The Future of Football: NYTimes Links Big Tobacco with NFL Concussion Study

[crystalline]

"Obama not sure he'd allow a son to play football"
 
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/news/20130127/obama-not-sure-hed-allow-a-son-to-play-football/?sct=hp_t2_a8&eref=sihp

"I think that those of us who love the sport are going to have to
wrestle with the fact that it will probably change gradually to try to
reduce some of the violence," Obama tells The New Republic.

"In some cases, that may make it a little bit less exciting, but it will
be a whole lot better for the players, and those of us who are fans
maybe won't have to examine our consciences quite as much."

In an interview in the magazine's Feb. 11 issue, Obama said he worries
more about college players than he does about those in the NFL.

"The NFL players have a union, they're grown men, they can make some of
these decisions on their own, and most of them are well-compensated for
the violence they do to their bodies," Obama said. "You read some of
these stories about college players who undergo some of these same
problems with concussions and so forth and then have nothing to fall
back on. That's something that I'd like to see the NCAA think about."

 
I am impressed by Obama's clarity.
I feel almost exactly the same way: (1) changing the game may change it so we fans won't have to examine our consciences quite so much, and (2) NFL players are grown men who make a choice and are well-compensated for the hits they take.  The same is not true at lower levels.
 
I can't say I felt great about Ridley's hit in the Baltimore game, and I'd have felt the same if it was Ray Rice.  Pollard and Ridley colliding, resulting in a brain injury which caused him to drop the ball, was likely the single play that most caused the Pats'
loss (I'd argue with the Brady tip-interception in the red zone).  I'm not happy about that hit on multiple levels.

 

[Laser Show]

Pollard doesn't think the NFL will be around in 30 years
 

“The only thing I’m waiting for,” Pollard said. “And, Lord, I hope it doesn’t happen … is a guy dying on the field. We’ve had everything else happen there except for a death. We understand what we signed up for, and it sucks.

 
Can't say I disagree... unless there are major changes made.

 

[wutang112878]

Pollard doesn't think the NFL will be around in 30 years
 
 
Can't say I disagree... unless there are major changes made.

 
I understand the scale is completely different, but the logic is that NFL is going to be extinct because a side effect of their game is brain injuries, meanwhile MMA keeps growing?  Sure, maybe the NFL wont be nearly as popular it is today but there is still going to be a market.  The same way there is a market for MMA which is essentially paid, modern day gladiator fighting. 
 
And I am all for the anyone suggesting that the NCAA and lower levels think about how to deal with the concussion issue.  But in the next breath a sport like MMA,  where its 100% legal to pound on a guys head repeatedly while they lay on the ground, should get some attention, otherwise its just hypocrisy dictated by popularity priority.
 
 
Going to a complete extreme, if the NFL really wants to save itself, it might be able to save itself by forcing players to wear lead shoes.  While it sounds ridiculous, it might work.  The game will not be as fast, and would be slower and therefore different, but Force = Mass * Acceleration, and a decrease in acceleration will lead to a decrease in force.  Beyond the education and sensitivity to the issue that have now that we didnt have in previous generations, a big driver of this problem is the force issue, players are becoming bigger and faster as the years go and lead shoes would slow that down.  Alternatively the league could expand the playing field and reduce the number of violent collisions as well.  One way or another, the game is going to change and it wont be as popular but it will be around.

 

[ALiveH]

All the protection in NFL & the gloves in boxing ironically cause MORE concussions - because it's all blunt force trauma.

In MMA someone is going to get cut up and have a blood-splattered stoppage in most cases long before a concussion. Fact is MMA has far less brain trauma than boxing or NFL.

 

[Dehere]

It's hyperbole to talk about the NFL being out of business in 30 years. At the same time, however, the current gap in popularity between the NFL and MMA is so huge that it's not that hard to imagine that the NFL could take a significant hit in popularity while MMA continues to grow. There's room for both to happen.

 

[DegenerateSoxFan]

And I am all for the anyone suggesting that the NCAA and lower levels think about how to deal with the concussion issue.  But in the next breath a sport like MMA,  where its 100% legal to pound on a guys head repeatedly while they lay on the ground, should get some attention, otherwise its just hypocrisy dictated by popularity priority.

 
Except that if you watch any MMA, you'll notice that the refs are right on top of the action and don't hesitate for a second to pull the plug when it gets to the point where a guy isn't capable of defending himself anymore and is about to take some shots that would really injure him. I'm not a big fan of the sport, and it sure seems dangerous. But those guys don't take anywhere near the number of blows to the head that boxers or football players do. Maybe we'll find out down the road that some of these guys develop neurological issues from MMA fighting, but given the way the matches are run, I wouldn't expect anything near the problem we're seeing with football or boxing.

 

[FelixMantilla]

http://www.northjersey.com/closter/Former_Jets_Giants_pay_for_fame_with_unending_pain_disabilities.html?page=all
 

The desperate prayer often escapes Wesley Walker’s lips in the dead of night.



VIOREL FLORESCU/ STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER

Former Jets Pro Bowler Wesley Walker says he is suffering from constant, intense pain.





VIOREL FLORESCU/ STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER

Former Jet Bruce Harper copes with nearly constant headaches and he has heart and brain issues. In front are medications he is currently taking for pain and other ailments.


When the pain grows intolerable, he sits alone in the dark watching movies, passing the sleepless hours that plague him almost daily.
“I’ve sat in bed, praying ‘Jesus, God, would you make the pain go away?’ ” said the 57-year-old Walker. “I just don’t want to go through this anymore. I would give anything just for a day not to have this happen.”
The former Jets Pro Bowl receiver has been unable to feel his feet for 25 years and suffers from “constant, wrenching” pain running up his arms and deep inside his hands — which now shake — caused by nerve damage.
This is life for Walker, and many of his former colleagues. While tens of millions of fans are focused on Sunday’s Super Bowl, Jets and Giants once at the center of attention deal quietly with illnesses such as Walker’s.

 

[johnmd20]

Peak popularity. Doesn't mean football is going away but I don't think it will have the popularity it has enjoyed over the past 7-8 seasons. It is only a matter of time, these stories are non stop. You can't bury them all.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

I searched for a catch-all concussions thread but didn't find anything right on point, and I know we've talked about this issue in a number of threads related to players retiring, suicides, murder-suicides and so-forth.  So I thought it might be interesting to put all of this information into one topic for discussion.  A few thoughts that have been floating around in my head caused me to want to have a discussion around this:
 
1.  First, SI reported yesterday that Pop Warner Football lost 23,612 players from 2010 through 2012, a drop of 9.5% over that period of time (link below).  That is pretty amazing.  Here is the link:   http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/page/popwarner/pop-warner-youth-football-participation-drops-nfl-concussion-crisis-seen-causal-factor
 
2.  Second, I have a son who is quite big for his age and is just getting into the age where he could start playing football, and he would probably be pretty good at it and I think he would love playing.  While I am not sure I would prevent him from playing if he expressed interest, I would probably try to discourage it, and right now I'm pretty happy that he's shown an interest in other sports instead.  His pediatrician, though, has been extremely vocal to his mother and me about the dangers of football before we even asked about it (I am guessing due to his size but maybe this is a standard warning now?  I don't know).  Obviously my experience here is anecdotal but he can't be the only pediatrician who is being vocal about this to parents of Pop Warner aged kids.
 
3.  Third, I was watching the "Three Games to Glory II" DVD with my son last week and there are several hits during the playoff run (Eugene Wilson in particular absolutely smokes Marvin Harrison in the AFC Title Game) that you just don't see anymore in football.  So I guess that is progress in that hits like that (that at the time I admittedly thought were great, and cause me to cringe now) you basically do not see in the NFL anymore.  But concussions remain a problem so even with eliminating hits like that is it even possible to play NFL football (or football at any level) without putting your long-term health in danger?
 
I know the cumulative effect of all of this would take years to have any kind of lasting impact on the NFL, but if Pop Warner participation is decreasing that drastically it seems like it is only a matter of time before the talent pool takes a significant hit.  I absolutely love football and the NFL, they have surpassed baseball at this point for me and are by far my favorite sport to watch, but I do sometimes feel guilty for feeding the NFL my dollars and my television time.  And for the first time I am honestly questioning whether the NFL will survive for my grandchildren to be able to enjoy, and maybe that is not a bad thing.  I don't know. 
 
So, what say you SOSH?  I thought we could use this thread as a catch-all thread to discuss the health issues (concussions and otherwise) that playing football presents, as what that means for the future of football.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

There is a lot to chew on here and I only have a few semi-connected thoughts in response:

My impression is that the science is very far from settled (and I'm the farthest thing from an expert myself) but I remember reading something that made a fairly persuasive argument that repetitive sub-concussive impacts above a certain degree of force were more dangerous to brain health than a few big concussions. If that is really the case, then I think football at the NFL level is probably fundamentally dangerous to human health, no matter how the rules are tweaked to attempt to reduce the incidence of concussions via big hits. Its not obvious to me, however, that football at lower levels would be all that dangerous, especially youth football in which the force generated by hitting is very very minor. But even if that's the case scientifically, that's unlikely to deter worried parents.

I'm not sure about the link between Pop Warner participation rates and the strength of the NFL product. Some talent pool dilution might occur, but its not clear to me that this would be significant enough to change the game in ways that made it unappealing to viewers. And I don't think there's a very clear link between how many people participate in youth football and how many people become professional football fans - soccer is a great example of a sport in which the two really don't translate at all. So I think if the concussion stuff has an adverse impact on the popularity of the NFL, its more likely to be through turning off a large enough portion of the adult population on ethical grounds, not by affecting the sport at the grassroots level.

Its completely plausible to me that the NFL will have fallen from its lofty perch in a generation or two. Societies and cultures can change very rapidly and there's plenty of historical precedent of other dominant sports falling steeply in popularity. In addition to the concussion issue, I wonder about other factors as well. Demographic changes like the expansion of the Latino population may work against football somewhat. We also have seen such a dramatic trend toward diversification and fragmentation of media and entertainment in general that I wonder whether any entertainment vehicle, a professional sport or otherwise, will be able to sustain such a truly dominant position in the future.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I searched for a catch-all concussions thread but didn't find anything right on point, and I know we've talked about this issue in a number of threads related to players retiring, suicides, murder-suicides and so-forth.  So I thought it might be interesting to put all of this information into one topic for discussion.  A few thoughts that have been floating around in my head caused me to want to have a discussion around this:
 
1.  First, SI reported yesterday that Pop Warner Football lost 23,612 players from 2010 through 2012, a drop of 9.5% over that period of time (link below).  That is pretty amazing.  Here is the link:   http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/page/popwarner/pop-warner-youth-football-participation-drops-nfl-concussion-crisis-seen-causal-factor
 
2.  Second, I have a son who is quite big for his age and is just getting into the age where he could start playing football, and he would probably be pretty good at it and I think he would love playing.  While I am not sure I would prevent him from playing if he expressed interest, I would probably try to discourage it, and right now I'm pretty happy that he's shown an interest in other sports instead.  His pediatrician, though, has been extremely vocal to his mother and me about the dangers of football before we even asked about it (I am guessing due to his size but maybe this is a standard warning now?  I don't know).  Obviously my experience here is anecdotal but he can't be the only pediatrician who is being vocal about this to parents of Pop Warner aged kids.
 
3.  Third, I was watching the "Three Games to Glory II" DVD with my son last week and there are several hits during the playoff run (Eugene Wilson in particular absolutely smokes Marvin Harrison in the AFC Title Game) that you just don't see anymore in football.  So I guess that is progress in that hits like that (that at the time I admittedly thought were great, and cause me to cringe now) you basically do not see in the NFL anymore.  But concussions remain a problem so even with eliminating hits like that is it even possible to play NFL football (or football at any level) without putting your long-term health in danger?
 
I know the cumulative effect of all of this would take years to have any kind of lasting impact on the NFL, but if Pop Warner participation is decreasing that drastically it seems like it is only a matter of time before the talent pool takes a significant hit.  I absolutely love football and the NFL, they have surpassed baseball at this point for me and are by far my favorite sport to watch, but I do sometimes feel guilty for feeding the NFL my dollars and my television time.  And for the first time I am honestly questioning whether the NFL will survive for my grandchildren to be able to enjoy, and maybe that is not a bad thing.  I don't know. 
 
So, what say you SOSH?  I thought we could use this thread as a catch-all thread to discuss the health issues (concussions and otherwise) that playing football presents, as what that means for the future of football.

There's a pretty good clip running on SportsCenter today about Tony Dorsett, Leonard Marshall and Joe  DeLamielleure being diagnosed with CTE. I see that there are articles going back a week or two on this also. The ESPN bit is more striking, hearing them talk about depression, thoughts of suicide, etc.
 
As for Pop Warner football, I used to coach soccer and quite often on the next field over there would be a Pop Warner game or practice going on. I thought it was ridiculous, the volume of the helmet and the pads looking considerably bigger than the kid himself. Maybe it's good in that it keeps them from getting going too fast. Looked contrived and stupid though, to have to encase the kids that way just to play a game. I played in HS. Maybe fortunately, my sons were slow growers and just weren't big enough for football. Baseball and soccer were fine instead. 

 

[ifmanis5]

Meh. Football players get laid. There's always a future in that.

 

[RFDA2000]

This isn't likely to help the decline in Pop Warner participation.
 
Link

 

 
Well into the fourth quarter of Saturday's 60-6 loss to Arizona Lutheran Academy, Youvella fell hard on his head and collapsed a couple of plays later. He died Monday at the hospital of a traumatic brain injury, the Arizona Interscholastic Association said.
 
CBS Phoenix affiliate KPHO-TV says the injury occurred when the 5'5" Youvella was tackled.
 

 

[Kliq]

As much as all this stuff with health issues is being covered, it still does not really compare to the glorification that football still endures. If you are talking with some parents and you ask how Jimmy is doing, and his parents say "Jimmy is doing good, he started playing football for the high-school team," most peoples general reaction is still "Oh, good for Jimmy." Now, that perception may be changing, but I still think that a lot of people look at a young person playing football as a good thing. Another thing is that football is a huge piece of so many small towns in America. In Texas, if you are a boy and you are in decent shape, you play football in high-school. Your older brothers played, your father played and your grandfather played. You are not going to  play unless the culutre drastically changes.
 
Something else to keep in mind is that most people only play football for 4-6 years, in high school. The guys that are famous enough to make headlines when something health releated comes up (like Dorsett or Seau) have been playing the game for over 15 years when you count high school, college and the pros. That is a lot more games and practices then the typical high school kid will endure while playing.

 

[wutang112878]

The NFL has a big long-term problem on its hands.  After the huge settlement they just gave out, they cant exactly come out with public service announcements declaring that the game is good and safe.  I am sure that concussion concerns are 100% of the reason of this drop, but I am sure its a significant factor.  The NFL is changing rules, and I believe there are some improved helmets which might help, but the concussion factor is still there. 
 
I think eventually some radical change will be needed, something like forcing each player to play with a weighted vest equal to 20% of his weight, changing the rules so that every player who is on the line of scrimmage must be standing (so no explosion from defensive lineman), and eliminate blitzing.  As far as significant impact hits go after that, I would think it would be limited to a player running free on the QB and receivers being blindsided over the middle which they are already partially eliminated.  That would significantly impact the game and maybe it becomes arena football under those rules, but it would address the issue at hand.
 
As far as the football pipeline goes, there should still be enough talent there.  While we would notice the difference, football would still be great if the best 1000 players all retired tomorrow, the game would still look like it was being played at a high level as long as we have 32 (ok maybe 15) capable QBs on the planet. 
 
The biggest question to me that I cant estimate, is when do these issues affect viewership and thus revenue?  Clearly parents are concerned, but for the 10% decrease in participation I bet most of those parents still watch the NFL.  They dont like the concussions for their kids, but I am sure it doesnt bother them as much as long as its someone else's kids.  To me this is the main issue, when does the NFL truly feel some pain because of this shift in opinion.  It doesnt seem as though it has happened yet and the concussion news and settlement has been pretty bad, so I dont know when the tipping point will come and I dont see it on the immediate horizon but maybe I am naive

 

[mascho]

As much as all this stuff with health issues is being covered, it still does not really compare to the glorification that football still endures. If you are talking with some parents and you ask how Jimmy is doing, and his parents say "Jimmy is doing good, he started playing football for the high-school team," most peoples general reaction is still "Oh, good for Jimmy." Now, that perception may be changing, but I still think that a lot of people look at a young person playing football as a good thing. Another thing is that football is a huge piece of so many small towns in America. In Texas, if you are a boy and you are in decent shape, you play football in high-school. Your older brothers played, your father played and your grandfather played. You are not going to  play unless the culutre drastically changes.
 
Something else to keep in mind is that most people only play football for 4-6 years, in high school. The guys that are famous enough to make headlines when something health releated comes up (like Dorsett or Seau) have been playing the game for over 15 years when you count high school, college and the pros. That is a lot more games and practices then the typical high school kid will endure while playing.

 
 
SSS and all, but I started playing at 9 in Pop Warner, and counting high school and college, I've got 13 years in me.  
 
Completely off-the-cuff, and again, SSS, but if I'm any indication the future of football is likely limited.  As I said above, I started playing the game at 9 and continued through college.  Our playroom/mancave is filled with game balls, trophies, jackets, framed clippings/photos, etc.  I love football, love it.  Even continued after college playing in competitive flag leagues until, well, my body couldn't do it anymore.  But playing football got me so many things in life.  I got me lifelong friends from high school and college.  It got me into a college I didn't deserve to get into, and that got me into a law school where I met my wife.  Football has given me so much.  But....
 
I'm 36 but wake up each day in pain.  Need work done on both knees.  Torn labrum in my right shoulder which needs surgery.  A spine that has multiple bulging discs that I'm told will likely require surgery in the future.  I had four diagnosed concussions during high school/college, and those are the diagnosed ones.  Probably had more, including one in law school when I was playing flag, dove for a pass during the first half of a game, and the next thing I remember was arriving at my (now wife's) apartment with a face covered in blood.  Played the entire rest of the game, though.  Hit my head on a guy's knee I guess.  
 
So I dread the day my son asks me if he can play.  I can't in good conscience let him knowing that if he has the same love of the game that I do, he might end up 36 and in pain every day.  But at the same time, at some point he will stop listening to his dad, and I can't protect him forever.
 
While I still love the game, at its heart it is a collision sport that I'm not sure is for everyone, including my son.  And this is a topic I've discussed with former teammates who are now fathers, and to a man we all say the same:  We played, but maybe they shouldn't.  We're all gimpy now.  

 

[Ralphwiggum]

As much as all this stuff with health issues is being covered, it still does not really compare to the glorification that football still endures. If you are talking with some parents and you ask how Jimmy is doing, and his parents say "Jimmy is doing good, he started playing football for the high-school team," most peoples general reaction is still "Oh, good for Jimmy." Now, that perception may be changing, but I still think that a lot of people look at a young person playing football as a good thing. Another thing is that football is a huge piece of so many small towns in America. In Texas, if you are a boy and you are in decent shape, you play football in high-school. Your older brothers played, your father played and your grandfather played. You are not going to  play unless the culutre drastically changes.
 
Something else to keep in mind is that most people only play football for 4-6 years, in high school. The guys that are famous enough to make headlines when something health releated comes up (like Dorsett or Seau) have been playing the game for over 15 years when you count high school, college and the pros. That is a lot more games and practices then the typical high school kid will endure while playing.

 
 
Couple of things about this:
 
1.  There is definitely some regional bias to my first post.  I live in Massachusetts and my son (who lives with his Mom) also lives in Mass in an upper-middle class suburb.  My experiences with him, his friends (none of whom play football, at least yet) and his pediatrician is I am sure very different from somewhere in the south or even maybe the Midwest.
 
2.  As Mascho notes, if you play through high school alone (or into college) that can still be years of football and lots of pounding.  Plus, it just seems like so little is known on the issue of head injuries.  Why take the chance, even if you assume they will only play through high school, if he can play other sports where the risks are much lower?  As a parent that's the question I ask myself.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

The NFL has a big long-term problem on its hands.  After the huge settlement they just gave out, they cant exactly come out with public service announcements declaring that the game is good and safe.  I am sure that concussion concerns are 100% of the reason of this drop, but I am sure its a significant factor.  The NFL is changing rules, and I believe there are some improved helmets which might help, but the concussion factor is still there. 
 
 
 
The biggest question to me that I cant estimate, is when do these issues affect viewership and thus revenue?  Clearly parents are concerned, but for the 10% decrease in participation I bet most of those parents still watch the NFL.  They dont like the concussions for their kids, but I am sure it doesnt bother them as much as long as its someone else's kids.  To me this is the main issue, when does the NFL truly feel some pain because of this shift in opinion.  It doesnt seem as though it has happened yet and the concussion news and settlement has been pretty bad, so I dont know when the tipping point will come and I dont see it on the immediate horizon but maybe I am naive

This is my question, and it relates not only to concussions, but the hazing/bullying, Aaron Hernandez and a number of other issues.  What has to happen for you to change your viewing habits?  I think it is inevitable that there will be a time when someone dies on an NFL field.  That is going to be a horrible day, obviously, and something that I believe the NFL will have difficulty overcoming.  Why?  Because it may be the final straw leading to corporations pulling their sponsorship money.

 

[wiffleballhero]

It is hard to tell, but it seems like the game is going to go through a long, slow cultural decline akin to the one seen for boxing.
 
The NFL will likely be around for a good long time, but there may be a forthcoming 'watershed' moment where some college football program shuts down for purely health/ethical reasons (knowing football's risks particularly with concussions now makes the game incompatible with the mission of the school). Maybe it starts in D3, but I'd be surprised to not see it gradually work up the chain.
 
From there the game would likely become more marginalized in the culture, gradually falling away from the schools.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

As many have pointed out, I think it's going to become an increasingly regional game played primarily in red states.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I'm on the other side of this.  I don't think football is going anywhere or drastically changing anything, other than better care for head injuries.  It's easy to tell when someone tweaks his ankle, but often not so easy to tell when someone tweaks his brain.  There is baseline neurological testing available, and it has to become a standard part of health management protocol. 
 
Participation may decline, but I'm not sure I would read too much into the Pop Warner numbers.  The years cited are years where the economy has been weak.  Football isn't a cheap sport to play--not in the same league as hockey, but not cheap.  In addition, Pop Warner is just one small slice of youth football.  People tend to think of it like Little League Baseball, but it isn't even close.  For all we know, X number of towns ended their affilation with Pop Warner and switched over to their own Park and Rec leagues during those years.
 
Regardless, serious head injuries in youth football are extremely rare.  The kids just don't hit that hard.  And high school, college, and pro football are deeply engrained as a part of the American culture.  And not just in the "red" states.  Way, way, way more than boxing ever was.  Can it be made safer?  Sure, starting with tackling techniches, taught at the youngest levels.  But it will always be a collision sport, and there will always be injuries.  You can get a rotational concussion without getting hit in the head.  Nothing is going to stop that.  But in the end, the increased knowledge will lead to somewhat better equipment, better education, and better management.  And people will keep playing and watching.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

For me it isn't that I am fearful that my son will get a serious head injury playing Pop Warner, I am confident that will not happen at the youth level.  It is more a fear that (a) there is potentially a cumulative impact of the smaller head "bumps" (for lack of a better word) that we don't understand very well right now, and more importantly (b) if he plays now and is good at it he'll want to keep playing through at least High School which means, like in Mascho's case, a good 10+ years of slamming his head into others on the football field and I would just as soon have him do something else athletically.
 
I am not sure that football is heading the same place as boxing, at least not in the short term, but if I feel so strongly about my own child not playing it does make me wonder whether it is a sport I should be supporting at the professional and college level with my money.
 
That said I am not remotely close to being able to give up football at this point, but in 5 years?  10 years?  If we learn more about the head injuries and it is worse than we even think at this point?  I don't know.

 

[h8mfy]

Agreed that Pop Warner is only one source of youth football.  In my hometown (Montclair, NJ), my nephew is in 5th grade and is playing for the local team, which has about 30 kids and plays against other towns.  When I was there in the 70s, we had 30 or so kids on 6 teams within the town and only played another town at the end of the season.   I know demographics have changed but I was surprised that it is all now "travel" football instead of "intramural."
 
I loved playing football every chance as a kid and it was easy to get pickup games of gear-free tackle through HS with 7 per side.  I think I've heard my own son say they played touch once or twice. 
 
I love watching and following football but I am starting to wince when watching a lot more than I remember back 20 years ago - perhaps that's age, but I'm having a hard time suppressing the thoughts about what these guys are doing to themselves for my amusement. 

 

[Kliq]

Does anybody know the head injury effects in Pop Warner as compared to proffesional, college or even high school football. Obviously, the kids are going much slower and thus not able to hit as hard, but there bodies are obviously more fragile. Is a kid more likely to get hurt playing Pop Warner then the average high schooler?

 

[DegenerateSoxFan]

I've always told my son that I wouldn't let him play football until high school (the only level I played at, and I did enjoy it very much), mainly because I've always felt that kids really aren't physically and emotionally ready for it until they're about 14 or 15.  
 
Now? I'm just glad he's into baseball, is really good at it (After his first season of little league, he was selected for a traveling all-star team made up mostly of kids older than him), and wants to focus on it (played fall ball this year instead of soccer like before). I don't hear him asking about playing football anymore. . .and I feel oddly relieved, even though playing football in high school was one of the few enjoyable experiences in my miserable adolescence. I dunno, maybe because it's likely that the long-term brain damage we're hearing about is due to the cumulative effects of many hits - and therefore more likely affect the guys who play it the longest and at a level where the collisions are the most violent - the pros, and maybe Division I college ballplayers - that high school ball is not much to stress over as a parent. But what if your kid turns out to be really good at it? A college scholarship is nothing to sneeze at with tuition costs these days, and if they have a shot a the pros? 
 
I don't know what to think anymore, except that I don't think the sport is going away any time soon - football players really do get laid a lot. I'm just glad I don't have to really think about it for a while because it's another six years until my kid hits high school.
 
Edit: for grammer

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Agreed that Pop Warner is only one source of youth football.  In my hometown (Montclair, NJ), my nephew is in 5th grade and is playing for the local team, which has about 30 kids and plays against other towns.  When I was there in the 70s, we had 30 or so kids on 6 teams within the town and only played another town at the end of the season.   I know demographics have changed but I was surprised that it is all now "travel" football instead of "intramural."
 
I loved playing football every chance as a kid and it was easy to get pickup games of gear-free tackle through HS with 7 per side.  I think I've heard my own son say they played touch once or twice. 
 

This isn't confined to football.  "Extreme sports" and video games have taken a chunk away from traditional sports participation, both organized and pick-up

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Anecdotally, our town has had a rash of injuries at the Pop Warner level is season. In one 5th grade game they had three kids have to be taken off in an ambulance. One kid tore his ACL.

A few years ago I heard a story that Spaziani doesn't think its necessary for kids to play anything other than Flag football, and didn't have his own kids play tackle, until they reach high school.

 

[richgedman'sghost]

As many have pointed out, I think it's going to become an increasingly regional game played primarily in red states.

 

[richgedman'sghost]

Like California?

 

[ZP1]

Things are going to get much, much worse for football before they get better. I was initially writing a post saying that medical science could save football, but I realized that it's far more likely that it ends up destroying it instead.  Why? Long before we get to the point of effectively treating injuries like concussions, we're going to get a full and thorough understanding of what they actually do to the brain and body.  Those studies when they inevitably come out are going to destroy football at every level it's played - especially at the middle school/high school level.   By the time we actually come out with reasonable treatments for traumatic brain injury, I think it's likely that football will have fallen to a point where it can't really be saved.   

 

[Blacken]

This isn't likely to help the decline in Pop Warner participation.
 
Link

Here, have another.

I don't think football is going anywhere or drastically changing anything, other than better care for head injuries.  It's easy to tell when someone tweaks his ankle, but often not so easy to tell when someone tweaks his brain.  There is baseline neurological testing available, and it has to become a standard part of health management protocol.

The problem with this is that pre-CTE conditions are apparently cumulative and may not show deviations from baseline neurological results until there is sufficient damage to exhibit later in life.

I strongly doubt that football, as currently played, can be made safe.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

The problem with this is that pre-CTE conditions are apparently cumulative and may not show deviations from baseline neurological results until there is sufficient damage to exhibit later in life.

I strongly doubt that football, as currently played, can be made safe.

Or the baseline might change from year to year, which would be an important red flag.
 
But there is no indication that CTE is a serious problem for people who played only through high school.  Maybe not even through college.  Once football becomes your job, the cumulative number of hits, and the severity of each impact increase dramatically.
 
There are approximately one million high school football players and more than that at the youth level.  There are approximately 75,000 in college, and 2000 in the pros.
In that regard, football may, in fact, be "safe" for the vast majority of players, at least with respect to CTE. 

 

[mascho]

CTE was found in the brain of a deceased 18 year old high school football player.
 
http://www.bu.edu/cste/case-studies/18-year-old/
 
It was also found in Mike Borich, who never played a down in the NFL.
 
http://www.bu.edu/cste/case-studies/mike-borich/
 
Honestly, I think we're just at the tip of the iceberg when it comes to finding CTE in former players who never played a down in the NFL, or even in college.  

 

[caesarbear]

The only way to fix it is to eliminate the hit. Any sport where a violent collision is allowed by the rules is in trouble. Taylor Twellman had his soccer career cut short and now lives with constant headaches due to the frequent hits. It's not enough to reduce the number, they have to be eliminated as a legal play to minimize them.
 
Is flag football still football? Is there a way to make flag football have more contact but not allow hits?

 

[ZP1]

CTE was found in the brain of a deceased 18 year old high school football player.
 
http://www.bu.edu/cste/case-studies/18-year-old/
 
It was also found in Mike Borich, who never played a down in the NFL.
 
http://www.bu.edu/cste/case-studies/mike-borich/
 
Honestly, I think we're just at the tip of the iceberg when it comes to finding CTE in former players who never played a down in the NFL, or even in college.  

 
I'd be curious to see how much of this is a football thing and how much of it is a concussion thing.  Because of all the talk of how sub-concussive impacts can have a significant effect on a brain, it'd be interesting to compare and contrast brains in the category of concussions + football versus brains that simply suffered concussions through accidents.   
 
I think the scariest part about CTE are all the potential things it could be doing to someone's body and health that are likely written off to other causes. Given how the brain naturally regulates the function of every other organ in the body, it's probably not a stretch to think that damage from CTE could harm other parts of the body as well.  We focus on the dementia aspect because it's the most obvious symptom, but the real damage to someone's overall health could be starting much earlier than anyone realizes.  

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

I definitely watch football with an increasing awareness of the possible long-term future of the players on the field. Sometimes I'll see a guy on the sidelines with his helmet off and study him more closely, pondering whether his current benefits - amazingly high salary, societal status, etc. - outweigh his potential future, which of course may still be *much* better off for having played football than it would be if football didn't exist. And of course, that's the X factor here: even if all of these brain-related medical issues are proven to be as devastating and widespread as they seem to be, we still have no way of knowing what the career trajectories of these NFL pros (and even college players on scholarship who are able to make more of their lives with a degree and post-university job network than they otherwise might have) would be without football. Just because an ex-pro is suffering physically doesn't mean he wouldn't also be suffering physically from a career in construction work or some other blue-collar job that takes a toll on the body, or by making bad decisions or generally suffering a lower standard of living than he otherwise might have.
 
I also wonder how many other sports will be similarly affected by the escalating level of medical awareness. For example, in soccer you regularly have to practice thumping a large and fairly hard ball with your bare forehead: how does that type of repeated head trauma over time affect the brain? There's also an increasing awareness of concussion issues in professional soccer - the English Premiership is currently in a heightened state of awareness following an incident in which a clearly concussed goalkeeper (Tottenham's Hugo Lloris) was allowed to return to action, and several other recent concussive collisions have been analyzed much more closely as a result. Independent of brain-related traumas, tragic accidents do happen now and again in nearly every sport; are we now much more likely to hear stories about football-related injuries simply because those stories feed an existing public perception and they are more likely to be regarded as newsworthy than, say, news of a golfer struck and killed by lightning while in the middle of a round, or an off-piste skier who crashes into a tree and never makes it off the mountain?
 
To some extent I'm playing devil's advocate here. The NFL, like football more generally, clearly has a problem that is much more likely to become bigger than smaller over time, and I both identify with the problem and remain aware of it while watching a sport I otherwise love to watch. But thus far I can't really say that my enjoyment of football is any less than it's ever been (except insofar as my injury-riddled Falcons have already lost four more games this season than they lost all of last season) - the above arguments help me rationalize my continued interest in a way that I don't think is self-deceptive. I guess my biggest gripe is with people who complain that football is getting softer and somehow less manly because so many of the big hits they've previously enjoyed are getting legislated about the game; to me, they are bigger morons than the players who keep exposing themselves to such injuries. If anything, my awareness of the medical issues has helped me completely accept the direction that the rules of the game are headed in a way that Neanderthal Fan prefers to ignore; in that sense, I actually enjoy the game now *more* than I would without that awareness, not less.

 

[SawxSince67]

The game is in trouble. It has been since the stories of Andre Waters, Justin Strzelczyk, et al. emerged. Back then, it was clear that science (medicine, physics) would be employed to find common denominators, causes. The subject wouldn't be dropped from public view.
 
Media insures that the general public is aware of these tragic tales; now Dorsett (my idol when I was a kid) and Marshall are still alive, but suffering. Add that to Waters' and Seau's suicides, Strzelczyk's insane police chase, Mike Webster's homelessness by choice.
 
Additionally, rules are introduced at higher levels of the sport where players literally have to re-train themselves on tackling technique, else be penalized, ejected or fined. This makes for frustration from the viewer's POV; 'targeting' or 'roughing the QB' rules are difficult to consistently understand.
 
The result is now we are at the point where people will, to varying degrees,disengage from the game.
 
This is a violent and dynamic sport. How does a player operate as forcefully and as instinctively  as possible until the moment of contact, only to transition and then carefully consider his body position relative to his opponent's?
 
Rhetorical question. I don't know how it can be done. 
 
Now, we have the legislation attempts at the lower levels. The Pop Warner system feeds the scholastic level, which, in turn, provides for the Collegiate level. The infrastructure of the talent pool, in a large and general sense, is now facing peril. Existential peril.
 
I DO NOT deny the health implications of the repeated blows to the head or otherwise. I don't have anything near Mascho's background, but did play in a organized, adult touch tackle (think rugby, but 8 on 8, with a football) league for a decade plus. I recall being unable to generate the torque to get out of bed, torn ligaments, inadvertent head collisions where I lost a few seconds of time.
 
I, too, love the game, but I can't see how the game won't be utterly different, else reorganized, in the years to come.

 

[GBrushTWood]

Taylor Twellman had his soccer career cut short and now lives with constant headaches due to the frequent hits. It's not enough to reduce the number, they have to be eliminated as a legal play to minimize them.

 
This is what makes the problem even larger than it is today. Because of the obvious violence and giant dudes bashing into each other, football gets 95% of the focus. I'm not really sure, however, why soccer and hockey don't also receive focus in terms of inherent risks with obtaining CTE? Soccer players repeatedly line up their skull against a round ball hundreds/thousands of times during a career. That seems like the very definition of repeated sub-concussive hits. Look at the hit Jonathan Toews received during the Stanley Cup Finals last year. I'd be surprised if he didn't receive a bit of Tau buildup from that. I'd be stunned if enforcer goons like John Scott or Matt Cooke aren't at high risk for CTE. 
 
Yet, most people focus on football. It's kinda like performance enhancing drugs and baseball. Everybody focuses their attention on just MLB when it's a sports wide problem. In this case, football clearly has a huge problem to address, but it ain't just them alone.

 

[m0ckduck]

Yet, most people focus on football. It's kinda like performance enhancing drugs and baseball. Everybody focuses their attention on just MLB when it's a sports wide problem. In this case, football clearly has a huge problem to address, but it ain't just them alone.

 
Well, football gets the brunt of people's attention because, as others have said, it's the only sport that would truly cease to resemble its current form if the threat of concussions were removed. Presumably, soccer players could don helmets, hockey could minimalize hitting, and both sports would solider on. Therefore, it's easier to overlook the issue of head injuries here, because there is the implicit sense that the ruling bodies could flip a switch and make it go away if they needed to. No such switch exists for football. 
 
Another question along these lines is: which sport is best positioned for the long-term in the US? Is it soccer, the 'world's sport'? It is basketball, that faces no real intractable problems and is constantly expanding its market overseas? Is it (devil's advocate position baseball, which has begun to address its biggest problems at the pro level (PEDs, competitive imbalance) and appeals to the growing Latino segment of the US population? Hockey? I would say that soccer can expect the biggest growth, but has a lot of catching up to do. Basketball seems to be best positioned for the next 10-20 years. 

 

[JimD]

Football will be in trouble when school districts and colleges begin dropping their programs out of fear of being sued by parents claiming that those institutions knew of the dangers and are responsible for these injuries.

 

[riboflav]

Not just soccer and hockey. I coach varsity basketball and concussions are a huge problem now, especially on the girls' side. I have not gone through a season in five years without losing a player for significant time with a concussion. Two seasons ago, I had three players missing several consecutive games at the same time. I've had players who have sustained their fifth or sixth diagnosed concussion by the time they were 16. I think I heard on NPR a couple years ago that diagnosed concussions greatest rise over the past decade has been in basketball.
 
But, not just basketball. My son's former babysitter had a full athletic scholarship to play field hockey at Missouri. During her Freshman season, she was concussed for the eighth time in her life and the trainers convinced her to give up her sport and consequently her scholarship. She has memory issues and bright sunny mornings bother her. I don't really know anything about field hockey but she told me that concussions "are very common" in the sport.
 
All anecdotal stuff of course, but I think sports, not just football, as we know them will be fundamentally changed over the next couple generations. 

 

[mascho]

"Mike and Mike" are about to discuss the drop in Pop Warner participation. If you're interested.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Football will be in trouble when school districts and colleges begin dropping their programs out of fear of being sued by parents claiming that those institutions knew of the dangers and are responsible for these injuries.

 
I don't disagree with this sentiment.  But I also feel like people have been saying this exact line on this board for at least three years now.  So the questions is why has this not happened yet.  Is the science not strong enough to prove that the schools were negligent? Was the NFL settlement the first domino that had to fall? Has this already happened but hasn't been broadly reported?

 

[JimD]

 
I don't disagree with this sentiment.  But I also feel like people have been saying this exact line on this board for at least three years now.  So the questions is why has this not happened yet.  Is the science not strong enough to prove that the schools were negligent? Was the NFL settlement the first domino that had to fall? Has this already happened but hasn't been reported broadly reported?

 
I'd guess it's because no one has won a major lawsuit yet.  Just seems like a matter of time, IMO.

 

[Winger 03]

That is true.  I never heard of Pop Warner football until I met my wife from MA who has relatives that play in a PW league.  Down here in my part of MD, I only know of local associations which band together to form their own leagues.
 

In addition, Pop Warner is just one small slice of youth football.  People tend to think of it like Little League Baseball, but it isn't even close.  For all we know, X number of towns ended their affilation with Pop Warner and switched over to their own Park and Rec leagues during those years.

 

[mauf]

Among policy makers, there's much more concern over childhood obesity than over the long-term effects of sports-related concussions. And rightly so.
 
Football has long enjoyed a reputation as a dangerous sport, even compared to other contact sports. As a result, some parents have refused to let their children play. As we learn more, football's dangerous reputation will grow, and more parents will not let their children play (we're seeing this already), but I think predictions of football's demise are vastly, vastly overstated.
 
Other sports may change the rules to make concussions less likely, but overall I don't expect the kind of widespread change that riboflav and others do. On balance, sports are good for you.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

That is true.  I never heard of Pop Warner football until I met my wife from MA who has relatives that play in a PW league.  Down here in my part of MD, I only know of local associations which band together to form their own leagues.
 

 
Is there some reason to expect that Pop Warner would be disproportionally impacted as compared to other youth football leagues?  If the drop in participation is due to parents fears over their kids playing youth football (which I suspect it is but I guess we don't know for sure right now) I would expect other youth football leagues would be similarly impacted.  So, I'm not sure why this point (that Pop Warner is only a fraction of youth football leagues) matters.

 

[BigJimEd]

 
 
Couple of things about this:
 
1.  There is definitely some regional bias to my first post.  I live in Massachusetts and my son (who lives with his Mom) also lives in Mass in an upper-middle class suburb.  My experiences with him, his friends (none of whom play football, at least yet) and his pediatrician is I am sure very different from somewhere in the south or even maybe the Midwest.

I live in a middle class suburb in Mass and never has a pediatrician mentioned anything about the dangers of football to my family. Nor have I known anyone whose pediatrician has. Youth football is pretty popular about 35-55 kids in each grade from 3-8. Biggest drawback in our own town is hockey is extremely popular and the schedules overlap quite a bit.
 
My 10 year old has played for a few years now. I actually didn't want him to play but several of his friends were playing and my wife signed him one day without mentioning it to me. In his 3 years, one kid on his team has been diagnosed with a concussion and missed the rest of the season. That is the only concussion that I know of.  One kid did break a bone in his hand this season and there were several other relatively minor injuries but nothing serious. The hitting did start to make a pretty big jump this year though. Kids were less hesitant and the force of the hits were much greater than previous years.
 
His league is not Pop Warner and also doesn't follow a lot of the new recommendations from Pop Warner and USA Football such as the heads up tackling. I believe all Pop Warner leagues now are expected to follow the heads up program which teaches kids to tackle more safely, keeping their head up and not wrapping up.Not sure if some of these new recommendations has caused some towns/leagues to drop their affiliation or not. Our town was never Pop Warner or at least not in the last decade or so. Our league does limit the amount of contact time in practice though.
 
 
Anyway, last year I gently tried to talk my son out of playing but it is his favorite sport even though he is pretty small and not one of the better players by any stretch. He's made some good friendships not only with some teammates but also with some kids on opposing teams. Also I wasn't very concerned about his safety as compared to other sports. I'm not sure at this point whether I will allow him to play next season or not. I will certainly go into more detail about the dangers with him and my wife and I will have another in depth conversation. it will not be an easy decision either way.
 
 
Also, I believe most youth sports have had a decline in participation for the last decade. So while the decline in Pop Warner may be related to safety reasons there are probably many more factors.

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
 
Now, we have the legislation attempts at the lower levels. The Pop Warner system feeds the scholastic level, which, in turn, provides for the Collegiate level. The infrastructure of the talent pool, in a large and general sense, is now facing peril. Existential peril.
 
 

Do you really need the Pop Warner level to feed the scholastic level? Kids can learn to play the game at the 7th - 8th grade levels, or even starting freshman year high school, or later. Or, do you see a dropoff in skills at the high school or college level if kids don't have Pop Warner in which to start learning the game and building skills? Even if that dropoff happened, so what?

 

[Devizier]

If you're interested in this subject, I strongly recommend that you watch the Frontline documentary that focuses on it.