Tom Brady, first ballot Hall of Famer?

[BostonWolverine]

Brady is consistently referred to as a future First ballot hall of famer by the media. This started for some after his 4th Superbowl and is now widely accepted after the 5th. When do you think it happened?

For what it's worth, I think he would have gotten into the hall eventually after winning 3 out of 4 and after winning the 4th superbowl he cemented his case as a first ballot.

 

[drbretto]

I moved my vote. I originally voted after the three out of four, but that would have made him a likely HoFer, not necessarily first ballot. By 2007, it was a forgone conclusion. Somewhere between the 4th or 5th SB, he lapped himself and would have been a HoF all over again.

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

Nitpick, but fifth Super Bowl appearance was the 2011 season, not 2010.

I said 2010 anyways, a second (and the only unanimous one in league history) MVP sealed it. He had the rings, and 2007 was legendary, but the second MVP showed it was more than just Moss that got him the stats, and that was the year they broke out that devastating no huddle and it was clear he was out there reading the defense, calling the plays at the line and showing his real chops.

 

[johnmd20]

The 2007 season is what made him an official first ballot hall of famer. If his injury to start 2008 ended his career, he would still have been a first ballot HoFamer. But he wouldn't have been after 2006.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

The 2007 season is what made him an official first ballot hall of famer. If his injury to start 2008 ended his career, he would still have been a first ballot HoFamer. But he wouldn't have been after 2006.

I think this is probably the correct answer. That season took him from ‘winner’ to ‘also has the stats’.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Vito Stelino, a member of the selection committee, has said in the past he doesn’t think Brady should be a first ballot Hall of Famer because of DeflateGate. He’s likely in the very small minority, but there could be others who hold the suspension against him.

I’d bet Manning gets a higher percentage than Brady on the first ballot.

 

[drbretto]

The 2007 season is what made him an official first ballot hall of famer. If his injury to start 2008 ended his career, he would still have been a first ballot HoFamer. But he wouldn't have been after 2006.

And if 2008 Ended Tom Brady's career, then he grew a mustache and started a new career under a different name starting in 2009, by 2018 his alter ego is also a first ballot Hall of Famer.

 

[snowmanny]

The HOF voters also vote on the NFL All-Decade team. The first team quarterbacks from the 70's, 80's, 90's (Bradshaw, Montana, Elway) were all first-ballot HOFers. The moment Brady established he was first team-QB of the decade he was in first-ballot, so I'll say 2009. The fact that he's probably going to be the first team QB this decade as well should get him in a little earlier than that though.

 

[DegenerateSoxFan]

'07 without a doubt. If anything would have made him wait a ballot or three before getting in, it would have been the thought that he was a "system" guy who benefited from some top-notch defenses for his first three titles (despite the Carolina win ending up being a shootout). Not after his numbers and 16-0.

 

[bankshot1]

Jim Plunkett says after the 3rd SB win.

 

[Royal Reader]

The HOF voters also vote on the NFL All-Decade team. The first team quarterbacks from the 70's, 80's, 90's (Bradshaw, Montana, Elway) were all first-ballot HOFers. The moment Brady established he was first team-QB of the decade he was in first-ballot, so I'll say 2009. The fact that he's probably going to be the first team QB this decade as well should get him in a little earlier than that though.

You know, he absolutely should be, but I can see the voters going for Rodgers.

 

[reggiecleveland]

The voters love guys that win SB so was probably in early, the MVP made it first ballot.

 

[The Needler]

You know, he absolutely should be, but I can see the voters going for Rodgers.

Wrong decade. The other option for the 2000s is Manning.

As for this decade, there’s obviously still time left, but Rodgers has already missed the equivalent of more than a season. Even with the suspension, Tom has 14 or 15 more starts, which means something.

 

[DJnVa]

Who voted "not there yet"? Show yourself!

 

[scottyno]

Brady after 2007 is similar to Kurt Warner's entire career, Warner got in, but a lot of people didn't think he had the longevity. No way Brady with a 4 year career gets in, especially because that was before he had proved to many he was more than just a "system qb".

 

[Royal Reader]

Wrong decade. The other option for the 2000s is Manning.

As for this decade, there’s obviously still time left, but Rodgers has already missed the equivalent of more than a season. Even with the suspension, Tom has 14 or 15 more starts, which means something.

No, you misread me. The post I quoted points out that Tom is already in the books as the guy for the 2000s. I was talking about the 2010s.

The starts gap could vanish if Rodgers has better health, or Tom just retires after this year. Imho the difference isn't the regular season at all, though.

 

[wiffleballhero]

After the second Super Bowl Brady needed to actively show negative performance to keep himself out of the HoF.

By the third, he needed to do something criminal* to not get in, and even sucking terribly on the field should have still led to him getting in. Simply being a warm body for a couple years after "Philly Bowl I" would have been good enough for first ballot.

This is not the baseball HoF where a patina of standards is sort of in place.

*(this does not even matter, apparently: Ray Lewis)

 

[Super Nomario]

You know, he absolutely should be, but I can see the voters going for Rodgers.

I think it's probably Brady as of now - both two MVPs since 2010, Brady one more SB, and he's played 14 more games this decade. Rate stats maybe slight edge to Rodgers but they're similar (ANY/A is 7.57 Rodgers to 7.52 for Brady; tough to get much closer than that), but Brady has 10 more TDs and ~5,000 more yards.

The other guy with an argument is Brees, who has about 5,000 more yards than Brady and 20 more TDs, plus the best completion percentage, though team success isn't there and 0 MVPs and Super Bowls. He was probably the #3 guy for the 2000-2009 decade, too.

 

[loshjott]

Troy Aikman was a first ballot Hall of Famer. If Brady had retired the day after his third Super Bowl win, he also would’ve been a first balloter.

 

[BaseballJones]

And if 2008 Ended Tom Brady's career, then he grew a mustache and started a new career under a different name starting in 2009, by 2018 his alter ego is also a first ballot Hall of Famer.

Yep. Brady's had two HOF careers. It is an interesting question of whether the first half of his career was greater than his second half.

2000-2008
- 87-24 record (.784)
- 63.0% comp, 26,446 yds, 7.2 ypa, 197 td (5.4%), 86 int (2.4%), 92.9 rating, 0.92 AV/game
- 3 SB titles
- 4 AFC championships
- 14-3 playoff record (.824)
- 1 NFL MVP
- 2 SB MVP
- 4 Pro Bowls

2009-2018
- 113-33 record (.774)
- 64.7% comp, 41,312 yds, 7.7 ypa, 304 td (5.7%), 80 int (1.5%), 100.8 rating, 1.03 AV/game
- 2 SB titles
- 4 AFC championships
- 13-7 playoff record (.650)
- 2 NFL MVP
- 2 SB MVP
- 9 Pro Bowls

The overall stats are better during the second half of his career, but the league as a whole saw a massive increase in passing numbers. So relative to the league, the disparity between Brady's first half and second half numbers (of his career) isn't quite what it looks. The winning was better - both in SB titles and in win % both during the regular season and playoffs - in the first half.

 

[bigq]

After the second Super Bowl Brady needed to actively show negative performance to keep himself out of the HoF.

By this logic Eli doesn’t get in which makes me happy.

I voted after three out of four. Only other QB to do that in NFL history is Aikman who was first ballot.

 

[johnmd20]

Who voted "not there yet"? Show yourself!

Auto ban.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

We need a full voxxing here, then make them wear a polka dot bikini.

 

[McDrew]

I think you need 4 things to be a clear 1st ballot HoF'er:
1) Regular season dominance: Multiple MVP's, or a single MVP that was absolute statistical dominance. (2007, 2010, 2017. 2007 was dominant enough this category was fulfilled then)
2) Postseason dominance: A signature championship or multiple championships (he has both) (2001, 2003, 2004, 2014, 2016. I'll give him this in 2003. 2x MVP and 2x Super bowl champ qualifies here)
3) Statistical Superiority: A signature record or multiple significant records. (I'll give this to him for the 2007 season, he's only added to it since).
4) Media Superiority: The selection committee are people. Tom Brady has to get 80% of the room. I could see him getting 70-something because of DG/SG and waiting a year because a small number of people decided to make a big show of refusing to let him in in the first year.

 

[Koufax]

I voted 2007 before reading the posts above. Nothing there changed my mind. After '07 he had a long enough track record, rings and a spectacular season. What more can you ask for? (And of course then deflategate had not happened, so if he had retired then his reputation would have been less blemished.

 

[Ed Hillel]

He was in after 2004, even had he played another 3 years of below-average play and never made another team. Three superbowls is, like, a lot.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I think you need 4 things to be a clear 1st ballot HoF'er:
1) Regular season dominance: Multiple MVP's, or a single MVP that was absolute statistical dominance. (2007, 2010, 2017. 2007 was dominant enough this category was fulfilled then)
2) Postseason dominance: A signature championship or multiple championships (he has both) (2001, 2003, 2004, 2014, 2016. I'll give him this in 2003. 2x MVP and 2x Super bowl champ qualifies here)
3) Statistical Superiority: A signature record or multiple significant records. (I'll give this to him for the 2007 season, he's only added to it since).
4) Media Superiority: The selection committee are people. Tom Brady has to get 80% of the room. I could see him getting 70-something because of DG/SG and waiting a year because a small number of people decided to make a big show of refusing to let him in in the first year.

To 4, come on man, I highly doubt it. He’d need 10 people to be complete morons. The panel isn’t as ‘holier than thou’ as MLB and they have to sit in a room and defend not voting for him, rather than just mailing in a ballot. Maybe one or two grandstand, but I find it extremely unlikely ten of them do.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I don’t even know how ‘if’ he’s first ballot is a question, good god.

 

[patinorange]

There should be a wing of the HOF devoted to and named after Tom Brady.

 

[McDrew]

To 4, come on man, I highly doubt it. He’d need 10 people to be complete morons. The panel isn’t as ‘holier than thou’ as MLB and they have to sit in a room and defend not voting for him, rather than just mailing in a ballot. Maybe one or two grandstand, but I find it extremely unlikely ten of them do.

I'm not saying its likely, but I'm saying that if there is a reason that he isn't a first ballot HOF, that's the reason that it happens.

 

[Helmet Head]

Question, is Eli Manning a first ballot Hall of Famer?

If so, Brady is for sure a first ballot Hall of Famer after the 04 season

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I don’t think Eli is first ballot, especially if he’s allowed to keep shitting the bed, but he’s (sadly) going to get in. He has the royalty but also is running a severe risk of finishing below .500 for his career.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Yep. Brady's had two HOF careers. It is an interesting question of whether the first half of his career was greater than his second half.

2000-2008
- 87-24 record (.784)
- 63.0% comp, 26,446 yds, 7.2 ypa, 197 td (5.4%), 86 int (2.4%), 92.9 rating, 0.92 AV/game
- 3 SB titles
- 4 AFC championships
- 14-3 playoff record (.824)
- 1 NFL MVP
- 2 SB MVP
- 4 Pro Bowls

2009-2018
- 113-33 record (.774)
- 64.7% comp, 41,312 yds, 7.7 ypa, 304 td (5.7%), 80 int (1.5%), 100.8 rating, 1.03 AV/game
- 2 SB titles
- 4 AFC championships
- 13-7 playoff record (.650)
- 2 NFL MVP
- 2 SB MVP
- 9 Pro Bowls

The overall stats are better during the second half of his career, but the league as a whole saw a massive increase in passing numbers. So relative to the league, the disparity between Brady's first half and second half numbers (of his career) isn't quite what it looks. The winning was better - both in SB titles and in win % both during the regular season and playoffs - in the first half.

This post says it all. He could have retired the day after his ACL injury, and been a first ballot HOF'er. Or he could have started his career in 2009, and he'd be a first ballot HOF'er. He has two first ballot careers, and neither of which are even arguable.

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

Question, is Eli Manning a first ballot Hall of Famer?

If so, Brady is for sure a first ballot Hall of Famer after the 04 season

He's not even close to first ballot. He's actually a non half of famer that becomes borderline and will probably get in because of his team's defenses delivering two championships.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

He’s glorified Matt Hasselbeck.

 

[Koufax]

And his last name (responding to DCF).

 

[mauf]

Who voted "not there yet"? Show yourself!

It wasn’t me, but given the opacity of the selection process and the relatively small number of people involved, it’s within the realm of possibility that TB12 will get negged in year 1.

It would almost be worth it happening if it led to reform of the selection process.

 

[lexrageorge]

Yes, the NFL has the most screwed up selection process of all the major sports. At least one reporter will bring up Deflategate, and one ultra-low-information type from New York will bring up Spygate. Also depends a bit if there's a backlog of worthy candidates due to earlier bad decisions.

It should be the most obvious, slam dunk, zero-argument, no-brainer vote in history, but I for one will not count on it until it actually happens. And I voted for choice #1 above.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I’d rather fifty guys get in a room and argue it out than 450 old men (literally) mail in their vote and play their games of morality and precedent. And then two other committees convene after your eligibility runs out. Ymmv.

 

[TFisNEXT]

I agree that 3 out of 4 got him in first ballot (see Aikman precedent). Though maybe you could argue he had to complete some more seasons just to compile a few more stats. Like if he literally got hit by a bus after beating Philly in the SB and it ended his career, you could argue that he might not get first ballot since he had only played as a starter for 4 seasons.

So I can see how a year like '07 sealed it.

 

[theapportioner]

Agree on Brady going to the Hall based on his pre-ACL injury career alone, maybe first ballot. But not sure about a separate candidacy afterwards. Besides Aaron Rodgers I'm not sure any QB who debuted around 2008-2009 and after is a Hall of Famer right now. Hard time seeing Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco etc. get in if they retired today, given the general inflation of QB stats. Probably Brady would get in eventually based on the two extra SB wins and two additional appearances, but the Deflategate BS would hurt him more.

 

[Helmet Head]

He's not even close to first ballot. He's actually a non half of famer that becomes borderline and will probably get in because of his team's defenses delivering two championships.

While I agree that Eli is not even close to a first Ballot Hall of Famer, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is. Just the way nfl process goes. I really can’t wait when Eli comes up for the hall of fame. I personally think he a very average qb with two good January runs. If that gets you in on the first ballot, well, the whole process is a joke.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Agree on Brady going to the Hall based on his pre-ACL injury career alone, maybe first ballot. But not sure about a separate candidacy afterwards. Besides Aaron Rodgers I'm not sure any QB who debuted around 2008-2009 and after is a Hall of Famer right now. Hard time seeing Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco etc. get in if they retired today, given the general inflation of QB stats. Probably Brady would get in eventually based on the two extra SB wins and two additional appearances, but the Deflategate BS would hurt him more.

4 Super Bowl Appearances, 2 wins, NFL MVP....It's a no-brainer. It would be laughable if he didn't get in. I'd have a hard time seeing any of those other guys get in too if they retired today. They aren't in Brady's stratosphere, just based on the SB appearances alone. The Pats have been to 7 consecutive Conference Championships since 2011, and his actual statistics are as good as anyone's over that time period. There hasn't been a QB in the NFL with what, 3 Super Bowl appearances, that wasn't a first ballot hall of famer? It seems like folks are trying to ding Brady for going to too many Super Bowls in too short a period of time.

Edit: And just to be clear, you're saying he's not a hall of famer after 2009, or not first ballot? I might buy a "not first ballot" argument (ok, not really), but not a hall of famer? And Aaron Rodgers is? What? Aaron Rodgers and his one super bowl appearance gets in, but Brady and his 4 don't? That's just not reality.

 

[loshjott]

If Brady debuted in 2007 he'd be seen as an Elway-like figure, losing his first two SBs before finally breaking through - thanks to Malcolm Butler in the Terrell Davis role. Then solidifying his stature with the Atlanta comeback.

 

[jaytftwofive]

To me it was 2006 when he went 12-4 with no name wide receivers. Sorry to correct you but it was 2011 when he went to his 5th Super Bowl not 2010. 2011 season, 2012 Super Bowl.

 

[bakahump]

A better question is should they name the Best NFL QB award after him?
Is there a Best Post Season QB Award?

Dumb aside, but what Trophy would you name after Tom Brady?
As far as I can tell the NFL has held off in naming the MVP, OPoY, DPoY, ROY, CPOY and SBMVP after players. (As opposed to Philanthropy and sportsmanship awards).

Has to be the Thomas E Brady Superbowl MVP Award right?