oh I have no doubt. Every job that opens is going to get good candidates, that's the nature of having only 32 in the world.
I was just noting that it's not a great spot given Bill's success and all the things being the next guy brings
The Rebuild
- Thread starter BaseballJones
- Start date
I was just noting that it's not a great spot given Bill's success and all the things being the next guy brings
I hear ya. Of course if we were in a better place there’d be no talk of moving on from Bill.
I do wonder if Kraft is more comfortable hiring someone he has a relationship with, as opposed to an unknown quantity? Will he just go with Mayo because he’s the heir-apparent-du-jour, or target one of the hot commodities @luckiestman mentioned.
Kraft gave a $100 million contract to Bledsoe when that was a ton of money. He’s willing to spend. He hires qualified people to run his businesses, empowers them, and evaluates them on pre determined basis. In sports it’s at the end of each season.
If Bill gets fired, I do think the Krafts will have to do some good PR and pitching if they want this to be a desirable job. They haven't spent like other teams. They haven't had to. Now they do, and they have to show that they will. They'll also have to decide how much they want to break from some of the Belichick traditions.
How did the Rooney’s hire Tomlin? I think it was an open process but I don’t remember for sure. Who was the last king tenured successful coach to leave an organization? Reid was with the Eagles for 14 years but did not have a SB.
maybe.... he's been one of the very lowest cash spenders in the NFL for years, and he was notoriously the cheapest owner in MLS for at least a decade. Now, he recently made some comments that were basically "Well Bill never asked for money, I would totally spend cash..." but it's not been his M.O., otherwise he seems like a good owner, but the standards for being a good owner when the guy you gave a bunch of power to uses that power to build the best dynasty is sports are very different from when the team is bad.
The biggest pro to me is that Kraft is a winning owner. Following in BB's footsteps is irrelevant when you are trying to resurrect a sinking ship that BB built. The Pats are one of the most valuable franchises in all of sports and the Kraft organization overall is world-class. They would have no problem bringing in talented people to try to create the next great Pats dynasty.
The problem is how does this work. If BB goes you lose pretty much everything he's built. When you concentrate that much power in one guy, losing that guy causes the entire thing to tumble. You need a new everything.
BB has stretched his tentacles from his kids to his buddies so deep that I don't think Kraft ever considered the idea you would have to blow it all up. BB was so great for so long that it was probably never in the extremes of Kraft's ideations that this would be necessary - a gradual transfer of institutional excellence wrought from years of teaching and culture would make BB's retirement a natural one. Most of us assumed this would occur and create a Pax Patannica.
This is blowing up in everyone's faces right now, and I don't know what Kraft is going to do.
The problem is how does this work. If BB goes you lose pretty much everything he's built. When you concentrate that much power in one guy, losing that guy causes the entire thing to tumble. You need a new everything.
BB has stretched his tentacles from his kids to his buddies so deep that I don't think Kraft ever considered the idea you would have to blow it all up. BB was so great for so long that it was probably never in the extremes of Kraft's ideations that this would be necessary - a gradual transfer of institutional excellence wrought from years of teaching and culture would make BB's retirement a natural one. Most of us assumed this would occur and create a Pax Patannica.
This is blowing up in everyone's faces right now, and I don't know what Kraft is going to do.
Teams replace their entire coaching staffs in some cases. Yes, Kraft would need to hire a coach and GM, but that is hardly an unsurpassable hurdle.
Bad teams replace their entire coaching staff. Bad teams replace their front offices. We're talking about a team with the Pats history cleaning the House of Belichick, which includes both. There are no historical comps for what is happening right now with this org.
I don't see how the team could avoid spending on players without it showing up in cap space. The Pats do have a ton of space next season, but I'm not at all convinced that the team is not going to let whoever is in charge use it.
Edit: Put another way, how do you spend a lot of cash beyond the cap on players in a year? You give out a big bonus on a long contract- probably to a QB. The Pats had Cam cheap dealing with the Brady hangover and then a rookie contract at QB. Other positions they haven't had anyone I would want to give a top of the market contract to. They haven't found a player to back up the Brinks for in FA or on the trade market, but why assume that was an ownership dictate rather than how the GM decided to allocate resources?
Last edited:
So cash spending is very different than cap spending, a lot of teams structure and re-structure deals in ways that let them save cap space at the expense of cash. The Patriots have only had 1 big cash year recently... 2021, all those signing bonuses. Now the argument Kraft would probably make is that teams that go heavy on cash too many years in a row often need to re-set and that can cause problems with talent... which is a reasonable position, but that makes it harder to add top talent.
Right the cash eventually shows up in the cap. Not being a leader in cash spending just means is this team hasn't borrowed from the future much. I don't see why a prospective GM candidate should think the Krafts are cheap. If anything a GM candidate should be excited at a job with a fairly clean slate - not really having much of previous teams on the books.
Cash spending eventually leads to cap spending. Pats had little cap space in 2019/20, then made a big splash in 2021, which, in turn, left them cap crunched in 2022. Team will have lots of cap space again this offseason, so a snapshot of cash spending will probably look a lot different a year from now.
Maybe it’s looking through rose colored glasses, but I don’t think this franchise is that far away from legit contention.
Scenario 1: They stink, spend $ on Cousins, draft MHJ, and improve the o-line with FA and the draft. That’s a team that can contend.
Scenario 2: They stink, draft Williams or Maye and they show promise, spend $ in FA to revamp the line and maybe improve the WR’s through either trade or FA.
In both, most of the defense returns to full health and starts with a CB unit of JCJ, Gonzalez, and the Joneses. Add Barnore and White to that and it’s got the makings of a pretty good defense.
Scenario 1: They stink, spend $ on Cousins, draft MHJ, and improve the o-line with FA and the draft. That’s a team that can contend.
Scenario 2: They stink, draft Williams or Maye and they show promise, spend $ in FA to revamp the line and maybe improve the WR’s through either trade or FA.
In both, most of the defense returns to full health and starts with a CB unit of JCJ, Gonzalez, and the Joneses. Add Barnore and White to that and it’s got the makings of a pretty good defense.
I'm a much more focused baseball fan than football. Is it possible to trade a majority of the teams veterans for future value like in baseball?
How much can you really do at the NFL trade deadline to help tank and start the rebuild?
Agreed. I don’t get the Cousins interest. No Justin Jefferson today and he’s been mediocre against the Bears.
BB d coordinated a team that went to the AFC championship game with Vinny Interceptaverde. He might not mind a guy like Kirk. Also helps him get Shula
Eh, disagree with both your points. A team from over 30 years ago is irrelevant and putting the best team possible out there helps him catch Shula. Cousins doesn’t get to bring Justin Jefferson with him.
Draft a WR who will be good year 1 instead of a QB. And Kirk wins a lot of games so I don’t see how it is irrelevant to catching Shula.
Just saying if you think signing Kirk Cousins is his best chance of catching Shula I disagree. He has as many wins as Mac Jones this year.
Bro, you can disagree with me about Kirk but if you say shit to me this dumb again I’m putting you on ignore. The pats have scored 55 points the Vikings have scored 110.
They have Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and a much better offensive line. It’s football not tennis. The rest of the team matters.
Sounds like you’re making the case for scenario 1 that LM was referring to above.
I’m not, because even with those pieces the Vikings are not very good. I like scenario 1 minus Cousins. Overpaying a second tier QB is a bad choice.
Do the Patriots have any significant building block pieces? You can dream on Gonzalez. Judon will be 32 next year and probably isn’t a key player on the next great Patriots team. Feels like almost starting from scratch here.
Smart people make a lot of money fading Kirk Cousins when he's playing outdoors.
Smart people make a fortune fading Cousins when he doesn't have JJ.
If people hate Mac's decision making, oh boy, then Cousins is not your man. Dude consistently makes terrible decisions at the worst times in games. And he'll come with about a $40mil price tag.
Gonzalez, Keon White, Duggar, and Barmore are all long term building blocks.
Dugger is a FA, Barmore has been... Okay? At this point he's much closer to being Adam Butler than a building block. Keion White is way too soon to tell either way.
Dugger is likely gone as he'll get overpaid as UFA.
Barmore has been mostly invisible, but I'm no expert on DL play. The first two are defensive building blocks, as are the Jones trio (who are all hurt now) and probably Mapu. There's talent on the defensive side of the ball - just way too many injuries right now.
On offense, still hard to judge Boutte as he was always going to be a bit of a longer term project anyway. Douglas was dynamic before he got concussed. Everyone else is either fungible (Bourne, Henry), simply meh, or well below the standards we should set as fans for being worthy of being on the team (Parker, Trent Brown, most of the rest of the OL).
Barmore is a guy who I had hoped would “pop” a lot more by now. He hasn’t been bad but is he a long-term impact guy? No idea.
Yes, maybe, no and no on building blocks. The latter two haven’t popped enough for me to say they are.
there is no good way out of this
A mayo is your next HC now if u go 1-16 2-15 who knows the q here is does mrkraft take gm powers away and is bill ok with that to get the rec in 2025
B u blow everything up and trade a 1st to denver or tenn for their coachs
because mrkraft is not going to just get a oc vrabel from tenn could be a good choice for u
A mayo is your next HC now if u go 1-16 2-15 who knows the q here is does mrkraft take gm powers away and is bill ok with that to get the rec in 2025
B u blow everything up and trade a 1st to denver or tenn for their coachs
because mrkraft is not going to just get a oc vrabel from tenn could be a good choice for u
Last edited:
No. The Pats first may be way too valuable this year.
There is always new coaching talent hitting the market every offseason; I don't think the Pats will have trouble finding coaches if they need them, unless the Krafts focus too heavily on retreads. Honestly don't see an issue with promoting Mayo.
The D has a number of quality players. No reason we shouldn’t be able to field *at least* a league average-to-above average D for the next couple years.
The O has nothing. Literally nothing. Burn it down and throw the ashes in the harbor.
Mayo could be good or he could be vance joseph i think mayo will be your pick
steveton in the right scheme can be good pop douglas has potinal i wouild start mailk C for the rest of the year
Windows in the NFL are short most guys are only signed 3-4 years, Judon is a key piece, Gonzalez, probably White.
Coming into the year you would say Onwenwu assuming re-signing. If his struggles are mostly injury based might get a nice discount.
A lot of good talent on D too, Tavai has been quietly excellent this year, Peppers, you have the Jones' on D...
The D has a lot of talent and much of it young. Offense is much worse, but teams turn over a lot of the roster, this spring and next will be about getting the building blocks. on offense.
Coming into the year you would say Onwenwu assuming re-signing. If his struggles are mostly injury based might get a nice discount.
A lot of good talent on D too, Tavai has been quietly excellent this year, Peppers, you have the Jones' on D...
The D has a lot of talent and much of it young. Offense is much worse, but teams turn over a lot of the roster, this spring and next will be about getting the building blocks. on offense.
Barmore sees more double teams in one game than Malcolm Brown saw in his entire career. He does not put up a lot of pressure or sack numbers but when healthy Christian Barmore commands significant attention from the other teams OL and makes life much easier for guys like Judon and Uche.
Seems like if you were to poll others on what needs attention/improvement the most, the results would overwhelmingly be offence.
The entire O-line, QB, & WRs leave a lot to be desired. I don't think that is a controversial thing to say. We've harped on it time and again this season. The only players on O I think I'd have any remote interest in coming back next year are Malik Cunningham (why not), maybe HH, Demario Douglas, & maybe KB84. How quickly can a complete overhaul/rebuild on O take place? We'd need to get at least 3 key pieces in FA/draft: QB, T, WR. That doesn't leave the wide open holes we have at C (Andrews' decline is worrisome), both T spots (so we need 2 Ts), G. Plus, KB84 needs to be a #3 WR at best.
Can't imagine Zeke will be back. Rhamondre will be a pending FA next year after the next season ends.
Maybe our IOL picks this past year in the draft can be depth next year.
But my question that I haven't seen anyone bring up here yet is: assuming BB is gone, do we assume Steve leaves with him? I think the D stands out decently, especially with full health in the secondary (once we get there). DE/EDGE might be a concern depending on Uche & Judon's future here.
Would we willingly let Steve leave & have no concern? Are we confident that Mayo would keep the D in stride with where they are & what they can be?
I'll let others who are more knowledgeable than I chime in.
The entire O-line, QB, & WRs leave a lot to be desired. I don't think that is a controversial thing to say. We've harped on it time and again this season. The only players on O I think I'd have any remote interest in coming back next year are Malik Cunningham (why not), maybe HH, Demario Douglas, & maybe KB84. How quickly can a complete overhaul/rebuild on O take place? We'd need to get at least 3 key pieces in FA/draft: QB, T, WR. That doesn't leave the wide open holes we have at C (Andrews' decline is worrisome), both T spots (so we need 2 Ts), G. Plus, KB84 needs to be a #3 WR at best.
Can't imagine Zeke will be back. Rhamondre will be a pending FA next year after the next season ends.
Maybe our IOL picks this past year in the draft can be depth next year.
But my question that I haven't seen anyone bring up here yet is: assuming BB is gone, do we assume Steve leaves with him? I think the D stands out decently, especially with full health in the secondary (once we get there). DE/EDGE might be a concern depending on Uche & Judon's future here.
Would we willingly let Steve leave & have no concern? Are we confident that Mayo would keep the D in stride with where they are & what they can be?
I'll let others who are more knowledgeable than I chime in.
Patriots sitting on 6th in the draft order as of today at 1-5 with a really good shot at being 1-7 with Buffalo and Miami up next.
How does the next few weeks look for our "rivals"?
CAROLINA: hosts Houston and Indy. Both are decent-ish but Carolina looks blah.
CHICAGO: hosts Las Vegas and at LAC. Fields (maybe) vs Hoyer!
DENVER: hosts GB and KC. Likely gonna be 2 more losses.
ARIZONA: visits Seattle and home against Baltimore, so staring at 1-7 as well.
NYG: hosts Washington and the NYJ. They were feisty last night, so hopefully they can grab 1 of these.
How does the next few weeks look for our "rivals"?
CAROLINA: hosts Houston and Indy. Both are decent-ish but Carolina looks blah.
CHICAGO: hosts Las Vegas and at LAC. Fields (maybe) vs Hoyer!
DENVER: hosts GB and KC. Likely gonna be 2 more losses.
ARIZONA: visits Seattle and home against Baltimore, so staring at 1-7 as well.
NYG: hosts Washington and the NYJ. They were feisty last night, so hopefully they can grab 1 of these.
Seems like the Pats will win 5-6 games and end up drafting 6-8th which puts them in a bit of a weird spot. Not high enough to acquire a franchise altering talent (Williams, Maye, Harrison, Fashanu) but in the second tier of OT, WR, QB. If Belichick is still in charge, I imagine a trade down or taking Bowers, Alt or (hopefully not) one of the EDGE guys would be the most likely scenarios. Obviously, a lot will change with some of these prospects but as of now, there’s not a guy in that “just outside the top 5” range that looks particularly exciting.
Luckily, a lot of these awful teams have to play each other so it’s possible the Pats end up backing their way into a top 3 pick but Denver, Carolina and Chicago are absolutely putrid and I don’t see CHI (x2) or Denver passing on a QB or Harrison. The Giants and Arizona may or may not be in the QB market (they should be) but will certainly be in on Harrison. All of those teams likely need a franchise tackle, unless the Giants give Neal another year to sort himself out.
The Pats having a horrendous year and walking out of the draft with the 3rd best tackle or a 2nd tier WR like Egbuka or the #3 or 4 QB seems like the worst of all worlds scenario.
Luckily, a lot of these awful teams have to play each other so it’s possible the Pats end up backing their way into a top 3 pick but Denver, Carolina and Chicago are absolutely putrid and I don’t see CHI (x2) or Denver passing on a QB or Harrison. The Giants and Arizona may or may not be in the QB market (they should be) but will certainly be in on Harrison. All of those teams likely need a franchise tackle, unless the Giants give Neal another year to sort himself out.
The Pats having a horrendous year and walking out of the draft with the 3rd best tackle or a 2nd tier WR like Egbuka or the #3 or 4 QB seems like the worst of all worlds scenario.
6 games seems wildly optimistic I think. It's safe to assume we lose to Buffalo and Miami (and yes, any given Sunday, I know) that puts us at 1-7. To get to 6 wins that means they go 5-4 over the last 9?
We'd have to sweep Washington, Indy, NYG, and Denver and pick up a win either in Pittsburgh or at home against the Jets. Doable? I guess, but man--5-1 in that group of games seems tough from where we are.
I know it's been a lonnnnnnnng time since we've been at a point like this (many SOSHers weren't even alive when this was the case) but this is futility like we saw back in 1990 and 1992, when the Pats won 1 and 2 games, respectively. It's very hard right now for me to see which games left on the roster they can/will win. Can? Yes sure. Will? No way of knowing. Every opponent right now - even the Jets - looks much, much better than the Patriots do at this point.
perhaps optimistic. But I could see them “stealing“ a win from one of Buffalo (who, despite being massively more talented almost lost to the hapless Giants), Jets, Chargers (constantly underwhelming, historically don’t travel well to the east coast in December). So, assuming 1-4 against the Chargers + divisional games.
Colts with Minshew, Giants, Denver, Washington, Pittsburgh all seem coin flips. As bad as the Pats have performed, those teams have at times looked equally bad. Could see 3 wins there.
KC is an almost definite loss.
the defense is still solid enough despite Judon/Gonzalez to keep them in enough games where they will likely come away with a few ugly wins. Between injuries, luck and the inherent variance in the NFL, I just don’t see this team collapsing into a 2 win team even as bad as things look now.
That said, I am still admittedly on the “BB gives the team an edge as a coach” bandwagon despite the mounting evidence that he can’t overcome the talent deficiencies on the roster.
Speaking of rebuilds... that 1992 team is what gives me some hope that it doesn't need to take years for the Pats to be halfway-decent again. Not a serious Super Bowl contender, mind you, but a playoff team.
The 1992 edition was atrocious offensively. Second to last in the league in scoring. QB was a historic disaster (Millen, Zolak, Hodson and the immortal Jeff Carlson). Our top RBs (Leonard Russell, Jon Vaughn, John Stephens) averaged well under 4 YPC collectively. The only pass-catching weapon was 30 year old Irving Fryar. We did have good OTs in Bruce Armstrong and Pat Harlow, but the interior line was trash (it's rookie Eugene Chung, everyone!).
And yet... we hired Parcells, drafted Bledsoe, leaned into the D, and we were a 10-6 playoff team all of two years later.
So there is always hope to change the direction of the franchise in relatively short order.