The 2023 Trade Deadline: Scenarios

[chawson]

Well, here’s where Bloom needs to earn his check. If Paxton will resign for 2/$50 plus a vesting option, we should probably do that. If Paxton (perhaps along with Duvall) will return a haul from (say) the Reds’ stacked farm system, maybe that’s the move. BTV is hardly gospel, but it doesn't buy that Paxton or even Paxton+Duvall is really bringing back an amazing package.

We can speculate about what extension he might accept or what he’d return in trade, but it’s up to the FO to actually work the phones and figure out where the market is.

I would probably do 2/$50 with a vesting option if Paxton would. 2/$50 is what Verlander got (pre-CBA) returning from major surgery as a 39 year old.

Put another way, there is no middle-tier FA SP I would rather give 2/$50M to than Paxton. Not Stroman, Ryu, Morton, Pérez, Lynn, Wood, Cobb or even Scherzer. There’s Gray, Snell and Montgomery, but they don’t seem like guys we’d outbid the field for.

Plus, after the reported spurnings from Eflin and the like, the bird in the hand factor is kind of important and all that.

Ohtani aside, a few of the upper-tier guys have developed serious questions too. Urias is having a bad enough year that he may even accept a QO. Nola has taken a step back. Flaherty has been hurt and diminished. Giolito has fallen off some.

 

[Benj4ever]

How many consecutive starts where he goes deep is enough of a string? Not being snarky. Right now, he's gone 6+ in four of his last five starts. The fifth being one where he was at 63 pitches through four innings (so on pace for 6+) before he left early with knee soreness that clearly didn't linger or affect his next start. Five probably isn't enough to convince anyone. I'm curious what would be.

I don't think we should be concerned about another Sale extension situation here. Paxton is 34. No one's giving him a 4-5 year deal. The AAV can be debated, but I think two years plus an option is likely what Paxton is going to get. My guess is the sooner the Sox offer it, the lower the dollar amount he'd take is likely to be.

I believe the bolded statements are the key here. It may be just a knee-jerk reaction, but I'd like a larger sample size (3-4 more starts) before talking $20 plus. However, you make a good point about getting a good deal sooner, rather than later. So (and this is entirely speculative), if I think I can get a significantly better deal ($5/year) by getting a deal done sooner, I'd go for it. If it doesn't make much difference ( < $3/year) I'd just as soon wait and gather some more information.

 

[iddoc]

He has always been a guy who misses time every year with non-catastrophic injuries, just like this year. About 140 IP per year is probably his realistic ceiling. >20M per year seems a bit much, though our options are limited without a more promising pipeline from the high minors.

 

[JM3]

Eh Urías was dealing with a hamstring injury for a while & then hadn't pitched since mid-May before yesterday.

Also feels like they rushed him back after a 4 inning rehab in A ball. I'd be cool buying low on him if that's an option. Paxton for Urías plus would be intriguing to me, except then we'd lose the ability to QO I believe.

 

[nvalvo]

Reading this thread, I feel like either I'm way off base with what starting pitching costs or everybody else is.

I arrived at that number by comparing it to recent deals of similar length for 30+ high-end pitchers with notable injury histories.

Paxton: age 34, 117 career ERA+ | I proposed 2/$50, structured as two years at $20, followed by a vesting option at $20 with a $10 buyout.

DeGrom: 35, 155 | 5/$185 – Yeah, I don't know that this was a great idea.
Verlander:40, 132 | 2/$86, with a $34m vesting option — the gold-plated version of the deal I'm proposing for Paxton.
Eovaldi: 33, 104 | 2/$34, with a $20m vesting option — the brass-plated version of the deal I'm proposing for Paxton.
Kershaw: 35, 157 | 1/$20m – But what would he have gotten if he had actually gone on the open market?
Quintana: 33, 110 | 2/$26m — Kind of in the Eovaldi tier. Hasn't pitched yet this season.
Wacha: 31, 102 | 4/$26m – I think some people in the thread think that this is a comp, but it really isn't.
Manaea: 31, 99 | 2/$25m — Similar to Wacha, but clearly has a better agent.

So yeah, I'm slotting Paxton in between Verlander and Eovaldi — closer to Eovaldi.

 

[chrisfont9]

Eh Urías was dealing with a hamstring injury for a while & then hadn't pitched since mid-May before yesterday.

Also feels like they rushed him back after a 4 inning rehab in A ball. I'd be cool buying low on him if that's an option. Paxton for Urías plus would be intriguing to me, except then we'd lose the ability to QO I believe.

Dodgers probably wouldn't do that, would they? They would be giving up on re-signing Urias in that scenario.

He has always been a guy who misses time every year with non-catastrophic injuries, just like this year. About 140 IP per year is probably his realistic ceiling. >20M per year seems a bit much, though our options are limited without a more promising pipeline from the high minors.

Kiké + Duvall + Mondesí = $20m coming off the books. I don't hate it. We all know what the risks are but if you have Crawford as a swing option then it's just money.
[Edit] Actually Kluber too... Kiké + Kluber = -$20m

 

[JM3]

Dodgers probably wouldn't do that, would they? They would be giving up on re-signing Urias in that scenario.

Doubt either team would do it. But the Dodgers are probably already prepared for someone to pay Urías dramatically more than they want to.

Both teams lose their QO-ability in that scenario I'm pretty sure so it really only makes sense for either team if they line up a long term deal with the other team's player.

Red Sox have like $80m to spend this off season. Whether they pay Paxton $20m or $25m is probably less important than how far out they go with the contract.

 

[chawson]

Eh Urías was dealing with a hamstring injury for a while & then hadn't pitched since mid-May before yesterday.

Also feels like they rushed him back after a 4 inning rehab in A ball. I'd be cool buying low on him if that's an option. Paxton for Urías plus would be intriguing to me, except then we'd lose the ability to QO I believe.

Yeah I don’t doubt Urias can return to form, but maybe not convincingly so this year? He’s been giving up bombs at a Kluberesque rate.

Either way, I’m not wild about him long-term. He seems rather diminutive, already sitting 93 with the fastball in his age-25 season, and could fall into soft-tossing lefty status fairly quickly.

If there’s one thing Sox starting pitchers have in common, it’s that they’re generally horses.

Paxton, Sale, Wacha - 6’6” (Eflin is also 6’6”)
Hill, Houck, Pivetta, Whitlock - 6’5” (Morton, reportedly a perennial Sox target for awhile, is 6’5”)
Gambrell, Kluber, Winckowski - 6’4”
Drohan, Mata - 6’3”
Eovaldi, Richards, Rodriguez, Seabold, Walter - 6’2”
Bello, Crawford - 6’1”

Not all these guys are Bloom acquisitions, and not all our starting pitchers the last few years are taller than average. Of course, MLB pitchers tend to be taller than average people, too. But this seems like slightly more than random data to me.

I think it’s nearly impossible to find starting pitchers without injury risk, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the FO found some negative correlation with height. Or maybe it’s about extension and release point? Or both? Sox pitching staffs have been top 5 in MLB in release extension the last few years, and the Rays are too.

If any of this has indication, the Sox will pass on Urias and Yamamoto and instead target Montgomery or Snell, or, I think more likely, sign (and try to fix) Giolito, Manaea or Flaherty.

 

[JM3]

Their 2 cornerstones are both 6'1.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

The Sox have the QO in their pocket, so I don't see the need to offer Paxton an extension for more than 20 million per year. At his age, one more year would be good, 2 would be okay, and they shouldn't offer more than that unless it's a club option.
Signing him to a 2-year deal under 20 million is probably the best case scenario, followed by bringing him back on the QO for 20 million or whatever for one more year. Trading him at the deadline for a prospect would be the worst option of the 3 IMO, as teams aren't likely going to give up a difference-making prospect for 2 months of an old pitcher with a long track record of injuries.

 

[simplicio]

Whitlock going down again feels like an inflection point. They can probably get through his next three scheduled starts with Pivetta by lining up OAK/OAK/NYM, but if they want to compete, there's no way they can stand pat with their in-house starting options, is there?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Whitlock going down again feels like an inflection point. They can probably get through his next three scheduled starts with Pivetta by lining up OAK/OAK/NYM, but if they want to compete, there's no way they can stand pat with their in-house starting options, is there?

Kinda depends on the prognosis, no? If it's similar to the last time and all he needs is a couple weeks off and he's back within a month, they can probably survive Whitlock's absence with Pivetta filling in. If it's more serious and he's lost for a while, then yeah, they might need to make a bigger move.

 

[simplicio]

Kinda depends on the prognosis, no? If it's similar to the last time and all he needs is a couple weeks off and he's back within a month, they can probably survive Whitlock's absence with Pivetta filling in. If it's more serious and he's lost for a while, then yeah, they might need to make a bigger move.

But can we keep relying on him being a starter even if he comes back quickly? That hasn't exactly been going great.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

The Sox have the QO in their pocket, so I don't see the need to offer Paxton an extension for more than 20 million per year. At his age, one more year would be good, 2 would be okay, and they shouldn't offer more than that unless it's a club option.
Signing him to a 2-year deal under 20 million is probably the best case scenario, followed by bringing him back on the QO for 20 million or whatever for one more year. Trading him at the deadline for a prospect would be the worst option of the 3 IMO, as teams aren't likely going to give up a difference-making prospect for 2 months of an old pitcher with a long track record of injuries.

Yeah, if they can extend a QO, then that’s the route to go IMO - assuming Paxton can make it three more months without getting hurt again. For a 34 yo whose seasonal high water mark is 160.3 IP, and who’s a good not great pitcher when healthy, I’m not offering him $50M guaranteed. $35m for two years with incentives? Maybe. If he finishes the year healthy.

 

[grepal]

Kinda depends on the prognosis, no? If it's similar to the last time and all he needs is a couple weeks off and he's back within a month, they can probably survive Whitlock's absence with Pivetta filling in. If it's more serious and he's lost for a while, then yeah, they might need to make a bigger move.

Well, at least we kept Kluber

 

[PapnMillsy]

Yeah I don’t doubt Urias can return to form, but maybe not convincingly so this year? He’s been giving up bombs at a Kluberesque rate.

Either way, I’m not wild about him long-term. He seems rather diminutive, already sitting 93 with the fastball in his age-25 season, and could fall into soft-tossing lefty status fairly quickly.

If there’s one thing Sox starting pitchers have in common, it’s that they’re generally horses.

Paxton, Wacha - 6’6” (Eflin is also 6’6”)
Hill, Houck, Pivetta, Sale, Whitlock - 6’5” (Morton, reportedly a perennial Sox target for awhile, is 6’5”)
Gambrell, Kluber, Winckowski - 6’4”
Drohan, Mata - 6’3”
Eovaldi, Richards, Rodriguez, Seabold, Walter - 6’2”
Bello, Crawford - 6’1”

Not all these guys are Bloom acquisitions, and not all our starting pitchers the last few years are taller than average. Of course, MLB pitchers tend to be taller than average people, too. But this seems like slightly more than random data to me.

I think it’s nearly impossible to find starting pitchers without injury risk, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the FO found some negative correlation with height. Or maybe it’s about extension and release point? Or both? Sox pitching staffs have been top 5 in MLB in release extension the last few years, and the Rays are too.

If any of this has indication, the Sox will pass on Urias and Yamamoto and instead target Montgomery or Snell, or, I think more likely, sign (and try to fix) Giolito, Manaea or Flaherty.

Nitpicking here, but Chris Sale is 6’6” and has been listed as such his entire career.

 

[gryoung]

With the Dodgers losing another starting pitcher, could they be a partner on a Paxton trade? They do have a pretty solid farm system with a couple of catching prospects.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

With the Dodgers losing another starting pitcher, could they be a partner on a Paxton trade? They do have a pretty solid farm system with a couple of catching prospects.

This is the team I keep coming back to as well. They could also - ostensibly at least - have use for Duvall as another OF option in a way to try and increase return.

Even as someone whom wants to deal Paxton, I admit that is going to be tough since right now he is one of only three capable starting pitchers on the active roster (Paternity list, aside). You almost HAVE to get pitching back from the high minors level if you want to deal him because, frankly, someone needs to start the games. I'd still deal him if you can get really good value, but unless someone is willing to over pay, they're almost forced to hold Paxton for the time being.


As you mentioned, they have both Cartaya (2) and Rushing (4) as catchers in their top 10 from MLB - other names I'd be interested in from the Dodgers (because from their perspective Miller and Sheehan would assuredly be off the table) would include:
Nick Frasso (9) - 24 yr old SP in AA
River Ryan (12) - 24 yr old SP in AA
Maddux Bruns (16) - 21 yr old SP in A+
Landon Knack (18) - 25 yr old SP in AAA.

If you could get any 2 of those 6 mentioned above for Paxton (or Paxton and Duvall), I think it would be worth it to deal Paxton, even if that means more games prominently featuring Caleb Ort and the assorted options in Worcester.

 

[Archer1979]

With the Dodgers losing another starting pitcher, could they be a partner on a Paxton trade? They do have a pretty solid farm system with a couple of catching prospects.

Why would the Sox want a catching prospect? They have one of the better young catchers in the league on their roster with a back up who is an adequate backup (although currently on the IL)? You'd jus tbe creating a logjam.

To me, a better match would be to find a team with some stud pitching prospects. They need to get some organizational depth there if they want to follow the TB model.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Why would any team trade major league ready pitching for a few months of Paxton, though? And long term, do the Sox really need more AAA/AAAA types who have to be placed on the 40-man? I think it’s hard to find a match; I’d expect they’d be more likely to get lower level guys who don’t need to be rostered for a bit.

 

[simplicio]

Why would the Sox want a catching prospect? They have one of the better young catchers in the league on their roster with a back up who is an adequate backup (although currently on the IL)? You'd jus tbe creating a logjam.

To me, a better match would be to find a team with some stud pitching prospects. They need to get some organizational depth there if they want to follow the TB model.

We've been watching exactly why they want more catching depth: if either of their main guys goes down you have Caleb Hamilton in Boston, and that's a bad situation.

Cartaya's bat has also been scouted as the real deal, which is definitely not something we've been getting from Wong and McGuire this year.

 

[Archer1979]

Why would any team trade major league ready pitching for a few months of Paxton, though? And long term, do the Sox really need more AAA/AAAA types who have to be placed on the 40-man? I think it’s hard to find a match; I’d expect they’d be more likely to get lower level guys who don’t need to be rostered for a bit.

Pie in the sky hope would be like a Mike Boddicker for Curt Schiling/Brady Anderson-type deal. Realistically, they should be able to get an AA pitching prospect. Part of the process is looking for teams that are close, hungry, and desperate.

 

[JM3]

We've been watching exactly why they want more catching depth: if either of their main guys goes down you have Caleb Hamilton in Boston, and that's a bad situation.

Cartaya's bat has also been scouted as the real deal, which is definitely not something we've been getting from Wong and McGuire this year.

Caleb Hamilton is on the roster because they don't care if they lose him when McGuire gets back, not because he's their best option.

 

[BaseballJones]

Wong has been really good overall. In just 65 games he's provided 1.4 bWAR. That's 9th in all of MLB at the catcher position. His bat isn't very good but he more than makes up for it defensively. All he needs is to improve at the plate just a little and he becomes an elite player at the position.

It's always nice to have more good players than fewer, but Wong hasn't been anything but a major plus for this team this year. And he should be for a long time.

 

[Archer1979]

Wong has been really good overall. In just 65 games he's provided 1.4 bWAR. That's 9th in all of MLB at the catcher position. His bat isn't very good but he more than makes up for it defensively. All he needs is to improve at the plate just a little and he becomes an elite player at the position.

It's always nice to have more good players than fewer, but Wong hasn't been anything but a major plus for this team this year. And he should be for a long time.

And really, the only thing you're doing in trading Paxton for catching, is making a deal that makes Wong or McGuire available for a trade. You essentially have to make a value judgment of whether a catcher with a better bat and what you can get for either Wong/McGuire vs. what you could have gotten for Paxton. I value good pitching which is why I would go that route.

 

[simplicio]

Caleb Hamilton is on the roster because they don't care if they lose him when McGuire gets back, but because he's their best option.

You say that like we have better options just sitting around, is that supposed to be Stephen Scott?

Lacks mobility and clearly looks like someone who just started playing the position behind the plate. Receiving is a work in progress and is still getting comfortable blocking balls in the dirt.

I'll pass?

 

[BravesField]

Why would the Sox want a catching prospect? They have one of the better young catchers in the league on their roster with a back up who is an adequate backup (although currently on the IL)? You'd jus tbe creating a logjam.

To me, a better match would be to find a team with some stud pitching prospects. They need to get some organizational depth there if they want to follow the TB model.

I have no idea what is easier to scout, catchers or pitchers. If we did receive good catching prospects in any deal, I would assume they would be easy to flip in another offseason deal.

 

[Fishy1]

Yeah, the Sox also have Stephen Scott and Ronaldo Hernandez at AAA, both of who profile as worse defenders than Wong/Mcguire but potentially better bats, each with their own strengths (Scott has an elite eye, some pop, but has had low BABIPs for years now, Ronaldo a better hit/power tool)

I think the Red Sox probably value depth in pitching in the minors right now more than position player depth. They've got a glut of infielders/outfielders at AAA/AA who profile as at least part-time major leaguers, but far fewer pitching prospects.

 

[Fishy1]

You say that like we have better options just sitting around, is that supposed to be Stephen Scott?



I'll pass?

Those scouting reports are quite old now.

An update from fangraphs as of June 12:

:

And on Hernandez:


I would note that Hernandez has actually shown a very good BB rate this year at AAA since Fangraphs wrote this, nearly tripling his BB rate to 11% (which would profile as above average if he sustained it in the majors). He's getting murdered by his BABIP this year, so I think he's a real candidate for an offensive breakout if he can sustain the plate discipline.

 

[Archer1979]

I have no idea what is easier to scout, catchers or pitchers. If we did receive good catching prospects in any deal, I would assume they would be easy to flip in another offseason deal.

Its a value thing to me. I'd rather have good, young starting pitching and lots of it in the minors. That said, I remember meeting Dan Duquette once at his baseball camp in the Berkshires. It was part of a LL coaching baseball seminar and he gave a little spiel. It was in the Spring of 2005 to give some context. The thing that stayed with me is that good teams have a strong catcher on the field who can control the game. A good bat is a bonus. I think Wong has the foundation for that. In other words, I think the Sox are set there so why screw with one of the things that is working?

They really do need to shore up the starting pitching throughout the organization. Because so many good pitchers don't make it out of the minors, the more the better.

 

[JM3]

You say that like we have better options just sitting around, is that supposed to be Stephen Scott?



I'll pass?

I believe that's a scouting report from over a year ago when he had actually just started regularly catching. Hernandez is also better than Hamilton. Even if he's awful at defense.

I'm not saying their existence, & guys like Nathan Hickey, Enderso Lira, Alex Erro, Johanfran Garcia, Brooks Bannon, Andruw Mussett, Elih Marrero, etc. preclude acquiring other catchers - just that the situation at catcher isn't quite as dire as the fact they called up Caleb Hamilton would suggest.

Just like they have a bunch of young, interesting, bullpen arms, but they keep bringing in retreads & cast-offs instead to avoid having to put those guys on the 40.

 

[Fishy1]

I believe that's a scouting report from over a year ago when he had actually just started regularly catching. Hernandez is also better than Hamilton. Even if he's awful at defense.

I'm not saying their existence, & guys like Nathan Hickey, Enderso Lira, Alex Erro, Johanfran Garcia, Brooks Bannon, Andruw Mussett, Elih Marrero, etc. preclude acquiring other catchers - just that the situation at catcher isn't quite as dire as the fact they called up Caleb Hamilton would suggest.

Just like they have a bunch of young, interesting, bullpen arms, but they keep bringing in retreads & cast-offs instead to avoid having to put those guys on the 40.

It is. Fangraphs, as I noted upthread, thinks they're both about average receivers at this point. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hernandez or Scott getting a cup of coffee in September or earlier if McGuire ends up being out for much longer.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Why would any team trade major league ready pitching for a few months of Paxton, though? And long term, do the Sox really need more AAA/AAAA types who have to be placed on the 40-man? I think it’s hard to find a match; I’d expect they’d be more likely to get lower level guys who don’t need to be rostered for a bit.

As to the Dodgers perspective - That's why I specifically omitted guys like Pepiot or Gavin Stone whom have already pitched in the majors. As mentioned, Knack has all of 3 games at AAA and the others are in AA or High A ball. (Granted, Sheehan jumped directly from AA to the Majors, but again, I allowed that there was no planet on which Paxton is worth Sheehan or Miller).

As to the Red Sox perspective - Only 3 of the top 30 prospects on Sox Prospects are starting pitchers in AA or above (Drohan, Mata and Walter) and because all of them have gotten their teeth kicked in at Worcester, so maybe the Red Sox might be interested in looking for new prospects who might be better? Also, I think CJ Liu is the only SP prospect inside the top 40 on SP that is in Portland and he has a 4.52ERA there, though I admit to not looking any further - though If Portland's D is atrocious with Mayer, Yorke and Meidroth, that doesn't bode well for fixing the defensive issues from within, so I'll prefer to believe that Liu is the problem and not the infield defense behind him.

Fully admit to not being a scout, but I don't feel all that great about any of those guys becoming rotation fixtures in the next couple of seasons, and the Sox seem committed to not fixing the SP problems via free agency, so I'd certainly target starting pitching. Possibly others on here feel differently about Drohan, Mata, Walter and CJ Liu - and I'd be curious as to what they're seeing? Believe me, I WANT to feel better about the 4 SP prospects we have in our top 40, so if there were advanced data or scouting reports showing these guys are a lot better than their stat lines, that would be - honestly - welcome information.

 

[JM3]

As to the Red Sox perspective - Only 3 of the top 30 prospects on Sox Prospects are starting pitchers in AA or above (Drohan, Mata and Walter) and because all of them have gotten their teeth kicked in at Worcester, so maybe the Red Sox might be interested in looking for new prospects who might be better? Also, I think CJ Liu is the only SP prospect inside the top 40 on SP that is in Portland and he has a 4.52ERA there, though I admit to not looking any further - though If Portland's D is atrocious with Mayer, Yorke and Meidroth, that doesn't bode well for fixing the defensive issues from within, so I'll prefer to believe that Liu is the problem and not the infield defense behind him.

Fully admit to not being a scout, but I don't feel all that great about any of those guys becoming rotation fixtures in the next couple of seasons, and the Sox seem committed to not fixing the SP problems via free agency, so I'd certainly target starting pitching. Possibly others on here feel differently about Drohan, Mata, Walter and CJ Liu - and I'd be curious as to what they're seeing? Believe me, I WANT to feel better about the 4 SP prospects we have in our top 40, so if there were advanced data or scouting reports showing these guys are a lot better than their stat lines, that would be - honestly - welcome information.

There are several interesting pitchers in Portland, but they're mostly about 2 years away. CJ Liu isn't one that I think is particularly interesting. SoxProspects definitely needs to update their rankings soon. I did a top 102 prospect rankings in the Minor League thread, but it wasn't particularly scientific & I did it entirely on my phone, so it is what it is.

Brian Van Belle is the closest to being Major League ready (#59 on SoxProspects). He's 26 & has a 3.00 ERA in 81 IP. Control/contact pitcher more so than a high stuff pitcher, but he competes & should move up to Worcester soon to see if he can provide replacement level MLB innings if needed.

Isaac Coffey, & especially Hunter Dobbins are guys I could see making an impact in 2 or 3 years, but they were both recently called up to Portland. Dobbins could be a decent starter & Coffey profiles more as a right-handed specialist with his delivery, even though he has been pretty impressive as a starter this year.

The absolute best pitcher at Portland, who could be helping the Red Sox right now, is Luis Guerrero, their 22 y/o closer who has a 1.09 ERA in 33 innings.

Their 3 most exciting pitching prospects, Luis Perales, Yordanny Monegro, & Wikelman Gonzalez are in A, A, & A+ respectively. Perales & Wikelman should be moving up ASAP. Monegro just moved to A ball, but he is really fun to watch & hasn't allowed a run in his 1st 2 starts in A ball.

They have some other fairly interesting low minor arms in Juan Daniel Encarnacion, Angel Bastardo, Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Dalton Rogers & a few others, but there is definitely some room for high end arms that are nearly Major League ready...& there's always room for more young guys with elite stuff.

 

[Archer1979]

Going into today, 19 teams over .500, 11 teams under .500. Assuming that .500 is the dividing line between buyers and sellers, looks like a seller's market. Same numbers if a team is within 5 games of the third wild-card spot. .500 seems like a good line of demarcation.

There are a couple of teams to watch though as a now Trout-less LAA have lost four in a row is sitting just at .500 with a mixed bag of opponents on the post-ASB schedule. Oddly enough, they don't have a game scheduled for tomorrow (Sunday). In any event, they could end up sellers.

The other team is the Mets. They've won six in a row which might give them some (false???) sense of momentum going into the ASB. It's the Mets, so anything can happen.

 

[soxhop411]

View: https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1677702249848381440?s=46

Speculation has b3egun in Boston about an Adam Duval trade. Twins vs. LHP:.219/.289/.655, worst. Whether they'd trade prospects for a rental--and Duval is a good player with pedigree--is undetermined, likely not. Maybe contract for contract

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

View: https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1677702249848381440?s=46

Speculation has b3egun in Boston about an Adam Duval trade. Twins vs. LHP:.219/.289/.655, worst. Whether they'd trade prospects for a rental--and Duval is a good player with pedigree--is undetermined, likely not. Maybe contract for contract

While Duvall is probably the only guy (perhaps Kiké too) who they could trade and not be “punting”…. I don’t see them trading him to any potential AL playoff rival.
If they do…. Then I suspect they are “punting” and Turner will also be available.
I’m sure other teams will inquire but unless it’s a great deal on Blooms end, I don’t see him providing any ammo to a rival

 

[Niastri]

While Duvall is probably the only guy (perhaps Kiké too) who they could trade and not be “punting”…. I don’t see them trading him to any potential AL playoff rival.
If they do…. Then I suspect they are “punting” and Turner will also be available.
I’m sure other teams will inquire but unless it’s a great deal on Blooms end, I don’t see him providing any ammo to a rival

I don't think it's the Twins we're worried about. We are worried about the teams ahead of us in the wild card and next year and further in the future.

If we play the Twins in the playoffs, we all would be stoked, because of how unlikely us making it there is right now.

 

[chawson]

View: https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1677702249848381440?s=46

Speculation has b3egun in Boston about an Adam Duval trade. Twins vs. LHP:.219/.289/.655, worst. Whether they'd trade prospects for a rental--and Duval is a good player with pedigree--is undetermined, likely not. Maybe contract for contract

Among established major leaguers only I could see a Duvall for Emilio Pagan swap making sense for both teams.

Outside the box a bit, I can’t say I wouldn’t be interested in Joey Gallo. Twins hitters have the highest K-rate in MLB and it seems to be frustrating the locals. Duvall strikes out a lot, but no one’s on Gallo’s level. It doesn’t make a ton of sense on its face and I think the Twins staff likes him, but it could help the Turner-at-2B experiment (with Yoshida moving to DH), and maybe give us a hedge in case Bloom gets a nice offer for Verdugo? IDK.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Among established major leaguers only I could see a Duvall for Emilio Pagan swap making sense for both teams.

Outside the box a bit, I can’t say I wouldn’t be interested in Joey Gallo. Twins hitters have the highest K-rate in MLB and it seems to be frustrating the locals. Duvall strikes out a lot, but no one’s on Gallo’s level. It doesn’t make a ton of sense on its face and I think the Twins staff likes him, but it could help the Turner-at-2B experiment (with Yoshida moving to DH), and maybe give us a hedge in case Bloom gets a nice offer for Verdugo? IDK.

Acquiring Gallo in order to trade away Verdugo feels like a significant step backwards.

 

[chawson]

Acquiring Gallo in order to trade away Verdugo feels like a significant step backwards.

It probably would feel that way to most people, given how frustrating and K-prone Gallo is.

It would all depend on the return for Verdugo, of course. But a Gallo/Refsnyder platoon is likely as good as Verdugo at the dish this year.

vs. RHP, ‘23:
Verdugo .373 wOBA
Gallo .346 wOBA
Refsnyder .255 wOBA

vs. LHP, ‘23:
Refsnyder .414 wOBA
Verdugo .297 wOBA
Gallo .293 wOBA

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

It probably would feel that way to most people, given how frustrating and K-prone Gallo is.

It would all depend on the return for Verdugo, of course. But a Gallo/Refsnyder platoon is likely as good as Verdugo at the dish this year.

vs. RHP, ‘23:
Verdugo .373 wOBA
Gallo .346 wOBA
Refsnyder .255 wOBA

vs. LHP, ‘23:
Refsnyder .414 wOBA
Verdugo .297 wOBA
Gallo .293 wOBA

I always appreciate Chawson’s insane creativity here but no. There’s no way Gallo for Verdugo is good on any level. wOBA deez ballz!!!

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Among established major leaguers only I could see a Duvall for Emilio Pagan swap making sense for both teams.
…

For the love of everything holy in baseball, do NOT make me watch Pagan in a Red Sox uniform.

 

[nvalvo]

I don’t want to do it either, but it’s not Gallo for Verdugo. It’s Gallo for very cheap and Verdugo for a prospect haul.

 

[LogansDad]

For the love of everything holy in baseball, do NOT make me watch Pagan in a Red Sox uniform.

I came in here to say the exact same thing, but went to look up his numbers first. I have no idea how he has cut both his K rate by almost 4% this year, and yet cut his HR/9 by more than half. He feels like a ticking time bomb. He's posted a HR/9 less than 1.5 exactly once, as a rookie, playing for Seattle. He is currently at .8 this year.

 

[chawson]

I always appreciate Chawson’s insane creativity here but no. There’s no way Gallo for Verdugo is good on any level. wOBA deez ballz!!!

I hope you don’t read me as saying I want to trade Verdugo for Gallo!

I think the prospect of trading Verdugo in the next 12 months is very much not insane. He’s improved this year (I think?) but he’s still a platoon player, in my eyes, and none of us knows what he’d want in an extension. He’s almost certainly at his peak value this deadline, relative to this winter and next summer.

Now I totally recognize that I’m speculating on trade scenarios with the Twins based off Gammons’ goofy tweet. But the Twins have got Wallner, Larnach, Kepler and Kiriloff (mostly playing a defensively very bad 1B) and Kepler out there as outfield options beyond Gallo, and are 2nd-worst in the majors vs. LHP. They might just prefer Duvall over Gallo given their lineup and team-wide strikeout issues. And he’s a good defensive RF who still may be fixed.

Then maybe you could trade Verdugo to a team that could use a solid right fielder, for prospects, a shortstop or pitching.

 

[chawson]

For the love of everything holy in baseball, do NOT make me watch Pagan in a Red Sox uniform.

Ha! Yeah I get the sense he’s not in the circle of trust. It’s interesting, maybe, that his best year by far came with the Rays in 2019.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

What kind of prospects do the Sox need, though? If they plan to contend next year, I would think that Verdugo on a one year deal is pretty appealing. I don’t really get the desire to extend or trade him. What does the team really need more than a pretty good OF in his prime on a one year deal?

(If they can turn him into a cost controlled potential top of the rotation starter, sure. Seems unlikely).

 

[moondog80]

What kind of prospects do the Sox need, though? If they plan to contend next year, I would think that Verdugo on a one year deal is pretty appealing. I don’t really get the desire to extend or trade him. What does the team really need more than a pretty good OF in his prime on a one year deal?

The logic -- and I don't know if I support it -- is rolling the dice that Duran is for real and Rafaella would be ready next year (and getting a stopgap like Duvall to hedge your bets). So you exchange Verdugo's value for young pitching, which is the team's biggest need.

 

[LogansDad]

The logic -- and I don't know if I support it -- is rolling the dice that Duran is for real and Rafaella would be ready next year (and getting a stopgap like Duvall to hedge your bets). So you exchange Verdugo's value for young pitching, which is the team's biggest need.

I kind of get it, and I am a huge Verdugo fan, but I also don't think he's the kind of player that a team is going to give up a high value prospect arm for. I think he is more valuable to the Sox (even if he doesn't end up signing an extension) than he is as a trade chip, if that makes any sense.

I especially feel this way because they don't have a ton of Corner OF prospects, either.

But he isn't a game changing player, and I think the best (pitching) trade you could get for a year and a half of him would be one or two interesting but likely fungible arms.