The Red Sox have fired Chaim Bloom

[jon abbey]

Interesting Were these guys overslot or underslot?

Mostly overslot, but still not huge expenditures.

Will Warren (2021 8th round pick, slightly under slot)
Richard Fitts (2021 6th round pick, overslot so paid like a 5th round pick)
Brock Selvidge (2021 3rd round pick, overslot a bunch, paid like a 2nd round pick)
Drew Thorpe (2022 2nd round pick, at slot)
Chase Hampton (2022 6th round pick, overslot so paid like a 4th round pick)

So 2/3/6/6/8, paid like 2/2/4/5/8.

 

[lexrageorge]

You know, as grossed out as I am about the team smearing people on their way out, these stories are in fact pretty damning about Bloom’s limitations.

If — and it’s a big if — the Sale and Turner trade stories are substantially accurate, he had opportunities at the last two deadlines to *really* set us up, and didn’t take them, in order to preserve what he must have known were pretty long shots at the playoffs. I’ve generally been a Bloom defender, because I’ve liked most of his moves. It’s some of these non-moves that aren’t great.

The young talent in the organization is way better than it was when he took over, but imagine how much better it could be if he’d made a few more Vazquez trades.

(Of course, the press would have murdered him, but his job is to not give a shit about that.)

I don't like it when teams smear players, and that is by no means limited to the Red Sox.

However, and I say this as someone who normally supported Bloom, the GM/PBOS position in Boston is one that is a high profile job for a big market team with a rabid fan base. The decisions Bloom made or not made are his responsibility. And I don't see any issue with the press finding out about deals that fell through, etc., as it is a HUGE part of the GM's job.

Was Bloom difficult to deal with? Dunno. Those are stories that are best taken with a grain of salt. Hell, Theo caught flak when the Sox backed out of the Larry Bigbie-for-Shoppach deal at the last minute, and earlier for signing Kevin Millar, and he didn't have any issue getting another job after Boston. Posters in the Port Cellar still think Ainge had a bad reputation around the NBA even after multiple stories came out from anonymous GM's that they really appreciated the chance to deal with Ainge because his negotiating team was always so well prepared.

But, if Bloom was slow to close on a deal after multiple discussions, I can see that becoming frustrating to rival GMs. The hours before the trade deadline are precious, and if Texas spent a ton of time preparing an offer for Sale that they thought would fly based on the conversations they had with Bloom, and Chaim indeed came back and kept asking for something different, yes, that will get very frustrating. Opportunity costs are real. Maybe that just happened once or twice, so no big deal. But if it was a pattern, it's eventually going to be a real problem. And I have no problem with the details of that problem becoming public if that was the case.

Also, we do need to differentiate the "team" from "random person working in the front office that has knowledge they want to share with the press for whatever reason". Most of these sources are likely the latter, and that situation is by no means unique to Boston.

 

[simplicio]

I think part of it is that we haven't acquired any top tier pitching talent either. Since 1998, we are more or less used to the Sox having an ace. We had Pedro, we had Schilling, there was a bit of a gap in 2005-2006 as Schilling was hurt and guys like Clement didn't work out (and Beckett sucked in 2006), then we had Beckett, Lester, similar lull in 2014-2015 as Lester / Buchholz declined / were hurt and Lackey didn't really work out, and then of course DD traded for a few seasons worth of ace level Sale and also signed Price (which worked out a little better than we probably thought at the time - he provided decent value for a few years). So now while we do have Bello, he was a DD pick, and Bloom didn't do much to augment that from an acquisition standpoint (he obviously has done ok getting a few young cost-controlled mid-back end rotation guys on the cheap). I think one of the reasons Cherington was fired was how the SP turned out under his watch, and I think it's fair to say the same applies to Bloom to a degree.

I mean, sure it would be great to have an ace, but why on earth would you acquire one in the middle of a rebuild?

 

[tims4wins]

I mean, sure it would be great to have an ace, but why on earth would you acquire one in the middle of a rebuild?

The 2015 Red Sox went 78-84 and acquired Sale.

Edit and if the 2023 Sox had 2016 Sale, they’d likely be a playoff team, no?

Ditto 2022?

Like, why WOULDN’T you want an ace???

 

[Fishercat]

I just want to put a couple things out there on pitching prospects, not in a defense of Bloom but for context.

The first one is success rates. These numbers have been out there forever, but pitchers are riskier than position players and less likely to provide positive outcomes. This is not an argument not to draft them imo but even in the Top 10, a HS position player is more likely to bear fruit than a college pitcher, and HS pitchers are even worse bets - arguably terrible bets

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theathletic.com/1752900/2020/04/20/book-excerpt-why-its-still-a-bad-idea-to-draft-high-school-pitchers-in-the-first-round/?amp=1

The second is on development time for all prospects. It's a long runway. I went back to the 2018 draft (5ish pro years) and looked at R1 and R2 pitchers. There were 30 who were drafted and signed. Of those

7 have contributed 1 bWAR or more (highest is McClanahan)
8 have negative bWAR
17 have played in the MLB

2/3 of pitchers have been zero or below replacement value guys. You do find value in those later rounds here and there of course.

This leads to prospect rankings being very bearish on pitchers - when looking at past years of Top x guys, the pitcher rankings are littered with busts or almost was guys, they are more risky. Now, IMO... You need to buy lottery tickets but I think Bloom likely aims for less risk so you see a lot of middle of the field position guys.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Mostly overslot, but still not huge expenditures.

Will Warren (2021 8th round pick, slightly under slot)
Richard Fitts (2021 6th round pick, overslot so paid like a 5th round pick)
Brock Selvidge (2021 3rd round pick, overslot a bunch, paid like a 2nd round pick)
Drew Thorpe (2022 2nd round pick, at slot)
Chase Hampton (2022 6th round pick, overslot so paid like a 4th round pick)

So 2/3/6/6/8, paid like 2/2/4/5/8.

Thanks. Contrast this to Bloom's 2022 draft:

1st pitcher taken is Dalton Rogers in Round 3 - underslot by a round
2nd pitcher taken is Noah Dean in Round 5 - underslot by a few spots
Bloom then takes pitchers in Rounds 6, 7, 8, and 10 - 3 of them get $7500 bonuses and the last one gets $32,000.
After that, Bloom signs 7 more pitchers but all of them at slot or less.

Bloom thought he could get "college strike throwers" and develop them into something more.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I mean, sure it would be great to have an ace, but why on earth would you acquire one in the middle of a rebuild?

Much of this comes down to Sale's health. (Meaning, they had an ace they were paying $21M a year for.)

In 2021, Sale was due back in the second half, and we had a rotation of Eovaldi, E-Rod, Pivetta, Richards, Perez, and Houck. Sale did come back (3.16 ERA in 9 starts) and they made it to the ALCS. Richards and Perez were the short-term guys who were there to buffer the staff - extend to Sale's return, and give Houck a bit of a cushion. Plan well executed (even with the sticky-ban nerfing Richards.)

In 2022, Sale was expected to be in the rotation. Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Wacha, Hill, Paxton. Wacha and Hill were the buffer, and Paxton a second-half wild-card, with guys like Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, and possibly Bello looking to take a step up. But Sale was injured early, then broke his finger when he came back. Eovaldi was injured and missed 10 starts. Wacha was also injured and missed about 10 starts. Hill was a bit meh. Paxton never launched. So Winckowski, Crawford, and Bello were pressed into service - probably too soon, as the results were not spectacular. Injury derailment.

in 2023, it was Sale, Bello, Pivetta, Paxton, Kluber, Whitlock, Houck. Kluber was the buffer. But again Sale went down, and Pivetta ended up doing an early implosion. Kluber was awful. The first of this kind of short term signing that was truly awful. And rumor swirl that Bloom wanted Eovaldi/Wacha/Elfin but they chose to go elsewhere. Injury and ineffectiveness, which implicates player evaluation and coaching more so than the prior year.

And yet the narrative's going to be what? "Boom went dumpsta-diving."*


*Lest anyone get bent out of shape, I'm mocking the argument, not the moral character of any person who may have entertained or repeated that argument. Whomever you are, sir or madam, I do not confuse your essential personhood with a transient opinion you expressed about the strategy of a GM of a sports team. An opinion which you, like every other person on the planet, remain free to change, without any form of mental weakness being attributed to your exercise of an entirely normal process of considering information and so revisiting your impression of matters. And I would personally hope, for your own psychological health, that you do not inflexibly locate your identity in this kind of opinion. But I say this last not to impugn your fandom - long may it shine.

 

[JM3]

I think part of it is that we haven't acquired any top tier pitching talent either. Since 1998, we are more or less used to the Sox having an ace. We had Pedro, we had Schilling, there was a bit of a gap in 2005-2006 as Schilling was hurt and guys like Clement didn't work out (and Beckett sucked in 2006), then we had Beckett, Lester, similar lull in 2014-2015 as Lester / Buchholz declined / were hurt and Lackey didn't really work out, and then of course DD traded for a few seasons worth of ace level Sale and also signed Price (which worked out a little better than we probably thought at the time - he provided decent value for a few years). So now while we do have Bello, he was a DD pick, and Bloom didn't do much to augment that from an acquisition standpoint (he obviously has done ok getting a few young cost-controlled mid-back end rotation guys on the cheap). I think one of the reasons Cherington was fired was how the SP turned out under his watch, and I think it's fair to say the same applies to Bloom to a degree.

I think that's a fine complaint - but I think it's totally different than the one I was responding to.

'24 when the infrastructure was in place & they were (hopefully) ready to go well over the tax to the 1st apron always seemed like the time to go out & acquire ace-level pitching, though.

The 1st year or 2 of those contracts are usually the best & you want to make sure they coincide with your window. Otherwise what are you really accomplishing other than window dressing?

It's a valid concern, based on an these reports, that Bloom might not be the guy best situated to bring in that next ace, but it's really a separate issue from his drafting.

 

[8slim]

Much of this comes down to Sale's health. (Meaning, they had an ace they were paying $21M a year for.)

In 2021, Sale was due back in the second half, and we had a rotation of Eovaldi, E-Rod, Pivetta, Richards, Perez, and Houck. Sale did come back (3.16 ERA in 9 starts) and they made it to the ALCS. Richards and Perez were the short-term guys who were there to buffer the staff - extend to Sale's return, and give Houck a bit of a cushion. Plan well executed (even with the sticky-ban nerfing Richards.)

In 2022, Sale was expected to be in the rotation. Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Wacha, Hill, Paxton. Wacha and Hill were the buffer, and Paxton a second-half wild-card, with guys like Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, and possibly Bello looking to take a step up. But Sale was injured early, then broke his finger when he came back. Eovaldi was injured and missed 10 starts. Wacha was also injured and missed about 10 starts. Hill was a bit meh. Paxton never launched. So Winckowski, Crawford, and Bello were pressed into service - probably too soon, as the results were not spectacular. Injury derailment.

in 2023, it was Sale, Bello, Pivetta, Paxton, Kluber, Whitlock, Houck. Kluber was the buffer. But again Sale went down, and Pivetta ended up doing an early implosion. Kluber was awful. The first of this kind of short term signing that was truly awful. And rumor swirl that Bloom wanted Eovaldi/Wacha/Elfin but they chose to go elsewhere. Injury and ineffectiveness, which implicates player evaluation and coaching more so than the prior year.

And yet the narrative's going to be what? "Boom went dumpsta-diving."*


*Lest anyone get bent out of shape, I'm mocking the argument, not the moral character of any person who may have entertained or repeated that argument. Whomever you are, sir or madam, I do not confuse your essential personhood with a transient opinion you expressed about the strategy of a GM of a sports team. An opinion which you, like every other person on the planet, remain free to change, without any form of mental weakness being attributed to your exercise of an entirely normal process of considering information and so revisiting your impression of matters. And I would personally hope, for your own psychological health, that you do not inflexibly locate your identity in this kind of opinion. But I say this last not to impugn your fandom - long may it shine.

The narrative is that relying on Chris Sale at any point after 2019 was a foolish choice.

 

[JM3]

This thread is moving fast, but my point was mostly that all of those guys have been added since the 2021 draft, so it doesn't always take so long to develop pitching. None have gotten a shot in MLB yet but that is in part because 4 of those 5 don't need to be added to the 40 man this winter, all spent the season building up innings and all are ready to compete for a SP spot in the spring. It’s definitely not easy but it’s possible.

Also I forgot Brock Selvidge, 3rd round pick in 2021 out of high school and just turned 21, he should be in AA early next season after a very strong showing in high A.

I was joking about that criticism...I even put an "lol" in the part you trimmed. I do think you're being overly optimistic about some of those guys, but that's ok. It's good to be optimistic about your system.

 

[Fishercat]

Thanks. Contrast this to Bloom's 2022 draft:

1st pitcher taken is Dalton Rogers in Round 3 - underslot by a round
2nd pitcher taken is Noah Dean in Round 5 - underslot by a few spots
Bloom then takes pitchers in Rounds 6, 7, 8, and 10 - 3 of them get $7500 bonuses and the last one gets $32,000.
After that, Bloom signs 7 more pitchers but all of them at slot or less.

Bloom thought he could get "college strike throwers" and develop them into something more.

As a bit of a defense here, the Sox went under slot primarily to sign Roman Anthony and Cashman would likely trade a number of those guys for Anthony in a cocaine heartbeat. And Brooks Brannon…which is definitely more up for debate

 

[RS2004foreever]

Much of this comes down to Sale's health. (Meaning, they had an ace they were paying $21M a year for.)

I

This. I hope Sale apologizes to Bloom.

 

[JM3]

As a bit of a defense here, the Sox went under slot primarily to sign Roman Anthony and Cashman would likely trade a number of those guys for Anthony in a cocaine heartbeat. And Brooks Brannon…which is definitely more up for debate

Brooks Brannon? The 19 y/o catcher with a 167 wRC+ in A-ball this season?

(It was in 25 PAs & then he got hurt, but he's at least interesting. Hopefully he'll have a healthy season to evaluate next year.)

 

[simplicio]

The 2015 Red Sox went 78-84 and acquired Sale.

Edit and if the 2023 Sox had 2016 Sale, they’d likely be a playoff team, no?

Ditto 2022?

Like, why WOULDN’T you want an ace???

You mean Price? Sale was 2017. But to answer your question, the 2015 Sox had a core of Papi, Pedey, Betts, X, and Hanley, and the Shaw and JBJ auditions had been hugely successful. That's pretty stacked! Things were looking bright for the next year.

On the pitching side you had Buchholz (entering his last year) and Erod as exciting arms and Porcello as a reliable innings eater.

That looks to me like exactly the type of team you'd add a big starter to.

 

[Fishercat]

Brooks Brannon? The 19 y/o catcher with a 167 wRC+ in A-ball this season?

(It was in 25 PAs & then he got hurt, but he's at least interesting. Hopefully he'll have a healthy season to evaluate next year.)

That’s the one! Injuries are what get a lot of these guys at the end but the skill is thee to be interesting

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

You mean Price? Sale was 2017. But to answer your question, the 2015 Sox had a core of Papi, Pedey, Betts, X, and Hanley, and the Shaw and JBJ auditions had been hugely successful. That's pretty stacked! Things were looking bright for the next year.

On the pitching side you had Buchholz (entering his last year) and Erod as exciting arms and Porcello as a reliable innings eater.

That looks to me like exactly the type of team you'd add a big starter to.

If we want to draw parallels between 2015 and this season, they were similar seasons. 2015 was the end of the rebuild as the farm was starting to bear fruit and form a solid core. This year's team looks similar in a lot of respects. Arguably this winter is when they open up the purse (cash or prospects) to get the 2024 version of Price, not last winter.

 

[mikcou]

Much of this comes down to Sale's health. (Meaning, they had an ace they were paying $21M a year for.)

In 2021, Sale was due back in the second half, and we had a rotation of Eovaldi, E-Rod, Pivetta, Richards, Perez, and Houck. Sale did come back (3.16 ERA in 9 starts) and they made it to the ALCS. Richards and Perez were the short-term guys who were there to buffer the staff - extend to Sale's return, and give Houck a bit of a cushion. Plan well executed (even with the sticky-ban nerfing Richards.)

In 2022, Sale was expected to be in the rotation. Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Wacha, Hill, Paxton. Wacha and Hill were the buffer, and Paxton a second-half wild-card, with guys like Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, and possibly Bello looking to take a step up. But Sale was injured early, then broke his finger when he came back. Eovaldi was injured and missed 10 starts. Wacha was also injured and missed about 10 starts. Hill was a bit meh. Paxton never launched. So Winckowski, Crawford, and Bello were pressed into service - probably too soon, as the results were not spectacular. Injury derailment.

in 2023, it was Sale, Bello, Pivetta, Paxton, Kluber, Whitlock, Houck. Kluber was the buffer. But again Sale went down, and Pivetta ended up doing an early implosion. Kluber was awful. The first of this kind of short term signing that was truly awful. And rumor swirl that Bloom wanted Eovaldi/Wacha/Elfin but they chose to go elsewhere. Injury and ineffectiveness, which implicates player evaluation and coaching more so than the prior year.

And yet the narrative's going to be what? "Boom went dumpsta-diving."*


*Lest anyone get bent out of shape, I'm mocking the argument, not the moral character of any person who may have entertained or repeated that argument. Whomever you are, sir or madam, I do not confuse your essential personhood with a transient opinion you expressed about the strategy of a GM of a sports team. An opinion which you, like every other person on the planet, remain free to change, without any form of mental weakness being attributed to your exercise of an entirely normal process of considering information and so revisiting your impression of matters. And I would personally hope, for your own psychological health, that you do not inflexibly locate your identity in this kind of opinion. But I say this last not to impugn your fandom - long may it shine.

The 2023 rotation, even if healthy, was going to be bad. The 2021 rotation with both Eovaldi and E-Rod was a legitimate contenders rotation. 2022, Bloom got about as much out of the one year guys as anyone could expect and the rotation was still a massive problem because both Sale and Eovaldi got hurt for significant portions of the season. That is understandable. The decisions for 2023 both at the time Bloom made their moves and in retrospect never made sense.

Kluber was bad in 2022, was turning 37, and was sitting 88 in late 2022. It was a truly bizarre decision to count on him for anything. There was a whole additional season showing Sale is not a guy who is going to throw 150+ innings. Even with that, his idea was to go with Sale/Paxton/Bello/Kluber/Pivetta/Houck/Whitlock. Two guys (Sale/Paxton) who really hadn’t pitched much in threes straight seasons and couldn’t reasonably be expected to throw more than 120 innings (and in fact had the very expected occur). One guy (Kluber) whose upside was being a bad innings eater and another guy (Pivetta) who might be a league average innings eater. Then Houck/Whitlock whose limitations were both well known going into the season - Houck can’t go three times through; Whitlock has never stayed healthy and needs to be managed.

The outcome was the expected outcome, the primary reason Vegas had the total at 77-78 wins (which it looks like they will be close to on the mark), and likely a significant reason he no longer is in charge.

Perhaps the only outcome that might have been worse than expected was Pivetta blowing up at the beginning of the season, but he’s basically now back to exactly what he’s always been - a streaky guy who ends up about league average. I’ve been a big Bello fan since 2019 and I’ve still been pleasantly surprised about how quickly he became a well above average MLB starter.

 

[burstnbloom]

Why are you SMYH?

I mean if you have deep baseball knowledge, share it Branch Rickey. C’mon.

You’re the one that’s having an existential crisis with Bloom getting canned. Explain to me what I’m missing.

Mostly you're missing where pitching comes from. The table below shows the top 25 pitchers by fWAR in MLB this year. There are a total of 3 first round pitchers on this list still with their original team.





Additionally, of MLB Pipeline's top 100 propects, 26 are pitchers. 2 of them are international signings who were signed before Chaim was hired. Of the remaining 24, 10 were picked in the 1st round. Of those 10, 4 have made it to AA or higher, 1 is in mlb. 1 of them is this year's number 1 overall pick Paul Skenes and 1 of them is Andrew Painter, who just had tommy john surgery. That's 4 players out of 41 first round pitchers in the drafts Bloom presided over. The number of pitchers that teams have picked in the first round has also declined 4 straight years 16, 15, 10, 8.

I'm not making any commentary on anything else in this argument but the criticism of Chaim not investing in drafting pitching is more a criticism of how pitching is being treated by the sport as a whole, and given the payoff on high pick pitchers in the current snapshot of the league, it appears to be for good reason.

 

[sezwho]

Snip….

I'm not making any commentary on anything else in this argument but the criticism of Chaim not investing in drafting pitching is more a criticism of how pitching is being treated by the sport as a whole, and given the payoff on high pick pitchers in the current snapshot of the league, it appears to be for good reason.

But he needs to be both smarter than the league and recognize the specific situation his roster was in. Being a prisoner of analysis means that it’s essentially always a better investment (meaning lower volatility and higher expected ROI) to draft or sign a position player.

The problem is, when you need to have pitching developed then you don’t get to think of it in terms of whether it’s better or worse than hitting investment options, you have to think of it is better or worse than the other pitching acquisition options. I just think he didn’t bet there enough.

 

[JM3]

But he needs to be both smarter than the league and recognize the specific situation his roster was in. Being a prisoner of analysis means that it’s essentially always a better investment (meaning lower volatility and higher expected ROI) to draft or sign a position player.

The problem is, when you need to have pitching developed then you don’t get to think of it in terms of whether it’s better or worse than hitting investment options, you have to think of it is better or worse than the other pitching acquisition options. I just think he didn’t bet there enough.

Drafting for pitching need is an Angels-level strategy. Literally. In '22 they drafted 20 pitchers, including 19 college pitchers.

You don't be smarter than everyone else by doing suboptimal strategies. You be smarter than everyone else by doing proven optimal strategies better.

 

[simplicio]

But he needs to be both smarter than the league and recognize the specific situation his roster was in. Being a prisoner of analysis means that it’s essentially always a better investment (meaning lower volatility and higher expected ROI) to draft or sign a position player.

The problem is, when you need to have pitching developed then you don’t get to think of it in terms of whether it’s better or worse than hitting investment options, you have to think of it is better or worse than the other pitching acquisition options. I just think he didn’t bet there enough.

The bolded feels like it's operating on the assumption that you have to have strong pitching in the minors that you drafted yourself. I'm not clear on why that would be the case.

 

[JM3]

Drafting for pitching need is an Angels-level strategy. Literally. In '22 they drafted 20 pitchers, including 19 college pitchers.

You don't be smarter than everyone else by doing suboptimal strategies. You be smarter than everyone else by doing proven optimal strategies better.

This isn't me saying Bloom did do these strategies better, & we won't know for a few years. This is also not me saying that we should have kept Bloom around for 3 more years to find out.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Mostly you're missing where pitching comes from. The table below shows the top 25 pitchers by fWAR in MLB this year. There are a total of 3 first round pitchers on this list still with their original team.

I really appreciate the context, thank you for teh information. I knew that drafting pitchers high had fallen out of vogue but I wasn’t aware of how far it had.

My question really centered around: where was/is the pitching supposed to come from? Over four years Bloom didn’t show a propensity to trade for a top-notch front line starter, he didn’t want to sign one in free agency and he didnt appear to draft them.

I’m not sure what other avenue was left here. The yearly dumpster dining might gain you a Wacha but it also might yield a Kluber.

I’d expect anyone would want more of a sure thing when it comes to that part of your organization.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Bloom thought he could get "college strike throwers" and develop them into something more.

Following the Guardians' method of getting pitching seems like a good idea. If you really can develop them in addition to drafting them, as the Guards clearly can.

 

[simplicio]

But again, why would you want to waste resources on a frontline starter while in a rebuild? This winter is the first time since 2018 it will make sense to do that.

 

[burstnbloom]

I really appreciate the context, thank you for teh information. I knew that drafting pitchers high had fallen out of vogue but I wasn’t aware of how far it had.

My question really centered around: where was/is the pitching supposed to come from? Over four years Bloom didn’t show a propensity to trade for a top-notch front line starter, he didn’t want to sign one in free agency and he didnt appear to draft them.

I’m not sure what other avenue was left here. The yearly dumpster dining might gain you a Wacha but it also might yield a Kluber.

I’d expect anyone would want more of a sure thing when it comes to that part of your organization.

I think it comes from free agency and trades. They haven't really been in a position to take a big swing until this fall. I think there are plenty of things to look back on and say "wtf" with regards to blooms tenure here, but I don't think pitching acquisition is one of them. Acquiring young pitching is a fools bet in the modern game. most of those pitchers on the list are 26 yo or older and are proven commodities. There is so much volatility in younger pitchers that throwing it all in for one of them seems foolish until they are at that Kirby/Cease/Peralta level of success. The step the farm system took this year allows them to make one of those moves and 2 of the pitchers on that list are available for just money in November and that doesn't include Yamamoto.

If you look at the context of the pitching market and what's happened with this team, you can hate that they didn't approach Gausman, but I'm not sure how criticial I'd be otherwise. They didn't have a Marte to trade for Castillo, Mayer is that now.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

But again, why would you want to waste resources on a frontline starter while in a rebuild? This winter is the first time since 2018 it will make sense to do that.

Didn’t most here seem to expect that the Sox, as constructed, would contend the last two years (and many claim they would have were it not for clustering of injuries and stuff). If that’s true- wouldn’t a frontline starter have made them even better?

A year ago, there was tons of chatter about how much cash the Sox had and how they were going to go crazy in the off-season. Now that’s this year?

 

[Apisith]

I just hope that whoever our new GM realizes that his first priority is extensions for Casas and Bello. Everything else is secondary IMO. I also hope we don't spend to the cap because if Mayer and Anthony are up by the end of next year, we need the payroll room to give them extensions as well.

 

[JM3]

Didn’t most here seem to expect that the Sox, as constructed, would contend the last two years (and many claim they would have were it not for clustering of injuries and stuff). If that’s true- wouldn’t a frontline starter have made them even better?

A year ago, there was tons of chatter about how much cash the Sox had and how they were going to go crazy in the off-season. Now that’s this year?

I can't speak for others, but to me the window was always opening in '24. They could have put a more competitive team on the field the last 2 years, & been less subject to injury fluctuations, but not without materially impacting their ceiling in the period from '24 onward.

Could Bloom have made better decisions along those margins? Of course. Could be have pissed less people off & garnered a better reputation throughout the league? Sounds like it. Could he have not let the perfect stand in the way of the good enough in several instances? Almost certainly.

But I think the strategy is sound, & if Bloom had been better at the stuff in the previous paragraph while navigating to this point, I think he would still have a job.

As it is, it's a really good opportunity to bring in a new smart person from a smart organization, who has more flexibility than Bloom seemed to & without Bloom's PR baggage, to oversee the pivot into the contention window.

 

[thestardawg]

I just want to point out that Cashman has entirely rebuilt NY's AA/AAA rotation exceedingly quickly, as follows:

Clayton Beeter (2020 2nd round pick by LAD, traded to NY at 2022 deadline for two months of Joey Gallo, in AAA now, career high 13 Ks in his last start)
Will Warren (2021 8th round pick, dominating AAA down the stretch currently)
Richard Fitts (2021 6th round pick, a 1st round talent who slipped because of a non-arm injury, led the Eastern League in Ks with 163 including a career high 11 in his last start)
Drew Thorpe (2022 2nd round pick, up to AA at the end of this season with a good chance to be the overall MiLB pitcher of the year, 14-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 182 Ks (most in MiLB) in 139.1 IP, just 38 BBs)
Chase Hampton (2022 6th round pick, already impressing at AA and on multiple top 100 prospect lists in his first professional season)

That's not a huge amount of draft capital, a 2nd round pick, 2 6th rounders and an 8th rounder, plus a deadline trade. All five of those guys could challenge for NY's rotation next year.

So Bloom not having enough time to do something similar is not really valid, he chose to have different priorities for whatever reason.

And the mets in 1995 had Generation K which was going to lead the Mets to domination of the NL East.

Pitching is much harder to develop than hitting. I agree the Yankees have some promising oitching but the chances of most of them coming up injured or ineffective is high.

 

[moondog80]

I think it comes from free agency and trades. They haven't really been in a position to take a big swing until this fall. I think there are plenty of things to look back on and say "wtf" with regards to blooms tenure here, but I don't think pitching acquisition is one of them. Acquiring young pitching is a fools bet in the modern game. most of those pitchers on the list are 26 yo or older and are proven commodities. There is so much volatility in younger pitchers that throwing it all in for one of them seems foolish until they are at that Kirby/Cease/Peralta level of success. The step the farm system took this year allows them to make one of those moves and 2 of the pitchers on that list are available for just money in November and that doesn't include Yamamoto.

Yep. They tried to get some pitching last year (Eflin, Haney, Eovaldi) but it didn't work out for various reasons. This offseason, I'd have bet my house that Bloom would have gotten at least two starters on multi-year deals. I expect much the same from his replacement.

And of course, eventually, it will come form the farm system.

I don't know if it would have worked out. But it's not like he just forgot about pitching, or didn't care about it. There was definitely a plan.

 

[JimD]

I haven't had a lot of time lately to post much besides a quick comments. I have no issue in admitting that I was a Bloom supporter because I very much supported the goal of becoming 'Dodgers east' and hoped that he was the guy to lead us to that promised land. I believe that he did a lot of good work to help make this a possibility down the road but I will freely admit now that his flaws in building the major league roster doomed him, judging by the reports of the his unwillingness to send Sale to Texas, and I'm Ok with the team deciding that enough was enough. I think that, all along, you could always squint and see what Chaim was trying to do even when making questionable moves like signing Corey Kluber, but the reality is that he needed to nail the majority of those types of moves and too often they failed miserably. Same with his last two trade deadline performances - if you're going to stake your job on the trope of 'Getting these injured players back for the stretch run are the best acquisitions we can make', then the team had better stay in contention deep into September. It's baffling to me that after last year's August-September faceplant that Bloom was willing to risk everything all over again this year and sit on his hands.

I do believe that both ownership and Bloom misjudged the depth of enmity that he earned from a large portion of the fanbase who simply would never forgive him for trading Betts, and how that would color fan perception of not only Chaim but the team going forward. Shitcanning Bloom is not going to magically reverse the team's sagging ratings - the entire Red Sox organization has to hit and hit big on the remaining stages of the retooling to restore the Red Sox to their longtime place as a team worth following on an everyday basis throughout the summer and fall and into the offseason.

I think one person who comes off poorly in this is Alex Cora. He strikes me as an opportunist who saw how negatively Bloom was perceived by the fanbase (and perhaps by ownership) and has conveniently used this opportunity to help make sure that Chaim was blamed for all of this team's poor performance and distract people from focusing on Cora's own role in two straight disappointing finishes. The next GM or PoBO is going to have to either keep him on as manager, or is going to have to watch their back with Cora playing a front office role and probably angling for their job. I don't get why he is deserving of the Teflon treatment after watching such repeatedly poor play and multiple late-season collapses.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Didn’t most here seem to expect that the Sox, as constructed, would contend the last two years (and many claim they would have were it not for clustering of injuries and stuff). If that’s true- wouldn’t a frontline starter have made them even better?

A year ago, there was tons of chatter about how much cash the Sox had and how they were going to go crazy in the off-season. Now that’s this year?

Of course a frontline starter would have made them better. No one is ever going to disagree with that statement. The team was built to contend if certain things broke right which they obviously didn't. But it was also built to break in young talent and give those youngsters a chance to prove themselves (or not). If they sign a "frontline" starter, and he stays healthy, do we ever find out what Kutter Crawford can do as a full time starter? Or is it Whitlock who remains a question mark? Or Houck? There's an opportunity cost to bringing in a high-priced frontline starter to a rebuilding team that was borderline to contend in the first place.

2015 has been brought up as another season in which the front office didn't seek out a "frontline" starter. That was the year of the "he's the ace" tee shirts. The top 8 in games started was Wade Miley, Rick Porcello, Joe Kelly, ERod, Buchholz, Henry Owens, Steven Wright, and Justin Masterson. It was a proving ground to know that Owens was never going to be anything. That Kelly was going to be better in the bullpen. That Masterson was toast. That Buchholz was near the end of the line. That ERod had the potential to be special. All that data led the front office to sign Price and trust that Porcello could be a solid #2 (and he won the Cy Young). While the results of the season weren't a winner, it helped enable what came after. That has value.

There's a reasonable case to be made that the pitching market last winter wasn't compelling enough to splurge in a way that wouldn't give guys like Whitlock and Houck and Crawford a chance to prove themselves. Now that they have another full year under their belt, there's more data to know exactly what role they're best suited for and this winter can be used to fill in the gaps.

 

[YTF]

Much of this comes down to Sale's health. (Meaning, they had an ace they were paying $21M a year for.)

In 2021, Sale was due back in the second half, and we had a rotation of Eovaldi, E-Rod, Pivetta, Richards, Perez, and Houck. Sale did come back (3.16 ERA in 9 starts) and they made it to the ALCS. Richards and Perez were the short-term guys who were there to buffer the staff - extend to Sale's return, and give Houck a bit of a cushion. Plan well executed (even with the sticky-ban nerfing Richards.)

I was curious about this and took a look back at the '21 team a couple of hours ago. That rotation with a healthy Sale at the top would have been a real difference maker. I realize that "healthy" is one hell of a qualifier, but everyone else slotting down one spot would have made for a solid rotation. Eovaldi was a workhorse and Rodriguez (while infamously inconsistent) pitched really well in spurts and much more a #3 than a #2 type. Houck and his 3.52 ERA was a nice contributor, but it looks as though he was on a limit throwing just 69 innings 18 games (13 starts).

 

[moondog80]

I just hope that whoever our new GM realizes that his first priority is extensions for Casas and Bello. Everything else is secondary IMO. I also hope we don't spend to the cap because if Mayer and Anthony are up by the end of next year, we need the payroll room to give them extensions as well.

Nope. They are already under control for five more years. If you can reach a deal that makes sense for both sides, then by all means go for it. But sometimes players/agents simply want to his free agency ASAP, and if that's the case, doing something stupid to change their mind is a mistake. Those deals aren't free -- the 2024 Red Sox will be worse next year if they extend them because they will no longer count for 900K or whatever against the tax threshold. And that might be fine, but they have to make sure to get their value back on the other end.

In any event, the first priority for next year is starting pitching. A close second is starting pitching.

 

[sezwho]

Don’t mean to harp on your posts @simplicio as I do enjoy them

But again, why would you want to waste resources on a frontline starter while in a rebuild? This winter is the first time since 2018 it will make sense to do that.

Because you think that starter will be good for a while and you don’t expect your 200million payroll to be four years into that rebuild still needing a complete starting rotation overhaul (plus Bello) to compete.

The bolded feels like it's operating on the assumption that you have to have strong pitching in the minors that you drafted yourself. I'm not clear on why that would be the case.

No, it’s predicated on the fact that you have a desperate need for (edit- starting) pitching at all levels.

If you stay away from the top of the FA market because it sucks and stay away from drafting pitchers because that sucks then you just hope you stumble across some organically, which seems to be the (absence of) plan.

Where are they to come from?

 

[jon abbey]

And the mets in 1995 had Generation K which was going to lead the Mets to domination of the NL East.

Pitching is much harder to develop than hitting. I agree the Yankees have some promising oitching but the chances of most of them coming up injured or ineffective is high.

Really not my point at all, my point was just that it's possible to put pitching potentially in place in the window that Bloom had. I'd be thrilled if even 2 of those 6 end up in NY's rotation.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Don’t mean to harp on your posts @simplicio as I do enjoy them



Because you think that starter will be good for a while and you don’t expect your 200million payroll to be four years into that rebuild still needing a complete starting rotation overhaul (plus Bello) to compete.

The question is who is that guy from among the pitchers that changed teams last winter? Who were the guys that would have made a significant difference for the 2023 team and projected to continue to be that guy through, say, 2027-28 or so. Other than going harder for Senga and maybe Eflin (and I don't think anyone last winter was thinking he'd be a frontline guy), the list of free agents that signed wasn't chock full of guys sure to be top of the rotation staples for years to come. And a whole lot of them were busts this year for various reasons (mostly injury).

 

[simplicio]

I never said the top of the free agent pitching market sucks; I want them to attack it hard to get a couple guys this winter. But timing matters; you look at the prospects expected to graduate in 24-25 adding to the existing core, and top starters are the one thing you need, so now is the time to go get them.

This winter's FA pitching class is huge and has been on everyone's radar for years. It's a really great time to line up with your window. It makes so much more sense to wait and get the best (earliest) years of a FA starter to coincide with that, rather than wasting them on the 2021-23 borderline contender teams.

Don’t mean to harp on your posts @simplicio as I do enjoy them



Because you think that starter will be good for a while and you don’t expect your 200million payroll to be four years into that rebuild still needing a complete starting rotation overhaul (plus Bello) to compete.


No, it’s predicated on the fact that you have a desperate need for (edit- starting) pitching at all levels.

If you stay away from the top of the FA market because it sucks and stay away from drafting pitchers because that sucks then you just hope you stumble across some organically, which seems to be the (absence of) plan.

Where are they to come from?

 

[iddoc]

I think the simplicity of this one sentence carries a lot of weight.

Since 1986, actually.

 

[jon abbey]

This winter's FA pitching class is huge and has been on everyone's radar for years.

With Urias' future being very unclear and Ohtani being in his own category (and not pitching again until 2025), who is left in the top tier? Yamamoto, Snell, Nola? Sonny Gray maybe, he has gotten to 140 innings twice in the last five full seasons and will be 34 in December. Anyone else?

 

[simplicio]

Montgomery too, and Erod and Stroman both have opt outs.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Eduardo Rodriguez can opt out. Hyun-Jin Ryu.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

With Urias' future being very unclear and Ohtani being in his own category (and not pitching again until 2025), who is left in the top tier? Yamamoto, Snell, Nola? Sonny Gray maybe, he has gotten to 140 innings twice in the last five full seasons and will be 34 in December. Anyone else?

Yeah, it’s really not that great.

Yamamoto
Nola
Snell
Giolito
Kershaw
Morton
Gray
Stroman
Ryu
Flaherty
Severino
EdRo
Montgomery
Lynn
Morton
Lugo
Wacha (option)
Heaney (option)

Probably 4-5 guys there that will get deals of 5+ years but if the Sox don’t land Yamamoto or Nola, could easily see them go the stopgap route again. Ryu looks like a pretty good target.

 

[JM3]

Forget Trey Ball. Jack Leiter was supposed to be as close to a sure thing as you could find in a drafted pitcher. And he is simply awful.

A bit early to write off Leiter. Probably safe to write off Trey Ball, though.

View: https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1703226589004091722

 

[simplicio]

Ryu looks like a pretty good target.

I don't like Ryu for us, he's obviously looked great this year but hasn't pitched a full season since 2021 and if there's one thing we don't need it's another sub-100 IP guy. Plus we're talking about ramping up to that full workload as a 37 year old.

I think a bad team signs him with the intent of trading him at the deadline.

 

[8slim]

But again, why would you want to waste resources on a frontline starter while in a rebuild? This winter is the first time since 2018 it will make sense to do that.

Because unfortunately the rules state that we’ve had to field an MLB squad the past 4 years, and a frontline starter might have made those teams better?

More seriously, what harm would have occurred? Not spending money on stopgap flyers like Paxton and Kluber? One guy blocking the younger guys from filling the perpetual 3 annual holes in the rotation?

I’m not saying we should have given someone a Boegarts deal. But it sure seems to me that a frontline starter might have landed us in the playoffs this year. Why would that have been a bad thing? Especially when it seems ownership kinda want that, hence the Bloom termination.

 

[chawson]

Because you think that starter will be good for a while and you don’t expect your 200million payroll to be four years into that rebuild still needing a complete starting rotation overhaul (plus Bello) to compete.


No, it’s predicated on the fact that you have a desperate need for (edit- starting) pitching at all levels.

If you stay away from the top of the FA market because it sucks and stay away from drafting pitchers because that sucks then you just hope you stumble across some organically, which seems to be the (absence of) plan.

Where are they to come from?

The question is who is that guy from among the pitchers that changed teams last winter? Who were the guys that would have made a significant difference for the 2023 team and projected to continue to be that guy through, say, 2027-28 or so. Other than going harder for Senga and maybe Eflin (and I don't think anyone last winter was thinking he'd be a frontline guy), the list of free agents that signed wasn't chock full of guys sure to be top of the rotation staples for years to come. And a whole lot of them were busts this year for various reasons (mostly injury).

As R(s)HF notes, it’s an exceptionally short list of pitchers who fit this bill, using hindsight. I’d add Gausman to the list too, though you’d be relying on him to be the same guy during his age 33-35 seasons. Possible, but we’ll see.

There’s also the likelihood that they always planned for 2023 to be the luxury tax reset year, allowing them to go big in a relatively flush pitching market, and absorb a Devers extension. Resetting in 2023, as we have, also prevents them from having to reset in 2024, which could be useful if you want to go big on Soto.

If you’re in 2021 and betting on an offense over the next few seasons to add pitching to, it makes a lot more sense to bet on the 2024-25 teams. And like a few posters keep trying to point out, the issue of opportunity cost is quite significant.

 

[Max Power]

Of course a frontline starter would have made them better. No one is ever going to disagree with that statement. The team was built to contend if certain things broke right which they obviously didn't. But it was also built to break in young talent and give those youngsters a chance to prove themselves (or not). If they sign a "frontline" starter, and he stays healthy, do we ever find out what Kutter Crawford can do as a full time starter? Or is it Whitlock who remains a question mark? Or Houck? There's an opportunity cost to bringing in a high-priced frontline starter to a rebuilding team that was borderline to contend in the first place.

So there are a dozen games left in the season without a frontline starter where there were tons of opportunities to find out the answers to those questions. And I don't think we're any closer to knowing than we were at this point last year. Whitlock still looks like someone who could start or relieve, but always gets injured. Houck still struggles after the 5th inning. Crawford still mixes brilliance with utter garbage. Bringing in someone who was better than all of them to give 180 innings wouldn't have hurt anyone else's chances to help the team and may have resulted in a playoff appearance.

 

[tims4wins]

As R(s)HF notes, it’s an exceptionally short list of pitchers who fit this bill, using hindsight. I’d add Gausman to the list too, though you’d be relying on him to be the same guy during his age 33-35 seasons. Possible, but we’ll see.

There’s also the likelihood that they always planned for 2023 to be the luxury tax reset year, allowing them to go big in a relatively flush pitching market, and absorb a Devers extension. Resetting in 2023, as we have, also prevents them from having to reset in 2024, which could be useful if you want to go big on Soto.

If you’re in 2021 and betting on an offense over the next few seasons to add pitching to, it makes a lot more sense to bet on the 2024-25 teams. And like a few posters keep trying to point out, the issue of opportunity cost is quite significant.

Then why was he fired.