The math
in this article sure makes it seem like Carter will win.
MLS+USL+NWSL are nearly 25% of the vote on their own. She'll pick up votes from among the many state adult and youth associations, plus a bunch of the miscellaneous voters (board of directors, life members, etc), and possibly some or all of the Athletes' Council. The only way she doesn't win is if the Athletes' Council votes against her en masse and support coalesces around one of the other candidates. That seems unlikely.
Do we know that USSF is selling SUM the rights to US games for below market prices? That's really the only aspect of the SUM relationship that is potentially corrupt. For me, the bigger issue with Carter is less potential corruption (in any legal sense) and more the unlikelihood that she'll rock the boat where it's needed.