After an underwhelming showing in 2022 and 2021, Jarren Duran was one of the better stories of 2023. His dramatic gains with the bat were striking, jumping from a subpar .284 wOBA (in 223 ABs in 22') to a .354 wOBA (in 362 ABs in 23'). And he was dynamic on the base paths, showing a unique ability to stretch singles into doubles while swiping 24 bases in 26 attempts. In the end he finished with a remarkable 2.4 fWAR in an injury shortened season.
What's less clear is whether Duran's ascent is sustainable, with many of the projection systems publicly available predicting declines in 2024. Both Ariel Cohen's ATC projection system and Steamer predict Duran to be worth just 1.4 fWAR in 24' (with far more ABs). FGDC predicts 1.3 fWAR.
So if these projections are accurate, wouldn't it be best to sell high on Duran this offseason? I think this is a crucial question for Breslow. After all, success as a GM isn't just about who you acquire but who you decide to let go and when. If this is Duran's peak value, shouldn't they sell high when they still can?
What's less clear is whether Duran's ascent is sustainable, with many of the projection systems publicly available predicting declines in 2024. Both Ariel Cohen's ATC projection system and Steamer predict Duran to be worth just 1.4 fWAR in 24' (with far more ABs). FGDC predicts 1.3 fWAR.
So if these projections are accurate, wouldn't it be best to sell high on Duran this offseason? I think this is a crucial question for Breslow. After all, success as a GM isn't just about who you acquire but who you decide to let go and when. If this is Duran's peak value, shouldn't they sell high when they still can?