The Game Ball Thread: Wk 12 @ Jets

[Hoodie Sleeves]

That's kind of a chicken and egg argument Stitch. Shipping out Chandler Jones may be interpreted by some as BB not prioritizing it.

Rushing 2-3 men more often than I've ever seen a team do is what makes me think that they don't prioritize it. I don't think their pass rushing personel is particularly good (although Flowers looks pretty good) - but it doesn't really matter when you don't really rush guys. In a typical set on a passing down, if you rush 3, two guys get double teamed, and the 3rd gets a 1-on-1 but probably gets chipped by the TE or RB. Personnel doesn't make much of a difference there - you're just hoping somebody screws up an assignment or something.

The fact that they shipped out Jones and Collins, the fact that they've generally tried to find pass rushers on the scrap heap, or late in the draft, and that BB seems to prioritize reducing downside over increasing upside (passrush based defenses tend to be boom-or-bust) are all supporting evidence.

 

[dbn]

All game I was complaining about the lack of pass rush. Then, at the end of the game, I remembered that they only allowed 17 pts. Then the coverage switched to the Oakland game. The little that I saw of that game, Oakland was getting to Newton, including the sack by Mack. Oakland allowed 32 points.

This is old but a few years ago I looked at defensive pts/game allowed versus yds/game allowed. Here is the (old) plot, with the Patriots' seasons in red.

Currently, they are allowing 353 yds/game, but only 17.9 points per game. It is incredibly frustrating to watch them sometimes, but somehow it works.

 

[Stitch01]

They used third round picks on Flowers and Grissom in 2015. They drafted Easley in the 1st round in 2014 despite not having knees. Jamie Collins was the highest pick in 2013. They traded up and used two first rounders on Jones and Hightower in 2012. I think they've spent draft capital there. Free agency, less so, but they signed Sheard in '15 and dont tend to make big free agency splashes at any position. Not a lot of capital spent there this year, but Collins for whatever reason did not work out as planned this year.

I also dont think they are rushing 2 or 3 that often but dont have readily avaliable charting data. I remember a number of downs where they have rushed four and didnt get there, other times theyve tried to bring extra rushers and they still havent gotten there very often except against Houston and SF (their adjusted sack rate is surprisingly not bad, I have to think its skewed by those two games). SN has pointed it out in game threads when the topic of rushing two has come up.

I think your last point and the Patriots broader defensive philosophy and approach is an interesting topic worthy of its own discussion, but I think the rushing 2 or 3 point and they arent interesting in rushing the passer is a bit overstated and I do think that the team has spent capital there. It just hasnt worked out as planned.

 

[Kliq]

Who makes the stuff on TB12's Facebook page?

 

[Stitch01]

All game I was complaining about the lack of pass rush. Then, at the end of the game, I remembered that they only allowed 17 pts. Then the coverage switched to the Oakland game. The little that I saw of that game, Oakland was getting to Newton, including the sack by Mack. Oakland allowed 32 points.

This is old but a few years ago I looked at defensive pts/game allowed versus yds/game allowed. Here is the (old) plot, with the Patriots' seasons in red.

Currently, they are allowing 353 yds/game, but only 17.9 points per game. It is incredibly frustrating to watch them sometimes, but somehow it works.

Given the Pats have had an elite offense and elite special teams for most of those seasons, this is not a surprising graph. Not sure the takeaway is that the defensive scheme is working though.

 

[dbn]

Indeed it may be an interesting topic for its own thread.

Given the Pats have had an elite offense and elite special teams for most of those seasons, this is not a surprising graph. Not sure the takeaway is that the defensive scheme is working though.

I guess my main point is that they consistently give up fewer points than one would expect for how many yards they give up. What does the offense and special teams have to do with that (honest question, this is interesting stuff to talk about, IMO)? I guess that they consistently put teams in bad starting field position so that it takes more yards to get the same points. Yards allowed doesn't matter, only points allowed, so *in a way* it is working, no?

 

[Import78]

Who makes the stuff on TB12's Facebook page?

I didn't get to see the game live because traffic sucks. I would like to give a game ball to all three of the jets defenders who did not take the opportunity to absolutely destroy TB12 as a blocker on that play. I love Tom, and I get that he is super competitive, but he should never, ever, ever be a lead blocker outside the last play of a Superbowl.

 

[Marciano490]

Man, his knee looks terrible on that play. He's herkyjerking like a 3 legged dog.

 

[Stitch01]

Y

Indeed it may be an interesting topic for its own thread.



I guess my main point is that they consistently give up fewer points than one would expect for how many yards they give up. What does the offense and special teams have to do with that (honest question, this is interesting stuff to talk about, IMO)? I guess that they consistently put teams in bad starting field position so that it takes more yards to get the same points. Yards allowed doesn't matter, only points allowed, so *in a way* it is working, no?

Yes. When we had this discussion in the context of "are the Pats a top defense" earlier in the year, the component stats where the Pats excelled were actually average starting field position, average field position following a kickoff, and average lead and I suspect that's been the case for much of the last decade. Theyve actually improved in several areas since then, notably in the red zone, but the component stats still show something of an averageish defense that benefits from being put in good positions a lot.

But I think we've gone from overrating the defense to underrating the defense. Its not a terrible unit that makes winning a championship impossible because balance (its a better unit than the Denver offense was last year, for one example), its not one of the worst defenses in Patriots history, its not even a bottom quartile NFL defense. Good against the run, bad against the pass because an adequate secondary cant overcome a weak pass rush, lacks playmakers.

 

[Curt S Loew]

Man, his knee looks terrible on that play. He's herkyjerking like a 3 legged dog.

I was gonna say Fred Sanford heading for his chair, but 3 legged dog works. He looked like he really shouldn't have been playing yesterday, but he's not sitting.

 

[loshjott]

It's a topic for another thread, but having Jeff Fisher, the Ravens, and TJ Ward the next three opponents is pretty scary for Brady's knees.

 

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

Who makes the stuff on TB12's Facebook page?

Ben Rawitz and his brother in law, Jeff Fine. Boston.com did a cool piece on Rawitz last year.

 

[BigSoxFan]

It's a topic for another thread, but having Jeff Fisher, the Ravens, and TJ Ward the next three opponents is pretty scary for Brady's knees.

Absolutely. If that cutback run yesterday happened these next 3 weeks, we'd be talking about Jimmy Time today. I was half paying attention during that play but Brady should have been absolutely blasted on that play. He was directly in the way of defenders tackling Blount. He also could have easily been rolled up on. We dodged a real bullet there.

 

[Kliq]

The Game Ball for me goes to Long and Butler. So much has been made about the defense lacking playmakers, but yesterday they got two huge ones, the Peanut Punch by Butler and Long had the great strip sack/celebration to ice the game. The defense isn't that bad but if they can get a turnover or two a game, that'd be great.

 

[Saints Rest]

I think they're pretty interested in pressuring the QB. I dont think they have the personnel or scheme to do it effectively.

a 2-man rush suggests the opposite.

 

[edmunddantes]

I didn't get to see the game live because traffic sucks. I would like to give a game ball to all three of the jets defenders who did not take the opportunity to absolutely destroy TB12 as a blocker on that play. I love Tom, and I get that he is super competitive, but he should never, ever, ever be a lead blocker outside the last play of a Superbowl.

Just a bizarre play. They actively went out of their way to avoid hitting him.

 

[Stitch01]

a 2-man rush suggests the opposite.

Theyve rushed 2 guys, what, 1% of snaps this year? Also, kind of likely part of the reason theyre rushing two or three guys at times is because they dont think they can get pressure with four either.

I dont think BB is a drooling moron, so I do continue to think he's pretty interested in pressuring the quarterback.

 

[Norm Siebern]

Who makes the stuff on TB12's Facebook page?

Side stepping the danger to his knees (memo to Brady: don't do that again), I got a kick out of the video. Brady has a self-deprecating sense of humor that I really enjoy. Maybe it is all PR smoke and mirrors, but if so it has worked on me. He consistently goes out if his way to not take himself seriously. Kudos.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Just a bizarre play. They actively went out of their way to avoid hitting him.

Defenders gave Joe Namath a break in his later years when his knees were shot supposedly because of gratitude to him for being so huge in keeping the AFL going and then getting parity with the NFL by winning the Super Bowl. Why would Jets defenders spare Tom though?

 

[singaporesoxfan]

Defenders gave Joe Namath a break in his later years when his knees were shot supposedly because of gratitude to him for being so huge in keeping the AFL going and then getting parity with the NFL by winning the Super Bowl. Why would Jets defenders spare Tom though?

Maybe it's like when you spot someone famous in a totally unexpected context and you pause for a second to think "where have I seen that guy before?"

 

[Bleedred]

Malcolm Butler is a pleasure to watch. He's ferociously competitive, never gives up on a play and is the rare CB that loves to tackle as much as cover. Far more often than not he is in the right place to defend the WR. My only observation (not a complaint) is that while he is a pretty damn good cover guy, he seems to miss interceptions or knock downs of the football a lot, even when he's in good position. Yesterday was another example on the 2nd TD. Malcolm was there, and he just missed the timing on the TD pass to Owakanuma. In fairness to Malcolm, it was a great great throw to a perfect spot and he did make a pretty good play on the ball circa February 1, 2015.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

I also dont think they are rushing 2 or 3 that often but dont have readily avaliable charting data. I remember a number of downs where they have rushed four and didnt get there, other times theyve tried to bring extra rushers and they still havent gotten there very often except against Houston and SF (their adjusted sack rate is surprisingly not bad, I have to think its skewed by those two games). SN has pointed it out in game threads when the topic of rushing two has come up.

Why the hell are we talking about Houston here? They've been playing an almost completely different scheme since the bye week.

If they'd just had 3 shitty weeks on defense, fine, but they've had a drastic shift in philosophy - they're rushing less guys, the corners are playing further back, etc.

 

[Stitch01]

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4797931/evolving-patriots-defense-taking-small-steps-in-the-right-direction

Reiss had a breakdown of pass rushers by snap. Pats didnt blitz hardly at all, pretty even split between 3 man and 4 man rushes.

2 man; 1
3 man: 14
4 man: 17
5 man: 2

The Patriots’ best bottom-line success came out of the three-man rush, as Fitzpatrick often checked down and was 8-of-12 for just 52 yards, while adding a 2-yard rush for a first down. Meanwhile, defensive tackle Vincent Valentinedrew a holding penalty and defensive end Chris Long’s game-sealing strip sack came out of the three-man rush.

As for what can decisively be said about the Patriots’ D at this point, here are the first two things that come to mind: Turnovers have been hard to come by (nine on the season) and their tackling is better than any team in the league, as they were allowing an NFL-low four yards after the catch entering Week 12 action.

It’s a unit still working to find itself.

Just thought it was an interesting piece from Reiss

 

[tims4wins]

Hard to fault a 3 man rush when the QB is at 4.33 YPA

 

[Stitch01]

Why the hell are we talking about Houston here? They've been playing an almost completely different scheme since the bye week.

If they'd just had 3 shitty weeks on defense, fine, but they've had a drastic shift in philosophy - they're rushing less guys, the corners are playing further back, etc.

Huh? I noted adjusted sack rate was higher than I would have expected to be and wondered if it was skewed by a couple of games. What is confusing you?

I haven't noticed a drastic shift in philosophy. The Pats have never been a heavy blitz team (they bring pressure with four in non-standard ways more often than they blitz) and I don't think they are rushing fewer guys. They focus on not giving up the big play and have often played corners off the line. Looks like a pretty similar philosophy to me.

 

[Zedia]

edit - nevermind, I didn't see Stitch's post above.

 

[Saints Rest]

Huh? I noted adjusted sack rate was higher than I would have expected to be and wondered if it was skewed by a couple of games. What is confusing you?

I haven't noticed a drastic shift in philosophy. The Pats have never been a heavy blitz team (they bring pressure with four in non-standard ways more often than they blitz) and I don't think they are rushing fewer guys. They focus on not giving up the big play and have often played corners off the line. Looks like a pretty similar philosophy to me.

The biggest change I see is that the A-gap rush that Hightower and Collins used to use to perfection has been missing. In the first half of the Seattle game, they showed it many times, but always backed out of it. Collinsworth noted it himself. I kept expecting that to be a change-up in the second half, but instead they simply stopped even bothering to show it.

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah they seemed to show it and spy instead. Got pressure effectively against SF and game plan against the Jets was to let Fitzy try and force the ball downfield if he wanted to (they used to do this when he was with the Bills too IIRC). Hard to say if its a permanent change in what they are trying to do.

 

[Saints Rest]

I hope it's not permanent. One of DHT's strengths, I think, and it's been commented on here many times, is that he is really good at rushing the passer, especially when timing the snap thru the A gaps.

 

[Harry Hooper]

In terms of philosophy, the Kyle Arrington-style blitz seems to have departed with him.