Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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An established big-league position player would never sign an 8/50 deal these days. It’s certainly fair to say the Sox should only sign long-term deals with proven major leaguers, but that means you’ll pretty much never do a deal like this one.
It’s a balanced deal, which means there’s risk for the club. Personally, I like the deal. I feel even better about it knowing that Breslow wasn’t involved in any aspect of Rafaela’s acquisition or development up to now; this isn’t someone doubling down on a decision they made previously.
Watching him play and thinking locking him up through age 30 for only $50m isn't exciting is just weird.
You say that as if there isn't any middle ground to be had there between paying the guy now and paying a guy latter. Like say....even waiting 3 more months to put an 8 year ring on it and only after seeing a more convincing sample of MLB success latter. On a guy who's better case scenario projection ceiling probably isn't all that sky high there either.
Again, in the big picture that is my biggest problem with this. To me this isn't good and flexible minded GM'ing. This is more a small market minded cuteness gamble, and which seems to be sweating the min/max financial margins more then I'd expect to see out of high revenue baseball team.
The same deal presumably wouldn’t be available after half a season of big-league success.
There are two arguments against this signing: (1) Rafaela isn’t good enough (or is too risky) to justify the risk, or (2) any player without demonstrated success is too risky to justify this kind of deal. I deliberately quoted posts that I thought made argument (2). If the FO did that, they’d never get a bargain like this deal will be if Rafaela is even respectable, never mind if he hits his ceiling. Instead, you’d be looking at a richer deal that reflects that half season of success, and carries about the same risk for the club as this one. Imo, the people who are uneasy about this deal would be uneasy about that one too, except for the folks whose objections are specific to Rafaela (because the half season of success would presumably quell those specific concerns).
Fundamentally, the FO needs to take risks, as all organizations must. Whether this deal is a good risk depends, I think, on what you think about Rafaela specifically.
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You keep circling back to some implied indication within that we absolutely had to lock Rafaela in here at the cheapest possible price tag now..or else?. Where to me that should be the less prioritized piece of the equation there for the Boston Red Sox then it seems to be. I'd like to believe the penny pinching concerns hasn't sunk to that low of a point where we couldn't just enjoy the luxury of being perfectly content to pay more out latter in exchange for getting that extra assurance we don't have now that we are indeed making the right decision on an 8 year marriage gamble.
Like do you really think Rafaela is potentially making an MVP level run on offense this year with those K rates? Or how much more do you believe that contract pricetag would go up 3 months from now? Or even event we had revisted these contract extension talks next offseason after a full .300obp/.400slg 2024 season?
No one expects or needs him to have an MVP level season. If he ends up an average major league hitter, with an OPs+ of 100, plus that defense we expect, this will be a steal.
And if he's hitting a .600ops clip come July and we are all already groaning every time he comes to the plate it looks awful imo.
That isn't what I asked though. I was curious to hear just how much more money people think we would have been looking at having to pay out had we waited. Because it obviously seems to be a meaningful amount to them to make any real sense of doing this now imo.
Bello got $9.2M AAV despite the dramatically higher risk of career-altering injury for pitchers relative to position players, for a deal that bought out only one season of free agency (with a $21M option for a second year). Gotta think Rafaela would want more than that once he established himself as a big leaguer, the way Bello did last year. So to answer your question, I think the price to lock up Rafaela through his first two years of free agency would roughly double if we waited until he put up half a season of solid numbers. Obviously a different story if he struggles this year.
It’s perfectly valid to prefer 8/100 for a young player who has established himself to 8/50 for a young player who hasn’t. It’s wishful thinking to believe you could wait for that assurance and get the same deal, or even something close to it.
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I agree with mauf. Half a season of Major League average or better production will come close to doubling that cost. I think this is an excellent roll of the dice for the Sox. And if he’s hitting at an .600 OPS at the All Star break vut with the defense we expect I will suggest that he’s a rookie and his hitting will likely improve.
With your plan, Mike, of waiting, the team will never be able to keep more than one or two quality home grown players as they will cost to much to keep them at the higher salaries they will be able to command. See: Betts, Mookie.
With your plan, Mike, of waiting, the team will never be able to keep more than one or two quality home grown players as they will cost to much to keep them at the higher salaries they will be able to command. See: Betts, Mookie.
Doesn’t it give them a better indication of how ready for the majors he is, for now at least? How long does it take for BB / K rates to stabilize and be reliable predictors of what to expect? Hes at 5/29 BB/K % at this point (compared to 4/31 in his small sample last year).
(FWIW, the deal seems reasonable to me. Some risk on both sides).
Ok so I’m on record as being a little skeptical because they haven’t seen him hit successfully against MLB pitching yet but this deal is really good and potentially mind-bogglingly good.
Happy for Rafaela and for the Sox and for the fans who get to see this incredible athlete for years to come.
Yeah, that 50 mil including a 4M buyout of a 16M salary in year 9 swings it. Consider me converted.
Right now his RC+ 72 in all of his Major league at bats. That is not good enough. Small Sample size and all of that - but his strike judgment is off the charts terrible. An OPS of .750+ would be good enough. It is far from clear at this point if he can get even close to that.
I don't like the extension - there is just too little evidence he will be anything but a significant minus offensively.
Not clear to me what the hurry was - you could have waited until the summer and probably made close to the same deal.
A minority opinion here I know.
I honestly don't know if gives them additional reliable information. Or maybe it's more accurate to say, "if it gives them enough information to change their minds" since we kind of know what they think now.
(And I agree that it seems like a solid deal for both sides.)
I guess I don’t get why people think that major league teams highly value defense - as posts like this imply. I mean, we all know defense is valuable in winning games but, as of yet, it doesn’t seem like teams back that notion through giving defense-only players big contracts.
So yeah, the idea that Rafaela’s defense is so spectacular that he’d earn the contract even if he never hits, ignores the fact that there are free agents available every offseason who fit that profile and get so ignored by potential suitors that they have to accept inexpensive, short-term deals (if they close to average with the bat) or minor league contracts (if they if they are significantly below average).
So If people are so impressed by Rafaela’s defense that they think this is an amazing deal, why weren’t those same people clamoring for the Sox to sign Kevin Kiermaier, Michael Taylor (good examples of the first type) or Yu Chang (a good example of the second type) in the offseason? Both Keirmaier and Taylor are still spectacular in CF (13 OAA and 9 OAA) and hit about what we hope Rafaela might reach someday (.714 OPS and .720 OPS) but they faced little interest in free agency. Keirmaier eventually signed for a 1-year 10.5 million deal. Taylor only got $4 million. Yu Chang (+15 OAA in 530 career chances but only a .624 career OPS), who is potentially Rafaela’s downside potential (though at a different position), garnered zero interest before signing a minor league deal with TB.
Defense may be valuable but, despite that, good defense -or even elite defense - is still cheap to acquire.
I’m also surprised that no one has brought up how much a deal like this shifts the risk of serious injury from the player to the team. 8 years is a long time, and prior to this signing the Sox would have been protected contractually if/when Rafaela suffered a a career altering injury. Now they are stuck with him -and this contract- regardless.
Again, I don’t hate this deal but I also don’t particularly like it, and definitely see it as a gamble that could easily fail to pay out.
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Harrison Bader is a 29 year old CF, spectacular defensively and with a shockingly bad .503 OPS last year against RHP. He signed for 1/10.5 this winter.
The flip side of this is of course that Bader can actually hit left handed pitching pretty well; hes just useless against RHP, which is also only a recent issue. Maybe the Mets saw something that they though they could fix there.
In any event, If Rafaela matches Bader's career, he'll be worth the deal. If he hits like Bader has against righties recently, they'll have flushed $50M. Coming from someone who generally likes the bet and feels that its a reasonable deal for both sides, that risk is not zero or even that low, his chase rates are horrible. Its going to be close to impossible for him to be a MLB player of any quality with a 30% K rate.
Are you supporting my point or disagreeing with it? Harrison Bader has a career .702 OPS and is 29 years old. I think a lot of people would see that level of offensive production as a good result for Rafaela, as long as he maintains his current, elite defense. But apparently, even if he does hit that well, the free agent market would only value him at 10.5 million on a one-year deal. Meanwhile, if he fails to meet that standard and instead ends up the CF version of Yu Chang, he would have (if the Sox hadn't signed him to an 8-year deal) spent the years paid for in this contract bouncing around between the minors and multiple major league teams making peanuts. My point is that it's not true that elite defense makes someone viable in the majors "even if they can't hit". Heck, its not even true that if they can hit at a .700 OPS level that they will be particularly valued by the market.
Here's Posnanski (kind of) on the deal.
The Rafaela deal really isn't what the Braves have been doing. They've been finding great players, seeing that they're great, and signing them. There isn't a lot of wishing and hoping with the deals they've given out.Joe Posnanski said:
That's a really interesting comp, considering player age and position.
I think the main difference is Harris won the ROY in 2021 with a 133 OPS+. Interestingly though, he didn't have much of a MiL track record before that, although what he had was good: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harrimi04.shtml
Rafaela has the more established MiL track record, with the main flaw being his discipline which manifests in at best marginal BB/K numbers. He apparently had vast improvement in AAA, then again in ST this year, but it hasn't shown up in his 2023 or 2024 ML numbers. Very small sample size though.
Sox are clearly betting on their internal analysis of CR's improvement.
PS - Harris signed in August 2021, presumably after negotiation, so it's interesting to look at his monthly splits. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=harrimi04&year=2022&t=b
Seems a little bit more roll-the-dice than a post-season signing would, but still a good sample size.
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Just giving a data point that the market thinks there is a lot of value (even if it's a one year deal) in a defense-only CF in the current market.
I guess we disagree on $10.5 million being a lot of value, or that Bader is "defense only". Yu Chang is defense only. Harrison Bader is a below average hitter with elite defense. I actually think the hope with Rafaela is that he ends up that type of player - a Bader-like, low-700 OPS CF- and the fear is that he ends up more of a Yu Chang-like, low .600 OPS player. If the latter scenario is what happens, this deal is a massive overpay.
This seems more of an argument against the Rafaela deal than one in favor of it. It's a 1-year contract for Bader, and he did put up big numbers vs. LHP. The superlative fielder JBJ is playing in the Atlantic League right now.
The team is committing to fully-guaranteed money here. I am trying, but it is hard to believe the potential upside payoff is in any reasonable balance with the potential downside risk. Breslow has made his bet on the player. I hope it works out.
Bader only had a .622 OPS in 2023 and .650 in 2022 though and still managed a $10.5M salary. If you think that Rafaela can manage that level of performance then his 2030 salary is market value and 2031 is a $2.5M overpay, assuming no inflation which I don't think is a good assumption.
In general I think its a great strategy to extend young players early in the hopes of getting surplus value on their contracts long term. Ideally you spread around the risk and any player that you end up overpaying is more than covered by underpaying other players.
I would really, really be surprised if Rafaela ended up being a .600 OPS guy in the short-term or the long-term. It's by no means impossible, but I would be surprised.
He's had a rough introduction to the big leagues, but a lot of guys do, and I think the guy who struck out only 20% of the time across AA-AAA and who crushed homers will emerge. He's probably always going to chase pitches, but he's had a lot of success as a hitter swinging early and often, and I don't blame him for seeing if he can make that approach work up here.
He's had a rough introduction to the big leagues, but a lot of guys do, and I think the guy who struck out only 20% of the time across AA-AAA and who crushed homers will emerge. He's probably always going to chase pitches, but he's had a lot of success as a hitter swinging early and often, and I don't blame him for seeing if he can make that approach work up here.
That money isn't being paid to him based on what he's doing by July. If fans react that way, that's on them and not an indictment of the move at all. Because he'll still be 23. He can easily OPS .650 all year and the 8 YEAR DEAL still wouldn't be a bad deal.
4 key points to consider in using Bader as a comp:
1) Bader's had a track record of hitting better than that earlier in his career, when he was an above average bat as often as not. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baderha01.shtml
2) He was offered $10.5 M by the Mets.
3) The Mets.
4) The Mets.
This is also a guy who has three seasons of putting up an OPS north of .750 - with one of those being as recent as 2021. Injuries derailed him in 2022 and you’d have to think the Mets are hoping that he’s got the upside of returning to his prior offensive levels as long as he maintains his health. This is important because it seems clear that if he hadn’t had had that earlier period of success there seems little chance he could have come close to getting the deal he landed.
So if Rafaela wanted to reach a similar level of contract in his eventual free agency (had he not signed this contract) he would had to have had a similar period of success with the bat. After all, if the entirety of Bader’s career looked like his last two seasons he probably wouldn’t have been offered anything better than a minor league deal (if he was still in professional baseball). Even with his past track record, I wouldn’t be that happy with that contract as a Mets fan. Michael Taylor is every bit the defensive player Bader is and was much better with the bat last year- and he only cost the Pirates $4 million.
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So you quoted my "If he ends up an average major league hitter, with an OPs+ of 100 " and then followed it up with your interpretation (?) "even if he never hits". I have a hard time understanding this leap.
Good point. Yeah, I guess my post was more reacting to earlier posters but landed on you for some reason. I would say that you also said this contract would be a "steal" if he ends up with an OPS + of 100, and I don't agree with that. Kevin Keirmaier, for example, is exactly the player you describe (career OPS+ of 98) and he was only paid $48 million for his first 10 seasons with the Rays. While that doesn't account for inflation, and I do think that if Rafaela becomes the Curacaoan Keirmaier this is actually a good deal, I just wouldn't call it a steal if he only amounts to that. It's for that reason that I'm concerned about this deal. I see the whole Curacaoan Keirmaier thing as a one of the more positive outcomes for this contract, and it's still not that much of a bargain. Meanwhile the downside risk of him becoming a true "defense only" player (ala Yu Chang) would mean he's the type of guy who might have bounced around the league looking for minor league deals and spring training invites (costing virtually nothing in salary). Yu Chang, for example, has been paid only $2.7 million in his 5 year career, though that point is a bit moot since he's been cut multiple times during that period.
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Well, that's the thing, though. We haven't seen a lot of swings yet*. Guys can take time to develop (Pedroia, Casas), while others never get it (Middlebrooks, Dalbec). It's way too early to make a judgment on how good of a hitter he's going to be. Personally, I like the way he turns on inside pitches and hammers them down the LF line. He also knows how to drive pitches to the opposite field.
*but yeah, his reputation for expanding the zone precedes him. As Soxprospects notes: "Does not walk much and expands the strike zone often."
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It's not going to prevent them from doing other stuff or moving him to 4th OF / super-utility guy if they get better options, but I don't think I would have done this deal for someone with that BB/K ratio in the minors and majors. Maybe I'm old school and they have data that says he can improve there but everything I know about prospects says that really limits his ceiling.
… this deal also provides cost certainty, say for a small market team, if they wind up trading him to make room for Anthony/ Bleis or someone else in a few years.
Only if he hits at a reasonable level. If he puts up a low .600 OPS during that stretch, this contract would have the opposite effect - no small market team would be interested in him at that point.
That depends - the fact that he also has a guaranteed contract means the Sox can subsidize it; although that means they’d have to spend at least it’s permissible in a way you can’t n a 1 year arb deal. If he doesn’t hit (and I’m fairly skeptical) then it definitely gets harder to move him.
I keep hearing Rafaela is defense only, but he is also a 6 tool baserunner which isn't nothing. JBJ was a smart baserunner who got the most of his average speed, but Rafaela adds a lot more value in that aspect which is also baked into his high floor.
Granted he'll need to get on base first.
Granted he'll need to get on base first.
Sorry if already linked, but extremely relevant to this debate:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-extend-defensive-phenom-ceddanne-rafaela/
The projections, commentary and conclusion are all interesting.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-extend-defensive-phenom-ceddanne-rafaela/
The projections, commentary and conclusion are all interesting.
it is seven years later and $2 million more. That strikes me as a very good deal if he can match Keirmaier. Maybe even a steal. Inflation of salaries suggests it should be much higher than that.