Reasons to worry about Chris Sale: From 5/6 through 9/11, Sale averaged 97.1 mph on his fastball. But during his last three starts (and it got worse in the playoffs), he averaged just 92.6 mph. We clearly saw the loss in velocity and a corresponding loss in control, as he had to give more effort to ramp up the speed, which normally results in less control. Yes he was dominant in that last inning to close out the WS, but before then, he was shaky. And last night, he averaged just 92.3 mph on his fastball, and we saw the lack of control (even some of his strikes were not close to the target) that came with it, and the results were awful.
So to me, that's cause for concern.
But then, here are reasons NOT to worry: Last year, his first 4 starts, he averaged just 93.2 on his fastball, and his first 7 starts averaged just 93.8. A far cry from his 97.1 he would average during the middle (bulk) of the season. Yet over those first 4 starts he had a 1.23 era, 0.95 whip, and 12.7 k/9. And over those first 7 starts he had a 2.14 era, 0.98 whip, and a 14.8 k/9. So he can be effective with diminished velocity. And more to the point, his velocity last night was more in line with how he started last year as well. And then he saw increased velocity over May, June, and July.
I do wonder though...last year he made a mechanical change after the first month that gave him a serious uptick in velocity. But it appears that that mechanical change may have resulted in the shoulder problems that plagued him late. Maybe he can't ramp it up anymore without that mechanical change, but that change is likely to lead to injury?