JBJ is a Boras guy. It's no secret Heyman will say anything Boras wants him to to maximize a player's value.Heyman says the Sox are still in on him, so there are probably still some moving parts.
JBJ is a Boras guy. It's no secret Heyman will say anything Boras wants him to to maximize a player's value.Heyman says the Sox are still in on him, so there are probably still some moving parts.
We're Red Sox fans. We're used to it. Still better than Barnes.This guy will give you anxiety every time he goes out there.
MLB TradeRumors projected Ozuna to get 4/72, and Bradley to get 2/16.Sox were linked to Marcel Ozuna too, maybe he's easier to fit in under the cap than JBJ? Or at least a smaller cap hit if they nudge over?
Possibly a little too respectable. They strike me as being in no-man’s land a little bit, like an NBA 9-seed - not atrocious, but unlikely to challenge for a title.So the Sox have recently added/signed
SP Martin Perez - decent back-end of the rotation guy
SP Garrett Richards - decent back-end of the rotation guy with some upside
IF Kiké Hernandez - modest player but who can play multiple positions
RP Adam Ottavino - solid reliever with upside
That's not terrible. None are earth-shattering, but they're building perhaps a respectable baseball team.
That plan did work in 2013, to be fair..Possibly a little too respectable. They strike me as being in no-man’s land a little bit, like an NBA 9-seed - not atrocious, but unlikely to challenge for a title.
And maybe that’s okay. I’m not really advocating for a full tank job (I generally think more teams should be Going For It). I guess then that the plan is try to hope to get into contention with a hot start and then, if that doesn’t work, start shipping off everything that isn’t nailed down, including Xander, E-Rod, and Eovaldi? I guess that’s an ok plan. I don’t love it, but I get it, which kind of describes the entire Bloom era to me.
Huh, I guess I haven't followed the Ozuna market. ThanksMLB TradeRumors projected Ozuna to get 4/72, and Bradley to get 2/16.
Neither would fit under the cap as things currently stand. If they prefer JBJ to Beni, they could probably trade Beni for a middling prospect or low cost reliever and free up enough to fit JBJ under the cap (probably just barely).
Did you see the Yankee fan's post I responded to? I know that every time my NYY-fan spouse watched Ottavino pitch he seemed to be in agony.I don't really get this thinking, at least with regard to Ottavino specifically. If he's pitching in high-leverage innings, that means at minimum he is better than the other options for the Sox. And if he's really bad, he won't be pitching in high-leverage innings. So there isn't really a scenario where having Ottavino on the team will make them significantly less enjoyable than they would have been otherwise, regardless of how good or bad he is.
Relievers with control problems will do that to you.Did you see the Yankee fan's post I responded to? I know that every time my NYY-fan spouse watched Ottavino pitch he seemed to be in agony.
He looks good from afar.I've liked Ottavino from afar for a while. I wanted the Sox to go after him leading into 2019.
I mean, they kinda did.No JBJ, no Marcus Semien... looks like potentially pretty big holes at 2B and CF (beyond the whole bullpen and rotation thing).
I have no problem with a reset year, but I think it's time to call it what it likely is.
If Fangraphs has him as equal to Jacob Wallace, I think that's a great add. Wallace was a filthy closer for UConn in the college playoffs. Throws 94-97 with a really good slider. I thought he was a huge steal in the Pillar trade.Fangraphs has slotted him at #25, just above Jacob Wallace who we got for Pillar and five spots above Whitlock. They have him as the 6th best arm in the system behind Mata, Houck, Bazardo, Bello and Ward.
My guess is that Brice is safe. Before today he's the best weapon in the pen we have against hitters from the right side.Something to consider regarding the luxury tax and room beneath the cap...they still haven't added Perez, Hernandez, or Richards to the roster and they're at 40 with Ottavino. There are some dominoes that have to fall just to make official the guys they've already signed. I think they're just about out of guys they can waive off the roster without losing them. Brice is out of options so he's a likely candidate, but after that, it's probably Pedroia and/or a trade or two. They could gain some salary wiggle room that way (not from Pedroia, but if they trade someone else).
My guess is Springs, Pedroia and Marcus Wilson will be the three taken off the 40 man. Bloom will hope Springs and Wilson clear waivers and come back.My guess is that Brice is safe. Before today he's the best weapon in the pen we have against hitters from the right side.
League average wOBA for RHH is .319 over 2019-20.
Ottavino: .250 expected wOBA (‘19-20)
Brice: .268
Andriese: .279
Brasier: .285
Hernandez: .302
Taylor: .305
Valdez: .306
Barnes: .308
---
Brewer: .379
Whitlock ---
My guess is that Chavis is going away and there’ll be some resolution with Pedroia.
I think they have to keep Wilson on the 40 man, at least for now. He's the only OF on the 40 man in the minors. Obviously, another move could always be made down the road and he could even clear waivers, but its not ideal.My guess is Springs, Pedroia and Marcus Wilson will be the three taken off the 40 man. Bloom will hope Springs and Wilson clear waivers and come back.
Jeisson Rosario was added to the 40-man roster earlier this winter and Michael Chavis is another optionable player with outfield experience. Jarren Duran and Cesar Puello also offer potential outfield depth, although both would have to be added to the 40-man roster.I think they have to keep Wilson on the 40 man, at least for now. He's the only OF on the 40 man in the minors. Obviously, another move could always be made down the road and he could even clear waivers, but its not ideal.
I would think Walden and Wilson would be DFA candidates too, perhaps before Brice.Something to consider regarding the luxury tax and room beneath the cap...they still haven't added Perez, Hernandez, or Richards to the roster and they're at 40 with Ottavino. There are some dominoes that have to fall just to make official the guys they've already signed. I think they're just about out of guys they can waive off the roster without losing them. Brice is out of options so he's a likely candidate, but after that, it's probably Pedroia and/or a trade or two. They could gain some salary wiggle room that way (not from Pedroia, but if they trade someone else).
To be clear, I listed Brice as a likely DFA candidate because he's a 30-year-old fringe reliever who has no minor league options remaining. There are certainly others who are viable DFA candidates but do offer the value of roster flexibility, which may be more important given the make up of the pitching staff at present.I would think Walden and Wilson would be DFA candidates too, perhaps before Brice.
I think it's cool too, but only because I think we clearly "won" this trade with the MFY.That’s really cool.
According to B-Ref, this was Babe Dahlgren, best known as the player who played first base the day that Lou Gehrig's streak ended.
There was a spring training trade in 1986...Easler for Baylor. I can see differentiating that from, say, the Stanley trade or the Drew trade.What does he mean by "winter" trade though? That seems to be a curious distinction. He didn't say offseason on purpose, so I am guessing other trades happened during Spring Training? Or in the fall?
Either way I read that there were only 6 trades between the two teams since the divisional era started in 1969! Basically one per decade.
That's probably it. A midseason trade is way different because often when those trades were made the outcome had already been decided to a certain extent.There was a spring training trade in 1986...Easler for Baylor. I can see differentiating that from, say, the Stanley trade or the Drew trade.
It was spring training as well, March 22nd to be exact. I looked it up after reading this thread because that winter trade fact was so surprising to me. What time of year was it when a drunk Tom Yawkey suggested trading Ted for Joe D (and had the deal fall apart because he asked for Yogi too)?That's probably it. A midseason trade is way different because often when those trades were made the outcome had already been decided to a certain extent.
That 86 DH swap was the trade of that decade between the two teams. Was the Sparky Lyle-Danny Cater trade during the season too? Or also spring?
Baylor had a much better postseason in ‘86 than Easler1985
Baylor (NYY): 23 hr, 91 rbi, .231/.330/.430/.760, 109 ops+
Easler (Bos): 16 hr, 74 rbi, .262/.325/.412/.737, 98 ops+
1986
Baylor (Bos): 31 hr, 94 rbi, .238/.344/.439/.783, 112 ops+
Easler (NYY): 14 hr, 78 rbi, .302/.362/.449/.811, 121 ops+
Both teams got improvement. Boston got 14 ops+ points of improvement, and NY got 12 ops+ points of improvement, from 1985 to 1986. Baylor stayed relatively the same, while Easler improved a lot switching to Yankee Stadium.
Fascinating trade actually. It makes me wonder what would have happened had those Williams-for-DiMaggio trade rumors actually came to fruition.
EDIT: To the last question, yes it's not perfect because they'd be facing different pitching staffs, but here's Ted and Joe's career splits in Fenway and Yankee Stadium:
Williams
- Fenway: .361/.496/.652/1.148
- Yankee: .309/.484/.543/1.027
DiMaggio
- Fenway: .334/.410/.605/1.015
- Yankee: .315/.391/.547/.938
DiMaggio likely would have seen a massive improvement in his offense playing for Boston, while Williams actually likely would have seen his numbers go down playing for the Yankees. Still, Williams' numbers would have been better than DiMaggio's (he was, after all, a much better hitter). So the Yankees would have gotten a worse version of Ted, but even that version of Ted would have been an improvement offensively over DiMaggio. For Boston, they'd have gotten a much better offensive version of DiMaggio than the Yankees had, but it still would have been a downgrade offensively from Ted. BUT...maybe it would have been close enough that his otherworldly defense would have made up for it?
Oh come on. When Ted played in yankee stadium he was, for most of his career batting against the best or near best pitching staff in the league. When he played in Fenway, that was against the yankees, too, but also the St. Louis Browns, the 1940's White Sox etc. Williams would have been playing in yankee stadium against every pitching staff but the yankees'.1985
Baylor (NYY): 23 hr, 91 rbi, .231/.330/.430/.760, 109 ops+
Easler (Bos): 16 hr, 74 rbi, .262/.325/.412/.737, 98 ops+
1986
Baylor (Bos): 31 hr, 94 rbi, .238/.344/.439/.783, 112 ops+
Easler (NYY): 14 hr, 78 rbi, .302/.362/.449/.811, 121 ops+
Both teams got improvement. Boston got 14 ops+ points of improvement, and NY got 12 ops+ points of improvement, from 1985 to 1986. Baylor stayed relatively the same, while Easler improved a lot switching to Yankee Stadium.
Fascinating trade actually. It makes me wonder what would have happened had those Williams-for-DiMaggio trade rumors actually came to fruition.
EDIT: To the last question, yes it's not perfect because they'd be facing different pitching staffs, but here's Ted and Joe's career splits in Fenway and Yankee Stadium:
Williams
- Fenway: .361/.496/.652/1.148
- Yankee: .309/.484/.543/1.027
DiMaggio
- Fenway: .334/.410/.605/1.015
- Yankee: .315/.391/.547/.938
DiMaggio likely would have seen a massive improvement in his offense playing for Boston, while Williams actually likely would have seen his numbers go down playing for the Yankees. Still, Williams' numbers would have been better than DiMaggio's (he was, after all, a much better hitter). So the Yankees would have gotten a worse version of Ted, but even that version of Ted would have been an improvement offensively over DiMaggio. For Boston, they'd have gotten a much better offensive version of DiMaggio than the Yankees had, but it still would have been a downgrade offensively from Ted. BUT...maybe it would have been close enough that his otherworldly defense would have made up for it?
Okay, you have a point in that the difference between the two staffs is not as large as I would have guessed.Obviously in either case Ted would be hitting against everyone else in the AL, except NY (playing for Bos) or Bos (playing for NY). So all you need to do is compare NY's pitching to Boston's. Now using ERA+ as the benchmark, which takes ballparks into account, here were the two teams' ERA+ numbers each year of Ted's career:
1939 - NY 139, Bos 104
1940 - NY 104, Bos 92
1941 - NY 112, Bos 99
1942 - NY 119, Bos 109
...
1946 - NY 110, Bos 108
1947 - NY 104, Bos 102 - This is the year the trade was proposed (according to the story)
1948 - NY 109, Bos 104
1949 - NY 108, Bos 109
1950 - NY 104, Bos 102
1951 - NY 108, Bos 108
1952 - NY 106, Bos 104
1953 - NY 115, Bos 116
1954 - NY 107, Bos 103
1955 - NY 117, Bos 117
1956 - NY 107, Bos 111
1957 - NY 120, Bos 103
1958 - NY 111, Bos 102
1959 - NY 101, Bos 97
1960 - NY 103, Bos 88
So in most of those years, NY's pitching was a LITTLE better than Boston's. Not much. A little. In some of those years, Boston's pitching was actually better than New York's. And in just a few years, New York's pitching was much better than Boston's. So your point is basically true, that it would have helped Ted to face Boston's pitching instead of NY's, but in reality, the difference over that span of time wasn't that big.
"Hahahaha, Cashman said you couldn't do it!"Here's hoping German carries a huge "lesser prospect" chip on his shoulder that propels him to greatness in Boston.
I can't help but fantasize about this Sox squad in '21 surprising everyone, similar to '13 and with Ottavino striking out Judge to win the ALCS... while German makes a great leap forward and turns into a top ten SP prospect more highly regarded than any of the Yanks guys."Hahahaha, Cashman said you couldn't do it!"
I appreciate Cashman's candor here. They needed a salary dump for whatever reason and the Sox came in with the best bid, probably by a lot.
When looking at the ledger of any trade, giving something/anything away to your biggest rival is a serious consideration.
I find Cashman in his press conferences to be really forthcoming and transparent. I think he meant what he said.Do folks really believe Cashman meant this!?!?!?!?
Yes, he is pretty honest in these situations (when the deal has already happened). I was expecting NY was going to have to bundle someone like Yoendrys Gomez and German is not as well regarded as him.Do folks really believe Cashman meant this!?!?!?!?
I believe that he took the better deal with us only because the Sox were willing to accept the lesser prospect... The rest is GM speak.Do folks really believe Cashman meant this!?!?!?!?
Yup, I'm there too. It was hard literally not caring about baseball at all last season. I'm ready to be invested for 162 this year.I can't help but fantasize about this Sox squad in '21 surprising everyone, similar to '13 and with Ottavino striking out Judge to win the ALCS... while German makes a great leap forward and turns into a top ten SP prospect more highly regarded than any of the Yanks guys.
A guy can dream!!!!
Baylor had a much better postseason in ‘86 than Easler
As for the Ted-Joe trade, you’ve convinced me. But since Joe is older, could you throw in that young catcher to even things up?
Back to the trade itself, anyone have thoughts about German’s future? SP or more likely RP?