What do you want Pats to do with #3?

[NDame616]

Well but the trick is... usually teams trade down when they don't need a QB. The haul is worth it if you already have (or might have) a player you think is close or better than the pick.
So last year, CHI had just drafted Fields, he'd shown some real signs, it was considered a mediocre QB class... easy choice to trade down.
2021- MIA trades down, they had just drafted Tua top 5 and he'd had a solid enough half season
2018- IND trades down.... they had Andrew Luck

I said this earlier in the thread and forgive me if the exact numbers aren't correct but...

Alex Barth on TSH said he looked at (I believe) the last 20 years of drafting and no one has traded back and still taken a QB in the 1st round. (I'm 99% sure he said 20 years but it may have been 10) So that checks out.

So history agrees with you. If a team looks at player X as their next QB, they aren't going to risk trading back and taking him later. They will just draft him in their slot because it isn't worth the gamble.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I said this earlier in the thread and forgive me if the exact numbers aren't correct but...

Alex Barth on TSH said he looked at (I believe) the last 20 years of drafting and no one has traded back and still taken a QB in the 1st round. (I'm 99% sure he said 20 years but it may have been 10) So that checks out.

So history agrees with you. If a team looks at player X as their next QB, they aren't going to risk trading back and taking him later. They will just draft him in their slot because it isn't worth the gamble.

The Eli Manning/Philip Rivers situation comes to mind, although that was a special case.

 

[NDame616]

The Eli Manning/Philip Rivers situation comes to mind, although that was a special case.

Didn't they draft the players THEN trade them?

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Didn't they draft the players THEN trade them?

Yes but that is sort of a distinction without a difference, IMO.

 

[amfox1]

Going outside the top 8 to even 9 is my nightmare scenario. You could easily miss out on the Top 3 QBs, Top 3 WRs and the Top 2 Tackles. To me that’s a complete disaster.

First, it's unlikely that none of those 8 will be there at 9 (and even if they weren't, there's still Bowers and Fuaga available). Second, you're also getting a QB for the next year (at $6mm) or two (at $6mm/$25mm) and a 2025 1st under the CHI scenario.

The trade I really want is NYG trading 6, 39, 47 and 2025 2nd to NE for 3 (virtual replication of Sam Darnold draft day trade in 2018). That gives NE the draft capital to fill OT, WR and QB this year with top 40 picks, plus potentially a top 40 pick next year. I'd grab one of OTs (Alt is my preference) at 6 and hope one of the 2nd tier WRs (Thomas, McConkey, Mitchell, Worthy, Franklin) falls to 34 and one of the second-tier QBs (Nix/Penix) falls to 39. I'd use 47 for BPA.

 

[Cellar-Door]

First, it's unlikely that none of those 8 will be there at 9 (and even if they weren't, there's still Bowers and Fuaga available). Second, you're also getting a QB for the next year (at $6mm) or two (at $6mm/$25mm) and a 2025 1st under the CHI scenario.

The trade I really want is NYG trading 6, 39, 47 and 2025 2nd to NE for 3 (virtual replication of Sam Darnold draft day trade in 2018). That gives NE the draft capital to fill OT, WR and QB this year with top 40 picks, plus potentially a top 40 pick next year. I'd grab one of OTs (Alt is my preference) at 6 and hope one of the 2nd tier WRs (Thomas, McConkey, Mitchell, Worthy, Franklin) falls to 34 and one of the second-tier QBs (Nix/Penix) falls to 39. I'd use 47 for BPA.

I hate any trade that involves a trade down to draft a 3rd or 4th tier QB. If you trade back don't waste part of the value like that.

Edit- if you want to grab a QB on like day 3... sure. I very much ascribe to the Klassen thought on this... take one of the top QBs or wait until round 4 or later, because round 2 and 3 QBs are almost always not very good and the players at other premium positions usually are. I just see zero reason to take a Penix or a Nix, those guys are longshots to ever be even average QBs. If you aren't willing to take one of the 3 guys who has a real shot at being GOOD... then just sign a guy who is already in the below average group. I mean... I don't like Russ Wilson, but the odds that either Nix or Penix is anywhere near as good as the washed version of Russ is very small.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I don’t want to trade down at all. Take the QB. Or take MHJ, and grab another QB, but don’t trade down and don’t let Mac take another snap.

Reiss this morning on this line of thinking

Picking one of them at No. 3 -- likely Daniels or Maye -- would mean they decisively believe they've identified their quarterback of the future. Few would argue it's the most important position. But what if that conviction ultimately isn't there?

For a Patriots team badly in need of an infusion of offensive talent, but also with players whom Wolf said will fit the culture of doing more than the norm, Harrison might be the safest choice.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39640451/why-new-england-patriots-nfl-draft-marvin-harrison-jr

 

[Eddie Jurak]

If they are going to trade down, passing up a top tier QB and MHJ, then the price should be high. There are teams that don't need a QB that would still find value in that pick.

 

[Bowser]

I just see zero reason to take a Penix or a Nix, those guys are longshots to ever be even average QBs. If you aren't willing to take one of the 3 guys who has a real shot at being GOOD... then just sign a guy who is already in the below average group.

Curious as to what you mean by this. As in, what's the percent chance that WIlliams, Maye, or Daniels become top 10 QBs? For me, it's something like Williams (40%), Maye (20%), and Daniels (20%). But it sounds like you're more optimistic about Maye & Daniels...

 

[Tony C]

Reiss this morning on this line of thinking

Picking one of them at No. 3 -- likely Daniels or Maye -- would mean they decisively believe they've identified their quarterback of the future. Few would argue it's the most important position. But what if that conviction ultimately isn't there?

It's pretty much as simple as that.
1) it's a no-brainer you take the 3rd of the top-ranked QBs with the 3rd pick. Don't even think about getting cute.
2) The only complication is your internal rating is that, say, Daniels, is decisively not a guy you have ranked with the other 2 (and I've read some boards that have him considerably lower than the 3rd pick). I'm personally a go w/ the consensus guy over one genius knows better than the rest (i.e, the Giants deciding everyone else was wrong about D Jones). So I'd go Daniels (or Maye) in whatever case. But if the Pats truly think that 3rd QB is closer to McCarthy/Nix/Penix than Caleb/Maye, then all the rest of these machinations come into play.

tl;dr: they'll be picking Daniels (or Maye).

 

[NortheasternPJ]

First, it's unlikely that none of those 8 will be there at 9 (and even if they weren't, there's still Bowers and Fuaga available). Second, you're also getting a QB for the next year (at $6mm) or two (at $6mm/$25mm) and a 2025 1st under the CHI scenario.

The trade I really want is NYG trading 6, 39, 47 and 2025 2nd to NE for 3 (virtual replication of Sam Darnold draft day trade in 2018). That gives NE the draft capital to fill OT, WR and QB this year with top 40 picks, plus potentially a top 40 pick next year. I'd grab one of OTs (Alt is my preference) at 6 and hope one of the 2nd tier WRs (Thomas, McConkey, Mitchell, Worthy, Franklin) falls to 34 and one of the second-tier QBs (Nix/Penix) falls to 39. I'd use 47 for BPA.

I agree it’s unlikely but I don’t want to get cute and end up with a second tier prospect. The top of QB, WR and OT seemed to have separated from the rest. I’m all set with drafting a TE at 9, pass.

I don’t hate that Giants trade, that’s a great place for them to be. Sitting at 6 with that haul would be worth considering if they don’t love and think the QB at 3 they get is the guy.

 

[lexrageorge]

Personally prefer they use the #3 pick on the best QB available. If they decide to trade down, then the pick they get needs to be no lower than #10. The team needs an infusion of top end talent on offense, not a bunch of 3rd and 4th rounders and 2025 picks.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Personally prefer they use the #3 pick on the best QB available. If they decide to trade down, then the pick they get needs to be no lower than #10. The team needs an infusion of top end talent on offense, not a bunch of 3rd and 4th rounders and 2025 picks.

This is 100% how I feel. Stay at 3 and pick a QB. But if they don’t like the guy left and think he’s a bust, let the giants take him and then get either an OT or WR at 6.

 

[nighthob]

This is 100% how I feel. Stay at 3 and pick a QB. But if they don’t like the guy left and think he’s a bust, let the giants take him and then get either an OT or WR at 6.

If it was a deal of 6/38/47/‘25 #1 for #3, I’d be willing to roll the dice on OT, and adding receiver talent in the second (unless Denver is really desperate to draft McCarthy and you can get another passel of picks for #6). I’m fine with going with Wilson at minimum with a good surrounding cast and taking a developmental prospect like Rattler later on. And stockpiling ‘25 picks in hopes of grabbing Sanders next year.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

If it was a deal of 6/38/47/‘25 #1 for #3, I’d be willing to roll the dice on OT, and adding receiver talent in the second (unless Denver is really desperate to draft McCarthy and you can get another passel of picks for #6). I’m fine with going with Wilson at minimum with a good surrounding cast and taking a developmental prospect like Rattler later on. And stockpiling ‘25 picks in hopes of grabbing Sanders next year.

I don’t think you’ll need to stockpile picks for Sanders next year unless he takes a big step forward in development.

If the Pats aren’t sold on any of the top QB’s in this year’s crop, I can’t imagine Sanders is a guy that would interest them. His ball security is awful and his arm talent would probably be 6th/7th in this year’s crop (maybe worse). His mechanics need some work and his overall ceiling is fairly low as far as a potential high round QB goes.

Maybe Beck or Ewers rise to the top of next year’s crop but as of now (and obviously a lot can change), there doesn’t really seem to be a guy you need to stockpile for. I think it’s more likely the Pats are drafting too high to justify any of the 2025 prospects than it is they’ll have to make a big move up the board.

But, as we saw with Daniels and probably McCarthy, there’s a good chance next year’s “guy” is someone not on the radar right now

 

[ManicCompression]

I’m at the point where I’m praying Williams/Daniels go 1-2 so that NEP have no choice but to draft Maye.

It's less driven by belief in Maye, and more driven by skepticism of Daniels. Daniels scares the shit out of me because:

- he’s incredibly slight for his height
- he runs recklessly (not a good combo with the above)
- it seems like he runs to run, not runs to pass, and he’s not at the level of a Lamar Jackson as a runner to make that a super valuable aspect of his game... not sure if that will translate well against NFL athletes.
- he was throwing to the best WR corps in the country (outside of maybe UW). I have PTSD of Mac throwing to a wide open Devonta Smith and thinking that had any bearing on his pro success
- he was kind of a disappointment until this year and being that he’s older than nearly everyone he’s playing against, the kind of improvement he showed is less impressive (this is the Bo Nix/Penix Corollary - how does one weigh being 2-3 years older than a lot of the competition?)
- he’s 2 years older than Maye, so he’ll be about nearly 29 when he’s signing his next big contract whereas Maye will be 27

Maye has warts, but he’s bigger, younger, and was working with a bad supporting cast in comparison. If he was on LSU this year, what kind of stats would he put up? Is it crazy to think he'd at least match Daniels' passing stats?

They both have a lot of question marks, but Maye is the more projectable of the two. If it’s just Daniels there at 3, I’m of a mind to trade out and punt the young QB search for later in the draft or next year.

 

[E5 Yaz]

They both have a lot of question marks, but Maye is the more projectable of the two. If it’s just Daniels there at 3, I’m of a mind to trade out and punt the young QB search for later in the draft or next year.

It's a true dilemma if, as Reiss said, they wind up not being sold on the QB3. The top free agent quarterbacks would be gone long before the draft, so if they want to go that route (and either draft MHJ or trade down) they almost have to engage with those guys earlier. If they want to spend their time evaluating Maye/Daniels and decide they want to pass on them, they've boxed themselves into a corner as to the short-term quarterback.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Curious as to what you mean by this. As in, what's the percent chance that WIlliams, Maye, or Daniels become top 10 QBs? For me, it's something like Williams (40%), Maye (20%), and Daniels (20%). But it sounds like you're more optimistic about Maye & Daniels...

So I don't generally think of these things in terms of a percentage, way too many variables. What I like to do is look at the things top QBs do, look at the things these guys can do, see where they have phyiscal traits that match, have shown abilites I think match, what they need to learn and whether it's something that's easier or harder to learn (or impossible).

So I would look at it like this:

1. Generally you need to be able to provide mobility in the NFL, and there are categories:
A. Not mobile, can't escape with consistency
B, Mobile enough to escape sacks and get rid of the ball, maybe even complete the play
C. Mobile enough to create plays consistently, defense needs to account for you.
D. Legitimate running threat to the point teams gameplan differently to contain you.'

2. Running as a QB, you don't NEED it, but it provides a lot of outs for many of the top QBs.
A. Not a runner, either can't at all, or only in very select situations where there is nobody to beat.
B. Selective runner, will do it on big 3rd downs (Mahomes style) but not a real part of the offense
C. Good designed runner but not explosive, teams need to account for it, but not a focus
D. Freakish homerun threat, it's a major part of defensive meetings every week.

3. Arm strength
A. Freakshow, elite strength on and off platform, in and out of pocket.
B. Elite: either freakish in pocket only, or just below that but in and out of pocket.
C. Good on and off platform
D. Good enough on platform
E. Fringe
F: get ready to learn auto sales.

4. Anticipation
A. Throws guys open
B. Anticipation on some routes (go, Fade) but otherwise see it throw it
C. See it throw it.

5. Uses the whole field
A. Uses the whole field often (really rare in college)
B. Uses the whole field sometimes
C. Uses most of the field
D. Really weak in one or more areas (usually middle, sometimes guys who can't throw one way)

6. Placement
A. excellent on all throws.
B. Good on some types of throws all platforms
C. Good on some throws (or from certain platforms)
D. Generally poor
E. Joe Milton

Then there is a bunch of miscellaneous stuff... touch, ability to make throws under pressure, ability to play from behind, injury history, size, creativity etc.

So to me...
Caleb is QB 1 because I think he's a 1B/C, 2B/C, 3A/B (arm is just below freak strength, but off platform is amazing), 4A/B, 5B, 6B, he's got decent size, no real injury issues, ridiculously creative, great under pressure, played a whole season mostly well mostly behind.
Daniels is a 1D, 2D, 3C, 4B, 5C, 6C, size concerns, but played well under pressure and from behind. His running ability means he needs to get less out of his arm to be top 10.
Maye, 1C,2C, 3B, 4B/C, 5B, 6C.. great size, no injuries... inconsistent, struggled when he got down.

Now the 2 I have lower you mentioned:
Penix: 1A/B, 2A, 3B (rocket on platform, not really on the move), 4B/C, 5D (the middle of the field is lava), 6C... good size, lot of injury history, didn't face much pressure but wasn't great at handling it, I also don't like his touch.
Nix: 1B/C, 2B/C, 3C/D, 4C, 5C/D, 6C... okay size and injury history, didn't play behind much, also with him.... his whole offense was built around getting the ball out of his hands immediately on 1, 2 reads at most, ton of short stuff. I'm just not a believer at all.

Edit- so generally to me I see 3 guys with different skillsets, but all with a lot of positives in key areas, particularly areas that you either can't teach or are hard to teach. On the other side I see 2 guys who between them have 1 elite non-teachable trait, some physical limits that are lower than the other 3, and have a lot of areas they need major improvement in at a moderately advanced/experienced age for a prospect (Daniels does too, but... elite traits). So I think it's more likely Daniels learns a few things well than Penix or Nix learns a lot. Also just way higher floor if you run like him. Maye has age advantages, and he's to me more athletic than Penix or Nix, and has a better arm than Nix.

 

[mcpickl]

I’m at the point where I’m praying Williams/Daniels go 1-2 so that NEP have no choice but to draft Maye.

It's less driven by belief in Maye, and more driven by skepticism of Daniels. Daniels scares the shit out of me because:

- he’s incredibly slight for his height
- he runs recklessly (not a good combo with the above)
- it seems like he runs to run, not runs to pass, and he’s not at the level of a Lamar Jackson as a runner to make that a super valuable aspect of his game... not sure if that will translate well against NFL athletes.
- he was throwing to the best WR corps in the country (outside of maybe UW). I have PTSD of Mac throwing to a wide open Devonta Smith and thinking that had any bearing on his pro success
- he was kind of a disappointment until this year and being that he’s older than nearly everyone he’s playing against, the kind of improvement he showed is less impressive (this is the Bo Nix/Penix Corollary - how does one weigh being 2-3 years older than a lot of the competition?)
- he’s 2 years older than Maye, so he’ll be about nearly 29 when he’s signing his next big contract whereas Maye will be 27

Maye has warts, but he’s bigger, younger, and was working with a bad supporting cast in comparison. If he was on LSU this year, what kind of stats would he put up? Is it crazy to think he'd at least match Daniels' passing stats?

They both have a lot of question marks, but Maye is the more projectable of the two. If it’s just Daniels there at 3, I’m of a mind to trade out and punt the young QB search for later in the draft or next year.

This is where I'm at as well.

I'd much rather bet on the bigger guy, with the bigger arm, to play in the tougher weather here.

I have zero interest in paying any of the free agent QBs. I don't think any of them are good enough to get through the AFC to the Super Bowl, so I'd much rather gamble on a younger guy that is an unknown.

I'm guessing that part won't matter anyway. I think even those few starter level QBs that are on the market will have options they prefer to coming here. If New England isn't dead last on the list for QB openings, it's gotta at least be really close to the bottom.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

It's a true dilemma if, as Reiss said, they wind up not being sold on the QB3. The top free agent quarterbacks would be gone long before the draft, so if they want to go that route (and either draft MHJ or trade down) they almost have to engage with those guys earlier. If they want to spend their time evaluating Maye/Daniels and decide they want to pass on them, they've boxed themselves into a corner as to the short-term quarterback.

I think the unfortunate part of drafting 3rd is that if you’re not sold on both Daniels and Maye, you have to make a play for a veteran who could be an option for 2025 whether it’s Fields, Mayfield, Wilson, or someone else’s castoff like Pickett, Ridder or even Lock (as a free agent).

You cant come out of this off-season without a guy you think can be your guy in 2025. What happens if next year’s class is as bad as it looks like it could be? Or if there’s one guy and you have no realistic path to getting him. Generally teams who draft in the top 3 need a QB so it would require a really specific set of events to unfold for the Pats to be in position to get the top guy next year unless the top guy isn’t very good (like the Pickett class)

I suppose there’s an argument to be made that if they’re not sold on Maye and Daniels, they should just go full tank, run it back with Zappe and hope they end up in the top 2 next year but that’s not something a new de facto GM/coach are going to do.

I get not reaching on a guy you don’t love but the team isn’t going anywhere without a legitimate starting QB. So at some point, whether it’s this year or next year, they have to take a swing on a guy. The alternative is to cycle through retreads for a few years.

 

[Bowser]

So I don't generally think of these things in terms of a percentage, way too many variables. What I like to do is look at the things top QBs do, look at the things these guys can do, see where they have phyiscal traits that match, have shown abilites I think match, what they need to learn and whether it's something that's easier or harder to learn (or impossible).

So I would look at it like this:

1. Generally you need to be able to provide mobility in the NFL, and there are categories:
A. Not mobile, can't escape with consistency
B, Mobile enough to escape sacks and get rid of the ball, maybe even complete the play
C. Mobile enough to create plays consistently, defense needs to account for you.
D. Legitimate running threat to the point teams gameplan differently to contain you.'

2. Running as a QB, you don't NEED it, but it provides a lot of outs for many of the top QBs.
A. Not a runner, either can't at all, or only in very select situations where there is nobody to beat.
B. Selective runner, will do it on big 3rd downs (Mahomes style) but not a real part of the offense
C. Good designed runner but not explosive, teams need to account for it, but not a focus
D. Freakish homerun threat, it's a major part of defensive meetings every week.

3. Arm strength
A. Freakshow, elite strength on and off platform, in and out of pocket.
B. Elite: either freakish in pocket only, or just below that but in and out of pocket.
C. Good on and off platform
D. Good enough on platform
E. Fringe
F: get ready to learn auto sales.

4. Anticipation
A. Throws guys open
B. Anticipation on some routes (go, Fade) but otherwise see it throw it
C. See it throw it.

5. Uses the whole field
A. Uses the whole field often (really rare in college)
B. Uses the whole field sometimes
C. Uses most of the field
D. Really weak in one or more areas (usually middle, sometimes guys who can't throw one way)

6. Placement
A. excellent on all throws.
B. Good on some types of throws all platforms
C. Good on some throws (or from certain platforms)
D. Generally poor
E. Joe Milton

Then there is a bunch of miscellaneous stuff... touch, ability to make throws under pressure, ability to play from behind, injury history, size, creativity etc.

So to me...
Caleb is QB 1 because I think he's a 1B/C, 2B/C, 3A/B (arm is just below freak strength, but off platform is amazing), 4A/B, 5B, 6B, he's got decent size, no real injury issues, ridiculously creative, great under pressure, played a whole season mostly well mostly behind.
Daniels is a 1D, 2D, 3C, 4B, 5C, 6C, size concerns, but played well under pressure and from behind. His running ability means he needs to get less out of his arm to be top 10.
Maye, 1C,2C, 3B, 4B/C, 5B, 6C.. great size, no injuries... inconsistent, struggled when he got down.

Now the 2 I have lower you mentioned:
Penix: 1A/B, 2A, 3B (rocket on platform, not really on the move), 4B/C, 5D (the middle of the field is lava), 6C... good size, lot of injury history, didn't face much pressure but wasn't great at handling it, I also don't like his touch.
Nix: 1B/C, 2B/C, 3C/D, 4C, 5C/D, 6C... okay size and injury history, didn't play behind much, also with him.... his whole offense was built around getting the ball out of his hands immediately on 1, 2 reads at most, ton of short stuff. I'm just not a believer at all.

Edit- so generally to me I see 3 guys with different skillsets, but all with a lot of positives in key areas, particularly areas that you either can't teach or are hard to teach. On the other side I see 2 guys who between them have 1 elite non-teachable trait, some physical limits that are lower than the other 3, and have a lot of areas they need major improvement in at a moderately advanced/experienced age for a prospect (Daniels does too, but... elite traits). So I think it's more likely Daniels learns a few things well than Penix or Nix learns a lot. Also just way higher floor if you run like him. Maye has age advantages, and he's to me more athletic than Penix or Nix, and has a better arm than Nix.

Jesus, what a thoughtful answer. I was expecting you to throw out a few wild ass guess percentages ... like I did.

On a related note, I did hear Lazar say recently that something like 8.9% of Daniels' throws this past season went to the middle of the field, which was the lowest % for any QB drafted in the first round in the last 5 years. The vast majority went outside the numbers and deep, aided by two great WRs. So one of my concerns is that unless our scheme and personnel changes dramatically under AVP, I'm not sure Daniels is the best fit for us ... unless he has these throws in his bag and just happened not to use them in college.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Jesus, what a thoughtful answer. I was expecting you to throw out a few wild ass guess percentages ... like I did.

On a related note, I did hear Lazar say recently that something like 8.9% of Daniels' throws this past season went to the middle of the field, which was the lowest % for any QB drafted in the first round in the last 5 years. The vast majority went outside the numbers and deep, aided by two great WRs. So one of my concerns is that unless our scheme and personnel changes dramatically under AVP, I'm not sure Daniels is the best fit for us ... unless he has these throws in his bag and just happened not to use them in college.

Not sure where Lazar got that umber. I know PFF had him at like 10%, though worth noting their definition of "middle" is between the numbers, between 10-19 yards. Generally between his choices and LSU's route concepts that rarely target the middle he had low volume there, but things like EPA thought he was good there when he threw (though they use a more expansive definition of middle I think)... PFF "middle" was only okay (82 grade I think?)
That's one of the things Daniels will need to improve, but I think it's learnable and partially just offense based.

As to AVP... everyone uses the whole field in the NFL, you need to, but looking at Flacco's charts, looks like CLE worked outside a lot.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/joe-flacco/FLA009602/2023

 

[Jimbodandy]

Jesus, what a thoughtful answer. I was expecting you to throw out a few wild ass guess percentages ... like I did.

On a related note, I did hear Lazar say recently that something like 8.9% of Daniels' throws this past season went to the middle of the field, which was the lowest % for any QB drafted in the first round in the last 5 years. The vast majority went outside the numbers and deep, aided by two great WRs. So one of my concerns is that unless our scheme and personnel changes dramatically under AVP, I'm not sure Daniels is the best fit for us ... unless he has these throws in his bag and just happened not to use them in college.

I think that CD is pretty spot-on on it being a scheme thing for Daniels/LSU. It's probably no secret that I'm a Daniels stan, but his two best teammates were both pretty fucking solid X receivers in college and will likely go round 1. I'm not 100% certain that Nabers is a dominant X in the NFL and might (not definitely but might) be a Z, but both he and Thomas were studs on the outside last year and averaging 17-18 YPC. Why use the middle when your Xs are moonwalking down the sideline.

If I were really pushing Daniels, I'd note that despite having terminators at X, he probably isn't having any of his OL drafted except maybe his C and was still silly productive.

 

[nighthob]

I don’t think you’ll need to stockpile picks for Sanders next year unless he takes a big step forward in development.

My preference would be a trade up for Williams, because as I've said, he's got it. He has the arm talent to make all the throws, even when on the move, which stretches defenses and makes mediocre receivers look good. It would have been better for them to have lost one more game and be drafting #2.

 

[Curt S Loew]

If it’s just Daniels there at 3, I’m of a mind to trade out and punt the young QB search for later in the draft or next year.

I'm a Maye guy as well, but I think you have to take Daniels at 3. I'm not sold on him either, but QB is by FAR the most important. These QB's are gonna go 1-3 unless something changes. Hell, some are even moving McCarthy to FOUR!

I'd rather take the chance and have it not be right then don't take it and be wrong. You don't know when you'll get another shot.

 

[ManicCompression]

I'm a Maye guy as well, but I think you have to take Daniels at 3. I'm not sold on him either, but QB is by FAR the most important. These QB's are gonna go 1-3 unless something changes. Hell, some are even moving McCarthy to FOUR!

I'd rather take the chance and have it not be right then don't take it and be wrong. You don't know when you'll get another shot.

Yeah, and I agree that QB is by far the most important position on the field, but I just see shades of Hendon Hooker with Daniels - older for a college senior, in an offense that just chucks up bombs outside the numbers to great athletes... I feel like he's going to be in for a really rude awakening when he has to throw a slant against an NFL defense.

QB is really important, but even worse is forcing it with a guy who's not NFL caliber. I feel the same about JJ Mcarthy - I'm just not convinced that their skills are going to translate to the pros, so why waste a high pick on them when you could have OT or WR figured out for the next decade?

 

[Curt S Loew]

Yeah, and I agree that QB is by far the most important position on the field, but I just see shades of Hendon Hooker with Daniels - older for a college senior, in an offense that just chucks up bombs outside the numbers to great athletes... I feel like he's going to be in for a really rude awakening when he has to throw a slant against an NFL defense.

QB is really important, but even worse is forcing it with a guy who's not NFL caliber. I feel the same about JJ Mcarthy - I'm just not convinced that their skills are going to translate to the pros, so why waste a high pick on them when you could have OT or WR figured out for the next decade?

Well, someone is going to. I know that doesn't mean we should, but it's rare to be in this position with a class like this.

I just think you need to pull the trigger.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Yeah, and I agree that QB is by far the most important position on the field, but I just see shades of Hendon Hooker with Daniels - older for a college senior, in an offense that just chucks up bombs outside the numbers to great athletes... I feel like he's going to be in for a really rude awakening when he has to throw a slant against an NFL defense.

QB is really important, but even worse is forcing it with a guy who's not NFL caliber. I feel the same about JJ Mcarthy - I'm just not convinced that their skills are going to translate to the pros, so why waste a high pick on them when you could have OT or WR figured out for the next decade?

Eventually you’re going to have to force it though, right? What are the chances your value of a particular QB is ever going to perfectly match up to your draft slot? Either you force it by reaching a little compared to your board or force it by paying a king’s ransom to trade up to get a guy you love (if there’s even a trade partner)

Ending up with a great OT or WR (assuming these guys pan out) and no QB is just as wasteful in the long run as forcing a QB

The QB position is the one position in the sport where sometimes you need to just take a swing and not worry about getting perfect value. Because without a QB, all the value your other players is providing is diminished.

What value does Harrison have with Zappe, Rudolph or Brissett throwing him the ball? Sure, he will be fun to watch. But he isn’t going to help you get to the playoffs if the QB play is trash. Just look at Jefferson, Chase and Garrett Wilson last year. Or Calvin Johnson, or most of DeAndre Hopkins’ career.

How many years is the front office going to be willing to punt on QB because they don’t love the value of the available QB’s?

If they think that absolutely Daniels/Maye/McCarthy et al aren’t NFL caliber QB’s, that’s one thing. If they think those guys are worth taking at 12 but not at 3, you just need to pull the trigger at 3.

 

[Justthetippett]

Eventually you’re going to have to force it though, right? What are the chances your value of a particular QB is ever going to perfectly match up to your draft slot? Either you force it by reaching a little compared to your board or force it by paying a king’s ransom to trade up to get a guy you love (if there’s even a trade partner)

Ending up with a great OT or WR (assuming these guys pan out) and no QB is just as wasteful in the long run as forcing a QB

The QB position is the one position in the sport where sometimes you need to just take a swing and not worry about getting perfect value. Because without a QB, all the value your other players is providing is diminished.

What value does Harrison have with Zappe, Rudolph or Brissett throwing him the ball? Sure, he will be fun to watch. But he isn’t going to help you get to the playoffs if the QB play is trash. Just look at Jefferson, Chase and Garrett Wilson last year. Or Calvin Johnson, or most of DeAndre Hopkins’ career.

How many years is the front office going to be willing to punt on QB because they don’t love the value of the available QB’s?

If they think that absolutely Daniels/Maye/McCarthy et al aren’t NFL caliber QB’s, that’s one thing. If they think those guys are worth taking at 12 but not at 3, you just need to pull the trigger at 3.

I agree with this. I am settling into team "sit tight and take a swing". We might be letting the perfect be the enemy of the good (enough) if we get too cute with the pick. How many truly elite QBs are there in the league right now? Mahomes, regular season Lamar Jackson, healthy Joe Burrows and...? You can argue for a few others, but the point holds. You don't need a perfect QB to compete. You need a very good one. And a very good one on a rookie deal lets you reallocate to the rest of roster for at least 4 years. We will have an opportunity to pick a very good prospect. And since we are picking #3 in a top three QB draft, and the costs to trade up are prohibitive for a team with as many weaknesses as we have, we don't really have much of a choice. You pick who's left from Maye/Daniels at #3, the scouts earn their money on the rest of the picks and FA signings, and the coaching staff develops those players into a cohesive team.

The only reason not to stick at #3 and pick Maye/Daniels is if, because of the pre-draft process, you think McCarthy is actually better and you know you can get him by trading back. Of course you can't know this for sure beyond #4, so it's a risk, and probably not a good one.

 

[ManicCompression]

Eventually you’re going to have to force it though, right? What are the chances your value of a particular QB is ever going to perfectly match up to your draft slot? Either you force it by reaching a little compared to your board or force it by paying a king’s ransom to trade up to get a guy you love (if there’s even a trade partner)

Ending up with a great OT or WR (assuming these guys pan out) and no QB is just as wasteful in the long run as forcing a QB

The QB position is the one position in the sport where sometimes you need to just take a swing and not worry about getting perfect value. Because without a QB, all the value your other players is providing is diminished.

What value does Harrison have with Zappe, Rudolph or Brissett throwing him the ball? Sure, he will be fun to watch. But he isn’t going to help you get to the playoffs if the QB play is trash. Just look at Jefferson, Chase and Garrett Wilson last year. Or Calvin Johnson, or most of DeAndre Hopkins’ career.

How many years is the front office going to be willing to punt on QB because they don’t love the value of the available QB’s?

If they think that absolutely Daniels/Maye/McCarthy et al aren’t NFL caliber QB’s, that’s one thing. If they think those guys are worth taking at 12 but not at 3, you just need to pull the trigger at 3.

The chances are low that it’ll ever perfectly match with your draft slot, but that’s why trades are a tool to use. KC traded up for Mahomes, Balt for Lamar, etc. There’s nothing stopping NE from identifying talent in a future draft and trying to acquire it. Not every good QB is a top 3 pick.

I could be/probably am wrong about Daniels - I’m not a pro scout or anything close. I guess I’m just pushing back on the idea that QB success is totally random. Posters are talking about it as if you put a QB quarter in a slot machine and sometimes it hits, so why not always feed it? I just don’t buy that.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

The chances are low that it’ll ever perfectly match with your draft slot, but that’s why trades are a tool to use. KC traded up for Mahomes, Balt for Lamar, etc. There’s nothing stopping NE from identifying talent in a future draft and trying to acquire it. Not every good QB is a top 3 pick.

I could be/probably am wrong about Daniels - I’m not a pro scout or anything close. I guess I’m just pushing back on the idea that QB success is totally random. Posters are talking about it as if you put a QB quarter in a slot machine and sometimes it hits, so why not always feed it? I just don’t buy that.

Not every good QB is a top 3 pick, yes obviously. The vast majority of good QB’s are 1st round picks, the hit rate outside the first is tiny (about 4%). So at some point, the Pats will likely have to either hit a lottery ticket or take a shot on a guy in the first.

And there is, in fact, something stopping the Pats from identifying and trying to acquire talent in future drafts. The supply of QB’s isn’t consistent and the supply of sellers isn’t consistent.

When you’re desperate for a QB, chances are the draft class and list of sellers won’t marry up with your timeline. It’s actually easier to do when you already have a starter (as with Baltimore and KC) because you can wait for the right combination of sellers/perceived value.

How many years will Wolf/Groh/Kraft want to sit though of Zappe level QB’s (or retreads like Brissett etc)? I understand being out on Daniels, McCarthy, Nix etc but next year’s guys are likely to have just as many flaws and if they don’t, they’re likely going to be out of range for the Pats (unless drafting 1st overall)

So again, at some point, they have to take a shot. Or they’re going to be mired in QB mediocrity (or worse) for the duration of the Wolf regime.

 

[ManicCompression]

Not every good QB is a top 3 pick, yes obviously. The vast majority of good QB’s are 1st round picks, the hit rate outside the first is tiny (about 4%). So at some point, the Pats will likely have to either hit a lottery ticket or take a shot on a guy in the first.

And there is, in fact, something stopping the Pats from identifying and trying to acquire talent in future drafts. The supply of QB’s isn’t consistent and the supply of sellers isn’t consistent.

When you’re desperate for a QB, chances are the draft class and list of sellers won’t marry up with your timeline. It’s actually easier to do when you already have a starter (as with Baltimore and KC) because you can wait for the right combination of sellers/perceived value.

How many years will Wolf/Groh/Kraft want to sit though of Zappe level QB’s (or retreads like Brissett etc)? I understand being out on Daniels, McCarthy, Nix etc but next year’s guys are likely to have just as many flaws and if they don’t, they’re likely going to be out of range for the Pats (unless drafting 1st overall)

So again, at some point, they have to take a shot. Or they’re going to be mired in QB mediocrity (or worse) for the duration of the Wolf regime.

This lacks imagination. KC traded for Alex smith before trading for Mahomes - it wasn’t accidental for them to be able to have patience and target a QB. Either Wolf and his team can identify a QB or they can’t, and that could happen early or later in a draft. Just saying “well, the consensus says this guy is a top three pick, let’s take a chance on him” has been the Jets strategy since Sanchez and it’s worked out no better for them than if they took other positions and tried to solve QB later in the draft.

 

[thehitcat]

So I don't generally think of these things in terms of a percentage, way too many variables. What I like to do is look at the things top QBs do, look at the things these guys can do, see where they have physical traits that match, have shown abilities I think match, what they need to learn and whether it's something that's easier or harder to learn (or impossible).

So I would look at it like this:

1. Generally you need to be able to provide mobility in the NFL, and there are categories:
A. Not mobile, can't escape with consistency
B, Mobile enough to escape sacks and get rid of the ball, maybe even complete the play
C. Mobile enough to create plays consistently, defense needs to account for you.
D. Legitimate running threat to the point teams gameplan differently to contain you.'

2. Running as a QB, you don't NEED it, but it provides a lot of outs for many of the top QBs.
A. Not a runner, either can't at all, or only in very select situations where there is nobody to beat.
B. Selective runner, will do it on big 3rd downs (Mahomes style) but not a real part of the offense
C. Good designed runner but not explosive, teams need to account for it, but not a focus
D. Freakish homerun threat, it's a major part of defensive meetings every week.

3. Arm strength
A. Freakshow, elite strength on and off platform, in and out of pocket.
B. Elite: either freakish in pocket only, or just below that but in and out of pocket.
C. Good on and off platform
D. Good enough on platform
E. Fringe
F: get ready to learn auto sales.

4. Anticipation
A. Throws guys open
B. Anticipation on some routes (go, Fade) but otherwise see it throw it
C. See it throw it.

5. Uses the whole field
A. Uses the whole field often (really rare in college)
B. Uses the whole field sometimes
C. Uses most of the field
D. Really weak in one or more areas (usually middle, sometimes guys who can't throw one way)

6. Placement
A. excellent on all throws.
B. Good on some types of throws all platforms
C. Good on some throws (or from certain platforms)
D. Generally poor
E. Joe Milton

Then there is a bunch of miscellaneous stuff... touch, ability to make throws under pressure, ability to play from behind, injury history, size, creativity etc.

So to me...
Caleb is QB 1 because I think he's a 1B/C, 2B/C, 3A/B (arm is just below freak strength, but off platform is amazing), 4A/B, 5B, 6B, he's got decent size, no real injury issues, ridiculously creative, great under pressure, played a whole season mostly well mostly behind.
Daniels is a 1D, 2D, 3C, 4B, 5C, 6C, size concerns, but played well under pressure and from behind. His running ability means he needs to get less out of his arm to be top 10.
Maye, 1C,2C, 3B, 4B/C, 5B, 6C.. great size, no injuries... inconsistent, struggled when he got down.

Now the 2 I have lower you mentioned:
Penix: 1A/B, 2A, 3B (rocket on platform, not really on the move), 4B/C, 5D (the middle of the field is lava), 6C... good size, lot of injury history, didn't face much pressure but wasn't great at handling it, I also don't like his touch.
Nix: 1B/C, 2B/C, 3C/D, 4C, 5C/D, 6C... okay size and injury history, didn't play behind much, also with him.... his whole offense was built around getting the ball out of his hands immediately on 1, 2 reads at most, ton of short stuff. I'm just not a believer at all.

Edit- so generally to me I see 3 guys with different skillsets, but all with a lot of positives in key areas, particularly areas that you either can't teach or are hard to teach. On the other side I see 2 guys who between them have 1 elite non-teachable trait, some physical limits that are lower than the other 3, and have a lot of areas they need major improvement in at a moderately advanced/experienced age for a prospect (Daniels does too, but... elite traits). So I think it's more likely Daniels learns a few things well than Penix or Nix learns a lot. Also just way higher floor if you run like him. Maye has age advantages, and he's to me more athletic than Penix or Nix, and has a better arm than Nix.

Curious since I am a fan and because the Pats spoke to him how you'd grade McCarthy on this scale. My rough go was 1 B/C, 2 B/C, 3C (sometimes too much but not Milton level), 4 B/C, 5C, 6C. Thoughts other than that I'm wishcasting

 

[Cellar-Door]

Curious since I am a fan and because the Pats spoke to him how you'd grade McCarthy on this scale. My rough go was 1 B/C, 2 B/C, 3C (sometimes too much but not Milton level), 4 B/C, 5C, 6C. Thoughts other than that I'm wishcasting

I haven't watched as many full games of him as some of the others, and well his volume is low. My guess would be:
1 B/C, 2B, 3B (he's got juice in the pocket particularly), 4B/C, 5C (tough time here, his numbers going left are bad, Nate Tice pointed out he thinks it's a fixable issue with foot placement), 6C. He's young, raw, but he has good traits, he's my QB 4 in his own tier.

If i were tiering QBs I think I'd say:
Tier 1- Caleb
Tier 2- Daniels/Maye no order, preference, better player now with rushing advantage is Daniels, Maye has prototype phyisical traits potential rushing upside, bit better arm.
Tier 3- McCarthy... probably needs 1.5-2 years on the bench, but some real upside (only guy combine did something for, his velocity measurements were surprising)
Tier 4- Penix/Nix/Rattler/Pratt... all very different guys all I think flawed and unlikely to be long-term starters, but if one fell to you in the 4th/5th.... sure maybe you grab him and see what happens, plus good backup upside on the cheap for a couple of them. Rattler is pure ceiling play, Pratt I don't know much about, but I know some people who are good at this think he might have more upside than he showed due to injury. Nobody in Tier 4 is a guy I draft first 3 rounds.

 

[bakahump]

I think if trading down is your goal (and I am not specifically opposed to it in the right situation), then the conversation about "WHAT QBs will be there in 25" need to be had.

What Sophs/JRs looked strong this year? What Power Team (al-ah-BAMA) has some stud thats been sitting for 3 years.

I would get loading up the "Talent around the Eventual Guy" this year move......but we have to have some idea that there eventually will be a GUY.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I think if trading down is your goal (and I am not specifically opposed to it in the right situation), then the conversation about "WHAT QBs will be there in 25" need to be had.

What Sophs/JRs looked strong this year? What Power Team (al-ah-BAMA) has some stud thats been sitting for 3 years.

I would get loading up the "Talent around the Eventual Guy" this year move......but we have to have some idea that there eventually will be a GUY.

Problem being next years class is a bunch of guys who didn’t come out this year because they wouldn’t have been in the mix for high picks.

I guess Shadeur Sanders, Cam Ward, Weigman, Ewers, Beck and Allar would be the names to watch. Guys like Dart, Milroe, Leonard, Klubnik and Will Howard might be able to get into the mix.

None of those guys, had they been in this class, would have been first round material IMO. Some of them will probably improve a bit but it’s not a good looking class right now.

Sanders gets a lot of hype because he’s Deion’s kid, but if he was Shadeur Williams, nobody would be hyping him as a 1st round type guy at this point.

That said, it’s likely one or two end up in the first round and I could see someone like Leonard having a meteoric rise like Daniels did this year. But the Pats can’t bank on getting a guy in the 2025 draft. If Daniels/Maye/McCarthy/Nix/Penix are too flawed or too much of a reach, the 2025 crop will probably be worse (either worse prospects falling to the Pats or worse guys to trade boatloads of picks for)

Honestly, I think Rattler or even Michael Pratt would be ahead of a lot of the 2025 “best” prospects.

 

[MikeM]

This lacks imagination. KC traded for Alex smith before trading for Mahomes - it wasn’t accidental for them to be able to have patience and target a QB. Either Wolf and his team can identify a QB or they can’t, and that could happen early or later in a draft. Just saying “well, the consensus says this guy is a top three pick, let’s take a chance on him” has been the Jets strategy since Sanchez and it’s worked out no better for them than if they took other positions and tried to solve QB later in the draft.

Speaking as a decades long and resident Jets fan when it comes to QBs and the draft:

TINSTAAFQ

Generally speaking it can be way too easy imo to miss the forest from the trees when leaning overly heavy into the "Franchise QB" ideology and buzzword appeal. Especially when you are a losing football team looking for answers. Which all too often just leads down a rather shallow and repetative road of desperately chasing after that catch all answer to a core issue that realistically runs a lot deeper then who you decide to put in at QB (which the Jets btw are about to learn the hard way once again in 2024 while effectively going in to the season with no OC)

For instance if you don't feel you can get more then "trash" production out of a league average'ish producer the last 2 years in Brissett after drafting MHJ...shouldn't that at least be reflecting back to whether it ultimately makes any present position sense to be spending that pick on a develpmental QB instead? Because absolutely NOT allowing for that, and instead stressing some min/maxed out need to project out run potential before you even prove capable of being able to adequately walk, does indeed come across as being pretty "Jets'like" in my book.

 

[MikeM]

nt

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

nt

Nose Tackle at 3? He'd better be a Hall-of-Famer.

 

[bsj]

I think Daniels is going to be a stud. Super high on him. I want him at 3. But if he goes number 2, seeing what we are seeing in the WR market right now, a big part of me is thinking go MH Jr at 3, and try to trade back into 1 for McCarthy or Penix.

 

[Curt S Loew]

I think Daniels is going to be a stud. Super high on him. I want him at 3. But if he goes number 2, seeing what we are seeing in the WR market right now, a big part of me is thinking go MH Jr at 3, and try to trade back into 1 for McCarthy or Penix.

The way McCarthy is rising, you're not gonna get him trading down.

I'm still team Maye.

 

[Was (Not Wasdin)]

Nose Tackle at 3? He'd better be a Hall-of-Famer.

Like a Cortez Kennedy type?

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Maye or Daniels, take whoever is there. Every QB prospect is a roll of the dice and both seem good enough to justify a big gamble.

Focus on the things you can control:

1) Establish a context conducive to young QB development - enough surrounding talent, set yourselves up for continuity at OC for a few years.
2) Be ready to fail fast. If you're doing other things right, you should know within two years if your QB is the guy and be willing to pull the plug and recoup some draft value from another team if he isn't.
3) Pray.

Overall, I'm pretty bullish on what the team is doing in terms of #1 and that they have the wisdom for #2. On #3, we used up a lot of goodwill from the football gods in recent years but maybe there's something left.

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

Like a Cortez Kennedy type?

I'd settle for Vincent Wilfork, who will eventually make it to Canton.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

The more I think about it, the more I'm ok with the Pats throwing multiple picks at the QB position. Take one in first two rounds and then a flyer in later rounds. Go into camp with Brissett, Zapped, and two rookie QBs and see where the chips fall.

 

[Ale Xander]

The more I think about it, the more I'm ok with the Pats throwing multiple picks at the QB position. Take one in first two rounds and then a flyer in later rounds. Go into camp with Brissett, Zapped, and two rookie QBs and see where the chips fall.

Brady Cook in round 6 seems inevitable.

 

[tims4wins]

The more I think about it, the more I'm ok with the Pats throwing multiple picks at the QB position. Take one in first two rounds and then a flyer in later rounds. Go into camp with Brissett, Zapped, and two rookie QBs and see where the chips fall.

The potential issue with this approach is that there just aren't that many reps to go around, especially with the new practice rules. I get that Brissett probably doesn't need a ton of reps under AVP, but Zappe doesn't know his system either.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Go into camp with Brissett, Zapped, and two rookie QBs and see where the chips fall.

Don't forget Morgan O'Rourke

 

[Dogman]

Don't forget Morgan O'Rourke

I'm likely missing sarcasm in this one.

You were close though. Nathan Rourke.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

The potential issue with this approach is that there just aren't that many reps to go around, especially with the new practice rules. I get that Brissett probably doesn't need a ton of reps under AVP, but Zappe doesn't know his system either.

While true, the practice squad is open and they can carry 3 QBs. I don't think throwing all your eggs in the #3 basket is very smart. At the end of camp you have multiple options with trades, practice squad, injuries, etc.