Prompted by the Paxton discussion in the other thread and the inevitable buy/sell/hold debates that are coming this month. The last poll was looking backward. This one is looking forward. What say you?
Taking the pulse of SOSH for 2023
- Thread starter AB in DC
- Start date
I’m in the “let’s see what happens” camp and it looks like so far the majority of the forum is too. If they get hot over the next 3 weeks and Story comes back and Sale is on the doorstep by late July, then maybe you are buyers.
But otherwise, I’m enjoying watching the development of some of the youngsters and still enjoy watching veteran pros like Turner put up quality at bats consistently.
But otherwise, I’m enjoying watching the development of some of the youngsters and still enjoy watching veteran pros like Turner put up quality at bats consistently.
They are #1 in strength of schedule to date, and even with that, their expected W-L is 43-40... 2.5 games out of the WC. And that's with a rotation and middle infield depth chart that calls to mind scenes from the movie 1917.
Guys are coming back. The strength of their remaining schedule is 19th, with opponents who, all told, are slightly below .500. This season has been incredibly frustrating, mostly for reasons beyond their control, but that doesn't have to be the case forever.
Guys are coming back. The strength of their remaining schedule is 19th, with opponents who, all told, are slightly below .500. This season has been incredibly frustrating, mostly for reasons beyond their control, but that doesn't have to be the case forever.
Time to piss on the fire and call in the dogs. This hunt is over.
They say Story will be back. How good will he be? At his best he's streaky and nobody knows what his defense will look like. They say Sale will be back. Sure he will. And when? After 8/1 it doesn't much matter. I'm more excited about Schreiber and Chang and Pablo returning because we know what we'll be getting.
Sell. Get some fliers who don't immediately have to be on the 40.
I was hoping for meaningful ball in September, but I can't believe that'll happen.
They say Story will be back. How good will he be? At his best he's streaky and nobody knows what his defense will look like. They say Sale will be back. Sure he will. And when? After 8/1 it doesn't much matter. I'm more excited about Schreiber and Chang and Pablo returning because we know what we'll be getting.
Sell. Get some fliers who don't immediately have to be on the 40.
I was hoping for meaningful ball in September, but I can't believe that'll happen.
Sale coming back. Where have I heard that before?
He's been our hoped for savior three seasons in a row, plus 2018! Does anyone think he will actually deliver on this promise sometime?
I feel bad for the guy. I don't think he's some sort of lazy, underperforming a-hole because he can't stay healthy. But he can't. Normal pitchers don't have stress fractures and similar problems from pitching. Anything we get from him from here. is pure upside and not to be relied upon from game to game.
He's been our hoped for savior three seasons in a row, plus 2018! Does anyone think he will actually deliver on this promise sometime?
I feel bad for the guy. I don't think he's some sort of lazy, underperforming a-hole because he can't stay healthy. But he can't. Normal pitchers don't have stress fractures and similar problems from pitching. Anything we get from him from here. is pure upside and not to be relied upon from game to game.
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I'm on let's see what happens, cause they keep swinging back from these inexcusably bad turns to look like a real team again, and they've had some really unexpectedly marvelous pitching. Casas seems like he's left his bad hitting behind, and I have faith in Raffy finding his stroke again. Let's please get Story and our bullpen guys back?
Problem is they may be too far back to make up the difference unless they can really lock in some consistency, and that's been a huge struggle for them so far.
Problem is they may be too far back to make up the difference unless they can really lock in some consistency, and that's been a huge struggle for them so far.
I voted "let's see what happens", but realistically, I know it will take a lot of things breaking right for the Red Sox to make a run. But baseball is a fluky game, so who knows? I'll keep watching and hope they can get it together.
I still have hope, albeit a sliver, mostly because of the soft July schedule. If they can hold their own against the Jays and Rangers here, then make a run against the A’s, Cubs and a shitty Mets team, I don’t hate our chances of sneaking in. We got a lot of August games against the Royals, Tigers and Nats too.
Story feels like a keystone to me. Plug him in at SS, now that his elbow is fixed, and trade either Kiké or Duvall, and this weird roster suddenly makes sense in terms of defense and lineup balance.
I am enjoying competitive baseball and I still have hope they can trade Enrique, Turner, Duvall and maybe some older pitchers for some quality prospects from a talent-rich NL team like LAD or Atl
Kiké and Duvall yes (if we can reasonably bring up Cedanne this month), but I like keeping Turner if they're remotely competent.
The goal is to win the World Series as many times as possible before we die.
We're not at that level yet.
I think we'll get a longer window if we trade off what can be traded. That's pretty much everyone not under team control for 2024 plus Kenley Jansen. I think we'd be able to get someone interesting for Paxton and/or Jansen. Other than that, a collection of future Josh Winckowskis and Rob Refsnyders is good.
Also, send Casas to fielding camp.
We're not at that level yet.
I think we'll get a longer window if we trade off what can be traded. That's pretty much everyone not under team control for 2024 plus Kenley Jansen. I think we'd be able to get someone interesting for Paxton and/or Jansen. Other than that, a collection of future Josh Winckowskis and Rob Refsnyders is good.
Also, send Casas to fielding camp.
I'm in the "lets see what happens" camp. It's a very up-and-down club in term of performance, and the season is half over with the club one game under .500.
They're actually right at .500 in every way. 21-21 at home, 21-21 on the road.
Yeah, that's the thing. I don't know if/when Houck and/or Sale are coming back or who else might get injured along the way. The talent is definitely there...wherever that is!
Yep - brain fart on my part.
I think there's a lot of volatility in terms of possible outcomes still, but the season is getting on.
Let’s see what happens, but it’s not looking good. I much prefer watching this team to the likes of Pham and Hosmer, however, and am more sad than angry about the Kike at SS debacle. Casas needs to play 1B to improve (why did it take until June for the coaching staff to intervene?). Bello, Yoshida, and Verdugo give hope for the near future. Devers has been fine, and a bit unlucky, but needs to stop chasing up and away so much.
I came into this season with the outlook that 2023 would be a “bridge year”. Bringing young players onto the roster and letting them develop while playing competitive baseball. Keeping the minor league pipeline moving forward with more young players both being promoted and added.
Bloom’s plan.
The playoffs would be fun, but clearly not a hard target.
IMHO, the next window for a World Series opens in 2024 and runs for a decade..
Bloom’s plan.
The playoffs would be fun, but clearly not a hard target.
IMHO, the next window for a World Series opens in 2024 and runs for a decade..
That's why I put those four options, I've kinda vacillated across all four over the past week or two.IS "All of the above" an option?
I think I vacillate among the four like every day.That's why I put those four options, I've kinda vacillated across all four over the past week or two.
The ceiling for this team as it stands now is either the second or third wild card. The difference in quality between them and a team that has a reasonable expectation to advance deep into the playoffs is night and day. Any trades to try to bridge the gap would basically sell out whatever future that this team might have (and totally agaisnt what we all believe the current organizational philosophy is) and would still not be enough to bridge the gap (assuming that all other contenders make deals to improve).
I've lived through the Lou Gorman years where the Sox would improve just enough to make the playoff and be swept by the A's to know that isn't a recipe for success in either the short-term or the long-term.
Sell. Devers, Matasaka, any arb and pre-arb players are on the somewhat untouchable list (although Dalbec needs a change in scenery). Bloom should have been on the phone yesterday trying to make a trade for Paxton.
I've lived through the Lou Gorman years where the Sox would improve just enough to make the playoff and be swept by the A's to know that isn't a recipe for success in either the short-term or the long-term.
Sell. Devers, Matasaka, any arb and pre-arb players are on the somewhat untouchable list (although Dalbec needs a change in scenery). Bloom should have been on the phone yesterday trying to make a trade for Paxton.
I don't believe we know yet if they can compete with the RayBraves. Things would have to break just right (Sale, Story, and Houck would have to return in time and at a high level for a playoff push, everyone else would need to stay healthy, etc.). I checked 4 or 5 sites regarding playoff odds and the Sox stand between 10% and 25%. Fangraphs' 17% seems about right to me. In another 10 days, that will be even clearer.
I’d say that 2024 would be more open but we’d need to do some magic on the trade market. There isn’t a ton of top flight arms waiting in the minors and other than Ohtani the market is flawed/risky.
I'm not interested in a playoff run where they will never be favored and will likely lose if they play anyone other than New York or Toronto. I think if you try to shoot for the playoffs while keeping flexibility for the future, you're basically admitting that you're just hoping for a little extra revenue at the box office before the season ends. I also think it's effectively running in place, as that approach got us what is looking like a poor redux of '22. Sometimes you need to take a step back to move forward.
Winning the division and getting bounced quickly in the playoffs sounds a lot better than guaranteeing a last place finish by selling everything at the trade deadline. You shouldn't trade away Jeff Bagwell just to upgrade the major league roster, but I'd rather stand pat and see how things work out in August and September than losing a chance to do something this year for some lottery ticket you can't even cash in for several years.
I watch pretty much every game. I like watching good baseball and if that's not available, decent baseball. Bad baseball is not preferred. Watching Paxton pitch, Turner hit, and Verdugo playing right field is much more fun than whatever terrible Hamilton they can bring up from Worcester to take their places. Getting rid of them because it's possible some future team will be better isn't something I'd like to see happen.
So you want to rule out a potential 2021 scenario? Oookay. No thanks.
Who is to say that it's a low level prospect? If Bloom is adequate at his job, he should be scouting out for high level prospects that could have an impact either in 2024 or 2025. If he trades Paxton for a low-level prospect (or even a basket of low-level prospects), he's getting fleeced. The objective should be to find a team that is in go for it now mode.
How'd that work out for them again? Remind me, I'm having memory issues today. And how did it work out when they tried to do the same thing the following season?
They bounced the Yankees and Rays in the playoffs and won 2 games in the ALCS. Everyone was having a great time at Fenway and the place was louder than it had been in years. It was awesome. You should have seen it.
Worked out fine in 2021 because getting to game 6 of the ALCS is shitloads better than making tee times on October 5, and I enjoyed the fuck out of it as a fan. And so what if it didn't work out as well in 2022? Shit happens. I want the team to make the playoffs this year whether it's winning the division or slipping in as the third wildcard. Anything can happen from there. And if they can do it while continuing down the road of building for the future, all the better.
This is why GMs get paid and get fired. I think probably inside the building nobody is making such a fine distinction -- if they can qualify for the postseason, they think they can win. So Bloom gets pressed into taking the players' side and passing on some deals, even though he might be thinking that they're nothing more than an easy out in the WC round. But if he pulls the trigger on some deals, the Shaughnessy/PeteAbe crowd starts braying for blood. Hopefully they will make a clearer case for one path or the other.
Lots of misremembering on 2021 in this thread. That team got off to a scorching start, but really started to fade in the second half. Blooms big trade acquisition was Schwarher who sat for like a month when he first got here. When he finally did play he was good, but even then we were fading. Hell, it took Devers being a hero the final game of the season to avoid playing the Jays in a play in game. This season mirrors 2021, like I mirror Brad Pitt.We were 6 games over our Pythag for that season. While fun, that team really gave a false sense of Blooms ability.
They were fun as hell in the playoffs though.
They were fun as hell in the playoffs though.
Took the words right out of my mouth. It would have been a disappointment if the Sox missed the playoffs in 2021 given how consistent that they had been for most of the season. Even then. a large part of the fun of the 2021 playoffs was just how out of the blue and they became that year's AL Cinderella team. That said, they beat the Yankees in a one game playoff game which was pretty much 50/50 since the Sox had home-field advantage. They beat the Rays in a five game playoff series which was unexpected, but in a short series, anything can happen. They were even competitive against the Astros. But, damn, there was a lot of good fortune (and grand slams) during that run that I don't think you can count on happening any time soon. You can only hit the lottery so many times before the luck runs out.
Crystal ball time... should the Sox make the playoffs, the one game playoff is a crap shoot. The Sox have dominated two of the teams (Jays and Yankees) ahead of them. Five game playoff series can also go either way especially if the lesser team gets hot. However, seven game series tend to be a bit more of an indication of how teams match up head to head and that is where the math tends to fall apart for Cinderella teams that are playing way above their heads. Could it happen... sure. What's more likely to happen is, best case, what happened in 2021 where the Sox fall short.
The big difference between the 2021 team and the 2023 team is that if this year's edition does make the playoffs (and that is a HUGE IF), making the playoffs would not only be out of the blue should they stand pat at the trading deadline, but would lead directly into another year in 2024 where the Sox are on the cusp of being marginally good vs. being .500.
It was also the Sticky-Ban year, plus Covid-Replacement season with players bouncing in and out, with some late pushing from Jose Iglesias and Travis Shaw.
Barnes imploded in August, which was balanced by Richards going to the pen and Whitlock being Out-of-Nowhere outstanding. Meanwhile Schwarber revitalized Dalbec.
(We also learned of Cora's necrophilic attraction to Marwin Gonzalez.)
It was an excellent season.
Would you like one of us to text you when they've locked up a post-season as over-the-top favorites? That way you won't waste your time in the meantime.
This season could end in disappointment, so it's better to lock in the disappointment in July? If you only watch baseball to see a team win a championship, you're not going to like what you see the vast, vast majority of the time.
I've read this many times and cannot figure out what you're saying here. Is it that selling at this year's deadline is what will determine the Sox fate in 2024? Because if so, that's a whole lot of assumption about player development and off-season activity.
That actually would be very helpful, thank you! PM me for my number.
I love how the entire point of this thread was to vote and give a reason why you voted that way, yet people keep trying to convince other people that their opinions are wrong and, in some cases, that they are bad fans for not having hope spring eternal until the team is mathematically eliminated from contention... like the discussios in at least three other main board threads. I get being a diehard - I do - but after a certain point, it starts feeling forced. I would love if they went on a run of like 27-6 to get right back into it and be forced to eat my words when they have yet another parade in October. I'd also like to win the lottery and have my own island. One seems much more plausible than the other right now and that's why I feel the way I do and voted the way I do.
As far as I'm concerned, a season that doesn't end in a title is a failed season for the franchise, even if individual players make huge strides to give some hope for the future. And if it makes me a bad fan to not be content with a playoff run that doesn't end with a championship, then I'm a bad fan. I'm not going to lose sleep over that, either. I'll just turn the page. I'm not going to stop following them or rooting for them to win - Herm Edwards was right, after all - but I'm also going to believe them when they tell me who they are during a given season.
I find my life is much easier that way. YMMV.
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The only sell trade I see helping the 2024 club in any meaningful way is maybe trading Paxton for an almost-ready minor league prospect. Otherwise it’s pure lottery tickets that are years down the road.
The rhetoric around this trade deadline already seems wildly exaggerated on the real-world impact.
It's also not at all clear to me whether the return on a Paxton trade, or Paxton himself, would be more valuable to the team in 2024.
The Sox biggest need is major league ready pitching- I don’t think they are going to get that in return for Paxton. They are in reasonably good shape at most other positions; given the fact that they can and likely will at least offer Paxton a QO, I imagine he stays. Risk is he gets hurt, they don’t offer a QO, but that’s a reasonable risk to take, I think.
(There’s also the fact that there isn’t really anyone in the system ready to take the starts if they move a starter. Maybe it doesn’t matter, but not being competitive down the stretch isn’t ideal).
(There’s also the fact that there isn’t really anyone in the system ready to take the starts if they move a starter. Maybe it doesn’t matter, but not being competitive down the stretch isn’t ideal).
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Thanks. They changed it for last year. In my defense, I wasn't that locked into baseball in October of 2022.
This is an absolutely ridiculous and mawkishly entitled position to take in a league of 30 professional teams.
True. It really comes down to what you want. Do you want to see a team that is marginally competitive now or do you want to see a team with a better chance next year. Keep in mind that the competitive teams are all going to try to get better at the trading deadline. Standing pat, as was suggested earlier is just going to widen the gap. I look at it like inflation, if your paycheck doesn't go up and inflation does, you're actually in a worse position.
No. Nothing is ever a guarantee obviously. Looking at the template that I believe that Bloom is using for team building (based on TB's) however, its not a stretch to say that bringing in upper level prospects is going to improve the team's position. Whether Bloom is up to the task or not is really for the Bloom thread though.
I think this is a really strong point. My struggle is I just don’t believe that Paxton is durable enough to bet on. Whether Bloom can swing a positive trade would indicate if MLB agrees with you or with me.
I think the current team’s biggest need is defense, and I have no idea how to improve that through the trade market. But could it be fixed with better coaching or by promoting a AAA player or two?
So I voted to start again for next year, but I would start with fixing the coaching staff, and maybe 1-2 promotions. The 2024 edition could be much better up the middle with an infusion of talent from AAA, but I also think Cora and Fatse both need to be replaced for best results in 2024.
(Edited for clarity)