I'd entertain bringing Steven Wright in if not for the baggage. It really can't be worse at this point (save for the domestic abuse, that's where it can be worse).
Edit: Annnd the TJ.
Edit: Annnd the TJ.
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For sure Perez has been pretty decent. I know it's a different world, but it wasn't THAT long ago (uh, maybe it was) that we were agonizing over Dice-K's inability to get through six innings. Perez gets through five giving up only 2 runs and we're excited about it. How times have changed.One thing that's really striking to me is how downright good Martín Perez has been.
He's had four starts:
5 IP, 4 ER on 6 H, 2 SO/2 BB
5.2 IP, 2 ER on 2 H, 5 SO/4 BB
5.0 IP, 0 ER on 4 H, 4 SO/3 BB
5.2 IP, 2 ER on 3 H, 5 SO/2 BB
He hasn't finished six innings yet, and he's walking too many guys. But he's finished 5 every time out, and he's extremely stingy with base hits. That's a 3.38 ERA, about half a run below his 3.86 FIP.
Now, his results have historically tracked his HR rate, and he's only given up one long ball in almost 22 innings. It may be that this is unsustainable given that he basically pairs Matt Barnes' walk rate with half of Matt Barnes' strikeout rate. But the theory behind the signing was that Perez was good at missing the barrel and inducing soft contact, and, well, among pitchers with 50 or more batted balls, he is second in lowest exit velocity, third in fewest balls hit 95 MPH or faster, tenth lowest in barrels/PA. In those statistics, he's right there with guys like Kyle Hendricks, Kenta Maeda, Zack Wheeler, Dustin May — you know, good pitchers.
Most of those guys also strike out more hitters, so they're going to have less variance right there, but it's clear what Bloom was trying to do with this signing, and, well, Perez has produced the desired results. If he were our fourth starter instead of our second as was planned, we'd be over the moon about what a genius Chaim Bloom was.
We have a very reasonable club option for next season at $6.25m; I imagine that will get picked up.
Something of a tangental comment on my part, but Dice-K's tenure with the Sox is definitely subject to recency bias. His first two years were excellent, then an injury year, then a journeyman year (game logs - https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=matsuda01&t=p&year=2010 ), then two injury years, the last of which (2012) was way worse than what Perez has given us. (https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=matsuda01&t=p&year=2012 ), so it's a bit apples and oranges.For sure Perez has been pretty decent. I know it's a different world, but it wasn't THAT long ago (uh, maybe it was) that we were agonizing over Dice-K's inability to get through six innings. Perez gets through five giving up only 2 runs and we're excited about it. How times have changed.
Haha that story is good.Something of a tangental comment on my part, but Dice-K's tenure with the Sox is definitely subject to recency bias. His first two years were excellent, then an injury year, then a journeyman year (game logs - https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=matsuda01&t=p&year=2010 ), then two injury years, the last of which (2012) was way worse than what Perez has given us. (https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=matsuda01&t=p&year=2012 ), so it's a bit apples and oranges.
The GF, a casual Cubs fan, asked how the Sox were doing this year; I explained they lost their #1 and #2, and had traded their #3 but essentially replaced him, and picked up a decent #4. Took her a half beat and she said. . ."Well, that sounds bad, but they can't be worse than the Marlins, can they?"
So I made my sad face.
Isn't part of it the fact that pitchers are still ramping up? Matsuzaka was barely getting through 6 with 100-110+ pitches. Perez's season high pitch count is the 94 in his most recent start. If he were given 110 pitches, odds are he'd be pitching into the 7th and this wouldn't be a talking point at all.Haha that story is good.
On Dice-K....even in his two good years (2007, 2008)...
2007: 15-12, 4.40 era, 4.23 fip, 108 era+, 1.32 whip, 8.8 k/9, 6 1/3 innings per start
2008: 18-3, 2.90 era, 4.03 fip, 160 era+, 1.32 whip, 8.3 k/9, 5 2/3 innings per start
So his 2007 campaign was a little above average (definitely not "excellent"), and he was a little over 6.1 ip per start. His 2008 season was obviously great from an era and W-L perspective, but his whip was still terrible and he didn't even average six innings a start.
Which is my point. It was maddening watching Dice-K navigate through 5+ innings, rarely getting through six. We thought, ok, the results end up being fine in that he doesn't allow many runs over those 5+ innings, but man can he EVER get deep into a game?
Now with Perez it's like...woohoo he got through five!!!
Just saying that times and expectations have changed is all.
Perez' ip per game since 2016:Isn't part of it the fact that pitchers are still ramping up? Matsuzaka was barely getting through 6 with 100-110+ pitches. Perez's season high pitch count is the 94 in his most recent start. If he were given 110 pitches, odds are he'd be pitching into the 7th and this wouldn't be a talking point at all.
Oh, I wasn't disputing that. And I should have looked more carefully at DK's 2007 numbers. I went back and took a closer look at them, because I didn't remember a pedestrian 2007 from him. He was a bit up and down, throughout the year, but his numbers definitely caved in September. His 2007 post season was very much the 5 inning start 2 run variety.Just saying that times and expectations have changed is all.
Well, expectations going in were a bit different. Dice-K had a ton of hype and was the subject of a big bidding war. Perez was a scrap heap pick up nobody expected much from.Perez' ip per game since 2016:
2016: 6.0
2017: 5.8
2018: 3.9
2019: 5.2
2020: 5.3
TOT: 5.3
So he's right where he normally is, ramp-up or not. Again, my point is simply that we're excited he's getting through five innings with minor damage. Not that long ago we were tortured by Dice-K that he couldn't get through six innings, even though he also usually did so with minor damage. The game, and expectations for starting pitchers, has changed. That's my point.
Let him throw right-handedRehabbing Chris Sale might be better than these jokers
Yep. But expectations for starting pitchers *on the whole* are different than they used to be too.Well, expectations going in were a bit different. Dice-K had a ton of hype and was the subject of a big bidding war. Perez was a scrap heap pick up nobody expected much from.
We are close to making history!The Red Sox have allowed 8+ runs in 5 straight games, tying the longest streak in franchise history. Similar stretches of pitching futility had previously been achieved in 1930 and 1909.
In 1909 they finished 88-63.
I wouldn’t be surprised if #5 was an opener.So what does next year's pitching rotation and bullpen look like? Sale/Eovaldi/ERod/Perez and a FA signing? Maybe someone like Mike Leake, Marcus Stroman, or Robbie Ray?
We do seem to be getting good looks at some of the bullpen guys. Brasier seems done, but Valdez and Osich seem like real middle relief guys. Should we go out and try and sign known commodity for the pen or just let Bloom pick up some guys he thinks can be valuable pieces?
I think I read that they’re hoping he’s back by June-July 2021.I'd expect Sale's ETA to be closer to mid season, no?
So, ERod, Eovaldi, Perez, FA, X seems more likely.
I guess the question - and it’s a larger discussion - is what’s the plan? Is 2021 going to be a rebuilding year or do they plan to try to be competitive? I sort of think the former, but maybe it’s still TBD.So what does next year's pitching rotation and bullpen look like? Sale/Eovaldi/ERod/Perez and a FA signing? Maybe someone like Mike Leake, Marcus Stroman, or Robbie Ray?
We do seem to be getting good looks at some of the bullpen guys. Brasier seems done, but Valdez and Osich seem like real middle relief guys. Should we go out and try and sign known commodity for the pen or just let Bloom pick up some guys he thinks can be valuable pieces?
I don't think it's a foregone conclusion here that Eduardo Rodriguez is in the team's long-term plans here. Presuming his service time still moves this year despite not playing, he'd be a FA after 2021. He was definitely a solid pitcher in 2019 (he was even better in 2018), but he's started 24+ games once in his major league career. He actually posted a career worst BA against and WHIP in 2019 despite the W total. I think Rodriguez is a solid #3 SP in baseball, but we really don't know how his health will come back and we don't have enough time to really evaluate him in 2020 before we have to make a decision. If the team is lousy again, and he's a FA to be [because there's no way we're extending him] then I have to imagine he's on the block July 31st.I guess the question - and it’s a larger discussion - is what’s the plan? Is 2021 going to be a rebuilding year or do they plan to try to be competitive? I sort of think the former, but maybe it’s still TBD.
It took one fucking day to set the record!
The 2020 Red Sox are the first team in franchise history to allow 8+ runs in 6 straight games. They're the 25th team ever to do so. The record is 7 straight games of 8+ runs allowed (done 5x, most recently in 2000 by the Orioles and Mariners).
Let’s see if we can set another team record.The worst ERA in Red Sox franchise history is 5.02. The 2020 team has a 6.10 mark. They're 6-15.
It’s a tough one. For 2021 with ERod back and Sale likely available ~June, the rotation will suddenly look competent again, plus there’s the luxury tax reset and so much salary coming off the books. Let’s say they give Trevor Bauer $30M/1 year, sign a few solid RPs like Jeffress or Pedro Baez, and do basically nothing else, a Sale/Bauer/ERod/Eovaldi/Perez rotation with a Verudgo/Devers/Xander/JDM heart of the order feels like a possible contender, right?I guess the question - and it’s a larger discussion - is what’s the plan? Is 2021 going to be a rebuilding year or do they plan to try to be competitive? I sort of think the former, but maybe it’s still TBD.
Odd to see the 2000 Mariners as one of the teams we tied. They made the ALCS that year, their first without Griffey (and famously went on to win 116 the next year without ARod).It took one fucking day to set the record!
Winner!
I was about to say what the heck, but I remembered Bauer has sworn to only take 1 year contracts.Trevor Bauer $30M/1 year
I know, he’s the dude who cut his finger in the World Series because he was playing around with a drone and is generally a wackadoodle.I was about to say what the heck, but I remembered Bauer has sworn to only take 1 year contracts.
He's a wild one. Pass.
Does kind of feel like they just decided to punt the season, since it is so short and strange anyway, and give anyone who may have even a remote shot at being a 5/6 guy in the rotation next year a chance. Understandable approach with the way COVID has transformed this year but I am definitely not watching any of the games.
I mean, when you're tied with a daily record, that would stand to reason, that the next day it would either be broken or not.It took one fucking day to set the record!
I don't know if it was different radar guns or just that they somehow aimed them differently or what, but somewhere in the mid to late 2000's, didn't they go from reading the speed of the pitch a fair distance from the pitcher to reading it right as the ball left his hand.It's crazy how 88 mph is way below average MLB velocity. You know how hard 88 mph is? It's really freaking fast. It's on you as a hitter like *that*. Of course, when you're used to 95, 88 is nothing. But for us mere mortals, an 88 mph fastball is like lightning.
It's just funny how good these guys really are. Even the "bad" players at this level are just unbelievably good at baseball.
What's the alternative? If they had clear better options than the guys they're sending out to the mound they'd use them. I don't think it's punting, they lost their #1 and #2 starters when they already didn't have a #5 and didn't really have any way to replace them. I don't think it has anything to do with COVID (other than the fact that without covid they'd have erod)Does kind of feel like they just decided to punt the season, since it is so short and strange anyway, and give anyone who may have even a remote shot at being a 5/6 guy in the rotation next year a chance. Understandable approach with the way COVID has transformed this year but I am definitely not watching any of the games.
I truly dont mind them doing that this season. We are already halfway through and won't need to sit through this much longer. I won't watch the games because they are objectively terrible. Maybe they would have tried harder to get more ML pitching roster talent if they had a whole season but with this strange shortened year what is the point? We all just have to grin and bear it until the lux tax resets and then Bloom has the opportunity to remake the pitching staff to his liking.What's the alternative? If they had clear better options than the guys they're sending out to the mound they'd use them. I don't think it's punting, they lost their #1 and #2 starters when they already didn't have a #5 and didn't really have any way to replace them. I don't think it has anything to do with COVID (other than the fact that without covid they'd have erod)
This offseason might be a good time to hammer out an extension, if they're confident he's healthy.ERod has tricky value right now until his status with myocarditis is cleared up. don't see him going anywhere, but also his arbitration value in his final season is likely to not go up at all.
There are some better options, and I think we'll see some of them pretty soon. Darwinzon Hernandez is stretching out with an Roenicke being cagey about putting him in the rotation. I'd expect to see Houck get some starts in September, unless he still really can't get lefties out. Mata, whom I think is a better prospect than either, we probably don't see until next season.What's the alternative? If they had clear better options than the guys they're sending out to the mound they'd use them. I don't think it's punting, they lost their #1 and #2 starters when they already didn't have a #5 and didn't really have any way to replace them. I don't think it has anything to do with COVID (other than the fact that without covid they'd have erod)
The Red Sox have allowed 86 runs over their last 9 games -- the most they've given up over any 9-game stretch in their 120-season history.
In order for the Red Sox to avoid the worst ERA in franchise history, they'd have to have roughly a 4.20 ERA over the remainder of the season.
At this point I wouldn’t put it past this rotation to get close enough to the record.I’ll go ahead and take a guess that they won’t set a team record for most runs allowed in a season. The rate stats are all in play, though.
Two things wrong with this statement:At this point I wouldn’t put it past this rotation to get close enough to the record.