But then having a Hou/MFY WC game guarantees you won't face both, and the ALCS is against winner of CLE/OAK. Let's say Home Field Houston is 55% to beat MFY, and Home Field OAK is 55% to beat CLE. You have the following odds of facing these teams:
- 30% HOU/OAK
- 25% MFY/OAK
- 25% HOU/CLE
- 20% MFY/CLE
In your scenario, let's say Home Team Yankees are 55% to beat OAK, and Home Field HOU is 60% to beat CLE.
- 33% MFY/HOU
- 27% OAK/HOU
- 22% MFY/CLE
- 18% OAK/CLE
1st scenario guarantees one of the 2 best teams and then one of the other teams.
2nd scenario has no guarantees. Most likely scenario is facing BOTH of the 2 best teams. Least likely scenario is missing both of them.
I guess part of it is how much better than the MFY is HOU? BP thinks a lot, Fangraphs thinks not much.