Yeah, it's only "taking a chance" because of the risk of punishment.
And I may be in the minority here, but I've never liked the holding out the football thing, especially on goal line plays, more so than pylon stretches at the end of a run. I understand it's inevitable and certainly within the rules because of the "breaking the plane" rule, but it's just never felt right to me. It seems like (with the goal line pile plays) it's a fairly new development, too. According to my highly unreliable memory, in my youth, it seems like there was a higher incidence of RBs trying to leap over the pile than now, but they didn't hold the ball out.
Anyway, if they're going to do it, the more risk the better, IMO.