An interesting projection of a simple bases on balls deducted from strikeouts by Jeff Zimmerman at Fangraphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/simple-2015-pitcher-rankings/
Here are the top pitchers:
I have the top 100 pitchers ranked. What I look for now is tiers are any pitchers group together. I like to get one of these pitchers before the talent level drops off.
Name Team K-BB Age IP GS G SO BB K/9 BB/9
Clayton Kershaw LAN 181 27 201 32 32 226 45 10.1 2.0
Chris Sale CHA 171 26 192 30 30 220 49 10.3 2.3
Max Scherzer FA 166 30 189 32 32 219 53 10.4 2.5
Yu Darvish TEX 155 28 192 30 30 224 69 10.5 3.2
Felix Hernandez SEA 155 29 192 30 30 197 42 9.3 2.0
Madison Bumgarner SFN 153 25 201 32 32 203 51 9.1 2.3
Stephen Strasburg WAS 152 26 182 29 29 198 46 9.8 2.3
Yusmeiro Petit SFN 150 30 208 30 65 198 48 8.6 2.1
Corey Kluber CLE 149 29 192 30 30 197 48 9.2 2.2
David Price DET 142 29 192 30 30 179 37 8.4 1.7
Matt Harvey NYN 136 26 173 27 27 185 49 9.7 2.6
Zack Greinke LAN 136 31 192 31 31 181 45 8.5 2.1
Masahiro Tanaka NYA 134 26 192 31 31 171 38 8.0 1.8
Cole Hamels PHI 129 31 182 29 29 177 48 8.7 2.4
Jon Lester FA 128 31 195 32 32 180 52 8.3 2.4
James Shields FA 125 33 201 32 32 175 49 7.8 2.2
Johnny Cueto CIN 125 29 182 29 29 175 49 8.6 2.4
Phil Hughes MIN 125 29 192 30 30 160 35 7.5 1.6
Adam Wainwright SLN 123 33 201 32 32 167 44 7.5 2.0
Ian Kennedy SDN 122 30 192 30 30 186 64 8.7 3.0
Jordan Zimmermann WAS 120 29 182 30 30 155 35 7.7 1.7
Jose Fernandez MIA 120 22 144 23 23 166 46 10.4 2.9
Jeff Samardzija OAK 118 30 192 30 30 171 52 8.0 2.5
Danny Salazar CLE 118 25 173 29 29 178 59 9.3 3.1
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA 117 34 192 31 31 155 38 7.3 1.8
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAN 116 28 182 31 31 160 45 7.9 2.2
Mike Fiers MIL 115 30 163 29 29 160 45 8.8 2.5
Marcus Stroman TOR 115 24 192 31 31 168 53 7.9 2.5
Collin McHugh HOU 112 28 192 31 31 170 58 8.0 2.7
Garrett Richards LAA 110 27 192 30 30 174 63 8.2 3.0
By this Projection, relying on Steamer, Ian Kennedy is surprisingly competitive just below Cueto and Wainwright and just above Zimmerman, Fernandez, Samardzija and Salazar according to these predictions. Cespedes for Kennedy looks good from this perspective. Buchholz, Kelly and Kennedy (the latter two sounding like Boston pols) wouldn't be bad. If they can't sign Lester, then a more cost effective free agent or tryouts for the last two rotation spots aren't the end of the world. Overpaying, particularly for too many years for older pitching, almost never works out. Lester was a special case but for 7 years and more than $150 million, I'd pass.