The Red Sox have fired Chaim Bloom

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BaseballJones

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Even still, the organization today is in a better position than the organization was in 2019. The problem is during that time there were 2-3 last place finishes.
Agreed. "Last place" finish, while true, doesn't quite capture things, as the AL East has been an absolute monster division for the past few years. This team probably would be middle of the pack in almost any other division, which, while not great, looks a lot less worse, if that makes sense.

The org. is definitely better off now than it was in 2019 and I think that the next GM - unless he or she is utterly incompetent - should be able to take this team pretty quickly to the next level.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Some of Bloom's decisions about free agents puzzled me. Eovaldi and Wacha performed well for the Sox. I was very disappointed that it did not appear the Red Sox saw value in re-signing them.
They made an offer to Eovaldi. One he turned down and then reportedly came back to see if it was still on the table, but they'd spent the money already. Timing matters.

Same thing with Wacha. He didn't sign until February. Presumably that was a result of seeking more than anyone was willing to pay and having to settle for the Padres deal. I imagine if that sort of deal was on the table in December when Bloom was doing his significant spending, he'd have jumped on it. Timing matters.
 

dhappy42

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We have more holes than some want to acknowledge. I mean if we have very few holes, why are we on track to finish under .500?

I know, prospects. But that’s a crapshoot. Just like signing FAs is a crapshoot.

To my non-expert eye, we have at least 4 holes in the starting 9. And we have 3 giant holes in the starting rotation.
Where are the four holes in the starting 9? Completely agree re pitching.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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They didn't trade them because they valued their shot at the postseason more than the marginal draft pick improvements the would have gained by getting under the tax. It didn't work out with the playoffs. That's how it goes sometimes.

Trading Vazquez didn't hurt the playoff push because they were able to replace his outfit with the McGuire deal.
One of the underappreciated things from the Bloom era was his ability to move off his mistakes. Specifically Diekman and Barnes. There are many baseball ops guys that would have let those situations get worse.
 

Myt1

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This thread is two warring decks on the HMS Confirmation Bias, followed by a couple guys in a dinghy going, “Ehhhh, he was a mixed bag.” :)
 

chrisfont9

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This is where I am (except for being down on Bloom, which I'm not).
In addition, I’m pinning this season on Cora. The lack of preparation evidenced in mental lapses all over the field is on Cora. Sure, the pitching wasn’t great, but it should have been good enough to not suffer series losses or sweeps at the hands the Pirates (0-3), Cardinals (0-3), Rockies (1-2), Angels (0-3 in Anaheim), Guardians (1-2 in Cleveland), Marlins (0-3), A’s (1-2 in Oakland), Giants (1-2) and Nationals (1-2). (Total of 5-21)
One game I was listening to on the radio, Joe and Will were talking about how the Sox had a winning record against the best pitchers in the league. They mentioned hearing from a player that they really got up for those games and concentrated on grinding out at-bats. Great. But that should be EVERY game. That it wasn’t is on the manager and his coaches.
I used to be fine with Cora, but I no longer am. Win even 5 of those games noted above, particularly before the deadline, and this is a completely different season. The Sox would have been in playoff position and Bloom would have been buying pitching at the deadline instead of standing pat. I put those losses on Cora for his preparation.
Now, I expect the Sox to be much better next year. With the luxury tax reset, money coming off the books and good young players coming up, the new POBO should have no problem making significant improvements to the roster. Maybe enough so that not even Cora can screw it up.
But if they win -- and I expect they will -- I'm giving the credit to Bloom for getting them there.
That is troubling, matches what we see, and sounds like a Cora problem, as well as maybe a team culture problem.
 

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I've made this comparison before, but the Pats and Sox have been on fairly similar paths since their stars left before the 2020 season. At least the Sox bottomed out in 2020. It's too bad the Pats didn't.

2020: star leaves; Sox bottom out and get Mayer; Pats are mediocre and get mid-round pick Mac Jones
2021: things break well for the most part, unexpected playoff appearances; Sox got stronger as the season went on, Pats didn't
2022: moderate expectations for both teams; both teams finish under .500 and are never realistic contenders
2023: same expectations; same result for the Sox; likely the same result for the Pats
2024: ??
 

ookami7m

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When you don’t make any trades, the strength of the farm system increase. When you do, it gets worse. This isn’t really rocket science.
The SoxProspects boys theorized on today's podcast that Bloom was too rigid in his valuations on trades/acquisitions which led to the appearance of indecisiveness. They posit that he was not getting the deal he wanted, and so didn't take deals that were still good values and good moves for the team.
 

Fishercat

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I see a good number of holes. I'd say they need 2-3 starting pitchers, upgrade at 2B, a decision to make in RF long-term, and defensive issues all over the field. Top 5 farm system is debatable, but the system is in a much better spot than when Bloom got here that is for sure. They've got some pieces to like long-term, but they've got a long ways to go in order to become a true championship contender.
To add on a bit to this (because I agree), one of the things I don't think Chaim was ever able to prove that he was able to get in those excess value guys. He was really good at getting 1 WAR or 2 WAR type players on a discount or from the bargain bin, but at some point contending teams need to have players who contribute more than that. I think in Bloom's three full seasons the best "newly acquired" single season performance was Hernandez in 2021. I like Bloom so I bet he could, but that improvement from 0 WAR to 2 WAR type guys needs to also have bigger producers in there to push a team beyond that point. That long ways is getting more production for some of those positional spots - especially if the rotation isn't filled with plus arms. Like...you don't need Acuna or Ohtani to win but a few guys who can produce at an all-star caliber level are often needed to push a team that way.

Maybe we needed to wait for prospects to fill it, maybe the owners thought Bloom was incapable of it, that could be part of the equation
 

lexrageorge

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I think the real problem, which has only occasionally been touched on in this thread, is the strides that BAL and TB have made with young talent in that same time period.
Two teams that were (a) starting from a much stronger position in terms of minor league talent in 2020; and (b) were patient enough to allow their prospects to move through the system until the reached the major league and AAA levels. Unclear the farm systems of either team would be better than the Sox in 2025. Just that Henry & Co did not want to wait that long.
 

cannonball 1729

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I can see both of these as reasons. But it feels unseemly to do it in season instead of after, as most such firings go.
I think this is pretty standard. Just looking around the league: the White Sox cleaned house last month, and last year, the Rangers and Tigers fired their GM's in August and the Royals fired theirs in September.

Free agency starts in mid-November and winter meetings are in the first week of December, so it's useful to give the new GM enough time to make a plan for the offseason, which means that they're better off starting the search before the season ends. September is kind of a dead time for GM's of eliminated teams anyway, so there's no harm in letting him go now.
 

Ale Xander

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Agreed. "Last place" finish, while true, doesn't quite capture things, as the AL East has been an absolute monster division for the past few years. This team probably would be middle of the pack in almost any other division, which, while not great, looks a lot less worse, if that makes sense.

The org. is definitely better off now than it was in 2019 and I think that the next GM - unless he or she is utterly incompetent - should be able to take this team pretty quickly to the next level.
If you are crediting them for being in a tough division, don’t you also have to deduct for having one the largest revenues?

How are they getting beat by the Rays, especially when you take away their wunderkind exec?
 

Fishercat

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Two teams that were (a) starting from a much stronger position in terms of minor league talent in 2020; and (b) were patient enough to allow their prospects to move through the system until the reached the major league and AAA levels. Unclear the farm systems of either team would be better than the Sox in 2025. Just that Henry & Co did not want to wait that long.
Having early first round picks to get their top three prospects and star catcher might've helped there too for Baltimore.
 

RS2004foreever

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I think the real problem, which has only occasionally been touched on in this thread, is the strides that BAL and TB have made with young talent in that same time period.
Therein hangs the tale.
The Rays won 96 games in 2019, made the World Series in 2020, won 100 games in 2021, made the playoffs in 2022 despite a raft of injuries and are 1 game back for the division lead again.
 

BaseballJones

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If you are crediting them for being in a tough division, don’t you also have to deduct for having one the largest revenues?

How are they getting beat by the Rays, especially when you take away their wunderkind exec?
The Rays beat almost everyone, regardless of payroll. I don't know how they do it, but they do.
 

Fishercat

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If you are crediting them for being in a tough division, don’t you also have to deduct for having one the largest revenues?

How are they getting beat by the Rays, especially when you take away their wunderkind exec?
Their payroll is 90m less than New York for the same number of wins and 30m less than Toronto, Baltimore is obscenely cost controlled because they were trash for a half decade, and we were trying to get a Tampa type development system going but they just canned the dude trying to get there?
 

lexrageorge

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Having early first round picks to get their top three prospects and star catcher might've helped there too for Baltimore.
The Sox got some nice players from their recent first round picks and Bloom has been criticized in this thread for picking the right players. Go figure.
 

Fishercat

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If teams are going to fire their GM because they spend more than the Rays and their team is worse, there's gonna be like 5 GMs left in baseball.
 

LogansDad

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One thing he wasn’t good at was trading FOR prospects. Either because he didn’t do it (JDM) or he misfired (Renfrow).
I don't really get this take.

He got Winckowski, Luis de la Rosa (who was spectacular in A ball this year, and just turned 21), and Grant Gambrell (currently knocking on the MLB door, may be up on Opening Day next year) for Benintendi.

The previously mentioned Vazquez trade was a coup.

Getting anything for Hunter Renfroe should be considered a win, and while Binelas needs to cut down on his K's, he has serious pop and speed to go with it. I honestly don't understand the infatuation people around here have with Renfroe, Verdugo obviously doesn't hit as many bombs, but is a way more useful player.

Getting Rosier in the deal for Groome is looking better every month.

Angel Pierre (Josh Taylor trade) is 19 and put up a .420 OBP across the FCL/DSL.

Obviously the Mookie trade is what it is, but Verdugo was still a "prospect" at the time and Wong has turned out to be useful.

All of the trades for minor leaguers who turned out to be complete nothings came from giving up complete nothings.
 

Fishercat

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The Sox got some nice players from their recent first round picks and Bloom has been criticized in this thread for picking the right players. Go figure.
Yeah, I don't get it. Like, kudos to Baltimore for getting those names right too, but Baltimore is where they're at largely because they were among the worst teams in baseball from 2017-2021. This is the first year they've been first in the East since 2014, and the second since 1997.
 

chrisfont9

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I think the real problem, which has only occasionally been touched on in this thread, is the strides that BAL and TB have made with young talent in that same time period.
Yeah, so much of the debate here is how Bloom handled decisions which amounted to acquiring complementary players, on the theory that if you have enough decent guys everywhere you can hang with the top teams. And the answer is, sure, yeah, you can, it's baseball. But a much clearer pathway to success is a core of young, elite guys (Bal, TB, Atl) or even prime age elite guys (Mookie). By all appearances Bloom's plan was to accumulate talent and either hope some of them hit that level, or that some guys on that level become available at a time when you have either the prospects or the cap room to get them. Devers has flirted with that level and maybe Bello and/or Casas get there. Teel, Mayer and Anthony have those sorts of ceilings (but tbd). The cap room is there if Soto hits the market.

But until then, they are working at a disadvantage within their division, and whatever trades we wish Bloom made probably weren't going to change that.
 

lexrageorge

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Also, how many recent prospects, aside from Jeter Downs, have lost tremendous value under Chaim? And every single organization across MLB has its share of Jeter Downs-like prospects.
 

Auger34

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The Sox got some nice players from their recent first round picks and Bloom has been criticized in this thread for picking the right players. Go figure.
This is 100% a strawman. No one is "criticizing" him for it, there are some who don't give him a ton of credit for picking the extremely obvious player that fell to him (Mayer and Teel).

I think he drafted very well and you still have to pull the trigger...but I am also not going to pretend like he unearthed diamonds in the rough with those two when literally every fan who even somewhat follows the draft was screaming for him to take Mayer and Teel
 

JM3

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The SoxProspects boys theorized on today's podcast that Bloom was too rigid in his valuations on trades/acquisitions which led to the appearance of indecisiveness. They posit that he was not getting the deal he wanted, and so didn't take deals that were still good values and good moves for the team.
Yeah, I thought their use of the word "inflexible" was a really valid criticism of Bloom (as opposed to the "indecisive" narratives which I think are bad). & they gave some good examples like going into '22 without a RF which I hated at the time, too.
 

Auger34

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Chaim took on a bad contract when trading Renfroe to get a better prospect. In any evaluation of the deal, that should be mentioned. It's incredibly disingenuous to not bring that up
 

lexrageorge

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This is 100% a strawman. No one is "criticizing" him for it, there are some who don't give him a ton of credit for picking the extremely obvious player that fell to him (Mayer and Teel).

I think he drafted very well and you still have to pull the trigger...but I am also not going to pretend like he unearthed diamonds in the rough with those two when literally every fan who even somewhat follows the draft was screaming for him to take Mayer and Teel
So, what does it matter if they were "diamonds in the rough" or "no brainer selections"? Nobody is saying Baltimore should take off 10 wins because they drafted some obvious players when they had a number of high draft picks a few years in a row. If Mayer and Teel work out, how or why they were drafted will be nothing more than a footnote.
 

Auger34

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Yeah, I thought their use of the word "inflexible" was a really valid criticism of Bloom (as opposed to the "indecisive" narratives which I think are bad). & they gave some good examples like going into '22 without a RF which I hated at the time, too.
Point very well taken. I think that's a much more fair critique
 

ookami7m

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Yeah, I thought their use of the word "inflexible" was a really valid criticism of Bloom (as opposed to the "indecisive" narratives which I think are bad). & they gave some good examples like going into '22 without a RF which I hated at the time, too.
Agreed. The 22 RF debacle and the SP the last two years really look like a guy caught flat footed when his original plan didn't work.
 

Auger34

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So, what does it matter if they were "diamonds in the rough" or "no brainer selections"? Nobody is saying Baltimore should take off 10 wins because they drafted some obvious players when they had a number of high draft picks a few years in a row. If Mayer and Teel work out, how or why they were drafted will be nothing more than a footnote.
This is taking what I posted in a completely different direction and still doesnt address that your original point was a complete fabrication. Who in the hell is "criticizing" Chaim for taking Mayer and Teel? Or Roman Anthony?

As I said in the original post, Chaim had to pull the trigger on Mayer and Teel. He did. It was the right decision.

Nobody is saying Baltimore should take off 10 wins, including me. I don't know what that adds to any of this.
 

moondog80

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Chaim took on a bad contract when trading Renfroe to get a better prospect. In any evaluation of the deal, that should be mentioned. It's incredibly disingenuous to not bring that up
Two prospects. Neither of which look like they will amount to much, but that's the nature of the game.

Which is not to say it was a good deal. I hated it the time and it looks worse now. But the main motivation of that deal was Hamilton and Binelas.
 

Auger34

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Two prospects. Neither of which look like they will amount to much, but that's the nature of the game.

Which is not to say it was a good deal. I hated it the time and it looks worse now. But the main motivation of that deal was Hamilton and Binelas.
Two prospects, correct....and the reason he got those prospects was because he took on a bad contract. The bad contract which isn't being mentioned in multiple posts that are talking about other posters being "obsessed" with Renfroe and that it wasn't that bad of a trade.

For the record, I actually liked the trade at the time. I liked JBJ and thought he had more in the tank...it turns out he didn't.
 

Jimbodandy

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I've made this comparison before, but the Pats and Sox have been on fairly similar paths since their stars left before the 2020 season. At least the Sox bottomed out in 2020. It's too bad the Pats didn't.

2020: star leaves; Sox bottom out and get Mayer; Pats are mediocre and get mid-round pick Mac Jones
2021: things break well for the most part, unexpected playoff appearances; Sox got stronger as the season went on, Pats didn't
2022: moderate expectations for both teams; both teams finish under .500 and are never realistic contenders
2023: same expectations; same result for the Sox; likely the same result for the Pats
2024: ??
Difference obviously is that one great football draft can turn a franchise around in a span of months, while a great MLB draft takes a few years before guys start showing up at high levels of the minors generally. Two great NFL drafts in a row can make a 7-10 team a legit Super Bowl contender in like 15 months.
 

moondog80

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Two prospects, correct....and the reason he got those prospects was because he took on a bad contract. The bad contract which isn't being mentioned in multiple posts that are talking about other posters being "obsessed" with Renfroe and that it wasn't that bad of a trade.

For the record, I actually liked the trade at the time. I liked JBJ and thought he had more in the tank...it turns out he didn't.
The deal would have been better had they also made a second deal to acquire an actual RF for a team that was coming off an ALCS appearance. Water under the bridge, so be it.
 

RedOctober3829

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To add on a bit to this (because I agree), one of the things I don't think Chaim was ever able to prove that he was able to get in those excess value guys. He was really good at getting 1 WAR or 2 WAR type players on a discount or from the bargain bin, but at some point contending teams need to have players who contribute more than that. I think in Bloom's three full seasons the best "newly acquired" single season performance was Hernandez in 2021. I like Bloom so I bet he could, but that improvement from 0 WAR to 2 WAR type guys needs to also have bigger producers in there to push a team beyond that point. That long ways is getting more production for some of those positional spots - especially if the rotation isn't filled with plus arms. Like...you don't need Acuna or Ohtani to win but a few guys who can produce at an all-star caliber level are often needed to push a team that way.

Maybe we needed to wait for prospects to fill it, maybe the owners thought Bloom was incapable of it, that could be part of the equation
Agreed on all points here. He was mostly good at finding diamonds in the rough. Quick examples are Wacha, Schrieber, Whitlock, Bernadino, and if you want to throw in Pivetta I'll grant you him too. The catching tandem of Wong/McGuire is another example. They could possibly have something in Urias and maybe Pablo Reyes but at the end of the day are these guys making a big difference in being a playoff team or not? No they're not. There's a ceiling on your team if you're constantly relying on low-cost, high-reward(or oft-injured guys and relying on them staying healthy) players to be mainstays on the team. Eventually, you need some upper level talents to lead the roster and have those diamonds in the rough to supplement the roster. Now in Bloom's defense, how many offseasons did he have the opportunity to spend money to get that talent? His free agent signings in terms of outside the organization went from the Story deal then a Grand Canyon-sized chasm to the Kenley deal. They just did not spend a lot in FA since he got here plus they didn't really have the level of prospect capital needed to trade for plus arms until this offseason. At the end of the day, the level of talent at the major league level was not consistently good enough to contend for playoff spots in his time here. The results are the results and I'm really not sure how better of a position the organization is than where it was in 2019 when he got here. In some areas, it's improved but at the big league level there's a lot of work to do. It starts with acquiring 2 top level starting pitchers and then goes from there.
 

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The Sox Prospects podcast was excellent. I like their point that if you look at the top 10 prospects in the Sox organization 5 of them are first-round picks, the team has sucked so they have had access to players they couldn't touch if they were good. Where is the fifth-round pitcher who was a find? Bloom also sat on Dalbach till he had no value. Not all these guys are going to succeed or have places in the org, some need to be traded to supplement the major league team.
 

chrisfont9

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Agreed. The 22 RF debacle and the SP the last two years really look like a guy caught flat footed when his original plan didn't work.
Just throwing out there that both years they had a ridiculous number of injuries to the point where you are penciling in Franchy Cordero to 53 games at 1b and starting Conor Seabold, Austin Davis, and a carousel of mediocre openers. These weren't plans. These were contingencies after your original contingencies also ended in injury. Both seasons saw the Sox with four SPs out at the same time. Who is anyone's ninth starter?
 

jon abbey

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I think this is just the way things are in the post-Covid world, NY started the season with their 8th and 9th SP options in the rotation this season and currently have a full pitching staff (5 starters and 8 relievers) on the IL (details if you want them on the most recent post in the NY roster 2023 thread), and TB has had more pitching injuries this season than either NY or BOS.
 

chrisfont9

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I think this is just the way things are in the post-Covid world, NY started the season with their 8th and 9th SP options in the rotation this season and currently have a full pitching staff (5 starters and 8 relievers) on the IL (details if you want them on the most recent post in the NY roster 2023 thread), and TB has had more pitching injuries this season than either NY or BOS.
Yep, but still, those Tampa injuries transformed them from a team that was playing .700 ball (51-22) to a team that has gone 5 games over .500 since. They were better equipped to survive the injuries because healthy Tampa was a heavy AL favorite.
 

Rovin Romine

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The big issue to me with this type of analysis is that it only really covers the "nature" part of the equation and ignores the "nurture".
This is a fair (and I think true) point. But a comprehensive analysis of the MiL system wasn't what I was getting at.

The point is the talent gap.

The Cherrington years 2012-2015 saw a number of Epstein graduates break into MLB - Boegarts, JBJ, Iglesias, Workman, Middlebrooks, Mookie, Vazquez, Barnes, Swihart, Travis Shaw. Many of those guys would feature in the 2018 club.

In the DD years, 2015-2019 you can add Benintendi, Devers, and E-Rod as Cherrington contributors. But not really much more than that. In 2015, these guys were all on the ML club at age 25 and younger: JBJ, Barnes, Vazquez, Swihart, Bogaerts, Betts, E-Rod. (And with the exception of the last they're all Epstein guys.)

DD traded Moncada and Kopesh (selling high on both) for Sale. Same with Espinosa for Pomeranz. And Margot (Esptein) for Kimbrel. (I think those are the kinds of moves that weren't seen from Cherrington or Bloom (Schwarber excepted.))

All well and good and 2018 was glorious. But check out how the MiL talent rolls in.

2016: Benintendi.
2017: Devers.
2018: Nobody (call ups include the likes of Sam Travis and Tzu-Wei-Lin)
2019: Nobody (Chavis and Travis)

2020: Houck, Verdugo, Dalbec, (and Chavis still). At this point the FA clock is starting to tick on the Epstein talents. DD is out, and Bloom is in. Bloom is starting to harvest the top of the DD classes, but it's thin and there's been a general dearth of talent in the system since 2016.

Did we have any decent Cherrington pitching at all come up from 2016 - 2019? (Owens and Johnson were Epstein guys.) I can only think of guys like Darwinzon, Bobby Poyner and Jalen Beeks. In fact, by October of 2018, the farm was looking pretty bare. These were the top prospects via soxprospects: Chavis, Casas, Groome, Dalbec, Hernandez, Houck, Mata, Flores, Chatham, Feltman. The good ones are DD picks.


So the point is this. Cherrington's MiL system didn't seem to stop the development of good players, but his drafting, even with high picks, sucked. DD flipped some fundamentally flawed players for talent needed to win in 2018-19, plus he restocked the system. And his MiL system developed good players.

But that talent gap was felt hardest between 2018-2020. Personally, I don't think that's on DD. Nobody's lamenting Moncada, Kopech, or Anderson as "the ones who got away" - or even as "well, talent costs talent, and we did win the WS." They were relative train-robberies. I think it's on Cherrington.

Bloom rode the talent-wave that was in DD's MiL system by not trading them: Casas, Dalbec, Duran, Houck, Murphy. So he wasn't quite starting from scratch, in that there were pieces there. But his drafts look very very promising.
 
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Auger34

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The Sox Prospects podcast was excellent. I like their point that if you look at the top 10 prospects in the Sox organization 5 of them are first-round picks, the team has sucked so they have had access to players they couldn't touch if they were good. Where is the fifth-round pitcher who was a find? Bloom also sat on Dalbach till he had no value. Not all these guys are going to succeed or have places in the org, some need to be traded to supplement the major league team.
To be fair to Bloom, he took Roman Anthony in the 2nd round and two of the 1st round prospects were clear Freidman/Bloom types who weren't necessarily the industry consensus (Nick Yorke and Mikey Romero)
 

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The Sox Prospects podcast was excellent. I like their point that if you look at the top 10 prospects in the Sox organization 5 of them are first-round picks, the team has sucked so they have had access to players they couldn't touch if they were good. Where is the fifth-round pitcher who was a find? Bloom also sat on Dalbach till he had no value. Not all these guys are going to succeed or have places in the org, some need to be traded to supplement the major league team.
FWIW, he also sat on Duran who now has value.
 

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The Sox Prospects podcast was excellent. I like their point that if you look at the top 10 prospects in the Sox organization 5 of them are first-round picks, the team has sucked so they have had access to players they couldn't touch if they were good. Where is the fifth-round pitcher who was a find? Bloom also sat on Dalbach till he had no value. Not all these guys are going to succeed or have places in the org, some need to be traded to supplement the major league team.
FWIW, I'd love to see a compare and contrast to other teams's top 10 in the first round arena. Plenty of work has been done to show that a ridiculous amount of major leaguers are first rounders. It might be news that five of their top ten aren't first rounders.
 

moondog80

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Bobby Dalbec was the starting 1B to open the season last year. Bloom didn't sit on him, he had a role in mind and gave it to him. It turned out he sucked, and if you want to give him demerits for not having someone better in place, have at it. But at that point Dalbec had 33 career HR in 545 PA (244/315/511), so I don't think it was the worst bet in the world for a team that had many holes to fill and couldn't spend big on all of them.
 

Fishercat

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I don't know why we're lumping Teel and Mayer together. Not regarding that we have no idea what'll happen (they can both absolutely bust), but there's a big difference in picking 4th and having one of those perceived Top 2-3 guys fall to you and picking 15th where it gets a lot more muddled.

To just dig into old wounds, the Sox had the 7th overall pick in 2014 - Ball was 8th in MLB's rankings. They could've taken Austin Meadows who was a consensus higher ranked guy and gotten more out of him.

Anyway

This is a fair (and I think true) point. But a comprehensive analysis of the MiL system wasn't what I was getting at.

The point is the talent gap.

The Cherrington years 2012-2015 saw a number of Epstein graduates break into MLB - Boegarts, JBJ, Iglesias, Workman, Middlebrooks, Mookie, Vazquez, Barnes, Swihart, Travis Shaw. Many of those guys would feature in the 2018 club.

In the DD years, 2015-2019 you can add Benintendi, Devers, and E-Rod as Cherrington contributors. But not really much more than that. In 2015, these guys were all on the ML club at age 25 and younger: JBJ, Barnes, Vazquez, Swihart, Bogaerts, Betts, E-Rod. (And with the exception of the last they're all Epstein guys.)

DD traded Moncada and Kopesh (selling high on both) for Sale. Same with Espinosa for Pomeranz. And Margot (Esptein) for Kimbrel. (I think those are the kinds of moves that weren't seen from Cherrington or Bloom (Schwarber excepted.))

All well and good and 2018 was glorious. But check out how the MiL talent rolls in.

2016: Benintendi.
2017: Devers.
2018: Nobody (call ups include the likes of Sam Travis and Tzu-Wei-Lin)
2019: Nobody (Chavis and Travis)

2020: Houck, Verdugo, Dalbec, (and Chavis still). At this point the FA clock is starting to tick on the Epstein talents. DD is out, and Bloom is in. Bloom is starting to harvest the top of the DD classes, but it's thin and there's been a general dearth of talent in the system since 2016.

Did we have any decent Cherrington pitching at all come up from 2016 - 2019? (Owens and Johnson were Epstein guys.) I can only think of guys like Darwinzon, Bobby Poyner and Jalen Beeks. In fact, by October of 2018, the farm was looking pretty bare. These were the top prospects via soxprospects: Chavis, Casas, Groome, Dalbec, Hernandez, Houck, Mata, Flores, Chatham, Feltman. The good ones are DD picks.


So the point is this. Cherrington's MiL system didn't seem to stop the development of good players, but his drafting, even with high picks, sucked. DD flipped some fundamentally flawed players for talent needed to win in 2018-19, plus he restocked the system. And his MiL system developed good players.

But that talent gap was felt hardest between 2018-2020. Personally, I don't think that's on DD. Nobody's lamenting Moncada, Kopech, or Anderson as "the ones who got away" - or even as "well, talent costs talent, and we did win the WS." They were relative train-robberies. I think it's on Cherrington.

Bloom rode the talent-wave that was in DD's MiL system by not trading them: Casas, Dalbec, Duran, Houck, Murphy. So he wasn't quite starting from scratch, in that there were pieces there. But his drafts look very very promising.

How much of the blame do you put on Ben Cherrington for drafting guys and couldn't make it and how much of the blame do you take that these Cherrington guys all spent formative years in a Dave Dombrowski led farm development system that by the accounts I've seen was bare bones and behind the times in terms of supporting these guys? Cherrington has had no problem building a farm system and developing real prospects in Pittsburgh, which suggests to me he's either gotten better/luckier/has better picks and/or maybe Dombrowski's abilities to wheel and deal were offset by an inability to have a viable prospect development pipeline with appropriate support for those players.

To me, that many of Dombrowski's "best" pickups are emerging now tells me not only that it takes ample time for those guys to emerge but also, possibly, that Bloom had a stronger development process in the system than DD did and that matters - and that DD's pipeline management possibly wasted talent that could've been developed from BC's group by not having the support there to amplify it. Likewise, whoever Dombrowski's international scout in his org was who found Bello deserves credit...but DD was long gone when Bello turned from a 9 K/9 guy in A to a 12 K/9 guy in High-A, or Rafaela took the leap in High A last year. Credit and blame is a spectrum.

This is my point really, a prospect's fate is their own but the "teachers" and "schools" along the way bear burden or share glory for how these occur. We understand this in other sports - for decades we've heard about how Bill Belichick can take defensive players who were abject failures in one place or weren't well regarded and coach them and place them in the right situations to make them good. Baseball is no different it's just a whole lot more opaque - and we know that even one minor "change" - a stance shift, a new pitch, a new fitness regiment can change how a player develops and produces. Blaming a talent gap purely on the person who drafted them and not the person (or person's people) who fostered it seems very short sighted.
 

RedOctober3829

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Jul 19, 2005
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Another point in this firing is this. After seeing the track record of ownership firing somebody every 4-5 years, how is that going to affect the candidate pool? Is an established baseball executive going to want to come here knowing he may get fired in that amount of time? Does that limit the pool to candidates who are taking their first GM position? It will be really interesting to see what shakes out.
 

Fishercat

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FWIW, I'd love to see a compare and contrast to other teams's top 10 in the first round arena. Plenty of work has been done to show that a ridiculous amount of major leaguers are first rounders. It might be news that five of their top ten aren't first rounders.
First, I don't know where Sox Prospect is getting 5 Sox guys as first rounders from @ShaneTrot's post. Mayer, Teel, and Yorke are the only three on their own list. Romero is a 4th on other lists but is 18th on their ranking - so I think SoxProspects doesn't know their own list. I guess if you include all four of those and Casas but Casas is graduated and you'd never have Teel in that case.

I harped on Baltimore so I won't do it here, but a few other select teams who are generally considered great developers -1st round and compensatory 1st round picks

Atlanta - 2 of 10
Chicago (N) - 3 of 10 (a fourth was a first rounder they traded for by giving up Javy Baez)
Cincy - 3 of 10 (a fourth was a first rounder acquired in trade)
Cleveland - 3 of 10
Milwaukee - 3 of 10 (they're really good in the international market)
Tampa Bay - 4 of 10 (most of the others are trades which is really impressive or later round picks)

The Sox having 3 or 4 guys is in line with a lot of other orgs. The number of IFAs as high as they are is probably the standout

On Dalbec like...some guys are just AAAA guys He had a great short stint in 2020 and looked promising in 2021, and then he stopped getting XBH. I feel like Bloom would look great now if he traded Dalbec going into 2022 and got real vlaue but there's no one on that roster who would be better than even crappy Dalbec was (Franchy tried...) and if he was actually an .800 OPS corner IF that the Sox traded, we'd never hear the end of it.
 

BigSoxFan

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Another point in this firing is this. After seeing the track record of ownership firing somebody every 4-5 years, how is that going to affect the candidate pool? Is an established baseball executive going to want to come here knowing he may get fired in that amount of time? Does that limit the pool to candidates who are taking their first GM position? It will be really interesting to see what shakes out.
Do we have any idea about how the Red Sox pay vs. other organizations? I could see someone good making the jump, if the financial incentives are worth it. And it's not necessarily a death knell to get fired by these guys given what we saw with DD. I bet Chaim resurfaces pretty quickly. May take a few years to get another GM job but I'd be surprised if he never gets another one (assuming that is what he wants).
 

BringBackMo

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Confused. In a vacuum it's a solid trade for the Red Sox but it was done without the other subsequently logical trades of dealing JD, Eovaldi, Wacha, Bogaerts or anyone else of value that could have got them below the luxury tax.

Bloom's unwillingness to pull the trigger on things that would have made the organization better was ultimately his downfall.
My comment was in direct response to the assertion that Bloom was not talented when it came to identifying prospects to bring into the organization. It had nothing to do with how his decisions fit within a broader roster construction strategy. If you want to have *that* conversation, then a good place to start would be recognizing that being both a seller and a buyer in the same deadline--trading away some players and not others--is likely the result of being asked to both rebuild an organization and compete for championships at the same time. Confusing demands can result in confusing moves.
 
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BringBackMo

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Some of Bloom's decisions about free agents puzzled me. Eovaldi and Wacha performed well for the Sox. I was very disappointed that it did not appear the Red Sox saw value in re-signing them.
My goodness. No matter how many times it is debunked on this board, the "Bloom didn't try to re-sign Eovaldi" narrative will not die. Eovaldi received a good offer from the Sox. How good? When he couldn't beat it anywhere else, he came back asking for it to be offered to him again. By then the Sox had used the money elsewhere. Eovaldi is not on the Red Sox because of *his* miscalculation, not Bloom's.
 
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