Patriots Playoff Fear Factor
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
Pittsburgh is the second best team in the conference by most metrics - point differential, DVOA, etc. Three of their losses came during a particularly tough streak when Ben was hurt in game (MIA), out (NE), and just returning from injury (BAL). They're currently on a five game winning streak, albeit against fairly poor competition (NYG excepted).
I think PIT is the second best team and KC the third and the best scenarios for the Patriots are going to involve only playing one of them.
I think PIT is the second best team and KC the third and the best scenarios for the Patriots are going to involve only playing one of them.
From most to least:
1. SEA
2. DAL
3. KC
4. NYG
5. OAK
6. PIT
7. DEN
8. GB
9. BAL
10. MIA
11. ATL
12. DET
13. TB
14. TENN
15. INDY
16. BUF
17. HOU
Edit: I suppose Oakland on the road moves up to 3.
Edit2: RE-KC/Pitt Roethlisberger scares me but giant fast pass rushers and blazing return-receivers scare me more against the Pats.
1. SEA
2. DAL
3. KC
4. NYG
5. OAK
6. PIT
7. DEN
8. GB
9. BAL
10. MIA
11. ATL
12. DET
13. TB
14. TENN
15. INDY
16. BUF
17. HOU
Edit: I suppose Oakland on the road moves up to 3.
Edit2: RE-KC/Pitt Roethlisberger scares me but giant fast pass rushers and blazing return-receivers scare me more against the Pats.
In the AFC Pitt/KC are threats but I'm not really concerned as I think a resaonably healthy Pats team is the best team in the AFC.
However on the other side of the draw....
Eli's horseshoe and an improving D seems the most fear-inducing
and then GB with a healthy Rodgers
then Dallas' O-line (the rest of the team not so much)
Seattle? may be too banged up.
But if I had to choose-i want the Pats to beat/destroy the Giants.
However on the other side of the draw....
Eli's horseshoe and an improving D seems the most fear-inducing
and then GB with a healthy Rodgers
then Dallas' O-line (the rest of the team not so much)
Seattle? may be too banged up.
But if I had to choose-i want the Pats to beat/destroy the Giants.
I think on any given Sunday (or Saturday night) the Steelers can beat anyone in the league. Their skill position players are as good as anyone's. Ben on the road is better for the opposition than Ben at home, for sure, but certainly out of 10 games the Steelers done throw up a zero against the Patriots.
I worry about Denver too. Kubiak's not a moron, and now he has tape on some of the strategy we used to beat them.
I also am genuinely curious about how good Miami is. They have shown a resilience under Gaze that I don't associate with them. Week 17 is actually going to be pretty interesting. Hopefully, a Saturday night game in Gillette in 8 degrees will be the only circumstances under which we'd play them, but I have a feeling they are good in a slightly sneaky way that's easy to overlook.
In the NFC, there are lot of teams to worry about. But if we end up playing another NFC team this year I'm really not going to be too fearful one way or other. Just happy. Patriots in the Super Bowl under Belichick seems like a 3 or 4 point proposition one way or the other, so just get there and see what happens.
I worry about Denver too. Kubiak's not a moron, and now he has tape on some of the strategy we used to beat them.
I also am genuinely curious about how good Miami is. They have shown a resilience under Gaze that I don't associate with them. Week 17 is actually going to be pretty interesting. Hopefully, a Saturday night game in Gillette in 8 degrees will be the only circumstances under which we'd play them, but I have a feeling they are good in a slightly sneaky way that's easy to overlook.
In the NFC, there are lot of teams to worry about. But if we end up playing another NFC team this year I'm really not going to be too fearful one way or other. Just happy. Patriots in the Super Bowl under Belichick seems like a 3 or 4 point proposition one way or the other, so just get there and see what happens.
It's funny to see the Giants mentioned so many times. Two weeks ago they were a bad team taking advantage of a weak schedule and then they go out and beat Dallas and Detroit with impressive defensive performances and those SB losses start to rear their ugly head.
I think the Giants are terrible and it's hard to imagine they make the super bowl.
I think the Giants are terrible and it's hard to imagine they make the super bowl.
I want the Giants just because more people in the national media would be talking about all the bad P.R. that the Giants brought on the league this year, and if it's Giants/Patriots it increases the likelihood that the national media does a comparison of how the Giants were treated by the league versus how the Patriots were treated. Also, deflategate karma train for Mara. Also, I want revenge for past Super Bowls.
Living near and working in NYC, Giants fans' chests are really starting to puff out. There are nearly daily articles with SB references now. Would love another crack at them but would also be horrified about the hat trick. Would be MFY level unbearable for those of us here in the city.
How were they looking through 14 games in 2007? Had they lost their 16th game they'd not have even made the playoffs.
I'd love love love to see a Pats vs Giants Bowl.
Both times the Giants peaked at the right time and they are kind of peaking right now, but that offense is still a disaster, outside of Odell. The RB's are especially awful. In both SB's with the Pats, the offense was decent and the Giants had multiple weapons and a solid Eli. Eli isn't solid right now. I haven't done the math but I believe 97% of his total passing yards this year are from YAC with Odell off slants.
That said, watch the Giants win it.
Any playoff team with a QB and some defensive talent can get hot and win it all, not exactly a news flash.
The Giants will almost certainly have to win three road playoff games to make the Super Bowl. Just because they did it in previous years doesn't mean its any more likely this year. Football Outsiders has them with about a 7% chance of making the Super Bowl. I wouldn't lose sleep over it.
Yeah the Giants would be a tough game on paper for the Pats but people are talking about it like we are in the week before the SB as opposed to Week 16. It is likely Eli is going to throw three picks in Detroit and end up getting whisked away.
I feel good about the Pats chances in January, but no game is going to be a cakewalk and any of the playoff teams could win--all it would take is an injury on the o-line, a blown assignment in the secondary, a untimely fumble, etc. Football is the best sport for the nervous sports fan because the separation of Best Team and 12th Best Team can come down to a few minimal things.
Astronomical psychic reward, with corresponding risk if things don't end so well.
Never say never, but:
1. With GB now playing much better on defense, Aaron figures to annihilate this team -- if he's healthy and mobile. Could be a big IF.
2. It's hard to beat a team three times in a season. See Dallas.
3. Seattle has the goods to make their lives miserable. Wilson is elusive and likely to make just enough plays. NY runs against no one, much less Seattle, which figures to make Eli miserable.
This Giants team cannot run the ball, and that's a big limitation.
Interesting that fear means two things here. Team most likely to beat the Pats on any given Sunday? Or the team that if they won would be the most aggravating and irritating. Obviously a SB loss to the Giants would be the worst possible scenario for people who live in proximity to Giants fans. As if it isn't bad enough already.
AFC- Oakland if we have to travel, otherwise they're 3rd then KC/PIT then nobody.
NFC- Don't know the conference well enough. Dallas seems like the obvious answer but they seem like the kind of team that the Pats would beat. I mean look what Washington did to them. The Giants who are dog vomit every third week? Seattle who's hurt and also looks like dog vomit every 3rd week? GB might not even make the playoffs. I feel like Atlanta might be the worst matchup for us but Matt Ryan? Detroit who's biggest asset is that they've borrowed Eli's lucky horse shoe?
AFC- Oakland if we have to travel, otherwise they're 3rd then KC/PIT then nobody.
NFC- Don't know the conference well enough. Dallas seems like the obvious answer but they seem like the kind of team that the Pats would beat. I mean look what Washington did to them. The Giants who are dog vomit every third week? Seattle who's hurt and also looks like dog vomit every 3rd week? GB might not even make the playoffs. I feel like Atlanta might be the worst matchup for us but Matt Ryan? Detroit who's biggest asset is that they've borrowed Eli's lucky horse shoe?
Agreed, and I think its particularly true this year. There just isn't a lot of difference in quality between teams so the Patriots will be favorites in every game but probably in the 55-70% chance of winning range depending on opponent. They can lose to just about anybody and it wouldn't be a big surprise.
The greatest fear is a repeat of the stretch run last year after they clinched a bye. They played the last 2 games with a game plan that was equal parts "afraid to get hurt" and "who cares we are already in the playoffs". All that lead to the tire fire of an AFCCG.
Lockup the HFA throughout and I will then try to get worried about a 3-peat Giants debacle.
Lockup the HFA throughout and I will then try to get worried about a 3-peat Giants debacle.
Why so much fear about the Giants? The reason they beat the Pats in 2 SB's was because of their unstoppable pass rush. That's not the makeup of this current Giants team. JPP isn't healthy and might only be a shell of himself if he comes back in the playoffs. Vernon is good, but not as good as Von Miller who did not pose a threat on Sunday. The strength of this Giants team is in the back end with Jenkins, DRC, Apple, and Landon Collins.
In the AFC, I'd be weary of playing Pittsburgh and possibly Oakland. In the NFC, you have Seattle and Dallas.
In the AFC, I'd be weary of playing Pittsburgh and possibly Oakland. In the NFC, you have Seattle and Dallas.
Their defense seems really good and Spagnuolo is a really good coach. Not quite as good a DC as Wade Phillips, but still . . .
The 2007 and 2011 Giants had like, actual all-pro or HoF players on the defensive line and that is how they won. They may not have looked good through much of the season but it wasn't exactly a huge shock that Justin Tuck, JPP, Umenyiora and Strahan had big games.
This year, they have Vernon who is good, and JPP could come back but they're not at the same level. But while the overall defense is good I don't see the same matchup problems. The Pats have shown that they have the flexibility and players to move the ball against most defenses outside of their offensive line just losing their matchups. I don't think they would have a huge problem with the Giants defense.
I would be most worried about Dallas. They can score, and importantly they can run. It's hard to get them off the field and they don't make a lot of mistakes or turnovers. I think that could be a low-possession game and just one fumble or INT would turn it.
This year, they have Vernon who is good, and JPP could come back but they're not at the same level. But while the overall defense is good I don't see the same matchup problems. The Pats have shown that they have the flexibility and players to move the ball against most defenses outside of their offensive line just losing their matchups. I don't think they would have a huge problem with the Giants defense.
I would be most worried about Dallas. They can score, and importantly they can run. It's hard to get them off the field and they don't make a lot of mistakes or turnovers. I think that could be a low-possession game and just one fumble or INT would turn it.
Teams that give us the most trouble are the ones who can rush the passer and disrupt Brady. So, who is that - KC and Seattle? I'm not scared of Denver after beating them at home.
We said that in january 2012, too.
This is Fear Factor, it doesn't have to be rational. My mix of rationality and irrationality leaves me with:
1. NYG
2. SEA
3. DAL (Belichick vs rookie QB)
4. OAK
5. Bring 'em the hell on
Belichick and Brady are 4-0 against PIT at home (Matt Cassel lost in 2008), and 5-2 at Heinz Field. Their 2015 team was way better than this year's.
Should the Ravers beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh (thus sweeping the season series), Miami would take Pittsburgh's playoff spot away (head to head) with a win in Buffalo or home against NE
That wouldn't be the worst scenario
That wouldn't be the worst scenario
Can someone explain the "Oakland only if we have to go there" sentiment? Is it a weather thing, the crowd in the OC, or the fact that Brady would never walk through an inch of sewer water anywhere, including to play in the AFC Championship game?
I think the Pats are prohibitive favorites to win it all, but I would rank teams likely to beat the Pats as:
1. Seattle - Gronk for Earl Thomas seems fair. Based on what we saw earlier this year, peak Seattle is just better than New England and Pete is the only coach in the league I put on BB's level. Not sure you can predict when you will get peak Seahawks on any particular week, but I have to assume Pete would have them up for the rematch.
2A. Oakland / 2B Pittsburgh - Either of these teams win a shootout with Brady ~35% of the time. The Raiders defense is a little shakier quarters 1-3, but the ability of Mack & Irvin to close games with pressure can't really be denied at this point. Pittsburgh is more consistent and better coached defensively, but Mack has the ability to turn games single handedly that only one or two other players in the league have. Other than Rogers or Wilson, these are the two QBs I want with the ball down 5 and 90 seconds to go.
3 Atlanta - They can win a shootout with the Pats perhaps 25% of the time
4. Dallas - I can see them winning a game where they hold the ball for 40 minutes and score nearly every time they have the ball.
5. GB - same shootout related argument, just much less likely with that defense.
6. NYG - yeah, narrative is fun.
KC, Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Tennessee etc - none of the teams that rely on their defense to win is beating New England this year barring massive injury issues. The Pats line is too good at keeping Brady protected and the Pats have basically all of their non-Gronk weapons at the ready.
I think the Pats are prohibitive favorites to win it all, but I would rank teams likely to beat the Pats as:
1. Seattle - Gronk for Earl Thomas seems fair. Based on what we saw earlier this year, peak Seattle is just better than New England and Pete is the only coach in the league I put on BB's level. Not sure you can predict when you will get peak Seahawks on any particular week, but I have to assume Pete would have them up for the rematch.
2A. Oakland / 2B Pittsburgh - Either of these teams win a shootout with Brady ~35% of the time. The Raiders defense is a little shakier quarters 1-3, but the ability of Mack & Irvin to close games with pressure can't really be denied at this point. Pittsburgh is more consistent and better coached defensively, but Mack has the ability to turn games single handedly that only one or two other players in the league have. Other than Rogers or Wilson, these are the two QBs I want with the ball down 5 and 90 seconds to go.
3 Atlanta - They can win a shootout with the Pats perhaps 25% of the time
4. Dallas - I can see them winning a game where they hold the ball for 40 minutes and score nearly every time they have the ball.
5. GB - same shootout related argument, just much less likely with that defense.
6. NYG - yeah, narrative is fun.
KC, Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Tennessee etc - none of the teams that rely on their defense to win is beating New England this year barring massive injury issues. The Pats line is too good at keeping Brady protected and the Pats have basically all of their non-Gronk weapons at the ready.
I think part of the thing with Oakland is that, even though they are having a great year, there just isn't the recent history there to keep them on the radar very much.
My perception of the Raiders is that this year they have been a bit of a find-a-way team. That is, they haven't really been dominant in any particular game, but have had an uncanny way to find a way to win the close ones. Since the Patriots are kind of a paradigmatic find-a-way team, I guess that just kind of makes me feel ok if the Patriots had to play them.
But all that is probably a mistake. Oakland also happens to be a really good team. Really good. It's just kind of hard to accept, since, well, they are Oakland. The teams that have dropped the Patriots in the playoffs in recent years share pretty common attributes -- they punch you in the mouth, and they keep punching you in the mouth until you're down on the ground. The Ravens especially in that freezing AFCCG a few years ago and the Broncos. I don't really associate 2016 Oakland with that sort of team, especially if they have to come to Gillette, but again that's probably a mistake. The one game that gives me pause is not really any particular game Oakland has played this year but the game it played in Denver last year. That second half is the kind of defensive performance that beats the Patriots in the playoffs, and if they play against the Patriots, or anyone, like they did that day in the second half, they are very tough to beat.
My perception of the Raiders is that this year they have been a bit of a find-a-way team. That is, they haven't really been dominant in any particular game, but have had an uncanny way to find a way to win the close ones. Since the Patriots are kind of a paradigmatic find-a-way team, I guess that just kind of makes me feel ok if the Patriots had to play them.
But all that is probably a mistake. Oakland also happens to be a really good team. Really good. It's just kind of hard to accept, since, well, they are Oakland. The teams that have dropped the Patriots in the playoffs in recent years share pretty common attributes -- they punch you in the mouth, and they keep punching you in the mouth until you're down on the ground. The Ravens especially in that freezing AFCCG a few years ago and the Broncos. I don't really associate 2016 Oakland with that sort of team, especially if they have to come to Gillette, but again that's probably a mistake. The one game that gives me pause is not really any particular game Oakland has played this year but the game it played in Denver last year. That second half is the kind of defensive performance that beats the Patriots in the playoffs, and if they play against the Patriots, or anyone, like they did that day in the second half, they are very tough to beat.
I'm not so sure about Seattle. I agree with almost everything you wrote, including the peak Seattle is better than peak New England, but its still really hard to know what to make of them, especially post-Thomas injury. Point differential in their last four games is -9, +33, -28, +21, which is just a crazy stretch of football. It wouldn't surprise me to see them in the Super Bowl as favorites. It also wouldn't surprise me to see them lose their first playoff game.
I also think KC is better than you give them credit for. If they could keep Oakland's offense in check enough to win twice then they can do the same with New England.
KC is also one loss away from having their playoff status in jeopardy.
From what I can tell from the 538 playoff simulator tool (may not be 100% correct), they only miss the playoffs if they lose out, Miami wins out, Baltimore wins out, and Pittsburgh wins its other (non-BAL) game. They will have the tiebreaker over Denver no matter what, which is big for them.
My mistake, I thought they had 5 losses and not 4. Yes you are correct they should be in with 1 win.
For me the "fear" of the Giants is more anxiety about the possibility of losing another SB to them versus any credible fear of their players or the matchup.
I am sure we all have some direct or indirect contact with Giants fans. I may have to kill the one in my social circle if the Giants somehow get a 3rd against the Pats.
I understand the anxiety. Hell, I married a Giants fan and I live on LI so believe me I understand.
You are probably right on this. For me (and most Raider fans) the 2016 Chiefs relative to the Raiders are like the 2015 Broncos were relative to last year's Pats team. I could very easily find myself wondering how that fuck that team beat us and ended our season even though they shouldn't have been able to hang with the Raiders once, much less three times. Reid, Sutton and the Chiefs' staff have some weird mojo on DelRio, Musgrave and Carr.
Don't underestimate the power of kicks bouncing off of goalposts, pick twos after you gave up the lead and 21 point comebacks in the last 8 minutes.
There is every reason to be nervous about Oakland: they are a very very good team and Carr is excellent. (I'd be very nervous about any of the top 9 on my list above.) But Tyreek Hill and Justin Houston seem like the sort of players that sometimes you can't do anything about them that KC gives me another level of concern.
I love the fact that SEA/DAL/NYG/GB will bloody themselves in the NFC bracket to the point that the sole survivor will be a shadow of itself come February.
The two weeks between the Championship Games and the Super Bowl makes that moot, unless their is a legitimate injury to a player.
Just for fun...
In the last 10 years, there have been only three times that teams from the same division met in the playoffs after one had swept the other in the regular season: in 2009/10, Dallas beat Philadelphia for the third time; in 2008/09, Pittsburgh beat Baltimore for the third time; in 2007/08, the NYG beat Dallas despite losing to them twice in the regular season.
This is exactly where I am at with this.
It's bad enough those assholes ruined the perfect season with their 10-6 wild card march to the Super Bowl, but to get back there at 9-7 by winning vs a rusty Green Bay team and then score basically all their points in the NFCCG off of fumbled/muffed punts was just infuriating.
The thought of playing them again would suck all the fun out of the game for me, never mind if they lose to them for a third time.
I have a customer from New York who is a huge Giants fan and I would have to hop a cab, fly to New York, go to his house, ring his doorbell, punch his lights out and then leave, a la Stewie Griffin and Will Ferrell..............................
This is absolutely correct. That game was perfect. I was literally sitting there thinking
oh my god this call should be overturned and I know somewhere Ben Dreith is watching but........ good things like that never happen to the Patriots.
Oakland. Only team in the AFC with a good QB and a good pass rush.
Any SB matchup will be tricky, but then, it's the Superbowl. You ain't playing the little sisters of the poor in the Superbowl.
Any SB matchup will be tricky, but then, it's the Superbowl. You ain't playing the little sisters of the poor in the Superbowl.
Not true. Playing the Little Sisters of the Poor is how Peyton got his only Super Bowl ring.