I think my biggest sense that he could be gone is from Lazar who keeps saying things like "whoever is in charge next year" instead of BB.
This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
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I’ll say it again, I am glad I am not the Krafts because the decision they have to make this offseason is huge. But what we saw yesterday was a 3 win team getting its doors blown off by a Chiefs team that isn’t nearly as good as the past few years, at home, in a game in which I don’t think the Chiefs even played particularly well. That anyone can decisively say that BB is the same coach who he was during the 20+ years that they dominated the league is ridiculous. Maybe he is, who knows, but (a) he’s responsible for the roster on offense and if he stays would be the guy the Pats would be trusting to fix it, (b) the team has looked like a poorly coached, mistake prone team for much of the last three seasons, and (c) the guy is 71 and it is a guarantee that at some point in time he won’t be able to do the job anymore, it’s not outlandish to think that time might be now.
I don’t really get how people can be so decisive one way or the other. I want BB to stay here and win more championships and pass Shula and everything, but how can you not have some doubt at this point that this is even possible?
I don’t really get how people can be so decisive one way or the other. I want BB to stay here and win more championships and pass Shula and everything, but how can you not have some doubt at this point that this is even possible?
The offense is league average with an average QB. The defense is top 5. The "low level of talent" on offense performs perfectly fine with average QB play the last two weeks. And that's when they're missing their best running back and their starting LG goes down early.
The "low level of talent on offense" was the point of my post.
I have doubt. My line in the sand is next season. He deserves a chance to recover from Mac and use the tons of cap space he built up for next season. He drafted Mac thinking he may be the answer, and if he wasn't, the contracts he's given out align to give him another shot at building a quick winner again this coming offseason. He's earned the right to see it through.
Read my first post.
When Zappe was playing OK, they had 10 points (and a missed FG). When he turned back into a pumpkin at half, the team cratered.
So, again, when we have even average QB play, the team is competitive with a playoff team.
I mean, this is why they didn’t go the extra mile for Hopkins, right? They didn’t want to be locked in to some contract for a guy who would play one year w Mac and then with either a rookie or a guy playing for the vet minimum when ideally they’d be rebuilding for the next guy. So they kept their options open.
Ok fair enough. I didn't take that from your other posts in this thread.
I didn't (and still don't) really have a problem with BB the coach. I don't think many do. But BB the GM is so bad he is requiring BB the coach to work miracles and, BB the coach can't do that any more for whatever reason. He is still a good coach, but he puts himself in a position where he has to be flawless and that just isn't happening any more. He put Mac on the roster. He put Zappe on the roster. He put Cam Newton on the roster. He actually cut Zappe and brought him back. I can't speak for others, but for myself the talent evaluation is so bad and the personnel moves so mercurial that I would rather take a shot with someone who could potentially build a solid roster and coach them at a good but not GOAT level and see how that does.
That's fair. I don't know if I've ever actually voiced it. I've railed against firing him this offseason and that's about it.
That's my stance. He's managed to construct a roster with a good defense and, if Mac turned into a top 10 QB type player, would be a playoff team. Mac didn't pan out, and many teams would be stuck in a really bad spot because of it. Look at the Jets. Stuck in a neverending suck cycle when the latest QB draft pick fails.
BB created a team where, if Mac panned put, we could go into his prime (this offseason) with the 3rd most cap and a top 5ish defense. If he failed, they can get a QB (draft, free agent), and surround that QB with players to help their success via free agency...and still have a top 5ish defense.
So, next season is my line in the sand. He's had a plan, he's stuck to it, and he's seeing it through. I believe if you hire someone to do a job, you either trust them or you don't. So, I trust whatever BB choose to do this offseason. If he wants to draft a tackle or a WR or trade down and collect picks and go after a Kirk Cousins...fine. It's his plan, I trust him. But, if after THIS rebuild, the team isnt trending in the right direction? I'm cool with letting BB walk.
BB the GM maximized the Brady window and rolled lots of dead money into the first year post Brady. We can all agree it was a good decision. When you have a window, you keep it open as long as possible.
He then drafted a promising first round QB that left all the fans very hopeful going into the future.
BB the GM left the team a HUGE out by crafting all contracts around his rookie QBs contract so, if Mac failed, we wouldn't be stuck in a Jets suck cycle for the next several decades.
I'm not in love with some of the options BB has gone for either. Some of his talent acquisitions haven't been great. But there's no doubt his ability to create windows for the team has been very good. I mean, this is the second time in a 4 year stretch that they have more cap space than almost any team so they can try to rebuild on the fly. That's awesome.
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I agree 100%. They just gotta nail this next QB move. Other than two games, I've been very pleased with how competitive they've been overall this year (especially considering their godawful record). People mock me for that and that's fine, but other than two games, they've been right there in all of them. You are what your record says you are, and they've LOST those games, and deserve every bit of their 3-11 record. But they're also not very far away from being good again. Add a QB and WR and they're right there, IMO. I definitely want BB back next year for one more try.
If I'm being honest with myself, the biggest concern I have about BB heading into this offseason isn't his ability to pick talent or whatever. Its that this is the first time in New England that his seat has ever actually been hot. We've spent decades acknowledging that one of the reasons for BB's success is that he can take chances that other GMs or coaches cant because he "will never be fired". Hell, the stuff I listed above - being able to structure and plan contracts for the future if things in the present don't work out - are things that basically only BB can do. Other GM's don't have the luxury of saying, "Alright, I'll give my first round QB a few years to prove himself, and if he isn't capable, we'll craft our contracts to make sure we're ready to compete on the fly in the next window".
But now that his seat is obviously hot, I do have concern that the human side of BB (I'm sure it exists) creeps in and he starts to make short-sighted decisions. Does a guy on the hot seat - only a few seasons removed from the all-time wins record - want to risk his job on a rookie QB if he can just sign Cousins and draft a WR or some line help? I've always felt comfortable that the decisions BB made for the team were the best for the longterm future of the franchise, but I'd be lying if I said a little doubt won't creep in this offseason with his moves.
Wouldn't that apply whether or not he is on the hot seat, due to his age? Either way he's only likely to coach a handful more years. Logic says he would want to maximize those years, as opposed to just laying the groundwork for 2027 or something.
Yeah, thats fair. I guess I always assumed that, if things were going well, BB would continue to focus on the growth of the organization he's basically built for 25 years. But you're right. That's not a certainty by any stretch.
I think it’s fair to have concern, though I think BB cares about leaving the franchise in as good of a spot as he can when he retires. It’s not just about getting that record to the exclusion of the franchise’s state, and I suspect he’s aware enough to know that it would be held against him in terms of his legacy to an extent if he over leveraged the cap and trades away a bunch of picks to maximize the next 2-3 year window.
This is where I am...
You're not going to find a better coach (available or otherwise) than BB.
Inject the franchise with 'personnel leadership' (bring back Pioli and-or Lombardi back) and add some talent and speed on the offensive-side of the ball. This also includes adding / solidifying the OL so they can better pass-protect for the next QB.
Accepting this as true, BB's decisions regarding the QB position are also questionable.
I don't have a strong opinion on whether BB should stay or go. Yes he's earned the right - heck, he's probably "earned the right" to coach the team for a decade of bottom feeding given the amount of success he has brought. But that isn't how these decisions get made. What would be wrong (and unconscionable) is to publicly scapegoat him if they are moving on.
Maybe not in 2024, but I don't think you can reasonably say that he's the best option for the next, say, 5 years, and once that is decided there's an argument for making a move immediately.
See I don't get this. BB isn't relinquishing control over personnel, you can bring in whoever, if BB is still here when the draft happens he's making the picks. I can see having concern about BB's ability to pick talent, particularly on offense, given the last few years. That's the strongest argument IMO for making a change now with what is looking like a Top 3 pick and a bunch of massive holes on offense.
If you are riding or dying with Belichick the coach you are also riding or dying with him as the GM and entrusting him with the highest draft pick the franchise has had in almost 35 years.
We all agree Mike McDaniel has done a pretty good job in Miami, right? If Ben Johnson is the next McDaniel, sign me up for a year or two of growing pains.
I agree. I think the best they can do from this perspective is bring in someone like Dimitroff. Someone who has actually been a successful GM elsewhere. BB will still get the final say, but having that proven voice would help IMO.
This team would be “league average with an average QB” seems like the same kind of thinking that led us to believe that the problem last year was just Patricia / Judge, and then after that, the OL at the beginning of this year. Now, we just change the QB and everything is fine. I’d like to believe it, but it feels like the problems could be deeper than that, no?
Depends how much recency bias you want to apply to Bill's performance as GM.
I think the suggestion above is to basically tell Bill that he can remain in charge of both shopping and bundling the groceries, but he needs to bring in some experienced talent to help him on his shopping sprees. Somebody who can actually go to Bill and say "pick this guy" or "you're wrong about this player". Of course, we don't really have much insight into the inner workings of the bowels of Gillette Stadium, so maybe those people and that structure exists already. Or maybe Bill just isn't interested in such an arrangement.
I don't think there's any doubt that the WR and OL need serious upgrading. At the same time, finding those players becomes a lot easier if the QB problem is solved. I also don't believe either Kraft or Bill are simply looking for league average play at QB, no matter what the out-of-context, chest-puffing quotes by random assistants from a few years back indicate.
I think based on what we've been told, and specifically I am thinking about the first Do Your Job, Bill does value disagreement and different perspectives, at least that's what the assistants featured in that video said. But (a) that's almost 10 years ago now, it is possible that as he's gotten older this has been less and less true, and (b) if that's the way it has been working already, it hasn't resulted in good decisions on the offensive side of the roster, at least not post-Brady.
I'm not advocating for getting rid of Bill, I'm honestly torn, I just think if you want him to stay you have to accept he's going to pick the players and at 71 years old isn't likely to have a hugely different philosophy than he has had over the years. I think he probably retires or forces the Krafts to fire him before he relinquishes control over building the roster. So I am just not sure how bringing in someone from the outside changes things all that much.
I think this offense can be average when everything goes perfect which is the case for most low level talent offenses. The skill position players have zero room for error and the QB has zero room for error because they have zero explosion. Once a drive goes off script they are forced to punt. If Zappe has time and makes the correct read and the WR runs the correct route and makes a contested catch they can sometimes come away with points. That is how low level offenses operate and 25% of the time or so the suns align and they look competitive. That is why they are low level, an average QB even an above average QB is not going to elevate this offense to league average because the line is still going to struggle from time to time, the WRs are still going to run wrong routes/drop passes and even when they make a catch there is no YAC. If you watch a league average passing offense like Saints, Bucs, Seahawks, Colts, they all have WRs that can dominate 1V1 matchups consistently, DK, Olave, Evans, Pittman. NE doesn't have anyone close to those players, not even within a tier or two of those types of talents. A league average offense needs someone that can win 1-1 when needed. NE simply doesn't have that.
I feel you, but after what this guy has done in the league...he can't possibly give a rat's ass about a hot seat. He's emeritus. He's like already in the HOF, already has more rings than anyone else. He's like that 70yo granddad at the little league games who says out loud "that pitcher couldn't find the plate with a map and Google" without considering that the kid's parents are probably within earshot. One might think that he doesn't have his fastball anymore, but he won't make decisions out of fear.
Based on the number of folks who want to whack the guy who won his sixth super bowl in Feb 2019, I'd say that there is an awful lot of recency bias.
McDaniel has looked good but how much of his success is due to having an arsenal of offensive talent?
the success rate for top coordinators becoming good coaches is extremely low. Even if McDaniel continues to succeed and can actually coach Miami to a title, he’d be an exception (like McVey was)
if Ben Johnson + good defensive coordinator + good GM + arsenal of weapons and franchise QB can be found, that sounds like a shot worth taking
but the list of failed coordinators is a mile long. How is Ben Johnson any different than say Charlie Weis, Josh McDaniels, Bill O’Brien? Or going outside of New England, how is Johnson different than Norv Turner, Ben McAdoo, Marty Mornhigweg, Nathaniel Hackett, Scott Linehan, Brad Childress and a host of others.
I think when it comes to OC becoming coaches, they really only thrive as head coaches if they either inherit a talent laden team which needs an offensive spark or get given elite offensive talent. Sirriani and Shanahan look great when they have premium talent to work with. That’s why they got head coaching gigs in the first place. I’m not sure if either of those guys (or McDaniel) would succeed in a talent starved situation. I think Pats fans know better than anyone other than Falcons fans that Shanahan’s actual in game coaching strategy can be questionable given the focus of big plays his offense relies upon.
If the Pats go for an unknown like Johnson, they need to absolutely nail the GM, QB and defensive coordinator spot (which I doubt would be Mayo or Steve B) because the only thing Johnson has proven is that he can run a good offense with a top 5 OL, an elite WR, dynamic RB and good QB. And even then, Lions fans seem to have issues with his playcalling at times. It’s a lot of moving pieces Kraft will have to find to set up a Johnson type for success.
Josh McDaniels looked great with Brady (and I think he’s a very good offensive mind). His in game decision making as HC when he didn’t have premium talent is…questionable at best. Kevin O’Connell is a bright offensive mind but he hasn’t exactly been able to keep Minnesota’s offense afloat without Cousins.
most offenses are going to be “league average” when they have bad QB and WR. Henry is an above average (not top tier) weapon at TE. Stevenson/Elliott are a little above average albeit definitely not game breakers. Both tackles are above average.
if you brought back this entire group healthy and put (pure hypothetical) Cousins and Higgins on the offense, it’s an above average unit. Not a top offense. But better than average.
All completely fair. You don’t know unless you try, obviously. It feels like the Pats have a path to significantly upgrading their offensive personnel but obviously it requires a successful draft and FA period.
edit @NextBigThing8184 re Ben Johnson
edit @NextBigThing8184 re Ben Johnson
This is exactly my thinking. I don't have much to add that you didn't say, but I think this coupled with the high degree of risk. If you walk from BB that you're unlikely to get the perfect guy right afterwards is why it really makes sense to see the plan through.
I dont think anyone is saying things would be "fine" in an abstract sense. Just "league average." And this year, league average would be fighting for a playoff spot rather than a top-3 draft pick. I like SuperBowls best. But, like most unprecedented things, the 20-year run of nearly-guaranteed deep playoff runs is unlikely to happen again. I dont like to use personally demeaning fan descriptions like like "spoiled" or "entitled." But I do think that many Patriots fans' perspectives on "success" have been knocked off-kilter as a result of that unprecedented run.
Yeah that’s fair. Another aspect of this is the idea that just finding an average or better QB won’t be that difficult, even with a top pick. It seems like it will be; and finding a good supporting cast of offensive talent is no gimme either.
Right. The KC D is supposed to be pretty good right? Didn’t look so good against Bailey freakin Zappe in the first half.
That said the D is void of playmakers. Hopefully Judon and Gonzalez are the missing pieces. But to me it’s more coaching than talent (and perhaps a smidge of opposing offenses not taking chances since they know the Pats offense sucks and needs short fields to score).
I'm in general agreement with KFP here and I've got to say it's refreshing to read a page of posts (in both directions) that are measured and thoughtful rather than some of the reactions we've had recently.
I am also (clearly) on the don't-fire-Bill side, but not because I expect him to turn the Pats back into a SB winning team. That's unlikely. It's just that it's also unlikely that anyone else does it and I see real value in (if he can pull it off) him steading the ship, having the Pats be competitive again, and at some point handing over the franchise to the next generation in an orderly fashion. Much like Liverpool FC in the 1970s and 1980s and hopefully not like Manchester United post Alec Ferguson.
And if the 5%/10%/whatever% chance that he does win it again comes to pass in the next couple of years....well wouldn't that be grand?
I am also (clearly) on the don't-fire-Bill side, but not because I expect him to turn the Pats back into a SB winning team. That's unlikely. It's just that it's also unlikely that anyone else does it and I see real value in (if he can pull it off) him steading the ship, having the Pats be competitive again, and at some point handing over the franchise to the next generation in an orderly fashion. Much like Liverpool FC in the 1970s and 1980s and hopefully not like Manchester United post Alec Ferguson.
And if the 5%/10%/whatever% chance that he does win it again comes to pass in the next couple of years....well wouldn't that be grand?
Run defense. Overall, they are slightly better than league average. Holding the Chiefs offense to 21 points to go along with 4 punts and 2 picks is a good day when the offense gives you nothing for half the game.
I agree that the difficulty in finding that "average" QB (obviously aiming higher) is underappreciated. The vast number of high-ish drafted failures and low-ish drafted successes over the last 50 years make it realy difficult to forecast anything until they actually play.
Relatedly, I can't even pretend to know where the line is between talent and coaching 99% of the time.
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I believe Zappe was 14-14 on the 2 drives--the missed FG drive, then the TD drive. The other 10 drives outside the last of the half and last of the game he was 9-17. Weird.
My problem is with BB the OFFENSIVE coach. The QB suckage has made it seem even worse, but fact is the Pats have not strayed far from the same system between the emergence of playmaker Brady (instead of game-manager Brady) and now besides the Cam season and one-off weather games. The recycling of familiar coaches has stagnated this side of the ball, and the Pats really should have been poaching someone learning under Shanahan or the like in a post-Brady world.
Very well said. BB should be commended for his expert personnel and cap management. Where he falls short is on the evaluation side. Oddly it seems part of this poor evaluation and drafting is not due to staff shortcomings, but BB going against his own "process" and overruling recommendations from the player eval guys (see the N'Keal story as an example: https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/bill-belichick-reportedly-ignored-scouts-in-drafting-nkeal-harry). He has a great football mind, but BB has also been in the same position for going on a quarter of a century and does not have the feel of the scouts who are embedded within a number of programs throughout the year. As he himself says, let the evaluation guys "do their job" - if you don't trust them, find new guys.
I know its on me to defend this statement, but frankly, I have about half a dozen times in the last 8-10 weeks. Im sure you can find those posts easy enough with the search function.
Edit: This response wasn't intended to be snarky or shitty, fwiw.
Questionable how? There were very few people who were down on drafting Mac Jones when he did. After Mac Jones first season, there were even less people complaining. Last season saw Mac stumble, and BB acknowledged his error by dumping Patricia/Judge for an established OC that has history with Mac Jones. We invested the resources and needed to know if Mac Jones was the answer. It was clear that BB planned on giving Mac the entire season to prove himself, which was the right decision. At the start of the season, he never pulled Mac, he repeatedly said that Mac was the starter, etc. Even after one of the worst performances I've ever seen from a QB in Dallas, BB sat him and immediately declared that "there was no reason to leave him in there" and that Mac was absolutely the starter (how often does he do that?)
NOBODY could expect Mac to fall as flat as he did this season. Its almost unprecedented. Was the expectation to somehow find a top 10ish QB that could ride the pine in case Mac failed? The revisionist history is crazy, and the desire to paint everything that hasn't worked out as some epic failure by BB is nuts.
If we have an above average tight end, above average tackles and above average running backs, why do we suck so much at....running? We are 25th at rushing yards, 25th in YPA, 25th in rushing touchdowns, dead last in rushes over 20 yards, dead last in broken tackles (last time I checked).
Can't just be coaching at this point. When your tight ends can't block, you're tackles put in inconsistent effort and your running backs are slow to hit holes, can't make anyone miss, and can't break a tackle, kind of seems like none of them are really average, never mind above average.
Here is what I don't understand, how can so many terrible on paper QBs look so much better than anything NE has trotted out this season. Who would have taken Jake Browning, Joe Flacco, Josh Dobbs, Gardiner Minshew, Tommy Devito, Aiden O'Connell over Mac/Zappe going into the season? Maybe Minshew since he has a small track record of success. This leads me to believe that the entire offensive system needs an overhaul.
Bill can clearly still identify talent on the defensive side and coach up that talent but seems that his strengths on that side of the ball are equally his weakness on the offensive side. He can't identify talent, the system is stale, the coaching is ineffective. Does anyone really think Jake Browning would be doing what he is if he was in NE instead of CIN which still has a ton of offensive talent?
Bill can clearly still identify talent on the defensive side and coach up that talent but seems that his strengths on that side of the ball are equally his weakness on the offensive side. He can't identify talent, the system is stale, the coaching is ineffective. Does anyone really think Jake Browning would be doing what he is if he was in NE instead of CIN which still has a ton of offensive talent?
It really hard to run when no one fears your QB throwing the ball 10 yards or more.
Then why are the Bears, Falcons, Browns and Cardinals all in the top 10 in rushing yards per game, followed by the Colts, Giants, Steelers and Panthers among the next 7 teams?
Meanwhile, teams worse than the Pats running the ball include the Chargers, Jags, Seahawks and Bengals, and their quarterbacks seem pretty capable of moving the ball downfield?
They either have better QB's or you know QB's who are a threat to run.
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