Tanking vs. whatever it is the Sox are doing

[simplicio]

Agreed. The most sobering thing you can do is look at past drafts' top 10. Here is 2013's, for instance:

Mark Appel
Kris Bryant
Jon Gray
Kohl Stewart
Clint Frazier
Colin Moran
Trey Ball (...sigh)
Hunter Dozier
Austin Meadows
Phil Bickford

Here's 2016:

Mickey Moniak
Nick Senzel
Ian Anderson
Riley Pint
Corey Ray
AJ Puk
Braxton Garrett
Cal Quantrill
Matt Manning
Zack Collins

Tanking just doesn't make sense. Most of these guys don't pan out, which is pretty different from the NBA where you have to basically try to be incompetent to screw up multiple top 10 picks.

It feels a bit like cherry picking bad years there. The average 1-1 pick has 21.8 WAR lifetime; the average 1-2 is 15. That's super valuable!

But with the lottery, neither of those picks are guaranteed anymore. The fundamental premise of this thread is flawed because tanking isn't remotely the same as what Houston or whichever team got to do in the past.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Here we go again with the “wait until 2025 brigade”. I don’t see how this is any better than if they had just tanked starting in 2020 if we have to wait 5 years to be a contender again anyway. And it’s still based on the hope, not the certainty, that these prospects pan out.

Did the poster claim that 2024 wasn't going to be competitive? I didn't read that.

 

[Archer1979]

I mentioned this upthread and without looking at any numbers I'll just throw out that it's my understanding that teams generally make more money while tanking than while treading water. The declining attendance is more than offset by the $100+M payroll reduction. I mean the Angelos family would have never agreed to tank it wasn't profitable.

That's not even including the excess value that their draft picks are going to provide over the next 6 years, which should either find its way into the bottom line (increased attendance but limited salary) or the team's valuation.

fake edit: OK, I looked. According to Bob Nightengale, the Os were the 4th most profitable team in 2022 earning $64.7M. That because their payroll was something like $30M.

View: https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1638944455578517504?t=znAlQHA4pO2J6c_COYxk_g&s=19

I think Baltimore is an outlier since they make money off the Nationals as part of the regional rights thing that they signed away. This has been the basis for my conspiracy theory as to why it seems like the Orioles FO never really tries so they could make a boatload of cash fielding AAAA players with little or no effort. That, and Camden Yards was one of those destination events that also has Sox and Yankee fans in attendance at least nine times each a year.

Your overall point stands though especially when you look at the A's.

 

[BigSoxFan]

It feels a bit like cherry picking bad years there. The average 1-1 pick has 21.8 WAR lifetime; the average 1-2 is 15. That's super valuable!

But with the lottery, neither of those picks are guaranteed anymore. The fundamental premise of this thread is flawed because tanking isn't remotely the same as what Houston or whichever team got to do in the past.

I did cherry pick bad years to illustrate the point that you're at the mercy of the draft class in any year you tank. Obviously, some years will be good like the Harper/Machado one but the bust rate of these top 10 picks is incredibly high, which makes any tanking strategy very risky.

And your point on the new lottery is a good one.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Agreed. The most sobering thing you can do is look at past drafts' top 10. Here is 2013's, for instance:

Mark Appel
Kris Bryant
Jon Gray
Kohl Stewart
Clint Frazier
Colin Moran
Trey Ball (...sigh)
Hunter Dozier
Austin Meadows
Phil Bickford

Here's 2016:

Mickey Moniak
Nick Senzel
Ian Anderson
Riley Pint
Corey Ray
AJ Puk
Braxton Garrett
Cal Quantrill
Matt Manning
Zack Collins

Tanking just doesn't make sense. Most of these guys don't pan out, which is pretty different from the NBA where you have to basically try to be incompetent to screw up multiple top 10 picks.

The bolded absolutely is not true. The major difference between the NBA and MLB is that baseball players miss at a higher rate but there's no question that 1/1 draft picks are multiple times more likely to be premium players than 1/32. This article from 2021 just confirms what every other study I know about shows (based on drafts between 2005-2015 and results up to 2020): https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/.

In other words:



It's pretty clear to me that getting a top 5 pick for multiple years is likely going to add at least a couple of premium players, and that doesn't include the advantages in pool money and picking at the top of each round. The lottery doesn't address this as GMs just want a chance at the top of the draft and if a team tanks, they are going to tank until they get the correct players.

There is no surer way to build a championship team than tanking. That doesn't mean tanking results in championship contenders - we all know that teams screw that up. And sure, you might be able to find a HOF player at the end of the 2nd round in the NBA or as an undrafted FA in MLB but good luck with that as a strategy.

 

[simplicio]

Since the draft was started in the late 1960s, there have been two overall number one picks that have gone on to have a Hall of Fame career: Ken Griffey Jr. and Chipper Jones. MLB isn't the NFL, the NHL or the NBA. Tanking to get the top pick works out far less than anticipated.

BTW, people destroyed the Braves for taking Chipper number one in 1990. Everyone thought that Todd Van Poppel was the pick of that litter and while he goosed Atlanta by saying he'd rather go to the University of Texas (like his hero Roger Clemens) than sign there, there were many who said you take TVP because he had a "generational arm". Basically, the draft is worse than a crap shoot.

A HOF career is a measure of longevity, not the value provided to the drafting team. The list of first picks is littered with guys who were astoundingly good for a while and then flamed out. But if they're going elsewhere in free agency, their value in their 30s is meaningless to their original team. If you knew you could get Josh Hamilton with the first overall pick, you'd absolutely tank a bad season to get it done.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I think Baltimore is an outlier since they make money off the Nationals as part of the regional rights thing that they signed away. This has been the basis for my conspiracy theory as to why it seems like the Orioles FO never really tries so they could make a boatload of cash fielding AAAA players with little or no effort. That, and Camden Yards was one of those destination events that also has Sox and Yankee fans in attendance at least nine times each a year.

Your overall point stands though especially when you look at the A's.

I'm pretty sure HOU was making money during their tank even though they had hundreds of people show up to their games and I believe their radio ratings were 0.00001.

Can you imagine how much money the Red Sox would make if their payroll was $40M even if literally no one showed up to their games?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I'm pretty sure HOU was making money during their tank even though they had hundreds of people show up to their games and I believe their radio ratings were 0.00001.

Can you imagine how much money the Red Sox would make if their payroll was $40M even if literally no one showed up to their games?

Hmmm, not sure it’s a slam dunk. Would have to do the month but a decline of $160-$200M or whatever in costs would be offset a fair amount by losses in revenue and potential damage to the brand.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Yup. I'm patiently waiting for Chaim to find his Yordan trade

It's getting to be high time to give Bloom some praise for the Mookie trade. Looking at other All-Star trade deals, they rarely work- specifically thinking of the Goldschmidt deal. Bloom may have nabbed a long-term very, very good Catcher, along with a potential AS. Yeah... neither of these guys are Mookie but Mookie was likely walking away with nothing in return.
And yeah... neither of those guys are an Alvarez either. But also getting Whitlock should be a plus for Bloom.

 

[Archer1979]

I'm pretty sure HOU was making money during their tank even though they had hundreds of people show up to their games and I believe their radio ratings were 0.00001.

Can you imagine how much money the Red Sox would make if their payroll was $40M even if literally no one showed up to their games?

Yeah. NESN isn't going anywhere and it's an ATM machine for Henry. Merchandising sales will take a hit. The Globe will still report. They'd still make money, I just don't think it would be as much. But I think it would hurt the overall value of the team which is important to Henry if he ever decides to sell. But...

I think Henry could make a lot more money if he gets the roster full of cost-controlled talent, middle of the road FAs, and is a legit contender every year.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

A HOF career is a measure of longevity, not the value provided to the drafting team. The list of first picks is littered with guys who were astoundingly good for a while and then flamed out. But if they're going elsewhere in free agency, their value in their 30s is meaningless to their original team. If you knew you could get Josh Hamilton with the first overall pick, you'd absolutely tank a bad season to get it done.

What? I have no idea what you're arguing here re: the bolded portion of your response.

Ask the Rays if they had a do-over of the 1999 Draft whether they'd rather have Josh Hamilton or Josh Beckett? Hamilton, who had a long history of poor off-field mistakes, is a terrible example to use. A team drafts a player number one because they think that this player is going to be the jewel of their system for years to come. Theoretically there aren't a lot of chances to get the number one, so when you get one you have to make sure that you draft correctly. My thought, which you support using your Hamilton example, is that the draft is not always the most predictable way to build a team in MLB.

And if the Sox tanked for five years and got this generation's Josh Hamilton and all the bullshit that went with him, it would be a gigantic disappointment.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Hmmm, not sure it’s a slam dunk. Would have to do the month but a decline of $160-$200M or whatever in costs would be offset a fair amount by losses in revenue and potential damage to the brand.

Astros apparently made $99M in 2013 at the height of their tanking: https://bill37mccurdy.com/2013/08/27/2013-astros-biggest-profits-in-sports-history/.

Yes, 20,000 * $100 * 81 = $162M but a bunch of costs would be reduced as well.

 

[simplicio]

What? I have no idea what you're arguing here re: the bolded portion of your response.

Ask the Rays if they had a do-over of the 1999 Draft whether they'd rather have Josh Hamilton or Josh Beckett? Hamilton, who had a long history of poor off-field mistakes, is a terrible example to use. A team drafts a player number one because they think that this player is going to be the jewel of their system for years to come. Theoretically there aren't a lot of chances to get the number one, so when you get one you have to make sure that you draft correctly. My thought, which you support using your Hamilton example, is that the draft is not always the most predictable way to build a team in MLB.

And if the Sox tanked for five years and got this generation's Josh Hamilton and all the bullshit that went with him, it would be a gigantic disappointment.

I used Hamilton intentionally. Of course you'd rather have Beckett, but not every draft has both a Hamilton and a Beckett. My point is if you could guarantee yourself control over Hamilton's first five pro years, warts and all, you'd be one goddamn ecstatic GM.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

My thought, which you support using your Hamilton example, is that the draft is not always the most predictable way to build a team in MLB.

To be accurate, while the draft is not necessarily a predictable way to build a team, it is still more predictable than any other way of building the team, particularly this "tread water" thing that BOS is apparently doing.

But I think it would hurt the overall value of the team which is important to Henry if he ever decides to sell. But...

It would hurt the short-term overall value of the team and Henry could not sell until the tank was over. But again - look at CHI, HOU, and (soon to be) BAL - their overall franchise value has skyrocketed due in large part to the excess value that the top draft picks have produced.

According to the tweet below, Mookie generated approximately $250M in excess value to the Sox ($32.5M in salaries, something like $300M in WAR, calculation will depend on WAR is valued). While part of that value is theoretical, a part translated into bottom line (i.e., jersey sales and attendance) and franchise value (particularly since the Red Sox were contenders).

Tanking absolutely is a win for the owners.

It's a short-term loss for fans and players though.

View: https://twitter.com/patrick_twomey/status/1225160443276288000

 

[astrozombie]

These threads have gotten wild, and I say that as someone who has actively been part of the anti-Bloom brigade. Here is my 2 cents on the whole tanking issue:
1. Unlike the NBA, where a good player (LeBron, DWade,) can make a team and whiffing on a draft pick (Kwame Brown, Olowokandi) can break one, drafting in MLB is subject to too many variables. Yes, generally speaking high draft picks do better, but there are plenty of first round flameouts and later round selections who develop into all-stars. A lot of that has to do with identifying and then actively developing that talent.
2. To that end, tanking or being crummy is generally not a winning strategy. The Rays, Yankees, and Dodgers don't tank and they are consistently good performers at the major league level and also arguably have solid farms behind them. The Pirates, Tigers and As have been awful for years and do not seem to be close to being powerhouses. Yeah, there are the Astros and Orioles (lately) sprinkled in there with full-on tank jobs, but those seem like both exceptions to the rule and evidence that those organizations can develop talent.
3. A good MLB team OR a good farm is not a mutually exclusive paradigm. They can both be good, even though typically one gets sacrificed for the good of the other (DD trading prospects for established talent, prospects being promoted, etc). Obviously that is no easy task, but it can certainly be done, especially when the development of those players is working.
4. Which leads me to Bloom - I just don't think he is the right guy for the job. Threading the needle is certainly possible, but nothing that Bloom has done (to me, obviously this is subjective) indicates that he is developing the players he has or acquiring potential talent in a way that projects a lot of future success. Not to say that the farm is bereft of talent - Mayer, Cedanne, etc. all look good and I hope they are more Mookie Betts than Lars Anderson (in terms of hype relative to performance). At the major league level, no, the team is not performing the way many fans would hope. 2021 was fun, but I don't understand how Bloom gets credit for that, but then the team sucks in 2022 and that's somehow not on Bloom.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

To be accurate, while the draft is not necessarily a predictable way to build a team, it is still more predictable than any other way of building the team, particularly this "tread water" thing that BOS is apparently doing.

So you're saying that Bloom isn't drafting?
Last I checked... he was drafting and was looking like he was doing a pretty good job. They tanked in a garbage year and grabbed possibly a generational talent and otherwise in competive '21 were considered to have drafted well also. Histrionics again here... Bloom is threading the needle and it looks like long-term it's going to put together a team that should be MORE competitive starting in '24 (you get this... I said, I doubt that they'll be in a position to chase 95-100 wins next season, but should be improved enough to be somewhere between 88-93 wins....?????) and a ALE potential winner and top AL team by '95. People would rather have shut the entire team down after '18 and played 60 win baseball for 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. and then expect '24 to look better than it does right now???? I'm so utterly baffled by this take.
And the burden of proof is on the Bloom Nay-Sayers to provide evidence that THEIR ideas of how the team should've moved forward over the last seasons would somehow put them in a better position today. The Pro-Bloom people have been able to provide evidence against those claims pretty regularly from my perspective (which I don't think is Pro-Bloom but I'm sure others disagree).

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I used Hamilton intentionally. Of course you'd rather have Beckett, but not every draft has both a Hamilton and a Beckett. My point is if you could guarantee yourself control over Hamilton's first five pro years, warts and all, you'd be one goddamn ecstatic GM.

Maybe the day he signed the contract, but within a year it would be an absolute waste of a pick because Hamilton didn't make it to the Majors until 2007. And then for Cincinnati. The better example would be Stephen Strasburg, David Price or maybe BJ Surhoff. Guys that did well for their teams initially and either found stardom elsewhere (Price definitely, Surhoff if you squint) or who had great seasons but were oft-injured (Strasburg). Those are hits for the drafting team. Not Josh Hamilton. He never made it out of AA with the Rays.

 

[joe dokes]

At the major league level, no, the team is not performing the way many fans would hope. 2021 was fun, but I don't understand how Bloom gets credit for that, but then the team sucks in 2022 and that's somehow not on Bloom.

It's hard to keep track, but I dont get the sense that people who are saying the former are also saying the latter.
There are *reasons* why, in hindsight that those seasons went the way they did. (mostly surrounding the answers to the "if these things break right" questions). But it seems clear that this is the 3rd season of that sort of approach -- Bloom's approach -- at the major league level, while he tries to better the system below. Some categorically dont like that type of approach; some think it's failing. But I think the number of people here who seriously give him credit for one and not blame for the other is pretty small. And vice-versa. ("he was just lucky in 2021; 2022 revealed his true suck"). That's kind of non-sensical.

 

[Archer1979]

It would hurt the short-term overall value of the team and Henry could not sell until the tank was over. But again - look at CHI, HOU, and (soon to be) BAL - their overall franchise value has skyrocketed due in large part to the excess value that the top draft picks have produced.

According to the tweet below, Mookie generated approximately $250M in excess value to the Sox ($32.5M in salaries, something like $300M in WAR, calculation will depend on WAR is valued). While part of that value is theoretical, a part translated into bottom line (i.e., jersey sales and attendance) and franchise value (particularly since the Red Sox were contenders).

Tanking absolutely is a win for the owners.

It's a short-term loss for fans and players though.

View: https://twitter.com/patrick_twomey/status/1225160443276288000

I get what you're saying but those teams whose value went up did as there was more interest in the team (ticket sales, local viewerships, merchandising). According to the SportTrac link below, the Sox are probably at their peak on the overall list which suggests that they've kind of maxxed out. Tanking is only going to cut interest (and potential revenue and value). Even if they tank and come back up to their current value, they're still in the same place. I don't think a scenario exists where they would ever supplant NY as the most valuable team in the majors.

https://www.sportico.com/feature/mlb-team-values-rankings-list-1234715821/

 

[8slim]

No. Hell no. Tanking is dumb, particularly so in baseball. I don’t give a fuck that the Astros have had a nice run. Tanking sucks and is insulting to fans. I’d prefer Henry sell the team than even engage is something so craven and cynical.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I wouldn't take this deal.

I'm usually pretty good at finding things to root for with the Red Sox in most circumstances. Sometimes it is competing for the postseason, which makes it easy. Other times you need to dig a little deeper. Counting batters until your favorite hitter. Rooting for a particular starter. Maybe the team is really good at something or has a particularly electric closer.

I have to admit that I'm having trouble this year. But that's ok. It's not permanent. It's just a consequence of having a bit of a team of spare parts and misfit toys. I wish we had less turnover. Even if new guy is as good as say, Nate Eovaldi, there's still a satisfaction watching Eovaldi because always in back of your mind, you have that world series game to lean back on -- even if only subconsciously -- and smile a little. We don't have much of that with this team. I like watching some of the new guys get their chance. I wish I could say that was good enough, but I'm having some trouble this year.

The Dermody thing also really took a chunk out of me. It's probably silly and an overreaction, but it wasn't just him -- just more the gradual stripping away of the sports fantasy and who these guys we root for really are. It's more severe for me in the NFL, but I'm having it all sports. Just getting older I suppose. Heroes are stupid.

Bit of a digression. But, no, I don't need to make a Faustian bargain for 95 win years to enjoy the Red Sox. And if I stop enjoying them, I don't think that it will just be poor performance that gets me there.

 

[Niastri]

One thing about this is how much "superstar" talent (and its really a rhetorical question)? If its full of future servicable/league average major league talent, its not really all that different from what you can pick up off the discount rack during free agency.

A 2 WAR player costs say, 3/$30 in free agency... For every pre arbitration player you have making 2 WAR, you save $10 million in salary that can be used to pay your homegrown or somebody else's superstar.

This is the money that will allow us to pay Ohtani or Soto to come here in their prime.

If Mayer comes up next year and is a 4 War player, while Bello, Winckowski, Houck, Whitlock, Wong, Duran, Casas all perform 2-3 WAR above replacement, we can field a great team, with a couple superstars making superstar money, and still get to keep all our pool money and draft picks every draft.

Then we still have Bleis, Yorke, Rafaela, Anthony, and whatever pitchers make it through in the next few years to backfill the cheap, effective players role in the roster.

I think the plan is working, and I think Bloome has done fairly well in his hit rate of guys nobody wanted playing well for us.

I just hope he doesn't sit on his hands this year if we're still five games out and trades everybody who can get us a decent prospect of we pin enough money to their uniforms.

 

[BigSoxFan]

It's getting to be high time to give Bloom some praise for the Mookie trade. Looking at other All-Star trade deals, they rarely work- specifically thinking of the Goldschmidt deal. Bloom may have nabbed a long-term very, very good Catcher, along with a potential AS. Yeah... neither of these guys are Mookie but Mookie was likely walking away with nothing in return.
And yeah... neither of those guys are an Alvarez either. But also getting Whitlock should be a plus for Bloom.

Verdugo has been a consistent reliable piece for 3.5 years at cheap $ and Wong is now emerging so, yes, I think that trade has turned out better than many originally assumed. Not sure I want to give Verdugo his next contract given the presence of Yoshida but, even if you don't, he's provided considerable value. If Downs had panned out into a useful piece, it would have been a clear cut win but even without him, it's still probably a win.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

A 2 WAR player costs say, 3/$30 in free agency... For every pre arbitration player you have making 2 WAR, you save $10 million in salary that can be used to pay your homegrown or somebody else's superstar.

This is the money that will allow us to pay Ohtani or Soto to come here in their prime.

If Mayer comes up next year and is a 4 War player, while Bello, Winckowski, Houck, Whitlock, Wong, Duran, Casas all perform 2-3 WAR above replacement, we can field a great team, with a couple superstars making superstar money, and still get to keep all our pool money and draft picks every draft.

Then we still have Bleis, Yorke, Rafaela, Anthony, and whatever pitchers make it through in the next few years to backfill the cheap, effective players role in the roster.

I think the plan is working, and I think Bloome has done fairly well in his hit rate of guys nobody wanted playing well for us.

I just hope he doesn't sit on his hands this year if we're still five games out and trades everybody who can get us a decent prospect of we pin enough money to their uniforms.

What’s the likelihood of that happening, though? Last years Sox team had 3 players with 2+ fWAR (none of them pitchers).

 

[chrisfont9]

It’s kind of amazing that the Astros’ big rebuild worked as well as it did given that they botched two first overall picks - Appel never made it to the majors with Houston and the other guy (Brady Aiken, I think his name was?) didn’t sign (they did get a comp pick which they used on Bregman). Like, imagine if the 2017 Astros had Kris Bryant and Michael Conforto instead of Beltran and Reddick?

EDIT: The Correa pick was viewed as a reach, if I’m remembering correctly

Go look at their international signings.

 

[chrisfont9]

A 2 WAR player costs say, 3/$30 in free agency... For every pre arbitration player you have making 2 WAR, you save $10 million in salary that can be used to pay your homegrown or somebody else's superstar.

This is the money that will allow us to pay Ohtani or Soto to come here in their prime.

If Mayer comes up next year and is a 4 War player, while Bello, Winckowski, Houck, Whitlock, Wong, Duran, Casas all perform 2-3 WAR above replacement, we can field a great team, with a couple superstars making superstar money, and still get to keep all our pool money and draft picks every draft.

Then we still have Bleis, Yorke, Rafaela, Anthony, and whatever pitchers make it through in the next few years to backfill the cheap, effective players role in the roster.

I think the plan is working, and I think Bloome has done fairly well in his hit rate of guys nobody wanted playing well for us.

I just hope he doesn't sit on his hands this year if we're still five games out and trades everybody who can get us a decent prospect of we pin enough money to their uniforms.

Mayer at 4 WAR next year sounds highly unlikely. He is struggling against breaking pitches at the moment. Give the kid some time. I bet he gets a cup of coffee later in 2024.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

People would rather have shut the entire team down after '18 and played 60 win baseball for 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. and then expect '24 to look better than it does right now???? I'm so utterly baffled by this take.

First of all, I'm not a Bloom-anything. I'm just trying to add some facts to the discussion.

I was responding to a post that said drafting is not the most predictable way of building a team. I agree with that because drafting is not predictable, particularly in baseball. HOWEVER, while drafting is not predictable, every other way of building a team is less predictable.

I agree that Bloom is drafting. I agree that building a team through a draft is the best way of building a contender. However, my point is that building a team through top 5 draft picks is waaaaaaaaay more predictable (though not surefire) than building a team with mid-first-round draft picks.

But to sum up my argument, if you don't think the Sox would look waaaaaaaaay better now if they had won 60 games from 2019-23 and picked in the top 5 each year, we can agree to disagree but I have no doubt that we'd be much more optimistic about BOS's future. See, e.g., BAL.

 

[Blizzard of 1978]

I mentioned this upthread and without looking at any numbers I'll just throw out that it's my understanding that teams generally make more money while tanking than while treading water. The declining attendance is more than offset by the $100+M payroll reduction. I mean the Angelos family would have never agreed to tank it wasn't profitable.

That's not even including the excess value that their draft picks are going to provide over the next 6 years, which should either find its way into the bottom line (increased attendance but limited salary) or the team's valuation.

fake edit: OK, I looked. According to Bob Nightengale, the Os were the 4th most profitable team in 2022 earning $64.7M. That because their payroll was something like $30M.

View: https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1638944455578517504?t=znAlQHA4pO2J6c_COYxk_g&s=19

So the Mets and Padres spent all that money only to lose a lot of money? Very interesting. I didn't realize that the Mets and Padres lost that kind of money.

 

[Archer1979]

A 2 WAR player costs say, 3/$30 in free agency... For every pre arbitration player you have making 2 WAR, you save $10 million in salary that can be used to pay your homegrown or somebody else's superstar.

This is the money that will allow us to pay Ohtani or Soto to come here in their prime.

If Mayer comes up next year and is a 4 War player, while Bello, Winckowski, Houck, Whitlock, Wong, Duran, Casas all perform 2-3 WAR above replacement, we can field a great team, with a couple superstars making superstar money, and still get to keep all our pool money and draft picks every draft.

Then we still have Bleis, Yorke, Rafaela, Anthony, and whatever pitchers make it through in the next few years to backfill the cheap, effective players role in the roster.

I think the plan is working, and I think Bloome has done fairly well in his hit rate of guys nobody wanted playing well for us.

I just hope he doesn't sit on his hands this year if we're still five games out and trades everybody who can get us a decent prospect of we pin enough money to their uniforms.

I'll defer to others on the WAR discussion, as much as I would like to see it, I would be stunned if the Sox go after any big-ticket free agents, much less Ohtani or Soto. The latest trend seems to be outrageous years with outrageous cash. I don't see Henry ever going to scenario where he could have that much potential dead money on the books.

 

[joe dokes]

I agree that Bloom is drafting. I agree that building a team through a draft is the best way of building a contender. However, my point is that building a team through top 5 draft picks is waaaaaaaaay more predictable (though not surefire) than building a team with mid-first-round draft picks.

The $250M question is whether that delta is worth several seasons that look like 2020, but with 100 more games each. Not for me (but others' mileage obviously varies).

 

[McSweeny]

The $250M question is whether that delta is worth several seasons that look like 2020, but with 100 more games each. Not for me (but others' mileage obviously varies).

Or what happens if the Red Sox suffer though 60 win seasons and end up looking like Kansas City or Detroit look today. Anyone want to trade places with them?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The $250M question is whether that delta is worth several seasons that look like 2020, but with 100 more games each. Not for me (but others' mileage obviously varies).

Personally, I get approximately the same amount of value from the Red Sox when they win 60 games as when they win 81 games so I'm not a great person to ask about that delta. I recognize I'm likely in the minority.

(Actually, having a couple of premium prospects - top 5 draft picks - to follow in the minors might increase my value.)

However, from a purely strategy POV, it's pretty much a no-brainer. I also say that the fact the Red Sox haven't done it means that John Henry is taking something more into consideration than just logic.

 

[zak1013]

Personally, I get approximately the same amount of value from the Red Sox when they win 60 games as when they win 81 games so I'm not a great person to ask about that delta. I recognize I'm likely in the minority.

(Actually, having a couple of premium prospects - top 5 draft picks - to follow in the minors might increase my value.)

Totally agree with this. Admittedly we are spoiled with 4 titles in 20 years but it’s just not that interesting to me at this stage to see the team muddle along to a .500 record.

 

[Harry Hooper]

However, from a purely strategy POV, it's pretty much a no-brainer. I also say that the fact the Red Sox haven't done it means that John Henry is taking something more into consideration than just logic.

There have been references in this thread to Fenway attendance, but isn't the major money is in the NESN revenues? Henry and Co. cannot be pleased with having the rates for ad spots on NESN suffer with viewership declines.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I was responding to a post that said drafting is not the most predictable way of building a team. I agree with that because drafting is not predictable, particularly in baseball. HOWEVER, while drafting is not predictable, every other way of building a team is less predictable.

I agree that Bloom is drafting. I agree that building a team through a draft is the best way of building a contender. However, my point is that building a team through top 5 draft picks is waaaaaaaaay more predictable (though not surefire) than building a team with mid-first-round draft picks.

This is simply not the case. I grabbed a ten year stretch (11 seasons) and here are the top five picks from each year:

2005:

1	1	JR	Justin Upton	Arizona Diamondbacks	ss	Great Bridge (Chesapeake, VA)
1	2	JR	Alex Gordon	Kansas City Royals	3b	University of Nebraska
1	3	JR	Jeff Clement	Seattle Mariners	c	University of Southern California
1	4	JR	Ryan Zimmerman	Washington Nationals	3b	University of Virginia
1	5	JR	Ryan Braun	Milwaukee Brewers	3b	University of Miami

2006:

1	1	JR	Luke Hochevar	Kansas City Royals	P	University of Tennessee
1	2	JR	Gregory Reynolds	Colorado Rockies	P	Stanford University
1	3	JR	Evan Longoria	Tampa Bay Rays	3B	Long Beach State University
1	4	JR	Brad Lincoln	Pittsburgh Pirates	P	University of Houston
1	5	JR	Brandon Morrow	Seattle Mariners	P	University of California

2007:

1	1	JR	David Price	Tampa Bay Rays	P	Vanderbilt University
1	2	JR	Mike Moustakas	Kansas City Royals	3B	Chatsworth High School (Chatsworth,CA)
1	3	JR	Josh Vitters	Chicago Cubs	3B	Cypress High School (Cypress, CA)
1	4	JR	Daniel Moskos	Pittsburgh Pirates	P	Clemson University
1	5	JR	Matt Wieters	Baltimore Orioles	C	Georgia Institute of Technology

2008:

1	1	JR	Tim Beckham	Tampa Bay Rays	SS	Griffin (Griffin,GA)
1	2	JR	Pedro Alvarez	Pittsburgh Pirates	3B	Vanderbilt University
1	3	JR	Eric Hosmer	Kansas City Royals	1B	American Heritage High School (Plantation, FL)
1	4	JR	Brian Matusz	Baltimore Orioles	P	University of San Diego
1	5	JR	Buster Posey	San Francisco Giants	C	Florida State University

2009:

1	1	JR	Stephen Strasburg	Washington Nationals	RHP	San Diego State University
1	2	JR	Dustin Ackley	Seattle Mariners	CF	University of North Carolina
1	3	JR	Donavan Tate	San Diego Padres	CF	Cartersville High School (Cartersville, GA)
1	4	JR	Tony Sanchez	Pittsburgh Pirates	C	Boston College
1	5	JR	Matthew Hobgood	Baltimore Orioles	RHP	Norco High School (Norco, CA)

2010:

1	1	JR	Bryce Harper	Washington Nationals	OF	College of Southern Nevada
1	2	JR	Jameson Taillon	Pittsburgh Pirates	RHP	The Woodlands High School (The Woodlands, TX)
1	3	JR	Manny Machado	Baltimore Orioles	SS	Brito Miami Private School (Miami, FL)
1	4	JR	Christian Colon	Kansas City Royals	SS	Cal State Fullerton
1	5	JR	Drew Pomeranz	Cleveland Indians	LHP	University of Mississippi

2011:

1	1	JR	Gerrit Cole	Pittsburgh Pirates	P	UCLA
1	2	JR	Danny Hultzen	Seattle Mariners	LHP	University of Virginia
1	3	JR	Trevor Bauer	Arizona Diamondbacks	P	UCLA
1	4	JR	Dylan Bundy	Baltimore Orioles	P	Owasso High School (Owasso, OK)
1	5	JR	Bubba Starling	Kansas City Royals	OF	Gardner Edgerton High School (Gardner, KS)

2012:

1	1	JR	Carlos Correa	Houston Astros	SS	Puerto Rico Baseball Academy (Gurabo, Puerto Rico)
1	2	JR	Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	SS	Appling County High School (Baxley, GA)
1	3	JR	Mike Zunino	Seattle Mariners	C	University of Florida
1	4	JR	Kevin Gausman	Baltimore Orioles	P	Louisiana State University
1	5	JR	Kyle Zimmer	Kansas City Royals	P	University of San Francisco

2013:

1	1	JR	Mark Appel	Houston Astros	RHP	Stanford University
1	2	JR	Kris Bryant	Chicago Cubs	3B	University of San Diego
1	3	JR	Jon Gray	Colorado Rockies	P	Oklahoma
1	4	JR	Kohl Stewart	Minnesota Twins	RHP	St. Pius X High School (Houston, TX)
1	5	JR	Clint Frazier	Cleveland Indians	OF	Loganville High School (Loganville, GA)

2014:

1	1	JR	Brady Aiken	Houston Astros	P	Cathedral Catholic High School (San Diego, CA)
1	2	JR	Tyler Kolek	Miami Marlins	P	Shepherd High School (Shepherd, TX)
1	3	JR	Carlos Rodon	Chicago White Sox	P	North Carolina State University
1	4	JR	Kyle Schwarber	Chicago Cubs	C	Indiana University
1	5	JR	Nick Gordon	Minnesota Twins	SS

2015:

1	1	JR	Dansby Swanson	Arizona Diamondbacks	SS	Vanderbilt University
1	2	JR	Alex Bregman	Houston Astros	SS	Louisiana State University
1	3	JR	Brendan Rodgers	Colorado Rockies	SS	Lake Mary High School (Lake Mary, FL)
1	4	JR	Dillon Tate	Texas Rangers	RHP	University of California-Santa Barbara
1	5	JR	Kyle Tucker	Houston Astros	OF	Plant High School (Tampa, FL)

The average career WAR for these 55 players is 16.492 and there are 34 players who performed under that average and there are four players within 10% of that number. So 69% (NICE!) of the Top 5 draft picks between 2005-2015 had a career WAR that was about average or lower than players in similar draft classes. In other words you have less than a one-in-three chance of getting a star if you tank to get in the Top Five. I don't think it's worth it, but YMMV.

BTW the average WAR for the seasons include:

2005: 30.52
2006: 14.4
2007: 14.1
2008: 14.74
2009: 8.02
2010: 23.88
2011: 12.7
2012: 18.28
2013: 8.86
2014: 5.66 (Woof)
2015: 13.94

The player with the highest career WAR is Evan Longoria with 58.7 and the worst number one pick is Brady Aiken who has none.

So to answer you assertion, it's not waaaaaaaay more predictable to build a team with a bunch of Top 5 picks. In fact, it's like I've been saying all along, it's a massive crapshoot where you have a 2/3 shot of fucking it up.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

This is simply not the case. I grabbed a ten year stretch (11 seasons) and here are the top five picks from each year:

2005:

1	1	JR	Justin Upton	Arizona Diamondbacks	ss	Great Bridge (Chesapeake, VA)
1	2	JR	Alex Gordon	Kansas City Royals	3b	University of Nebraska
1	3	JR	Jeff Clement	Seattle Mariners	c	University of Southern California
1	4	JR	Ryan Zimmerman	Washington Nationals	3b	University of Virginia
1	5	JR	Ryan Braun	Milwaukee Brewers	3b	University of Miami

2006:

1	1	JR	Luke Hochevar	Kansas City Royals	P	University of Tennessee
1	2	JR	Gregory Reynolds	Colorado Rockies	P	Stanford University
1	3	JR	Evan Longoria	Tampa Bay Rays	3B	Long Beach State University
1	4	JR	Brad Lincoln	Pittsburgh Pirates	P	University of Houston
1	5	JR	Brandon Morrow	Seattle Mariners	P	University of California

2007:

1	1	JR	David Price	Tampa Bay Rays	P	Vanderbilt University
1	2	JR	Mike Moustakas	Kansas City Royals	3B	Chatsworth High School (Chatsworth,CA)
1	3	JR	Josh Vitters	Chicago Cubs	3B	Cypress High School (Cypress, CA)
1	4	JR	Daniel Moskos	Pittsburgh Pirates	P	Clemson University
1	5	JR	Matt Wieters	Baltimore Orioles	C	Georgia Institute of Technology

2008:

1	1	JR	Tim Beckham	Tampa Bay Rays	SS	Griffin (Griffin,GA)
1	2	JR	Pedro Alvarez	Pittsburgh Pirates	3B	Vanderbilt University
1	3	JR	Eric Hosmer	Kansas City Royals	1B	American Heritage High School (Plantation, FL)
1	4	JR	Brian Matusz	Baltimore Orioles	P	University of San Diego
1	5	JR	Buster Posey	San Francisco Giants	C	Florida State University

2009:

1	1	JR	Stephen Strasburg	Washington Nationals	RHP	San Diego State University
1	2	JR	Dustin Ackley	Seattle Mariners	CF	University of North Carolina
1	3	JR	Donavan Tate	San Diego Padres	CF	Cartersville High School (Cartersville, GA)
1	4	JR	Tony Sanchez	Pittsburgh Pirates	C	Boston College
1	5	JR	Matthew Hobgood	Baltimore Orioles	RHP	Norco High School (Norco, CA)

2010:

1	1	JR	Bryce Harper	Washington Nationals	OF	College of Southern Nevada
1	2	JR	Jameson Taillon	Pittsburgh Pirates	RHP	The Woodlands High School (The Woodlands, TX)
1	3	JR	Manny Machado	Baltimore Orioles	SS	Brito Miami Private School (Miami, FL)
1	4	JR	Christian Colon	Kansas City Royals	SS	Cal State Fullerton
1	5	JR	Drew Pomeranz	Cleveland Indians	LHP	University of Mississippi

2011:

1	1	JR	Gerrit Cole	Pittsburgh Pirates	P	UCLA
1	2	JR	Danny Hultzen	Seattle Mariners	LHP	University of Virginia
1	3	JR	Trevor Bauer	Arizona Diamondbacks	P	UCLA
1	4	JR	Dylan Bundy	Baltimore Orioles	P	Owasso High School (Owasso, OK)
1	5	JR	Bubba Starling	Kansas City Royals	OF	Gardner Edgerton High School (Gardner, KS)

2012:

1	1	JR	Carlos Correa	Houston Astros	SS	Puerto Rico Baseball Academy (Gurabo, Puerto Rico)
1	2	JR	Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	SS	Appling County High School (Baxley, GA)
1	3	JR	Mike Zunino	Seattle Mariners	C	University of Florida
1	4	JR	Kevin Gausman	Baltimore Orioles	P	Louisiana State University
1	5	JR	Kyle Zimmer	Kansas City Royals	P	University of San Francisco

2013:

1	1	JR	Mark Appel	Houston Astros	RHP	Stanford University
1	2	JR	Kris Bryant	Chicago Cubs	3B	University of San Diego
1	3	JR	Jon Gray	Colorado Rockies	P	Oklahoma
1	4	JR	Kohl Stewart	Minnesota Twins	RHP	St. Pius X High School (Houston, TX)
1	5	JR	Clint Frazier	Cleveland Indians	OF	Loganville High School (Loganville, GA)

2014:

1	1	JR	Brady Aiken	Houston Astros	P	Cathedral Catholic High School (San Diego, CA)
1	2	JR	Tyler Kolek	Miami Marlins	P	Shepherd High School (Shepherd, TX)
1	3	JR	Carlos Rodon	Chicago White Sox	P	North Carolina State University
1	4	JR	Kyle Schwarber	Chicago Cubs	C	Indiana University
1	5	JR	Nick Gordon	Minnesota Twins	SS

2015:

1	1	JR	Dansby Swanson	Arizona Diamondbacks	SS	Vanderbilt University
1	2	JR	Alex Bregman	Houston Astros	SS	Louisiana State University
1	3	JR	Brendan Rodgers	Colorado Rockies	SS	Lake Mary High School (Lake Mary, FL)
1	4	JR	Dillon Tate	Texas Rangers	RHP	University of California-Santa Barbara
1	5	JR	Kyle Tucker	Houston Astros	OF	Plant High School (Tampa, FL)

The average career WAR for these 55 players is 16.492 and there are 34 players who performed under that average and there are four players within 10% of that number. So 69% (NICE!) of the Top 5 draft picks between 2005-2015 had a career WAR that was about average or lower than players in similar draft classes. In other words you have less than a one-in-three chance of getting a star if you tank to get in the Top Five. I don't think it's worth it, but YMMV.

BTW the average WAR for the seasons include:

2005: 30.52
2006: 14.4
2007: 14.1
2008: 14.74
2009: 8.02
2010: 23.88
2011: 12.7
2012: 18.28
2013: 8.86
2014: 5.66 (Woof)
2015: 13.94

The player with the highest career WAR is Evan Longoria with 58.7 and the worst number one pick is Brady Aiken who has none.

So to answer you assertion, it's not waaaaaaaay more predictable to build a team with a bunch of Top 5 picks. In fact, it's like I've been saying all along, it's a massive crapshoot where you have a 2/3 shot of fucking it up.

Now see how many picks from 21-25 earn more than 16 WAR.

But you don't have to do the work; it's been done before. I'll repost the chart I posted above from this 2021 article: https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa200586.



(BTW, when I posted the chart above, I used the incorrect link; the link in this post is correct.)

Again, just because it's a "massive crapshoot" to pick in the top 5 doesn't mean that it's not "waaaaaaaay more predictable" to build a team this way simply because it's super hard to draft premium players after, say, pick 10. I mean this isn't controversial. It's been the same since Philly Sox Fan used to post his draft value charts.

Whether or not teams want to go through the tanking process for an uncertain future is one thing but there is no question that a team that picks in the top 5 for 5 consecutive years is almost certainly going to end up with better talent than a team that picks 21-25 for the same 5 years. I mean if this wasn't true, the draft isn't doing what it's supposed to be doing.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Here's another study of draft value from 2022: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/is-the-draft-really-a-crapshoot-not-exactly/. The article reaches this conclusion: "First, teams historically have an excellent track record of correctly identifying the top three players in each draft and selecting them in order. Teams also have a strong track record of correctly identifying and selecting the top seven players in a draft within the top 10 picks."

 

[Midnight Ryder Jones]

Now see how many picks from 21-25 earn more than 16 WAR.

But you don't have to do the work; it's been done before. I'll repost the chart I posted above from this 2021 article: https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa200586.

View attachment 66066

(BTW, when I posted the chart above, I used the incorrect link; the link in this post is correct.)

Again, just because it's a "massive crapshoot" to pick in the top 5 doesn't mean that it's not "waaaaaaaay more predictable" to build a team this way simply because it's super hard to draft premium players after, say, pick 10. I mean this isn't controversial. It's been the same since Philly Sox Fan used to post his draft value charts.

Whether or not teams want to go through the tanking process for an uncertain future is one thing but there is no question that a team that picks in the top 5 for 5 consecutive years is almost certainly going to end up with better talent than a team that picks 21-25 for the same 5 years. I mean if this wasn't true, the draft isn't doing what it's supposed to be doing.

All you're proving is that top 5 picks tend to be better than players picked after them. That is not in doubt and in no way proves your assertion that building a team through the draft is "more predictable" than through free agency.

 

[chrisfont9]

I'll defer to others on the WAR discussion, as much as I would like to see it, I would be stunned if the Sox go after any big-ticket free agents, much less Ohtani or Soto. The latest trend seems to be outrageous years with outrageous cash. I don't see Henry ever going to scenario where he could have that much potential dead money on the books.

They just did this with Devers, and they offered a lot to Bogaerts. Obviously they aren't as careless with contract length as SD or NYM, but not everyone can sign there. Otani probably doesn't take a meeting but Soto might?

 

[Niastri]

Double post. Whoops

 

[Niastri]

What’s the likelihood of that happening, though? Last years Sox team had 3 players with 2+ fWAR (none of them pitchers).

2 WAR would definitely be optimistic for that many cheap young players... But it is also the kind of breakthrough that could happen.

I chose the guys I listed because they are actually on pace this year to get to ~2 WAR (ESPN stat page) or have the prospect pedigree/results to suggest they can get there (Casas), either this year or next. Including Crawford may be overly generous, but coming in at .5 WAR so far while just being promoted to starter with Sale's injury makes him a good candidate. I was trying to avoid wishcasting with my estimates.

Similarly, I didn't include anybody in my future prospects who will help list, unless they were on somebody's top100 prospect list.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

All you're proving is that top 5 picks tend to be better than players picked after them. That is not in doubt and in no way proves your assertion that building a team through the draft is "more predictable" than through free agency.

Right. Again... it's not like Bloom hasn't been drafting. He's actually had REALLY, REALLY good drafts since he came in... .but they're mostly at the lower minors or AA right now (5 year plans, y'know....). He's had a "tank" year and grabbed a top five pick. The following year they went to the ALCS. The other years they've struggled around .500 but still drafted well. Isn't this kind of an ideal scenario for rebuilding? This season is far from over for me to cast it completely as a middling season (although it's hard to argue that it's not headed that way).

 

[Archer1979]

They just did this with Devers, and they offered a lot to Bogaerts. Obviously they aren't as careless with contract length as SD or NYM, but not everyone can sign there. Otani probably doesn't take a meeting but Soto might?

To clarify, I meant other team's free agents. The reason is that it negates the variables like culture fit, health, etc.

 

[Niastri]

Mayer at 4 WAR next year sounds highly unlikely. He is struggling against breaking pitches at the moment. Give the kid some time. I bet he gets a cup of coffee later in 2024.

Mayer might start next year as the number one prospect in baseball, them go on to win rookie of the year or he might collapse and be a future utility journeyman. There are always a huge range of possibilities with players as young as he is.

I'm betting he's a starter here by '25 at the latest and at least a few time All Star.

Either way, my point was just how valuable even a 2 WAR player is when it's on a pre arbitration contract. If everybody on my list miraculously hits their 90th percentile projections while in their initial 6 years of control, it would be amazingly easy to build a great team.

 

[Niastri]

I'll defer to others on the WAR discussion, as much as I would like to see it, I would be stunned if the Sox go after any big-ticket free agents, much less Ohtani or Soto. The latest trend seems to be outrageous years with outrageous cash. I don't see Henry ever going to scenario where he could have that much potential dead money on the books.

Henry isn't afraid to spend... The rosters have always been at the top of the league in salary since Henry has been owner.

The question is if spending makes sense.

In my hypothetical where the team has a very solid base of young players making almost nothing and averaging 2 WAR each, it is very easy decide to push the team over the top by spending monster money on top of the game players.

Signing Ohtani and Soto (for instance) for a billion dollars doesn't seem so bad when the rest of the roster is a 90 win team costing less than $100 million. Ohtani in particular being one of both the best pitchers and hitters in the game makes him an insane value that it's hard to wrap your mind around.

If you're signing them for 12-15 years for a lower AAV, the money isn't even that bad, assuming they perform to current standards for half their contracts, have normal aging curves and the growth of the salary cap continues like it has the last 20 years. Lots of risk for sure, but also less because of all the cost controlled talent in the roster and in the pipeline.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

All you're proving is that top 5 picks tend to be better than players picked after them. That is not in doubt and in no way proves your assertion that building a team through the draft is "more predictable" than through free agency.

Right. MR is making my point. I'm not saying that Top 5 picks are worse than picks after them. I'm just saying that Top 5 picks are, by and large, not slam dunks.

I mean, I thought that was pretty obvious and I didn't need to spell it out. The Dodgers drafted Mike Piazza in the 30th round and I'm not advocating for Bloom to get rid of all of his picks and go hard in the last round (I know that there isn't a 30th round anymore).

Or to put it another way, say you're a Twins fan and just gutted your way through a bad 2013 season. Your reward is Nick Gordon. Are you happy with that return? Or would you have rather the Twins beef up their major league roster, get into the playoffs and see if they could make some noise (as long as the Yankees aren't in, of course)? The end result is that you watched a shit season, got nothing in the draft and your stuck with another lost year. Now imagine doing that five years in a row and getting 1-2 players that might be above average.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

All you're proving is that top 5 picks tend to be better than players picked after them. That is not in doubt and in no way proves your assertion that building a team through the draft is "more predictable" than through free agency.

I thought we were well past the stage where people thought you could build a contender through free agency. Free agency is an incredibly inefficient way of purchasing talent. First of all, a team is typically paying for past performance given the age at which guys hit FA. Also, in today's financial climate, more and more teams are locking up their cornerstone players which means the players that hit FA will not have the upside.

Teams have to have a certain amount of WAR to be a contender. Purchasing this WAR on the FA market is way too expensive. The only place where one can consistently get players who accumulate WAR at reduced prices is through the draft or International FA.

So why aren't I saying that teams should pour as many resources into the FA market as they can? Well, they should - but the problem with the IFA market is that it isn't predictable or controllable. The Sox can build a baseball palace in Latin America and try to get relationships with as many handlers as they can but at the end of the day, they are subject to whims the players plus there's a cap. The IFA market is super important and from all indications, BOS and Chaim are aware of that and are pouring a ton of resources there.

But just to be repetitive, the IFA market at the end of the day is not predictable. The one absolutely predictable and more or less controllable way for a team to guarantee itself of a player who is going to make 16+ WAR on an inexpensive contract is to pick in the top 5 for three straight years. It's not always true, but it's very often true. And that is why teams tank.

Everything baseball (and basketball) has done structurally in the last 20 years was basically to drive up the value of young, cost-controlled talent. This is why tanking is all the rage. That's why teams in all of the sports have stopped trying to win on occasion.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Right. MR is making my point. I'm not saying that Top 5 picks are worse than picks after them. I'm just saying that Top 5 picks are, by and large, not slam dunks.

Top 10 picks are way more likely to be slam dunks than all of the rest of the picks.

You are talking about anecdotes. I am talking about team building. A team with 5 top 5 picks in consecutive years is much more likely to have more talent than a team with 5 picks between 20 and 25. If you don't agree with that, that's fine but there's nothing more to discuss.

If I am building (or rebuilding a team), I go with the former but YMMV.

 

[Archer1979]

Henry isn't afraid to spend... The rosters have always been at the top of the league in salary since Henry has been owner.

The question is if spending makes sense.

In my hypothetical where the team has a very solid base of young players making almost nothing and averaging 2 WAR each, it is very easy decide to push the team over the top by spending monster money on top of the game players.

Signing Ohtani and Soto (for instance) for a billion dollars doesn't seem so bad when the rest of the roster is a 90 win team costing less than $100 million. Ohtani in particular being one of both the best pitchers and hitters in the game makes him an insane value that it's hard to wrap your mind around.

If you're signing them for 12-15 years for a lower AAV, the money isn't even that bad, assuming they perform to current standards for half their contracts, have normal aging curves and the growth of the salary cap continues like it has the last 20 years. Lots of risk for sure, but also less because of all the cost controlled talent in the roster and in the pipeline.

Hasn't been afraid to spend.

The Sox have one player (from outside the organization) on their roster signed to a mega-long-term deal contract since Bloom came onboard (Story). The reason they're at the top of the leaderboard in terms of spending but entrenched in the bottom of the AL East standings is that they offer short-term contracts at a premium dollar amount; lot of money on the IL; lot of money for players no longer on the active roster.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Hasn't been afraid to spend.

The Sox have one player (from outside the organization) on their roster signed to a mega-long-term deal contract since Bloom came onboard (Story). The reason they're at the top of the leaderboard in terms of spending but entrenched in the bottom of the AL East standings is that they offer short-term contracts at a premium dollar amount; lot of money on the IL; lot of money for players no longer on the active roster.

And they play defense like Helen Keller.

Oh plus all those other things.

I for one was shocked they re-signed Devers, but to do so they cleared the decks of Mookie and X. It's why they'll never be players for Ohtani should he hit the market. They might spend but they value flexibility over long term deals and thus will never ever sign a player like Ohtani to a market-value deal.

Sale got 168. Story got 160. That's middle class for FA contracts. That seems to be where they'd like to be. Whether that's a good idea, I leave to others to decide.