Since he's been down longer this time, he'll probably be limited to 30-35 pitches the first time out, as opposed to the 70 he threw in Baltimore. Even if he's not really an "opener" in the Rays style, he probably won't go more than a couple innings.
Rebirth of a Sale, man
- Thread starter reggiecleveland
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Yes, my second argument wasn't worded too well. What I meant to express was my belief that it's almost always better to share the information that you have (if it isn't sensitive or secretive/classified in some way) and if you believe it to be potentially confusing then just add context. Assuming the public will be too naive to handle your best estimate and should therefore be told nothing is presumptuous and condescending. Just make your best estimate and say why it's what you believe - then if things go wrong explain what's forced the change in your estimate. Is that really too hard for people to understand?
Why is this even an issue? Teams say "4-8 weeks" or "6-12 weeks" all the time. I don't see why this situation should be any different. If it's hard to pin down a timeline, just give a wider range.
So when are we going to see Sale again? Last I heard, he was just going to make a couple of September starts but will he be stretched out enough to go deep into October games?
I expect him to be The Opener on the 13th against the Jays for up to 40 pitches, then to be available to do 60 pitches in one of the NYY games, then pitch a bit more against the O's.
I recalled talk of him pitching as an "Opener" for an inning or two on Sunday, but I'm seeing Porcello listed as the starter.
At some point you have to begin to worry about him getting stretched back out in time for the playoffs...I feel like we are close to that time.
Have to think the Red Sox are well aware of that and are proceeding accordingly. If Lose is right and Sale is likely to make his first start on the 13th, that lines him up to make three more starts before the end of the year as well as be on regular rest for Game 1 of the ALDS. If he starts at 35-40 in the first game, then ramps up to 55-60, then 75-80, then 90+ in the last start, he should be all set for the playoffs.
I was counting back with those numbers, and I bet there is a Plan B to throw him against the Yankees twice if things go poorly between now and then.
Similarly I see them not using him against Cleveland or Houston, to avoid exposure.
Similarly I see them not using him against Cleveland or Houston, to avoid exposure.
If you want to limit exposure to Cleveland and Houston, then why not to the MFY's?
I've never really bought into the exposure thing, especially when you're talking about a veteran guy like Sale and a divisional opponent. The Yankees have seen Sale twice this year and five times last year. I don't think Sale avoiding the Yankees will make any difference at all.
I don't think they're holding him back to avoid exposing him to the Astros. It's a big series and they've got their three best healthy starters lined up. Even on a short pitch count, there's no real good reason to use him there. Besides which, he may not be ready yet.
And what would the point be of trying to avoid the Indians? After all those years in the AL Central, they've seen plenty of him. It's not as though he's re-invented himself and he's going to show them something new.
Blue Jays, Mets, Indians, Orioles (or Yankees if every 5 games, not days). Even if he pitches on Friday the 28th vs the Yankees, available on extra rest for game 1 of the ALDS.
Edit: Misses the Astros, Yankees, and maybe Yankees again
Good news, but anybody remember a prominent (or any?) starter being eased back in like that.
Kershaw threw 55 then 68 then 74 then 89 pitches before resuming a normal workload when he returned in June.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=kershcl01&t=p&year=2018
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=kershcl01&t=p&year=2018
I'd guess 2 reasons: 1) Even with low pitch counts, the coming back in 5 days will tell them enough about his health; and 2) that still leaves enough time for him to go full throttle in the playoffs.
With Sale-Price-EdRo looking more and more like our top three starters (knocking wood for health all around), I checked out the vs. RHP/LHP splits of the four other playoff teams:
vs. RHP/LHP
MFY .771 / .793
CLE .774 / .739
OAK .763 / .746
HOU .736 / .814
Seems kinda like we should be rooting to draw Oakland and then (if we get that far) Cleveland ... which of course most of us would be anyway. And if we do catch Houston in the ALCS, we might want to consider Porcello ahead of or instead of EdRo (which Cora might do anyway, even against Oakland or Cleveland).
vs. RHP/LHP
MFY .771 / .793
CLE .774 / .739
OAK .763 / .746
HOU .736 / .814
Seems kinda like we should be rooting to draw Oakland and then (if we get that far) Cleveland ... which of course most of us would be anyway. And if we do catch Houston in the ALCS, we might want to consider Porcello ahead of or instead of EdRo (which Cora might do anyway, even against Oakland or Cleveland).
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It seems like Tanaka v. Fiers in the one game WC. I'll favor the A's in that one. Still a chance for game to be played in Oakland
It's not that uncommon but it usually happens in the minors during rehab assignments.
Pedro Martinez was pretty prominent. He opened for the immortal John Burkett (who logged the Win) in this game: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200306110.shtml
Fingers crossed Sale will be able to pitch fully healthy in the postseason. At this point though I am officially nervous ...
I agree. But you also got me thinking:
Has anyone ever looked at whether or not when pitchers are "off," if some of them are off in consistent predictable ways? Or are they just all over the place?
That could be a really interesting consideration in preparation if that was a thing. Or, like, maybe a pitcher's curve hangs a consistent way when he's off while the fastball is just wild. Stuff like that.
Just wondering ... does anyone think Sale still has a shot at the Cy Young? Fangraphs made a good case for him the other day, but Kluber has been coming on strong (again), and as a dark horse, Blake Snell is 19-5 with a 2.03 ERA.
Jesus, my heart skipped a beat when I saw this bumped again. Can someone edit the thread title to just "Chris Sale"?
Sale still leads the AL in WAR (BR & FG). Snell, Bauer, Cole and Verlander are within 1 WAR of him, depending on the version of WAR.
In those extra 48 IP, Verlander has allowed 57 more hits, 28 more runs, 17 more HR, 2 more BB, and 37 more K.
That's a 5.06 ERA/5.25 RA, 6.9 K/9, 0.4 BB/9, 3.2 HR/9 that Verlander's extra innings have saved his team. It's a fair debate whether that's worth it - but again, theoretically WAR already counted that, and Sale's ahead.
Yeah, this. Please change the name of it is going to serve as a catch-all thread!
Sorry, my bad for bumping it. But his Cy Young candidacy is at least complicated by his DL time.
Seems like good news so far. Any input from Twitter?
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/09/chris_sale_injury_left-handers.html
"Everything seems that he's okay," said manager Alex Cora. "Just regular soreness. I guess Day 1 after the start-- it was a positive."
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/09/chris_sale_injury_left-handers.html
"Everything seems that he's okay," said manager Alex Cora. "Just regular soreness. I guess Day 1 after the start-- it was a positive."
Good Lord that seems like an underwhelming statement. Not super confident there isn't something serious underlying this whole thing.
The glass half full part of me is parsing that comment as basically saying, "It's too early to know for sure 1 day after his truncated start, but so far, no alarming signs."
I'll readily admit that things were found to be a bit more serious after that Baltimore start in August, and they've been underplaying it since.
This Sunday's start will be much more revealing, I think, than the first one. If his mechanics are still fucked up, or if he still can't go more than 25-35 pitches, I will officially start to worry.
Not sure if y'all clicked the link, but I thought the rest of the article was positive enough, pending on how the next start goes, slated for 3 innings.
I posted this in the Price thread when discussion temporarily focused on Chris Sale:
Come Saturday morning Chris Sale will no longer be leading the American League in ERA. His name will be gone from the stats leaders completely, not because he will have given up a bushel basket of runs Friday night or because someone undercut him (though Snell might eventually), but because his innings total will have dropped below the Red Sox games played. And it is unlikely to return for the rest of the season, with Cora saying he'll only pitch another 10-12 innings vs. 14 more games to be played by that time. Maybe, thanks to the hurricane, we'll get 3 rainouts that we can't make up. I don't think it'll matter to him if he and team win the World Series, but it sure would be nice to be rewarded for such a dominant season with a Cy Young Award and some writers will make a big deal of a starter not even qualifying for the ERA title and down ballot him for Cy Young.
Come Saturday morning Chris Sale will no longer be leading the American League in ERA. His name will be gone from the stats leaders completely, not because he will have given up a bushel basket of runs Friday night or because someone undercut him (though Snell might eventually), but because his innings total will have dropped below the Red Sox games played. And it is unlikely to return for the rest of the season, with Cora saying he'll only pitch another 10-12 innings vs. 14 more games to be played by that time. Maybe, thanks to the hurricane, we'll get 3 rainouts that we can't make up. I don't think it'll matter to him if he and team win the World Series, but it sure would be nice to be rewarded for such a dominant season with a Cy Young Award and some writers will make a big deal of a starter not even qualifying for the ERA title and down ballot him for Cy Young.
Agreed… I think it's Snell's award to lose at this point. Sale just isn't going to have the innings. Kluber's performance has been all over the place since he had a knee issue in late June and early July, working out to 4.00 ERA over his last 14 starts. As a Tribe fan I'm inching closer towards panic mode and suspect we'll hear sometime in November that he's getting his knee cleaned out. Trevor Bauer had the better argument until he also got injured. Snell has taken advantage of the drop off in the competition more so than Justin Verlander.
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Yeah unless he really shits the bed to end the year it is going to be Snell, I think.
I dunno. Snell is closest to Sale in the rate stats (but still clearly inferior in just about every one) but Sale will finish a lot closer to Snell in IP than Snell will be to Verlander and Kluber. After pitching last night Snell has gone 17 more innings than Sale and it will probably settle out at 21 or so at season's end. That's a big difference from the IP disparity Sale suffers from comparing to the league leaders.
Unless the voters make it binary - i.e. 'Did you qualify for the ERA title with 162 IP?' and Sale just misses that I don't see the argument that Snell's extra 3 or 4 starts should make up for him being inferior in just about every other way (except wins) and the suspicion that comes with a weirdly low BABIP given his batted ball stats.
Look at his LD/GB/FB and soft/med/hard percentages next to Porcello's. They're virtually identical and yet BABIP is .242 vs Porcello's .287. Sale's is .278 despite much higher soft% and lower hard%. I think Snell's ERA is artificially low and that's borne out by his fWAR being a relatively pedestrian 3.9
Unless the voters make it binary - i.e. 'Did you qualify for the ERA title with 162 IP?' and Sale just misses that I don't see the argument that Snell's extra 3 or 4 starts should make up for him being inferior in just about every other way (except wins) and the suspicion that comes with a weirdly low BABIP given his batted ball stats.
Look at his LD/GB/FB and soft/med/hard percentages next to Porcello's. They're virtually identical and yet BABIP is .242 vs Porcello's .287. Sale's is .278 despite much higher soft% and lower hard%. I think Snell's ERA is artificially low and that's borne out by his fWAR being a relatively pedestrian 3.9
It stinks and it sucks, but one glaring thing that Cy voters care about more than all of that:
1. Wins.
And if there's something else that isn't wins they'll care about, it's IP and total stats, not rate stats.
Sale's injury robbed him of the award. Snell hitting 20 wins without completely shitting the bed will essentially seal the deal.
It’s a different situation, but I’ll push back on wins being determinative. Most people seem to expect DeGrom to win the NL Cy, and there was Felix a few years back.
I do agree the IP will be a tough hurdle.
Yeah, I think it's the innings pitched that will cost Sale. No better example than Kershaw a couple years ago...12-4, 1.69 ERA, 0.725 WHIP, 237 ERA+, 15.64 K/BB, but only 149 IP in 21 starts.
Compare that to Sale's current line, 12-4, 1.96 ERA, 0.850 WHIP, 222 ERA+, 13.50 K/9, 147 innings in 24 starts.