SoSH Survivor Pool - Week 1 Discussion

RedOctober3829 · Aug 29, 2015

I'm leaning towards Dallas. The Giants are going to have a poor pass defense so Romo should carve them up. They are at home too. You're right, Week 1 is very tough.

Papelbon's Poutine · Aug 29, 2015

Anyone have thoughts on Miami at Washington? I think the Dolphins might be a team to consider.

RedOctober3829 · Aug 29, 2015

Papelbon's Poutine said:
Anyone have thoughts on Miami at Washington? I think the Dolphins might be a team to consider.

I don't trust Miami in a survivor pool much especially on the road. Given the Redskins are a disaster right now, it gives me pause but Dallas is the better bet IMO.

Ferm Sheller · Aug 29, 2015

What about SD winning at home against the Lions?

NortheasternPJ · Aug 29, 2015

Wow. I hadn't looked yet. Week 1 is brutal. I hate every game on there. Carolina looks ok i guess?

So many bad teams out there.

JoePoulson · Aug 29, 2015

I like AZ at home, but actually picking them is always tough.

Kliq · Aug 29, 2015

I like the Dolphins pick a lot. Washington is a disaster right now and the way things are going for that franchise, playing at home might not be that much of an advantage for them. I don't think Miami are worldbeaters but considering the other matchups, I think they are a good pick for week 1. Dallas looks good to, but I wouldn't want to waste them on Week 1, save them for when they host Washington or something.

JoePoulson · Aug 29, 2015

Dallas lost to Colt McCoy last year at home. Divisional games are hard to predict

snowmanny · Aug 29, 2015

tims4wins said:
Saints are such a wild card, they could be a playoff team or could be like 5-11

Or both.

j44thor · Aug 29, 2015

GB and jets for me, chi is awful and I don't see how cle scores against jets d

amarshal2 · Aug 29, 2015

j44thor said:
GB and jets for me, chi is awful and I don't see how cle scores against jets d

Road division game be damned, that GB matchup is my favorite. Chicago is awful. Week 1 is always weird so maybe GB looks like they did 52 weeks ago but more likely they slaughter a weak Bears team with no starter caliber defensive players.

AJ McCarron is carving up the Bears defensive starters as I type.

glennhoffmania · Aug 29, 2015

True but you want to burn GB in week 1?

NortheasternPJ · Aug 29, 2015

glennhoffmania said:
True but you want to burn GB in week 1?

Another year, the same debate on this philosophy. I personally hate the idea of saving teams. One week at a time here.

mauidano · Aug 29, 2015

Still pretty early team. Let's see how it all this preseason finishes up.

koufax32 · Aug 29, 2015

NortheasternPJ said:
Wow. I hadn't looked yet. Week 1 is brutal. I hate every game on there. Carolina looks ok i guess?

So many bad teams out there.

Very unwise to pick Carolina. Jacksonville has improved exponentially on paper and in the vanilla that is the preseason as well. Their oline was one of the worst last year and could legitimately be a top 5-10 line by the end of this year. Bortles has been excellent so far. He has improved exponentially as well. Carolina is not scoring 20 something points in this game. All that adds up to significant risk. I imagine a lot of people will be going CAR thinking JAX is like last year's whipping post again. They're more like this year's Mets: a team that is not a title contender but one that raises eyebrows and plays above national talking head expectations.

You'd be safer picking JAX,imo.

koufax32 · Aug 29, 2015

Don't the Giants and Cowboys always lose at home to each other?

Kenny F'ing Powers · Aug 29, 2015

Kliq said:
I like the Dolphins pick a lot. Washington is a disaster right now and the way things are going for that franchise, playing at home might not be that much of an advantage for them. I don't think Miami are worldbeaters but considering the other matchups, I think they are a good pick for week 1. Dallas looks good to, but I wouldn't want to waste them on Week 1, save them for when they host Washington or something.

Yep, all this.

Miami has only 1 more good opportunity to take them this season (vs Tennessee).

We should be leaning heavily on picking against this putrid Redskins team. They're going to struggle putting 14 points on the board every week. Especially early while their only play maker (DeSean Jackson) is slow to recover from injuries.

This feels like an easy, no brainer to me.

Kenny F'ing Powers · Aug 29, 2015

Fwiw, I think Philly rolls Atlanta, but I'd rather save Philly for later and use Miami now

glennhoffmania · Aug 29, 2015

mauidano said:
Still pretty early team. Let's see how it all this preseason finishes up.

Agree with this.

And PJ, I hear you. I just think in a pool this size you have to take a couple of gambles to have a shot.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Aug 30, 2015

Maybe instead of thinking about who is going to win, we should think about it the other way - who is most likely to lose. Problem seems to be, however, that it's difficult to figure out which teams really suck this year.

Seems like 49ers, Oakland, and Bears are the top candidates, with TB and Titans also in that company assuming that neither of their QBs has a spectacular rookie season.. Also, Jets, Bills, and Browns will have a hard time scoring but have a good to great defenses that should keep them in games.

I agree with TWs above that JAC will be better than last year, for whatever that's worth.

JoePoulson · Aug 30, 2015

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Maybe instead of thinking about who is going to win, we should think about it the other way - who is most likely to lose. Problem seems to be, however, that it's difficult to figure out which teams really suck this year.

Seems like 49ers, Oakland, and Bears are the top candidates, with TB and Titans also in that company assuming that neither of their QBs has a spectacular rookie season.. Also, Jets, Bills, and Browns will have a hard time scoring but have a good to great defenses that should keep them in games.

I agree with TWs above that JAC will be better than last year, for whatever that's worth.

Which makes week 1 that much more epic! Anyone have the stones to take TB over TEN? I def like the Bucs in this battle of awful teams.

Kenny F'ing Powers · Aug 30, 2015

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Maybe instead of thinking about who is going to win, we should think about it the other way - who is most likely to lose. Problem seems to be, however, that it's difficult to figure out which teams really suck this year.

Seems like 49ers, Oakland, and Bears are the top candidates, with TB and Titans also in that company assuming that neither of their QBs has a spectacular rookie season.. Also, Jets, Bills, and Browns will have a hard time scoring but have a good to great defenses that should keep them in games.

I agree with TWs above that JAC will be better than last year, for whatever that's worth.

Oakland won't be good, but their offense will be miles better then it's been in the past. I'd like to see them play a few weeks before seeing what they really are.

chief1 · Aug 30, 2015

tims4wins said:
I certainly don't have the stones to back Winston in his first pro start. 6-15 for 90 with a pick last night. Mariota was 7-11 for 99. Tennessee is going to suck but Tampa is gonna suck too. That's a coin flip IMO, although a lot of week 1 games are.

I am starting to think Philly may be the best bet.

Atlanta killed me last year. Could never get it right with them, but it seems they are a much better home team. Suppose you could say that about most if not all NFL teams, but I think more so with them. Would be curios to know what the home/road splits were.

tonyandpals · Aug 30, 2015

Thanks for kicking this off. Lots of good chatter here. I agree with many others in that we should try to identify which teams are bad...

dcmissle · Aug 30, 2015

koufax32 said:
Don't the Giants and Cowboys always lose at home to each other?

Dallas is the only home team week 1 I have anything approaching confidence in at this point. I am assuming JG plays week 1 until a federal judge orders otherwise. Baltimore has not looked great the past two weeks, but if Denver's O-line struggles, Denver likely is screwed in that matchup.

Tough week. I don't like picking road teams. And I particularly don't like doing it early.

RetractableRoof · Aug 30, 2015

I have no vote, but does anyone think the Washington offensive line is going to be able to keep their QB upright against Suh and the Dolphins rush?

I also don't trust the Dallas defense against anyone - especially since they seem to have no secondary.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Aug 30, 2015

I have no vote, but does anyone think the Washington offensive line is going to be able to keep their QB upright against Suh and the Dolphins rush?

I also don't trust the Dallas defense against anyone - especially since they seem to have no secondary.

I would be much more comfortable picking against WAS if RG III is starting. However, from what I am reading, he (at the very least) won't be cleared to play until after week 1 so it's going to be Cousins or McCoy. That's a huge upgrade.

Wonder if the best way to leverage our market share is to put one pick on each favorite (with a coin toss for the toss-up games). . . .

72% joking.

Papelbon's Poutine · Aug 30, 2015

How many different picks are we making? Are we doubling down on any of is it just too up in the air this week?

tonyandpals · Aug 30, 2015

Papelbon's Poutine said:
How many different picks are we making? Are we doubling down on any of is it just too up in the air this week?

In the past we let everyone cast their votes. if 40% picked team A, 40% picked team B,15% picked team C and the last 5% were a mishmash, we would have thrown out the 15% vote and split our picks across the two 40%ers.

I'm not saying that's how we have to do it this year. I am open to ideas, but it seemed to work the best. In a common week we could have a 70/30 split between 2 teams. In that case, 70% of our picks would go one way, 30% the other.

mauf · Aug 30, 2015

Patriots (PIT +230)
Cowboys (NYG +190)

There are several slightly less strong favorites (DEN, SF, CAR, SEA, GB). If you've got two or more entries, it's worth rolling the dice on one of those for at least one of those entries, to position yourself to benefit if one of the two big favorites loses.

edmunddantes · Aug 30, 2015

I'd stay away from Pats.

If no Brady, no telling with Jimmy G.

If Brady, classic he'll be too hyped up and overthrowing for a good part of game, and it might be too long before he settled into his normal rhythm.

j44thor · Aug 31, 2015

tims4wins said:
Random thought of the day: I think Houston is a playoff team this year, but not sure I quite like them enough to take them vs. KC in week 1. That may be a decent pick though.

HOU is currently favored by 1.5 pts which is the lowest favorite for week 1. I would stay far, far away from that game.
They are going to struggle mightily against that KC D.

glennhoffmania · Aug 31, 2015

chief1 said:
Atlanta killed me last year. Could never get it right with them, but it seems they are a much better home team. Suppose you could say that about most if not all NFL teams, but I think more so with them. Would be curios to know what the home/road splits were.

Atlanta's OL and running game sound like they're going to be atrocious. Ryan may get killed. I would not be in favor of taking them against Philly, even at home.

tonyandpals · Aug 31, 2015

maufman said:
Patriots (PIT +230)
Cowboys (NYG +190)

There are several slightly less strong favorites (DEN, SF, CAR, SEA, GB). If you've got two or more entries, it's worth rolling the dice on one of those for at least one of those entries, to position yourself to benefit if one of the two big favorites loses.

How would you break up 17 picks in that scenrio? Split them 60/40?

FL4WL3SS · Aug 31, 2015

Can we please at least split up our picks this year instead of putting all of our eggs in one basket like we did last year?

tonyandpals · Aug 31, 2015

FL4WL3SS said:
Can we please at least split up our picks this year instead of putting all of our eggs in one basket like we did last year?

Give us an example of your week 1 split. I think it was rare for us to be 100% behind any team last year. Unless I am missing something...

dynomite · Aug 31, 2015

edmunddantes said:
If Brady, classic he'll be too hyped up and overthrowing for a good part of game, and it might be too long before he settled into his normal rhythm.

I don't think I understand this. When have the Patriots lost a game because Brady was too "hyped up"?

If Brady plays Week 1 aren't the Pats one of the safest bets on the board, playing a Steelers team with a bad defense and without Bell, Bryant or Pouncey?

Edited to add Pouncey, who could be the biggest absence of all.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Aug 31, 2015

FL4WL3SS said:
Can we please at least split up our picks this year instead of putting all of our eggs in one basket like we did last year?

With respect to last year, I went back and looked it up.

In week 1, our voting percentages came down to: Philly with 46% of the votes (46% of our 8 entries is 4 picks); Chicago w/ 35% (3 picks); and Pitt (8.93%) getting the last pick over NYJ (8.04%) and DET (1.79%).

Near as I can tell, last year we lost our eight picks this way: 3 on CHI in week 1; one on TN and one on SF (?!?) in week 2; one on PIT in week 4 (when PIT had that meltdown versus TB); and the rest in week 6 with SEA and CIN (Cincy being the epic tie game against CAR).

In retrospect, it seems like the hardest part to swallow was losing 4 of our 8 picks on CHI and TN, who won 7 games between them.

I agree we need to diversify. if we have 20 picks, and since it's really hard to tell in Week 1 who is going to suck, it seems to me that we should pick at least 6 different games. Maybe more.

tonyandpals · Aug 31, 2015

What's the hope with the 6 games? That you come out 3-3 or 4-2 at least? Seems like going 4-2 or 5-1 on a week like this will be tough.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Aug 31, 2015

tonyandpals said:
What's the hope with the 6 games? That you come out 3-3 or 4-2 at least? Seems like going 4-2 or 5-1 on a week like this will be tough.

My thinking is to try to minimize the impact of misidentifying how good/bad teams are until we have more information - i.e., avoid the Bears scenario that hit us last year.

But maybe I'm wrong about this. Interested in hearing what other people have to say about how many games we should pick.

glennhoffmania · Aug 31, 2015

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
My thinking is to try to minimize the impact of misidentifying how good/bad teams are until we have more information - i.e., avoid the Bears scenario that hit us last year.

But maybe I'm wrong about this. Interested in hearing what other people have to say about how many games we should pick.

Agreed. Especially in week 1, and with a week as tough as this one, the risk should be spread around a little bit.

FL4WL3SS · Aug 31, 2015

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
My thinking is to try to minimize the impact of misidentifying how good/bad teams are until we have more information - i.e., avoid the Bears scenario that hit us last year.

But maybe I'm wrong about this. Interested in hearing what other people have to say about how many games we should pick.

Yes, this was my thinking.

Let's not bet the house on a team like Chicago like we did last year until we have more information.

SoSH Survivor Pool - Week 1 Discussion

PN23's replacement

Member

Homeland Security

Member

PN23's replacement

Member

Member

Well-Known Member

PN23's replacement

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Member

Member

meat puppet

PN23's replacement

Member

Mai Tais for everyone!

PN23's replacement

He'll cry if he wants to...

PN23's replacement

He'll cry if he wants to...

posts way less than 18% useful shit

posts way less than 18% useful shit

meat puppet

Member

Well-Known Member

posts way less than 18% useful shit

PN23's replacement

New Member

Well-Known Member

Deflatigator

tolerates intolerance

Member

PN23's replacement

Homeland Security

Well-Known Member

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers

Member

Member

meat puppet

Well-Known Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

meat puppet

Member