Red Sox in season discussion

Red(s)HawksFan

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My question is - surely there are folks out there who can play both parts: builder and GFIN-er in turn, when appropriate? Who can balance how they attack roster building and trades? Do you gotta be a Cherington OR a Dombrowski? Theo certainly seemed to have that balance. Maybe Bloom does, too, indicated by the Story signing (let's see if he uses a chip or two to improve the pitching) ...
Brian Cashman? Granted he's always had a financial advantage to bring in the big contracts (free agent or trade), but it's not like the Yankees haven't had a relatively steady flow of younger players over the years.

I think there are plenty of guys who can "play both parts" and it really shouldn't be an either/or question. The problem is owners often get too impatient and don't let guys finish the job one way or the other. Cherington might be someone who can do both (2013 suggests that) but he got pressured to make some rash decisions before his farm work had fully been realized and then got replaced by a "proven" GFIN type who obviously pressed all the right buttons to win in 2018.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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2012, Devin Marrero (24th), Brian Johnson (31st), Pat Light (37th)
2013, Trey Ball (7th)
2014, Michael Chavis (26th), Michael Kopech (33rd)
2015, Andrew Benintendi (7th)
2016, Jay Groome (12th)

To be fair, he signed Devers and Darwinzon in 2013-4, so I'm willing to credit him that. And a year later Moncada and, unfortunately, Castillio.

In terms of MLB trades for players or prospects, there was the Punto trade - glorious in terms of cash for subsequent free agents, but we really didn't get a single good player out of it. There were more workman like trades of Boston prospects for Porcello and Miley and Kimbrel and Sale, and shipping out various vets at trade deadlines. If we're on that particular bus though, we did send a lot of value out of the org for players like Carson Smith and Tyler Thornberg. I'm not saying those were bad trades at the moment, and luck is a factor. But it's not like the results of trading for major leaguers were unmixed.

Looking at the trades from late 2011 to 2016, I really don't see one where a significant "under the radar" younger minor league player was acquired - which you'd think would be the case if he had a lot of talent insight. Two exceptions might be
Miller for E-Rod trade in 2014. . .but IIRC E-Rod was highly regarded at the time. And cash for Sandy Leon in 2015 - that turned out great, so I'll spot him that one as a talent spot.

What Cherrington *did* do was hold onto the 2011 draft class, and not trade off many excellent players. (Barnes, JBJ, Betts, Shaw) That's a skill, and he should get credit for that.

His FA signings were a mixed bag - 2013 was an absolutely great pick up of FAs for good prices. But then, Castillo, Sandoval, H-Ram, Price. . .those did not work out well.

Overall, I'm just not seeing tremendousness here. Devers and Moncada are great gets, but if he had an eye for talent, I'd honestly expect more eventual ML over 4 years. Sure, propsects are lottery tickets and all that, but. . .there's not a ton there.
I’m genuinely not sure what point you are making by talking about Dombrowski’s trades? Is it just that there was talent present for dealing? I guess that’s a factor for evaluating Cherington. Either way, BC had nothing to do with drafting Jay Groome.
 

JM3

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I hope so. Cherington could make a pretty good career for himself as the rebuilding specialist, moving from team to team. Kind of the anti-Dombrowski.
Phillies job should be open in a couple years...
 

RG33

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Anytime a small market team excels, I’m happy. Other than when they play us. Always rooting for a guy like Ben to do well, so it’s a win-win with Pittsburgh improving.
I am conflicted here. I feel the same way — and have always had a soft spot for the Pirates because I loved the Jason Thompson baseball card with the hats with all the stars on it for some reason. I’ve always naturally disassociated the Pirates (and their fans) with the Steelers (and their fans). Even though they are in the same town, have the same colors, and have the same fucking Yinzer fans who I detest so much. It’s weird. And conflicting.
 

Yaz4Ever

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I am conflicted here. I feel the same way — and have always had a soft spot for the Pirates because I loved the Jason Thompson baseball card with the hats with all the stars on it for some reason. I’ve always naturally disassociated the Pirates (and their fans) with the Steelers (and their fans). Even though they are in the same town, have the same colors, and have the same fucking Yinzer fans who I detest so much. It’s weird. And conflicting.
I hate the Steelers, if that helps. Don’t care who they’re playing
 

nvalvo

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2012, Devin Marrero (24th), Brian Johnson (31st), Pat Light (37th)
2013, Trey Ball (7th)
2014, Michael Chavis (26th), Michael Kopech (33rd)
2015, Andrew Benintendi (7th)
2016, Jay Groome (12th)

To be fair, he signed Devers and Darwinzon in 2013-4, so I'm willing to credit him that. And a year later Moncada and, unfortunately, Castillio.
Huh. I thought he was better than that.
I don't think that's all that bad — like, at all. The miss on Trey Ball is brutal, but everybody else on that list made the majors or — in the case of Groome — could this year. Benintendi, Kopech, and Moncada are impact players. Devers might be on a Hall of Fame trajectory. That's actually a pretty great outcome.

A bad first-round drafting record would be something like Philadelphia 2008-2016:

2008 1.24 Anthony Hewitt and 1.34 Zach Collier
2009 none
2010 1.27 Jesse Biddle
2011 1.39 Larry Greene
2012 1.40 Shane Watson and 1.54 Mitch Guellar
2013 1.16 JP Crawford
2014 1.7 Aaron Nola
2015 1.10 Cornelius Randolph
2016 1.1 Mickey Moniak

We're upset about Trey Ball; how about Mickey Moniak first overall? Aaron Nola was a great selection with a high pick, and JP Crawford's a good player. Unless I'm forgetting someone, they also haven't brought in anyone terribly impactful in the international market in that timeframe, except Odubel Herrera and Ranger Suarez. Freddy Galvis?
 

Rovin Romine

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I don't think that's all that bad — like, at all.
It's not disasterous. But I was responding to the idea he had a tremendous eye for talent, and was the best choice to head up any rebuild. I just don't see any evidence he's exceptional in any way - very mixed results, with the high points being international signings and half his FA signings.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I am conflicted here. I feel the same way — and have always had a soft spot for the Pirates because I loved the Jason Thompson baseball card with the hats with all the stars on it for some reason. I’ve always naturally disassociated the Pirates (and their fans) with the Steelers (and their fans). Even though they are in the same town, have the same colors, and have the same fucking Yinzer fans who I detest so much. It’s weird. And conflicting.
My father grew up outside Pittsburg and every summer as a kid in the 70’s and early 80’s we’d go to see Pirates games when we “went home”. I got Stargell and Parker’s autographs on balls we scooped up.
Will always love that team.
I think the general mild Pirates fandom contrasts with the Steelers assholery fandom (my cousins and uncles) has everything to do with the sport itself.
 

Niastri

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My father grew up outside Pittsburg and every summer as a kid in the 70’s and early 80’s we’d go to see Pirates games when we “went home”. I got Stargell and Parker’s autographs on balls we scooped up.
Will always love that team.
I think the general mild Pirates fandom contrasts with the Steelers assholery fandom (my cousins and uncles) has everything to do with the sport itself.
Sounds a lot like my childhood, except my Dad grew up in Saugus, and I had to grow up in New York. (Insert puke emoji) I hate Yankees fans more than any other. It didn't help my name is Derek (no not like fucking Jeter!)
 

bosockboy

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Justin Upton is 34, hasn't had a decent offensive season since 2018, and hasn't played right field anywhere (never mind a place like Fenway) since 2013.
I agree he’s not perfect, but the counter argument is he’s still solid against lefties (838 OPS last year), would probably play LF with Verdugo in RF and he’s basically free. It’s bargain basement for sure, but I wouldn’t rule it out.
 

KingChre

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I agree he’s not perfect, but the counter argument is he’s still solid against lefties (838 OPS last year), would probably play LF with Verdugo in RF and he’s basically free. It’s bargain basement for sure, but I wouldn’t rule it out.
Especially if they are actually considering keeping Refsnyder. Upton is a clear upgrade there.
 

BigSoxFan

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Justin Upton is 34, hasn't had a decent offensive season since 2018, and hasn't played right field anywhere (never mind a place like Fenway) since 2013.
You missed the most important point. He's an "Upton". But I'd pretty much take anyone over Rob Refsnyder who is a complete zero. Upton would seemingly be a decent stop gap option before we decide if it's worth making a costlier trade later in the season.
 

JM3

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If Upton had a full season of at bats against only lefties last year he would have had 42 homers, .838 ops, 138 tOPS+, etc. Despite being awful last year.

If he's cheap & healthy, seems interesting.
 

JM3

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If Upton had a full season of at bats against only lefties last year he would have had 42 homers, .838 ops, 138 tOPS+, etc. Despite being awful last year.

If he's cheap & healthy, seems interesting.
For reference purposes & switching to sOPS+ because it's the more interesting stat (Upton was 127 last year):

Renfroe 34/.885/139
Dalbec 37/.877/135
JD 25/.836/123
Refsnyder 10/.784/117
Arroyo 26/.885/139

So yeah, not that amazing. But more interesting than Refsnyder & maybe the change of scenery would help.
 

TimScribble

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Upton is owed $28M this year. Maybe after he clears and is a FA? But I doubt it.
 

JM3

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Upton is owed $28M this year. Maybe after he clears and is a FA? But I doubt it.
Yeah, the 5/$106m didn't exactly work out great for the Angels. They're entirely responsible for that $28m unless someone claims him, which won't happen.
 

edoug

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Justin Upton is 34, hasn't had a decent offensive season since 2018, and hasn't played right field anywhere (never mind a place like Fenway) since 2013.
He really fell of the cliff after '18. But 17 homers in 316 AB last season he still has some pop. And at league minimum, someone to consider.
 

chawson

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Bringing in a league-minimum Upton is a no-brainer. He’s always had a good Fenway bat, still takes a lot of walks and hits the ball very hard. His barrel rate from the 19-21 is 10.5%, which FWIW is the same as Manny Machado’s.

He’d play left, with Verdugo shifting to right. Not ideal but better than JDM playing the outfield, which is more of an injury waiting to happen that would be a worse detriment to the lineup.

Upton has also looked good this spring. The Angels are DFAing him not because he’s toast, but moreso because they need the roster spot and don’t want to stunt the development of Marsh and Adell, and can’t displace Trout or Ohtani. He’d be an easy DFA if he’s got nothing by May 15, but he’s absolutely got a shot to contribute.
 
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YTF

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Bringing in a league-minimum Upton is a no-brainer. He’s always had a good Fenway bat, still takes a lot of walks and hits the ball very hard. His barrel rate from the 19-21 is 10.5%, which FWIW is the same as Manny Machado’s.

He’d play left, with Verdugo shifting to right. Not ideal but better than JDM playing the outfield, which is more of an injury waiting to happen that would be a worse detriment to the lineup.

Upton has also looked good this spring. The Angels are DFAing him not because he’s toast, but moreso because they need the roster spot and don’t want to stunt the development of Marsh and Adell, and can’t displace Trout or Ohtani. He’d be an easy DFA if he’s got nothing by May 15, but he’s absolutely got a shot to contribute.
Does it make any sense for the Sox to offer LAA a low level prospect(s) and/or some $$$ before Upton clears waivers?
 

Rice4HOF

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He really fell of the cliff after '18. But 17 homers in 316 AB last season he still has some pop. And at league minimum, someone to consider.
But he had a good first 1/2 and then fell off a cliff. Batted .247 with 14 of those HRs in the first half. He SLUGGED .242 the last half.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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I was curious about this - here are all of the active MLBers I could find who were active when Upton debuted in 2007 (maybe not literally when he debuted, but that same season):

Albert Pujols
Miguel Cabrera
Robinson Cano
Yadier Molina
Asdrubal Cabrera
Joey Votto
Nelson Cruz
Justin Verlander
Zack Greinke
Rich Hill
Joe Smith
Adam Wainwright
Ian Kennedy
Oliver Perez pitched last year but he appears to be without a team right now

Possible I missed a few, feel free to correct. I’m trying to decide if that’s more or fewer than I was expecting.
 

chawson

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Does it make any sense for the Sox to offer LAA a low level prospect(s) and/or some $$$ before Upton clears waivers?
No, I don’t think so. We’ve got no underwater contracts to shed and they’ve got a terrible system they don’t want to trade from, and very few prospects who’d make up the diff. They may also want to do him the courtesy of being able to sign where he wants.

It may just be a smart move for him to come here. Fenway is a good park for him, and I don’t think any other contender could give him a platoon OF role and the potential for 300 PAs.
 

TapeAndPosts

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I was curious about this - here are all of the active MLBers I could find who were active when Upton debuted in 2007 (maybe not literally when he debuted, but that same season):
Feels a little sad that not a single 2007 Red Sox is still playing for any team. I guess Lester was the last one (and Matsuzaka, counting his playing in NPB).
 

edoug

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But he had a good first 1/2 and then fell off a cliff. Batted .247 with 14 of those HRs in the first half. He SLUGGED .242 the last half.
Thanks, that is incredible. He still had 4 years left on his contract worth 90 million. Must've been comforting.
 

moondog80

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Feels a little sad that not a single 2007 Red Sox is still playing for any team. I guess Lester was the last one (and Matsuzaka, counting his playing in NPB).
Life comes at you fast. The only ones left from 2013 are Jose Iglesias, JBJ and Xander, none of whom were major contributors (combined for 391 PA). A couple of others (Brandon Workman and Ryan Lavaranway) are still in the minors.
 

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Life comes at you fast. The only ones left from 2013 are Jose Iglesias, JBJ and Xander, none of whom were major contributors (combined for 391 PA). A couple of others (Brandon Workman and Ryan Lavaranway) are still in the minors.
Bard was a very, very, very minor contributor on that team as well
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Does it make any sense for the Sox to offer LAA a low level prospect(s) and/or some $$$ before Upton clears waivers?
No. Claiming him or trading for him means taking on part or all of his $21M cap hit ($28M actual paycheck). He should easily clear waivers due to what he's owed. Then it's a matter of talking him into playing here as JBJ's platoon partner versus some other team promising him more playing time. And he'd only cost the league minimum.
 

TapeAndPosts

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Life comes at you fast. The only ones left from 2013 are Jose Iglesias, JBJ and Xander, none of whom were major contributors (combined for 391 PA). A couple of others (Brandon Workman and Ryan Lavaranway) are still in the minors.
And the Brockstar's still trying to hang on.

I just figured Manny would still be playing in Indonesia somewhere! Today I turned the same age as him, and if he's still playing, well...
 

OCD SS

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No. Claiming him or trading for him means taking on part or all of his $21M cap hit ($28M actual paycheck). He should easily clear waivers due to what he's owed. Then it's a matter of talking him into playing here as JBJ's platoon partner versus some other team promising him more playing time. And he'd only cost the league minimum.
Remember that the CBA has changed this detail and that his cap hit is recalculated to the Sox at the backloaded salary…

If the Sox saw him as a RHH OFer to platoon with JBJ, they can probably work out a deal absorbing slightly more than his minimum salary for a middling prospect. Whether they want to do that or not is an open question; maybe they like Refsnyder’s positional flexibility?
 

Cesar Crespo

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And he's only 34!!! Seriously it seems like he's been around for 20 years.
Because he has. He's going into season 16. Season 17 at all levels.

Other interesting Upton splits last year:
Home: .253/.330/.543 in 185 PA
Road: .167/.261/.269 in 177 PA

1st half: .247/.336/.480 in 246 PA. 30bb/74k. Nice!
2nd half: .126/.200/.242 in 106 PA. 9bb/33k. Eww.

Slash by month:
Mar/Apr: .231/.299/.449 87 PA
May: .188/.258/.388 89 PA
June: .339/.463/.631, 80 PA
July: .139/.184/.278, 38 PA
August: .125/.219/.232, 65 PA
Sept/Oct: .000/.000/.000 3 PA

An optimistic person would say he rushed back from injury in 2019, that 2020 doesn't count, and that he was on his way to having a good season until injury in 2021.

Is there any chance of a rebound here? He wasn't that bad in the first half.
 

Frisbetarian

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With the current roster and based on statements from Cora, it appears JD Martinez will be playing some outfield for the Red Sox this season. I'm not a fan of this because I think he's brutal defensively, but that's not the point of this post.

I've seen it said on SoSH a few times that JD is a much better hitter as a DH, and I wanted to look into that a little more before it becomes canon here. For his career, JD has had pretty similar results when he was a DH and when he played in the OF.

Career PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRAA
LF 1484 0.281 0.333 0.457 0.341 114
RF 2048 0.299 0.367 0.575 0.383 147
Tot OF 3532 0.291 0.353 0.525 0.365 133
DH 1729 0.286 0.356 0.534 0.370 131



It is absolutely true JD hit better from the DH spot last season, when he slashed .306/.367/.577 as a DH and .222/.286/.325 when he played left or right. But he had just 137 PA as a fielder last season, and that sample is pretty small, so I think it makes sense to look at the previous few seasons. Since he has had 91% of his DH at bats with the Red Sox, I focused on his time here. His 2021 numbers follow:


2021 PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRAA
LF 122 0.230 0.287 0.354 0.270 64
RF 25 0.182 0.280 0.182 0.225 34
Tot OF 147 0.222 0.286 0.325 0.262 59
DH 486 0.306 0.367 0.577 0.394 148


The 2020 season was a waste. JD had an awful season at the plate, and had just 27 PA as an outfielder, so we can't learn much from that.

Interestingly, however, JD was a significantly better hitter as an outfielder in both the 2018 and 2019 seasons, particularly in 2018 when he slashed .383/.450/.680 in 249 PA when we was playing in the field, vs a not at all shabby .297/.373/.596 as a DH. Here's the data from those 2 years:


2018 PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRAA
LF 140 0.394 0.450 0.701 0.482 208
RF 109 0.370 0.450 0.652 0.454 189
Tot OF 249 0.383 0.450 0.680 0.470 200
DH 400 0.297 0.373 0.596 0.401 152


2019 PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRAA
LF 62 0.304 0.471 0.589 0.397 146
RF 108 0.348 0.426 0.739 0.464 191
Tot OF 170 0.332 0.442 0.684 0.440 175
DH 485 0.293 0.372 0.512 0.366 125


Overall, in 593 PA playing the OF with the Red Sox, JD's BA/OBP/SLG is .318/.397/.570, and as a DH in 1581 PA he is at .288/.361/.540.


Tot w Red Sox PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRAA
LF 335 0.311 0.386 0.540 0.380 138
RF 258 0.328 0.411 0.610 0.421 165
Tot OF 593 0.318 0.397 0.570 0.398 149
DH 1581 0.288 0.361 0.540 0.375 133


Despite Martinez' struggles at the plate last season while he was in the outfield, he has had significant offensive success while playing the field with the Red Sox in the past. With the sample sizes and the weird 2020 season, it is impossible to predict how he'll hit when he plays the OF next season with any accuracy. But it is folly to say his offense is worse when he plays in the outfield.

His defense, however...
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Assuming most of the games in the OF since he joined the Sox has been against NL teams though, right? Has he faced a higher quality of pitching in those games?

I’m sort of confused about JD playing the field since it’s not clear to me who DH’s in those games. Given the current roster, I am guessing the DH will just be used to give guys like Devers, Bogaerts, etc. a day off from the field? Which I guess would get Arroyo into the game defensively.

They really just need a guy who can play OF against lefties.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Assuming most of the games in the OF since he joined the Sox has been against NL teams though, right? Has he faced a higher quality of pitching in those games?

I’m sort of confused about JD playing the field since it’s not clear to me who DH’s in those games. Given the current roster, I am guessing the DH will just be used to give guys like Devers, Bogaerts, etc. a day off from the field? Which I guess would get Arroyo into the game defensively.

They really just need a guy who can play OF against lefties.
I don't think your assumption is correct. The Sox have played roughly 10 games a year in NL parks through JD's tenure in Boston, so about 30 games in total excluding 2020 due to universal DH. JD has made 135 starts (137 total games) in the outfield in his Red Sox tenure. He's played the outfield far more in games where the DH spot was available than not.

As much as we may not like it due to his atrocious defense, they have always treated him as the defacto 4th OF on the team, even when they were carrying four other outfielders (or more when you consider guys like Holt, Kike, and Marwin). It should be no real surprise that they intend to continue to do that this year.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Yep, looks like I was wrong. Only 9 of the 36 games last year were in NL parks. The bulk of his defensive starts last season came in August - September, when Schwarber was the DH. In 2018, he played the OF a bunch when Hanley DH’d. So in many instances, he’s playing because an equally bad or worse defensive player DH’d. That seems to be the difference this year in that there isn’t a guy like that who JD should be playing the field over.

Although, at this point, it kind of seems like Franchy Cordero should make the team, doesn’t it?
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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Yep, looks like I was wrong. Only 9 of the 36 games last year were in NL parks. The bulk of his defensive starts last season came in August - September, when Schwarber was the DH. In 2018, he played the OF a bunch when Hanley DH’d. So in many instances, he’s playing because an equally bad or worse defensive player DH’d. That seems to be the difference this year in that there isn’t a guy like that who JD should be playing the field over.
2018 DHs other than JD: Ramirez (18 games), Pearce (11 games), Nunez (10), Swihart (8), Betts (3), Devers (2), Travis (2), Holt (2), Vazquez

2019 DHs other than JD: Vazquez (11), Nunez (10), Betts (6), Travis (6), Pearce (5), Moreland (3), Pedroia (2), Devers, Bogaerts

2020 DHs other than JD: Vazquez (4), Plawecki (2), Pillar, Verdugo, Dalbec, Chavis, Bogaerts, Munoz

2021 DHs other than JD: Schwarber (13), Bogaerts (6), Plawecki (5), Devers (4), Vazquez (3), Santana (2), Shaw (2), Cordero, Verdugo

It doesn't seem a stretch to think his outfield appearances would coincided with a list of DHs similar to 2019 at least. Different names, obviously, but a relatively even spread of 7-9 guys covering 30-40ish games.
 

cantor44

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I'm surprised there are no whispers in the press (though admittedly I have not done a deep dive) about Upton to the Sox ...if he's willing to be a platoon player, he kinda seems like an obvious fit. The team has a few holes still, and of course they can't all be dealt with now - some will have to wait for the trade deadline if the Sox are in the hunt ...Anyway, a RHH outfielder with some pop is one of them ...And then maybe another arm (my fantasies of a Manaea to the Sox trade recently dashed), given the health of the current stable of arms ....