Niese is also a leftyHe'd be like a right-handed Miley. If we didn't need Miley, we don't need Niese.
Niese is also a leftyHe'd be like a right-handed Miley. If we didn't need Miley, we don't need Niese.
Even worse--a left handed version.He'd be like a right-handed Miley. If we didn't need Miley, we don't need Niese.
I don't really like Niese that much and wouldn't want him on our roster but there isn't a ton of difference between him and Leake, who will probably get 14-16 mill per through his age 33 year.The Mets would give you Niese for Holt in a cocaine heartbeat. They want out from that contract in the worst way. What would the Sox do with him? They dont need a league average SP making $10M.
You'd have to throw in a mighty good prospect, or quite possibly Bradley if you want Matz.
Reasonable for whom, though? Niese is a league average pitcher and thats not something the Red Sox need right now at a cost of $9.5M.I don't really like Niese that much and think his health is iffy but there isn't a ton of difference between him and Leake, who will probably get 14-16 mill per through his age 33 year.
Comparatively - 3yrs 29.5 for Niese through his age 31 is very reasonable and probably not the type of a contract they would have to eat any money for. Especially since two of those years are team options with 500k buyouts.
He has averaged 2.1 WAR over the past 5 seasons. He had his first poor season last year. If the going rate is 8mil per win, then yes - that is reasonable.Reasonable for whom, though? Niese is a league average pitcher and thats not something the Red Sox need right now at a cost of $9.5M.
Over the last 3 years Niese has been worth a grand total of 2.6 fWAR. If someone could guarantee that his next 3 years would be the same as his last 3, would you pay $29.5M for 2.6 WAR? Leake has been worth 4.4 fWAR over the same time frame. Leake probably wont be worth his next contract, but Niese isnt a good bet to be worth his current one (even if you dont pick up the options, he is still owed $9.5M guaranteed).
I mean, seriously?“We thought we might be able to piece something together with the Red Sox,” said a Marlins official. “With ERod, Mookie Betts, Christian Vazquez, Yoan Moncada and another pitcher I thought we had something that might work.” Why not?
Yeah, holy moly. If you figure that Fernandez is going to be a 5 WAR pitcher for the next three years, that would be worth about 120 million at 8 mil/win, and for ease let's say he gets a round 10 mil per year in arb, so he is delivering 90 million in surplus value over that time. Mookie, as a 3.5 WAR player (conservatively), will cost about 500k for the next two years, then we will assume another 10 mil per year in arb, so 31 million over 5 years of team control from a value of 140 million, or 109 million in surplus value.Not sure where this should go, but...wow. A Marlins official on the Sox trading for Fernandez:
I mean, seriously?
That plan of getting pictures of both Henry and Dombrowski with a roomful of dead hookers looked so good on paper.“We thought we might be able to piece something together with the Red Sox,” said a Marlins official. “With ERod, Mookie Betts, Christian Vazquez, Yoan Moncada and another pitcher I thought we had something that might work.” Why not?
Not sure where this should go, but...wow. A Marlins official on the Sox trading for Fernandez:
“With ERod, Mookie Betts, Christian Vazquez, Yoan Moncada and another pitcher I thought we had something that might work.” Why not?
I mean, seriously?
*cough*It would take one of Bogaerts or Betts, one of Moncada or Devers and then probably at least two more top 10 prospects, at least. So, no thanks.
Do we know Schwarber is still going back to LF? He came up as a catcher, so doesn't it make sense he goes back there? I know they have Montero, but is he really that good?Inciarte has two more years of proven/batting average production, but if Sox could snag Soler for JBJ straight up might make sense for both teams. JBJ moves Heyward over to RF where he belongs and perhaps covers the spots Schwarber can't get to in left center .
Soler has a rocket arm and I think the Cubs are selling low on the bat which explains their trepidation. I'd bet on that offensive package and his contract is pretty ridiculous.
Montero's under contract for two more years at a pretty fair market price. Which I suppose makes him good trade bait, but unless they trade him, he's their #1 catcher through 2017. And these scouting reports suggest that Schwarber is not destined to be a primary catcher in the long term, even if filling in there in a backup role might be useful right now.Do we know Schwarber is still going back to LF? He came up as a catcher, so doesn't it make sense he goes back there? I know they have Montero, but is he really that good?
Yeah, they could sure use a guy like Archer.There was talk during the winter meetings (wish I could cite it, but it was some of the talking heads on MLB Net) of the Cubs and Rays being a good match-up for a trade. Something along the lines of Alex Cobb or Matt Moore to the Cubs for Schwarber plus.
Not sure, who you're listening to, but both Cubs guys, Hollandsworth and Memolo have said Schwarber is almost untouchable. Hollandsworth said the only players they'd consider dealing Schwarber for were basically, Archer, Fernandez, or Gray.There was talk during the winter meetings (wish I could cite it, but it was some of the talking heads on MLB Net) of the Cubs and Rays being a good match-up for a trade. Something along the lines of Alex Cobb or Matt Moore to the Cubs for Schwarber plus.
This is excellent thanks for sharing.interesting and somewhat optimistic piece on Porcello by Jeff Sullivan on FanGraphs...
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-wainwrightization-of-rick-porcello/
The most interesting part of this was primarily addressing the development of Porcello's curveball (as statistically comparable to Wainwright's) rather than the standard line about reverting to reliance on his sinker. So reliance on sinker + better curveball = better results.interesting and somewhat optimistic piece on Porcello by Jeff Sullivan on FanGraphs...
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-wainwrightization-of-rick-porcello/
I don't remember having read anything on that and due to the source (I don't believe Marc Normandin has ever broke anything or even claimed to have connections within the Sox organization, think he is just a Sox fan blogger) I think this is speculation or bad wording by Normandin."It's worth pointing out that former Sox general manager Ben Cherington saw this change in the free agent market coming when Porcello signed a four-year, $82.5 million extension before the 2015 season. The first year didn't pay off, obviously, but there were extenuating circumstances -- such as a now-fired pitching coach deciding Porcello didn't need to rely on the sinker that earned him his extension in the first place -- and there is still plenty of time for the deal to look as prescient as it was intended to."
Has anyone heard that Nieves directed Porcello away from using his sinker? This is the first mention I've seen of it. Nieves was fired in early May, Porcello pitched pretty poorly through July, then returned in late August with a better performance over his last 8 starts.
Here is the link to the article:
http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/2/4/10915702/red-sox-rotation-joe-kelly-ian-kennedy-royals
They signed Chris Young to be "Castillo JBJ insurance". They don't have the roster space to add Fowler at this point.Rosenthal talking about the O's strategy floated them getting Fowler for 2 yrs 25 after Gallardo . Duq has a stated preference to prefer no opt outs.
I may give him that deal with an opt out after the 1rst year. Nice Castillo JBJ insurance IMHO. The draft pick is obviously the big downside but I really want another competent bat and Fowler at that price seems just right...
Why would we sacrifice a draft pick to -- maybe -- slightly upgrade on Chris Young as our 4th OF? I assume you would be just eating Young's contract before it begins, since Fowler hits lefties a lot better than he does righties. And if you figure you want to keep both of them, and Holt, and a backup catcher, then you don't have room for Travis Shaw.Rosenthal talking about the O's strategy floated them getting Fowler for 2 yrs 25 after Gallardo . Duq has a stated preference to prefer no opt outs.
I may give him that deal with an opt out after the 1rst year. Nice Castillo JBJ insurance IMHO. The draft pick is obviously the big downside but I really want another competent bat and Fowler at that price seems just right...
The reason I give up the draft pick is because Fowler is a more well rounded version of Young( see OBP prowess and it's a hedge against having to overpay from a top heavy system in season if Bradley and Castillo force the Red Sox to play their bench depth more see the last couple years with Nava, Vic, Castillo .)Why would we sacrifice a draft pick to -- maybe -- slightly upgrade on Chris Young as our 4th OF? I assume you would be just eating Young's contract before it begins, since Fowler hits lefties a lot better than he does righties. And if you figure you want to keep both of them, and Holt, and a backup catcher, then you don't have room for Travis Shaw.
Or, the Sox expect Young and/or Holt can hit enough at the bottom of the order to hedge the inherent offensive risk of Castillo and/or Bradley not taking the next step forward next season, for a mere $7MM (on top of the $11MM that Betts, Bradley, and Castillo are due).If the Sox were as worried about Castillo as I think they should be they would have made a bigger move already. They're rolling the dice, perhaps thinking they'll make an in-season trade if he doesn't hit.
If Shaw starts in Pawtucket, then the 1B depth chart is Hanley and Brock Holt (who is also our backup 2B, SS, and 3B).The reason I give up the draft pick is because Fowler is a more well rounded version of Young( see OBP prowess and it's a hedge against having to overpay from a top heavy system in season if Bradley and Castillo force the Red Sox to play their bench depth more see the last couple years with Nava, Vic, Castillo .)
Shaw starting in Pawtucket is really not objectionable IMHO. Again the price floated by Rosenthal with an opt out would essentially be a more complicated more player friendly version of the pillow contract .
Basically, the interest boils down to Fowler gets on base despite his reverse splits. Castillo and Bradley are ?? in terms of OBP.
Edit:
The draft pick is obviously the killer of value. Just think young is more strict platoon bat than insurance.
Giving up the 2016 12th pick would be terrible, considering how weak the farm looks behind the top 4 prospects, who all finished 2015 in A-ball.If Shaw starts in Pawtucket, then the 1B depth chart is Hanley and Brock Holt (who is also our backup 2B, SS, and 3B).
OF depth is a concern. I don't want Young getting 500 AB. But it's a concern I think they have to address at the AAA level -- they have Boesch, but hopefully they can find someone even a little better as rosters shake out. The major league roster is pretty tightly built.
And while Fowler is a better player than Young, given their apparent confidence in Castillo and Bradley, I would have been horrified if they'd given up a draft pick for that marginal improvement.
Glancing over the list of possible half-year rentals, one name jumps out as an obvious, if possibly expensive, candidate should either Castillo or Bradley falter. I agree with the larger point that it isn't worth making a move until they at least have a better idea of how those two will perform, though.If the Sox were as worried about Castillo as I think they should be they would have made a bigger move already. They're rolling the dice, perhaps thinking they'll make an in-season trade if he doesn't hit.
He's played 19 games above Lowell. Saying he's likely only a year away is a tad aggressive don't you think?I think another factor here is that Benintendi is likely only a year away
He totally dominated both levels he played at, and he'll turn 22 this year and if all goes well, presumably finish the year in Portland. I would be surprised if he doesn't get his first MLB action in 2017, though whether that's a substantial role or a September callup is another question.He's played 19 games above Lowell. Saying he's likely only a year away is a tad aggressive don't you think?
The only way this is true is if "that, basically" is your way of saying "something else entirely."Well Mookie Betts did that, basically, at an even younger age. He was in Lowell his whole age 19 season in 2012 and in Boston in June 2014.
There is an enormous difference between being a year away and a September callup the following season.He totally dominated both levels he played at, and he'll turn 22 this year and if all goes well, presumably finish the year in Portland. I would be surprised if he doesn't get his first MLB action in 2017, though whether that's a substantial role or a September callup is another question.
One guy doing something that looks kinda like it if you squint just right and the light aint good does not mean it is remotely likely that a different guy with less pro experience is gonna do it and it sure as shit doesn't mean he's going to have one scintilla of an iota on roster decisions made for 2016. Now maybe he starts in Salem, but with 19 games in Greenville, that's pretty aggressive, and maybe he kicks ass and goes to Portland halfway though the season and kicks ass there then maybe he's a third of fourth thought for a mid 2017 promotion pending a kickass season in Pawtucket.No Ras. Being in Lowell in year X and in Boston in year X+2 is exactly what Mookie did and exactly what Dewey's Cannon proposed for Benintendi. The only reason I said "basically" was because Betts didn't start the year in Boston. I don't think it's at all far-fetched that he could be in Boston at the same pace unless he is blocked.
Of course it's far fetched. List the number of players who have done it. List the number who haven't. Count both lists. Do the math. You're gonna get a number that's greater than zero and a hell of a lot less than likely.No Ras. Being in Lowell in year X and in Boston in year X+2 is exactly what Mookie did and exactly what Dewey's Cannon proposed for Benintendi. The only reason I said "basically" was because Betts didn't start the year in Boston. I don't think it's at all far-fetched that he could be in Boston at the same pace unless he is blocked.
Assuming we can agree that "done it" means "made the majors in their second full year after being drafted," you still have to define your denominator. All draftees? 21-year-old draftees? 21-year-old draftees who dominated the lower minors in their first half-season? 21-year-old draftees who were named by Baseball America as closest to making the majors in their draft class?Of course it's far fetched. List the number of players who have done it. List the number who haven't. Count both lists. Do the math. You're gonna get a number that's greater than zero and a hell of a lot less than likely.
I don't know how you define "likely" but it has to be significantly more than a 50% probability and I'm not sure there is a denominator you can find that makes it true.Assuming we can agree that "done it" means "made the majors in their second full year after being drafted," you still have to define your denominator. All draftees? 21-year-old draftees? 21-year-old draftees who dominated the lower minors in their first half-season? 21-year-old draftees who were named by Baseball America as closest to making the majors in their draft class?
If that's the group we're comparing to, then Benintendi has a much better than 50/50 chance of making the majors by 2017, in fact a 75% chance. Unless I'm missing somebody, here are all the top-10 picks who were college position players between 2004 and 2013:What I had in mind was top ten picks that went to college and weren't pitchers which I thought was pretty generous.
Well don't I look like an ass? 'Sokay, when I don't do the research myself, I deserve to.If that's the group we're comparing to, then Benintendi has a much better than 50/50 chance of making the majors by 2017, in fact a 75% chance. Unless I'm missing somebody, here are all the top-10 picks who were college position players between 2004 and 2013:
Made the majors by second full year in pros
Kris Bryant
Mike Zunino
Anthony Rendon
Bryce Harper
Dustin Ackley
Pedro Alvarez
Buster Posey
Yonder Alonso
Gordon Beckham
Jason Castro
Matt Wieters
Matt LaPorta
Evan Longoria
Alex Gordon
Jeff Clement
Ryan Zimmerman
Ryan Braun
Troy Tulowitzki
Took longer than that, or haven't made it yet
Colin Moran
Cory Spangenberg
Christian Colon
Michael Choice
Tony Sanchez
Drew Stubbs
In fact, looking at these lists, it almost seems like we can say that if Benintendi is going to have any kind of substantial ML career at all, he'll probably make the big club by 2017.