The Celtics' Xs and Os

[NomarsFool]

The announcers last night tried to give the Celtics a pass because they are "putting in a new program". I really, really question whether that is the case. Is anything the Celtics are doing on offense different than what they did last year? Yes, Ime talks about ball movement. Brad talked about ball movement, too. I don't see any difference in how they actually play.

Brad played two bigs for much of last season, Ime has played two bigs for much of this season.

Brad played a switch everything defense, Ime has played a switch everything defense. Yes, their defense this season is better - but their defensive personnel (Richardson, Horford, slimmed down Grant Williams) is better. I'm not seeing any difference in defensive strategy.

I honestly don't think the head coach needs to be some wunderkind at coming up with ATO plays. I think the head coach needs to have someone on his or her staff that can draw up ATO plays, and the head coach needs to have the wisdom to choose which one, if they are presented with some options. I have no idea if Ime has someone like that on his staff, or if they do, and the players just don't listen. I don't feel like the Celtics, despite Brad's reputation for being a wunderkind ATO guy, were particularly good ATO last season, either. So, maybe it's the players - but at some point, if it's the players, the coach needs to be able to get them to execute the ATO play - or you need a new coach.

I'm perfectly fine with a narrative of "This team just isn't good enough" - because I think that is a pretty fair assessment. I'm really not fine with "The players need time to learn Ime's system" - because I don't see what that system is. That narrative also dooms the Celtics to more mediocrity, IMHO, because it doesn't solve the underlying problem - which is not enough talent.

 

[CreightonGubanich]

I agree with all of that, and I feel like I keep hearing different bits and pieces of what Ime's "system" supposedly is. First, we were going to run the offense through Brown and Tatum (remember Point Tatum?) so those guys could become better playmakers. Then we needed to free them up offensively by playing them off the ball more, so teams wouldn't trap them. Then the system was "0.5", where it doesn't matter who has the ball because everyone needs to make decisions in a half second or less. Most recently, everyone seemed to be saying they needed to play through their passing bigs more. Guess what - if you're running your offense through Horford and Williams in the high post, you're not making quick passing decisions.

The rotations are also constantly in flux. I don't know who off the bench is going to play, other than Schroeder, who starts half the time.

On one hand, I feel for Ime, because while they have some guys who are good passers for their positions - namely Smart, Horford, and Rob Williams - they don't have a single guy on the roster who can reliably control the offense on an every night basis. His two stars don't make the guys around them, or each other, better, and they don't have a Mike Conley type who can get the ball to their stars in the right spots. If I had to simplify it, I'd say the two Jays just need to be better. They need to be better at taking care of the ball in crunch time, they need to be better at knowing when, where, and how to find their teammates, and they need to be better at getting good shots in the fourth quarter. Unless Stevens can add a third star like Beal to those two, which seems unlikely, the team isn't going to be much better no matter what tweaks the coach makes -- unless those two guys figure out how to balance offense, defense and playmaking.

On the other hand, I think there's tweaks to be made. I'd start Smart, Richardson, Brown, Tatum and Rob Williams, and play Pritchard, Schroder, Grant and Horford off the bench. Sprinkle in Langford or Kanter as matchups allow. I'd keep Schroder as far away from the starters as possible - he's a non-shooter who holds the ball too long. He's the antithesis of what they should be trying to be on offense. I'd trade him at the deadline no matter what. Those things might help, but they're still going to be a poor-shooting team without an offensive identity other than praying the Supernova Tatum shows up.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The current NBA isn't like the old NBA, when teams used to play disparate styles like the Nuggets versus the LAL versus BOS.

On defense, virtually everyone plays the same kind of man-to-man defense with zone principles. Some switch 1-3, others switch 1-5 (this all depends on personnel). Probably the biggest outlier is MIL, which plays a lot more drop coverage than most teams but that's also because they have Giannis and had Brook Lopez. The two main goals of every defense are the same: rim protection and 3P shooting defense. Some team prioritize one of the other but as layups and 3Ps are the most efficient shots, those are the ones teams are trying to stop.

Ime's scheme switches more than Brad's did but Ime isn't really going to (for example) switch Kanter onto other wings for long periods of time.

On offense, it's kind of the same. (In other threads, we've talked about the homogenization of NBA basketball.) There are a few different sets but the goal of most of these are the same: get a mismatch and exploit that mismatch so that the player gets a good shot or the player draws a double-team and then can get the ball to the open guy. The biggest thing about this from the Cs POV IMO is that it requires appropriate spacing so that one defender can't guard two offensive players, and too often the Cs lack that spacing because they don't have any player movement.

Ime hasn't made a lot of public pronouncements about his "scheme," but we're pretty sure it kind of mirrors SAS. Note I posted in the other thread that SAS has the fastest offense in the NBA and covers the most distance. Just because guys are making decisions in 0.5 seconds doesn't mean that they aren't going to be playmakers - the goal is to make a decision on whether to shoot, drive, or pass within 0.5 seconds, not necessarily just get rid of the ball like a hot potato.

IMO, the NBA isn't like the NFL where a team can run a novel style of offense (like the Ravens a couple of years ago) and have the rest of the league take a year to figure it out. I think everyone pretty much knows what everyone else is running and everyone is running pretty much the same shell and the same plays but with tweaks or emphasis to fit personnel. I think the Cs problem is execution, particularly late in games where they do a lot of standing around. Obviously if a team isn't executing and losing, people are going to blame the coach. Which is totally fair to me. But on the other hand, I'm not sure how Ime gets JB or JT or DS to cut everytime down the floor when they don't have the ball other than to install a Princeton-type offense, which I don't think the players would embrace.

I don't think the Cs are that far off from being a really good team but that's going to require JB and JT figure out how to win. One of the things that I mentioned is that typically "Closers" in the NBA have a move or a shot that they can go to and get a bucket against anyone. KD, LBJ, Giannis, Kawhi, even Chris Paul (etc.) - they get the ball in crunch time and they are going to be efficient. Neither JT or JB have this, which is the biggest problem down the stretch IMO.

 

[NomarsFool]

The rotations are also constantly in flux. I don't know who off the bench is going to play, other than Schroeder, who starts half the time.

The rotations are something where I give him a half-pass. The Covid situation this year has certainly made it unprecedentingtly difficult to have consistent rotations, certainly. I think many folks around here were critical of Stevens last year for spreading the minutes around too much - but I think Udoka has corrected a bit too much the other way. It really does seem like he's been riding his top players a little bit too much, and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that could be a factor in their horrific 4th quarter performances.

But, I still come back to what "system" Udoka is running that is so different than last year that the players need to "learn"? I'm not seeing it. And, I'm not saying that there needs to be some complicated system, per se. Basketball is not football. I'm just irritated a bit that "learning the system" is being given as an excuse for their poor performance. They either just aren't good enough and/or they aren't listening to their coach. It's not a situation that is just going to get better.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

As I noted in the other thread when I questioned the existense of an offensive scheme, I simply don't see a lot of evidence of it in any real way. I get there are some principles Ime has said he'd like---pass quickly, move, etc. But, as someone who watches 3/4 of the games, I simply see little to no evidence on the court of those being stitched together, nor do I think anyone (even those who believe there is a clear scheme) believes that the players are doing them consistently. Those are separate problems but in my view related

There is little doubt SOME of the challenge is the players largely were here last year and have their own tendencies, and SOME is about execution. But whether there really is a clear system is a pretty key question. Part of why I've been cynical about that for several weeks now is that I see lots of very different things being explored---a high post focus some games (and the coach saying 'we need to do more of that') and then games where there is little/no high post action. Statements that they want to play inside-outside, and then games where there's no one in the post to enable that. Etc. I think that pretty clearly demonstrates they are still trying to figure out what to do---which is ok, but leaves us in this interim state where no one (coaches or players) really has a system they are operating within and that dynamic will always lead to lot of unevenness in execution.

A couple folks said they are sure there is a system in place; I welcome some reason to believe that is true but to date, that is wishcasting unfortunately as I see the games.

 

[Humphrey]

I do wonder what they think of Langford at this point. 8 minutes Wednesday, no shots attempted, no points, 1 rebound, 1 blocked shot, +/- of 0. DNP-CD yesterday.

Nesmith hasn't played a minute since coming off the Covid list. Has done nothing except replace Aminu and Pelle on the DNP-CD list at the end of the box score.

How much worse can either of those guys be in Qs 1-3 versus a clearly overused, misfiring Horford in Q4?

 

[NomarsFool]

How much worse can either of those guys be in Qs 1-3 versus a clearly overused, misfiring Horford in Q4?

I do think Horford has played well on defense this year, and I think he's a good passer. But, playing he and RW together - or gasp - he and Freedom together just means you have two guys setting picks that the other team can completely ignore.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

But, I still come back to what "system" Udoka is running that is so different than last year that the players need to "learn"? I'm not seeing it. And, I'm not saying that there needs to be some complicated system, per se. Basketball is not football. I'm just irritated a bit that "learning the system" is being given as an excuse for their poor performance. They either just aren't good enough and/or they aren't listening to their coach. It's not a situation that is just going to get better.

What Ime is asking JT and JB do that is different from last year is that when teams are loading up on them down the stretch, they have to learn to "make the right read," give up the ball, and get other people shots. One of the issues is that both JT and JB work super hard on their games - their moves, their shots, their footwork, their handles, etc. - but staring down a defense and figure out what to do and where the ball should go isn't something you can do over the summer.

Plus, neither player got to where they are by passing the ball.

In short, JT and JB are learning to make quicker, better, and more productive decisions. If they do this, the Cs will be much better. If they don't, it's going to be a frustrating time for all of us.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

What Ime is asking JT and JB do that is different from last year is that when teams are loading up on them down the stretch, they have to learn to "make the right read," give up the ball, and get other people shots. One of the issues is that both JT and JB work super hard on their games - their moves, their shots, their footwork, their handles, etc. - but staring down a defense and figure out what to do and where the ball should go isn't something you can do over the summer.

Plus, neither player got to where they are by passing the ball.

In short, JT and JB are learning to make quicker, better, and more productive decisions. If they do this, the Cs will be much better. If they don't, it's going to be a frustrating time for all of us.

There are things that they just need to learn to do better. There was one relatively ordinary play last night that showed where some room for improvement is. I can't remember which was which on this play, but I'll say for now it was JB driving. JB drove from the left side, help defense came, and JB was covered and runs out of real estate. Belatedly, a wide open Tatum runs to the left elbow, making himself available (to quote Andy Brickley), gets a pass from JB, misses a jumper. It was fine, but it looked a little off and out of rhythm because Tatum was a couple of beats late in recognizing that he needed to give JB an outlet. (Or it was Tatum driving and Brown late to realize he could help, I think it was Brown driving but can't recall). A basic thing. Or maybe they don't expect each other to pass in that situation.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Or maybe they don't expect each other to pass in that situation.

QFT!

There was a clip from the end of the SAS game where JT drove and ended up shooting a heavily contested layup. JB should have relocated to the corner but he just stood there. Guys don't cut if they don't think they will get the ball.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

QFT!

There was a clip from the end of the SAS game where JT drove and ended up shooting a heavily contested layup. JB should have relocated to the corner but he just stood there. Guys don't cut if they don't think they will get the ball.

Another example from the end of the first half tonight. JB drives from above the break on the left side. Tatum is above the break on the right side. As Brown drives, Tatum's man helps off of him to trap Brown, Brown gets trapped and finds Tatum, but too slowly so Tatum's man has time to recover. If Brown sees Tatum's man leave and gets him the ball right away, Tatum gets a catch and shoot three.