I have two issues with this line of thinking. One, we have additional information about Brady beyond him being chosen at pick 199. Some of that data is evident only in hindsight and is not fair to apply to the likelihood of early Brady catching on. However, some of this information would have been and should have been evident to whichever team chose Brady in the sixth or seventh round or signed him as a priority UDFA. Brady's smarts, accuracy, leadership / charisma, and drive would have shown up in camp and the preseason wherever he went. Teams demanding elite physical tools still might not be impressed, but they likely aren't picking him up anyway. We also know one of the reasons Brady slipped - the Henson situation - was total nonsense, and that also would have been evident. To me, there has to be a middle ground between the extremes of "Brady was destined to be GOAT anywhere" and "Brady had no better odds than your typical 199th pick."Exactly. The data here is quite clear; I get that we all love Brady, but some folks are letting that get in the way of looking at the probabilities in a sober way.
The key point here is the shot Brady got initially---I agree with those who say that even his first 8 games earned him more opportunities. But few guys starting where he did get a 'clean' 8 game shot, and I think it's really tough to make the case that Belichick drafting him, keeping him as a fourth QB, and then elevating him to backup and giving him that shot wasn't very unique, and something Belichick has to get the credit for.
I guess you could argue that after 2-3 games he earned the rest of them, and limit the comparison to guys who went that low, were the fourth QB for a year, moved up to second, and then had 2-3 games to prove themselves...but I'm confident that is a very small set of guys, too.
Saying those things are pretty clearly true does not change that Belichick is lucky too--most guys you give that shot to aren't anywhere near as able to take it and run with it as Brady has been, and the success the team has had is built on that, too. Brady deserves credit for making himself into the best QB in league history, and Belichick has benefitted hugely from that. But the reality is Brady got his shot because Belichick gave it to him, and in a context few would have.
The second issue I have is that even if you give Belichick 100% credit (or more realistically, 75% credit or something) for 2001 Brady, over time I don't think it's reasonable to continue to give him that kind of credit for what Brady continues to accomplish. A lot of other events (and not just events, but day-to-day blood, sweat, and tears) have happened in the intervening 16 years. It's one thing if we're having this conversation in 2004, but at the point where the decision is almost old enough to drive a car, it strikes me as silly to continue to put a significant amount of weight on it. To me, Belichick was probably* more important through the first three Super Bowl runs, but Brady has been the more key figure from 2007-on.
*One factor I don't know how to weigh in this discussion is Brady's contract. It was a huge help to those early teams that Brady was making relative peanuts and letting them use cap elsewhere. I'm not sure how much to credit Brady for that, because a lot of it was just the circumstance of rookie contract, but there's no doubt he was incredibly value relative to his contract even before he put up MVP-type numbers (and we shouldn't sell short his early performances given the surrounding offensive talent or lack thereof). I'm similarly uncertain how to factor in Brady taking somewhat less than market other the last decade.