This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

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DavidTai

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Which is why I mostly think the problem the last few years has been the coaching exodus – not only Josh but Flores (who probably took the OC in waiting in Chad O’Shea). That’s also why I have been saying for months that the reason he did the Patricia/Judge two headed hydra thing was that they were guys who knew Bill’s culture and system and could maybe fill the void. They didn’t but it’s not necessarily clear to me that it was their fault – players aren’t the only ones who leave an organization.
Agreed. Not only that, but a lot of those coaches are responsible for coaching up draft picks, and it seems fair to wonder how much the new coaches are lacking. Another reason I'd run it back with Belichick, -but- hire the coaches Bill O'Brien wants for HIS system so he can coach up the talent his way.

Mostly, I'd pay good money to find whoever's been the most effective at coaching/developing up WRs and hire -that- guy.
 

4 6 3 DP

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I should have chosen my words more carefully and you were right to call me out on it. I generally think the team building approach has been lacking over the last many years but Gonzalez was not a good example of that. My apologies.
 
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Which is why I mostly think the problem the last few years has been the coaching exodus – not only Josh but Flores (who probably took the OC in waiting in Chad O’Shea). That’s also why I have been saying for months that the reason he did the Patricia/Judge two headed hydra thing was that they were guys who knew Bill’s culture and system and could maybe fill the void. They didn’t but it’s not necessarily clear to me that it was their fault – players aren’t the only ones who leave an organization.
Who was fired after one season as the OC of Miami in '19. I'd take Josh or BoB (2 of the 3 coordinators - after O'Shea left with Flores) over him 8 days a week.

The coaching staff (overall) is solid IMO, with maybe a need for robust review at the current / next O-Line coach situation.

The problem with this franchise at the moment centers around past drafts and the lack of playmakers on offense via those selections. It's really that simple.
 

BusRaker

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Judon was a solid player. Mills was underwhelming and Godcheaux/Jonnu Smith were not good signings. The entire tenure of Bourne has been up and down but ok. Agholor was a disaster. That is how free agency works though. Some signings that work, some don't but they're almost always overpaid.
Jonnu Smith played over 4th overall pick Kyle Pitts much of this year (which basically no one thought was any sort of Cole Strange reach). It wasn't the signing that sucked.
 

tims4wins

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Yes. Overpaid but solid.

I would also argue that Agholar, while also overpaid, wasn’t the disaster people have suggested. No he didn’t live up to the contract but what he brought to the offense has been kinda missed this year. I think a lot of his value was stretching the field, even when the ball wasn’t coming to him. Perhaps they thought Thornton could take a leap in year 2 but it resulted in even more clogged space underneath and Mac having to make even quicker reads.

I’m generally in the camp that the 2021 signings were mostly okay. One home run (Judon), two solid players (Henry/Bourne), one bust (Jonnu) and a bunch of guys that mostly did what they needed them to do (Mills/Godchaux/Agholar) even if it wasn’t particularly sparkling.

Thats the thing about Bill’s personnel record: he tends to get the guys his teams need to win. For all the consternation over his inability to draft receivers, it took 20+ years for that to actually bite him in the ass. You can say, “But Brady …” but there have really only been two or three years total where you can say their receiving corps was shitty. And even this year isn’t as bad as 2006 was (and that was at least partly because of the Branch situation).

Which is why I mostly think the problem the last few years has been the coaching exodus – not only Josh but Flores (who probably took the OC in waiting in Chad O’Shea). That’s also why I have been saying for months that the reason he did the Patricia/Judge two headed hydra thing was that they were guys who knew Bill’s culture and system and could maybe fill the void. They didn’t but it’s not necessarily clear to me that it was their fault – players aren’t the only ones who leave an organization.
Who was fired after one season as the OC of Miami in '19. I'd take Josh or BoB (2 of the 3 coordinators - after O'Shea left with Flores) over him 8 days a week.

The coaching staff (overall) is solid IMO, with maybe a need for robust review at the current / next O-Line coach situation.

The problem with this franchise at the moment centers around past drafts and the lack of playmakers on offense via those selections. It's really that simple.
Yeah while there has been significant brain drain, O'Shea is not a good example IMO. The Pats had an opening at OC in 2022 and chose Matt Patricia, when it would have been a promotion for O'Shea from his role as WR coach / passing game coordinator in Cleveland. The fact that they gave the job to Patricia over O'Shea speaks volumes IMO considering BB had significant experience with both, and O'Shea had something like 15 years of experience on offense at that time. He joined the Patriots in 2009, so he was here for like 10 years. It's not like BB barely knew him.
 

Cellar-Door

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Jonnu Smith played over 4th overall pick Kyle Pitts much of this year (which basically no one thought was any sort of Cole Strange reach). It wasn't the signing that sucked.
Fit didn't work really. The staff seemed to think they could get one of the two guys to a higher level of blocking.... didn't work so they couldn't play together. Also didn't help that I think Mac is not very good at getting the ball to guys in ways that let them get YAC (too slow to decide, too slow on the throw, etc.) and Smith does his best work with the ball in his hands rather than running routes.
 

johnmd20

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The 'grocery shopping' analogy, if we're gonna use that, is way oversimplified because there are a) multiple chefs in the NFL, b) 'free agent' ingredients are one of a kind, and shop themselves, meaning -they- have to be willing to jump into the pot and be cooked, c) different chefs shop shop for different ingredients because they have different recipes, and d) draft picks are not, shall we say, fully developed ingredients, and require some development/refinement.

And ultimately, in today's NFL, the base of your cooking is the QB, and if you don't hit on the QB, everything else falls on itself and their flaws become much more highlighted.

In lots of ways, Belichick was shopping for years -highlighting- his QB, Brady, as the base of his recipes. Since then, replacing Brady with Jones has proven to be a problem because, ultimately, Jones has proven to be a souffle, where you have to cook just -right- or the whole thing collapses over and over.

If we're carrying the cooking analogy further, I think the biggest problem with Belichick is that his sous chefs the last few years has sucked (Patricia, Judge) and screwed over the souffle (Jones.) His previous sous chef (McDaniels) took a lot of the offense coaches with him, which would seem to indicate lack of continuity, meaning the last couple years has been spent with a bunch of new chefs on offense. In lots of ways, I'm not terribly surprised the defense, which had more continuity on coaching, is cooking better than the offense has.

At this point, if I were Kraft, I'd take a long hard look at the chefs on the offensive side of the ball and consider if the best way to improve the offense is to convince Belichick to hire the chefs O'Brien wants on offense and then shop to -what- that offense wants, and use that time to further work with the heir apparent/sous chef (Jerod Mayo).

I don't think it matters right now, however, who does all the cooking, because the signature dish revolving around the QB basically needs that QB and the rest is just shouting.
Everyone is talking about QB like it's this thing that happened to the Pats and there was nothing they could do. The QB was bad, so everyone is absolved. What can you do?

Meanwhile, Gardner Minshew (backup, cheap) has a chance to make the playoffs, Mason Rudolph, (awful) Mitch Trubisky, (worse) and Kenny Pickett (worse again) have a chance, Joe Flacco (literally sitting on his couch at home in October on NFL Sundays) is going to the playoffs, and Baker Mayfield (basically free this offseason) has a win and in for the playoffs.

So, AGAIN, if the QB is that important, the fact that the Pats went into this season with no plan at QB except for a bad Mac Jones and a less bad because it *looks* better but it's just as bad Bailey Zappe is a serious problem.

They had no plan at QB. They trotted out the same shit. And after it was clear Mac Jones was both broken and had the yips, they kept on playing Mac Jones. For game after game. If the position is SO important, and it is, why did the Pats just not do anything but play bad players?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Everyone is talking about QB like it's this thing that happened to the Pats and there was nothing they could do. The QB was bad, so everyone is absolved. What can you do?

Meanwhile, Gardner Minshew (backup, cheap) has a chance to make the playoffs, Mason Rudolph, (awful) Mitch Trubisky, (worse) and Kenny Pickett (worse again) have a chance, Joe Flacco (literally sitting on his couch at home in October on NFL Sundays) is going to the playoffs, and Baker Mayfield (basically free this offseason) has a win and in for the playoffs.

So, AGAIN, if the QB is that important, the fact that the Pats went into this season with no plan at QB except for a bad Mac Jones and a less bad because it *looks* better but it's just as bad Bailey Zappe is a serious problem.

They had no plan at QB. They trotted out the same shit. And after it was clear Mac Jones was both broken and had the yips, they kept on playing Mac Jones. For game after game. If the position is SO important, and it is, why did the Pats just not do anything but play bad players?
I agree, but the argument seems to be that the only way to learn that Mac wasn’t the guy was to let him play a ton without a viable backup. The Pats would have been a playoff team with an average QB but didn’t get one because they had to confirm Mac wasn’t one, I guess.
 

johnmd20

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Jonnu Smith played over 4th overall pick Kyle Pitts much of this year (which basically no one thought was any sort of Cole Strange reach). It wasn't the signing that sucked.
Please don't use Arthur Smith's usage of players over other players as an example as to why Jonnu is good.

Arthur Smith's usage of his players is literally a running joke in the NFL. Plus, this is Jonnu's best season and he has 550 yards. He had 294 and 245 with the Pats because the Pats offense is bad and has no good players. But it's not like a 500 yard season is some tremendous level of production.

Sam LaPorta, rookie, drafted, has almost 900 yards this season. Dalton Kincade, rookie, drafted, has more yards than Jonnu this season and he's started only 66% of the season. Trey McBride, rookie, drafted, has 791 yards. Jake Fergerson, rookie, drafted, has 692 yards.

There are good players out there. The problem is that they don't end up on the Patriots.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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They had no plan at QB. They trotted out the same shit. And after it was clear Mac Jones was both broken and had the yips, they kept on playing Mac Jones. For game after game. If the position is SO important, and it is, why did the Pats just not do anything but play bad players?
Because if you're going to give up on a 1st round pick in his 3rd year, you have better be damn sure he can't play. And they made sure of it. They gave him tons of chances, despite bad game after bad game. Eventually he proved to the satisfaction of all that he couldn't play.
 

johnmd20

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I agree, but the argument seems to be that the only way to learn that Mac wasn’t the guy was to let him play a ton without a viable backup. The Pats would have been a playoff team with an average QB but didn’t get one because they had to confirm Mac wasn’t one, I guess.
Ah ha.

That's funny.
 
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Yeah while there has been significant brain drain, O'Shea is not a good example IMO. The Pats had an opening at OC in 2022 and chose Matt Patricia, when it would have been a promotion for O'Shea from his role as WR coach / passing game coordinator in Cleveland. The fact that they gave the job to Patricia over O'Shea speaks volumes IMO considering BB had significant experience with both, and O'Shea had something like 15 years of experience on offense at that time. He joined the Patriots in 2009, so he was here for like 10 years. It's not like BB barely knew him.
No way am I going to defend the MP move. I can't run away from that one.

However, after Josh left - O'Shea was available to be recruited for the role. BB didn't think he was worthy of the OC spot - and neither have any other NFL Teams (including Josh in LV).

I'm not trying to trash O'Shea here; I just think the statement that 'brain-drain' via the coaching carousel is faulty logic.
 

Cellar-Door

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Everyone is talking about QB like it's this thing that happened to the Pats and there was nothing they could do. The QB was bad, so everyone is absolved. What can you do?

Meanwhile, Gardner Minshew (backup, cheap) has a chance to make the playoffs, Mason Rudolph, (awful) Mitch Trubisky, (worse) and Kenny Pickett (worse again) have a chance, Joe Flacco (literally sitting on his couch at home in October on NFL Sundays) is going to the playoffs, and Baker Mayfield (basically free this offseason) has a win and in for the playoffs.

So, AGAIN, if the QB is that important, the fact that the Pats went into this season with no plan at QB except for a bad Mac Jones and a less bad because it *looks* better but it's just as bad Bailey Zappe is a serious problem.

They had no plan at QB. They trotted out the same shit. And after it was clear Mac Jones was both broken and had the yips, they kept on playing Mac Jones. For game after game. If the position is SO important, and it is, why did the Pats just not do anything but play bad players?
Because there is more value in a full year of evaluation on your 1st round QB than there is in wining 2 more games? And there were no really viable options that made them a contender, the Patriots are/were still in a rebuild despite what Kraft may have wanted to believe, the team had stripped down the number of long term deals, was rebuilding the line on the fly, etc. I'd also say that Zappe falling apart in camp surprised them likely, he looked competent last year, not good, not high upside but competent.

QB is the biggest issue, but far from the only one. In particular the teams you mentioned (though the Steelers are smoke and mirrors) all have good to very good line play.
 

cshea

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Mac was fine in 2021. 2022 he regressed, badly, but everyone agreed, including the owner, to blame it on Patricia and Judge. They brought in O'Brien who everyone agreed was a qualified OC in an attempt to get back to the 2021 version of Mac and the offense.

I don't think anyone was really calling for Mac to be benched heading into this season. In hindsight, yes, should've invested more in a veteran backup.
 

BigJimEd

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Are we sure we want O'Brien back? Let alone picking his coaches. All this talk about picking chefs and assuming the main offensive chef is back seems premature. HC is obviously the first choice but OC is right behind it. The criticism of Patricia is near universal but this years offense has been worse. Not saying BOB should be gone. Just that they need to evaluate that spot as well especially and assuming you are looking to develop a new young QB.




So, AGAIN, if the QB is that important, the fact that the Pats went into this season with no plan at QB except for a bad Mac Jones and a less bad because it *looks* better but it's just as bad Bailey Zappe is a serious problem.
Asked and answered at least a dozen times.
 

tims4wins

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No way am I going to defend the MP move. I can't run away from that one.

However, after Josh left - O'Shea was available to be recruited for the role. BB didn't think he was worthy of the OC spot - and neither have any other NFL Teams (including Josh in LV).

I'm not trying to trash O'Shea here; I just think the statement that 'brain-drain' via the coaching carousel is faulty logic.
I think we are saying the same thing. BB did not view O'Shea as an asset.

That doesn't mean that there hasn't been some impact of brain drain, however.

But this is likely mostly a talent issue anyway. How much of the talent issue is due to brain drain in the front office is up for debate.
 

johnmd20

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Because there is more value in a full year of evaluation on your 1st round QB than there is in wining 2 more games? And there were no really viable options that made them a contender, the Patriots are/were still in a rebuild despite what Kraft may have wanted to believe, the team had stripped down the number of long term deals, was rebuilding the line on the fly, etc. I'd also say that Zappe falling apart in camp surprised them likely, he looked competent last year, not good, not high upside but competent.

QB is the biggest issue, but far from the only one. In particular the teams you mentioned (though the Steelers are smoke and mirrors) all have good to very good line play.
Throwing away a year doesn't have value when it was clear Mac wasn't on the edge of greatness. Weak arm, bad leader, but he's also really really slow too. His peak is literally game manager. When you have that, you try to have a backup plan.

Everyone is tying themselves up in knots. "The Pats are a playoff team with an average QB." "But they didn't try anything to get an average QB." "WHAT'S THE PONT OF TRYING TO WIN BECAUESE YOU HAVE TO EVALUATE MAC!!111!1!!!!"
 

Cellar-Door

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Throwing away a year doesn't have value when it was clear Mac wasn't on the edge of greatness. Weak arm, bad leader, but he's also really really slow too. His peak is literally game manager. When you have that, you try to have a backup plan.

Everyone is tying themselves up in knots. "The Pats are a playoff team with an average QB." "But they didn't try anything to get an average QB." "WHAT'S THE PONT OF TRYING TO WIN BECAUESE YOU HAVE TO EVALUATE MAC!!111!1!!!!"
I mean, I don't get your argument? You say "playoff team with an average QB".... maybe? Even if that is true, they had no avenue to an average QB other than the hope Mac developed, because none of the available options were average QBs.

What is it you wanted them to do?
There was nothing available to them that was better than the possibility that Mac improved as the starter (he ended up sucking) and there was nobody available and willing to be a backup who had the upside in this team to do anything short or long term (best was probably Brissett, but that's a 1 year bandaid and he's not taking this team anywhere this year beyond 6 to 8 wins), so save the money and if Mac tanks you are bad and get a good draft pick. People spent years complaining about building teams to be 8-8 and being on "the treadmill". This was the ideal way to build a team this season with a chance to maybe be a playoff team if it turns out your QB can develop, but if he doesn't you get into the position you haven't been in almost 15 years of having a draft pick high enough to get a truly elite talent at a skill position, potentially QB.
 

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Throwing away a year doesn't have value when it was clear Mac wasn't on the edge of greatness. Weak arm, bad leader, but he's also really really slow too. His peak is literally game manager. When you have that, you try to have a backup plan.

Everyone is tying themselves up in knots. "The Pats are a playoff team with an average QB." "But they didn't try anything to get an average QB." "WHAT'S THE PONT OF TRYING TO WIN BECAUESE YOU HAVE TO EVALUATE MAC!!111!1!!!!"
I don't know where you are going with this. Yes, the Pats are a playoff team with an average QB. They thought that Mac could be at least an average QB. He started out average and then declined steadily over the course of the season to the point where he got benched. They had to figure out if it was a slump or terminal to his career.

We found out.
 

Harry Hooper

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BB aggressively moved up in the draft to select Barmore, not that long ago.
 

sezwho

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Mac was fine in 2021. 2022 he regressed, badly, but everyone agreed, including the owner, to blame it on Patricia and Judge. They brought in O'Brien who everyone agreed was a qualified OC in an attempt to get back to the 2021 version of Mac and the offense.

I don't think anyone was really calling for Mac to be benched heading into this season. In hindsight, yes, should've invested more in a veteran backup.
Both to help Mac’s development and to put the team in a place for success, I think the better backup choice was a seasoned vet instead of a young red ass.
 

sezwho

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I mean, if he's that unstrung by a young QB with him in the coaches' room, he never had the mental fortitude to succeed in this league anyway.
Sure, if you see Macs failure as pre-ordained then it’s just arraignment of deck chairs for a couple years anyway.

If he did have some glimmer of success for BB to have uncovered however, then maybe that’s one of the things (like keeping his most reliable wr or having tackles) to have considered.

Certainly won’t argue the former with you, more wondering if BB might do anything different should he get the chance to draft and develop another qb.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think even though it didn't work out, saving the money from a backup QB to try and get two options at RT was far more likely to result in the offense doing well than the mythical vet backup QB.
Now Reiff got hurt and cliffed and Anderson had whatever medical issue, but I think that line depth in front of your young QB who struggles with pressure is the better bet than a backup QB who is definitionally well below average.
 

Justthetippett

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Are we sure we want O'Brien back? Let alone picking his coaches. All this talk about picking chefs and assuming the main offensive chef is back seems premature. HC is obviously the first choice but OC is right behind it. The criticism of Patricia is near universal but this years offense has been worse. Not saying BOB should be gone. Just that they need to evaluate that spot as well especially and assuming you are looking to develop a new
I'd at least undertake a process to evaluate who's out there for possible OCs. BOB hasn't done much this year. That said, he was good with a young Watson. To me you look comprehensively at the offensive side of the ball. It's all linked (QB, QB coach, OC, OL, OL coach). All are on the table.
 

NickEsasky

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I don't know where you are going with this. Yes, the Pats are a playoff team with an average QB. They thought that Mac could be at least an average QB. He started out average and then declined steadily over the course of the season to the point where he got benched. They had to figure out if it was a slump or terminal to his career.

We found out.
I guess we can just keep throwing around the bolded here because there's no way to prove otherwise. Convenient for all the "it's all on Mac" folks.
 

NickEsasky

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I think even though it didn't work out, saving the money from a backup QB to try and get two options at RT was far more likely to result in the offense doing well than the mythical vet backup QB.
Now Reiff got hurt and cliffed and Anderson had whatever medical issue, but I think that line depth in front of your young QB who struggles with pressure is the better bet than a backup QB who is definitionally well below average.
Except for the fact that the guys they picked up weren't even valuable to their former teams.
 

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I guess we can just keep throwing around the bolded here because there's no way to prove otherwise. Convenient for all the "it's all on Mac" folks.
Average QB play, not even "good", but average play wins them the NYG, IND and Chargers games. It might well win them the LV and WAS games.

They have a great defense even missing their top 2 players. It's no stretch to think that with an average QB that can put more points on the board (they have FIVE games this year with fewer than 10 points scored) that they'd be in the playoff mix.

I agree with you that a lot of this now sounds like matters of faith, but it's been a long season and nothing has really gotten solved saved that we now know Mac can't play.
 

sezwho

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I think even though it didn't work out, saving the money from a backup QB to try and get two options at RT was far more likely to result in the offense doing well than the mythical vet backup QB.
Now Reiff got hurt and cliffed and Anderson had whatever medical issue, but I think that line depth in front of your young QB who struggles with pressure is the better bet than a backup QB who is definitionally well below average.
Sure, I'll take quality tackle play over the backup qb if I have to choose. Was that a zero sum salary cap game I missed though? Maybe separate thread, but Hoyer made ~1m in '22 and I thought BB basically dropped him for being 'team Mac' during Patricia-gate.
 

Cellar-Door

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Except for the fact that the guys they picked up weren't even valuable to their former teams.
I mean in what sense? Both those guys started a significant number of games for their former teams just the year before. I get it, didn't work out therefore must have been bad, but that's not really how FA works, every team has an amount they can/will spend for backup/rotation guys.

Sure, I'll take quality tackle play over the backup qb if I have to choose. Was that a zero sum salary cap game I missed though? Maybe separate thread, but Hoyer made ~1m in '22 and I thought BB basically dropped him for being 'team Mac' during Patricia-gate.
Anyone who is actually good costs more, Hoyer made $4M two years ago, and $4.5M this year with LV and his buddy Josh. Hoyer got dropped because they had Zappe who was better and made less money. Hoyer has been beyond washed for years.
 

Dogman

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Average QB play, not even "good", but average play wins them the NYG, IND and Chargers games. It might well win them the LV and WAS games.

They have a great defense even missing their top 2 players. It's no stretch to think that with an average QB that can put more points on the board (they have FIVE games this year with fewer than 10 points scored) that they'd be in the playoff mix.

I agree with you that a lot of this now sounds like matters of faith, but it's been a long season and nothing has really gotten solved saved that we now know Mac can't play.
If all one score games (wins and loses) are reversed, this team sits at 8-8. An average QB has us on the cusp of the playoffs.
 

jezza1918

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Average QB play, not even "good", but average play wins them the NYG, IND and Chargers games. It might well win them the LV and WAS games.

They have a great defense even missing their top 2 players. It's no stretch to think that with an average QB that can put more points on the board (they have FIVE games this year with fewer than 10 points scored) that they'd be in the playoff mix.

I agree with you that a lot of this now sounds like matters of faith, but it's been a long season and nothing has really gotten solved saved that we now know Mac can't play.
If all one score games (wins and loses) are reversed, this team sits at 8-8. An average QB has us on the cusp of the playoffs.
Agreed with all of this. The only thing I do wonder about is if some of those teams knew we had average QB play if they approach the game differently with their own offense, and in turn put up more points. But outside of that I do think middle of the road QBing has Pats in, or at least fighting for, a playoff spot.
 

johnmd20

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I mean in what sense? Both those guys started a significant number of games for their former teams just the year before. I get it, didn't work out therefore must have been bad, but that's not really how FA works, every team has an amount they can/will spend for backup/rotation guys.
The point is none of it worked out.
 

NickEsasky

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I mean in what sense? Both those guys started a significant number of games for their former teams just the year before. I get it, didn't work out therefore must have been bad, but that's not really how FA works, every team has an amount they can/will spend for backup/rotation guys.
In the sense that Reiff was benched down the stretch for a bad Bears team and Anderson only started 7 games for a bad Broncos team. Neither were particularly good last year yet they were supposed to be the answer for us.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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If all one score games (wins and loses) are reversed, this team sits at 8-8. An average QB has us on the cusp of the playoffs.
What if you reverse every one score team for every team in the league, what then?

Just eyeballing and it looks like 8-9 games a week are decided by one score. So that’s like half of games.
 

Cellar-Door

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In the sense that Reiff was benched down the stretch for a bad Bears team and Anderson only started 7 games for a bad Broncos team. Neither were particularly good last year yet they were supposed to be the answer for us.
I mean they weren't supposed to be the answer, they were supposed to be what they were for other teams, affordable guys who can and have started NFL games when needed. If we got the level of play they were at in 2022 out of them this year probably looks quite different on the line at least.

Also not sure where you are getting the Reiff benching, he played 100% of the snaps in their last 3 games, 81% in the 4th to last, was hurt the week before that and played 100% weeks 8-11, he didn't get benched in fact he took over the starting spot mid-season and held it.
 

NickEsasky

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I mean they weren't supposed to be the answer, they were supposed to be what they were for other teams, affordable guys who can and have started NFL games when needed. If we got the level of play they were at in 2022 out of them this year probably looks quite different on the line at least.

Also not sure where you are getting the Reiff benching, he played 100% of the snaps in their last 3 games, 81% in the 4th to last, was hurt the week before that and played 100% weeks 8-11, he didn't get benched in fact he took over the starting spot mid-season and held it.
I legit thought the Reiff timeline was the opposite so that's my bad. Thanks for setting me straight on that part.
 

johnmd20

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I mean they weren't supposed to be the answer, they were supposed to be what they were for other teams, affordable guys who can and have started NFL games when needed. If we got the level of play they were at in 2022 out of them this year probably looks quite different on the line at least.

Also not sure where you are getting the Reiff benching, he played 100% of the snaps in their last 3 games, 81% in the 4th to last, was hurt the week before that and played 100% weeks 8-11, he didn't get benched in fact he took over the starting spot mid-season and held it.
You, incredibly, have an answer to everything as to why the Pats have been smart with their offensive plan this year.

Verdict: They have scored the least amount of points in the NFL. And they have scored WAY less points than most teams. If the goal of an offense is to score points, the Patriots are the worst team in the NFL. Please, I implore you to look at the actual results, not the theoretical ones.
 

Cellar-Door

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You, incredibly, have an answer to everything as to why the Pats have been smart with their offensive plan this year.

Verdict: They have scored the least amount of points in the NFL. And they have scored WAY less points than most teams. If the goal of an offense is to score points, the Patriots are the worst team in the NFL. Please, I implore you to look at the actual results, not the theoretical ones.
I get that day-drunk uncle calling WEEI is your schitck, but I implore you to read the posts, and perhaps think about process rather than results. I said that they should in fact go for the approach that let them either be good or if it failed be bad. That's what they did. They put Mac in the best spot they could, with the understanding that if he failed the team would be bad and they could go get his replacement. Sure, Bill could have pulled a Mickey Loomis, extended a bunch of mediocre guys to free up cap space, signed Brissett for $9M and told him it was an open competition (though maybe not, there are owner politics involved any time you bench a recent 1st round QB that the owner likes), overpaid a bunch of mediocre free agents, fucked the cap next year and won 7-9 games maybe? What is the point of that? Now some GMs do it because they are more interested in keeping their jobs than the long term success of the franchise, but that's not something you should want out of your GM/Coach.
 

ManicCompression

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The amount of agency removed from the man who literally oversees every decision this organization makes and has made over these past 5 years is kind of shocking. You might as well have an AI run the team if the results since Brady left were so unavoidable. What is the point of employing this guy if there was absolutely nothing to be done but get progressively worse over the last 4 years?

I fully expect them to to pick a QB that doesn't turn out this draft and then hear the excuses "Well, the consensus at the time was..." "No one could blame him because everyone else would've made that decision..." No, it's his job to make the right decisions that lead to results. That's why he gets paid $25 million a year and why he has carte blanche with his staff. Yet, somehow he's not accountable for all of the decisions that's led to a degradation in the team ever since he's been without Brady? To the BB defenders, what exactly should he be held responsible for - like what would you actually say is his fault? Because I've seen everything from the Patricia/Judge hiring to the Tyquan Thornton pick contextualized in this thread and I don't understand what value we think BB is bringing to the table if he's not actually culpable for his decisions.
 

johnmd20

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I get that day-drunk uncle calling WEEI is your schitck, but I implore you to read the posts, and perhaps think about process rather than results. I said that they should in fact go for the approach that let them either be good or if it failed be bad. That's what they did. They put Mac in the best spot they could, with the understanding that if he failed the team would be bad and they could go get his replacement. Sure, Bill could have pulled a Mickey Loomis, extended a bunch of mediocre guys to free up cap space, signed Brissett for $9M and told him it was an open competition (though maybe not, there are owner politics involved any time you bench a recent 1st round QB that the owner likes), overpaid a bunch of mediocre free agents, fucked the cap next year and won 7-9 games maybe? What is the point of that? Now some GMs do it because they are more interested in keeping their jobs than the long term success of the franchise, but that's not something you should want out of your GM/Coach.
If the results were lousy on offense for four straight years, including the worst offense in the NFL in 2023, I personally would begin to question the process.

You can call me a day drunk all you want. It's an insult but thank you for taking the time to type it. You're nuanced, I get it.
 

lexrageorge

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The amount of agency removed from the man who literally oversees every decision this organization makes and has made over these past 5 years is kind of shocking. You might as well have an AI run the team if the results since Brady left were so unavoidable. What is the point of employing this guy if there was absolutely nothing to be done but get progressively worse over the last 4 years?

I fully expect them to to pick a QB that doesn't turn out this draft and then hear the excuses "Well, the consensus at the time was..." "No one could blame him because everyone else would've made that decision..." No, it's his job to make the right decisions that lead to results. That's why he gets paid $25 million a year and why he has carte blanche with his staff. Yet, somehow he's not accountable for all of the decisions that's led to a degradation in the team ever since he's been without Brady? To the BB defenders, what exactly should he be held responsible for - like what would you actually say is his fault? Because I've seen everything from the Patricia/Judge hiring to the Tyquan Thornton pick contextualized in this thread and I don't understand what value we think BB is bringing to the table if he's not actually culpable for his decisions.
Well, for one, it's the last 2 years that the team has missed the playoffs, and 2020 was a don't-care CoVid season. So it's really the poor performance in 2022/23 seasons that we care about.

Yes, Belichick made the decisions that caused the roster to be what it is today, which is really bad when it comes to the offense. He picked Mac, a pick he could have used to pick a player in a different position. Or he could have traded it. That's all on Bill. And, yes, some GMs have gotten fired for drafting a bad QB in the first round. Somehow, though, the Jets GM gets a pass for drafting Zach Wilson (who's objectively worse than Mac), and the 49'ers drafted Trey Lance (who was traded for nothing). So, some us look at Bill's past and see the guy that at one time built a championship team and believe he can do it again. That doesn't mean he's not culpable for the bad decisions he made on recent draft days. Just that retaining Bill may be the best bet to improve.

Yes, hiring a worse GM is a risk, and it's also a valid argument for not firing Bill. Teams don't get better firing GMs every 2 seasons that their team misses the playoffs. John Lynch won all of 10 games his first 2 seasons in San Francisco. The Rams GM missed the playoffs entirely his first 5 seasons running the team. Bills record under Beane was decidedly mediocre until Josh Allen came around.
 

Cellar-Door

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The amount of agency removed from the man who literally oversees every decision this organization makes and has made over these past 5 years is kind of shocking. You might as well have an AI run the team if the results since Brady left were so unavoidable. What is the point of employing this guy if there was absolutely nothing to be done but get progressively worse over the last 4 years?

I fully expect them to to pick a QB that doesn't turn out this draft and then hear the excuses "Well, the consensus at the time was..." "No one could blame him because everyone else would've made that decision..." No, it's his job to make the right decisions that lead to results. That's why he gets paid $25 million a year and why he has carte blanche with his staff. Yet, somehow he's not accountable for all of the decisions that's led to a degradation in the team ever since he's been without Brady? To the BB defenders, what exactly should he be held responsible for - like what would you actually say is his fault? Because I've seen everything from the Patricia/Judge hiring to the Tyquan Thornton pick contextualized in this thread and I don't understand what value we think BB is bringing to the table if he's not actually culpable for his decisions.
Has anyone said he's not? I certainly haven't. I've noted that there are things he's done well and things he's done poorly. Some of the results have been because of his failures, some have been bad luck. I am looking at process and decisions based on whether they were well supported and whether you would expect a new GM/Coach to generally do better or worse than Bill. The whole point of making forward looking decisions is to determine what things did and didn't work, why the decisions were made, what the other options are, how the success or failure rates of those decisions compare with other people in the area, etc.
 

johnmd20

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Has anyone said he's not? I certainly haven't. I've noted that there are things he's done well and things he's done poorly. Some of the results have been because of his failures, some have been bad luck. I am looking at process and decisions based on whether they were well supported and whether you would expect a new GM/Coach to generally do better or worse than Bill. The whole point of making forward looking decisions is to determine what things did and didn't work, why the decisions were made, what the other options are, how the success or failure rates of those decisions compare with other people in the area, etc.
“There’s no medals for trying. This isn’t like eighth grade where everybody gets a trophy. We are in a professional sport, and it is competitive to win. That’s what we do.”

I'll let you guess who said that. I do love that you're now all about some random application of process, as if that absolves all involved for the actual results. Because it is impossible to defend the results. And the best part is that the process sucks on offense, too. If the process was sound, it wouldn't be the worst offense in the league. Nobody is that unlucky.

Another quote by that same guy. "You either get the job done or you don't." I don't see a lot of comments about how process supersedes the results on the field.

But I'm drunk.
 

ManicCompression

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Has anyone said he's not? I certainly haven't. I've noted that there are things he's done well and things he's done poorly. Some of the results have been because of his failures, some have been bad luck. I am looking at process and decisions based on whether they were well supported and whether you would expect a new GM/Coach to generally do better or worse than Bill. The whole point of making forward looking decisions is to determine what things did and didn't work, why the decisions were made, what the other options are, how the success or failure rates of those decisions compare with other people in the area, etc.
Some of your analysis seems to boil down to, "Everyone else would make the same decision" or "The chalk at the time was" or "Every other team has these issues..." etc.

If I was the CEO of a large company during Covid, and I made a bunch of large sweeping decisions based on the fact that money was cheap at the time, and then those decisions came back to bite me in the ass when interest rates got higher, forcing me to layoff a bunch of my staff and tank the stock, "Everyone else was doing the same thing" is not a reasonable excuse for my failure. It would be my job to correctly navigate those challenges and not fall into the same trap as everyone else. That's what a good CEO is supposed to do.

So "Everyone else would've taken Mac" - even posters on this board - doesn't contextualize away Bill's responsibility in that decision, it just makes me wonder why the guy who goes against the grain on so many decisions went with the grain on this one and what he saw in a guy who regressed so much from his rookie year to his third year. Rinse repeat with all of the other bad decisions he's made personnel wise, coaching staff, etc.

Like I get the argument of "All this shit went wrong, but that matters less to me than what I think Bill can get right." That scans to me and I can see it. What I don't follow is when posters have legitimate criticisms of the guy and they weigh them more heavily than you do, and then you hand wave these legitimate criticisms away with fairly circular arguments like "Oh, it was just bad luck" or "Every team does this." If BB is the best to ever do this and so obviously better than anyone else, why is he falling into the same patterns as every other franchise?
 

Cellar-Door

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Some of your analysis seems to boil down to, "Everyone else would make the same decision" or "The chalk at the time was" or "Every other team has these issues..." etc.

If I was the CEO of a large company during Covid, and I made a bunch of large sweeping decisions based on the fact that money was cheap at the time, and then those decisions came back to bite me in the ass when interest rates got higher, forcing me to layoff a bunch of my staff and tank the stock, "Everyone else was doing the same thing" is not a reasonable excuse for my failure. It would be my job to correctly navigate those challenges and not fall into the same trap as everyone else. That's what a good CEO is supposed to do.

So "Everyone else would've taken Mac" - even posters on this board - doesn't contextualize away Bill's responsibility in that decision, it just makes me wonder why the guy who goes against the grain on so many decisions went with the grain on this one and what he saw in a guy who regressed so much from his rookie year to his third year. Rinse repeat with all of the other bad decisions he's made personnel wise, coaching staff, etc.

Like I get the argument of "All this shit went wrong, but that matters less to me than what I think Bill can get right." That scans to me and I can see it. What I don't follow is when posters have legitimate criticisms of the guy and they weigh them more heavily than you do, and then you hand wave these legitimate criticisms away with fairly circular arguments like "Oh, it was just bad luck" or "Every team does this." If BB is the best to ever do this and so obviously better than anyone else, why is he falling into the same patterns as every other franchise?
I get that argument, my point when I say that is... there are things Bill does well, I have noted them many times. I've generally argued that Bill is an elite coach and a league average GM. And for some of these things, like Mac (who I was not a big fan of coming into the draft as my posts show), that's one where you need a QB, I do think every GM takes Mac there, because the reward upside is so high, and the other options are so bad, and honestly I think with Mac, it's hard to parse responsibility, because at some point it comes down to the player. But for Mac, I don't think there really even is anything to go with there. Same way while I think Joe Douglas made a mistake taking Zach Wilson #2 (I would have taken Fields) I recognize that he had to take a QB there, and it turned out that it was a 1 QB draft, but he still made the right choice taking a QB, now with that we can parse why he took Wilson over Fields, what that says for future picks, but with Mac.... he was what was there, so there is less to parse, because Bill wasn't sitting at 15 with a choice between multiple potential NFL QBs, he was sitting at 15 with the choice between a guy who had the skills to maybe be a good NFL QB, and going into the season with Cam Newton. It was a good choice, the team was better with Mac (and all the FA signigns than with Cam and made the playoffs). Now I DO think there is plenty to be argued about Patricia... I get why he did it, I also think it was a bad move, and that it showed some real concerns that he was not as willing to go outside his comfort zone.

I think I've been pretty consistent that I think there is a reasonable case either way for letting Bill go. What I do push back on is the arguments that basically come down to "well this failed, therefore it was a bad decision at the time." because that's not how anything works, but particularly things like sports and drafting where uncertainty is high. So the idea that people say things like "they've been terrible at drafting for 10 years..." well that's obviously untrue, we can look at the team, we can look at other teams, we can look at the average return on draft picks and say... no, they had some very bad drafts in the last 10 years, but overall, about average".

As to the idea of "every other team does, or every team would".... that's not about saying Bill didn't make mistakes, it's about contextualizing whether it was a mistake that a different GM is unlikely to make going forward on average, which is about the sweeping "Bill is bad At....." statements.
 
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