The 2023 Trade Deadline: Scenarios

chawson

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I would add Meidroth to that group. It's an abundance of talent that needs to be utilized to address a weakness and I suspect Yorke would be the biggest piece for other teams to look at and I suspect Meidroth may end up being the better player.

I mentioned upthread that two guys could be had as a rental... Montgomery and Giolito so wouldn't cost a major chip, but I also don't think either profiles as a top tier starter so could probably be extended for 3 years since both are still relatively young. I'd be pretty confident with pairing either of those two with Bello/Whitlock and Paxton as a playoff rotation if Sale doesn't return. I'd also like to add a reliable mid-level starter for the future (I don't think bringing Paxton back makes sense considering age and injury history) like one of those two while some of the younger guys down in single A mature up the ranks.
Montgomery is probably the top starter on the market this summer, isn't he? I'm not sure we get into a bidding war for a rental.

Another name that's interesting is Paul Blackburn, who's been recuperated into a decent pitcher for the A's (even on the road). He's cheap through 2025, but the A's usually flip those guys

I could see maybe Lance Lynn ($18M in '23) changing teams for little in return, but I don't know how much he'd help.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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My thought was acquiring a young, serviceable player with some potential who might have had a taste of the big leagues that could be further developed. The next guy in waiting if you will for an occasion such as this. They were fortunate in that they could finagle Hamilton onto the 40 by moving Chang to the 60 day IL, which might not always be an option. I really had no idea as to what to expect from Hamillton, very good defensively works for a classic backup. I know that they have Wong longer term and McGuire for a couple years, if Hamiton seems good enough to eventually elevate to the 40 man he may well fill the bill.
I think what I like about him is that when I play OOTP I always make sure to draft a super fast utility infielder to be the designated pinch runner (ideally also a guy you don't mind starting if you need to) and I think the strategy is super effective.
They all look immortal in their prime but I have a hard time believing that Ohtani is going to be a 2 way player into his mid-30s. It seems to me that there's twice as many things that could go wrong for him than a regular player.

I don't think Chaim believes it's smart to spend that kind of money on any one player and I can't say I disagree. Roster depth is a more reliable goal.
 

jon abbey

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They all look immortal in their prime but I have a hard time believing that Ohtani is going to be a 2 way player into his mid-30s. It seems to me that there's twice as many things that could go wrong for him than a regular player.

I don't think Chaim believes it's smart to spend that kind of money on any one player and I can't say I disagree. Roster depth is a more reliable goal.
Oh yeah, the Red Sox aren't going to go anywhere near that, neither are the Yankees. All you need is two teams where he would be happy to end up (LAD, NYM, SD?) and the bidding will go through the roof, and this particular roof is many many floors from the ground.
 

YTF

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I think what I like about him is that when I play OOTP I always make sure to draft a super fast utility infielder to be the designated pinch runner (ideally also a guy you don't mind starting if you need to) and I think the strategy is super effective.

They all look immortal in their prime but I have a hard time believing that Ohtani is going to be a 2 way player into his mid-30s. It seems to me that there's twice as many things that could go wrong for him than a regular player.

I don't think Chaim believes it's smart to spend that kind of money on any one player and I can't say I disagree. Roster depth is a more reliable goal.
Yeah, but Caleb Hamilton isn't THAT guy.;)
 

JM3

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Burnes is under control for next season as well, FWIW. He is arbitration eligible and not a free agent until before the 2025 season.

My apologies, I thought that pitch data / statcast data was pretty well accepted as useful data points and the closest we have to predictive numbers. Won't use it again on the main board.

I'll stop now and let you have the last word if you want it though because there is no chance the Sox are acquiring Corbin Burnes in the next several months.
Yeah, that's why I've been talking about 1 year+ on Burnes.

Statcast is great & I use Savant all the time to sort through my thoughts on pitchers. Just ranking how many categories one player is better than another in is not a meaningful way to parse that data, though.
 

nvalvo

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The K rate for Dalbec is so brutal I'm not sure we can expect much beyond maybe what he did in 2021. I think he would be an easier option if he wasn't a bad defender. There's nothing to fall back on if he comes up and whiffs at a 35-40% rate in the majors which is a very real possibility given his AAA K rate....at least a plus defender would give you a little more cushion to allow him a longer leash.

There's a possibility he turns into a Miguel Sano type or Kyle Schwarber, but how much leash do you give him to find out if you are in contention?
I don't disagree with any of this. He will most likely have a 35-40% K rate in the majors, almost certainly. But if he can be the .240/.310/.510 guy he was across 2020 and 2021 (which he did with those K rates!), well, that's pretty interesting.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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There's a 0% chance of the Sox matching up on a Bieber deal anyway. Cleveland has Arias, Freeman, then five more middle infielders among their top 20 prospects, 4 of those are already on the 40 man roster. They also have just one infield spot that isn't already covered for the next 5 years, so they have no interest in infield prospects.

Cleveland needs to leverage Bieber to get an outfielder with power potential (preferably right-handed)... they also won't trade him without getting someone who can immediately show a return at the major league level. Baltimore or Arizona would be the clearest matches for a deal if they're interested.
 

jon abbey

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Ohtani's contract size will be limited by what is insurable. A team cannot bet the franchise on ACLs, UCLs, labrums and rotator cuffs. If the contract cannot be substantially offset by insurance, it won’t happen.
That’s not going to stop Steve Cohen if he decides he wants Ohtani, no matter the cost.
 

TFisNEXT

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I don't disagree with any of this. He will most likely have a 35-40% K rate in the majors, almost certainly. But if he can be the .240/.310/.510 guy he was across 2020 and 2021 (which he did with those K rates!), well, that's pretty interesting.
Yeah Sano and guys like Javier Baez and Matt Chapman have pulled off the 33-36% K rate with SLG numbers in the high 4s/low 5a and OBP in the low/mid 3s. Joey gallo too.

It’s just that those guys are fairly rare on a consistent basis. Most of the time, you can’t survive consistently as a productive hitter with those K rates. Dalbec did it in the abbreviated 2020 and for half a season in 2021, but otherwise he’s struggled. Doesn’t mean he can’t find a way to be a little more consistent but it’s inherently hard when you whiff so much. I’m just not sure the Red Sox have the patience for it when he can’t play defense and we already have a superior (and younger) option at 1B as it is in Casas. Dalbec really doesn’t have anywhere to play since DH is mostly occupied by Turner and sometimes Yoshida.
 

simplicio

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If Ohtani gets significantly more than a superstar one way player (Judge/Betts/Trout tier), it's going to be due to marketability and/or an owner gone wild. The on-field product simply isn't twice as valuable as a regular star.
 

JM3

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Not twice as valuable... but he has been by far the most valuable player in baseball so far this year in both bWAR (5.0, 2nd: Stroman 4.0) & fWAR (4.5, 2nd: Carroll 3.5).
 

biollante

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I doubt we would get Ohtani. I think Dead and Company are more likely to play You Can Call me Al on Saturday night. Right now, the goal of management is middle to cheap players, except Devers, and hope they make the playoffs somehow as a wild card. Time to suck the juice out of Fenway and its fans.
 

YTF

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I doubt we would get Ohtani. I think Dead and Company are more likely to play You Can Call me Al on Saturday night. Right now, the goal of management is middle to cheap players, except Devers, and hope they make the playoffs somehow as a wild card. Time to suck the juice out of Fenway and its fans.
Seriously, that last sentence is just fucking stupid.
 

simplicio

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Not twice as valuable... but he has been by far the most valuable player in baseball so far this year in both bWAR (5.0, 2nd: Stroman 4.0) & fWAR (4.5, 2nd: Carroll 3.5).
Sure, it looks like his third consecutive year of excellence. He's an excellent player with a unique skillset.

But he's not so much better than everyone else that you pay him like he's from a different galaxy. His best year by fWAR (9.5 last year) is the 6th highest since 2012. That's elite! But it's not "take Mookie's contract and double the AAV" territory. His 2nd best year (8.0 in 2021) led all of baseball. That's also elite! But it's also been surpassed by Mike Trout every single time Mike Trout has played a full season of baseball.

So again, give him a contract like a top 5 player, cause he definitely is. But if he gets one like two top 5 players, that's a marketing/ego decision, not a baseball one.
 

JM3

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Sure, it looks like his third consecutive year of excellence. He's an excellent player with a unique skillset.

But he's not so much better than everyone else that you pay him like he's from a different galaxy. His best year by fWAR (9.5 last year) is the 6th highest since 2012. That's elite! But it's not "take Mookie's contract and double the AAV" territory. His 2nd best year (8.0 in 2021) led all of baseball. That's also elite! But it's also been surpassed by Mike Trout every single time Mike Trout has played a full season of baseball.

So again, give him a contract like a top 5 player, cause he definitely is. But if he gets one like two top 5 players, that's a marketing/ego decision, not a baseball one.
Well, Mookie & Trout's contracts are older now. Let's compare to last off season.

Aaron Judge just got 9/$360m. Ohtani is 15 months younger than Judge was last year when he signed his new deal.

So apples to apples we're at 10/$400m. What do we think is fair from that point?
 

simplicio

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Isn't Gerrit Cole's contract the better comp? Ohtani's value is as a starter who can DH, not the other way around (ie the risk in his contract is that the bulk of his value is tied up in his ability to continue starting for the next decade). Cole got 9/324 (36 per) going into his age 29 season; maybe 4 years of inflation brings that closer to the 40/yr Judge got anyway, but I think it's important to view this as primarily a starter's contract, especially as we're looking at a pitcher's injury risk dictating how much of it he actually gets to play.

If the question is how far beyond that you go (years or AAV), I honestly think it shouldn't be much. Cole obviously can't become a DH if he has to be moved to the pen in his mid 30s, but he was also a much better, much more reliable pitcher when he got his deal. He'd made 32+ starts with 200+ IP in four of the five previous years, both marks Ohtani has never come close to reaching.

I don't mean to undersell his bat here, it's really really really good. But we also don't go handing out 40m/yr contracts to DHs for a reason.

So what's fair beyond that level, an extra year? An extra 50m? My guess is the marketing math adds an extra 100m and he ends up around 500m total.
 

jon abbey

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Well, Mookie & Trout's contracts are older now. Let's compare to last off season.

Aaron Judge just got 9/$360m. Ohtani is 15 months younger than Judge was last year when he signed his new deal.

So apples to apples we're at 10/$400m. What do we think is fair from that point?
The Padres offered Judge at least 12/415, and were supposedly prepared to go higher if he was genuinely interested. Cole also could have gotten more if he didn’t essentially pick the Yankees over the Dodgers, then the Dodgers stopped increasing their offer.

Ohtani got absolutely screwed by the CBA that was put in place the year before he came over, the new restrictions on Japanese players probably cost him $200M on his initial deal. If he chooses a handful of ‘finalists’ and tells them “I will be happy in any of these situations, I will go to the highest bidder”, that’s when I see it maybe getting to 12/720 and him making back the money he should have been making for his whole career thus far.
 

beautokyo

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That’s not going to stop Steve Cohen if he decides he wants Ohtani, no matter the cost.
Two things. Does Otani want to go to the east coast? This only one person (maybe two people know). No matter the contract cost, the Japanese advertising he brings with him is outrageous dollars.
 

YTF

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Isn't Gerrit Cole's contract the better comp? Ohtani's value is as a starter who can DH, not the other way around (ie the risk in his contract is that the bulk of his value is tied up in his ability to continue starting for the next decade). Cole got 9/324 (36 per) going into his age 29 season; maybe 4 years of inflation brings that closer to the 40/yr Judge got anyway, but I think it's important to view this as primarily a starter's contract, especially as we're looking at a pitcher's injury risk dictating how much of it he actually gets to play.

If the question is how far beyond that you go (years or AAV), I honestly think it shouldn't be much. Cole obviously can't become a DH if he has to be moved to the pen in his mid 30s, but he was also a much better, much more reliable pitcher when he got his deal. He'd made 32+ starts with 200+ IP in four of the five previous years, both marks Ohtani has never come close to reaching.

I don't mean to undersell his bat here, it's really really really good. But we also don't go handing out 40m/yr contracts to DHs for a reason.


So what's fair beyond that level, an extra year? An extra 50m? My guess is the marketing math adds an extra 100m and he ends up around 500m total.
Let me start by saying that I have no earthly idea as to how this man should be paid. Not only CAN Ohtani DH, but he IS the DH. While he's not averaged 32+ starts like Cole, he did make 28 starts last season and is on pace for 30-31 this season. Add to that, he plays in nearly every game.

2021 158 GP, 537 AB, 46 HR, 100 RBI, .257/.372/.592
2022 157 GP, 586 AB, 34 HR, 95 RBI, .273/.376/.519
2023 75 GP, 289 AB, 25 HR, 59 RBI, .298/.391/.630 (Angels have played 77 games to date)

 

Benj4ever

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Two things. Does Otani want to go to the east coast? This only one person (maybe two people know). No matter the contract cost, the Japanese advertising he brings with him is outrageous dollars.
FWIW, Last season I was watching a Seattle - Anaheim game and the Seattle announcers said Ohtani wanted to stay on the West Coast so his Japanese fans could still watch him.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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If Ohtani could no longer pitch, and assuming his arm hasn’t completely fallen off, why wouldn’t he move to LF or 1B? I thought he only DHs to protect his pitching arm from having to make unscheduled throws, not because he can’t field. I guess my point is he’d be a $40M+ LF/1B, not a DH.
 

YTF

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If Ohtani could no longer pitch, and assuming his arm hasn’t completely fallen off, why wouldn’t he move to LF or 1B? I thought he only DHs to protect his pitching arm from having to make unscheduled throws, not because he can’t field. I guess my point is he’d be a $40M+ LF/1B, not a DH.
Yes, this along with the idea that the wear and tear of fielding a position everyday increases the chance of a non pitching related injury.
 

nvalvo

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FWIW, Last season I was watching a Seattle - Anaheim game and the Seattle announcers said Ohtani wanted to stay on the West Coast so his Japanese fans could still watch him.
West Coast 7 PM is 11 AM in Tokyo. East Coast is 8 AM.

I wonder which is better for an off-peak viewership. I guess it's a question of whether you want to catch a few innings of a west coast game on your phone on your lunch break, or a few frames on your phone on your morning commute to work or school.
 

beautokyo

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West Coast 7 PM is 11 AM in Tokyo. East Coast is 8 AM.

I wonder which is better for an off-peak viewership. I guess it's a question of whether you want to catch a few innings of a west coast game on your phone on your lunch break, or a few frames on your phone on your morning commute to work or school.
There's constant replays/highlights throughout the day in Tokyo about him. I think it's six of one, half dozen the other as far as playing time goes. Comes down to winning team environment + location if I'm in his shoes. Masa btw has picked up a game reply here and there.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Does Ohtani have a no-trade, limited or otherwise? If not, it won't matter what he wants if the Angels get a great deal for him from an East Coast team and nothing within shouting distance from any team on the West Coast or closer to than not. Of course, he may just be a rental and I don't think any GM that acquires him is probably going to make an offer based on Ohtani's willingness to sign an extension. If he won't even consider it, then one would assume the offer will be a little pared down.
 

RobertS975

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Does anyone here know any facts about the insuring of sports contracts? I know that virtually every player with a meaningful MLB contract sought insurance for their contract before playing in the WBC last March. And some players ( like Kershaw) ended up not playing in the WBC because they were deemed uninsurable.

I suspect that what transpired with Carlos Correa last off season with the initial announcement of $350M with the Giants and then $315M with the Mets was that those teams were unable to get adequate insurance for those contracts rather than anything new found on his physical.

Of course, getting insurance mitigation on a contract doesn't change the salary cap hit, but it helps the team's balance sheet. I don't want to get too hung up on the insurance, but it must play a role in a team's willingness to shell out big long term bucks.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Does Ohtani have a no-trade, limited or otherwise? If not, it won't matter what he wants if the Angels get a great deal for him from an East Coast team and nothing within shouting distance from any team on the West Coast or closer to than not. Of course, he may just be a rental and I don't think any GM that acquires him is probably going to make an offer based on Ohtani's willingness to sign an extension. If he won't even consider it, then one would assume the offer will be a little pared down.
He has no no-trade. He's on a standard 1-year, arbitration-avoiding contract. But why would the Angels consider trading him? They're very much in the playoff hunt. Judging by their dealings last night, they plan to be buyers not sellers.
 

YTF

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Does Ohtani have a no-trade, limited or otherwise? If not, it won't matter what he wants if the Angels get a great deal for him from an East Coast team and nothing within shouting distance from any team on the West Coast or closer to than not. Of course, he may just be a rental and I don't think any GM that acquires him is probably going to make an offer based on Ohtani's willingness to sign an extension. If he won't even consider it, then one would assume the offer will be a little pared down.
ATM, I don't see the Angels moving him unless they flat out see no path to him returning and completely fall out of playoff contention. Regardless as to his preference for 2024, he'll still command a haul at the deadline. In Ohtani you're getting a top flight pitcher who will start 8-10 games (plus playoffs) AND one of the most feared hitters in the game who will be penciled into the lineup nearly every day. Ohtani's unique skill set would make him the most unique deadline acquisition ever.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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FWIW, I think we're going to go hard for Soto, if the Padres can't re-sign him. His long window of superstardom lines up perfectly with our next prospect core' maturation. It's possible we sign Yamamoto, but most of next winter's free agents are uninteresting, and I don't think we otherwise make a real spending splash until 2025.
He won’t reach free agency. I’ll believe the Padres have a limit on spending when I see it. They’ll extend him between now and the ‘24 deadline and probably sign Ohtani to boot.
 

Archer1979

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He has no no-trade. He's on a standard 1-year, arbitration-avoiding contract. But why would the Angels consider trading him? They're very much in the playoff hunt. Judging by their dealings last night, they plan to be buyers not sellers.
Not only in the playoff-hunt, but only a half game behind a now-Judge-less NYY team for the third wild-card spot and tied with Toronto. Aside from NY, only other above .500 teams are Houston and Boston.

Ohtani's not going anywhere.
 
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HangingW/ScottCooper

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I think Paxton and Duvall get dealt, maybe Kike as well.

I suspect the mandate from above for Bloom was to get under the cap for 2023 with an eye of competing in 2024 and beyond. I can't see them eyeing Ohtani, but I suspect Yoshinobu Yamamato s their primary offseason target. Add the requisite veteran starter on a short term deal, a solid middle infielder (maybe Merrifield or Javy Baez if they opt out) and a couple of contract extensions (Verdugo?) and it seems like a viable plan.
 

bosockboy

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I think Paxton and Duvall get dealt, maybe Kike as well.

I suspect the mandate from above for Bloom was to get under the cap for 2023 with an eye of competing in 2024 and beyond. I can't see them eyeing Ohtani, but I suspect Yoshinobu Yamamato s their primary offseason target. Add the requisite veteran starter on a short term deal, a solid middle infielder (maybe Merrifield or Javy Baez if they opt out) and a couple of contract extensions (Verdugo?) and it seems like a viable plan.
If they are 3 games out or less that’s tough to do.
 

moondog80

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If they are 3 games out or less that’s tough to do.
Teams with better postseason shots have become sellers. The problem, with Duvall and Kike anyway, is that I think the returns would be so small that they would be better off keeping them and their puncher's chance at the postseason (if in fact that's where the stand at that point).

Paxton, he could be a different story.
 

jon abbey

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BOS plays OAK six times in the next 24 days. That brings it to July 19th, seemingly a good point for Chaim etc. to take stock and decide what to do at the trade deadline.
 

jbupstate

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….Add the requisite veteran starter on a short term deal, a solid middle infielder (maybe Merrifield or Javy Baez if they opt out) and a couple of contract extensions (Verdugo?) and it seems like a viable plan.
What makes Merrifield or Báez solid middle infield acquisitions for the Sox? Both are name brands but are not cheap and low key stink.

Story isn’t going anywhere. Why would you pay one of those guys versus going with somebody on the current 40 man? Valdez, Hamilton or Kike at 2B. Yorke is hitting well in Portland, Mayer is in AA and Rafaela is now in AAA.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Teams with better postseason shots have become sellers. The problem, with Duvall and Kike anyway, is that I think the returns would be so small that they would be better off keeping them and their puncher's chance at the postseason (if in fact that's where the stand at that point).

Paxton, he could be a different story.

While I agree that pieces like Duvall, Kike, etc are not going to return much of anything in terms of value, I think the bigger problem with keeping players like Duvall and Kike, in this type of scenario, is the opportunity cost to get some younger players more meaningful reps to get them started on the cycle of adjustments needed to be viable MLB contributors (or find out if they have that ability to stick in the first place) when the Red Sox could actually be a good team a year or so down the road.

If we believe that the MLB game is a series of adjustments - which I think most of us do - I think it's far better to continue guys like Duran or pick anyone from Worcester on that path as opposed to continuing to trot out guys like Duvall, Kike, Arroyo, etc. There is also, of course, the chance that said young players COULD be better. Even if they're not (assuming they're not) let them work on those refinements at the highest level with the best coaching.

Paxton, I still would like to see the team sell if they can get actual good prospects for him, especially since they seem to have dodged an injury (Though I will say that were I the GM of another team, I'd be very hesitant to give up anything of value for Paxton by taking higher stock of 8 games this season vs 3 years of injuries when talking about a 34 year old pitcher). However the bigger issue with Paxton and his position as opposed to Duvall, Kike, Turner and Arroyo is that there isn't really anyone in Worster that would warrant just getting rid of him to get more time for younger players.

Trotting out a line up of something like Verdugo - OF, Turner - DH, Devers - 3b, Duvall - OF, Yoshida - OF, Casas - 1b, Arroyo - 2b, Hernandez - SS, Wong - C isn't going to win a lot of baseball games at the MLB level in 2023 and it's also going to "cost" the team by not getting a chance to look at younger players.

Trotting out a line up of something like Duran - OF, Verdugo - OF, Devers - 3b, Yoshida - DH, Casas - 1b, Valdez - 2b, Wong - C, Hamilton/Rafaela - SS; Abreu/Rafaela - OF also isn't likely going to win a lot of baseball games at the MLB level in 2023 (or it could, who knows, that is the "joy" of unknown prospects vs veterans whom are already not winning) but it could help the team get a jump start on maybe making it a 2024-2030 window instead of 2025-2030.


To be clear, I'd still absolutely deal Paxton if there is a GM out there whom would give you legitimate prospects / pieces toward 2024 and beyond for him. I'm just not overly confident there would be AND it's not like you have high minors pitching prospects knocking at the door the way you do in some of the positional pieces.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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What makes Merrifield or Báez solid middle infield acquisitions for the Sox? Both are name brands but are not cheap and low key stink.

Story isn’t going anywhere. Why would you pay one of those guys versus going with somebody on the current 40 man? Valdez, Hamilton or Kike at 2B. Yorke is hitting well in Portland, Mayer is in AA and Rafaela is now in AAA.
You're probably right. At this point I suspect they've penciled Rafaela in for a starting job next year. I just kind of envisioned him as a super sub because I don't think the bat is there. There were definitely a lot of people clamoring for Baez especially as a bounce back candidate.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Paxton's value could be sky-high and could also crash to nothing on an injury. Bloom has a tough decision every day going forward here.
 

E5 Yaz

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Paxton's value could be sky-high and could also crash to nothing on an injury. Bloom has a tough decision every day going forward here.
PeteAbe suggesting on Twitter that tonight's great performance might be an enticement to move quickly
 

joe dokes

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PeteAbe suggesting on Twitter that tonight's great performance might be an enticement to move quickly
These "sell-high NOW" things always seem to presume that the other GMs have been in a cave for the last 3 months.
 

JM3

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If someone makes them an offer they can't refuse, they shouldn't refuse it. Not sure what to make of Walter being held back yesterday & pitching 2 innings of relief today.

When you only have 4 pitchers you're comfortable starting, trading 1 of them if a pretty big white flag, but that's ok if the offer is right.
 

simplicio

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Phone lines should be open right now, but there are probably 20 teams that want him; let the offers marinate.