This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

[Dewey's 'stache]

This is a THANK YOU to SOSH for being a place for reasonable discourse and typically reasonably backed up statements (with data). (Game threads being the exception of course)
Why I am taking this moment? I just turned on WEEI for the first time in years. I live in Omaha NE and I only listen to games on WEEI for that.
Today I thought “while I’m out shoveling snow, I’ll listen to EEI and see what is the latest.
What a bunch of hacks! Totally going nuts about Vrabel being available, “Kraft must act now” absolutely railing Belichick “Belichick has forgotten more about football than the available coaches and By that I mean he has actually forgotten it”.
Wow, while Bill has his warts, show the guy at least a measure of respect for what the last 24 years have been. I know folks are frustrated with the state of the team and much of it falls on Bill, but show some professionalism especially if you have the privilege of expressing your opinions to a wide audience.

 

[joe dokes]

View: https://twitter.com/marinonfl/status/1744785587398164583?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
Tapped in with a source just now following Mike Vrabel’s firing in Tennessee.

The expectation is that he will be the lead candidate for the New England job, operating under the assumption that the job is open. Bill Belichick will not be returning to coach the Patriots.

I’m also told that the Atlanta Falcons are planning a heavy pursuit for Belichick. That is who they want — their lead target at this point.

Initial interest was surface level. Atlanta had early conversations about his fit with the team. Those conversations were positive for Belichick.

Not saying it didn't happen, but what sort of conversations could the Falcons have with a coach under contract with another team?

 

[cshea]

Don’t think they talked to Bill but probably did some preliminary background work.

 

[DJnVa]

Not saying it didn't happen, but what sort of conversations could the Falcons have with a coach under contract with another team?

I assume that's internal conversations.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Not saying it didn't happen, but what sort of conversations could the Falcons have with a coach under contract with another team?

Back channel conversations happen all the time.

 

[joe dokes]

I assume that's internal conversations.

On 2nd/3rd readings, I think that's probably it.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I assume that's internal conversations.

yeah I read that as they got together with their GM and search comittee and said "what do we think about Bill, lets reach out to some people get an idea how he works, what he brings, how he'd fit" etc.

 

[Harry Hooper]

The only problem with this is that if BB turns the team around and wins, say, 10 games in 2024, does anyone believe he's going to just retire and leave Shula's record on the table?

And FTR, if he does that, would anyone (the fans, Kraft, etc) want him to do so?

You could be right about that. We know how dearly BB wanted that 3rd consecutive SB win as a legacy piece. Maybe the original grand plan upon Brady's departure had a bunch more wins factored in before the 2024 season arrived.

Someone here on SoSH had posted previously that in the locker room and other team-only areas of Gillette that BB has installed mini-shrines to virtues that he wants the current players to follow, and these feature former players as exemplars with Mayo being one of the most common names that shows up.

 

[astrozombie]

BB ended the season before last with 298 wins. If he wanted to beat Shula's record of 328 wins and then hand over the keys to someone else in 2025, he would have need 31 wins over this past season and next season to do it (I made up 16 and 15 wins since a perfect season of 17 wins in one or both of those seasons seemed unlikely). My point was that even prior to this past disaster of a season, BB having 2 phenomenal seasons to beat Shula's record in time to turn over the keys in 2025 seemed like a stretch. And I imagine that BB wants that record, even if Reid or someone else ultimately overtakes it.

 

[sezwho]

While an internal forecast of four wins is unrealistic, posters here recognized various roster shortcomings before FA and the draft, several of which went unaddressed including OT/WR. Picking up scraps from other teams and investing late round picks was a disastrous approach. I'm concerned BB and company were caught off guard by how badly this team wound up being when it was easily recognized by others outside the organization. Whatever the root cause may be (BB wanting to coach guys he likes, the game passing him by, etc.) there is some level of disconnect within player evaluation, particularly on offense, that needs to be rectified ASAP.

Yes, great post!

Even Patriots fan and employee Paul Perillo famously had a sub .500 ceiling.

I go back to a WR draft evaluation process that sees N’Keal as a first rounder and Pop as a sixth.

Its not the team personnel or scouts, they are implementing Bills plan and evaluating to his criteria, it’s the criteria itself that’s broken.

 

[Kliq]

Not sure I agree with this. Atlanta has the 8th pick in the upcoming draft. Realistically, that team is really, really close to being a contender given some of the pieces they have on both sides of the ball. They need a QB first and foremost, but they have the draft spot to become a potential trade partner to move up. Besides that, I think there really only a legit edge rusher and maybe a corner away from being an excellent defense. They also have about 40mil in cap space next year, and play in a god awful division that doesn't appear to be getting any better.

So they need a QB and an edge rusher, the two most important positions to fill? I watched a decent amount of them this year and was not impressed at all, I just don't see it as an attractive place.

 

[sezwho]

So they need a QB and an edge rusher, the two most important positions to fill? I watched a decent amount of them this year and was not impressed at all, I just don't see it as an attractive place.

Wouldn’t it be better to be able to pick the qb? Also, edge rusher is the easiest hole to plug with money, no? They just basically see-ball-get-ball and barely even need a context to operate in. Your specific scheme either adds some edge setting responsibilities or not.

Don’t think it’s happening either, just not sure that’s why.

 

[astrozombie]

It's not the regular season win total, it's the total wins total (regular season and playoffs) that folks are talking about.

Fair

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I mean, it is a bit eyebrow raising to hear people gush over the skill talent on Atlanta then note they ‘just need a QB.’ Yeah, them and several other franchises who have been hunting for decades (Cleveland, Chicago, as examples).

 

[Red Averages]

I mean, it is a bit eyebrow raising to hear people gush over the skill talent on Atlanta then note they ‘just need a QB.’ Yeah, them and several other franchises who have been hunting for decades (Cleveland, Chicago, as examples).

They should trade for Fields. Get a good defense together with a lot of young speed/talent on offense between Fields, Bijan, London, Pitts.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Is Ridder considered a bust already, after 19 games? Honest question.

 

[Manuel Aristides]

Several excellent decisions? Only in hindsight. Were they lauded as how you go about building an offense? Look at the decisions on face value. The fact that some of these decisions worked out didn’t make them good. Why is that hard?

You're arguing that perception of action is more important than the consequence of the action, one of the weirdest arguments I've ever seen on any topic anywhere. You might be trying to say that process is more important than results, but you're going to have to be a little more specific than "most of the league disagreed."

I guess you're still mad at Belichick for picking Brady at 199? On face value, they had a franchise quarterback on the roster and other needs.

 

[Ed Hillel]

View: https://twitter.com/marinonfl/status/1744785587398164583?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
Tapped in with a source just now following Mike Vrabel’s firing in Tennessee.

The expectation is that he will be the lead candidate for the New England job, operating under the assumption that the job is open. Bill Belichick will not be returning to coach the Patriots.

I’m also told that the Atlanta Falcons are planning a heavy pursuit for Belichick. That is who they want — their lead target at this point.

Initial interest was surface level. Atlanta had early conversations about his fit with the team. Those conversations were positive for Belichick.

The idea this guy is scooping all the local reporters seems a bit of a stretch.

 

[sezwho]

They should trade for Fields. Get a good defense together with a lot of young speed/talent on offense between Fields, Bijan, London, Pitts.

I think the Pats should consider this as well, based solely on qb bust rates in the draft.

Im not using the first, which if that disqualifies me then fine, but the top of the draft should definitely address the future of LT and WR1.

Sign Onwenu and start filling gaps everywhere else.

 

[DJnVa]

Is Ridder considered a bust already, after 19 games? Honest question.

He was a 3rd rounder, so I think he was more of a lottery ticket way to potentially solve their QB issues. But now they've kicked the can down the road a few seasons and likely should be looking for someone early.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

You're arguing that perception of action is more important than the consequence of the action, one of the weirdest arguments I've ever seen on any topic anywhere. You might be trying to say that process is more important than results, but you're going to have to be a little more specific than "most of the league disagreed."

I guess you're still mad at Belichick for picking Brady at 199? On face value, they had a franchise quarterback on the roster and other needs.

I’ve been saying the process is bad. And it has been bad. The fact it worked a couple times still makes it bad. In BB we trust right? What the hell was that move, hope it works out. This is coming from someone who continually drank the kool-aid, trying to convince myself Devante Parker and JJSS were super sly pickups by BB who was going to show the NFL how these guys should be used.

Then I was made to watch the last two years. Then the cracks started to show.

As an aside, adding crap like, guess you’re still mad at Bill blah blah blah really takes away from the conversation. Stop it.

 

[Manuel Aristides]

I’ve been saying the process is bad. And it has been bad. The fact it worked a couple times still makes it bad. In BB we trust right? What the hell was that move, hope it works out. This is coming from someone who continually drank the kool-aid, trying to convince myself Devante Parker and JJSS were super sly pickups by BB who was going to show the NFL how these guys should be used.

Then I was made to watch the last two years. Then the cracks started to show.

As an aside, adding crap like, guess you’re still mad at Bill blah blah blah really takes away from the conversation. Stop it.

It's not an attack. It's a continuation of my point. How can the process be uniformly bad when it worked so many times? Can you expalin how my comment about Brady is different than you saying the Gronk pick was bad process?

Edit: I think that saying "it worked a couple times" is disingenuous. They won six superbowls.

 

[tims4wins]

While an internal forecast of four wins is unrealistic, posters here recognized various roster shortcomings before FA and the draft, several of which went unaddressed including OT/WR. Picking up scraps from other teams and investing late round picks was a disastrous approach. I'm concerned BB and company were caught off guard by how badly this team wound up being when it was easily recognized by others outside the organization. Whatever the root cause may be (BB wanting to coach guys he likes, the game passing him by, etc.) there is some level of disconnect within player evaluation, particularly on offense, that needs to be rectified ASAP.

Their Vegas O/U was 6.5, right? Obviously Vegas is wrong all the time about things. But the national perception of the Patriots was that they would be a sub-.500 team, and then they went out and performed worse than expectations. If they were 7-10 this year would the calculus have changed? It still would have meant that no one thought they'd be good, and then they went out and, lo and behold, weren't good!

 

[8slim]

Curran was on WEEI this morning and seemed to confirm something I speculated on before: the "grand plan" had been for BB to use the salary cap room to make one more run in 2024 before turning the keys over to Mayo for 2025. Curran said no one at Foxborough anticipated 4 wins in 2023, though, so that's prompted a whole reexamining of what's the best path forward.

Agree with others that no one in the front office anticipating a bad season is distressing. I don’t know anything, and I’m pretty sure I predicted 7 wins in the SoSH pre-season poll. And I know I wondered where the offense would come from.

Obviously 7 is better than 4, and I never expected a BB-coached team to win just 4 freakin’ games. But there were loads of signs that this team wasn’t good enough.

I have to think that this underperformance has been a large part of what’s driving the Kraft’s consideration of moving on from Bill. It may be the first time he totally whiffed on the expectations he shared with them. And that’s gotta be troubling.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

It's not an attack. It's a continuation of my point. How can the process be uniformly bad when it worked so many times? Can you expalin how my comment about Brady is different than you saying the Gronk pick was bad process?

You want me to compare the difference between a 6th round QB and a 2nd round TE that needed spinal surgery? You need me to do that?

 

[cornwalls@6]

I’ve been saying the process is bad. And it has been bad. The fact it worked a couple times still makes it bad. In BB we trust right? What the hell was that move, hope it works out. This is coming from someone who continually drank the kool-aid, trying to convince myself Devante Parker and JJSS were super sly pickups by BB who was going to show the NFL how these guys should be used.

Then I was made to watch the last two years. Then the cracks started to show.

As an aside, adding crap like, guess you’re still mad at Bill blah blah blah really takes away from the conversation. Stop it.

"It worked a couple of times"?? C'mon man, really?

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Is Ridder considered a bust already, after 19 games? Honest question.

Ryland is considered a bust after 17.

 

[sezwho]

Ryland is considered a bust after 17.

It’s going to take some brass ones to put him back out there though, he has been appallingly bad.

What is common practice for a young draft asset kicker with the yips? He’s sure going to have to win the job in camp.

 

[Manuel Aristides]

You want me to compare the difference between a 6th round QB and a 2nd round TE that needed spinal surgery? You need me to do that?

Bad process is bad process at all levels, but fine. What's the difference between a 6th round QB and a 7th round QB (Edelman)?

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

It’s going to take some brass ones to put him back out there though, he has been appallingly bad.

What is common practice for a young draft asset kicker with the yips? He’s sure going to have to win the job in camp.

Winning the job in camp is the answer. A full offseason, and hopefully, new ST coaches. He has a short memory, as we saw in Denver, which is huge for a kicker.

EDIT - let me rephrase that. At times, I think he was inside his head way too much (armchair shrink analysis). But the Denver game showed that he could get his head right. Whether it was "no one is expecting me to make this, so I have nothing to lose" or the length of the kick made him dial into mechanics... I don't know.

 

[lexrageorge]

Several excellent decisions? Only in hindsight. Were they lauded as how you go about building an offense? Look at the decisions on face value. The fact that some of these decisions worked out didn’t make them good. Why is that hard?

There is no universe in which drafting Gronk was a bad move or indicative of a bad process.

 

[Dogman]

Vinatieri was 27-35 (77%) in his first season with NE.
Gost was 20-26 (76%) in his first season.
Ryland was 16-25 (64%) on his first season.

Couple additional misses on the season for him. And it helped us with draft position is the way I look at it. Camp competition is where I am at with him.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Vinatieri was 27-35 (77%) in his first season with NE.
Gost was 20-26 (76%) in his first season.
Ryland was 16-25 (64%) on his first season.

Couple additional misses on the season for him. And it helped us with draft position is the way I look at it. Camp competition is where I am at with him.

Yeah, but did Ryland track down Herschel Walker??? Hmmm???

 

[Dogman]

Of course not. Only God, Bo Jackson, or Adam could do that.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Of course not. Only God, Bo Jackson, or Adam could do that.

Sorry, the judges were looking for God, Raphael Warnock, and Adam

 

[Dogman]

Dammit, missed opportunity.

 

[BusRaker]

Yeah, but did Ryland track down Herschel Walker??? Hmmm???

It's about time someone read my sig!

What if Kraft and Belichick never come out and say BB is coming back this year and just go about business as normal as he is "under contract"? What will the talking heads do?

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

"It worked a couple of times"?? C'mon man, really?

Yes. How is this an argument? It’s been 20 years. You want to add up successes and failures and check the hit rate? It’s been done to death here.

Bad process is bad process at all levels, but fine. What's the difference between a 6th round QB and a 7th round QB (Edelman)?

I legitimately lost your point. This is what moving goalposts looks like by the way.

There is no universe in which drafting Gronk was a bad move or indicative of a bad process.

The one universe where he got injured in the pre season. Pats never recovered from that. Brady goes on to baseball.

 

[tims4wins]

Vinatieri was 27-35 (77%) in his first season with NE.
Gost was 20-26 (76%) in his first season.
Ryland was 16-25 (64%) on his first season.

Couple additional misses on the season for him. And it helped us with draft position is the way I look at it. Camp competition is where I am at with him.

One of these things is not like the others.

1996 NFL league-wide: 80.0%
2006 NFL league-wide: 81.4%
2023 NFL league-wide: 85.9%

AV 1996: 77.1%, or 96.4 % of league average
Gost 2006: 76.9%, or 94.5% of league average
Ryland: 64.0%, or 74.5% of league average

 

[Manuel Aristides]

I legitimately lost your point. This is what moving goalposts looks like by the way.

I haven't moved the goal posts. My point is that the process is not unsound if it has produced several excellent results. You had dismissed the excellent results I listed (they were Moss, Welker, Gronk, Hernandez and Edelman. Not meant to be categorical, just the top of my head "highly successful offensive acquisitions.") You dismissed them by saying, essentially, that those were bad process, (I think because they were not "lauded as how to build an offense" if I understand you right.) I found that to be an odd yardstick to judge by, and feel that the same criticism ("not lauded") you are lobbing at my examples of success can easily be applied to the drafting of supremely underwhelming at the time draft pick Tom Brady. I thought that would be a good example of why your yardstick was maybe a bad one, as compared to, say, games won, or superbowls won, and was asking you to either:

A- explain the difference between the successful offensive players I listed, which you dismissed as being lucky in spite of bad process, and the decision to draft Tom Brady, or

B- Agree that they are the same, and that drafting Tom Brady was also bad process.

[edit: in case it remains unclear, the question I asked in my last post is "If Edelman in the 7th (Or Gronk in the 2nd) was bad process that got lucky, is the same true of drafting Brady in the 6th?"]

Your response was to say that comparing the drafting of Brady to Gronk was ridiculous and then lose track of things.

You seem to think everything that Belichick succeeded on was in spite of himself. I couldn't disagree more. I'm fine to leave it there, and wouldn't have replied at all to this last post except that I don't appreciate you being rude and snarky after you admonished me for the same. Either it's polite discourse or it's not; I can do either but pick a lane.

 

[BaseballJones]

Forget going in the way back machine. Let's just look at the last six years. In order by wins:

12-4
11-5
10-7
8-9
7-9
4-13

52-47 (.525)
1 SB title
3 playoff appearances
3-2 in the playoffs

Now, obviously this is tilted towards the first two of these six years. But that's a really solid six-year run that any of us would take if we were to have them all over again.

On the whole, it's difficult to analyze the Pats' process because Tom Brady was the great equalizer. But BB built some great defenses during his tenure, and two of the Super Bowls were won on the back of the defense. The Pats also went 11-5 in 2008 without Brady, which shows that the team he had put together was an absolute juggernaut all the way around.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I haven't moved the goal posts. My point is that the process is not unsound if it has produced several excellent results. You had dismissed the excellent results I listed (they were Moss, Welker, Gronk, Hernandez and Edelman. Not meant to be categorical, just the top of my head "highly successful offensive acquisitions.") You dismissed them by saying, essentially, that those were bad process, (I think because they were not "lauded as how to build an offense" if I understand you right.) I found that to be an odd yardstick to judge by, and feel that the same criticism ("not lauded") you are lobbing at my examples of success can easily be applied to the drafting of supremely underwhelming at the time draft pick Tom Brady. I thought that would be a good example of why your yardstick was maybe a bad one, as compared to, say, games won, or superbowls won, and was asking you to either:

A- explain the difference between the successful offensive players I listed, which you dismissed as being lucky in spite of bad process, and the decision to draft Tom Brady, or

B- Agree that they are the same, and that drafting Tom Brady was also bad process.

[edit: in case it remains unclear, the question I asked in my last post is "If Edelman in the 7th (Or Gronk in the 2nd) was bad process that got lucky, is the same true of drafting Brady in the 6th?"]

Your response was to say that comparing the drafting of Brady to Gronk was ridiculous and then lose track of things.

You seem to think everything that Belichick succeeded on was in spite of himself. I couldn't disagree more. I'm fine to leave it there, and wouldn't have replied at all to this last post except that I don't appreciate you being rude and snarky after you admonished me for the same. Either it's polite discourse or it's not; I can do either but pick a lane.

I had to go back to my first post. I honestly lost track of where we started. The process is unsound if it continues to produce absolute dreck. Which it's done since Tom left. The guys they went after: Moss (washed up), Welker (who??), Gronkandez (unicorns), Edelman (7th round QB) you're really going to tell me thats sustainable? Because after the last two years I'm telling you it's not.

Drafting a QB in the 6th round has no bearing on this discussion at all. Like whatsoever.

Edit: really sorry to be that guy but I can't stop thinking about your "point." A process can't be considered unsound if it has produced excellent results. I beg you to reconsider this.

 

[BaseballJones]

In what way was 2021 "dreck"? They went 10-7 with a rookie QB, had the #6 scoring team in the league and allowed the 2nd fewest points in the NFL. No that wasn't up to the standards of the Brady era, but that's very very far from "dreck".

 

[lexrageorge]

I had to go back to my first post. I honestly lost track of where we started. The process is unsound if it continues to produce absolute drek. Which it's done since Tom left. The guys they went after: Moss (washed up), Welker (who??), Gronkandez (unicorns), Edelman (7th round QB) you're really going to tell me thats sustainable? Because after two years I'm telling you it's not.

Drafting a QB in the 6th round has no bearing on this discussion at all. Like whatsoever.

Yeah, OK Bill was lucky. So then is every single team in the league by that standard.

 

[E5 Yaz]

It's about time someone read my sig!

Never noticed it.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

In what way was 2021 "dreck"? They went 10-7 with a rookie QB, had the #6 scoring team in the league and allowed the 2nd fewest points in the NFL. No that wasn't up to the standards of the Brady era, but that's very very far from "dreck".

I'm talking about offense. Bill is the best defensive coach now and of all time. 2021 was a weird year. Post COVID and all. Not an excuse but still. I will concede that point.

 

[sezwho]

Forget going in the way back machine. Let's just look at the last six years. In order by wins:

12-4
11-5
10-7
8-9
7-9
4-13

52-47 (.525)
1 SB title
3 playoff appearances
3-2 in the playoffs

Now, obviously this is tilted towards the first two of these six years. But that's a really solid six-year run that any of us would take if we were to have them all over again.

On the whole, it's difficult to analyze the Pats' process because Tom Brady was the great equalizer. But BB built some great defenses during his tenure, and two of the Super Bowls were won on the back of the defense. The Pats also went 11-5 in 2008 without Brady, which shows that the team he had put together was an absolute juggernaut all the way around.

Absolutely. Anyone would take any period that has a SB (I was there for 1-15)...but do you not see that trend?

I saw the signs (Elliot/Rueben ~1:01)...

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJZSc9yo3_0

 

[BaseballJones]

Absolutely. Anyone would take any period that has a SB (I was there for 1-15)...but do you not see that trend?

The trend is: worse without the GOAT, but three middling seasons followed by a catastrophe.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Forget going in the way back machine. Let's just look at the last six years. In order by wins:

12-4
11-5
10-7
8-9
7-9
4-13

52-47 (.525)
1 SB title
3 playoff appearances
3-2 in the playoffs

Now, obviously this is tilted towards the first two of these six years. But that's a really solid six-year run that any of us would take if we were to have them all over again.

On the whole, it's difficult to analyze the Pats' process because Tom Brady was the great equalizer. But BB built some great defenses during his tenure, and two of the Super Bowls were won on the back of the defense. The Pats also went 11-5 in 2008 without Brady, which shows that the team he had put together was an absolute juggernaut all the way around.

Comparing years where BB had Tom Brady and every other year is just not an apples to apples comparison. We're not getting the Belichick of those first couple years and everybody knows it. The SB's and the 11-5 record you're talking about being built on the backs of great defenses came 15-20 years ago and in a way different era of football. Nobody is winning a Super Bowl with a team that relies on it's defense to win games for them.

 

[BaseballJones]

Comparing years where BB had Tom Brady and every other year is just not an apples to apples comparison. We're not getting the Belichick of those first couple years and everybody knows it. The SB's and the 11-5 record you're talking about being built on the backs of great defenses came 15-20 years ago and in a way different era of football. Nobody is winning a Super Bowl with a team that relies on it's defense to win games for them.

Maybe not. But we just saw a team with the number one defense in the nation win the college football championship in convincing style. And we’ve seen scoring decline in the NFL the past few years.

And the top five teams with a chance to win it all this year are these teams (and their scoring defense rank):

Baltimore - #1
San Francisco - #3
Dallas - #5
Buffalo - #4
Kansas City - #2