Tyreek Hill - Special Appearance on the Maury Show next week

[wilked]

Today he has 1,481 yards with 119 receptions (12 YPC) and has 12 TDs to date

Dolphins' Tyreek Hill remains on 2K-yard pace with huge day - ESPN

He's the type of player that will want this record and I think he may get there. At this point needs to average 130 YPG to achieve it, more than the 123 YPG pace he is on. In the way would be an injury risk (same for any player) but also a worry might be that their final game is meaningless and he sits. They are all but assured to win the division and lock it up early (three games ahead with 4 games to go), but the fight for top seed *should* go to the final week.

It's almost certain to be a three team race for top seed / bye - Dolphins, Chiefs, Ravens

Dolphins: 9-3 (lost to Chiefs, play Ravens week 16)
Ravens : 9-3 (play Dolphins week 16)
Chiefs: 8-4 (beat Dolphins)

Current record holder is Calvin Johnson with 1,964 yards in 2012, with Kupp hitting 1,947 a couple years ago most recently.

A good breakdown of what makes him so good as a receiver here
NFL Film Session: What Makes Tyreek Hill So Special - YouTube

Rare combination of speed, route-running ability and hands is the general story. I think most receivers strive for two, it's not often you get someone with the triad.

Before others chime in let's all acknowledge he appears to be a pretty awful guy with repeated violent incidents. I won't be rooting for him to achieve it, but then he probably could not care less whether I root for him or not - he's still going after the record.

So if able to put the above aside, what does everyone think - will he get there?

I looked at Kupp's 2021 season. At this mark he had 1,516 yards (35 yards ahead of Hill right now). His next four games were 64, 96, 163, 108 yards. I looked at that last game of the season (34-14 win vs Bears) and Goff was trying to feed him late in the game, likely to get the record. In the end you just run out of time, which might be what happens to Hill.

 

[Justthetippett]

Today he has 1,481 yards with 119 receptions (12 YPC) and has 12 TDs to date

Dolphins' Tyreek Hill remains on 2K-yard pace with huge day - ESPN

He's the type of player that will want this record and I think he may get there. At this point needs to average 130 YPG to achieve it, more than the 123 YPG pace he is on. In the way would be an injury risk (same for any player) but also a worry might be that their final game is meaningless and he sits. They are all but assured to win the division and lock it up early (three games ahead with 4 games to go), but the fight for top seed *should* go to the final week.

It's almost certain to be a three team race for top seed / bye - Dolphins, Chiefs, Ravens

Dolphins: 9-3 (lost to Chiefs, play Ravens week 16)
Ravens : 9-3 (play Dolphins week 16)
Chiefs: 8-4 (beat Dolphins)

Current record holder is Calvin Johnson with 1,964 yards in 2012, with Kupp hitting 1,947 a couple years ago most recently.

A good breakdown of what makes him so good as a receiver here
NFL Film Session: What Makes Tyreek Hill So Special - YouTube

Rare combination of speed, route-running ability and hands is the general story. I think most receivers strive for two, it's not often you get someone with the triad.

Before others chime in let's all acknowledge he appears to be a pretty awful guy with repeated violent incidents. I won't be rooting for him to achieve it, but then he probably could not care less whether I root for him or not - he's still going after the record.

So if able to put the above aside, what does everyone think - will he get there?

I looked at Kupp's 2021 season. At this mark he had 1,516 yards (35 yards ahead of Hill right now). His next four games were 64, 96, 163, 108 yards. I looked at that last game of the season (34-14 win vs Bears) and Goff was trying to feed him late in the game, likely to get the record. In the end you just run out of time, which might be what happens to Hill.

They have 5 games left, so the math looks even better for him. He'll get there but he'll only be the first. I think this becomes sort of an annual thing for the top guys in the coming years.

 

[johnmd20]

They have 5 games left, so the math looks even better for him. He'll get there but he'll only be the first. I think this becomes sort of an annual thing for the top guys in the coming years.

I don’t agree. This won’t be normal, ever. Any 2000 yard receiving season will be historic, even with 17 games. It requires a perfect storm of team, schedule, game scripts, and health.

Last year Jefferson was on pace like Tyreke is this season and he didn’t come close. If I had to bet, I would say Tyreke won’t make it, either.

 

[wilked]

They have 5 games left, so the math looks even better for him. He'll get there but he'll only be the first. I think this becomes sort of an annual thing for the top guys in the coming years.

Ahh, brainfart - thanks

Obviously that extra game plays into the significance of the record as well vs pre 17 game schedule stats

 

[wilked]

To clarify then, Kupp managed 1,947 in 17 games while Johnson hit 1,964 in 16 games (2,087 equivalent for a 17 game pace). The third place player (Julio Jones, 1,871) wouldn't get there even if pro-rated up to 17 games.

 

[koufax32]

I see 93 receptions on 127 targets. Yards match though.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/3116406/tyreek-hill

 

[glennhoffmania]

I agree. I don't see McDaniel putting the record over the team's chances to win the SB. They'll want to keep him healthy.

The 17th game needs to be considered for any counting stat record going forward. If he gets it but averages less per game than Johnson or Cupp I don't think it means all that much.

 

[wilked]

I agree. I don't see McDaniel putting the record over the team's chances to win the SB. They'll want to keep him healthy.

The 17th game needs to be considered for any counting stat record going forward. If he gets it but averages less per game than Johnson or Cupp I don't think it means all that much.

wouldn’t apply to Kupp as he had 17 games for his number. The point w Johnson stands tho

 

[luckiestman]

What about Charley Hennigan 1961, 1746 in a14 game season. That’s 2120 over 17

 

[glennhoffmania]

wouldn’t apply to Kupp as he had 17 games for his number. The point w Johnson stands tho

Oops. Yeah, brain fart by me.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I hope the mother fucker gets to 1,999 yards and his father comes out of the crowd, WWE style and breaks both of his arms.

 

[Euclis20]

It only took CJ 16 games, but he also played for a team that went 4-12. Fair or not, personal records feel like they should mean less when the team isn't competitive. Hill is on the exact opposite end of that scale. In addition to playing for a team competing for the bye, he should probably win league MVP.

 

[8slim]

I’ve been rooting for a horrific, career ending injury for this chump for years.

 

[NobodyInteresting]

I've been watching this since week 1, when he went off for 215 yards. His worst 5-game stretch of the season so far (games 7-11) generated 510 yards. My guess is that if he doesn't get hurt he'll get it.

Couldn't have happened to a nicer fella. /s

 

[rodderick]

Dallas has a slight lead over Miami in scoring and the same record, while Dak is playing at an elite level. So what's the argument for giving the MVP to Hill and not him?

 

[sodenj5]

Dallas has a slight lead over Miami in scoring and the same record, while Dak is playing at an elite level. So what's the argument for giving the MVP to Hill and not him?

IMO, Tyreek is the MVP. Mahomes is having a “down year” and no one else is really playing insanely well. Tyreek is going to cross a threshold that’s never been crossed by any receiver in history.

That’s MVP worthy.

He’s going to get the record. He’s been talking about it for two years now, and may have gotten it last year if Tua didn’t get hurt. The offense is centered around Tyreek in a way that no other offense is in the NFL.

Also, there’s at least a chance he may need to get it in 16 games. If Miami has the 1 seed locked up and that game versus Buffalo means nothing, I don’t know that they risk rolling the starters out there for a full half or a game to try and get Tyreek 100+ in that scenario.

 

[rodderick]

IMO, Tyreek is the MVP. Mahomes is having a “down year” and no one else is really playing insanely well. Tyreek is going to cross a threshold that’s never been crossed by any receiver in history.

That’s MVP worthy.

He’s going to get the record. He’s been talking about it for two years now, and may have gotten it last year if Tua didn’t get hurt. The offense is centered around Tyreek in a way that no other offense is in the NFL.

Also, there’s at least a chance he may need to get it in 16 games. If Miami has the 1 seed locked up and that game versus Buffalo means nothing, I don’t know that they risk rolling the starters out there for a full half or a game to try and get Tyreek 100+ in that scenario.

Eh, the record is only meaningful if he comes out of it with the yards per game record as well. And yeah, no other offense is as centered around a single receiver, but a whole lot of offenses are more QB centric than the Dolphins are Tyreek centric.

 

[LoLsapien]

So, no joke, is there a way to block or hide threads? I literally don't want to see this guy's name show up when I go look at the list of posts

 

[johnmd20]

Eh, the record is only meaningful if he comes out of it with the yards per game record as well. And yeah, no other offense is as centered around a single receiver, but a whole lot of offenses are more QB centric than the Dolphins are Tyreek centric.

So put an asterisk on the record? Come on. If he gets the record, it’s the record. That said, he won’t get 2000 yards this year.

 

[BaseballJones]

IMO, Tyreek is the MVP. Mahomes is having a “down year” and no one else is really playing insanely well. Tyreek is going to cross a threshold that’s never been crossed by any receiver in history.

That’s MVP worthy.

No one else is really playing insanely well?

Dak's stats right now: 288-411 (70.1%), 3,234 yds, 7.9 y/a, 26 td, 6 int, 108.3 rating, 2 rushing td

He's on pace for: 408-582 (70.1%), 4,581 yds, 37 td, 8 int, 3 rushing td (so 40 total td vs. just 8 int)

All that for a team that's 9-3 and in the hunt for the #1 seed in the NFC. Oh, and it's Dallas, which counts for something.

He's having a tremendous season. I mean, what part of 70% completions, 40 total td vs. just 8 int, for a top team in his conference, isn't "playing insanely well"?

 

[NobodyInteresting]

No one else is really playing insanely well?

Dak's stats right now: 288-411 (70.1%), 3,234 yds, 7.9 y/a, 26 td, 6 int, 108.3 rating, 2 rushing td

He's on pace for: 408-582 (70.1%), 4,581 yds, 37 td, 8 int, 3 rushing td (so 40 total td vs. just 8 int)

All that for a team that's 9-3 and in the hunt for the #1 seed in the NFC. Oh, and it's Dallas, which counts for something.

He's having a tremendous season. I mean, what part of 70% completions, 40 total td vs. just 8 int, for a top team in his conference, isn't "playing insanely well"?

Disqualified on the grounds that he shouts "here we go" every snap in a voice that sounds enough like Fozzie Bear that my girlfriend starts laughing at him. The MVP must maintain the NFLs taking-itself-too-seriously image, surely?

More seriously - I agree with you, Dak is a totally plausible candidate right now.

 

[sodenj5]

No one else is really playing insanely well?

Dak's stats right now: 288-411 (70.1%), 3,234 yds, 7.9 y/a, 26 td, 6 int, 108.3 rating, 2 rushing td

He's on pace for: 408-582 (70.1%), 4,581 yds, 37 td, 8 int, 3 rushing td (so 40 total td vs. just 8 int)

All that for a team that's 9-3 and in the hunt for the #1 seed in the NFC. Oh, and it's Dallas, which counts for something.

He's having a tremendous season. I mean, what part of 70% completions, 40 total td vs. just 8 int, for a top team in his conference, isn't "playing insanely well"?

He’s playing very well right now. He’s a candidate for sure. Those numbers are great and Tua is probably going to finish with numbers similar to Dak’s. I don’t think Dak is head and shoulders above Tua or Hurts or Purdy, or Mahomes, and that’s his problem.

Maybe Dak finishes the season on the same pace he’s on right now and ends up being that guy standing above the rest of the QBs. I would say right now he isn’t.

Hill is on pace to do something no one else ever has. When the QBs are muddled and no one has taken a big step forward, it leaves the door open for someone besides a QB to win the award.

 

[BaseballJones]

He’s playing very well right now. He’s a candidate for sure. Those numbers are great and Tua is probably going to finish with numbers similar to Dak’s. I don’t think Dak is head and shoulders above Tua or Hurts or Purdy, or Mahomes, and that’s his problem.

Maybe Dak finishes the season on the same pace he’s on right now and ends up being that guy standing above the rest of the QBs. I would say right now he isn’t.

Hill is on pace to do something no one else ever has. When the QBs are muddled and no one has taken a big step forward, it leaves the door open for someone besides a QB to win the award.

QBs can be muddled - as in, there's a group of them with similar numbers so it's hard to differentiate one from another - but that doesn't mean that a WR is the league MVP. The QBs would have to be muddled - and not playing great - while a guy at another position plays historically great, in order for another position to win the MVP. Hill certainly fits the "guy at another position playing historically great" piece, but the first part isn't true - there are several QBs playing great.

 

[wilked]

If a WR can't win MVP with a line of 2XXX yards and say 18 TDs, that's probably another way of saying a WR just can't win an MVP.

There will always be QBs who are having a great year.

 

[Average Game James]

If Hill is on the cusp of getting to 2000 yards and no QB has clearly separated from the pack as we near the end of the season, I could see something akin to the Marcus Smart DPOY campaign maybe pushing Hill to the award. If the Dolphins end up getting the 1 seed, I think Hill has a good case. He’s what makes that offense tick. He’s still a relative long shot but odds are down to +1600 from +4500 a few weeks ago.

 

[Hoya81]

If Hill is on the cusp of getting to 2000 yards and no QB has clearly separated from the pack as we near the end of the season, I could see something akin to the Marcus Smart DPOY campaign maybe pushing Hill to the award. If the Dolphins end up getting the 1 seed, I think Hill has a good case. He’s what makes that offense tick. He’s still a relative long shot but odds are down to +1600 from +4500 a few weeks ago.

Either way, it’s probably worthwhile for the league to consider introducing individual position awards, similar to the college game.

 

[rodderick]

If a WR can't win MVP with a line of 2XXX yards and say 18 TDs, that's probably another way of saying a WR just can't win an MVP.

There will always be QBs who are having a great year.

I'm more than fine with this. If the award shifts from Most Valuable Player to Most Outstanding Performer, then sure, feel free to give it to a record breaking receiver.

I mean, K-Rod set the all time saves record and didn't win Cy Young either in a year in whcih Cliff Lee was really good but no AL starting pitcher was extraordinary. QBs are simply inherently more valuable than receivers.

 

[DJnVa]

I hope the mother fucker gets to 1,999 yards and his father comes out of the crowd, WWE style and breaks both of his arms.

This is where I am.

 

[Kliq]

CMC has 1,461 total yards and 17 TDs so far this season, so one would have to think he is right in the conversation with Hill as far as non-QB candidates go.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

The offense is centered around Tyreek in a way that no other offense is in the NFL.

It's definitely challenging for other teams to center their offense around Tyreek.

 

[Marciano490]

He’ll definitely need to catch some breaks to set the record. Of course, he’s always capable of snapping off some 200 yard games down the stretch. Twist my arm, though, and I’d guess the mark remains unbroken.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

The offense is centered around Tyreek in a way that no other offense is in the NFL.

Well, except for the fact they are #2 in rushing yards, #1 in YPC (and this one isn't even close) and #1 in rushing touchdowns, and they have another 1st round receiver on pace for about 1,100 yards.

That said, Tyreek is definitely in the MVP conversation, but right now, I'm taking Dak. That could change any given week though. Tua isn't close to Dak, IMO. Tua's got 15 total turnovers to 6 for Dak on the season (In addition to Tua's 11 picks, he's got 10 fumbles with 4 of them lost to Dak's 1 fumble and zero lost).

 

[Euclis20]

Well, except for the fact they are #2 in rushing yards, #1 in YPC (and this one isn't even close) and #1 in rushing touchdowns, and they have another 1st round receiver on pace for about 1,100 yards.

That said, Tyreek is definitely in the MVP conversation, but right now, I'm taking Dak. That could change any given week though. Tua isn't close to Dak, IMO. Tua's got 15 total turnovers to 6 for Dak on the season (In addition to Tua's 11 picks, he's got 10 fumbles with 4 of them lost to Dak's 1 fumble and zero lost).

This stuff is all connected. In the same sad way that the Pats running game has suffered due to the total lack of a deep passing game, the Dolphins rushing attack frequently sees an empty box because teams are so concerned with Hill (Waddle also benefits from teams frequently doubling Hill). If someone doesn't think Hill deserves it because a WR simply never deserves it (or if Hill specifically doesn't deserve it because he's a giant piece of shit), I'd be fine with that. It's just impossible to overstate the degree to which Hill impacts the Dolphins offense (far more so than CMC does in SF, I think), and if they finish with a top 3 offense and win the division, he'd be my pick.

Dak is having a great season, but giving it to a borderline top 10 QB having a career year for a team currently not even winning their division feels off to me. We've seen other QBs having similar careers win MVP (Cam Newton and Matt Ryan, in recent history), but they at least won their divisions (and it looks better in hindsight when both guys at least got to the super bowl), and were having more impressive seasons statistically than Dak is so far in 2023. If the criteria for MVP has turned into "most impressive stats for a playoff QB" than the vote will probably go to Dak.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

This stuff is all connected. In the same sad way that the Pats running game has suffered due to the total lack of a deep passing game, the Dolphins rushing attack frequently sees an empty box because teams are so concerned with Hill (Waddle also benefits from teams frequently doubling Hill). If someone doesn't think Hill deserves it because a WR simply never deserves it (or if Hill specifically doesn't deserve it because he's a giant piece of shit), I'd be fine with that. It's just impossible to overstate the degree to which Hill impacts the Dolphins offense (far more so than CMC does in SF, I think), and if they finish with a top 3 offense and win the division, he'd be my pick.

Dak is having a great season, but giving it to a borderline top 10 QB having a career year for a team currently not even winning their division feels off to me. We've seen other QBs having similar careers win MVP (Cam Newton and Matt Ryan, in recent history), but they at least won their divisions (and it looks better in hindsight when both guys at least got to the super bowl), and were having more impressive seasons statistically than Dak is so far in 2023. If the criteria for MVP has turned into "most impressive stats for a playoff QB" than the vote will probably go to Dak.

There is another way to think about it. Which team would struggle more, Miami without Hill, or Dallas without Dak? That's how I view valuable. Now if Dak goes out and screws up a few weeks, I'd have no issue with Hill getting it, but as of right now, my vote would be Dak.

 

[Euclis20]

There is another way to think about it. Which team would struggle more, Miami without Hill, or Dallas without Dak? That's how I view valuable. Now if Dak goes out and screws up a few weeks, I'd have no issue with Hill getting it, but as of right now, my vote would be Dak.

Very fair, and it's basically the "pro bowl level QB on a playoff team always wins MVP" argument. QB is by far the most important position, and unless there is a really good backup in place, the team is SOL if the starter goes down for any length of time. Hell, even Miami may be in more trouble if Tua goes down than if Hill does. Depends on how one feels about Mike White.

 

[sodenj5]

There is another way to think about it. Which team would struggle more, Miami without Hill, or Dallas without Dak? That's how I view valuable. Now if Dak goes out and screws up a few weeks, I'd have no issue with Hill getting it, but as of right now, my vote would be Dak.

I mean, this is the case for basically any above average QB. If QB X misses time, will their backup suck? Probably.

That’s in part because playing QB is hard, but also because teams put everything into a singular QB, whereas Waddle and Hill likely get pretty close to equal practice reps, and gameplan consideration.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I mean, this is the case for basically any above average QB. If QB X misses time, will their backup suck? Probably.

That’s in part because playing QB is hard, but also because teams put everything into a singular QB, whereas Waddle and Hill likely get pretty close to equal practice reps, and gameplan consideration.

Yeah, but it's not just any above average QB play who gets his team into the playoffs. Nobody pre-injury was talking about Trevor Lawrence getting MVP consideration, nobody is talking about even Josh Allen or really Mahomes at this point. Frankly, I don't even have Purdy or Hurts above Tyreek, but Dak is having an amazing, MVP level year. He's got Ceedee Lamb, but he doesn't have the running game that Miami has, he doesn't have a #2 as good as Waddle. He's simply playing at an MVP level. Baltimore would be fucked if Lamar Jackson went down too, but I'm not putting him above Tyreek either.

If every QB was having a season comparable to Dak, instead of Dak putting up MVP level numbers, on a top tier team, I'd have no problem making the argument for Tyreek (and again, there is plenty of time left for this to change for each of them), but as we type today, I just think Dak has not only had the best season of any QB in the league, he's got his team with a shot at the #1 seed in the toughest conference, and arguably toughest division in football. He's really only played one bad game, and one sort of bad game all season (the Arizona loss). Their third loss, he played incredible against Philly. He's lost almost 20% of the snaps this season to Cooper Rush because they've blown out so many teams, which has depressed his stats even further.

I think the best comparison we have right now to this race between Hill and Dak is 2012, when Adrian Peterson beat out Manning for MVP. AP had almost 2,100 yards rushing that year (131/game) and singlehandedly carried a terrible Minnesota team to a 10-6 record and a playoff berth with Christian Ponder at QB. Their offense was 14th in points that year, their defense was also 14th. The year before, they were 3-13, the year after, they were 5-10-1.

That was a team that was straight up carried by one guy, and he won the award. Right now, Dak is on pace to have better numbers than Manning had that year, and I just don't think Tyreek, as great as he's been (and don't get me wrong, he's been fucking great), but I think the baseline to win MVP at a skill position is a season like AP's. Dude averaged 6.0ypc for 350 carries against 7-8 man boxes that knew he was getting the ball. He was possessed. And Manning just didn't have a good enough season to overcome that. I think Dak is having that kind of season to this point though.

 

[BaseballJones]

This stuff is all connected. In the same sad way that the Pats running game has suffered due to the total lack of a deep passing game, the Dolphins rushing attack frequently sees an empty box because teams are so concerned with Hill (Waddle also benefits from teams frequently doubling Hill). If someone doesn't think Hill deserves it because a WR simply never deserves it (or if Hill specifically doesn't deserve it because he's a giant piece of shit), I'd be fine with that. It's just impossible to overstate the degree to which Hill impacts the Dolphins offense (far more so than CMC does in SF, I think), and if they finish with a top 3 offense and win the division, he'd be my pick.

Dak is having a great season, but giving it to a borderline top 10 QB having a career year for a team currently not even winning their division feels off to me. We've seen other QBs having similar careers win MVP (Cam Newton and Matt Ryan, in recent history), but they at least won their divisions (and it looks better in hindsight when both guys at least got to the super bowl), and were having more impressive seasons statistically than Dak is so far in 2023. If the criteria for MVP has turned into "most impressive stats for a playoff QB" than the vote will probably go to Dak.

Dak's season is very much on par with lots of other QBs who have won MVPs. Who cares if for his career he's a borderline top 10 QB? That literally is irrelevant to whether he's the MVP for THIS year.

 

[BigSoxFan]

This stuff is all connected. In the same sad way that the Pats running game has suffered due to the total lack of a deep passing game, the Dolphins rushing attack frequently sees an empty box because teams are so concerned with Hill (Waddle also benefits from teams frequently doubling Hill). If someone doesn't think Hill deserves it because a WR simply never deserves it (or if Hill specifically doesn't deserve it because he's a giant piece of shit), I'd be fine with that. It's just impossible to overstate the degree to which Hill impacts the Dolphins offense (far more so than CMC does in SF, I think), and if they finish with a top 3 offense and win the division, he'd be my pick.

Dak is having a great season, but giving it to a borderline top 10 QB having a career year for a team currently not even winning their division feels off to me. We've seen other QBs having similar careers win MVP (Cam Newton and Matt Ryan, in recent history), but they at least won their divisions (and it looks better in hindsight when both guys at least got to the super bowl), and were having more impressive seasons statistically than Dak is so far in 2023. If the criteria for MVP has turned into "most impressive stats for a playoff QB" than the vote will probably go to Dak.

I really don’t understand your logic. The 2016 Falcons went 11-5. The Cowboys are currently 9-3 and will probably finish 12-5 or so. Why does Matt Ryan deserve more credit just because he played in a shittier division in 2016?

Dak is absolutely playing at an MVP level but he has work to do to win the award, IMO The Cowboys really don’t have any impressive wins so Dak needs to get 2-3 wins in this tough stretch coming up, I think.

 

[Euclis20]

Dak's season is very much on par with lots of other QBs who have won MVPs. Who cares if for his career he's a borderline top 10 QB? That literally is irrelevant to whether he's the MVP for THIS year.

It's relevant only in that the year isn't over yet, and I don't know if he can keep doing this (I have no such worries about Hill, who has made the pro bowl every year of his career and is a 4x all pro). We've still got almost 30% of the season left, and the Cowboys are 0-2 against teams with winning records. They've got the 2nd hardest remaining strength of schedule (their next 4 games are against Philly, Buffalo, Miami and Detroit). If Dallas goes 3-1 or better and Dak keeps playing at this statistical pace, it will be hard to deny him the award. I'm skeptical, we'll see.

I really don’t understand your logic. The 2016 Falcons went 11-5. The Cowboys are currently 9-3 and will probably finish 12-5 or so. Why does Matt Ryan deserve more credit just because he played in a shittier division in 2016?

Dak is absolutely playing at an MVP level but he has work to do to win the award, IMO The Cowboys really don’t have any impressive wins so Dak needs to get 2-3 wins in this tough stretch coming up, I think.

I think 12-5 is pretty realistic for them, which is slightly better than 11-5, but a division title counts more than a wildcard spot (shittier division sure, but life isn't fair, it's ok to admit that luck and circumstance plays a role in these awards). Taking a step back from wins and losses, that Falcons team was definitely better than their record. They were 2nd in the league in point differential, 2nd in SRS and 3rd in DVOA. They earned a 1st round bye and were 6.5 point favorites in both of their playoff games prior to the Super Bowl.

Beyond team success, Ryan's 2016 was far more statistically impressive. Dak is leading the league in TDs, but Ryan led the league in TD%, QBR, passer rating, and basically every stat that measures yards per attempt and yards per catch. He led the league in AV, and had the 15th best season ever by passing DYAR (and the only guys in front of him are Brady, Manning, Marino, Brees, Rodgers and Mahomes). Dak is currently 6th in passing DYAR this year alone. Prorating Dak's season out to the full 17 games, he'd have fewer TDs, fewer passing yards and more interceptions than Ryan despite playing the extra game. Ryan's season was impressive from a historical standpoint, but other than TDs, Dak isn't even at the top of the list in anything this year.

I 100% agree that he has work to do, but he has a clear path to the award (probably more so than anyone else). Just saying that is incredible based on where everyone ranked him heading into the season.

 

[rodderick]

It's relevant only in that the year isn't over yet, and I don't know if he can keep doing this (I have no such worries about Hill, who has made the pro bowl every year of his career and is a 4x all pro). We've still got almost 30% of the season left, and the Cowboys are 0-2 against teams with winning records. They've got the 2nd hardest remaining strength of schedule (their next 4 games are against Philly, Buffalo, Miami and Detroit). If Dallas goes 3-1 or better and Dak keeps playing at this statistical pace, it will be hard to deny him the award. I'm skeptical, we'll see.



I think 12-5 is pretty realistic for them, which is slightly better than 11-5, but a division title counts more than a wildcard spot (shittier division sure, but life isn't fair, it's ok to admit that luck and circumstance plays a role in these awards). Taking a step back from wins and losses, that Falcons team was definitely better than their record. They were 2nd in the league in point differential, 2nd in SRS and 3rd in DVOA. They earned a 1st round bye and were 6.5 point favorites in both of their playoff games prior to the Super Bowl.

Beyond team success, Ryan's 2016 was far more statistically impressive. Dak is leading the league in TDs, but Ryan led the league in TD%, QBR, passer rating, and basically every stat that measures yards per attempt and yards per catch. He led the league in AV, and had the 15th best season ever by passing DYAR (and the only guys in front of him are Brady, Manning, Marino, Brees, Rodgers and Mahomes). Dak is currently 6th in passing DYAR this year alone. Prorating Dak's season out to the full 17 games, he'd have fewer TDs, fewer passing yards and more interceptions than Ryan despite playing the extra game. Ryan's season was impressive from a historical standpoint, but other than TDs, Dak isn't even at the top of the list in anything this year.

I 100% agree that he has work to do, but he has a clear path to the award (probably more so than anyone else). Just saying that is incredible based on where everyone ranked him heading into the season.

I just want to nitpick and say that this is begging the question since AV already bakes in the awards and accolades into its calculation. But yeah, if "advanced passing metrics" are your threshold for MVP, Brock Purdy should be the frontrunner by a mile (he even has a higher EPA/Play than Matt Ryan did in 2016, then again, so did 2016 Brady). My candidate would be CJ Stroud because to me that's the best combination of volume+efficiency+elevating the pieces around him+team record, but Dak would come in second.

 

[Jungleland]

I’m under no illusion that he’s the only shitty guy in the league, but Tyreek makes me sick and the degree to which he’s a headline story for the NFL this year has honestly hurt my enjoyment of the sport a little bit. Not in a permanent way, but it’s sucked a bit of fun out of fantasy and red zone this year for me for sure.

I think he’ll hit 2000 yards because they’re going to try to make it happen and I think it’ll be a damn shame.

 

[johnmd20]

I really don’t understand your logic. The 2016 Falcons went 11-5. The Cowboys are currently 9-3 and will probably finish 12-5 or so. Why does Matt Ryan deserve more credit just because he played in a shittier division in 2016?

Dak is absolutely playing at an MVP level but he has work to do to win the award, IMO The Cowboys really don’t have any impressive wins so Dak needs to get 2-3 wins in this tough stretch coming up, I think.

Every win Dallas has had this season has been impressive. They are fucking murdering teams, which is a skill in and of itself.

Of course, their losses are the complete opposite. But kicking the crap out of bad to average teams is still impressive.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Every win Dallas has had this season has been impressive. They are fucking murdering teams, which is a skill in and of itself.

Of course, their losses are the complete opposite. But kicking the crap out of bad to average teams is still impressive.

Fair. Yes, they are a Jekyll and Hyde team. I’d like to see Dr. Jekyll come out against a team that will actually be playing in mid-January. This next stretch should tell us a lot about their chances in January.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Every win Dallas has had this season has been impressive. They are fucking murdering teams, which is a skill in and of itself.

Of course, their losses are the complete opposite. But kicking the crap out of bad to average teams is still impressive.

This is also having a significant effect downward on Dak's numbers.

Dak in the 1st half this year is 176/246 for71.5%, 1,970 yards, 18tds and 2ints. 116.1 rating
In the 2nd half, he's 112/165 for 67.8%, 1,264 yards, 8tds, 4 ints (3 of which came in 3 consecutive series against San Fran), 96.6 rating

When you're beating teams 45-10, 33-10, 49-17, 43-20, 38-3, 30-10 and 40-0, it's going to be hard to keep putting up numbers from the QB position. IMO, it shouldn't be held against Dak that he's been so good in the 1st half, they haven't needed him to do much in the 2nd half. He's even rushed 25 times for 131 yards in the 1st half, compared to 16 for 43 yards in the 2nd half, because it's not worth taking any chances.

 

[johnmd20]

This is also having a significant effect downward on Dak's numbers.

Dak in the 1st half this year is 176/246 for71.5%, 1,970 yards, 18tds and 2ints. 116.1 rating
In the 2nd half, he's 112/165 for 67.8%, 1,264 yards, 8tds, 4 ints (3 of which came in 3 consecutive series against San Fran), 96.6 rating

When you're beating teams 45-10, 33-10, 49-17, 43-20, 38-3, 30-10 and 40-0, it's going to be hard to keep putting up numbers from the QB position. IMO, it shouldn't be held against Dak that he's been so good in the 1st half, they haven't needed him to do much in the 2nd half. He's even rushed 25 times for 131 yards in the 1st half, compared to 16 for 43 yards in the 2nd half, because it's not worth taking any chances.

That was Jalen Hurts last year. Every first half was crazy and every second half was just handoffs because they were killing teams. But Mahomes had a monster year and the Chiefs had the 1 seed. So Hurts got passed up for Patty M.

This year, there is no Mahomes. Dak is the MVP of the NFL thus far. He's been incredible and it pains me to say that because mocking Dallas is fun.

 

[wilked]

Starting to look pretty unlikely…

 

[johnmd20]

Starting to look pretty unlikely…

4 games left and 460 yards needed. And he's hurt. And they are playing the Jets, Dallas, and the Ravens the next 3 weeks. Three very good to insanely good pass defenses.

Nobody saw this coming.

 

[Marciano490]

Aww look at this adorably twee story about Hill and his wife from Yahoo vía People (great press agent for them)!

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/dolphins-tyreek-hill-says-pushed-200612169.html

I wonder if she told him he was being a bigger baby than their baby when he broke its arm?

 

[johnmd20]

Aww look at this adorably twee story about Hill and his wife from Yahoo vía People (great press agent for them)!

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/dolphins-tyreek-hill-says-pushed-200612169.html

I wonder if she told him he was being a bigger baby than their baby when he broke its arm?

Wife is like, "The baby didn't take a play off, you don't take a play off Tyreke."