I saw that and just burst out lauching. That's insaneThe Red Sox are 30-5 in day games.
I saw that and just burst out lauching. That's insaneThe Red Sox are 30-5 in day games.
Cool - I was thinking leagues. In MLB it’s just Oakland in 2001 and the Pirates in 2015 (the top three teams in mlb were in the NL Central).I did mean in all of MLB, not a league. In that case 1998 isn't true either as all the NL division winners had better records than the Sox.
1979 or 1969?RS are 50.5 games up on BAL with 40 games to go. Since the divisional format in 1979, only 3 teams have finished more than 50 GB in a season: the 1979 Toronto Blue Jays (50½ games behind the Orioles in the AL East), the 1998 Tampa Bay Devil Rays (51 games behind the New York Yankees in the AL East) and the 1998 Florida Marlins (52 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East).
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/08/17/baltimore-orioles-50-games-below-500/1027068002/
Thanks - Oakland had 7 more wins than the third best team, so the 14 games back of Seattle could have been even larger.Cool - I was thinking leagues. In MLB it’s just Oakland in 2001 and the Pirates in 2015 (the top three teams in mlb were in the NL Central).
Pretty reasonable chance it hits 60. Just insane.RS are 50.5 games up on BAL with 40 games to go. Since the divisional format in 1979, only 3 teams have finished more than 50 GB in a season: the 1979 Toronto Blue Jays (50½ games behind the Orioles in the AL East), the 1998 Tampa Bay Devil Rays (51 games behind the New York Yankees in the AL East) and the 1998 Florida Marlins (52 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East).
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/08/17/baltimore-orioles-50-games-below-500/1027068002/
As a reasonableness check, 538 currently projects 112 wins for the Sox and 51 wins for the Os.Pretty reasonable chance it hits 60. Just insane.
That would put them in striking distance of the record, which is either 62.5 or 63.5 games (posted before and don't want to look up right now). That would be an insane cap to the season.Pretty reasonable chance it hits 60. Just insane.
Fangraphs projects the Os to be somewhere around .400 going forward. That seemed high to me until I saw that they still have games left with KC, the White Sox, and a bunch with TOR. Also, it remains to be seen how important the last 10 games are going to be - vs. MFY, BOS, and HOU. Against BOS, they will be playing against most of Pawtucket's roster I would suspect.As a reasonableness check, 538 currently projects 112 wins for the Sox and 51 wins for the Os.
I don’t know about that. We have a couple of guys in Mookie and JD who should be in awards races, even against each other, and lobbying hard to not be on the pine. It will be interesting to see how Cora manages that. Besides, he’s been giving guys days off all year, do they need to rest that much more anyway, and they do need to keep their swings from getting rusty. Will be interesting, and I hope it comes down to “the nice problem to have” sort of thing. Maybe Cora just doubles the amounts of days off for the guys.That would put them in striking distance of the record, which is either 62.5 or 63.5 games (posted before and don't want to look up right now). That would be an insane cap to the season.
Fangraphs projects the Os to be somewhere around .400 going forward. That seemed high to me until I saw that they still have games left with KC, the White Sox, and a bunch with TOR. Also, it remains to be seen how important the last 10 games are going to be - vs. MFY, BOS, and HOU. Against BOS, they will be playing against most of Pawtucket's roster I would suspect.
Ironically, the SoSH Bash was among their worst performances of the seasonI think what will stand out most in my memory is the enjoyment of watching a Red Sox team that seems to be in every single game. The Sox are currently 13-27 (.325) when trailing by three or more runs, better than the overall winning percentage of two AL teams. They've lost only 11 times all year by four or more runs, and have come back to win (off the top of my head: ) at least four times when trailing by four or more.
Their current 1605 ELO is also one greater than the 2001 Mariners' peak.Speaking of 538, after tonight's win it would appear the Sox' Elo has cracked 1600 for the first time ever! At least by their model's attempt to compare different teams across different eras they're now the greatest Red Sox team of all time.
edit: They broke the previous record of 1596, held by the 1912 squad, on the 8th of Aug after Johnson beat the Jays.
For clarity, I was referring to the historical Elo which touched 1600 for the first time in team history and you are referring to the current season's rating which is a bit higher. They are slightly different as explained by 538 below:Their current 1605 ELO is also one greater than the 2001 Mariners' peak.
The complete history of MLB
Our Complete History Of MLB interactive contains historical Elo ratings stretching back to the 1871 season. These charts use a simplified Elo system that doesn’t take pitchers, travel or rest into account. Between seasons, it simply reverts the previous season’s ratings toward the mean by one-third, rather than using projection systems to set preseason ratings.
This means that the Elo ratings in our Complete History of MLB won’t exactly match the team ratings in our MLB Predictions. (Why use two systems? The projection systems we use to generate preseason ratings aren’t available back to 1871. Also, using a simplified rating system for the historical ratings gives us the flexibility to alter our current-season forecast’s methodology from year to year while keeping our historical Elo ratings unchanged.) They’re still pretty useful, however, when it comes to measuring the ebbs and flows of a franchise’s fate over time. Plus, just like our forecast model, our historical Elo ratings will update with the results of each game this season.
Team date Game Rec Win% MaxElo
'53 NYY 14-Jun Gm 52 41-11 .788 1603.0
'98 NYY 09-Jul Gm 82 62-20 .756 1618.4
'76 CIN 13-Aug Gm 116 76-40 .655 1600.1 (only day above 1600)
'18 BOS 18-Aug Gm 124 88-36 .710 1600.0
'54 NYY 29-Aug Gm 129 89-40 .690 1600.6
'54 CLE 11-Sep Gm 142 102-40 .718 1609.8
'17 CLE 21-Sep Gm 155 97-58 .626 1606.7
'01 OAK 04-Oct Gm 159 99-60 .623 1606.4
'01 SEA 04-Oct Gm 159 114-45 .717 1603.6
Yes, yes we know. CongratsThose 2001 A’s had the best record of all time after the ASB, insane that they were in the same division as the 116 win Mariners and even more insane that NY knocked out both of them.
And remember this: from 2019 till the end of mankind we shall make reverences every minute to the superb XXI century Yankees.Yes, yes we know. Congrats
ELO is ridiculous.538 currently gives the Red Sox a 29% chance to win it all. The top 7 NL teams combined are at 28%.
We have always been at war with East NYC.We have always been apoplectic against the Mother Fucking Yankees.
Little suggestion/idea: Since I expect/hope that this list will get longer during the last 1+ month of the season, you could try to condense the black numbers for more readability.Here's an updated list (as of 8/24) of the past Red Sox teams' win totals that the 2018 team has surpassed (new entries in blue):
...
1951 is a new entry and therefore stays in a line by itself (in blue). 1952-1958 are older entries and get condensed into one single line... which would result in:1947
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956-58
There are actually 8 NL teams listed at 1% or higher and they combine for 33%. Because 538 doesn't show rounding, their AL/NL split could be as little as 63.5%/36.5% which isn't too far off the implied Vegas odds (though I haven't been able to find those - SirPsycho, do you have a link for your implied 58%?)538 currently gives the Red Sox a 29% chance to win it all. The top 7 NL teams combined are at 28%.
I can't access betting sites from work - it was from the MLB Future Odds on VegasInsider.com. I calculated the implied odds - I believe correctlyThere are actually 8 NL teams listed at 1% or higher and they combine for 33%. Because 538 doesn't show rounding, their AL/NL split could be as little as 63.5%/36.5% which isn't too far off the implied Vegas odds (though I haven't been able to find those - SirPsycho, do you have a link for your implied 58%?)
And y'all were whining about the "pink hats" a decade ago. #hipsternation
Ok, so I assume then that you added up the individual team odds and then divided by the sum (i.e. the VIG if you were to bet on all teams on offer) to scale it? Doing that I get 57.4% to 46.8% but that's not really fool-proof as you can't lock it in. Really all you can say from betting arbitrage is that the AL is between 50.4% and 66.9% likely to win.I can't access betting sites from work - it was from the MLB Future Odds on VegasInsider.com. I calculated the implied odds - I believe correctly
I'm not sure I'm following the math above - in 4 games, there is no home field advantage. In 6 games, there is no home field advantage. Am I reading this wrong?Ok, so I assume then that you added up the individual team odds and then divided by the sum (i.e. the VIG if you were to bet on all teams on offer) to scale it? Doing that I get 57.4% to 46.8% but that's not really fool-proof as you can't lock it in. Really all you can say from betting arbitrage is that the AL is between 50.4% and 66.9% likely to win.
Another consideration on the 538 estimate is the likelihood that the AL will have home field advantage. Working backwards and assuming a .540 average winning percentage for the home team (I believe this is the 10-year average for all teams) it would take a 6.9% natural advantage (i.e. a win probability of .569 at a neutral site and thus a .609 probability at home and .529 away) for the team with HFA to have a 66% chance of winning the Series (10.4% in 4 games, 16.8% in 5, 20.8% in 6 and 18.0% in 7 games). That's a money line of -132 (with no VIG) so equivalent to about -140 for a typical line on a team with similar probabilities of winning. On Tuesday Houston (with Peacock starting) was -145 away to Seattle (Vincent) as a comparison. Or closer to home Boston (Eovaldi) was -143 at home to Cleveland (Bieber).
I don't think it's that unreasonable and certainly shouldn't be called ridiculous.
For 2010 through 2017, the home team won 10407 games and the visiting team, 8976, which is 0.53691379. [Retrosheet data]and assuming a .540 average winning percentage for the home team (I believe this is the 10-year average for all teams)
Yes, you know that in order to get the winning percentage to .540 by extending the data for the eight years I provided data to ten years that the home team would have had to have had a winning percentage of .550 for 2008 and 2009? Or was it something else you knew?Look, if you’re going to cherry-pick a random eight year sequence when the concept is ten years you can prove most any position.
Yes, I know.
Or 7th year anniversaryThe team is currently playing like it's celebrating a 40th anniversary or something
Keep burying your head till its a 3 game lead with a 3 game yankees in the Bronx comng up and suddenly those goons in the Bronx are lit...still will be fine for you i imagineBecause no division winning teams have ever gotten swept in a late season series. Wait a minute here’s one.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2007-schedule-scores.shtml
And here’s another one that actually lost 6 of 8 in August to drop their division lead to one. I wonder what happened to that team.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2013-schedule-scores.shtml
I’m confident in this team. If you want to shit your pants every day for the next month then that’s your business. This years club has played well enough for long enough that a three game losing streak isn’t enough to start panicking. I don’t care what happened in previous years.Keep burying your head till its a 3 game lead with a 3 game yankees in the Bronx comng up and suddenly those goons in the Bronx are lit...still will be fine for you i imagine