This got lots of chatter here when the article came out. Maybe in the Former Sox thread? If you want to check it out
Trade Deadline Approach
- Thread starter tims4wins
- Start date
Yeah, it's in that thread where we complain about the Mookie trade. You know the one.
2019 the only trade they made in July was for Andrew Cashner. Technically close enough to the deadline to count it but it wasn't much of a move.
FWIW, if the Sox do nothing else, they did trade away Kike so it's not like they did absolutely nothing.
Incredibly, you could justify any course of action this year. Buy, sell, buy/sell, stand pat. There's compelling logic to all of them.
Sox really need a healthy, good starter. Most of what was available is off the market. Amazing this team has remained in the hunt with 3 starters.
I'm not quite sure how we define what is available. There are a bunch of teams that are not in the WC hunt that would likely have an arm or two that they might be willing to discuss.
Mitch Keller is still out there. Surprised, actually, that the Pirates haven't made a move yet
He seems like the sort they might want to hold on to. Arb eligible after this season, but they should still be affordable for him.
Yeah they should but for the second year in a row they’re determined to buy whether they should or not
Devers wants them to be buyers: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/07/30/sports/red-sox-invested-rafael-devers-now-he-wants-them-invest-team-playoff-push/
Report: Listening on Verdugo
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/07/as-trade-deadline-approaches-red-sox-listening-on-alex-verdugo-sources.html
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/07/as-trade-deadline-approaches-red-sox-listening-on-alex-verdugo-sources.html
2.5 out of the WC with a quality bat and glove back soon and a trio of pitchers. That in itself is akin to 4 roster moves that should improve the team without giving anything up. Why/who are you selling?
I'm not sure that the moves made last season characterize them as buyers, but YMMV.
I've brought this up before. It's a good point. "Yeah I want to improve the team." Ok, fair enough. Who do you want to replace? Name names, buddy.
Players are just like fans in that respect. They just want to see activity from the front office. Activity is better than doing nothing. Doesn't matter that the activity might not even help. Do "something".
Devers is being a leader and standing up for his team. He’s communicating they have expectations of not selling based on their play.
I have zero issue with it. Frankly, I like seeing it from a younger player who is now the cornerstone of the franchise.
I have zero issue with it. Frankly, I like seeing it from a younger player who is now the cornerstone of the franchise.
"Hey Raffy!"
"Yeah?"
"You wanted us to improve the team?"
"YES!"
"Ok. We just did. You've been traded to Atlanta for Austin Riley."
"That's.....not what I meant."
(though in this ridiculous scenario, he probably wouldn't mind)
"Yeah?"
"You wanted us to improve the team?"
"YES!"
"Ok. We just did. You've been traded to Atlanta for Austin Riley."
"That's.....not what I meant."
(though in this ridiculous scenario, he probably wouldn't mind)
My favorite days of the baseball season....
1. Opening Day.
2. Game one of the World Series.
3. THE TRADE DEADLINE DAY!!!!!!
1. Opening Day.
2. Game one of the World Series.
3. THE TRADE DEADLINE DAY!!!!!!
I think there won't be a lot done by the Sox today. My wager is that they do a couple of small things but that's it. We all know they have serious reinforcements coming anyway, and I think Chaim will rely mainly on those. But we'll see!
I wasn't able to read the article, so I didn't comment, but the thought did cross my mind. That said I'm OK with a player saying "I think we're good enough to give this a shot, maybe we can use another player to help." But in this case there are potentially 4 guys coming back in the next week or two. When they're back, four guys are coming off the roster. I'm not seeing too many options for the Sox to make a move. IMO possibly Duvall who would need to be replaced with a similar player (RH corner OF type possibly with remaining control ) or perhaps a younger RH version of Verdugo. Maybe an Edman type to replace Arroyo up the middle. On the pitching end, I think 2 of the 3 returning pitchers land in the rotation and one in the pen. I'm not seeing much that HAS to happen there externally.
Just so people are clear, the trade deadline is tomorrow - August 1st at 6 pm..
Does anyone really expect players to come out and name the guys that they think need to be replaced? There is literally only downside on that for the players.
Devers comes out and says "Well, we have black holes filling our middle infield and have all season. We have 3 starting pitchers, and we're hanging all our hopes on a short stop coming back from Tommy John lite, a 34 year old SP that has averaged 7 starts over the past 3 years (or 5 over 4 years if one wants to count 20220) and a kid that literally had his face broken. I'd like to see us add some pieces." The team doesn't (or can't) address those, and then Devers has to share a clubhouse with Arroyo, the cast of openers, or whatever and that is going to help the clubhouse, how...?
If someone wants to take the "shut up and dribble" stance for all players, that's fine. I personally like that the players are giving an actual stance. It's more interesting to read and gives a little insight into the clubhouse mindset.
But like @Red(s)HawksFan fan alluded to above, on field personnel always want to see activity from the FO. Whether it's right (or wrong), it's human nature that when you see teams all around you in the standings adding, if the team does nothing (or sells) it gives the perception that the Red Sox FO doesn't believe in their team as much as the Astros, Rangers and Blue Jays believe in theirs. I'm not trying to say if that's objectively correct or incorrect, but I think we've all watched enough baseball to know it's what often happens.
Who knows, maybe the FO does nothing, and Alex Cora prints out a cardboard cutout of Bloom in a leopard skin tuxedo and they peel a section with every game won and go on to storm to the division title. Maybe Bloom goes out and adds Dylan Cease, Brendon Donvan and Juan Soto and the team still falls apart.
But we can pretty reasonably be assured of a couple of things this deadline:
1) The media is going to complain. Regardless of if Boston buys (Shank will complain), sells or does nothing (seemingly everyone else will).
2) On field personnel want to add - and will be disappointed if they don't.
3) Whatever decision is made will be almost assuredly be logical and defensible - and hindsight will be the only way to show if it was correct or incorrect.
Devers comes out and says "Well, we have black holes filling our middle infield and have all season. We have 3 starting pitchers, and we're hanging all our hopes on a short stop coming back from Tommy John lite, a 34 year old SP that has averaged 7 starts over the past 3 years (or 5 over 4 years if one wants to count 20220) and a kid that literally had his face broken. I'd like to see us add some pieces." The team doesn't (or can't) address those, and then Devers has to share a clubhouse with Arroyo, the cast of openers, or whatever and that is going to help the clubhouse, how...?
If someone wants to take the "shut up and dribble" stance for all players, that's fine. I personally like that the players are giving an actual stance. It's more interesting to read and gives a little insight into the clubhouse mindset.
But like @Red(s)HawksFan fan alluded to above, on field personnel always want to see activity from the FO. Whether it's right (or wrong), it's human nature that when you see teams all around you in the standings adding, if the team does nothing (or sells) it gives the perception that the Red Sox FO doesn't believe in their team as much as the Astros, Rangers and Blue Jays believe in theirs. I'm not trying to say if that's objectively correct or incorrect, but I think we've all watched enough baseball to know it's what often happens.
Who knows, maybe the FO does nothing, and Alex Cora prints out a cardboard cutout of Bloom in a leopard skin tuxedo and they peel a section with every game won and go on to storm to the division title. Maybe Bloom goes out and adds Dylan Cease, Brendon Donvan and Juan Soto and the team still falls apart.
But we can pretty reasonably be assured of a couple of things this deadline:
1) The media is going to complain. Regardless of if Boston buys (Shank will complain), sells or does nothing (seemingly everyone else will).
2) On field personnel want to add - and will be disappointed if they don't.
3) Whatever decision is made will be almost assuredly be logical and defensible - and hindsight will be the only way to show if it was correct or incorrect.
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If a costly Scherzer fetched a roughly #50-ranked prospect (#44 by MLB.com, #56 per Fangraphs) and Giolito did the same (#65 per MLB; #61 per Fangraphs), I'm certainly curious what a dirt-cheap Paxton would bring back, even if we have to replace him.
But the number of trade possibilities are finite. I assume any Paxton deal would be limited to NL teams, and I assume that the main return wouldn't be a catching prospect. With all that in mind, and using Scherzer/Giolito returns as a baseline, here are 10 NL teams and their trade targets, listed in descending order of playoff odds...
Locks
The Braves have a terrible system and are getting Fried and maybe Wright back soon. I think the only deals that seem to work here involve AJ Smith-Shawver (#67) or Vaughn Grissom, and I doubt they do it.
The Dodgers already traded for Lynn, but have to be pretty worried about Gonsolin and Urias. They have multiple prospects in the mid-Top 100 range (Michael Busch, Andy Pages, Gavin Stone), and post-prospect Miguel Vargas seems like a candidate to be moved too.
Likelies
The Phillies have the best pitching staff in baseball, so wouldn't seem to need Paxton. But they also need an outfielder. Would they give up Mick Abel for both? Doubtful.
The Brewers are getting Woodruff and Miley back, so may be less inclined to trade for Paxton. But they too need an outfielder, and Verdugo would slot into a nice platoon situation with Wiemer. The guy I like there is Jacob Misiorowski (#84 on MLB's Top 100), and 2B/CF Tyler Black has immense plate discipline and speed.
The Giants aren't giving up Matos or Luciano, and I doubt they make Kyle Harrison available despite his rough year. I don't know how else we match up.
Hopefuls
The Marlins already have one of the better pitching staffs in the game and seem likelier to trade for hitting. On the other hand, Paxton's salary is probably interesting to them, and they have more long-term pitching assets than they can handle. Assuming they don't want to move Jake Eder (Fangraphs #54), maybe a Paxton for Trevor Rogers deal (FA 2027, currently out with a lat tear) works? Would they trade Jazz?
The Diamondbacks probably don't want to give up on Brandon Pfaadt or Druw Jones despite their 2023 setbacks. I don't think Alec Thomas or Ryne Nelson would be interesting to us.
The Cubs have a bunch of prospects in the top 100 (CF Pete Crow-Armstrong, 2B James Triantos, LHSPs Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks, OF Kevin Alcantara) but aren't likely to bet this hard on an outside bid for the playoffs. One guy who might fit here is Alcantara, a 6'6" outfielder (and former Yankee prospect, via the Rizzo trade), who is in A+ and already on their 40-man.
The Reds are a nice story and I'd love to see them go for it, but their odds are around 30 percent. Noelvi Marte and Cam Collier would be the targets here, I'd think, but I don't think they do it. There's also Edwin Arroyo, who was the #52 prospect last year, but has fallen off.
The Padres should sell, but might not. Dylan Lesko (still 19, returning from TJS) would be an interesting gamble. I don't think we'd be interested in catching prospect Ethan Salas. On their roster, a Cronenworth swap might make sense for both teams, but I doubt they move him four months after extending him.
Among American League teams, I think Minnesota is probably the only one we'd deal with. I want to say they're a lock to win the Central (and therefore not our competition), but they always make it interesting and just got swept by the Royals. They've got a very good pitching staff and wouldn't seem to need too much help, but maybe they're ready to move on from Royce Lewis?
_____
To recap, I see only a handful of scenarios where a Paxton deal would seem to make sense, with value consistent with the Giolito/Scherzer trades. (I'm also leaving aside the question of who would replace Paxton in our rotation, if we do a complex sell-and-buy, though I think E-Rod has some merit.)
Milwaukee receives Paxton and Verdugo, Boston receives Jacob Misiorowski, Tyler Black and Luis Urias
Misiorowski is a "high ceiling/high variance" starter who has moved quickly through the Brewers system, and Black's plate discipline is terrific. The Sox also get a chance to reboot Urias into a starting 2B. This is interesting to me but I think it's too high variability.
Los Angeles Dodgers receive James Paxton, Boston receives 2B/DH Miguel Vargas
This one makes sense to me. The Dodgers desperately need pitching and have a little bit of a surplus with these bat-first prospects (Vargas and Busch). Vargas can play a bit of 2B, 3B and LF, but he's more likely a long-term DH, a solid right-handed bat with a great approach and plate discipline, and who would be a doubles machine.
Miami receives James Paxton, Boston receives Trevor Rogers
Paxton would join Alcantara, Garrett and Luzardo as a great 1-4. The Marlins have too many young pitchers, and more (Perez, Meyer, Eder, Fulton) on the way. This swaps out one who wouldn't help them this year, but could settle in nicely for the next three years for us.
Chicago Cubs receive Paxton for Kevin Alcantara
If the Cubs go for it, I could see this happening. Alcantara is pretty high variance himself and had a rough early '23, but has been a monster over the last month after some changes at the plate. The fact that he's on the 40-man and still in A+ might make him more available.
Minnesota receives Paxton for Royce Lewis
I don't think the Twins want to move on from Lewis (who is working his way back from an oblique injury), but he's positionless in a Polanco-Correa-Julien infield and persistent injuries have left questions.
All of these guys are compelling targets, though each has some question marks about their long-term value. I think that corresponds well with Paxton, who has been the game's 21st most valuable SP since his May 12th debut, but is seen as an injury risk.
But the number of trade possibilities are finite. I assume any Paxton deal would be limited to NL teams, and I assume that the main return wouldn't be a catching prospect. With all that in mind, and using Scherzer/Giolito returns as a baseline, here are 10 NL teams and their trade targets, listed in descending order of playoff odds...
Locks
The Braves have a terrible system and are getting Fried and maybe Wright back soon. I think the only deals that seem to work here involve AJ Smith-Shawver (#67) or Vaughn Grissom, and I doubt they do it.
The Dodgers already traded for Lynn, but have to be pretty worried about Gonsolin and Urias. They have multiple prospects in the mid-Top 100 range (Michael Busch, Andy Pages, Gavin Stone), and post-prospect Miguel Vargas seems like a candidate to be moved too.
Likelies
The Phillies have the best pitching staff in baseball, so wouldn't seem to need Paxton. But they also need an outfielder. Would they give up Mick Abel for both? Doubtful.
The Brewers are getting Woodruff and Miley back, so may be less inclined to trade for Paxton. But they too need an outfielder, and Verdugo would slot into a nice platoon situation with Wiemer. The guy I like there is Jacob Misiorowski (#84 on MLB's Top 100), and 2B/CF Tyler Black has immense plate discipline and speed.
The Giants aren't giving up Matos or Luciano, and I doubt they make Kyle Harrison available despite his rough year. I don't know how else we match up.
Hopefuls
The Marlins already have one of the better pitching staffs in the game and seem likelier to trade for hitting. On the other hand, Paxton's salary is probably interesting to them, and they have more long-term pitching assets than they can handle. Assuming they don't want to move Jake Eder (Fangraphs #54), maybe a Paxton for Trevor Rogers deal (FA 2027, currently out with a lat tear) works? Would they trade Jazz?
The Diamondbacks probably don't want to give up on Brandon Pfaadt or Druw Jones despite their 2023 setbacks. I don't think Alec Thomas or Ryne Nelson would be interesting to us.
The Cubs have a bunch of prospects in the top 100 (CF Pete Crow-Armstrong, 2B James Triantos, LHSPs Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks, OF Kevin Alcantara) but aren't likely to bet this hard on an outside bid for the playoffs. One guy who might fit here is Alcantara, a 6'6" outfielder (and former Yankee prospect, via the Rizzo trade), who is in A+ and already on their 40-man.
The Reds are a nice story and I'd love to see them go for it, but their odds are around 30 percent. Noelvi Marte and Cam Collier would be the targets here, I'd think, but I don't think they do it. There's also Edwin Arroyo, who was the #52 prospect last year, but has fallen off.
The Padres should sell, but might not. Dylan Lesko (still 19, returning from TJS) would be an interesting gamble. I don't think we'd be interested in catching prospect Ethan Salas. On their roster, a Cronenworth swap might make sense for both teams, but I doubt they move him four months after extending him.
Among American League teams, I think Minnesota is probably the only one we'd deal with. I want to say they're a lock to win the Central (and therefore not our competition), but they always make it interesting and just got swept by the Royals. They've got a very good pitching staff and wouldn't seem to need too much help, but maybe they're ready to move on from Royce Lewis?
_____
To recap, I see only a handful of scenarios where a Paxton deal would seem to make sense, with value consistent with the Giolito/Scherzer trades. (I'm also leaving aside the question of who would replace Paxton in our rotation, if we do a complex sell-and-buy, though I think E-Rod has some merit.)
Milwaukee receives Paxton and Verdugo, Boston receives Jacob Misiorowski, Tyler Black and Luis Urias
Misiorowski is a "high ceiling/high variance" starter who has moved quickly through the Brewers system, and Black's plate discipline is terrific. The Sox also get a chance to reboot Urias into a starting 2B. This is interesting to me but I think it's too high variability.
Los Angeles Dodgers receive James Paxton, Boston receives 2B/DH Miguel Vargas
This one makes sense to me. The Dodgers desperately need pitching and have a little bit of a surplus with these bat-first prospects (Vargas and Busch). Vargas can play a bit of 2B, 3B and LF, but he's more likely a long-term DH, a solid right-handed bat with a great approach and plate discipline, and who would be a doubles machine.
Miami receives James Paxton, Boston receives Trevor Rogers
Paxton would join Alcantara, Garrett and Luzardo as a great 1-4. The Marlins have too many young pitchers, and more (Perez, Meyer, Eder, Fulton) on the way. This swaps out one who wouldn't help them this year, but could settle in nicely for the next three years for us.
Chicago Cubs receive Paxton for Kevin Alcantara
If the Cubs go for it, I could see this happening. Alcantara is pretty high variance himself and had a rough early '23, but has been a monster over the last month after some changes at the plate. The fact that he's on the 40-man and still in A+ might make him more available.
Minnesota receives Paxton for Royce Lewis
I don't think the Twins want to move on from Lewis (who is working his way back from an oblique injury), but he's positionless in a Polanco-Correa-Julien infield and persistent injuries have left questions.
All of these guys are compelling targets, though each has some question marks about their long-term value. I think that corresponds well with Paxton, who has been the game's 21st most valuable SP since his May 12th debut, but is seen as an injury risk.
Thee are all great but I just can’t see any scenario of Paxton being traded. It’s the old bird in the hand…. thing. You just take your best starter out of the rotation and bring in a replacement and it’s a highly unpredictable situation. Granted starters are pretty unpredictable as is…. But it’s a trickle-down effect on the whole team.
A team like this that’s well constructed and has good reinforcements on the way shouldn’t be shaking things like that. At most they need tinkering.
ideas like these look like trying to be clever to me. If theywere 4-5 games out (and not playing well with no hope on the horizon then…. Yes. Absolutely
I agree that these are all great value for Paxton, but do any of them improve the team's ability to make the playoffs in 2023? They feel like white-flag trades to me.
Rosenthal said that "the big question revolves around James Paxton, they could get a premium package in return, but the Red Sox would need to replace him somehow."
I agree that it'd be difficult, and of course it's unlikely, but I'm not sure it's a white-flag scenario if it's coupled with a big buy. That post only attempts to explore what Paxton might reasonably return from a finite group of NL contenders.
My ideal scenario is something like Houck, Blaze Jordan and Angel Bastardo/Hunter Dobbins for Flaherty, Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman (equal on BTV), which would make flipping Verdugo and Paxton a lot easier. Excluding whatever players we'd get in those deals, that trade with the Cardinals would leave us with:
Rotation: Sale, Bello, Flaherty, Whitlock, Crawford, Pivetta
Duran - CF
Yoshida - LF
Turner - DH
Devers - 3B
Story - SS
Casas - 1B
Carlson - RF
Edman - 2B
Wong - C
I hope Chaim speaks to the team when they return to Fenway if he makes no additional moves, so the players (Kenley, Raffy) recognize that the returning players supersede any rentals he could have acquired.
If you're going to deal Paxton, IMO, then you might as well just sell generally. If Chaim is in the buy/sell mode, maybe keep the guys who would be essential to a playoff run now, and deal from redundancy (deal Duvall or Verdugo, keep Paxton).
Well, I’m not advocating this, but if we’d gotten under the cap last year, you could leverage our financial muscle by sending (cheap) Paxton out for a haul and bringing (expensive) Verlander in for a lesser package.
I will drive Paxton to the airport and chauffeur Vargas for free for 16 months if Bloom can trade Paxton for my binky Vargas but it’s not happening.
I kind of think they are more apt to move Pivetta. Probably giving him the start tonight as a "show it to the world" you can do it as a starter
He's been better than Paxton for awhile now (not an indictment of Paxton) and has another fairly cheap year of team control. Why would they move him? He's helping them this year and probably next year.
Civale got moved for a prospect from TB, ranked 37th overall by MLB Pipeline.
Is Cleveland really packing it in while they are just 1/2 game out of first place in the (really bad) AL Central?
Not advocating that they should ship Pivetta, but I found it odd that they changed it up yesterday and didn't give him bulk work but then to start him tonight with Bello ready to go on full rest. So it "feels" like a move mgmt might make if they are entertaining the notion of selling high on him. Nothing more than spideysense on my part
FWIW, Bello has pitched on extra rest more than he has pitched on "full" rest.
View: https://twitter.com/peteabe/status/1686163989825478663?s=46
Alex Cora: "I’ve been in touch with Chaim the whole day about certain things and hopefully something happens.
"If it happens, we’re going to be OK. If nothing happens, we’re going to be OK, too. I do believe this team is a really good baseball team playing good baseball.”
Alex Cora: "I’ve been in touch with Chaim the whole day about certain things and hopefully something happens.
"If it happens, we’re going to be OK. If nothing happens, we’re going to be OK, too. I do believe this team is a really good baseball team playing good baseball.”
I don't think this is them packing it in. They got a serious prospect at a position of need for the future, and they just traded for Thor, who makes his debut for them today. They should also be getting one or more of Battenfield, McKenzie and Bieber back between now and the middle of September.
Civale has a good ERA, but his peripherals, especially his K and BB rates, scream at me that he is going to regress at some point, possibly soon. I think this was a good deal for them.
I preface this as more casual Sox observer/fan than the ride or dies, so I’m hoping not to get flamed.
My feeling is if the likely outcome is just squeaking into the playoffs with no expectation to win it all, make the moves that set you up for the next couple years. I was on team sell last year (not re-litigating that) and would be this year too. The expiring guys all seem like they would bolster the future in trades, which seems to be bright.
Some have mentioned that hurting getting future free agents but I gotta think if you’re a guy only getting one year offers, a big market team that is willing to move you to a contender if they aren’t in it and give you the playoff exposure is pretty good, money being equal.
Just going on the record and $100 to the Jimmy Fund when I’m proven wrong and they win the WS.
My feeling is if the likely outcome is just squeaking into the playoffs with no expectation to win it all, make the moves that set you up for the next couple years. I was on team sell last year (not re-litigating that) and would be this year too. The expiring guys all seem like they would bolster the future in trades, which seems to be bright.
Some have mentioned that hurting getting future free agents but I gotta think if you’re a guy only getting one year offers, a big market team that is willing to move you to a contender if they aren’t in it and give you the playoff exposure is pretty good, money being equal.
Just going on the record and $100 to the Jimmy Fund when I’m proven wrong and they win the WS.
I just don’t see them doing anything substantial tomorrow that can drastically improve this squad before the deadline. I sure as hell do not want to see them ship any of the big pieces from the farm out unless someone becomes available that wasn’t on the radar.
See what guys like Story, Whitlock, Houck, Sale can do when they return. The honest truth is that this group is too inconsistent, makes some of the worst base running decisions and to top it off - awful defense. Those things are momentum killers. A death sentence.
That September schedule is pretty brutal and this is a very flawed team. On paper, August isn’t too bad schedule wise, but this team plays down to mediocre/bad competition.
Make the big moves this off-season. Sell what you can get a good return on now,.
See what guys like Story, Whitlock, Houck, Sale can do when they return. The honest truth is that this group is too inconsistent, makes some of the worst base running decisions and to top it off - awful defense. Those things are momentum killers. A death sentence.
That September schedule is pretty brutal and this is a very flawed team. On paper, August isn’t too bad schedule wise, but this team plays down to mediocre/bad competition.
Make the big moves this off-season. Sell what you can get a good return on now,.
