RealFantasy Pigskin 2013: Draft and Discussion

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I know QB pickings are slim at this point, but I've never been impressed by Bradford. His stats stink, too. He's never had much help in St. Louis, but he looks like the next Trent Edwards or Jason Campbell to me.

 
Trent Edwards? Really?  I can think of a lot of comps for Sam Bradford but that sure isn't one of them.
 
His stats were horrible in 2011, when the team imploded, and probably overrated in 2010.  But I'm not sure what about his 2012 counting stats or his 17th ranked DVOA, in the context of one of the worst supporting casts in the league, really stinks.
 
In the end, however, I don't think stats alone tell a very good story for any young QB.  Team context is huge, especially for guys who are breaking into the league. What kind of stats do you think Kaepernick would have put up with the 2011 Rams?

 

[ragnarok725]

I was hoping that Bowman or Green would slip, but absent those I've been having a real hard time choosing between a few protection and pass rushing options. In the end, though, I had to give Cam a weapon. The LA Rams bring WR Larry Fitzgerald to a big market where he can work on some Hall of Fame cred.
 

 
I know the concerns about his performance this year, but I don't buy that it's a slip in skills. He's got the kind of WR skillset that ages better than most, and he's been a reliably elite player at the position for many, many years. He'll be an excellent target for Cam and while his numbers might suffer due to the real life QB situation in Arizona, I have no doubt he'd put up insane numbers were he to have a professional QB throwing him the ball.

 

[JerBear]

Damn, I was hoping people would forget about him in Arizona QB purgatory...

 

[mascho]

Damn, I was hoping people would forget about him in Arizona QB purgatory...

You weren't the only one. Nice pick.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Fitzgerald is an amazing talent. Its sad that the situation in Arizona actually makes me feel bad for a multi millionaire. Such a waste. Great pick here though.

 

[dylanmarsh]

My first "FUUCCCKK" moment with the Fitz pick.  I had convinced myself he was going to fall to me.  Brees and Fitzgerald would have been deadly.

 

[Super Nomario]

Trent Edwards? Really?  I can think of a lot of comps for Sam Bradford but that sure isn't one of them.
 
His stats were horrible in 2011, when the team imploded, and probably overrated in 2010.  But I'm not sure what about his 2012 counting stats or his 17th ranked DVOA, in the context of one of the worst supporting casts in the league, really stinks.
 
In the end, however, I don't think stats alone tell a very good story for any young QB.  Team context is huge, especially for guys who are breaking into the league. What kind of stats do you think Kaepernick would have put up with the 2011 Rams?

The "would he be good if he had a decent supporting cast?" question is unanswerable, for now at least. We just know he's had a lousy supporting cast, and he's been lousy. I have Bradford as 16th in DVOA and DYAR, and also 16th in WPA. Those are his good stats: he was 20th in EPA, 21st in rating, 21st in QBR, 21st in ANY/A, and 28th in Y/A. His career Y/A is worse than Edwards, Campbell, and the same as Mark Sanchez.

 

[Titoschew]

With their second round pick, the Buffalo Bills select WR Julio Jones.
 

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

With their second round pick, the Buffalo Bills select WR Julio Jones.

 
I was thinking between Julio, Muhammad and one other guy at my pick. I felt like D-Line was a little more important but would have gone with Julio otherwise.
 
For all the Fitz love, I think in a redraft the guy who could put up similar numbers but is 6 years younger is the better pick. 

 

[DanoooME]

AJ Green was the other guy I was debating about when I picked Kalil.  And Jones is damn solid at this point.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Long term I think Jones is a better investment. In fact I think even in the medium and short run he is too. The only close call is in the next 1-2 years and even there I think Julio is better.

 

[dylanmarsh]

I'm on my phone so no pic but I wanted to post this before the end of the night.

The Arizona Cardinals take Ray Rice, RB.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

He took a significant step back last year, at 30 years old. He had previously been very well rounded, but is now looking like a pass rush specialist. I also worry about his unique size, and that if he slows at all, which is to be expected on the wrong side of 30, that his production will seriously decrease. I'm not saying it's a bad pick, but those were my concerns when looking at him.

Yeah, totally fair. If he's a little healthier, upside is top 5 OLB/DE in the game. But this could be the beginning of the end. Anecdotally, it seems like edge rushers last longer than guys at other positions. But that's probably just self-serving BS.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

With their second round pick, the Buffalo Bills select WR Julio Jones.

 
Superb. 
 
Fitz wasn't my "fuuuckfuckfuck" pick. This was. Jones is a lot closer to Calvin Johnson than Larry Fitz, and would have him over AJ Green IMO. 

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

I'm on my phone so no pic but I wanted to post this before the end of the night.

The Arizona Cardinals take Ray Rice, RB.

 
Man, what a dilemma. On one hand, him and Brees makes for a potentially a superb offense. Despite his smaller frame (now bulked up to 212, but weighed as light as 195 on a 5'8" height), he missed only 3 games after his rookie year. Absolutely a stud in 2011.
 
However, following the notion that # of carries have more effect on a smaller framed back, 2013 may be a critical year for him. Here are some quick numbers his past three seasons (2010, 2011, 2012):

• Rush Attempts: 307, 291, 257
• Rush Avg/Game: 19.2, 18.2, 16.1
• Total rushes + receptions: 370, 367, 318
• Rec./Game: 63, 76, 61
• Rec. Yds/Game: 34.8, 44.0, 29.9
• Y/Scrm: 1776, 2068, 1621

2012 could be considered a fluke year (relatively speaking of course, especially with the OC situation), or there's a small chance this is the first sign of being on a downward trend. 

 

[SMU_Sox]

I wonder if myt1 doubles down on receivers or takes a te to make up for not having a good qb.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Did somebody pm myt1? I think he has about one hour left.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Did somebody pm myt1? I think he has about one hour left.

 
Shall we make it a rule that at the end of the announcement, confirm that you PM'd the next GM?
 
If we don't see that, then another poster may do the honor as a favor.

 

[Super Nomario]

Shall we make it a rule that at the end of the announcement, confirm that you PM'd the next GM?
 
If we don't see that, then another poster may do the honor as a favor.

I just PM'ed him.

 

[Dgilpin]

Did somebody pm myt1? I think he has about one hour left.

I sent him a PM this morning , but it's a good idea to PM the next person up after you pick

 

[JerBear]

Superb. 
 
Fitz wasn't my "fuuuckfuckfuck" pick. This was. Jones is a lot closer to Calvin Johnson than Larry Fitz, and would have him over AJ Green IMO. 

I would much rather have had Jones to Fitz. I didn't expect Jones to make it to me, I thought Fitz (with his last place DYAR of qualifying WR in 2012) might.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

I sent him a PM this morning , but it's a good idea to PM the next person up after you pick

 
It isn't a good idea. Its the rules.
 
People.PM the person after you make a pick (if people havent been).

 

[dylanmarsh]

Shit.  My bad, guys.  I forgot to PM him and I couldn't do it from my phone.

 

[Scoops Bolling]

And here I was ready to go ahead and pick if he didn't do so quite soon. I guess I'll give him a little more time then.

 

[Dgilpin]

Well times up , Scoops is on the clock

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

When did dgil PM him?

 

[Scoops Bolling]

Just let me know when it's kosher for me to pick, and I will do so.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Inundating him with PMs seems pointless - he hasn't been online since yesterday evening.  It's not like he is ignoring the messages.

 

[RhaegarTharen]

Not to be heartless, but if he hasn't been online since last night, would it even have mattered if he was PM'd right away?  The window would have still expired by now.

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

Inundating him with PMs seems pointless - he hasn't been online since yesterday evening.  It's not like he is ignoring the messages.

PMs do go to your email, and in my case my phone. Though I'm not warranting blasting my inbox if I'm unavailable. 

 

[RhaegarTharen]

PMs do go to your email, and in my case my phone. Though I'm not warranting blasting my inbox if I'm unavailable. 

Good point. My PM's go to my old email still, so I had forgotten that. 

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

Not to be heartless, but if he hasn't been online since last night, would it even have mattered if he was PM'd right away?  The window would have still expired by now.

Yeah we were cruising yesterday and he was only 3 picks away. I'd assume he knew he'd be on the clock sometime last night or early this morning. 
 
Either way I'm sure something came up and he'll be on eventually just not sure if we start bending the rules now if it allows them to be bent later. 

 

[Dgilpin]

I PM'd him at 7 am est, I'd say for Scoops to pick. We already lost a good portion of the day

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Hes gotten PMs today and hasnt been on since last night.

I love Myt, but I vote for scoops to pick.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

It's the second round and Myt's pretty committed so I'm sure something just came up. Lets give him another hour in case he was in court this morning or something. After that we should probably just move forward.

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

It's the second round and Myt's pretty committed so I'm sure something just came up. Lets give him another hour in case he was in court this morning or something. After that we should probably just move forward.

I think this is a good idea. Give him the full 6 hours for today and if we still don't here from him by 2 move on without him. 

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

It's the second round and Myt's pretty committed so I'm sure something just came up. Lets give him another hour in case he was in court this morning or something. After that we should probably just move forward.
I think this is a good idea. Give him the full 6 hours for today and if we still don't here from him by 2 move on without him. 

Dgil PMed him at 7. It has been 6 hours. I think its more then fair for scoop to pick.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

PS- thats the rules, right? I believe we're being sticklers about following the rules we all signed up for, no?

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

Dgil PMed him at 7. It has been 6 hours. I think its more then fair for scoop to pick.

Our morning clock doesn't start until 8AM. Though either way he's passed his allotted time. 

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

PS- thats the rules, right? I believe we're being sticklers about following the rules we all signed up for, no?

Do I have to reopen my Eli-Bradford case?

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

It's fair for him to pick. I'm just suggesting that he wait a tiny bit because I place value on everybody making their picks in order in the first couple rounds. But if scoops wants to pick, it's within his rights.

 

[soxfan121]

No one would want us to follow the rules more than Myt1. 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

That is probably true!

 

[Phragle]

I'm bored, anyone want an assistant GM?

 

[mascho]

I'm bored, anyone want an assistant GM?

Myt1 would love one right about now....

 

[Phragle]

Myt1 would love one right about now....

 
That's up to him, but I'd do it.

 

[Myt1]

Friends, Romans, other people. Was out of the office all morning. Give me a sec and I'll pick.

 

[Phragle]

Ok I've been signed by Scoops Boiling. Myt1 should get some time at least while Scoops and I strategize.

 

[Dgilpin]

Ok I've been signed by Scoops Boiling. Myt1 should get some time at least while Scoops and I strategize.

We have a real pro involved now

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

We have a real pro involved now

 
Psych