Snodgrass'Muff said:
The value of their first round pick isn't what it was last year. They will have either the last pick or the second to last pick in the first round in June. I'm not quite sure how they handle the tie breaker with St. Louis. The Red Sox had the better interleague record, so I'm guessing they pick last. Anyway, with picks coming in for Ellsbury and likely Drew at least, they are going to see their first pick drop by a few slots, and nothing more. That's a small cost for picking up the best players available, whomever they deem those to be. I expect we'll see a departure from last year's model, at least as far as protecting picks goes.
Snod, I've seen somewhere fairly legit (Bleacher Report maybe?) that we pick ahead of St. Louis, at No. 30 to the the Cardinals No. 31. Toronto gets an extra pick because they didn't sign their first-rounder last year, so that's why there are 31 picks in the first round. So, while we're not sitting on the glorious No. 7 pick again, we're also going to be picking well higher than No. 30.
With 13 QOs out around MLB, a lot of those first-round picks will vanish after QO'd FAs sign with new teams. Best-case scenario is our No. 30 pick becomes a No. 17, although that's farfetched. 1.) a couple/few of those QOs will be accepted; 2.) Any team with a protected top-10 pick won't lose it. And there are some money teams among the top 10 this year, too (CWS, Cubs, Phillies, Mets, M's if they spend).
So, who knows how many places, the Sox move up, but I'd think about seven spots perhaps, with that No. 30 becoming a No. 23. That would also move up however many QO sandwich picks we're holding onto, as well. To somewhere in the neighborhood of 30.
That's why losing, say, Ells and one of Drew/Napoli, and then not signing a QO'd FA like McCann or Beltran would give us essentially three picks in roughly what used to be the first round.