If the Sox really offered 6/145, it jives w the Saved by the Bellhorn report (6/140+).
We shall see. Makes for a fun weekend of constantly checking twitter
We shall see. Makes for a fun weekend of constantly checking twitter
The premature re-signing Lester thread
- Thread starter nattysez
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Like bidding on eBay. The actual need for the object is eclipsed by the simple desire not to lose.
If the Sox really are trapped in a true bidding war, they need to try to break the cycle. A "final offer" is one way, but there are others (if we assume they still have more room). One way would be to try to get Lester to make an offer, or a "if we go to x will he accept it"? At least then you're in the game even if his offer is crazy and not just playing the ebay auction game where the phone rings "they went 140," and it keeps going back and forth until one just stops. At least if you get him to make an offer, you can do creative types of negotiation, like "brackets". "If we go to 130, will he come down to 150?" But if he has two (or more) bidders willing to play the back and forth game, there comes a point where the Sox just have to say "if we beat that offer, will he take it" and be prepared to cut bait if the answer is "not necessarily".
Lester has two teams that want him with both sides taking it personally if they lose him to the other. This is precisely why players take to free agency. It's Lester's camps dream scenario as the latest bump is to $145m while a 3rd team is still interested. He shoudln't sign until the losing parties wave the white flag and give up.Drek717 said:
if they don't think he's going to sign, they'll begin to execute Plan B before dropping out/Lester signs with the Cubs/Cardinals/whoever. Once Lester is gone, the price for the alternatives incrases exponentialaly.
If Lester does not want to come to Boston for $24 million per year, it might just be time to see who is willing to join us for that amount. BC is sailing quickly into overpayment waters.
I'm sure Ben has asked. You always want to see if you can get someone to negotiate against himself. But if I were his agent and had two teams truly interested, I would never give a number unless I absolutely had to in order to get things started, and in that case, I would try to get it from a team that I did not expect to go the distance. My number throughout negotiations would be "as much as I can get". I wouldn't say it like that, but why would you ever give a number while more than one team is involved? Or even where you have a team willing to negotiate against itself? If you truly only want to go to one team and are using other teams to get the best deal you can -- which seems to be the SOSH fantasy here that I don't buy -- then maybe you give a number that signals where you want to end up to try to avoid leaving dollars on the table. Like if your true would sign today number is 140, and your favored team is at 130, maybe you consider offering 150 to try to bracket the negotiation and feel out the team. But to answer the question, other than perhaps something very general, if there truly is a second team in the mix so that Lester isn't playing chicken, I expect he would delay as long as possible giving a number at which he would commit and should be able to do so until the very very end, when he maybe says, "if you go to x, I will commit now and not give the Cubs a chance to match."Papelbon's Poutine said:
So what should plan B look like? What can replace signing Lester that would give the team what it needs?
DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
I for one I'm tired of it. I think you give him your best offer, a deadline (that leaves enough time for him to shop around), ask him to get back to you if he gets anything better and prepare to move on. Frankly, if $140m isn't enough, he can go to the Cubs, the world isn't going to end. Fans (and SoSH) are going to wail and scream about how you blew it in March but whatever. Can't get strung about by Lester. Go to other options, get 2-3 solid pitchers in other ways, even if there's no "ace" that will satisfy people (too few of those anyway), and see you in Fort Myers.
By beginning to execute Plan B, the Red Sox will be signaling to those alternatives that it's time to increase the price. Not suggesting the price won't go up further once Lester signs, but I wouldn't expect the Red Sox to sneak in under the wire and land a Plan B guy just before his price was about to jump meaningfully.Otis Foster said:
I also believe if Lester signs elsewhere it could actually decrease our chances of landing Hamels this offseason as I could see Amaro using the fact we missed on Lester to refuse to budge off Betts, believing Ben would eventually ante up.
I do a decent amount of negotiation and read and think about negotiation theory a bit. I think you need to avoid as hard as you can letting fatigue or frustration cause you to make a bad decision as it approaches nut cutting time. You just have to keep grinding and grinding and grinding with a smile on your face and not walk away from the table until it's truly over or some external contingency makes it so you are forced to go in a different direction. You can try to create false urgencies so long as you don't oversell. You walk to the precipice but not over.Snoop Soxy Dogg said:
So is it possible that each of the recent reports has a bit of accuracy. It is difficult to gauge the timing on some of this stuff but could it have played out as follows:
- Sox have 6/$138M on the table (Wesley)
- Lester comes back to them with a higher offer from the Cubs
- BC increases his offer to 6/$145M and Lester agrees in principle (Beacon Hill Sports)
- Both sides are working to finalize the details (Bellhorn)
- Sox announce 6/$145M deal on Friday
- Sox have 6/$138M on the table (Wesley)
- Lester comes back to them with a higher offer from the Cubs
- BC increases his offer to 6/$145M and Lester agrees in principle (Beacon Hill Sports)
- Both sides are working to finalize the details (Bellhorn)
- Sox announce 6/$145M deal on Friday
Snoop Soxy Dogg said:
I agree with this strategy. I would have stopped at 120 million, and then let him go to Chicago for 130. There is a good chance that this contract will not work out for the organization that signs him anyway, and so I don't see the attraction.
I want Lester and would be willing to go to 6/150 for him. But if that's not sufficient, then I think the next best move is to go with an Orioles strategy - compile a rotation of solid guys all the way around. So...
sign Shields for 3/60 or 4/72
sign E. Santana for 4/64
trade Cespedes for Iwakuma or Ross or Latos
You could then have a rotation of Shields, Santana, Iwakuma, Buchholz, and Kelly, which would not feature any #1s, but which would hopefully be pretty solid through and through. If Buchholz reverts to ace form (which he's done on a couple of occasions), then this rotation becomes outstanding. If he doesn't, you have enough depth to make it work. I might also add, on a flier, Josh Johnson. If he has anything left in the tank, he could be a huge help. If not, oh well.
sign Shields for 3/60 or 4/72
sign E. Santana for 4/64
trade Cespedes for Iwakuma or Ross or Latos
You could then have a rotation of Shields, Santana, Iwakuma, Buchholz, and Kelly, which would not feature any #1s, but which would hopefully be pretty solid through and through. If Buchholz reverts to ace form (which he's done on a couple of occasions), then this rotation becomes outstanding. If he doesn't, you have enough depth to make it work. I might also add, on a flier, Josh Johnson. If he has anything left in the tank, he could be a huge help. If not, oh well.
Yeah, no need to go higher. If he isn't coming for 6/140+, he was never coming back. If they have to move on, so be it.mr_smith02 said:
I top out at 6/$144. Looks like a good plan "B". Don't agree on all the names but it's a doable idea.ivanvamp said:
Agree. And nobody can be really upset with the Sox. Offering 6/145, which is what is being thrown out there, is an absolutely fair deal for him.P'tucket said:
If he doesn't take it, the FO would be justified in drawing the line there.
Then again I think they overpay to beat Theo, so I could see 6/150 being their limit.
If they are willing to go 6/144 for Lester and he doesn't take it, go give 7/168 or 6/144 w a 24mm option to Scherzer and make him turn that down.
We have to be getting close to the territory where it just makes sense to give him a seventh year rather than increasing the AAV.
If 6/145 is on the table, I don't think 7/150 is necessarily an upgraded offer. 7/160 might be enough though.
Situation sucks. It's not hard to imagine how LL feels over this, considering I loathe the Cubs myself. Some of the worst people I know are Cub fans, and in all honesty, I came to despise how they poached our GM and then made a huge stink over the compensation issue. F them.
If 6/145 is on the table, I don't think 7/150 is necessarily an upgraded offer. 7/160 might be enough though.
Situation sucks. It's not hard to imagine how LL feels over this, considering I loathe the Cubs myself. Some of the worst people I know are Cub fans, and in all honesty, I came to despise how they poached our GM and then made a huge stink over the compensation issue. F them.
From someone we know and trust...
Rob Bradford @bradfo 27s28 seconds ago
Source familiar with negotiations doesn't forsee Lester signing soon. Still going through the process (meeting with teams, etc.)
Rob Bradford @bradfo 27s28 seconds ago
Source familiar with negotiations doesn't forsee Lester signing soon. Still going through the process (meeting with teams, etc.)
If this has anything to do with their bidding strategy, the whole lot of them should be canned.Hank Scorpio said:
I think it gets to a point where not signing him makes sense, probably before a 7th year makes sense.Hank Scorpio said:
I agree, at what point do you hamstring the team down the line? I think by continuing to add years, in combination with such a steep salary, the organization moves to hurting itself in the long haul.Cellar-Door said:
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