Click on his name on the page and it will pull up this page, which gives you a breakdown. Of course it's totally useless at this point of the season because of the number of games they've played.
This is semantics, and I guess the difference between “steal” and “good deal” ( which I’ve previously admitted that a Keirmaier level outcome would amount to) is in the eye of the beholder, but personally I wouldn’t use the word steal to describe something as mundane as “beating inflation”. I mean, jeez, they are only picking up two extra years here, and in this future hypothetical we’re talking about getting the Kevin Kormaier of the future for the bargain rate of $13 million in what would have been a free agent year. That’s probably a good deal, but I’m not sure if I’d say “steal”.
If you haven't done so already, I highly recommend reading up on how both FG and B-Ref calculate their versions of WAR for offense and defense.
right. Well time has shown that his projections are pretty dang good on average, but the average means very little for an individual player. Still, it does give one a baseline for expectations.
How so? The only question last night was who had a better chance to get on base in that particular moment. New deal or not, he's a rookie who has the tendency to get himself out, and the Sox desperately needed a baserunner there. I'm glad they have a realistic view of where he is right now and did what they could.
Be careful…I suggested this a few days ago and someone called it “one of the craziest things ever posted on SOSH.”
And I'm saying that it's not ominous in the least. They know he's still developing and currently struggling, and they are going to proceed as such. It's smart and prudent for them to do so. And as for last night, they were down 2 and needed a baserunner. They took the best of two shitty options. I just don't read any more into it than that.
This is pretty much where I was landing at with my earlier stated concern. At least while admittedly not being as obsessively dialed in to the current outside market rates as I used to be before recently finding a renewed everyday interest in the game again (which is still playing catchup).
He has a massive problem with strike zone judgment. I have to believe that is easier to fix in AAA - but what do I know.
Yep. Regardless of the contract situation, CR's offense was and is and will be a work in progress. We ought to expect it to be treated as such.
I think this would be an interesting topic of conversation. Do we have any examples of free-swingers learning/improving discipline at CR's current age? In the majors or minors?
With the exception of Tovar (and the jury is still out on his bat), the difference between those players and Rafaela is that they all have at least average power. Rafaela’s max exit velocity at this point in his career is poor (ranked 4th lowest of 197 qualified hitters this year). He’ll get stronger as he ages but I believe the current combination of poor plate discipline and little power will lead to some near-term struggles.
I couldn't dig up any evidence of guys improving -- in fact I found that a lot of guys at the bottom of the BB% leaderboard walked about 8 or 9% in the high minors and saw their numbers fall to 4-5% in the majors (Brandon Drury, Javier Baez, Michael Harris). But I found some guys who've made major league careers with minor league profiles like his.
He had a plenty of pop in the minors. 14 home runs in like 200 plate appearances at AAA, 22 altogether last year, and 20 the year before that, too.
Yes, that poster was me. And I believe the entire statement that I had a hard time with was "When Refsnyder is healthy, Rafaela should be sent to Worcester".
He's shown pop in the minors, but theres always been questions about how well that will hold in the majors. He definitely does not profile like most of the guys (Roberts, Hernandez, Castellanos) in that list in the power tool department. No one is expecting him to consistently hit 25-35 HRs a year like that group does. Rafael is not going to work with a 30% K rate. It needs to be <25%.
Certain types of players when they hit a certain point in their development ( at AAA) just aren't going to improve facing more AAA pitching. Rafaela was a beast in a short time in AAA and likely would continue to destroy that level pitching there because he's just better than AAA pitching. The only way the Rafaela types are going to develop the necessary discipline skills at the ML level is to go to bat against ML level pitching and have the team be patient. We've talked plenty in the past here where we could see certain types of players with similar skills being traded for less than their future worth because the team just wasn't going to have the patience to let them struggle the way a team like, say... the Pirates, could. Everyone seems to think this year is another bridge year, so let him get destroyed his first few (hopefully not) months and see what happens.
Totally agree. A K rate over 30% isn't sustainable. I believe I said as much. And I don't think he's ever looked like a 30+ hr guy in the minors, but he's combined the low K rates with enough pop at slug over .500 with some consistency.
@Fishy1 did a nice job looking at walk rates so I figured I would try a similar exercise with chase rate. I think the walk rate is a problem but I view it more as a symptom and not necessarily a cause.
Fair enough, the conversation was around a set of comps; almost all of whom were guys who didnt just have average power, but had power more consistent with 30 HRs a year. Thus the response.
Thank you both.
I know that there was an organizational challenge that he chase less, which he answered to good effect in ST. But I suppose it really comes down to CR. Is he a Duran type who can and will radically retool their approach, or is he a Dalbec type who seems pushed and pulled across a very narrow band of success? Ideally you want a coaching staff that can maximize actual players, given their different skills/approaches. Not to beat a dead horse, but I'm not very sanguine about the current stable.
Their issues are very different, but your conclusion is the same. It's baseball. We wait.
And just to make the optimistic case... we've seen guys slash their K% before. Duran struck out 35% of the time in his first 115 PA in Boston. 35%! He wasn't much better in 2022 -- 28%. It was only in 2023 that he got it down to 25%.
If we'd extended Casas while he was struggling last spring, we'd probably be pretty happy about it now.
Listening to Casas' comments in ST, and Breslow's just a few days ago, something is telling me that Casas is not going to be that easy to extend...
Well, not easy to extend for below his considerable (and accurate) sense of his own value. The anecdote I heard one of the broadcasters relate in Spring was that Chaim Bloom was having a meal/informal check-in with each of the players at some point, and he sits down with Triston, who says "What's up, Chaim. Are you here to offer me $100m?"
I'll be honest here, I'm fine with both sides seeing exactly what we have in Casas before he's extended.
He’s an interesting case because the range of outcomes is pretty variable. If he is the type of hitter he was in the second half last year -and he improves his defense- he’s worth a fortune. If instead his full year 23’ numbers are more reflective of his actual talent level than he’s a lead gloved DH type who can put up an .850 OPS - a profile that is far less special. Rhys Hoskins is that guy and he could have been had for a 2-year $34 million contract this past offseason.
Not to state the obvious, but Triston Casas and Ceddanne Rafaela were/are 2 entirely different players with their own surrounding projection variables.
You can go back to the Casas thread and see multiple people pointing out that Casas was fine at the plate and just getting incredibly unlucky during his harsh stretch. He wasn't whiffing and chasing at anywhere near the level Rafaela is. The concern is he looks clueless, not the results.
Counterpoint: Myles Straw.
We are going to win 75-81 games again. Let him get a full season of mlb pitching.
