Sunshine, Lollipops and Rainbows: What's Gone Right

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

The Sox are in first place, but you might not know it if talk radio or even a majority of SoSH threads are your main source of news/info on the team. Yes, third base is a collapsing supernova, but otherwise I rebuke the easy path of negativity, instead choosing to highlight the positive developments so far this year:

1. Chris Sale. Duh. It's nice to have that Pedro-like buzz the day of his starts, innit?
   
2. Craig Kimbrel. Is Eckersley's 1990 season the most dominant year by a closer? Could Kimbrel approach that?
3. Moreland/Travis at 1B: Moreland alone is cause for rejoice, but Travis has looked like a professional hitter during his brief time up so far.
4. Joe Kelly as a legitimate bullpen arm? Granted, it's Joe Kelly, and he's had his shaky moments, but it sure seems like the 'pen suits him.
5. Xander being Xander. Despite efforts by some to downplay his offensive contributions, he's been steady and productive at the plate, while his fielding has continued its upward trajectory.
6. Benintendi bouncing back from the typical rookie slump, he's having a great June so far.
7. Hat tip to Brian Johnson's unbelievable spot start. Things like that are why watching baseball is fun.

C'mon, people, let's all feel good about ourselves in here. Comment on the above or add your own additional observations.

 

[RIrooter09]

Mookie continuing to be one of the better OF's in baseball. Serious regression compared to last year could have sunk this team with Ortiz gone.

 

[Ale Xander]

5-1 in extra inning games is impressive, granted that 2 of them are vs. the Phils at Fenway.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Just going to name a few you didn't list.

Matt Barnes. He was pretty bad his last game but his prior 14 games: 1.72 era, 15.2ip, 14h, 3er, 2bb/25k, .237/.262/.356 on an absurd .412 BAbip.

JBJ. He started the year pretty bad but has been on fire since. We are at the point where it's safe to assume JBJ is an .800+ OPS player. His last 32 games: .315/.424/.595, .341 BAbip, 20bb/22k in 132 PA. He has his K rate down to 20.4% for the year, down from 22.5% last year, while his BB rate is 12.0%, last year it was 9.9%.

Rafael Devers and Michael Chavis: Probably not what you intended, but given their problems at 3b, it helps they are doing well. Devers' in game power has arrived and he should be in Pawtucket sometime soon. Chavis had an injury plagued season last year but has been nothing short of a monster this season. Although it's worth noting he is mired in a 0/17 slump with 1bb/10k. Still, in 250 PA this year, his K/BB rates are 22.8%/7.6% compared to 23.9/7.1% last season. Worth noting, he started 2016 with 10 strikeouts in his first 110 PA. In his last 229, he had 71. This year, the strikeouts are more spread out.

 

[drbretto]

I feel like this is a team that's finally finding their groove. I'm expecting them to continue to trend upwards and be right where we expected them to be.

It's a really fun team to watch. That outfield is easy to root for, and we're getting treated to some really great defense. The kids are alright, and we get to watch them do their thing for years. I'm really surprised the atmosphere isn't peppier over it. This is a really good team.

 

[drbretto]

5-1 in extra inning games is impressive, granted that 2 of them are vs. the Phils at Fenway.

Bad teams beat good teams like 30% of the time, don't they? Just because the Phillies are the bottom of the barrel doesn't mean that every game against them should be a complete blowout. That's just not how baseball works.

Sox went 3-1 in that series, and I might need to double check my math, but that's pretty good.

 

[joe dokes]

Pomeranz allowing more than 2ER only 3 times in 13 starts. 110ERA+ He has been mostly dependable.
IF all else had gone roughly according to plan and IF he had turned out to be only their 5th best starter (as was the plan), the team would be really rolling.

 

[phenweigh]

Deven Marrero: Has righted the ship at 3B from a defensive standpoint and had a fine game at the plate yesterday.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Pomeranz allowing more than 2ER only 3 times in 13 starts. 110ERA+ He has been mostly dependable.
IF all else had gone roughly according to plan and IF he had turned out to be only their 5th best starter (as was the plan), the team would be really rolling.

On the other hand, he is killing our bullpen in the process. He is averaging barely over 5 innings a start and failed to reach 5ip in 5 of his 13 starts. He has only reached 6 ip in 5 of his 13 starts. One of those 5 was for 6.1, another for 7. He's kind of a mixed bag. It's hard to give up much more than 2er when you are barely going 5. Although the 3 starts he did give up more than 2 er were all under 5 IP (4.1, 4, 4.1).

In those 3 starts, he was pretty atrocious. He went 12.2ip with 6bb/14, an era of 11.37 and a WHIP of 2.05, giving up 6xbh. Of course if you take any pitchers worse 3 starts of the year it will probably look just as terrible. The other 10 starts: 54ip, 18bb/63k, 2.33 era, 1.24 WHIP and 9 xbh. Even in his good starts he's still pitching less than 5 1/2.

 

[j44thor]

The entirety of the bullpen.
Who ever would have guessed that this bullpen could go 20+ scoreless innings back in April.

 

[grimshaw]

Three of their projected pen guys (Smith by mid season, Thornburg, and Ross) are not missed in the least and the shuttle options aren't half bad.

One more bat and one or two of Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez being a healthy and effective pitcher during the second half, and this is a world series contender. Imagine if all 5 starters are healthy and get it going. . .

Even icing on the cake stuff like Devers contributing in August, or Carson Smith or Holt ever being healthy are possible upgrades.

And Chris Sale has an outside shot at a 10 WAR season which would be the first for a pitcher since RJ in 2001

 

[uk_sox_fan]

The emergence of ERod as a rising star. In his last 7 starts before his kneecap started wandering up and down his leg he went 4-0 with 2.25 era 2.9 bb/9 9.0 k/9 1.05 whip, pitched at least 6ip each and every start with an average gs of 62. Opponents slashed .204/.274/.318/.593. His worst start in that stretch (a 4-3 loss to Minn) he posted a 6ip 7h 3er 3r 1bb 6k line - the Sox won each of his other 6 starts.

He's showing good signs of returning earlier than expected and should provide invaluable stability to the middle of the rotation when he does.

 

[phenweigh]

On the other hand, he is killing our bullpen in the process. He is averaging barely over 5 innings a start and failed to reach 5ip in 5 of his 13 starts. He has only reached 6 ip in 5 of his 13 starts. One of those 5 was for 6.1, another for 7. He's kind of a mixed bag. It's hard to give up much more than 2er when you are barely going 5. Although the 3 starts he did give up more than 2 er were all under 5 IP (4.1, 4, 4.1).

In those 3 starts, he was pretty atrocious. He went 12.2ip with 6bb/14, an era of 11.37 and a WHIP of 2.05, giving up 6xbh. Of course if you take any pitchers worse 3 starts of the year it will probably look just as terrible. The other 10 starts: 54ip, 18bb/63k, 2.33 era, 1.24 WHIP and 9 xbh. Even in his good starts he's still pitching less than 5 1/2.

This is not in the spirit of the thread. C'mon man, I even found a way to praise Marrero's hitting by using extreme recency bias.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I know the starters get a lot of shit, but Sox currently lead the AL in innings produced by starting pitching. Sale helps with that, sure, but our bullpen is definitely helped by pitching the fewest innings of any team in the league.

The pitching staff is 3rd in ERA+, 3rd in Ks, and first in K/BB.

It's also somewhat amazing that we're dead average in runs scored, but dead last in HR (10 below the next team). If that normalizes a bit, the Sox could score some serious runs in a hurry.

 

[Unin10D]

All in all, half a game ahead in the East with a few weeks before the ASB, at the outset of the season I'dve been like "meh, okay"

But given the fact that nearly every starter has been on the DL, Pedroia has been banged up, Sandoval is who we thought he was, and Beni went a month where he couldn't hit his height, yeah, I'll take it. The MFYs seem to be regressing to the mean a bit, and it's shaping up to be a great pennant race.

Reading the Pedro/Ortiz article today, I was reminded about how special the rivalry was in those years. It's definitely lost a bit of luster with neither team peaking at the same time. As much as I'd like to see the division get put away by August, if in September it's Bos/MFY within a half game, well then hell yeah

 

[uk_sox_fan]

All in all, half a game ahead in the East with a few weeks before the ASB, at the outset of the season I'dve been like "meh, okay"

But given the fact that nearly every starter has been on the DL, Pedroia has been banged up, Sandoval is who we thought he was, and Beni went a month where he couldn't hit his height, yeah, I'll take it. The MFYs seem to be regressing to the mean a bit, and it's shaping up to be a great pennant race.

Reading the Pedro/Ortiz article today, I was reminded about how special the rivalry was in those years. It's definitely lost a bit of luster with neither team peaking at the same time. As much as I'd like to see the division get put away by August, if in September it's Bos/MFY within a half game, well then hell yeah

That brings up a good point. I'm usually quite a homer that follows the Sox as closely as I can from over here in London, but have limited exposure to other teams outside the AL East because, well, it's bloody difficult to. But this year seems to be just chalk full of young, exciting really good teams that are fun to follow. And likable teams at that.

Last year's World Series was between two teams that I genuinely admired and wanted to win - that never happens for me. Houston this year is as good as it gets as far as watching young talent emerge (much like the Cubs last year). The Rockies and D-backs are still off my radar since WC games are never accessible for me but from what I understand they are more than a flash in the pan and are entertaining as hell to watch. Within the division the Yankees and (to a lesser extent) the Rays are must-see teams at least for the highlight reels and game reports.

So why bring this up in this thread? Because when MLB is chalk full of entertaining teams that are fun to watch it's all that much better to have your team in the thick of things both in terms of talent / chances to win, but also in terms of watching youth take over and stars develop. It's a great time for MLB and we're lucky that the Red Sox franchise has emerged from its 2-year slumber in time to fully participate.

 

[E5 Yaz]

On the other hand, he is killing our bullpen in the process. He is averaging barely over 5 innings a start and failed to reach 5ip in 5 of his 13 starts ... Even in his good starts he's still pitching less than 5 1/2.

The MLB average this season is 5.57 innings pitched as a starter. Pom's easily in the range of error. It just looks more noticeable because Porcello and Sale go deeper.

Oh, and my additional sunshine players are Robbie Scott's consistency and Christian Vasquez's offensive improvement

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Yankees expected regression.
EdRod.
The 4-B's.
Moreland.
Vazquez.
Sale... duh!
Kimbrell- duh!
Kelley
Barnes

I can't quite add Pom to the list yet.

Getting Hanley healthy. EdRod back. Pedroia healthy. Price and/or Porcello looking better and it's a legit contender.... even carrying Merrero noodle bat at 3rd

 

[Cesar Crespo]

The MLB average this season is 5.57 innings pitched as a starter. Pom's easily in the range of error. It just looks more noticeable because Porcello and Sale go deeper.

Oh, and my additional sunshine players are Robbie Scott's consistency and Christian Vasquez's offensive improvement

I think it seems more noticeable because he's actually really good in those 5 innings and you'd think he should be able to go 6 or 7 routinely but he can't because he's at 109 pitches after 5. It's odd seeing a pitcher come out of a game all the time at 5ip, 2er with 2bb/7k.

 

[crazybird1]

I want to second E5. Robby Scott's balls are gigantic. Every time I see him go against a lefty slugger I think he is going to get own, but he ends up making them look silly.

 

[rlsb]

Five Red Sox with the opportunity to hit 20+ home runs, a group that does not include the hitter with the best OPS,
a good bullpen with an elite closer, and good starting pitching including a pitcher who has been and will be an antidote for a long losing streak.
The schedule bodes well for this team in the second half, in particular July 14th - August 6th (18 of 24 at home) and 24 of the final 49 at home. No games outside of the Eastern time zone after July 26th. The big AL East stretch is early (August 25th - September 10th), and not through the end of the season. The Astros don't have to be faced again until game 159. I believe they will be better then they are now (barring injuries).

 

[Seabass]

Just going to name a few you didn't list.
JBJ. He started the year pretty bad but has been on fire since. We are at the point where it's safe to assume JBJ is an .800+ OPS player. His last 32 games: .315/.424/.595, .341 BAbip, 20bb/22k in 132 PA. He has his K rate down to 20.4% for the year, down from 22.5% last year, while his BB rate is 12.0%, last year it was 9.9%.

Since JBJ came off his three day, post DL hiatus on May 9,he's hit .298/.395/.565. He's on pace for a six win season and could be making that next step if he can sustain the power spike. Mookie's going to get the headlines, but JBJ is doing everything you could ask of him.

 

[simplicio]

John Farrell. He's dramatically improved his bullpen usage this year, he's dealt with the rolling emergency ward at second and third about as handily as you could hope, and he's been surprisingly sensible about keeping Sandoval out of games.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Five Red Sox with the opportunity to hit 20+ home runs, a group that does not include the hitter with the best OPS,
a good bullpen with an elite closer, and good starting pitching including a pitcher who has been and will be an antidote for a long losing streak.
The schedule bodes well for this team in the second half, in particular July 14th - August 6th (18 of 24 at home) and 24 of the final 49 at home. No games outside of the Eastern time zone after July 26th. The big AL East stretch is early (August 25th - September 10th), and not through the end of the season. The Astros don't have to be faced again until game 159. I believe they will be better then they are now (barring injuries).

And all 5 of Xander's HRs have come in the last 27 games. If he keeps that pace up, he'll get close to 20 as well.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Five Red Sox with the opportunity to hit 20+ home runs, a group that does not include the hitter with the best OPS,
a good bullpen with an elite closer, and good starting pitching including a pitcher who has been and will be an antidote for a long losing streak.
The schedule bodes well for this team in the second half, in particular July 14th - August 6th (18 of 24 at home) and 24 of the final 49 at home. No games outside of the Eastern time zone after July 26th. The big AL East stretch is early (August 25th - September 10th), and not through the end of the season. The Astros don't have to be faced again until game 159. I believe they will be better then they are now (barring injuries).

I believe there's a good chance the Astros won't have anything to play for the last weekend.

 

[rlsb]

I believe there's a good chance the Astros won't have anything to play for the last weekend.

You're right. The last sentence for clarification refers to the Red Sox.

 

[drbretto]

Well, I was about to just mention the bullpen and their streak of 21 games without blowing a save, but....

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

John Farrell. He's dramatically improved his bullpen usage this year, he's dealt with the rolling emergency ward at second and third about as handily as you could hope, and he's been surprisingly sensible about keeping Sandoval out of games.

Wow.

 

[simplicio]

Wow.

Disagree? I feel like the Farrell of a couple years ago never starts Rutledge or Marrero over Sandoval, waits on playing Kimbrel in the ninth or extra innings until there's a save opportunity, and certainly isn't adventurous enough to end up with Vazquez playing third.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Disagree? I feel like the Farrell of a couple years ago never starts Rutledge or Marrero over Sandoval, waits on playing Kimbrel in the ninth or extra innings until there's a save opportunity, and certainly isn't adventurous enough to end up with Vazquez playing third.

Think he was referring to the timing of it all given today's results.

 

[simplicio]

Yeah, I would have loved to see Kimbrel after Barnes today, but at the same time I'd love to see 2017 Kimbrel in any/every high pressure situation, which is obviously infeasible. Robbie Scott earned his chance, and I don't put the fact that he blew it on Farrell.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Disagree? I feel like the Farrell of a couple years ago never starts Rutledge or Marrero over Sandoval, waits on playing Kimbrel in the ninth or extra innings until there's a save opportunity, and certainly isn't adventurous enough to end up with Vazquez playing third.

??? Farrell basically benched Sandoval in ST of 2016 in favor of Shaw.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Yeah, I would have loved to see Kimbrel after Barnes today, but at the same time I'd love to see 2017 Kimbrel in any/every high pressure situation, which is obviously infeasible. Robbie Scott earned his chance, and I don't put the fact that he blew it on Farrell.

Exactly. Once or twice a season it would be good to see your best reliever come into the highest leverage situation, even if it's the eighth inning with no outs and the bases loaded. Let him get out of that inning and bring in someone else to pitch to the bottom of the order (hopefully) in the ninth.

 

[streeter88]

I know the starters get a lot of shit, but Sox currently lead the AL in innings produced by starting pitching. Sale helps with that, sure, but our bullpen is definitely helped by pitching the fewest innings of any team in the league.

The pitching staff is 3rd in ERA+, 3rd in Ks, and first in K/BB.

It's also somewhat amazing that we're dead average in runs scored, but dead last in HR (10 below the next team). If that normalizes a bit, the Sox could score some serious runs in a hurry.

This is really surprising, and amazing all at the same time.

I would add that since Marrero has been at 3B (and I hope they keep him there), the infield defense seems to have stabilised a bit. At least at 3B, errors dropped from 12 in the first 31 games to only 4 in the next 40. The rest of the infield has committed 12 errors total (1B 4, 2B 1, SS 7).

 

[nvalvo]

This is really surprising, and amazing all at the same time.

I would add that since Marrero has been at 3B (and I hope they keep him there), the infield defense seems to have stabilised a bit. At least at 3B, errors dropped from 12 in the first 31 games to only 4 in the next 40. The rest of the infield has committed 12 errors total (1B 4, 2B 1, SS 7).

It's not just errors: Marrero has played good enough defense at 3B to be worth 0.0 fWAR while sporting a 31 wRC+.

The dWAR component of that is in a tiny sample, so it's not worth much, but you'll intuit that it has to be massively positive to offset his line at the plate.