The Rebuild

[luckiestman]

Parcells seems to have been a brilliant team builder while BB seems to be a brilliant strategist and tactician. If you could run a simulation where you give each coach the same personnel, BB might come out on top, but it is getting harder and harder to believe that this is a guy you want running your program with total control.

Has he developed one coach into a decent head coach? Parcells has Payton, BB, and even Bowles(who lists him as a mentor). Let’s not even get into the Bill Walsh coaching development.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Parcells seems to have been a brilliant team builder while BB seems to be a brilliant strategist and tactician. If you could run a simulation where you give each coach the same personnel, BB might come out on top, but it is getting harder and harder to believe that this is a guy you want running your program with total control.

Has he developed one coach into a decent head coach? Parcells has Payton, BB, and even Bowles(who lists him as a mentor). Let’s not even get into the Bill Walsh coaching development.

Bowles?

Bill O'Brien has a much better career than Bowles.. honestly BOB was a good HC (and a crappy GM).

Best guys on Belichick's tree are the college guys (Saban, Ferentz, Hill, etc.)

 

[LoLsapien]

Are there any Tuna's or Belichick's out there that would immediately be "eff yeah" hires (ie. Parcells who immediately brings championship caliber cache) or "well this is really intriguing" ie. prying a highly respected Belichick-type coordinator away from their team?

10 year old me was absolutely pumped when Parcells joined the Pats. I can't think of a guy now who could conceivably come in here and immediately bring a high level of credibility and demand respect. And dealing 2 picks to the Jets for Belichick was a "holy shit" moment. Who could you imagine wanting to deal picks for?

 

[luckiestman]

Are there any Tuna's or Belichick's out there that would immediately be "eff yeah" hires (ie. Parcells who immediately brings championship caliber cache) or "well this is really intriguing" ie. prying a highly respected Belichick-type coordinator away from their team?

Michigan Harbaugh

 

[luckiestman]

Bowles?

Bill O'Brien has a much better career than Bowles.. honestly BOB was a good HC (and a crappy GM).

Best guys on Belichick's tree are the college guys (Saban, Ferentz, Hill, etc.)

Guilty. I liked Todd in NY and felt like he had a bad infrastructure but his results are not great.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Speaking of rebuilds... that 1992 team is what gives me some hope that it doesn't need to take years for the Pats to be halfway-decent again. Not a serious Super Bowl contender, mind you, but a playoff team.

The 1992 edition was atrocious offensively. Second to last in the league in scoring. QB was a historic disaster (Millen, Zolak, Hodson and the immortal Jeff Carlson). Our top RBs (Leonard Russell, Jon Vaughn, John Stephens) averaged well under 4 YPC collectively. The only pass-catching weapon was 30 year old Irving Fryar. We did have good OTs in Bruce Armstrong and Pat Harlow, but the interior line was trash (it's rookie Eugene Chung, everyone!).

And yet... we hired Parcells, drafted Bledsoe, leaned into the D, and we were a 10-6 playoff team all of two years later.

So there is always hope to change the direction of the franchise in relatively short order.

I think most people would agree that getting a great head coach (which, despite his many flaws, Parcells was) and a franchise QB (which, despite his many flaws, Bledsoe was at least close to being) would turn the Pats around. That Parcells run also got them Law, McGinest, Glenn, Milloy, Martin they had Coates. That’s a huge influx of high end talent in short order on top of a cornerstone LT, hall of very good TE and a few other useful pieces.

Problem being, getting either of those things (high end coach and QB) —assuming BB isn’t that coach - let alone both of them is going to be a big challenge. Most head coaches are mediocre to poor and incapable of turning around a franchise. Most QB prospects flop, even if you’re lucky enough to be in a spot to take one of the very best ones in a given year.

Parcells took a talent mostly bereft of talent and added a few legit hall of famers and a few hall of very gooders in a 2-3 year span. The chances of any front office pulling that off is slim. It’s sadly far more likely the post-BB Pats end up riding the QB/coach carousel for years than it is they have a Parcells-esque rebirth

 

[jercra]

I think most people would agree that getting a great head coach (which, despite his many flaws, Parcells was) and a franchise QB (which, despite his many flaws, Bledsoe was at least close to being) would turn the Pats around. That Parcells run also got them Law, McGinest, Glenn, Milloy, Martin they had Coates. That’s a huge influx of high end talent in short order on top of a cornerstone LT, hall of very good TE and a few other useful pieces.

Problem being, getting either of those things (high end coach and QB) —assuming BB isn’t that coach - let alone both of them is going to be a big challenge. Most head coaches are mediocre to poor and incapable of turning around a franchise. Most QB prospects flop, even if you’re lucky enough to be in a spot to take one of the very best ones in a given year.

Parcells took a talent mostly bereft of talent and added a few legit hall of famers and a few hall of very gooders in a 2-3 year span. The chances of any front office pulling that off is slim. It’s sadly far more likely the post-BB Pats end up riding the QB/coach carousel for years than it is they have a Parcells-esque rebirth

In Parcells tenure (93-96) he drafted at #1, #4, #23, and #7
BB's last 4 years (since the focus is on what he's done lately) have been #37, #15, #29, and #17

I think it's pretty obvious that Parcells had a much, much easier path to rebuilding talent than BB. BB has had one shot at drafting inside the top 10 and drafter a Hall-of-Famer in Richard Seymore. It's hardly fair to the two when it comes to rebuilding a team bereft of talent. Assuming the Pats don't materially improve their draft position this year, we may get another look at a top 10 spot and I see no reason to think BB won't be able to rebuild as fast and as well as Parcells did.

 

[lexrageorge]

In Parcells tenure (93-96) he drafted at #1, #4, #23, and #7
BB's last 4 years (since the focus is on what he's done lately) have been #37, #15, #29, and #17

And it was the lowest of those Parcells picks that ended up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame

 

[jercra]

And it was the lowest of those Parcells picks that ended up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame

Maybe this is for another thread, but is Vince Wilfork (drafted 21) headed for the Hall of Fame as well (as well as a bunch of higher round picks)?

 

[Deathofthebambino]

In Parcells tenure (93-96) he drafted at #1, #4, #23, and #7
BB's last 4 years (since the focus is on what he's done lately) have been #37, #15, #29, and #17

I think it's pretty obvious that Parcells had a much, much easier path to rebuilding talent than BB. BB has had one shot at drafting inside the top 10 and drafter a Hall-of-Famer in Richard Seymore. It's hardly fair to the two when it comes to rebuilding a team bereft of talent. Assuming the Pats don't materially improve their draft position this year, we may get another look at a top 10 spot and I see no reason to think BB won't be able to rebuild as fast and as well as Parcells did.

To be fair, the Pats traded out of the #21 to get to the #29 (and then used it on Cole Strange) and they traded out of the #23 to get the #37 (which they used on Dugger).

 

[jercra]

To be fair, the Pats traded out of the #21 to get to the #29 (and then used it on Cole Strange) and they traded out of the #23 to get the #37 (which they used on Dugger).

That's fair, but even if they didn't trade out, that's still significantly different than 3 top 10 draft spots, keeping in mind that the impact on a rebuild isn't just where you draft in the first round, but throughout the draft. The talent level at #33 is significantly different than at #53, etc. I don't think it's really very controversial to say that drafting high makes for easier rebuilds.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

That's fair, but even if they didn't trade out, that's still significantly different than 3 top 10 draft spots, keeping in mind that the impact on a rebuild isn't just where you draft in the first round, but throughout the draft. The talent level at #33 is significantly different than at #53, etc. I don't think it's really very controversial to say that drafting high makes for easier rebuilds.

Not at all, Parcells certainly had an easier rebuild to work with than BB vis a vis draft position at the top end.

Of course, Parcells didn't also land the greatest NFL player of all time in the 6th round either. Instead, he had to use the #1 overall on Bledsoe to start his rebuild.

It's really amazing seeing the draft talent, even later in the draft, that Parcells accumulated though, but Belichick got to utilize.

 

[tims4wins]

Not at all, Parcells certainly had an easier rebuild to work with than BB vis a vis draft position at the top end.

Of course, Parcells didn't also land the greatest NFL player of all time in the 6th round either. Instead, he had to use the #1 overall on Bledsoe to start his rebuild.

It's really amazing seeing the draft talent, even later in the draft, that Parcells accumulated though, but Belichick got to utilize.

The 95 and 96 drafts were incredible

Law
Ted Johnson
Martin
Hitchcock
Wohlabaugh
--
Glenn
Lawyer
Bruschi

 

[heavyde050]

The 95 and 96 drafts were incredible

No doubt. The Patriots got Curtis Martin the third round (95). It was just amazing. It still hurt so bad when Parcells left and took him.

 

[Justthetippett]

Not at all, Parcells certainly had an easier rebuild to work with than BB vis a vis draft position at the top end.

Of course, Parcells didn't also land the greatest NFL player of all time in the 6th round either. Instead, he had to use the #1 overall on Bledsoe to start his rebuild.

It's really amazing seeing the draft talent, even later in the draft, that Parcells accumulated though, but Belichick got to utilize.

Well, Bobby Grier accumulated...and then Parcells got salty about being on a young, ascendent SB team with excellent personnel because he was kind of a prick.

 

[j-man]

your biggest what if should be what if u had bill b in 97 instead of 2000

 

[sezwho]

No doubt. The Patriots got Curtis Martin the third round (95). It was just amazing. It still hurt so bad when Parcells left and took him.

Both still burn…but that was a lot of Lombardis ago !

 

[tims4wins]

This could go in a number of threads, but IMO a silver lining of the Cousin injury is that he's no longer a viable option at QB for next year's Pats.

 

[rodderick]

This could go in a number of threads, but IMO a silver lining of the Cousin injury is that he's no longer a viable option at QB for next year's Pats.

Yeah, who would want that guy at quarterback?

 

[tims4wins]

Yeah, who would want that guy at quarterback?

Can't tell if you're being serious here or not?

 

[rodderick]

Can't tell if you're being serious here or not?

Kirk Cousins is a top 10 QB in football, and the Patriots would be a better team in 2024 with him under center than they would with any other available alternative (through draft, trade or FA). Just can't understand why people still believe he can't play. He's a very, very good player. Of course, now at 35 and coming off an achilles tear I get being weary, but were it not for that he'd be a slam dunk signing.

 

[tims4wins]

Kirk Cousins is a top 10 QB in football, and the Patriots would be a better team in 2024 with him under center than they would with any other available alternative (through draft, trade or FA). Just can't understand why people still believe he can't play. He's a very, very good player. Of course, now at 35 and coming off an achilles tear I get being weary, but were it not for that he'd be a slam dunk signing.

I guess for me, with Cousins turning 36 next summer, I would only pull the trigger on that kind of deal if I thought the rest of the team was in place to win a title. Cousins has famously played for only guaranteed contracts. Even with the injury, he'll likely be worth the $40M or whatever in 2024. But if he's looking for a 4 year, $160M guaranteed deal, I want zero part of that.

I agree that he is a much, much, much better QB than Mac Jones, and top 10 in football.

 

[rodderick]

I guess for me, with Cousins turning 36 next summer, I would only pull the trigger on that kind of deal if I thought the rest of the team was in place to win a title. Cousins has famously played for only guaranteed contracts. Even with the injury, he'll likely be worth the $40M or whatever in 2024. But if he's looking for a 4 year, $160M guaranteed deal, I want zero part of that.

I agree that he is a much, much, much better QB than Mac Jones, and top 10 in football.

I don't think any team is giving him 4 years, but were it not for the injury, I'd do 2/95 or even something like 3/130. Probably would still do the first contract. Getting a guy like that and drafting toolsy QB prospects in rounds 2/3 in both 2024 and 2025 would be my preference. I really like Drake Maye, but don't think the Patriots will be in position to get either him or Williams, so much rather roll the dice on Kirk than overdrafting Penix or whatever. I don't think their QB situation is anywhere close to an easy fix otherwise.

 

[tims4wins]

I don't think any team is giving him 4 years, but were it not for the injury, I'd do 2/95 or even something like 3/130. Probably would still do the first contract. Getting a guy like that and drafting toolsy QB prospects in rounds 2/3 in both 2024 and 2025 would be my preference. I really like Drake Maye, but don't think the Patriots will be in position to get either him or Williams, so much rather roll the dice on Kirk than overdrafting Penix or whatever. I don't think their QB situation is anywhere close to an easy fix otherwise.

That's fair.

Of course, it takes two to tango. Why would Cousins want to come to NE? Chances are he is going to make good money no matter where he goes. I think he'll try to go somewhere to win. San Francisco, perhaps?

 

[rodderick]

That's fair.

Of course, it takes two to tango. Why would Cousins want to come to NE? Chances are he is going to make good money no matter where he goes. I think he'll try to go somewhere to win. San Francisco, perhaps?

Yeah, I do think he'll prioritize a good roster with a missing piece at QB, but just like with everything else in sports, you put the most money on the table and ask the guy to turn it down. More often than not they don't.

 

[tims4wins]

Yeah, I do think he'll prioritize a good roster with a missing piece at QB, but just like with everything else in sports, you put the most money on the table and ask the guy to turn it down. More often than not they don't.

Right. Personally my approach would be to build the line and skill positions and wait to figure out QB (unless their draft position is so high they can get Maye or Williams), but I can understand this approach. My fear with Cousins isn't that he's not good enough, it's that by the time they have the right OL and skill position guys Cousins will be cooked and/or his contract will be up again.

 

[rodderick]

Right. Personally my approach would be to build the line and skill positions and wait to figure out QB (unless their draft position is so high they can get Maye or Williams), but I can understand this approach. My fear with Cousins isn't that he's not good enough, it's that by the time they have the right OL and skill position guys Cousins will be cooked and/or his contract will be up again.

Thing is difference makers at OL and receiver just don't hit the market anymore, so you'll have to find those guys through the draft regardless. And if you use a high pick on QB, that's fewer ammo to figure out his supporting cast. I think it's likely that Cousins will be a better option at QB than any receiver/OL available in free agency would be at their respective positions. They need to remake the offense completely, I agree. QB is but one part of the process, they aren't anywhere near "missing piece" mode.

 

[lexrageorge]

The Kirk Cousins that made 4 Pro Bowls is not coming back. He will likely be limited the entire offseason and could even start 2024 on PUP. And he'll be 36. No way do I want the Patriots investing resources into a damaged Kirk Cousins, who is a good but hardly great QB and will end up costing a lot of money despite the above.

 

[tims4wins]

Thing is difference makers at OL and receiver just don't hit the market anymore, so you'll have to find those guys through the draft regardless. And if you use a high pick on QB, that's fewer ammo to figure out his supporting cast. I think it's likely that Cousins will be a better option at QB than any receiver/OL available in free agency would be at their respective positions. They need to remake the offense completely, I agree. QB is but one part of the process, they aren't anywhere near "missing piece" mode.

I agree, so my thought is that because they aren't anywhere near missing piece mode, why throw the money at Cousins? Just so they can win somewhere between 6 and 9 games? By the time this team is ready to truly compete again, Cousins will be done, IMO.

 

[BaseballJones]

The next great Patriots QB is probably like 8 years old right now.

 

[gammoseditor]

Thing is difference makers at OL and receiver just don't hit the market anymore, so you'll have to find those guys through the draft regardless. And if you use a high pick on QB, that's fewer ammo to figure out his supporting cast. I think it's likely that Cousins will be a better option at QB than any receiver/OL available in free agency would be at their respective positions. They need to remake the offense completely, I agree. QB is but one part of the process, they aren't anywhere near "missing piece" mode.

I’m not sure that’s true about receivers. AJ Brown, Tyreke Hill, Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Davante Adams, and Deandre Hopkins have all changed teams the last few years.

 

[tims4wins]

I’m not sure that’s true about receivers. AJ Brown, Tyreke Hill, Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Davante Adams, and Deandre Hopkins have all changed teams the last few years.

Yeah receivers hit the (trade) market all the time, the problem is they require both draft capital and huge $$ and BB doesn't seem willing to go down that path.

Edit: and given the state of the roster, I wouldn't want BB to take this kind of approach this offseason. They need all of the draft picks.

 

[rodderick]

I’m not sure that’s true about receivers. AJ Brown, Tyreke Hill, Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Davante Adams, and Deandre Hopkins have all changed teams the last few years.

None of those guys except for Hopkins were free agents and no player of that caliber is set to be a free agent in 2024. If you want to grab them, first round picks are involved, and using one of those to acquire a QB in the draft takes away from your capital to pursue a difference maker at receiver, either via draft or trade. Which was my point.