Patriots last 8 playoff games, points scored: 34, 36, 34, 35, 24, 33, 41, 37 = 34.3 average
Patriots last 3 Super Bowls played:
- 28 points against one of the best defenses of all time
- 34 points in the greatest comeback in SB history
- 33 points against the #4 defense in the NFL
Brady last 3 Super Bowls played:
- 37-50, 328 yds, 4 td, 2 int, 101.1 rating
- 43-62, 466 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 95.2 rating
- 28-48, 505 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 115.4 rating
- TOT: 108-160 (67.5%), 1,299 yds, 9 td, 3 int, 103.1 rating
Two playoff games this year:
- 41 points, 498 yards, 30 first downs, 155 yds rushing, 38:20 TOP
- 37 points, 524 yards, 36 first downs, 176 yds rushing, 43:59 TOP
They are going up against a Rams team with some very talented defensive players, but who finished:
- 20th in points allowed
- 19th in yards allowed
- 17th in passer rating allowed
- 20th in pass completion percentage allowed
- 32nd in rush yards per attempt allowed
- 23rd in rush yards allowed
- 14th in red zone TD percentage allowed
- 12th in third down conversion percentage allowed
- 19th in DVOA
In other words.... Just not a very good defense. They can't seem to stop the run, they allow a ton of yards and points, and let the opposing QB complete passes at a very high rate. And they're not "bend but don't break" as they are only average at stopping teams in the red zone. So all signs point to the Patriots being able to move the ball and put points on the board in this game.
That said, they do offer some challenges that could trouble the Patriots' offense.
1. They have a very very strong interior defensive line. Suh often underperforms his ability, but when he's playing like he's capable of, he's a game-wrecker. And of course, they have the best defensive player in the game, DT Aaron Donald. Donald had 20.5 sacks (41 QB hits) and led the league in tackle for losses, with 25. When it comes to stopping Brady, the #1 thing you need to do is get pressure up the middle, and no team in the NFL is better at that than the Rams.
2. They actually do a good job defending running backs. I thought this was a weakness, but
Football Outsiders says they are ranked #4 in the league defending running backs in the passing game. That happens to be a major strength of the Patriots, so the Rams seem well-suited to defend that.
3. They also do a good job defending tight ends. Gronk isn't GRONK anymore, but as this past week showed, he's more than capable of making huge plays. The Rams are ranked #5 in the league in defending opposing tight ends in the passing game. So again, they are well-suited to limit Gronk.
4. They finished 3rd in the NFL in takeaways. They had 18 interceptions and 12 fumble recoveries, so they really get after taking the ball away. And the Patriots...well...Brady definitely has thrown some picks in the playoffs so it wouldn't be at all surprising to see him throw one, even two, interceptions - or an INT and get strip-sacked - in this Super Bowl. In his last 13 playoff games, Brady has committed 12 turnovers, and he's committed a turnover in 8 of the 13 games.
You can run on them, and while they seem to do a good job covering opposing RBs and TEs, and even #2 WRs (9th in the NFL by DVOA), they struggle against opposing teams' #1 and #3 WRs (28th vs #1s, 24th vs #3s). So this means that Edelman and Hogan probably will get lots of opportunities to make plays. However, if the Patriots stick with the 2 RB, I-formation sets, plus Gronk, that means they won't be spreading the Rams out and isolating their weaker DBs in one-on-one matchups and taking advantage of that. So it will be interesting to see how the Patriots play it.
The numbers point to the Patriots being able to move the ball and put up points, but the Rams do possess the ability to make big plays - sacks, turnovers, etc. - against the Patriots. And, frankly, I expect both to happen. I expect NE to move the ball and score, but I expect some big plays from the Rams' defense that either lead directly to points, or set up the Rams' offense in good field position, or deny the Patriots points (if the big plays come deep in Rams' territory). Those big plays keep the Rams in the game and we are all lamenting how the Patriots' mistakes (and Rams' big plays) are preventing NE from blowing them out, and it ends up needing a big fourth quarter for the Patriots to win.