This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
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Even Shah Khan isn't moving on from the first coach to get him to the playoffs after 2 years. Pederson has one more year at least.
Bill’s first love is the defense, and by maybe a wider a margin than we really fully appreciate. Nobody is better on that side of the ball, both at coaching them up and picking them. Bill rarely talks to players coming off the field, but the few times you see it, it feels like it is almost always one of his guys on defense. I just think it has always been his passion. I guess that is not a secret, but it’s just coming to a head.
The thing about the “was it Brady all along debate” is that Brady wasn’t just good as a player, he also was like a co-offensive coordinator, and I think that as much as anything was the reason for the synergy. He gave Bill a little more time to focus on what he loves — defense, and preaching situational awareness. This year we are just seeing a genius stretched too thin. He is too old and set to be plugging every single hole that springs a leak.
I don’t think there is a team in the league that wouldn’t jump up at least one notch or maybe two if they brought in Bill as a defensive consultant. It’s going to be really sad if, whether due to hubris or inability to carve out appropriate roles, the Patriots and Bill can’t find a way to leverage what he’s best at in a way that he and they can live with.
The thing about the “was it Brady all along debate” is that Brady wasn’t just good as a player, he also was like a co-offensive coordinator, and I think that as much as anything was the reason for the synergy. He gave Bill a little more time to focus on what he loves — defense, and preaching situational awareness. This year we are just seeing a genius stretched too thin. He is too old and set to be plugging every single hole that springs a leak.
I don’t think there is a team in the league that wouldn’t jump up at least one notch or maybe two if they brought in Bill as a defensive consultant. It’s going to be really sad if, whether due to hubris or inability to carve out appropriate roles, the Patriots and Bill can’t find a way to leverage what he’s best at in a way that he and they can live with.
Kinda surprised Josh hasnt been brought in as the usual late year ‘consultant’ they offer prior O / D coordinators that get fired. Maybe him and BoB dont mesh.
The Patriots needed O'Brien more than he needed them, so I wouldn't be surprised if he made it clear that such a move would not fly as a condition of agreeing to take the position.
I think they don't want to undercut BoB. Last time they did that it was because BoB was already leaving and they planned to have Josh back at OC. I don't think that's the case this year. I think Josh is highly unlikely to be the next OC for the Patriots, it may be BoB, it may be someone else (especially if Bill leaves), but I think the Josh cycle is done for now.
I think Josh might want to take some time away from the game while still getting paid by the Raiders. It's what I would do in his shoes.
Assuming that the Raiders are in fact still paying him, I would take a year too. Network, keep your name out there, but recharge the batteries.
I think the questions around BB have to go beyond just personnel matters and extend to building a coaching staff. Highly regarded coordinators leaving for head coaching jobs (and taking some staff with them) has standard part of the NFL for as long as Bill has been in it. And yet he pissed away a whole season because this completely predictable NFL thing happened to him and he could not address it satisfactorily.
And then there is the question of talent evaluation. Watching Zappe play well, after cutting him in camp and then sticking by Mac throughout his complete implosion, also leads one to wonder what the hell is going on. Zappe's playing without the best player on the offense, with the same patchwork OL that Mac had to deal with, etc. I don't think Zappe is anything great, I think at best he's less than "average NFL starting QB," but next to Mac he simply looks better.
I can understand that Mac had a good rookie year and the chaos of last year didn't help him and wanting to take a long look... but if that is the thinking, why let Mac's leading pass catcher walk over money you can afford? That's back into personnel matters.
It's time for BB to move on or be moved on. He should go to a talented team with a good football operation in place that just needs the coach, and he should just be a coach.
It's time for the Pats to find someone else to be their next head of football ops. BB might not be done, but is he, at 71, the guy who will see this 4-win team through the next rebuild? I doubt it. Better to start anew now rather than in 2-3 years in the middle of a rebuild.
And then there is the question of talent evaluation. Watching Zappe play well, after cutting him in camp and then sticking by Mac throughout his complete implosion, also leads one to wonder what the hell is going on. Zappe's playing without the best player on the offense, with the same patchwork OL that Mac had to deal with, etc. I don't think Zappe is anything great, I think at best he's less than "average NFL starting QB," but next to Mac he simply looks better.
I can understand that Mac had a good rookie year and the chaos of last year didn't help him and wanting to take a long look... but if that is the thinking, why let Mac's leading pass catcher walk over money you can afford? That's back into personnel matters.
It's time for BB to move on or be moved on. He should go to a talented team with a good football operation in place that just needs the coach, and he should just be a coach.
It's time for the Pats to find someone else to be their next head of football ops. BB might not be done, but is he, at 71, the guy who will see this 4-win team through the next rebuild? I doubt it. Better to start anew now rather than in 2-3 years in the middle of a rebuild.
I never understood why defensive scores are not separated from offensive scores when doing points per game average. For example, you might see a stat on tv where a team is averaging 28 points a game but if they get 2 defensive scores a week (exaggerated example) isn't their offense really only scoring 14 points a game? What am I missing? By the same token a team might be giving up 28 points a game, but their QB is sucky and averages 2 pick sixes a game. So isn't the defense only averaging 14 points against? Why doesn't anyone on the pre game shows or stat heads smarter than me pick up on this?
Sorry for responding to an old post. This always bothered me and I saw this post as a jumping off point.
im a keep BB person. Maybe get him some gm help, or at least someone who can draft wr.
But all the people saying ‘get rid of BB’ need to name some actual replacements (just using you as a jumping off point). We always call out the abstract ‘get someone else’ in the red sox threads.
Just last nite we saw top coach Payton make several boneheaded blunders to cost his team the playoffs.
He definitely looks better than Mac did in numerous ways. I like his pocket presence (that first sack/fumble notwithstanding). But it helps when guys make plays. Parker made a tremendous catch down the sideline on a pass that he dropped for Mac. Douglas made a terrific catch. Elliott hurdled a guy for a TD on a simple swing pass. Guys weren’t making these same plays for Mac.
But Zappe has still been better, IMO. They just look more…lively on offense.
Disagree. It's reasonable to be skeptical of the future of a 71 year old coach who has achieved very little for the past 5 years without knowing league personnel well enough to hire the next guy.
doesnt fly in sox threads but does here? Got it
He remains the best coach in the league. He probably needs some help in the front office.
I'd be open to keeping him on as coach if they hire a GM who will be his successor as the head of the football operation. BB can keep the final word on the roster while he's here but I want someone else handling the draft, contracts, etc.
Facts not in evidence.
This team hasn't been great in over 5 years. They have rotated between decent and horrific through a large sample size. They have been good, at best, in 2021. They were middling in 2020. They were lousy in 2022. They have been somewhat of a joke in 2023.
Do you feel the same way about Pete Carroll, a year older than Belichick, and whose teams haven't advanced past the divisional round since "Interception Malcolm Butler!!!!"? Because the media narrative is that Carroll is some sort of coaching genius who expects to be running the Seahawks for the forseeable future?
Carroll works with this guy:
He also has 29 coordinators and assistants while BB has 19.*
* Actually 18 with Klemm unavailable.
You think not to close to a single playoff win in 5 years was "expected"?
And the Pats need to bring in some new blood on offense. I don't know the best way to go because I am. not a GM in the NFL about it but they need new voices. In a perfect world, BB would stay on as head coach and give up GM duties. But that's not going to happen. So the team will muddle along with an elite defense and a terrible offense and win 5-9 games a year.
Or if they got average QB play this year, they would be contending for the division...
I think it's fair to say that after a twenty year run that involved GFIN moves during the closing years of Brady's reign, you certainly shouldn't be surprised about how things have played out.
As for how BB will handle this, no one has a clue, although he certainly sees what we're seeing. I'm guessing his intellect and competitive desire outweigh his ego, and we see some structural changes in the organization put in place during the off-season that take a fair bit off his plate. You can bet otherwise, and if you're right I'll be happy to take him to the airport. But right now, anyone's assumptions about how he will do as a coach going forward seem to be based mostly on ageism or overvaluing the dismissive attitude he's had toward the media over the years.
You are not surprised that four years post-Brady they are a 4 win team, one of the worst teams in the league with a roster that has almost no playmakers?
I think there is a case for keeping BB but it really rides heavily on his 2019 and before track record, and the last few years being an anomaly or sabotaged by Mac. I think at this point that I disagree with that analysis but I can at least see it. But you are essentially hoping the guy who presided over a crap offense in 2022, did close to nothing about it only to see a historically terrible offense in 2023 completely derail the season is the right guy to pick the next QB, build a roster around him and then develop that guy into at least a competent NFL QB. I was a BB guy all the way until this year but now I find myself leaning the other way.
And Zappe’s OK play to me is another black mark against him. Zappe ain’t great but he’s so clearly better than Mac. Why the coaching staff could not see this is a mystery, among many other mysteries at Patriot Place these days. I thought BB played the guys who gave him the best chance to win in any given week.
(1) Not all that much. It appears to be conventional wisdom that they would have won more games this year if BB had thrown Mac under the bus earlier, so the talent level on the team is likely worth a few more wins. As far as sticking with Mac relates to your (3) point, I didn't have much of a problem with sticking with Mac early because we needed to see what he could bring to the table with a new OC, and later because his continued presence enhanced our draft options. Not going to Zappe earlier boils down to a base rates issue of sorts. BZs cycle in and out of the league on a steady basis, and it's probably true that diamonds in the rough are passed over in some instances. I have a hard time criticizing BB for staying with Mac as long as he did to feel as certain as he could when pulling the plug on him, particularly when the league seemed to be in unanimous agreement about Zappe when the Pats put him on waivers.
I don't really disagree with anything in your second paragraph; I was too vague in terms of what I assumed Bill would be giving up to stay. I don't know if that involves giving up the GM title altogether or keeping it with substantial, pre-agreed parameters that put more assistance and supervision in place, and I'm assuming that BB the coach's track record has been undermined by BB the GM's decisions in recent years. I would be unhappy with going into the draft with status quo.
They wouldn’t have 10+ wins at this point in the season with merely average QB play. No chance.
In the week 16 thread, I'm trying to make the parallel between the current Patriots and the Ravens from 2015-2017 (really, 2013-2017). Teams with good track records that fell into years of mediocrity and a singularly awful, horrendous season. And yet Baltimore didn't fire Harbaugh because they knew he was a good coach. They turned it around. Yes they hit on a star QB, but they could easily have fired Harbaugh long before they drafted Lamar. Three straight seasons of no playoff appearances, 22-26 overall, and they stuck with him. And they're very glad they did. It's a cautionary tale for NE, perhaps.
Now it's not apples to apples - Harbaugh was much younger than BB is today, and that's a factor, obviously. But all the logic that's been applied in this Pats' case could have been applied then - a team with not a lot of talent (especially on offense), a bunch of "meh" seasons, one terrible one where they just looked awful on the field, maybe Harbaugh's time has run its course there, time for a new direction. Etc. etc.
Now it's not apples to apples - Harbaugh was much younger than BB is today, and that's a factor, obviously. But all the logic that's been applied in this Pats' case could have been applied then - a team with not a lot of talent (especially on offense), a bunch of "meh" seasons, one terrible one where they just looked awful on the field, maybe Harbaugh's time has run its course there, time for a new direction. Etc. etc.
Watching what BB is doing with a short-handed defense is what should give everyone pause, myself included. The guy adds so much value on that side of the ball that if you can just get the offense to mediocre, you have a wild card calibre team. Get Judon, Gonzalez, and M Jones back and you have a good to very good dedense. Barmore is turning into a force. Hopefully White and Mapu can make Year 2 jumps. Bring Dugger back, if it’s reasonable. Otherwise, BB will fill the spot fine.
There is a path where you get Daniels, some skill position/OL help in FA, and you’re much better. The turnaround can be quick, if BB executes the draft and FA well. But there is reasonable doubt to have that he’s the right guy to do that given the recent performance. But I’d probably be willing to give him one final shot at it with this unique draft position provided he accept some more help.
Agree, but 8-9 wins, hanging around the wildcard hunt, and being tough out if they did get in was all in play. He waited too long to pull the trigger on benching Mac, and putting Zappe in.
Yes, we have hindsight. The context of my post was that BB is not going to "bottom out" to rebuild even if it makes sense for the team in the way that others have been willing to do, and pointing out some differences between him and the Rams who traded up to get the stars they wanted.
At the time, it would have made more sense to not bother making the Cam Newton offense in 2020, which was not going to be the next championship Pats team, and see what happened with the current slate of QBs plus whoever he might sign instead of Cam and a normal offense. He had job security and it didn't matter financially if the team sucked because no one was going to the games that year. Also players were opting out because of COVID and catching it and missing games (I believe we had the most in the league including Hightower). That is absolutely the time to "tank" even if that just means you don't bother signing a real QB when you just lost the GOAT.
(If Daniels or Maye ends up being as bad as Wilson they will be in the same place but 4 years later and wasting a good defense like the Jets did. That's a risk with any set of QBs. Imagine the board then.)
He had no way of knowing most of the QBs would be bad (and maybe someone like Fields isn't bad in a different situation anyway). As it was he barely got the last 1st round QB with the 15th pick. It seems like his attitude on team-building is, relative to the rest of the league, that he is loathe to trade a lot to get star players, he puts a very high value on competing every year, and he puts a high value on the end of the roster. I think this was probably reasonable in 2005 or when you manage to draft Gronk in the second round or Randy Moss is disgruntled somewhere else and wants to play with the GOAT, but is not as much of an advantage now when other teams are better at filling out their rosters and sustained team success is more driven by having stars who provide value on a second contract.
Another questionable personnel issue for the Pats is BB's decision to go 2 full years without a legit third down back.
Throughout the full dynastic period that began in 2001, which we can safely call "over" now, receiving backs have been a fixture.
2001: Kevin Faulk, JR Redmond
2002: Faulk
2003: Faulk, Larry Centers
2004-05: Faulk, Patrick Pass
2006-09: Faulk
2010-12: Danny Woodhead
2013-14: Shane Vereen
2015-16: James White, Dion Lewis
2017: White, Lewis, Rex Burkhead
2018: White
2019-20: White, Burkhead
2021: White (until career ending injury), Bolden
2022-23: ---
Of course, in 2022 and 2023, the lead backs - first Stevenson and then Elliott - played the role of third down back. But that has often not been great. For a team as dependent on the short game as the Pats, not having a smaller, quicker back to throw to is a problem. And it reflects either poor decisionmaking on BB's part (deciding that a core role on all of his SB winning teams could be dispensed with) or a poor player personnel function (also Bill's responsibility).
I was thinking about this because the leading receiver on the Pats is Zeke Elliott this year, Stevenson is 4th despite missing 3 games, and neither one is great in terms of yards after catch. If we focus on Bailey Zappe, here are his leading receivers:
1. Zeke, 26 catches
2. Parker, 15
3. Henry, 14
4. Douglas, 12
5T. Schuster and Thornton, 7
In the past 2 weeks, Zeke has caught 14 passes for 54 yards (and this includes his great 15 yard TD catch).
This is just one more way that Bill either cannot or will not put a complete team on the field.
Throughout the full dynastic period that began in 2001, which we can safely call "over" now, receiving backs have been a fixture.
2001: Kevin Faulk, JR Redmond
2002: Faulk
2003: Faulk, Larry Centers
2004-05: Faulk, Patrick Pass
2006-09: Faulk
2010-12: Danny Woodhead
2013-14: Shane Vereen
2015-16: James White, Dion Lewis
2017: White, Lewis, Rex Burkhead
2018: White
2019-20: White, Burkhead
2021: White (until career ending injury), Bolden
2022-23: ---
Of course, in 2022 and 2023, the lead backs - first Stevenson and then Elliott - played the role of third down back. But that has often not been great. For a team as dependent on the short game as the Pats, not having a smaller, quicker back to throw to is a problem. And it reflects either poor decisionmaking on BB's part (deciding that a core role on all of his SB winning teams could be dispensed with) or a poor player personnel function (also Bill's responsibility).
I was thinking about this because the leading receiver on the Pats is Zeke Elliott this year, Stevenson is 4th despite missing 3 games, and neither one is great in terms of yards after catch. If we focus on Bailey Zappe, here are his leading receivers:
1. Zeke, 26 catches
2. Parker, 15
3. Henry, 14
4. Douglas, 12
5T. Schuster and Thornton, 7
In the past 2 weeks, Zeke has caught 14 passes for 54 yards (and this includes his great 15 yard TD catch).
This is just one more way that Bill either cannot or will not put a complete team on the field.
These are always the hard calls at 53-man cut time. I think that it's perfectly defensible to eschew a third-down back when Stevenson and Elliott are your two backs. It's not like Bill decided that 3DB aren't important anymore. He just decided that he needed depth somewhere else more. Does peak White/Faulk change this team much? I'm definitely glad that he had a schoolbus of defensive backs to throw out there when they started dropping like flies, for example.
After watching the Ravens last night and thinking about their long-term roster construction over the years with a pretty high level of success, I’m convinced that the Pats need to take a run at Joe Hortiz as their next GM. He’s been with Baltimore for 25 years in all aspects of scouting and has his fingerprints all over that franchise. In terms of talent evaluation and college scouting, there may not be a better fit for a team like the Pats with a shaky track record in evaluating potential draft picks.
And that’s another data point against the talent evaluation by the Pats. Ty Montgomery hasn’t played a full season in his entire career and he wasn’t that great even when healthy. He hasn’t been even *good* since 2016. He has like 200 total rushing yards in the last 5 seasons.
UseLess. Waste of a roster spot. They are better off trying something new and not the same retreat shit.(Juju, Jonnu, Nelson A, Parker, etc.)
That’s the point, they are bringing in guys who have lousy track records who live up to them.
We've discussed 3rd down backs before. But.... it's a dying position, there are very very few 3rd down backs around the league for various reasons.
Even then, Bill tried to get replacements for White the way he got all his past 3rd down back... by drafting guys and trying to teach them (Taylor, Strong, etc.) they didn't develop to a level where they were a better option on the field than Rham or Elliot. Which is really the case league wide.... if a guy can catch, is quick and can block well, the 3 key elements in a 3rd down back..... he's now just a starting RB. 3rd down specialists are a relic of the past. RBs are also less involved in the pass game than ever.... likely because LBs are quicker so there are fewer mismatches to be had. RB targets are way down league wide the last few years.
Even then, Bill tried to get replacements for White the way he got all his past 3rd down back... by drafting guys and trying to teach them (Taylor, Strong, etc.) they didn't develop to a level where they were a better option on the field than Rham or Elliot. Which is really the case league wide.... if a guy can catch, is quick and can block well, the 3 key elements in a 3rd down back..... he's now just a starting RB. 3rd down specialists are a relic of the past. RBs are also less involved in the pass game than ever.... likely because LBs are quicker so there are fewer mismatches to be had. RB targets are way down league wide the last few years.
Navy town/good
Fairly easy division
Ability to put a franchise on the map if successful once again
Relatively short flights to Annapolis/DMV and Boston
One has to hope that isn't true. If ownership can't have an honest conversation with their all-time great Head Coach, then it doesn't bode well for the future.
If you'd rather, consider it a depth issue rather than getting hung up on the specialist aspect of it. Teams most definitely want playmaking receivers out of the backfield still, and the Pats are inadequate there and have been for some time.
In fairness they have had to put a premium on blocking from that position because of Mac and/or this year with all the line injuries. I think people assume fail when in reality it just might be his attempt to put the best squad together given constraints. Snagging Elliot pushed Harris down on the depth chart, maybe making it harder to hold that back. I think a lot of the criticism of bb out there starts from the sense that he has lost his mojo or sucks whatever, but a lot might just be constraints and him taking a longer term view. That being said, I don't get the ty Montgomery fixation for so long. I think he was supposed to be that guy but yeah.
Montgomery is a WR/RB, he can legit run the whole route tree, so Bill I think was willing to keep trying with him longer than most, since he has a skillset few RBs do. He also was (until he fell apart this year) a good ST player.
One thing I also think looking back on that list.... what makes Burkhead, Bolden, etc, receiving backs that Zeke isn't? I get the idea that we might separate him from some of the smaller, quicker backs, but Zeke has been a pass-catcher his whole career and a blocker on 3rd. I think that because he was once upon a time a top 3 down back, and he isn't explosively quick people are missing that he is a 3rd down back in the mold of Burkhead, certainly more so than Bolden.
Last time we had this discussion the only FA "3rd down back", available, Samaji Perine came up.... his receiving numbers and Zeke's prior to this year were very similar but Zeke did it at higher volume.
Honestly I think this whole discussion is dumb. We carried two RBs who can and have been significant passing game players in the past few years. What we didn't carry was a small back, that's very different from the "passing back" that people seem to think we were missing.
I think there is some argument to be had about whether you'd like to have a 4.3 speed guy to mix into the rotation, but that is a very different argument than the "3rd down back".
And they had JJ Taylor as the “3rd down back” type, but he was a liability in blitz pickup, a big part of the job description
If they are following the same process (postseason confab) they have used every season with BB, then it's hard to kick about that.
That's true, except that in every one of those seasons, there was never a question about ownership moving on from Bill. If it's all just media click-baiting then yes, fine. But if the Krafts have already made up their minds and (worse) have been leaking that decision, then that's a different kettle of fish. At this point of course, we don't know.
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