes, but things like getting Jimmy to roll out of the pocket more by design. The types of things that shrink the field, limit Jimmys options but also limit the decisions and risks he has to take.

It'll come down to turnovers. If Jimmy throw 2 or so picks the pats will lose. If Jimmy protects the ball and the Pats d gets their hands on a couple balls then I like their chances better.

Right now though, as good as I think the Pats D will be, I think it's more likely that Jimmy turns it over more and the pats lose the TO battle.

Lucky for us though that there is some natural variance in Defensive players catching/dropping interceptions hopefully random chance similes upon us.

 

[ShaneTrot]

You did not mention the OL anywhere in here. If they are as bad as last year, they won't be able to run the ball.

I think its a given that the offensive line will be better. Thuney looks really good (he gets to the second level on running plays), Solder is back (hamstring injury is a little scary), Cannon has been good in the preseason. Cooper/Mason should be OK, and Andrews is highly unlikely to head bob and get personal foul penalties.

 

[Super Nomario]

I think its a given that the offensive line will be better. Thuney looks really good (he gets to the second level on running plays), Solder is back (hamstring injury is a little scary), Cannon has been good in the preseason. Cooper/Mason should be OK, and Andrews is highly unlikely to head bob and get personal foul penalties.

I don't think it's a given. They didn't even try to run Week 2 last year and that was before Solder was hurt and they had Vollmer. The guard play should be better, but how much better, especially in the early going, is an open question.

 

[sodenj5]

I think its a given that the offensive line will be better. Thuney looks really good (he gets to the second level on running plays), Solder is back (hamstring injury is a little scary), Cannon has been good in the preseason. Cooper/Mason should be OK, and Andrews is highly unlikely to head bob and get personal foul penalties.

I'm not sure how you can say it's a given. How much of Cooper have you seen? The guy that has just about as many injuries as games played thus far in his career.Cannon has been good against vanilla defenses.

Even if they improve, I think Brady masks a lot of deficiencies with the O-Line. He reads the field and defenses exceptionally well and gets the ball out ridiculously fast. Jimmy G won't read the field as well. He won't process the play as fast. He's likely going to make the O-Line look worse than if TB12 is back there.

 

[Valek123]

To me this entire game revolves around our LB's vs David Johnson. We control him in space, wheel routes and don't miss tackles the Pats stand a very good chance to win the game. They allow him to control the clock and keep moving the ball and put points on the board Arizona will be allowed to do what their D does best... Blitz the hell out of Jimmy G. If we can control the TOP and let the two TE sets assist the running game we'll be ok. It's on the LB's and the new DE's keeping containment for me, those happen we win.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

EDIT: Eh... probably the wrong thread...

 

[bakahump]

Patriots bust out the "Colt Gameplan" and run HARD at the AZ Defense.
IF Blunt gets going downhill with 2 TE and a FB in
AND the Defense can get a turnover (the Colts Gameplan had multiple Turnovers LOL)

Then the Pats win. (Most likely not as big as the Colts 2014 game)

Jimmy G throws for 200-230ish Mostly dumps to Bennet and Gronk with a couple of crucial Edelman Firstdowns.

Chandler Jones ends up on his ass alot Sunday night as the Pats run right at him.

 

[bankshot1]

Nothing I've seen in JG so far shows me he can handle a top-rated NFL defense.Granted I've not seen a lot of JG, no one has..The Pats D looks like it might be a dominant one, with no easy areas to attack, particularly for a Palmer level QB.So I expect the D to keep them in the game.

Assuming no pick 6s, or too many killing turnovers, I expect a low-scoring game, with AZ on top 21-17.

But a close game could be stolen.

FYI the o/u is 47

 

[TheoShmeo]

I think it's relevant when evaluating JG that we have really never seen him (outside of, maybe, that Buffalo game a few years ago) when he had the full regular Pats offense around him. We've never really seen him with a game plan offense, either. Not that I am claiming that he can indeed succeed against a top rated defense but, at the same time, our sample size is both small in number and quite limited in nature.

With Gronk likely out (per Loyko), one could argue that we will not be seeing the regular Pats offense this Sunday night. But I leave room for the possibility that Jimmy will show more when he has the full package to work with.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I think it's relevant when evaluating JG that we have really never seen him (outside of, maybe, that Buffalo game a few years ago) when he had the full regular Pats offense around him. We've never really seen him with a game plan offense, either. Not that I am claiming that he can indeed succeed against a top rated defense but, at the same time, our sample size is both small in number and quite limited in nature.

With Gronk likely out (per Loyko), one could argue that we will not be seeing the regular Pats offense this Sunday night. But I leave room for the possibility that Jimmy will show more when he has the full package to work with.

Where are you seeing that Loyko said Gronk is likely out? There is nothing on his Twitter saying that.

 

[tims4wins]

Gronk had media availability today so I am guessing that may not be true

 

[Van Everyman]

I'm there too, but JG is the one guy positioned best to ruin all of that because he's completely overwhelmed. We have no idea what we're getting; he's never played a pro game that counted for much.

This is one of the few instances in which how you lose -- IF you lose -- likely matters. Potentially, this isn't TB and Co. getting their asses kicked in the Buffalo opener. It's a guy who at all costs has to avoid crapping his pants for the first month.

DCM, man -- when did you become the SoSH worrywart? I mean, sure, JG might crap his pants ... and going 0-4 would both suck and is always possible. But given what we saw from Cassell in '08--shaky start followed by solid play--why would a game or two of nerves spell disaster?

 

[TheoShmeo]

Gronk had media availability today so I am guessing that may not be true

Saw that on FB. Weird. VERY GLAD for that to be wrong.

 

[Stitch01]

I'm there too, but JG is the one guy positioned best to ruin all of that because he's completely overwhelmed. We have no idea what we're getting; he's never played a pro game that counted for much.

This is one of the few instances in which how you lose -- IF you lose -- likely matters. Potentially, this isn't TB and Co. getting their asses kicked in the Buffalo opener. It's a guy who at all costs has to avoid crapping his pants for the first month.

I mostly disagree with this. This is his first real pro game in a bad spot (night/opener/road/good team/good defense) with an OL that's going to be work in progress. He very well might suck out loud and still be fine for the 1-3/2-2 start this team needs. Im not going to be more worried about the Pats start if they lose 35-10 and Jimmy G throws four picks or something. Jimmy G is probably bad. Bad QBs blow up in these spot sometimes. He's going to be in a much better spot for his remaining three starts.

 

[Stitch01]

I'm not sure how you can say it's a given. How much of Cooper have you seen? The guy that has just about as many injuries as games played thus far in his career.Cannon has been good against vanilla defenses.

Even if they improve, I think Brady masks a lot of deficiencies with the O-Line. He reads the field and defenses exceptionally well and gets the ball out ridiculously fast. Jimmy G won't read the field as well. He won't process the play as fast. He's likely going to make the O-Line look worse than if TB12 is back there.

I think its pretty much a given the line is better than at the end of last year. They had like the worst OL continuity score in history and were trotting out street free agents and bad players on one leg by the end of the season. The line can still be bad and be a step above where they finished the season.

 

[dcmissle]

I think the line is about right, but this is a winnable game, even if everything doesn't go just right and even if the Cardinals don't soil themselves. But ball security scares the hell out of me, and it's not just Jimmy G. You win games like this by hanging in early, remaining patient, playing solid on special teams and not putting your defense in hole after hole.

 

[Shelterdog]

DCM, man -- when did you become the SoSH worrywart? I mean, sure, JG might crap his pants ... and going 0-4 would both suck and is always possible. But given what we saw from Cassell in '08--shaky start followed by solid play--why would a game or two of nerves spell disaster?

I would guess about aught three.

I'll trot out my cliche--it's a game plan league so results don't really carry over one week to the next. It's easy for me to imagine Jimmy G getting slaughtered in a tough spot on Sunday and then playing nicely enough his next three games.

 

[Mooch]

After watching last night's game, it seems to me that the Pats best chance for success would be to replicate the Denver offensive game plan (summed up quite well by Danny Kelly at The Ringer this AM: https://theringer.com/denvers-offense-wasn-t-supposed-to-be-this-good-d0976a1231a7#.qu30lrp3m)

• Run a lot of I-formation plays with the fullback lead-blocking to seal Linebackers (Getting Develin back healthy is a key here)
• Play-action bootleg off of those formations (Playing to a strength: Garoppolo's mobility)
• Spread the ball around in the short/intermediate/screen passing game, particularly in the middle of the field

 

[Bowhemian]

After watching last night's game, it seems to me that the Pats best chance for success would be to replicate the Denver offensive game plan (summed up quite well by Danny Kelly at The Ringer this AM: https://theringer.com/denvers-offense-wasn-t-supposed-to-be-this-good-d0976a1231a7#.qu30lrp3m)

• Run a lot of I-formation plays with the fullback lead-blocking to seal Linebackers (Getting Develin back healthy is a key here)
• Play-action bootleg off of those formations (Playing to a strength: Garoppolo's mobility)
• Spread the ball around in the short/intermediate/screen passing game, particularly in the middle of the field

Agree with this strategy. Run the fullback enough times and the inside linebackers start to cheat in a step or 2. This opens up the 8-10 yard drag routes for the tight end and/or slot receiver.

 

[Van Everyman]

Schlereth (I know, I know) was saying on NFL Live that he was impressed with how Jimmy G ran the up tempo/no huddle offense during preseason -- that it reduced the number of reads he had to make and allowed him to use his arm and ability to move around a bit.

I know the Pats are used to the faster pace with Brady, and it seems to make sense in the abstract. But I haven't seen enough of the preseason to know whether Jimmy was any good at this. Any thoughts?

 

[jablo1312]

Honestly, considering they're only around ~30% to win this game, I have no problem not sending two fragile and 2 important players (1 very important, and 1 the most important non-Brady person on the team) to Zona if they don't think they're at 100%. This is the game they were most likely to lose anyways.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Yeah let's not field a full team because everyone thinks we don't have a chance.

Patriots are, what, 10% chance to win the SB. Might as well not even bother with that either.

 

[Stitch01]

They shouldnt punt games, but it makes a lot of sense to be conservative with these players with the kind of injuries they have.

 

[jablo1312]

All I'm saying is I have no problem with them being conservative with the most injury prone guy on the team, especially when it's a minor injury that (anecdotally at least) seems like it can linger for a long.

 

[ifmanis5]

We brought the players we felt would give us the best chance to compete and win the game. /BB