Playoff Fear Factor: Which EC team is your top concern?

Which potential Eastern Conference playoff foe concerns you the most?

  • Bucks

    Votes: 76 40.4%
  • Cavs

    Votes: 6 3.2%
  • Knicks

    Votes: 8 4.3%
  • Sixers

    Votes: 16 8.5%
  • Heat

    Votes: 43 22.9%
  • Pacers

    Votes: 2 1.1%
  • Magic

    Votes: 5 2.7%
  • Bulls

    Votes: 1 0.5%
  • Hawks

    Votes: 2 1.1%
  • No team concerns me more than any other

    Votes: 29 15.4%

  • Total voters
    188

BigSoxFan

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The Celtics are clearly the best team in the league but that guarantees nothing, as we all know. Assuming good health, which EC team gives you the most concern as a fan? For me, it is probably Milwaukee given the Giannis factor. The Knicks with a healthy Randle might have challenged that but alas. Curious where others land.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Bucks. That team has problems….but they also have Giannis and Dame. Throw in the potential for Middleton to go off in a key game as he is wont to do against the C’s and I have a healthy respect for their ability to push them in a series.
 

jablo1312

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Sep 20, 2005
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Milwaukee's top lineup (Giannis-Dame-Middleton-Lopez- w/ Beasley or Crowder as the 5th) are up there as the best unit by net rating the league w/ 250 minutes or more playing time. Doesn't mean they're gonna play like that in the playoffs, but they are still absolutely a threat, recent swoon aside. The Celtics would be rightly favored, but Milwaukee is live if that series occurs if both sides are healthy; I don't think I'd say that about any other team in the East unless Embiid gets back to full health.
 

lovegtm

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I wanted to say Miami, and they'd be #2. But it has to be the Bucks, despite all their flaws, just because of the top-end talent.
 

Auger34

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I wanted to say Miami, and they'd be #2. But it has to be the Bucks, despite all their flaws, just because of the top-end talent.
Miami I guess I fear just because I've never actually thought they could beat Boston in the playoffs and yet they have....but, if we are all being logical here, it has to be Milwaukee
 

lovegtm

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Miami I guess I fear just because I've never actually thought they could beat Boston in the playoffs and yet they have....but, if we are all being logical here, it has to be Milwaukee
I don't think it's crazy to think
- Miami has an extra playoff gear and proven playoff game-elevators
- Giannis can be contained and made inefficient by a focused, physical defense (we've seen that movie a lot)

If you believe those things, I think one could reasonably get to being more afraid of Miami. I'm not personally there, but it's close.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Miami and only Miami. Love our matchup with the Bucks and feel we’d dispense of them fairly easily. The Heat know how to prepare for and how to win playoff games and a playoff series.
 

tims4wins

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Define concern. I'm not concerned about anyone beating the Celts. I'm concerned about Miami beating up the Celts.
 

lars10

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Milwaukee's top lineup (Giannis-Dame-Middleton-Lopez- w/ Beasley or Crowder as the 5th) are up there as the best unit by net rating the league w/ 250 minutes or more playing time. Doesn't mean they're gonna play like that in the playoffs, but they are still absolutely a threat, recent swoon aside. The Celtics would be rightly favored, but Milwaukee is live if that series occurs if both sides are healthy; I don't think I'd say that about any other team in the East unless Embiid gets back to full health.
Is it a recent swoon? Isn’t Milwaukee 18-20 on the road? (Not sure if that’s since doc took over or for the season)

edit: I’m not trying to discount GA.. but if teams are allowed to play him physically with fewer whistles.. that’d be huge. I’ve seen him get frustrated and much more passive when he’s getting bodied.
 

lovegtm

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Miami and only Miami. Love our matchup with the Bucks and feel we’d dispense of them fairly easily. The Heat know how to prepare for and how to win playoff games and a playoff series.
I'm trying to give Giannis and Dame their credit as top players, but I think you're not crazy at all.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm trying to give Giannis and Dame their credit as top players, but I think you're not crazy at all.
I mean I’d obv prefer the Knicks, Pacers or Bulls and Milwaukee I’d place below Cleveland but only the Heat would make me buckle up and cringe. That entire team rallies around the pressure Playoff Jimmy puts on the defenses.
 

BigSoxFan

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Define concern. I'm not concerned about anyone beating the Celts. I'm concerned about Miami beating up the Celts.
Concern about somebody beating the Celtics in a series by any means. If the Celtics bring their “A” game consistently and remain healthy, they’re in very good shape of making another finals. But they’re not unbeatable so the question is which team can bring the worst out of the Celtics or their own BS luck (obviously the latter is impossible to forecast).
 

tims4wins

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Concern about somebody beating the Celtics in a series by any means. If the Celtics bring their “A” game consistently and remain healthy, they’re in very good shape of making another finals. But they’re not unbeatable so the question is which team can bring the worst out of the Celtics or their own BS luck (obviously the latter is impossible to forecast).
They're unbeatable in the East.
 

Smokey Joe

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Miami because they are the most likely to injure one of our top 6 before the get eliminated.
 

BigSoxFan

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They're unbeatable in the East.
Disagree. Nobody is unbeatable. Shit happens in the playoffs. Last year should have taught us this lesson. I do think the odds of another Miami series are lower now that the Celtics are better but you just never know. Somebody will stretch this team to 6 or 7 games. The playoffs are almost never a cakewalk.
 

Ed Hillel

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It would have been a fully operational Knicks team…and it might still be an OG-healthy Knicks team, but really any series that gets to 7 games in the East without injuries would be a bit of a letdown. I guess the Bucks by default, but with three of their top 7 fighting injuries, I don’t even know it’s likely they get past Round 2.
Still very reasonably priced at -145 which has slowly ticked up from -110 of 3-4 weeks ago.
What exactly have people seen to cause that change lol. Boston has played lights out, while other contenders have gotten injured.
 

bankshot1

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In a 7 game series Imo only the Celts can beat the Celts. But, and I've said this before, I think Miami is the only team in the East savvy enough and possesses the discipline, to exploit the Celts Achilles heel.
 

Ed Hillel

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The key to the Heat’s success last year was their bench bums going on a historically great run. I don’t really fear that happening again, so Spo and Himmy No Rings can eat it. Celtics in 5 if that crap happens.
 

dhellers

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Any answer other than the Heat is a lie.
The concern is at what %ile of Heat performance lead to Celtics defeat, compared to %ile of the Bucks.

The wisdom here is that the Heat have a higher average, but a lower high end.
IOW: Bucks playing their best is more dangerous than Heat playing their best, while Bucks playing at their average is less dangerous than Heat playing at their average.
IOW2: To beat these Celtics: the Heat need to play at their 95%ile, while Bucks need to play at their 90%ile (or something like that).

Which means Bucks are more dangerous.

Of course, the "getting beat up isn't good for long term success" is a concern that makes the Heat more problematic.
 

bigq

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Heat. I am still carrying scars from last year’s ECF. I was sure the Celtics would win that series. This year’s Celtics are better than last year’s version so I guess recency bias is probably clouding my judgement.
 

mikeford

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To be clear, I don't really think the Heat would win against the Celtics.

But the series would probably be grueling and suck and take much needed energy from the Celtics that they will want for say... the Bucks in the ECF.
 

lars10

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The key to the Heat’s success last year was their bench bums going on a historically great run. I don’t really fear that happening again, so Spo and Himmy No Rings can eat it. Celtics in 5 if that crap happens.
Heat just feel like they don't care at all about the regular season and then they show up in the playoffs and are annoying. Never know what to expect with that team.

When it all comes down to it.. can and EC team beat the C's at home? Because the opponent probably needs to sweep their home games to have a shot of winning a series.
 

tims4wins

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Heat. I am still carrying scars from last year’s ECF. I was sure the Celtics would win that series. This year’s Celtics are better than last year’s version so I guess recency bias is probably clouding my judgement.
Exactly. That's what I meant by my post.
 

NomarsFool

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I’m not afraid of losing to the Sixers but I am afraid of Embiid injuring Horford and KP
 

Ed Hillel

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Heat just feel like they don't care at all about the regular season and then they show up in the playoffs and are annoying. Never know what to expect with that team.

When it all comes down to it.. can and EC team beat the C's at home? Because the opponent probably needs to sweep their home games to have a shot of winning a series.
Realistically, they should have to win at least 2. Boston is 27-13 on the road.
 

lovegtm

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What exactly have people seen to cause that change lol. Boston has played lights out, while other contenders have gotten injured.
Unless what little remains of my mind has deserted me, HRB is saying that the odds have been moving TOWARDS the Celtics more the past couple weeks, and they are now bigger favorites than they were.
 

Ed Hillel

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Unless what little remains of my mind has deserted me, HRB is saying that the odds have been moving TOWARDS the Celtics more the past couple weeks, and they are now bigger favorites than they were.
My bad, I read that backwards. That makes a lot more sense :)
 

teddykgb

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It’s the Heat for me but I’d like to make a case for the Magic. They managed to beat us once and I thought played us tough consistently. I could see them giving us a 7 game scare a la the old Hawks teams
 

Euclis20

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Heat just feel like they don't care at all about the regular season and then they show up in the playoffs and are annoying. Never know what to expect with that team.

When it all comes down to it.. can and EC team beat the C's at home? Because the opponent probably needs to sweep their home games to have a shot of winning a series.
I see this again and again, am I the only one that remembers that the Heat were the 1 seed in the East two years ago? They cared about the regular season then, what happened? They were better 2 years ago (and 4 years ago), and they made a miracle run to the finals last year on the back of unsustainably hot shooting (and Jimmy Butler having by far the best playoff series of his career). I am not remotely worried about this trash Heat team. Maybe Heat culture really is just not trying in the regular season and expecting to flip the switch in the playoffs, but I think if last year's ECF were played ten times, Miami would have been lucky to win twice. Now Boston is better, and Miami looks basically the same.

Then again, I wasn't the least bit afraid of them last Spring, and we saw how that turned out.
 

slamminsammya

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It took the Heat having an insane shooting streak combined with the Celtics becoming crazily ice cold plus a Tatum injury to win that series in 7. I don’t want to play them just because i’m sick of seeing them, but Milwaukee is more dangerous to me.
 

lars10

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I see this again and again, am I the only one that remembers that the Heat were the 1 seed in the East two years ago? They cared about the regular season then, what happened? They were better 2 years ago (and 4 years ago), and they made a miracle run to the finals last year on the back of unsustainably hot shooting (and Jimmy Butler having by far the best playoff series of his career). I am not remotely worried about this trash Heat team. Maybe Heat culture really is just not trying in the regular season and expecting to flip the switch in the playoffs, but I think if last year's ECF were played ten times, Miami would have been lucky to win twice. Now Boston is better, and Miami looks basically the same.

Then again, I wasn't the least bit afraid of them last Spring, and we saw how that turned out.
You’re probably right.. maybe it’s more that Butler seems disinterested.. but I also think load management has changed a lot over the past couple years. Maybe it’s too easy to say they don’t care and more that they just care about getting in since their ‘style’ of defense is geared to the playoffs when refs swallow their whistles.
 

Euclis20

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You’re probably right.. maybe it’s more that Butler seems disinterested.. but I also think load management has changed a lot over the past couple years. Maybe it’s too easy to say they don’t care and more that they just care about getting in since their ‘style’ of defense is geared to the playoffs when refs swallow their whistles.
Anything is possible, but is Butler disinterested? Or is he just a 34 year old who has suffered a bunch of nagging injuries this year? Maybe he turns it on in the playoffs (and his on/off numbers are still excellent), but I think the Heat essentially had everything land perfectly for them in the EC playoffs last year (including the injury to Herro, which opened the door for better defenders who happened to get red hot from 3). If they do something similar this year, we may as well just toss out the regular season entirely.
 

Euclis20

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You’re probably right.. maybe it’s more that Butler seems disinterested.. but I also think load management has changed a lot over the past couple years. Maybe it’s too easy to say they don’t care and more that they just care about getting in since their ‘style’ of defense is geared to the playoffs when refs swallow their whistles.
Anything is possible, but is Butler disinterested? Or is he just a 34 year old who has suffered a bunch of nagging injuries this year? Maybe he turns it on in the playoffs (and his on/off numbers are still excellent), but I think the Heat essentially had everything land perfectly for them in the EC playoffs last year (including the injury to Herro, which opened the door for better defenders who happened to get red hot from 3). If they do something similar this year, we may as well just toss out the regular season entirely.
 

lars10

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Anything is possible, but is Butler disinterested? Or is he just a 34 year old who has suffered a bunch of nagging injuries this year? Maybe he turns it on in the playoffs (and his on/off numbers are still excellent), but I think the Heat essentially had everything land perfectly for them in the EC playoffs last year (including the injury to Herro, which opened the door for better defenders who happened to get red hot from 3). If they do something similar this year, we may as well just toss out the regular season entirely.
Yeah.. you’re prob right again. Last year was totally fluky and this year’s Celtics seem to be able to play against anything.. including Miami’s dreaded zone.
 

Euclis20

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Jimmy Butler's greatest trick is somehow not letting the world notice that he's invisible for large stretches, even entire playoff games. That's how everyone thinks Butler outplays Tatum in their playoff matchups, even though in their three playoff series (20 games), Tatum has averaged 26/9/6 with a TS% of .584, compared with Butler whose averaged 23/7/5 with a TS% of .546. Butler is far better at avoiding turnovers, but aside from that Tatum is (and has been) better in basically every way (despite just starting his prime in these matchups, while Butler has been there all along).

Nothing would make me happier than this trash team losing the play-in and missing the playoffs entirely, but it's not because I'm worried about facing them. I'm just sick of everyone acting like Heat Culture is anything other than underperforming in the regular season, and winning absolutely nothing without Lebron.
 

BigSoxFan

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Jimmy Butler's greatest trick is somehow not letting the world notice that he's invisible for large stretches, even entire playoff games. That's how everyone thinks Butler outplays Tatum in their playoff matchups, even though in their three playoff series (20 games), Tatum has averaged 26/9/6 with a TS% of .584, compared with Butler whose averaged 23/7/5 with a TS% of .546. Butler is far better at avoiding turnovers, but aside from that Tatum is (and has been) better in basically every way (despite just starting his prime in these matchups, while Butler has been there all along).

Nothing would make me happier than this trash team losing the play-in and missing the playoffs entirely, but it's not because I'm worried about facing them. I'm just sick of everyone acting like Heat Culture is anything other than underperforming in the regular season, and winning absolutely nothing without Lebron.
I’m glad that you have blocked out their 2006 title with DWade and Shaq :)
 

TrapperAB

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The fact that Lowry isn’t with the Heat makes me irrationally confident that we can beat Miami.

Maybe that’s because the odds of a Celtic injury go down significantly with Lowry in Philly (unless we play Philly, of course).
 

benhogan

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Nothing would make me happier than this trash team losing the play-in and missing the playoffs entirely, but it's not because I'm worried about facing them. I'm just sick of everyone acting like Heat Culture is anything other than underperforming in the regular season, and winning absolutely nothing without Lebron.
Well put.

Just finished watching the Heat lose at home to the 76ers, but they still are a hangnail. I picked them over the Bucks

2024 Heat have slightly more talent than last year's version IMO
OUT: Lowry, Strus, Gabe Vincent
IN: Rozier, JJJ, Jovic
 

slamminsammya

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Well put.

Just finished watching the Heat lose at home to the 76ers, but they still are a hangnail. I picked them over the Bucks

2024 Heat have slightly more talent than last year's version IMO
OUT: Lowry, Strus, Gabe Vincent
IN: Rozier, JJJ, Jovic
highsmith has come on too.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah Spo is such a genius. Telling his guys to just hit everyone on the arms until the refs get tired of calling fouls. Genius stuff.
So you’re mocking the guy who is the consensus 1-2 coach with Pop over the last two decades bc you don’t like how his teams play effectively? Awesome take.
 

lars10

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So you’re mocking the guy who is the consensus 1-2 coach with Pop over the last two decades bc you don’t like how his teams play effectively? Awesome take.
Why is Spoelstra better than Kerr over that time?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Why is Spoelstra better than Kerr over that time?
Seriously? More with less, in-game strategy & adjustments, etc etc. He’s one of the few NBA coaches who are true difference makers and why Pat Riley signed him to a $120m contract.
 

lars10

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Seriously? More with less, in-game strategy & adjustments, etc etc. He’s one of the few NBA coaches who are true difference makers and why Pat Riley signed him to a $120m contract.
Yes, seriously.. I guess I’m asking because Kerr has a .687 win percentage and 4 titles.. Spoelstra .588 with 2.. 11 years ago when he had LeBron and Wade. His teams do well in the playoffs, but they’ve also finished at or below .500 3 of the last ten years. At what point does actually winning the championship matter vs getting to the finals or ECF and losing?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yes, seriously.. I guess I’m asking because Kerr has a .687 win percentage and 4 titles.. Spoelstra .588 with 2.. 11 years ago when he had LeBron and Wade. His teams do well in the playoffs, but they’ve also finished at or below .500 3 of the last ten years. At what point does actually winning the championship matter vs getting to the finals or ECF and losing?
It goes much much deeper than wins and losses. A NBA coach is judged by how his team performs based off personnel expectations and the strength of his in-game adjustments. The Heat have overachieved their personnel on a consistent basis for many years and counting while his in-game coaching has been raves about by many over that same time frame. KC Jones made the Finals every year in Boston….the Sonics quickly found out how much value that carries.