Too soon! Threads like this always worrying me
I've been itching to start a postseason priorities thread, so I'll spring to RR's defense here. At least this is only like ten games ahead.
It's important to talk about. I'll start: per all of the various postseason projections, the AL bracket looks to be shaping up as follows. Barring a remarkable implosion, the Rays are likely to take both the East title (98.8% — so, the sort of collapse we'd expect to see in a division leader every 16 years or so) and most likely the top seed. Fangraphs projects the Rays to be two games ahead of the Astros when all is said and done. The projections have Houston hosting Chicago for three fifths of one ALDS, and Tampa with home field against the WC winners.
So, as things stand today, the most likely outcomes have the Red Sox clinching WC 1 in the last few days of the season. The fact that we hold the tiebreaker against both NYY and TOR really helps here — even if we go into game 162 only up 1.0 game over our rival, we've clinched — and I think that is a big part of why Fangraphs gives us a 91% to take a WC spot despite only a 1.5 game lead with ten to play. Fangraphs also sees it as about twice as likely for Toronto to take the second slot than NY, and only grants about a 10% likelihood that it is Toronto and NY in that game, with Boston on the outside looking in.
So. Our rotation is lined up as such *crosses self*:
Sep 17 Sale (7-1 W against Baltimore)
Sep 18 Pivetta (9-3 W against Baltimore)
Sep 19 Eovaldi (8-6 W against Baltimore)
Sep 21 Rodriguez (6-3 W against NYM)
Sep 22 Sale against NYM (4 days rest)
Sep 24 Eovaldi against NYY (4 days rest, hopping Pivetta)
Sep 25 Pivetta against NYY (6 days rest)
Sep 26 Rodriguez against NYY (5 days rest)
Thus far things have been announced. But we can extrapolate.
Sep 28 Sale at Baltimore (5 days rest)
Sep 29 Eovaldi at Baltimore (4 days rest)
Sep 30 Pivetta at Baltimore (4 days rest)
Oct 1 Rodriguez at Washington (4 days rest)
Oct 2 Sale at Washington (4 days rest)
Oct 3 Eovaldi at Washington (4 days rest)
If we make the Wild Card Game *touches wood*:
Oct 5 WCG vs. TOR or NYY.
This would be Pivetta on 4 days rest, Rodriguez on 3, Sale on 2, or Eovaldi on 1. Unless we start, e.g., Martin Perez on Oct 3 because we've already clinched, and hold back Eovaldi to start this game on 6 days rest. Eovaldi matches up very well against NY, although they are no longer *quite* as right handed as they were, and acceptably against Toronto. I don't think any pitcher matches up
well against Toronto, exactly.
So IMO, if we've clinched before that last game in Washington, it would be ideal to hold back Eovaldi to pitch in the WC game. But if we don't, and need to throw Sale and Eovaldi in the DC series, it's probably Houck and Pivetta piggy-backing in the WCG with all hands on deck. You could still ask Sale for an inning or two, but it would make more sense IMO to hold him back for a possible ALDS G1 on regular rest if you possibly can.
And, if we
survive the WCG *says a silent prayer to BABIP*:
Oct 7 ALDS G1. Sale at TBR (4 days rest).
Oct 8 ALDS G2. Rodriguez at TBR (6 days rest).
Oct 10 ALDS G3. Eovaldi against TBR (4 days rest)
Oct 11 ALDS G4. Pivetta against TBR (?? days rest)
Oct 13 ALDS G5. Sale at TBR (5 days rest)