Sox depth - what is next?

[smastroyin]

I will admit that I am one of the people a little bit skeptical about signing both Ramirez and Sandoval.  Honest opinion is that I wasn't high on Sandoval in a vacuum, signing him after signing Ramirez seems to create some surplus though.  Something will have to be done with that surplus.
 
Looking at organizational depth, understanding that players appear redundantly.
 
Catcher:  Vazquez, Butler(?), Swihart.  This looks OK if you are willing to live with not much offense while you wait to see what Swihart has.  I presume however they will find a veteran instead of Butler.
 
First Base:  Napoli, Craig, Sandoval, Lavarnway, Shaw.  I think this is the end of the line for Lavarnway.  He has no options and they don't seem to like him as a catcher.  Shaw got added to the 40 man and has 3 options.  Not sure what they are going to do with Allen Craig, seems like a flip candidate now that they can cover 1B with Sandoval in an emergency.  
 
Second base.  Pedroia, Betts, Holt, Weeks..  The real two person log jam.  Pedroia isn't going anywhere, signing all of these other guys probably limits where Mookie can end up.  It will be interesting.  Weeks and Holt will probably compete for utility dude. 
 
Third base.  Sandoval, Ramirez/Bogaerts, Holt, Francisco, Middlebrooks, Cecchini, Shaw.  Hanley may not be an option to play 3B but if he's at SS then Xander needs to go somewhere, etc.  Francisco is a JAG.  WMB looks gone, and this also looks like they will pass on Cecchini.  
 
Shortstop.  Bogaerts/Ramirez, Holt, Marrero.  I assume that plan A is to let Bogaerts develop, but after the Sandoval signing it's really hard to figure out what they want to do with Ramirez.  So have they now given up on Bogaerts as SS?  I am assuming these signings mean they don't see Mookie on the left side of the infield at all.
 
Left Field.  Cespedes, Bogaerts/Ramirez, Craig, Nava, Brentz, Cecchini.  Putting Xander/Ramirez here only as a total guess of how they might be able to get all of these guys in the lineup.  Cecchini as well but now they seem pretty well covered so I expect he'll be playing 3B in Pawtucket until he builds up trade value (or be traded sooner than that).  Brentz has options.  Still, seems like one or both of Craig or Cespedes has to go and Nava's days are numbered.  Betts could also play here but there is a lot of depth, not sure this is where he will find at bats.
 
Center Field.  Castillo, Betts, Bradley.  I can't imagine Bradley being on next year's 25 man given all of the other players they will have to keep, but he does have options and maybe like Cecchini will go to Pawtucket to build up some trade value or get more experience in RF.   
 
Right Field.  Victorino, Craig, Betts, Bradley, Nava.  I'm writing off completely the idea of Ramirez or Bogaerts ending up in RF.  I don't like the idea of hobbled Allen Craig out there.  It will take something surprising like Victorino retiring for Nava to keep a job on this team I think (or a mega trade that sees a bunch of other OF go.)
 
DH.  Ortiz.  Obviously they can fill in this space as needed as well with all of the other guys, but even given his age, I would put even odds on Ortiz being the Sox best hitter (not offensive player, hitter) next year, so you can't just push him out.
 
The Sox have an obvious need at starting pitcher, probably need some bullpen help.  
 
Obviously there is a long way to go in the off-season and the team will not keep all of these players.  The most likely moves to me seem to be (in order of likelihood).
 
- Release/trade Lavarnway.  Out of options, hasn't shown much, Sox don't seem to like his catching skills so that's out.
- Option Bradley and Cecchini.  No room on the 25 man.
- Release/trade WMB.  Assume someone out there still values him for something.
- Trade Cespedes.  Unless they are giving up on Xander as a SS (which would seem like a dumb play given that Hanley isn't a great defensive SS) they need to find a place for Hanley to play.  But, this might be hard as they will want some value here.  
- Release/trade Craig.  Contract will make it harder to do, but unless he has a huge health upgrade I don't know how they will really use him.
- Release/trade Nava.  Easy to do, not sure they will get much, will wait until they fail to trade Craig and Cespedes though, I think.  If they both go, he may keep a place.  He has no options.
 
That would change the depth to:
 
SS:  Bogaerts, Holt  (fill in), Ramirez (longer term injury), Marrero (sitting in Pawtucket)
3B:  Sandoval, Holt (fill in), Bogaerts/Ramirez (longer term injury), Cecchini
LF:  Ramirez, Nava (fill in/injury), Brentz (second injury)
CF:  Castillo, Betts, Bradley (injury)
RF:  Victorino, Betts, Bradley (injury)
 
This still creates the problem of how to deal with getting Betts enough PA.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I think Betts will be on the team, probably in RF and leading off. (Who else on the roster is as good a fit in the leadoff spot?)

Victorino, if he's even here and healthy, will be an OF backup.

Craig is a good bet to be optioned (if not claimed off optional assignment waivers).

I would not entirely rule out a blockbuster trade involving Bogaerts+ for a front line starter.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

The one thing I can't believe they will do is keep Betts on the ML roster in a part-time role after playing very solidly in the majors last year. He will either
 
1) Be the starting RF (or CF if they flip him and Castillo)
2) Be traded
3) Start the year in Pawtucket.
 
I think (1) is far more likely than either of the others, though the events of the past 24 hours would seem to make (2) considerably more likely.
 
But overall, I think the question is more how they find playing time for Victorino than for Betts.

 

[Brianish]

The one thing I can't believe they will do is keep Betts on the ML roster in a part-time role after playing very solidly in the majors last year. He will either
 
1) Be the starting RF (or CF if they flip him and Castillo)
2) Be traded
3) Start the year in Pawtucket.
 
I think (1) is far more likely than either of the others, though the events of the past 24 hours would seem to make (2) considerably more likely.
 
But overall, I think the question is more how they find playing time for Victorino than for Betts.

 
Yeah I think this is spot on. I also think Cespedes is going bye-bye for pitching. A part of me wonders if we don't send Nap somewhere and put Allen Craig at 1b. They're both injury risks, but Craig offers at least some positional flexibility. The obvious downside is that Craig costs money after this year, so it's pretty unlikely unless someone will overpay for Nap. 

 

[grimshaw]

I'm going to assume Napoli and Cespedes are traded, Bradley is in AAA or gone, and Nava is at best a 5th OF.  Right handed power is a premium.  Heyward fetched a nice prize, so Cespedes should get something ok (power arm in BP or something).  The team has amazing positional flexibility (sadly better if Napoli is moved).
 
1B - Craig is inexplicably on the team at the moment.  He could platoon with Francisco until he plays himself out of the lineup.
2B - Pedey
SS - Bogaerts or bust.  I'm thinking he's a future LF though or fills in at 3B when Sandoval wins a hotdog eating contest.
3B - Sandoval.  No other reason to play anyone else there.  They need the glove to make up for SS.
LF - Betts  Can fill in at all three spots but can be a luxury in LF where is arm is suited and his range should be great.
CF - Castillo
RF is my biggest question mark, as they are not known to punt defense there.
I'm thinking the best overall defenders for RF in order are Victorino, Castillo, Betts, Hanley/Craig (at least at first).  I would spend most of the preseason trying to squeeze Hanley into RF.  He has speed and a decent arm.  Obviously everything else is rough.
So I'll pencil in Hanley here
C - Vasquez They need a marginal guy as a back up.  They don't even need a good defensive one.  Butler is a so so placeholder who doesn't need to hit either.  He's worked with all the AAA guys so that counts for something.
DH - Papi
 
Victorino and Holt can be the supersubs.  Vic isn't really in a bargaining position to protest being a bench guy.  He could also start the season on the DL which could buy Nava some time.
 
One other note.  I love that the Red Sox are breaking the "creatures of habit" mold by emphasizing positional flexibility in the minors.  Guys know they are blocked barring injuries so they are strongly encouraged to try new positions.

 

[phenweigh]

1B - Craig is inexplicably on the team at the moment.  He could platoon with Francisco until he plays himself out of the lineup.

I'm not at all sure how the roster crunch will be sorted out with the additions of Sandoval and Ramirez, but I'm pretty confident Francisco will not be on the Red Sox.

 

[smastroyin]

I listed Betts second because I assume he will play both positions.  Certainly there is no reason to let Victorino play the weak side of his platoon regularly.  However, the question of naming the starter I think is a little more in play that you guys are implying.  If Victorino is healthy I don't see Farrell demoting him to the bench.  For one, there are all of the standard veteran reasons.  For two, excepting JBJ who looks to be in Pawtucket, there is no doubt that a healthy Victorino is the Red Sox best defensive RF.  He may also be their best defensive CF.  Last, of the guys that won't be here in 2016, Victorino has the most trade value after Cespedes, but he's going to need to play for the Sox to take advantage of that, I think.  I guess maybe someone looking for a RF might take the chance themselves before the season starts.  But anyway, assuming he is still here, and he is healthy, I would be more inclined to making Castillo the odd man out to start the season.
 
But even these questions assuming that 3 OF are already gone (Cespedes, Craig, Bradley) or that 2 of them and Xander (with Ramirez taking SS) is gone.  I personally wouldn't trade Xander for anyone but guys who are really not available (Trout, Kershaw, etc.) but who knows, maybe someone surprising comes asking.
 
The plan since the trade deadline seems to have been stockpile and sort.  It's a good plan if you are able to accumulate information and also get some incremental gains from re-distribution.  Of course so far it hasn't been working out too well (so far being Allen Craig sucking, there is a lot more information to come).

 

[grimshaw]

I'm not at all sure how the roster crunch will be sorted out with the additions of Sandoval and Ramirez, but I'm pretty confident Francisco will not be on the Red Sox.

Why not?  He made $1,000,000 last year and murders right handed pitching.  Could be our 2013 Carp.
 
Edit: Fixed salary.  On a roll with mistakes this morning.

 

[Otis Foster]

 Smastroyin, assuming he's not a total bust, I can't see leaving Castillo on the bench, esp. after the dollars they threw at him. It would be a horrendous pr flap. IMO, he has to play his way out of the starting lineup for that to happen.

 

[Cumberland Blues]

Why not? He made $100,000 last year and murders right handed pitching. Could be our 2013 Carp.

 
 
No, Francisco  made 1.35M last year, is arb eligible and entirely fungible.  They need two roster spots for Hanley & Panda - Francisco DFA is almost certainly one of them.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Why not?  He made $100,000 last year and murders right handed pitching.  Could be our 2013 Carp.

 
I don't see how we'll have roster room for a player who's only useful at the corner IF positions and is a 100% platoon guy.

 

[sackamano]

No one in MLB makes $100,000. Francisco made $1,350,000 last year.

 

[phenweigh]

 
 
No, Francisco  made 1.35M last year, is arb eligible and entirely fungible.  They need two roster spots for Hanley & Panda - Francisco DFA is almost certainly one of them.

This.  And try making a sensible 25 man roster with Francisco on it.
 
Edit: grammar and add in what Savin said.

 

[jasail]

I'm guessing Cespedes is traded. Once that happens the rest shakes out pretty easily:
 
13 players:
 
Ramirez (LF) - Betts (CF) - Castillo (RF)
Panda (3B) - Xander (SS) - Pedroia (2B) - Napoli (1B)
Vazquez (C)
Ortiz (DH)
 
Nava (4th OF/1B), Holt (IF/5th OF), Butler (C), Craig (OF/1B), Victorino (DL)
 
That 13th player then comes down to Victorino or Craig
 
If Victorino is healthy, they will find away to make ABs for him, likely by either rotating him through the OF as the 4th OF or moving Mookie down to AAA. However, they would be foolhardy to make a roster move based on the assumption that he's going to make any type of consistent contribution. I'd like to see Craig moved as a throw in, but he could be a useful 25th player to keep around as Vic likely won't be healthy and considering Nap is a FA at the end of this year. 
 
Francisco and Lavarnway get DFA'd. WMB is sent to AAA. Roster crunch solved. 

 

[grimshaw]

Certainly there is no reason to let Victorino play the weak side of his platoon regularly.  However, the question of naming the starter I think is a little more in play that you guys are implying.  If Victorino is healthy I don't see Farrell demoting him to the bench.  For one, there are all of the standard veteran reasons.  For two, excepting JBJ who looks to be in Pawtucket, there is no doubt that a healthy Victorino is the Red Sox best defensive RF.  He may also be their best defensive CF.  Last, of the guys that won't be here in 2016, Victorino has the most trade value after Cespedes, but he's going to need to play for the Sox to take advantage of that, I think.  I guess maybe someone looking for a RF might take the chance themselves before the season starts.  But anyway, assuming he is still here, and he is healthy, I would be more inclined to making Castillo the odd man out to start the season.
 

NM

 

[sackamano]

Castillo doesn't bat left-handed.

 

[syoo8]

I don't see a reason to waste a parts of a prime year of Castillo in AAA.  Especially with the lack of lefties in the lineup.

 
Castillo is a RH hitter, BTW.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I think Cespedes and one other OF is getting traded(either Craig or Victorino) with the Sox paying some of that player's salary.
 
Here is your opening day starting 9:
C-Vazquez
1B-Napoli
2B-Pedroia
SS-Bogaerts
3B-Sandoval
LF-Ramirez
CF-Castillo
RF-Betts
DH-Ortiz

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Ramirez (LF) - Betts (CF) - Castillo (RF)

 
I think I made this argument already in one of the Hanley threads, but if those three guys are our OF's, wouldn't it make most sense to deploy them Betts-Castillo-Ramirez? Neither Betts nor Ramirez is an OF by trade, though Betts has a bit more experience there. They both have good foot speed and should be OK with covering Fenway's RF from a range POV. Betts is faster at this stage of their careers, but I doubt it's a huge difference. And both fields have tricky aspects. The major difference between Betts and Ramirez that's relevant to this decision is that Ramirez has a pretty strong arm, and by all accounts, Betts doesn't.

 

[soxfan121]

I do not understand why Victorino is being factored in as anything other than a 60-man DL, collect-a-paycheck way. Maybe they can dump him by paying most his salary for a PTBNL. 

 

[grimshaw]

 
 
No, Francisco  made 1.35M last year, is arb eligible and entirely fungible.  They need two roster spots for Hanley & Panda - Francisco DFA is almost certainly one of them.

Could be Lavarnway Butler, Weeks or Britton first but we'll see.  They need to skimp on payroll somewhere to pony up on Lester/remaining free agents or acquisitions.

 

[inter tatters]

I wrote this in another forum, but here's my best guess of the starting line-up on opening day - feel free to flip 4/5/6 dependant on the handedness of the opposing pitcher and Castillo/Betts' positions if you don't trust Mookie's arm...
 
RF Betts
2B Pedroia
DH Ortiz
LF Ramirez
1B Napoli
3B Sandoval
SS Bogaerts
CF Castillo
C Vasquez
 
Bench - Victorino CF/RF, whoever's left of Craig/Nava LF/1B, Holt utility IF, AN Other (Butler?) C
 
Cespedes traded, one of Nava and Craig also gone.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

 
I think I made this argument already in one of the Hanley threads, but if those three guys are our OF's, wouldn't it make most sense to deploy them Betts-Castillo-Ramirez? Neither Betts nor Ramirez is an OF by trade, though Betts has a bit more experience there. They both have good foot speed and should be OK with covering Fenway's RF from a range POV. Betts is faster at this stage of their careers, but I doubt it's a huge difference. And both fields have tricky aspects. The major difference between Betts and Ramirez that's relevant to this decision is that Ramirez has a pretty strong arm, and by all accounts, Betts doesn't.

My guess is they ask Hanley which one he'd prefer.  He's most likely going to say LF because it's a bit easier and you get to play the Monster (which would be a blast).  And as someone pointed out, he's probably aware of the long line of great Boston LFs and would love to join the pantheon of LFs.

 

[jasail]

 
I think I made this argument already in one of the Hanley threads, but if those three guys are our OF's, wouldn't it make most sense to deploy them Betts-Castillo-Ramirez? Neither Betts nor Ramirez is an OF by trade, though Betts has a bit more experience there. They both have good foot speed and should be OK with covering Fenway's RF from a range POV. Betts is faster at this stage of their careers, but I doubt it's a huge difference. And both fields have tricky aspects. The major difference between Betts and Ramirez that's relevant to this decision is that Ramirez has a pretty strong arm, and by all accounts, Betts doesn't.

My reasons for preferring Ramirez in LF is all very speculative (obviously). First, my gut tells me he's the lesser of the 3 OFers in terms of defense and therefore should be in LF. Second, he's here for his bat and by limiting the ground he has to cover, he may see improved health and his bat will stay in the lineup. So for these reasons I put him in LF. Then I put Castillo in RF because of his speed, his reads and his arm. I don't think Betts profiles all that well in RF b/c his arm is by far his worst defensive asset. This leaves Betts in CF where I think he profiles the best because he has the speed to play the position and having a limited arm there has never been a problem for the Sox. 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

My guess is they ask Hanley which one he'd prefer.  He's most likely going to say LF because it's a bit easier and you get to play the Monster (which would be a blast).  And as someone pointed out, he's probably aware of the long line of great Boston LFs and would love to join the pantheon of LFs.

 
Yeah, that makes sense. I guess there's also the fact that he's been a left-side defender his whole career and there would probably be more of a comfort level just moving back a hundred feet or so rather than playing on the other side of the field. If Betts' arm is a concern I suppose they could put him in center and Castillo in right as some (including jasail) are suggesting.
 
Any way you slice it, it will be a speedy (albeit not very experienced) outfield.

 

[smastroyin]

I do not understand why Victorino is being factored in as anything other than a 60-man DL, collect-a-paycheck way. Maybe they can dump him by paying most his salary for a PTBNL. 

 
Did you even read my posts?  If you don't agree I'd appreciate more thought than this as a response.  
 
But to answer your question - it's because we don't have perfect information.  We don't know how he will recover from his back surgery but it is unlikely to have him out for the season and last I heard they expected him to be ready for spring training.  If you have other information, please share.  If you are just making a guess, then great.  However, since they opted to have the surgery rather than rest, we can presume there was a problem to be fixed.  I have to assume they would not perform back surgery without having a good idea that they were fixing something.  It is too risky for "oh, maybe this will help."   
 
Beyond that, maybe John Henry made an extra billion last year and just wants to blow money, but I tend to doubt that is actually the case.  So the Red Sox will be looking to find a way to maximize the value of the players that they have, both on the field in 2015, and for the future.  Letting a healthy Victorino languish on the sidelines doesn't seem to accomplish either goal.  

 

[phenweigh]

I'm guessing Cespedes is traded. Once that happens the rest shakes out pretty easily:
 
13 players:
 
Ramirez (LF) - Betts (CF) - Castillo (RF)
Panda (3B) - Xander (SS) - Pedroia (2B) - Napoli (1B)
Vazquez (C)
Ortiz (DH)
 
Nava (4th OF/1B), Holt (IF/5th OF), Butler (C), Craig (OF/1B), Victorino (DL)
 
That 13th player then comes down to Victorino or Craig
 
If Victorino is healthy, they will find away to make ABs for him, likely by either rotating him through the OF as the 4th OF or moving Mookie down to AAA. However, they would be foolhardy to make a roster move based on the assumption that he's going to make any type of consistent contribution. I'd like to see Craig moved as a throw in, but he could be a useful 25th player to keep around as Vic likely won't be healthy and considering Nap is a FA at the end of this year. 
 
Francisco and Lavarnway get DFA'd. WMB is sent to AAA. Roster crunch solved. 

 
I generally agree with your post, but if Victorino is healthy, it doesn't shake out so easily, as moving either he or Craig will not be easy.  I think the best use of Betts and Castillo is in the starting outfield, and I suspect a healthy Victorino starts.  One of Mookie/Rusney getting sent to Pawtucket to start the season is not out of the question, but with Shane coming off surgery maybe he won't be ready in May.  Then what is to be done if he's then ready and both Betts and Castillo are playing well?
 
Another possibility is if Napoli is also moved along with Cespedes for pitching and Hanley plays 1B instead of outfield.  But if Victorino is going to spend most of the season on the DL, then I think the Sox would be a little thin in the outfield.
 
I guess simply put, Victorino and his uncertain health status means any potential roster crunch solution will be at least somewhat difficult.

 

[LahoudOrBillyC]

I am happy with the day's events because (a) the Red Sox have more talent on the team than they had 24 hours ago, and (b) baseball is swimming in cash -- the salaries do not really bother me at this point.  Player payrolls are the lowest they have been (as a percentage of revenue) in 20 years.
 
That said, I hope that the team's calculations involve Betts and Bogaerts starting on Opening Day.  As I have said in other threads, $20M contracts work only if you have low-priced pre-arb players to balance the scales.  They know this.
 
The guy  I would deal is Napoli, who makes a lot more money than Cespedes and breaks the defensive logjam more.   Ramirez or Sandoval might end up at first base.
 
Also: if Victorino is healthy, he is one of their best players.  He was a five-win player in 2013.

 

[Puffy]

 
- Release/trade WMB.  Assume someone out there still values him for something.
 

 
Minor point, but I think they might be better off stashing him in Pawtucket to try to resurrect his offense. Or try him at different positions around the diamond in PAW (1b, 2b, corner of, DH) and keep him around for deep depth or a future trade chip. 

 

[67WasBest]

Even if they trade Victorino, Cespedes, Napoli and Craig, there is enough redundancy built into the lineup to compete.
 
What they now need to do is create a trusted starting staff with that surplus.  I suspect the starting staff will have a number of short term deals, as they seek a bridge to the maturation of the kids.  Guys like Ross, Latos, Iwakuma, Zimmerman, Fister, Smardzija will be their targets.  This will allow them another year to finish off the RHers development, and get the LHers that much closer, while banking additional draft picks

 

[67WasBest]

Also: if Victorino is healthy, he is one of their best players.  He was a five-win player in 2013.

And I assume his surgery relieved the pressure that inhibited him from hitting left handed.  If so, that is another LH bat for the lineup

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

My reasons for preferring Ramirez in LF is all very speculative (obviously). First, my gut tells me he's the lesser of the 3 OFers in terms of defense and therefore should be in LF. Second, he's here for his bat and by limiting the ground he has to cover, he may see improved health and his bat will stay in the lineup. So for these reasons I put him in LF. Then I put Castillo in RF because of his speed, his reads and his arm. I don't think Betts profiles all that well in RF b/c his arm is by far his worst defensive asset. This leaves Betts in CF where I think he profiles the best because he has the speed to play the position and having a limited arm there has never been a problem for the Sox. 

If both guys can play both I'd move them back and forth. In Fenway, Betts in RF, Ramirez in LF. In some place like Yankee Stadium with the spacious LF it might be worth switching them.

 

[smastroyin]

Yeah, I guess they can stash both Cecchini and WMB, I just think they have to make a choice at some point.  And I really want Travis Shaw to get 500+ AAA PAs this year to see if his gains last year have any staying power so I wouldn't displace him too much.  That said, I would buy the argument that giving WMB a shot has more long term upside than figuring out Shaw.
 
As for Craig, I agree that it would be great if he could regain some value by playing in Pawtucket.  I'm just not sure that is really as much as option as it may seem.  I know that from behind our computer screens it is easy to say "he has an option, use it!" but in practice I assume they will not do so without at least talking to the guy.  Maybe he is just as eager to ride the bus again to prove he can get his swing back, but I have to assume he will want a more sure MLB opportunity if he can be accommodated.  I also think his swing is scary bad right now.  Hopefully the Sox know more about that and the chances he gets it back than I do.

 

[YTF]

Everyone is penciling in Bogaerts, but I think he's gone. One of your "untouchables" is no longer needed and sweetens the pot in any potential deal for a pitcher. I think he goes to Philly as the heir apparent to Rollins in a deal for Hamels.
 

 

[C4CRVT]

Call me crazy but I'm expecting a big year from Napoli. I think that the facial surgery is going to lead to more sleep for him which will in turn mean better production. He's also by far and away the best bet on the current roster for being a great 1Bman on this team.
 
In general, I'm all for stashing as many of these guys as possible. I'm fine with dealing Cecchini and Cespedes as parts of a package for SP but keep the rest of the depth. I can't see dealing Victorino because his trade value is probably shit and he's just too good when he's on and there's too much risk that Castillo isn't a legit plus MLB player.
 
I suspect that it probably won't happen but I'd stash Craig in AAA. I know he's an established MLB player but there's a 60%+ chance that he's a waste of a bench spot on the big league team right now and I doubt he's bringing back anything of value. Let him hack at AAA for a few months and see what happens.

 

[Hendu Candu]

And I assume his surgery relieved the pressure that inhibited him from hitting left handed.  If so, that is another LH bat for the lineup

 
I don't think he was ever a lefthanded bat for the lineup -- at least not a helpful one.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'd like to see Craig or Victorino moved along with Cespedes. I know neither has a lot of value right now, but sending them out in a salary dump solves a lot of problems. Victorino frees up more money, but has a significantly higher chance of being a productive player in 2015, plus he offers more versatility. So if I had to choose, I'd say use Cespedes to try and trade for a pitcher (a starter if possible) and get whatever lottery ticket you can for shifting Craig's salary to another team.
 
OF - Ramirez (LF), Castillo (CF), Betts (RF): I think Betts will be less prone to mental gaffes and would rather see him out there, even with a less accurate and weaker arm. Castillo looked great out there in his brief time with the team in 2014 and Hanley's arm may play like the previous Ramirez to roam in the shadow of the Monster. Nava and Victorino provide a ton of depth if Shane is healthy. If he's not, they have Cecchini, Brentz and Bradley in AAA with Henry Ramos in Portland.
 
IF - Napoli (1B), Pedroia (2B), Bogaerts (SS), Sandoval (3B), Vazquez (C): Napoli is still one of the best power hitters on the team and is a plus defender. No reason to move him if the goal is to compete in 2015 (and it certainly looks like that's the plan). He makes the team better and moving him for salary relief makes no sense. The team's payroll will drop below the threshold again in 2016. Swihart, Shaw, Coyle, Middlebrooks and Cecchini are all sitting in Pawtucket in case of injuries, so they have a ton of depth, even if they move some of these guys for pitching.
 
SP - Buccholz, Kelly, de la Rosa, Workman, Ranaudo: Obviously this will change, but that rotation is scary young and terrifyingly inexperienced. They have a ton of depth in that they can replace any of those guys without much of a fall off by calling up Webster, Barnes, Owens, Rodriguez, or Johnson, but the chances that any of those kids are significantly better than the five I have listed in bold are pretty low. So the floor isn't terribly low, but the ceiling is, sadly, not high. They really need to land one of Lester or Scherzer if they want to clearly separate themselves from the rest of the division. If Shields is the best pitcher they can sign, they will probably have to give up a bigger prospect package to compensate. The dream scenario is signing Lester and trading for Latos or Iwakuma or Ross. It's possible, but probably not likely. If they end up with Lester and someone like Fister, they will be in very good shape.
 
RP - Koji, Tazawa, Mujica, Layne, Wright, Wilson: I would really love it if they re-signed Miller, but with the contracts they just gave out to Sandoval and Ramirez, I have a hard time seeing them drop 8-9 million per year on Miller. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I think that ship has sailed, so we're likely looking at going to war with what we have. Webster, Workman, Ranaudo and de la Rosa are all candidates to be bumped to the pen depending on what the team does to fill out the rotation which adds a lot of depth and some intriguing potential for some exciting relievers. Even without any additions, the pen is in good shape.
 
The team has a ton of depth already and plenty of flexibility. Obviously the areas that need the most work are the outfield logjam and the barren rotation. If they can cash Cespedes in for a number 2, they'll be in pretty good shape. I'm confident they can land at least one of Lester, Scherzer, Shields, Santana, Maeda or McCarthy. One of those guys with Fister would be enough to be a contender for the playoffs and, of course, those odds go up if it's Lester or Scherzer.
 
Ben is off to a great start this winter. Hopefully he follows through and we have a World Series contender come March.
 

Everyone is penciling in Bogaerts, but I think he's gone. One of your "untouchables" is no longer needed and sweetens the pot in any potential deal for a pitcher.

 
I don't get why people keep saying things like this. Hanley is a bad defender at short. He's not any kind of long term option so unless you are advocating for Marrero there in 2015, Bogaerts is absolutely needed. He's not going anywhere short of a team that is willing to overpay for him, and after his struggles in 2014, I can't see that happening.

 

[grimshaw]

Everyone is penciling in Bogaerts, but I think he's gone. One of your "untouchables" is no longer needed and sweetens the pot in any potential deal for a pitcher. I think he goes to Philly as the heir apparent to Rollins in a deal for Hamels.
 

Marrero and another good prospect maybe, but they're never going to deal Bogaerts for Hamels.  He just isn't good enough or enough below market value to consider.  Dave Cameron mentioned Strasburg or Chris Sale in his article as hypotheticals.  Ace pitcher types who have a few years of control left.

 

[67WasBest]

 
I don't think he was ever a lefthanded bat for the lineup -- at least not a helpful one.

Valid point, just because he steps in the LH box doesn't make him a contributing LH batter.

 

[67WasBest]

Everyone is penciling in Bogaerts, but I think he's gone. One of your "untouchables" is no longer needed and sweetens the pot in any potential deal for a pitcher. I think he goes to Philly as the heir apparent to Rollins in a deal for Hamels.
 

The ONLY pitcher Bogaerts could be dealt for is Chris Sale, and since that isn't happening, Bogaerts will be at SS next year.
  Sending X for Hamels would be a huge overpay.

 

[smastroyin]

I would hope the Red Sox are not thinking of trading Bogaerts for an expensive vet for the simple reason that it would be overvaluing the short term because of a lousy season.  Maybe they can continually re-stock, but I think the playoffs of the last few years (not just who won in the playoffs, but who got there) should highlight the point that you want to set yourself up for as many bites at the apple as you can, rather than a single larger bite.  Obviously it would be nice if you can have both but I think even then it's pretty clear you need to develop some stars to make it happen.  Stockpiling expensive players in their early 30's isn't going to get it done.

 

[OzSox]

Everyone is penciling in Bogaerts, but I think he's gone. One of your "untouchables" is no longer needed and sweetens the pot in any potential deal for a pitcher. I think he goes to Philly as the heir apparent to Rollins in a deal for Hamels.
 

 
I think Plan A for SP is:
 
1. Sign Lester.
2. Use expendable pieces like Cespedes and one of the young SP (e.g. Workman/Webster/De La Rosa) to acquire a No. 2 starter (Latos/Cueto/Iwakuma etc) if possible.
 
If neither Lester nor Scherzer are signed, that's when Ramirez's positional flexibility, if it can be called that, comes into play. In that case I think they will make a strong push for an ace (Hamels) by including either Bogaerts or Betts (but not both). If it's Bogaerts, Ramirez can play SS in the short term for a year or two until Marrero is ready or another solution is found. If it's Betts, Ramirez could play RF. Then they could either keep Cespedes and try to find a No. 2 starter through other means (Shields?) or still trade Cespedes for pitching and use Victorino/Craig/JBJ/Nava for the other outfield spot with Ramirez and Castillo.

 

[TigerBlood]

Everyone is penciling in Bogaerts, but I think he's gone. One of your "untouchables" is no longer needed and sweetens the pot in any potential deal for a pitcher. I think he goes to Philly as the heir apparent to Rollins in a deal for Hamels.
 

In order to make big Sandoval-and-Ramirez type cannonball splashes, you're gonna depend on a group of players like Bogaerts/Betts/Vasquez be relatively cheap and talented for a while.

 

[asimonetti]

I agree completely with the notion that sleep apnea treatment will improve performance. to what extent remains to be seen, but im sure morning arrivals at the ballpark wont be as difficult with an efficient night's sleep.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I don't get why people keep saying things like this. Hanley is a bad defender at short. He's not any kind of long term option so unless you are advocating for Marrero there in 2015, Bogaerts is absolutely needed. He's not going anywhere short of a team that is willing to overpay for him, and after his struggles in 2014, I can't see that happening.

 
You sorta kinda answered your own question there. Marrero's impending arrival means that Hanley wouldn't have to be a long-term option at short--just a 2015 option while Marrero gets a little more AAA time. Of course this would be a pretty big gamble--maybe Marrero's bat fails to thrive in Pawtucket and they have to scramble for an alternative for 2016--but it's certainly a feasible option, and Bogaerts could potentially fetch a better, younger pitcher than Cespedes or Napoli would.
 
I hope this is not what they do--I would much rather they stick with Bogaerts and put Hanley in left--but I don't think there's any reason to rule it out.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
I think Plan A for SP is:
 
1. Sign Lester.
2. Use expendable pieces like Cespedes and one of the young SP (e.g. Workman/Webster/De La Rosa) to acquire a No. 2 starter (Latos/Cueto/Iwakuma etc) if possible.
 
If neither Lester nor Scherzer are signed, that's when Ramirez's positional flexibility, if it can be called that, comes into play. In that case I think they will make a strong push for an ace (Hamels) by including either Bogaerts or Betts (but not both). If it's Bogaerts, Ramirez can play SS in the short term for a year or two until Marrero is ready or another solution is found. If it's Betts, Ramirez could play RF. Then they could either keep Cespedes and try to find a No. 2 starter through other means (Shields?) or still trade Cespedes for pitching and use Victorino/Craig/JBJ/Nava for the other outfield spot with Ramirez and Castillo.

 
In no world is Cueto a number 2 nor is he only worth Cespedes and one of the pitching prospects. He's a better pitcher than Hamels and even with just one year of control is probably worth more in a trade. Cueto is one of the best pitchers in the game. Lumping him in with the rest of the number 2 guys is sort of silly.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
You sorta kinda answered your own question there. Marrero's impending arrival means that Hanley wouldn't have to be a long-term option at short--just a 2015 option while Marrero gets a little more AAA time. Of course this would be a pretty big gamble--maybe Marrero's bat fails to thrive in Pawtucket and they have to scramble for an alternative for 2016--but it's certainly a feasible option, and Bogaerts could potentially fetch a better, younger pitcher than Cespedes or Napoli would.
 
I hope this is not what they do--I would much rather they stick with Bogaerts and put Hanley in left--but I don't think there's any reason to rule it out.

 
I don't see any way they make a bet on Marrero over Bogaerts right now. Maybe in another year it's feasible but at this point, Marrero needs at least a full year at Pawtucket before they can start making reasonable guesses at his long term value. Even if they think he's a good long term bet right now, moving Bogaerts now still leaves them with a big defensive hole at short in 2015. Sure, Hanley could play there, but given how much they value defense, I doubt they think much of the downgrade from Bogaerts to Hanley in the field option. It's not impossible, but it's a pretty silly suggestion and saying Bogaerts is "no longer needed" is bordering on crazy talk.

 

[YTF]

Fact of the matter is that somebody HAS to go. I don't necessarily want to see Bogaerts go and I'm not really advocating for anything here, but we often talk about "bridge years" for teams, might Hanley be a bridge in '15 to Marrero in '16 and then moved to 1B or OF? I think most of us are still of the mind that the Sox are looking for at least 2 impact pitchers. Both aren't going to come via the FA route. Cespedes has long been thought of as trade bait and more recently Napoli's name has been mentioned here, but time after time, after time we talk about young, cost controlled, MLB ready players being the target of every team. Bogaerts fits that mold.

 

[67WasBest]

 
You sorta kinda answered your own question there. Marrero's impending arrival means that Hanley wouldn't have to be a long-term option at short--just a 2015 option while Marrero gets a little more AAA time. Of course this would be a pretty big gamble--maybe Marrero's bat fails to thrive in Pawtucket and they have to scramble for an alternative for 2016--but it's certainly a feasible option, and Bogaerts could potentially fetch a better, younger pitcher than Cespedes or Napoli would.
 
I hope this is not what they do--I would much rather they stick with Bogaerts and put Hanley in left--but I don't think there's any reason to rule it out.

I agree with this completely
 
There is one scenario however that I believe could result in a Bogaerts deal.  He handled that move to 3B poorly last year, then made statements about seeing himself as the next Derek Jeter,;indicating he sees himself as a SS only.  If the Sox feel he will be petulant when moved off SS, they might as well trade him now and get a fair return.  As you noted, they could play Hanley there for 2015, then move Hanley to 1B in 2016 and backfil with Marrero, or another from outside.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
Even if they think he's a good long term bet right now, moving Bogaerts now still leaves them with a big defensive hole at short in 2015.

 
The Dodgers managed to win 94 games with that particular defensive hole. Saying he's a defensive liability at short is one thing, and true. Saying he's a crippling liability that a contending team can't sustain, even for one year, is another thing, and silly.