The 2023 Trade Deadline: Scenarios

[The Gray Eagle]

Bobby Dalbec for Rich Hill-- who says no?
I guess the Red Sox might say no because Hill is still owed almost $4 million more this year. And the Pirates might be hoping for a better return than a guy many people think of as a AAAA player.

But on the other hand, Hill is a million years old, and according to the radio broadcast the other day, comes back to Boston whenever possible to spend time with his family. Maybe we add in another low-level minor leaguer in exchange for Pitt. to eat some money, and they do it as a favor to him.

I really think Dalbec would be a very useful player for them for the next couple years. They have Hayes at third, but he's currently on the DL, and when he's back, Dalbec could DH and play 1B. I think he'd give them 25 HRs (and 200 Ks) for cheap, in exchange for 2 months of a 43-year-old who really doesn't want to be there anyway.

 

[YTF]

Bobby Dalbec for Rich Hill-- who says no?
I guess the Red Sox might say no because Hill is still owed almost $4 million more this year. And the Pirates might be hoping for a better return than a guy many people think of as a AAAA player.

But on the other hand, Hill is a million years old, and according to the radio broadcast the other day, comes back to Boston whenever possible to spend time with his family. Maybe we add in another low-level minor leaguer in exchange for Pitt. to eat some money, and they do it as a favor to him.

I really think Dalbec would be a very useful player for them for the next couple years. They have Hayes at third, but he's currently on the DL, and when he's back, Dalbec could DH and play 1B. I think he'd give them 25 HRs (and 200 Ks) for cheap, in exchange for 2 months of a 43-year-old who really doesn't want to be there anyway.

IMO if you see Dalbec as a 25 HR guy who's MLB ready I would hope to get more than 2 months of Hill for him.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I’d be fine with moving Dalbec for Hill, imagine swapping a guy like Murphy or Walter for him could work too, perhaps better for the 40-man.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

IMO if you see Dalbec as a 25 HR guy who's MLB ready I would hope to get more than 2 months of Hill for him.

I think he could do that (and he has already done it, but it was 2 years ago) but most major league GMs are not going to value him like that. They are going to value him as an older minor leaguer who flamed out that they might take a chance on because he still has potential and he's cheap.

 

[bosockboy]

Not that I’m necessarily advocating it, but what’s the market price for renting Snell? The Padres as sellers might really open up the market.

 

[Benj4ever]

I’d be fine with moving Dalbec for Hill, imagine swapping a guy like Murphy or Walter for him could work too, perhaps better for the 40-man.

I'd be fine with moving Walter for him. Murphy...not so much.

 

[YTF]

I think he could do that (and he has already done it, but it was 2 years ago) but most major league GMs are not going to value him like that. They are going to value him as an older minor leaguer who flamed out that they might take a chance on because he still has potential and he's cheap.

Hill has a 4.76 ERA on the season and roughly 6.00 in his last 5 starts. I'd look for a team that might be looking for a RH hitting 1st base platoon.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

I don't think we are going to have many options for getting much for Dalbec. If we can get a half decent starter for him, then we should do it.
Hill is usually good for 5 or 6 innings with 3 or 4 runs allowed. I highly doubt we can get more than that for Bobby, but it would be great if we can. He really doesn't seem to be in the Red Sox plans.
Hill's last 5 starts:
5.2 IP, 3 ER
6 IP, 4 ER
5 IP, 3 ER
4 IP, 5 ER
6 IP, 3 ER

As you said, that's a 6.00 ERA but it's 4 out of 5 starts that the Red Sox would have a solid chance to win with a decent offensive performance.
Average of 5 1/3 IP per start. If he did that with us, that would really be helpful.

 

[JM3]

The odd thing about Dalbec & Hill is that we don't really have any depth like Dalbec. He's basically our Turner insurance.

Whereas we have a couple guys in Murphy & Walter who are already basically Hill adjacent.

 

[chrisfont9]

I would not have considered the Padres sellers (yet) but boy was getting swept by the Phillies damaging to them. Snell is potentially in play, though they might be reluctant to admit anything just yet. FWIW, the local columnist was speculating that they are buyers even after yesterday's two losses.
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/newsletter/2023-07-16/padres-daily-ullpen-trade-deadline-starter-designated-hitter-gary-sanchez-luis-campusano-juan-soto-manny-machado-finger-injury-padres-daily

 

[MuzzyField]

I would not have considered the Padres sellers (yet) but boy was getting swept by the Phillies damaging to them. Snell is potentially in play, though they might be reluctant to admit anything just yet.

Not swept, the Padres won on Friday.
However, your point still stands.

 

[chrisfont9]

Not swept, the Padres won on Friday.
However, your point still stands.

Oh, right, I guess they had a makeup game in there or something. So they only went from 6 back to 8. 8 is a lot though.

 

[grimshaw]

I would not have considered the Padres sellers (yet) but boy was getting swept by the Phillies damaging to them. Snell is potentially in play, though they might be reluctant to admit anything just yet. FWIW, the local columnist was speculating that they are buyers even after yesterday's two losses.
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/newsletter/2023-07-16/padres-daily-ullpen-trade-deadline-starter-designated-hitter-gary-sanchez-luis-campusano-juan-soto-manny-machado-finger-injury-padres-daily

I don't think the Padres are giving up until it's hopeless. They are all in already and even with being 8 back of a playoff spot are still 25% to make the playoffs.
Hard to believe a team with 5 all star caliber players in their lineup and with Kim and Grisham also playing very well, a rotation that has everyone with a higher fWAR than Bryan Bello, and Hader being stupid good, they are 6 under with a +36 run differential.

If fixing their pen is all it takes, Preller ought to be able to do something between now and the deadline.

 

[soxhop411]

That seems like a lot of positions for the yankees to want to “upgrade” at the deadline
View: https://twitter.com/feinsand/status/1680928406983024641?s=46

 

[Archer1979]

That seems like a lot of positions for the yankees to want to “upgrade” at the deadline
View: https://twitter.com/feinsand/status/1680928406983024641?s=46

I'm not up on NY's farm system, but do they have the prospects to make those sort of deals without losing some of their more valuable prospects? They could just starting "buying" assets by taking salary with some throw-ins just to make sure the don't get Bowie Kuhn'ed. But, you're right, that's a long list.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Probably moot, but I'm a Snell skeptic, he gives up a lot of walks and somewhat famously doesn't pitch especially deep into games. Something similar could be said for Jack Flaherty . But, realistically, I'm not sure they're in a position to be so choosy.

 

[Y Kant Jody Reed]

Bobby Dalbec for Rich Hill-- who says no?
I guess the Red Sox might say no because Hill is still owed almost $4 million more this year. And the Pirates might be hoping for a better return than a guy many people think of as a AAAA player.

But on the other hand, Hill is a million years old, and according to the radio broadcast the other day, comes back to Boston whenever possible to spend time with his family. Maybe we add in another low-level minor leaguer in exchange for Pitt. to eat some money, and they do it as a favor to him.

I really think Dalbec would be a very useful player for them for the next couple years. They have Hayes at third, but he's currently on the DL, and when he's back, Dalbec could DH and play 1B. I think he'd give them 25 HRs (and 200 Ks) for cheap, in exchange for 2 months of a 43-year-old who really doesn't want to be there anyway.

I get the appeal of trading for Rich Hill at the deadline but I don't see the urgency or the need to give up a player with one elite tool for him. Hill's a free agent this offseason and will only be 44 next year. I'd love to see the Sox sign Hill to a Wakefield-esque deal with open-ended mutual extension. He can move back to Massachusetts, hang with the family, only pitch home games, just come into the ballpark for his side sessions and starts, throw a few gorgeous 12-6 curveballs and get through the order once or twice, take a shower and back out to Milton in time to watch the 9th inning with his kids. He could do this into his 50s at least, I feel. Teams carried 25 players on their active rosters for so long that they know how to get by, it'd be great to see the Red Sox get creative with the 26th man; treating Rich Hill like a family doctor who is winding down his practice, only seeing his longtime patients and not looking for any new business, could be a new market inefficiency.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Probably moot, but I'm a Snell skeptic, he gives up a lot of walks and somewhat famously doesn't pitch especially deep into games. Something similar could be said for Jack Flaherty . But, realistically, I'm not sure they're in a position to be so choosy.

He does give up walks and tends not to go deep into games because he tries to strike everyone out. With that being said, he's the hottest pitcher in baseball.

His last 10 starts: 58 IP, 91K, 25 BB, 4 (!) ER. Those are insane numbers. And since May, he's gone at least 6 IP in 10 of his 14 starts. His worst start, coincidently, was against the Sox on 5/19.

He'd be the Sox #1 or 2, depending on what you think of Bello. The Padres stink, but it's not because of Blake Snell. They're going to want a couple of good prospects for him if they decide to sell.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I'm not up on NY's farm system, but do they have the prospects to make those sort of deals without losing some of their more valuable prospects? They could just starting "buying" assets by taking salary with some throw-ins just to make sure the don't get Bowie Kuhn'ed. But, you're right, that's a long list.

I'm surprised 3B isn't on that list, given Donaldson's toasty season

 

[Archer1979]

I'm surprised 3B isn't on that list, given Donaldson's toasty season

Donaldson just hit the IL so...

They've got a good core in the minors that I would consider off-limits for any trade. They're like the Sox in that I don't think that they have, or will be able to obtain what they need to put them in the WS contenders discussion. But, like the Sox, they can't throw in the towel this close to the last playoff spot and they too have a very favorable July as far as opponents go. Regardless of who they go out and get, without Judge, they're not really in the conversation. But I wrote them off in 1978 so what the Hell do I know?

I took a look to see if they could do a reverse-Punto deal with San Diego, but its not really a good match to pick anyone up without tapping into their untouchables. Lot of the guys that SD has that NYY needs have arb years for the next year or two.

 

[chawson]

Rich Hill was having a much better year in 2021 when he was traded at the deadline for a 35 FV catcher and an injured 34-year-old reliever.

Dalbec seems like a lock to be moved this month, but I think the Pirates would be pretty lucky to get him for Hill.

 

[soxhop411]

Passan almost getting killed by a falling tree wont stop him from covering the trade deadline this year!
View: https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1681016101549817857?s=46

 

[soxhop411]

STL will be sellers
View: https://twitter.com/katiejwoo/status/1681048549721505792?s=20

 

[soxhop411]

View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1681079002604138496?s=46

‘The Red Sox would actually seem to be in a decent spot heading into the the Deadline, with sources suggesting their priorities are two things that might not cost a ton to acquire: 1. A back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, and 2. A seventh-inning righty reliever.’

 

[bosockboy]

Seems like Schreiber is a more than capable 7th inning righty.

 

[nvalvo]

Rich Hill and Reynaldo Lopez seem like a great set of targets, reading between the lines of Bradford’s piece.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

In the Athletic, Chad Jennings throws out 6 made-up Red Sox trade ideas and Jim Bowden gives his takes on each one.
The made-up trades are probably not much better or worse than the ones we throw out here, and they do include specific names.

https://theathletic.com/4695143/2023/07/18/red-sox-trade-deadline-scenarios/

They talk about these suggested trades:

1. Red Sox get: Lucas Giolito, Tim Anderson
White Sox get: Nick Yorke, Wikelman Gonzalez, Ryan Fernandez

2. Red Sox get: Paul Blackburn
A’s get: Enmanuel Valdez, Blaze Jordan

3. Red Sox get: Michael Fulmer
Cubs get: Bobby Dalbec, Matthew Lugo

4. Red Sox get: Chris Newell
Dodgers get: Kiké Hernández

5. Red Sox get: Cody Morris
Guardians get: Adam Duvall

6. Red Sox get: AJ Smith-Shawver, Ignacio Alvarez, Luke Waddell
Braves get: James Paxton


Meanwhile, MLB Trade Rumors mentions these guys as possibly being of interest to Boston:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/red-sox-seeking-back-end-starter-right-handed-middle-relief.html

Back-of-the-rotation starting pitchers:

Rob Bradford of WEEI reported yesterday the Sox are seeking to add pitching depth. He suggests a back-of-the-rotation starter and a right-handed middle relief option are on the target list.
Each of those player types should be attainable. Veteran back-end starters change hands every deadline season. Michael Lorenzen, Carlos Carrasco, Lance Lynn and recurring Sox’s target Rich Hill are among the impending free agents who are unlikely to require a hefty acquisition cost. Oakland’s Paul Blackburn and Cleveland’s Aaron Civale are middle to back end starters with multiple seasons of remaining affordable control. They’d be costlier from a prospect perspective than the aforementioned rentals as a result.

Righty middle relievers:

There are various righty bullpen arms who stand out as possible trade candidates. Michael Fulmer, Keynan Middleton, Reynaldo López, old friends Joe Kelly (who’s expected back from an IL stint shortly) and Adam Ottavino, José Cisnero, Chris Stratton and Shintaro Fujinami could all be on the move.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I don’t see them in on RH BP guys with Schreiber soon to return. The Gioliti and Anderson deal is interesting….. I try to hold on to Gonzalez though. I think he’s going to jump to the top of mL pitchers within a few more months.

 

[simplicio]

I don’t see them in on RH BP guys with Schreiber soon to return. The Gioliti and Anderson deal is interesting….. I try to hold on to Gonzalez though. I think he’s going to jump to the top of mL pitchers within a few more months.

Is it interesting? Anderson's been a millstone this year, nearly as bad as Kiké and making more.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Is it interesting? Anderson's been a millstone this year, nearly as bad as Kiké and making more.

Did not know…. Maybe he’s trying to play his way out of Chicago???

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Is it interesting? Anderson's been a millstone this year, nearly as bad as Kiké and making more.

Was thinking the same thing. Giolito is intriguing, but I don't see what Anderson adds to the middle infield mix aside from maybe name recognition. He hasn't been nearly as bad as Kike, he's been worse than Kike. He wouldn't be an upgrade to Arroyo or Chang with the way he's played this year.

 

[chrisfont9]

Blaze for Blackburn? Kind of just a guy. Blaze hasn't been great but he's 20, I'm not cutting bait on him for a guy who doesn't move the needle at all from two more bullpen days and a return of Sale or Houck.

[Sale is throwing a bullpen today, apparently.]

 

[nvalvo]

Did not know…. Maybe he’s trying to play his way out of Chicago???

He has had some injuries to his knee and shoulder. You are allowed to look these things up before you post.

edited to add: If healthy, Anderson would be a huge addition for a team with middle infield questions. And I think his personality would be a great fit for Boston. But there’s no indication that he’s actually healthy.

 

[YTF]

Did not know…. Maybe he’s trying to play his way out of Chicago???

Self sabotage heading into FA?

 

[JM3]

In the Athletic, Chad Jennings throws out 6 made-up Red Sox trade ideas and Jim Bowden gives his takes on each one.
The made-up trades are probably not much better or worse than the ones we throw out here, and they do include specific names.

https://theathletic.com/4695143/2023/07/18/red-sox-trade-deadline-scenarios/

They talk about these suggested trades:

1. Red Sox get: Lucas Giolito, Tim Anderson
White Sox get: Nick Yorke, Wikelman Gonzalez, Ryan Fernandez

2. Red Sox get: Paul Blackburn
A’s get: Enmanuel Valdez, Blaze Jordan

3. Red Sox get: Michael Fulmer
Cubs get: Bobby Dalbec, Matthew Lugo

4. Red Sox get: Chris Newell
Dodgers get: Kiké Hernández

5. Red Sox get: Cody Morris
Guardians get: Adam Duvall

6. Red Sox get: AJ Smith-Shawver, Ignacio Alvarez, Luke Waddell
Braves get: James Paxton


Meanwhile, MLB Trade Rumors mentions these guys as possibly being of interest to Boston:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/red-sox-seeking-back-end-starter-right-handed-middle-relief.html

Back-of-the-rotation starting pitchers:


Righty middle relievers:

I'm totally out on 1 & 2.

#3 - I don't feel like we're giving up much of anything... but doesn't feel like we're really getting anything either.

#4 - I'm not familiar with Chris Newell & he seems pretty not great (22 y/o in A+ & strikes out 31.3% of the time)... but I'm still totally in.

#5 - This Morris guy walks a lot of people, but sure.

#6 - Don't think we can really trade Paxton right now so not looking into those prospects.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

A week or two ago I thought they absolutely had to make a move. Now, with the way things are going, I’m not so sure. I would take a Rich Hill or someone if the cost is minimal, but a guy like that may only have a few starts at this point.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Ok, maybe another starter would be good.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

In the Athletic, Chad Jennings throws out 6 made-up Red Sox trade ideas and Jim Bowden gives his takes on each one.
The made-up trades are probably not much better or worse than the ones we throw out here, and they do include specific names.

https://theathletic.com/4695143/2023/07/18/red-sox-trade-deadline-scenarios/

They talk about these suggested trades:

1. Red Sox get: Lucas Giolito, Tim Anderson
White Sox get: Nick Yorke, Wikelman Gonzalez, Ryan Fernandez

2. Red Sox get: Paul Blackburn
A’s get: Enmanuel Valdez, Blaze Jordan

3. Red Sox get: Michael Fulmer
Cubs get: Bobby Dalbec, Matthew Lugo

4. Red Sox get: Chris Newell
Dodgers get: Kiké Hernández

5. Red Sox get: Cody Morris
Guardians get: Adam Duvall

6. Red Sox get: AJ Smith-Shawver, Ignacio Alvarez, Luke Waddell
Braves get: James Paxton


Meanwhile, MLB Trade Rumors mentions these guys as possibly being of interest to Boston:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/red-sox-seeking-back-end-starter-right-handed-middle-relief.html

Back-of-the-rotation starting pitchers:


Righty middle relievers:

Thanks for sharing this!

I'd be out on scenario 1. I'm fully on board (and advocate) trading a couple of our good prospects (not Mayer) for a starter projected to be in the top half of the rotation, but only if that comes with control beyond this season. Giolito would fit the bill for talent but not for term. Hard pass.

Also out on scenario 2. Blackburn looked interesting last year when it appeared he was moving forward with a better k/bb ratio and far better WHIP, ERA and FIP numbers at age 28 and getting his first extended look as a starter in the majors; he's regressed mightily in 3 of those 4 areas this year. Fits the bill for term, but doesn't project as a top half of the rotation starter in my opinion.

#3 - If that were the "starter equivalent" of Fulmer (Carrasco? Lorenzen?) then yes, but not a "meh" bullpen arm.

#4 - Absolutely. I'd do that deal yesterday. Like @JM3 said, I have no idea whom Chris Newell is, but he's not taking time away from younger players, so yes.

#5 - Absolutely. See above.

#6 - I get why the Red Sox WONT do this as it stands today, I won't crush them for that, but if I were pulling the strings, I would absolutely make this deal. AJSS clearly needs to work on his command / control, but at 20 years old and already in the high minors and having shown some success at the MLB level, I think this is absolutely the kind of deal I'd be enticed to "sell" Paxton for. He'd immediately be the best SP prospect in the system. He was a two sport star (football) in highschool and is really just learning how to pitch, but oozes talent.

Excerpt from his MLB scouting profile : Smith-Shawver is big and projectable and already has an electric fastball-slider combination. His heater sits in the mid-90s and touches 98 mph, with a ton of run and life. His slider flashes plus at 88-92 mph and has the chance to be a special out pitch. There’s some feel for his changeup, but he hasn’t thrown it a ton, and it’s behind the other two pitches. He once had a curve but didn’t use it at all last year.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

At this point, I don't think there's really a need to add to the offense unless a right handed hitter falls into their lap. Would Rafaela be able to be our 2B down the stretch?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

At this point, I don't think there's really a need to add to the offense unless a right handed hitter falls into their lap. Would Rafaela be able to be our 2B down the stretch?

What would there be to gain playing him at 2B down the stretch? He's unlikely to hit better than Arroyo or Chang despite his solid numbers thus far in Worcester. I also don't think he gives them significantly better defense there either.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Just for fun, I ran Jennings "deal" of Paxton for Smith-Shawver, Alvarez and Waddell through BTV and it doesn't accept it, and even a straight up deal of Paxton for AJSS isn't accepted. I can't imagine there is any chance Atlanta would even consider that deal for a second, but if they did, the Sox should be all over it and sell Paxton, that'd be way too good of a deal not to accept.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

5. Red Sox get: Cody Morris
Guardians get: Adam Duvall

So the Guardians would give up 5 years of a promising young pitcher for 2 months of a guy who should be DFA material? Is this guy aware that Chris Antonetti runs the Cleveland baseball team and not Rachel Phelps?

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

What would there be to gain playing him at 2B down the stretch? He's unlikely to hit better than Arroyo or Chang despite his solid numbers thus far in Worcester. I also don't think he gives them significantly better defense there either.

My understanding is that he was a difference maker defensively. Historically premium shortstops translate to premium 2B. With infield defense being an issue, the appeal is Story and Rafaela up the middle down the stretch.

 

[Sin Duda]

I've read C-Note is GG level in CF but only + at SS (and presumably 2B). That's not enough of a difference defensively from Arroyo or Kike.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

My understanding is that he was a difference maker defensively. Historically premium shortstops translate to premium 2B. With infield defense being an issue, the appeal is Story and Rafaela up the middle down the stretch.

The only time defense at 2B has been an issue was the few weeks when Valdez was up. Arroyo is more than adequate there (+4 Total Zone, +1 Defensive Runs Saved, +2.2 UZR), as is Chang. Rafaela might be better defensively but not by enough to justify his weaker bat.

 

[JM3]

It's a small sample size... but Rafaela is kind of raking in AAA.

In 73 PAs he's slashing .294/.343/.574 (.916 OPS) with 5 homers (121 wRC+).

It probably makes sense to let him play at Worcester for a while longer for his long term development... but it's certainly not outlandish to think that he would be hitting better than Yu (33 wRC+) or Kiké (60 wRC+) if he was on the Red Sox right now.

 

[BigSoxFan]

It's a small sample size... but Rafaela is kind of raking in AAA.

In 73 PAs he's slashing .294/.343/.574 (.916 OPS) with 5 homers (121 wRC+).

It probably makes sense to let him play at Worcester for a while longer for his long term development... but it's certainly not outlandish to think that he would be hitting better than Yu (33 wRC+) or Kiké (60 wRC+) if he was on the Red Sox right now.

1 walk in 73 AAA plate appearances is pretty nuts. I know plate discipline is his fatal flaw as a hitter but that’s really bad. But, it’s an incredibly low bar to be better than Chang or Kike so I wouldn’t be opposed to giving him a shot. Like you, I don’t expect Chaim to do so yet though.

 

[JM3]

1 walk in 73 AAA plate appearances is pretty nuts. I know plate discipline is his fatal flaw as a hitter but that’s really bad. But, it’s an incredibly low bar to be better than Chang or Kike so I wouldn’t be opposed to giving him a shot. Like you, I don’t expect Chaim to do so yet though.

He's been hit 4 times, though, so at least he isn't swinging at pitches at him?

But yeah, he still doesn't have the full command of an at bat to work walks consistently. 26% strikeout rate is actually better than I thought it was before looking at the stats, but it's also not great for a guy who isn't walking.

 

[moondog80]

He's been hit 4 times, though, so at least he isn't swinging at pitches at him?

But yeah, he still doesn't have the full command of an at bat to work walks consistently. 26% strikeout rate is actually better than I thought it was before looking at the stats, but it's also not great for a guy who isn't walking.

Is there a track record for guys with this bad of a K/BB to not become JD Drew, but at least respectable? Is Javier Baez the ceiling? That would be fine if that's what he turned into, although he seems to be cooked at 30 years old. Elly De La Cruz is another guy who is extremely walk averse, and after his scorching start he's hit 242/262/339 in 15 games in July.

 

[johnnywayback]

He's been hit 4 times, though, so at least he isn't swinging at pitches at him?

But yeah, he still doesn't have the full command of an at bat to work walks consistently. 26% strikeout rate is actually better than I thought it was before looking at the stats, but it's also not great for a guy who isn't walking.

Yeah, the issue with Rafaela isn't so much swing-and-miss, it's pitch selection -- he swings at a lot of pitchers' pitches, which results in weak contact, and the worry is that, against major league pitchers who are able to throw pitchers' pitches more consistently, we'll see a lot of pop-ups and weak grounders early in counts, if that makes sense.