I think running a bunch of sims helps shed some light on the new lottery odds. Yes it's meaningless, but there's 8+ hours to kill.
You mean we don't actually have an effect on the lottery?I just ran 25. I pulled the 2 and the 3 once each, but the Memphis pick conveyed only 10 times.
This is completely meaningless.
Right, which is why I think the story is nonsense.Yes.
Either way, it's not assuming Kyrie, which in theory they could still afford, no?
Maybe it knows what you want to happen and shows you the opposite? I decided to do this just once, for fun. The Celtics got the #2 pick and the Knicks #3. If this happens tonight, I will murder somebody.Here's a simulator. It took me like a million tries to get the Cs a top 4.
Odds are here if anyone needs themI think running a bunch of sims helps shed some light on the new lottery odds. Yes it's meaningless, but there's 8+ hours to kill.
Depends on what you are wearing and where you are sitting. Duh.You mean we don't actually have an effect on the lottery?
So ... pretty much like a wedding receptionDepends on what you are wearing and where you are sitting. Duh.
Isn't that what we want so the Memphis pick conveys to 2020 where it is only top 6 protected, and then 2021 where it is unprotected?I am seeing Memphis at 2-4 way too often for my liking
No because 2-4 helps them a hell of a lot more than 8.Isn't that what we want so the Memphis pick conveys to 2020 where it is only top 6 protected, and then 2021 where it is unprotected?
We get the Kings pick no matter where it falls UNLESS it's #1.Can someone give me a quick breakdown on where the picks need to fall for the Celtics to get them?
First recall that the only picks subject to lottery are picks 1-4. The teams that jump to 1-4 are picked via weighted odds, and then picks 5-14 are filled in based on the pre-lottery order of everybody who didn't get a pick 1-4.Can someone give me a quick breakdown on where the picks need to fall for the Celtics to get them?
Personally I would rather get #9 than Memphis get #1 (6.0% chance), but without getting Zion, I think the team sucks just as hard next year.Looking solely at the Memphis pick - at what point would you rather see it convey this year as opposed to them getting one of the top 4 picks? Just if they hit on #1? Or does the #2 pick worry you enough that they might climb out of the lottery next year?
Yeah I think that's where I'm at too given the Zion and everyone else assessment that this draft seems to have.Personally I would rather get #9 than Memphis get #1 (6.0% chance), but without getting Zion, I think the team sucks just as hard next year.
This wins the prize for Most On-Brand Post.Agree with this. Need teams with an established 5s to win the Zion lottery (so they don't turn him into AD) so Wolves and Suns fit. Cavs also because they are in a complete rebuild.
Along w/ Memphis, NYK, Lakers I'd add Dallas as a worse case because I think they would turn Zion into AD.
Would have been unanimous by the judges if he'd thrown in a gratuitously all-caps mention of "BIGs".This wins the prize for Most On-Brand Post.
Italicized “small ball” in disdainful quotes would also not be amiss.Would have been unanimous by the judges if he'd thrown in a gratuitously all-caps mention of "BIGs".
Zion will be a great player, but even if he led the Grizz to 35 wins they’re going to be a lottery team next year. And I’d rather have a late lottery pick in the ‘20 pool than the ‘19 one.Personally I would rather get #9 than Memphis get #1 (6.0% chance), but without getting Zion, I think the team sucks just as hard next year.
Yeah, even generational players just don’t move the needle right away, unless it’s a Duncan to the Spurs situation.Zion will be a great player, but even if he led the Grizz to 35 wins they’re going to be a lottery team next year. And I’d rather have a late lottery pick in the ‘20 pool than the ‘19 one.
#9 this year vs. #9 next year has to factor in that we don't have to wait a year for the guy too. I'm assuming that you did, so next year is that much better to overcome that? Or is it more about the Celtics roster?Zion will be a great player, but even if he led the Grizz to 35 wins they’re going to be a lottery team next year. And I’d rather have a late lottery pick in the ‘20 pool than the ‘19 one.
If it’s 1 for 1, that’s different from the Zion plus a few more assets deals that people have been talking about. I love AD, but even those three superstars would need a supporting cast.Why wouldn't the Knicks trade Zion for Davis? Especially if they think/know they would be getting Kyrie and Duirant
Presumably because KD/Kyrie/AD wins you a title if you put them together. Zion may be an elite prospect but he's not ready to be the first, second or third option on a title team next year. It's choosing the present over the long-term future of the franchise, a very Knicks thing to do.Why wouldn't the Knicks trade Zion for Davis? Especially if they think/know they would be getting Kyrie and Duirant
How could anyone possibly top a Zion deal? It would be Zion and salary filler, IMO. And then you use Knox and the Mavs picks to get some quality vet supporting cast upgrades.If it’s 1 for 1, that’s different from the Zion plus a few more assets deals that people have been talking about. I love AD, but even those three superstars would need a supporting cast.
I’m one of the few fans of this draft, but even I’ll admit that what it’s rich in is roleplayer talent. There are a couple of real wildcard guys, like Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Junior Porter, but Boston would get a shot at them whether or not they get #9.#9 this year vs. #9 next year has to factor in the that we don't have to wait a year for the guy too. I'm assuming that you did, so next year is that much better to overcome that? Or is it more about the Celtics roster?
It's not hard to imagine, there is a 60 percent chance that is what will happen.Imagine if this comes true and the Knicks actually get the #5 pick.
Your rational evaluation of key figures' motivations and decision frameworks is a lot less fun than paranoid conspiracy-theorizing.Silver is shepherding a league that's already on top of its game. They won't rig anything. Stern doing so, like five years past the abyss of little to no network TV coverage, was a calculated risk (if that even happened, of course). No need to do that now.
If the NBA wanted a resurgence of Knicks/Lakers basketball, he'd do something about their shitty ownership groups.
He gave off the vibe (probably deserved) that he would do anything and everything to make the league succeed. I'd be shocked if he didn't pull shady shit during his tenure, but agree with jimbo that it's no longer necessary now that the league is wildly successful.Your rational evaluation of key figures' motivations and decision frameworks is a lot less fun than paranoid conspiracy-theorizing.
(I've always kinda wondered why David Stern in particular was such a lightning rod for conspiracy theorizing, though - not just that draft but the Jordan career hiatus, rigging Lakers-Kings Game 6, etc)
I would also add that the Donaghy scandal occurred on his watch - I wouldn't lay the blame at Sterns feet for that but in most organizations, a person in his position would be dismissed for a similar type of incident. Add to that the fact that Scott Foster was able to remain employed by the league - again had Foster worked in corporate America, I argue he would have been gone simply because of optics - and there is some of the fuel for the Stern conspiracies.He gave off the vibe (probably deserved) that he would do anything and everything to make the league succeed. I'd be shocked if he didn't pull shady shit during his tenure, but agree with jimbo that it's no longer necessary now that the league is wildly successful.
They probably would, but theres a risk that AD or KD is unhappy and leaves after year 1, or Kyrie does the same after year 2. So there’s a rational argument that they should sign a bunch of JAGs to one-year deals to roll over their cap space, let Zion put up 20 and 10 on a shitty team next season, then pair him with two max guys from the 2020 class and whatever they can get for their 2020 lottery pick.Why wouldn't the Knicks trade Zion for Davis? Especially if they think/know they would be getting Kyrie and Duirant
Not much, especially since a trading partner would likely have to take Morris or Rozier on a S/T to make the numbers work. If Kyrie is leaving, I think Danny keeps the picks.I wonder what packaging the 14th and 10th pick in a trade will get us.
I feel the gambling tingles. Such small odds to hit a big one but not impossible.Why am I so nervous?
They've replaced the original ping-pong balls with Folger's crystal balls?Why am I so nervous?